The Mental Militia Forums

Special Interest => Money, Commerce, and Taxation => Topic started by: Silver on September 28, 2008, 09:26:17 am

Title: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 28, 2008, 09:26:17 am
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

T.S. Eliot, The Hollow Men (http://www.americanpoems.com/poets/tseliot/1076)

The Federal Reserve statistics (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/) released 9/25/08 shows an increase in the monetary base of 7.65% over the past two weeks.

Part of the big change comes from the introduction of the Asset-backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, which was announced by the Federal Reserve on September 19.  ABCP is a prime ingredient in most money market funds.  The Fed also extended credit to Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch.

This is a lot of new money created from thin air by any standard.  Hyperinflation seems to be our fate.  If they add another 7.65% in the next 2 weeks, the total increase is 15.9%.  Keep that up for 12 months, and the monetary base will explode by 680%. 

History suggests that they won't increase at a constant rate.  After this first jolt, the supply will be left stable for a little while, but sooner rather than later another "stimulus" will be required.  And another, and another.  Eventually, the increase will be continuous, and much larger than 680% per year.

Increases in the money supply is the definition of inflation.  As this money works its way into the economy, those that get it first will benefit.  In this case Wall Street and banks are first in line.  After they get the money, it wil be spent into the rest of the economy.  Prices will go up, rapidly but not evenly across the economy.

As an aid to comprehending how bad this news is, imagine that prices went up by 680% a year for 5 years.

After 1 year, a fancy coffee that used to cost $4 would cost $27.
After 2 years, a fast food lunch will go from $6.50 to $300.
After 3 years, a half-gallon of milk rises from $2.49 to $782.
After 4 years, a $50 tank of gas costs $106,720.
After 5 years, dinner and wine for 2 at a nice restaurant goes from $80 to $1,408,703,200.

If you think I am being too pessimistic, take a look at the tab for dinner for one  (http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/06/04/dinner-for-one-in-zimbabwe/)in Zimbabwe.  in 1980, the Zimbabwean dollar traded close to 1 US dollar.  In 1998, inflation was 32% per year.  Ten years later, it has reached 11,200,000%.

While I can't see the future, the past is whispering that the end may be upon us.  The money for the trillion-dollar "bailout" has to be created, who will be foolish enough to lend to this thoroughly corrupt and bankrupt government?

If you don't own silver and gold, now may be your last chance.  Whether it is next month,  next year, or a few years from now, whatever assets you "own," if measured in dollars, will be gone.

God help us all.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 28, 2008, 10:10:44 am
History suggests that they won't increase at a constant rate.  After this first jolt, the supply will be left stable for a little while, but sooner rather than later another "stimulus" will be required.  And another, and another.  Eventually, the increase will be continuous, and much larger than 680% per year.

One of the things I always wonder about is why and how hyperinflation reaches the "self-feeding" point. Logically, to a non-econ-expert, it seems that once monetary inflation reaches the point where it's visibly damaging people seriously enough to create a huge public outcry (e.g. wiping out pensions in a matter of months, making it impossible for people to buy groceries with their weekly paycheck), the currency-creators would put the brakes on.

Right now, Our Glorious Leaders are telling us (without saying the words) that we must inflate because the alternative is worse. But why isn't there a point where everyone recognizes that the inflation itself -- hyperinflation -- is the worse alternative?

Wikipedia has a long but readable entry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) on hyperinflation -- which opens with a photo whose caption says it all, when it comes to the effects: "1923 Weimar Republic inflation: A German woman feeding a stove with Papiermarks, which burned longer than the amount of firewood people could buy with them."

The article briefly cites reasons government's can't stop producing more paper (e.g. war). But still doesn't really answer the question of why it's not just possible to put on the brakes at some point.

Silver ...?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 28, 2008, 10:39:46 am
The brakes are applied, either by those in power, by those who replace them, or by the collapse of the society.  Generally it happens too late and the currency is completely destroyed.  Sometimes the empire comes down with the currency, as it did with the Romans.  Other times, as in Germany, the presses are halted before the nation collapses, but the effects linger for generations.

The reasons the brakes aren't clamped down sooner is the same reason we have paper money in the first place:
It benefits the ones who control the printing press.

If there is any lesson to be learned from the past few days, it is that "representative democracy" is either dead or so dangerous and stupid that it should be killed.  We can call or write or even visit our "representatives."  They meet in secret, and reach a deal whose effects they do not understand, whose terms they will not read before they vote it into law.  The deal may be opposed by 93% of the public, but our representatives have spoken.  How exactly are we to stop the printing press if overwhelming supermajorities can't stop the passage of laws that demand the press be spun ever faster?

There is absolutely no evidence, no argument, no theory to suggest that printing money leads to prosperity.  The Austrian economists make an iron-clad case that money is the one commodity that does not confer a societal benefit when its quantity is increased.  No one can refute their argument, so the printers resort to ad hominem attacks, or simply ignoring the logic.  Look at "our" candidates.  Neither one of them could discuss business cycle theory for 2 minutes with any undergradute who has attended the Mises University (http://mises.org/events/110).  But there they are, two ignoramuses blathering about failures of the free market and how they will "save" the economy. The fact that they are not ejected from the room whenever they open their mouths speaks volumes about the ignorance and apathy of the American public.

Even in a hyperinflation, especially in a hyperinflation, whomever gets the money first, before prices have risen to match, gets the benefit.  So they keep on printing money. Part of the dynamic of hyperinflations is that once people realize they are being ruined, they start to get rid of the paper as fast as they can.  They will buy anything, at any price.  Paychecks are cashed as soon as possible and spent before the day is out.  Eventually, the rate of price increases can overtake the rate of increase in the money supply.  At that point even the criminals at the printing presses start to lose, and sometimes they will stop the presses.

Why do we tolerate hyperinflation?  To ask that question is to ask: Why do we tolerate government at all?

Quote
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 28, 2008, 11:06:14 am
Silver:

I believe that your definition of inflation is not entirely correct.

You wrote:

Quote
Increases in the money supply is the definition of inflation.

I believe the correct definition is:

"Increases in the money supply in excess of increases in production (aka GDP) is the definition of inflation."

Claire wrote:

Quote
But still doesn't really answer the question of why it's not just possible to put on the brakes at some point.

I believe the reason is that as Silver pointed out,
Quote
As this money works its way into the economy, those that get it first will benefit.  In this case Wall Street and banks are first in line.  After they get the money, it wil be spent into the rest of the economy.  Prices will go up, rapidly but not evenly across the economy.

Lets say you are number one in line to receive the fiat shot and by the time the inflated shot reaches party 100,000,000, prices of goods and services have increased (wrongly called inflation), so that the shot you got will no longer by the "stuff" you need so another "shot" is needed so that you can keep up, actually "get ahead" and purchase those needs. Goods and services have not measurably increased but the amount of Fiat in circulation is increasing causing prices to rise and an imbalance of "purchasing power" across the system.

The amount of write downs that are now occurring in the financial sector will require 'huge" amounts of liquidity injected into the economy with no concurrent increase in production. This is massive inflation.

From Steve Saville's latest newsletter the "Speculative-Investor"

Quote
The latest H.4.1 Report shows that the amount of credit extended by the Fed to banks and other financial corporations grew by $204B during the week ending 24th September. That's a 22% increase in one week! Just to be clear: the Fed extends additional credit -- and grows its balance sheet -- by providing Federal Reserve notes in exchange for some type of security. The security has historically been in the form of Treasuries, but nowadays almost anything can be used as security. In other words, the Fed has just created 204 billion new dollars within the space of only one week.

If they stop pumping liquidity into the market, the financial system will collapse and they will adhere to the old Fiat motto:

"Inflate or die".

In Jim Willie's recent piece, "Corruption, Whispers and Receivership", he aptly points out:

Quote
The plan in my view is the culmination of arrogant criminality, as its architects and promoters are the primary agents for the banking system collapse itself. Only one or two senators in Congress had the stones to confront Treasury Secy Paulson and USFed Chairman Bernanke, calling them on their extreme gall to dictate to Congress on bailout responsibility, when failures by the collection of banksters caused the problems even as their cohorts stand in line for deep financial assistance. The claims by Paulson that taxpayer protection is first and foremost is another total lie. His first priority is to funnel as much public money into Wall Street balance sheets before the grand game is shut down. Another phony call, deep lie, pure nonsense!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/sep242008.html

The road to hyper-inflation has a turnoff called "Deflation", Professor Bernanke in his remarks to the National Economics Club (Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here) made it clear to the world in November 2002 that the D word would not show up on his watch which was all that the Wizards needed to hear of his CV to award him the scepter and keys.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

Gold and silver have historically been protection from the adverse impacts of inflation and especially the "Hyper" type. In reality most useable commodities can perform that function when "cash is trash" but none have the enduring benefits of protection. Another on this Forum stated that "lead" rather than gold and silver was his precious metal and I share that opinion. However, diversity, properly chosen, (beans included) is my preferred protection method.

BR/DS

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 28, 2008, 12:16:11 pm
Thanks, Hollywoodgold and Silver.

It's good to have two well-informed commentators accompanying us as we spin down the drain.

Reminds me of the days when we had both Silver and Shevek here. (Shevek was probably before your time H'gold; but he's remembered fondly, despite the fact that his posts spawned the verb "to shevek" -- as in "you have been sheveked (http://thementalmilitia.com/wiki/Sheveked)" and the noun "fussitarian (http://thementalmilitia.com/wiki/Fussitarian).")

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mr. Bill on September 28, 2008, 12:52:12 pm
Good info in this thread, from people more knowledgable than I.  Just wanted to elaborate on one point -- I'm sure Silver and Hollywoodgold and most of you know this, but, for those who are confused:

The function of inflation is to tax savings.  If you're feeling conspiracy-minded, you could say it's the intended purpose of inflation: to suck the value out of the savings that prudent middle-class and modestly-wealthy people have accumulated during boom times, and redistribute it to a favored few.

Silver has already described the mechanism:

...As this [newly-created] money works its way into the economy, those that get it first will benefit.  In this case Wall Street and banks are first in line.  After they get the money, it wil be spent into the rest of the economy.  Prices will go up, rapidly but not evenly across the economy. ...

I also want to make a contrarian suggestion about hyperinflation.  I believe that what the Powers That Be want is high inflation, not hyperinflation.  Successful parasites don't kill their hosts, but only weaken them.

I know a number of you believe that our evil overlords are motivated only by lust for power, and would gleefully turn us into a giant Zimbabwe just so they could be the boot stamping on a human face forever.  I disagree.  I think money is the major motivator.  If you have enough money, you can buy all the power you need.  So I think the plan is to carefully wring out as much wealth as possible, while keeping the economy running at a satisfactory pace.  And there's also a strong external incentive to do this: China.  Even the power-mad must realize that driving the economy into the ground would put "our side" at a dangerous disadvantage in the global power picture.

So I think the P.T.B. would like to see an official CPI inflation rate in the high single digits.  (The real rate, of course, will be substantially higher.)

This is only what I think they want.  I don't know whether they'll be successful.  I do think there's a nasty risk of very high inflation plus a severe recession, both lasting for a long time.  The big money geniuses have already demonstrated that they can screw up very badly, so there's no guarantee they'll be able to do the "successful parasite" thing.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on September 28, 2008, 02:35:29 pm
No, I don't think that they
would gleefully turn us into a giant Zimbabwe just so they could be the boot stamping on a human face forever. 

But, I do believe it is power lust.  And so do you.
If you have enough money, you can buy all the power you need. 

Money is one of the avenues to power, but the goal is power, none the less.  IMO, it is the avenue of least resistance.  The people are less aroused by a check book than they are by a tank. 

I'm not talking about senators or congress critters or prez or any of the visible "power" folks.  Most of them are content with money.  They don't really understand power, though. 

Sometimes the boot is not actual footwear. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 28, 2008, 03:01:15 pm
Hollywoodgold,

The definition you cite is the monetarist position on inflation.  They believe that so long as the supply of money is increased slowly, no faster than the increase in productivity, prices need not rise and no harm is done.

I prefer the Austrian, or hard-money definition.  For a good discussion about the definition of inflation, including an analysis of the monetarist view, see Defining Inflation (http://mises.org/story/908), by Frank Shostak.

The fundamental problem with the monetarist view is that it still puts mortal men in charge of the printing press.  Who gets to measure productivity?  Who gets to decide when to increase the supply of money.  Who gets the new money first?

Make no mistake, the power to create money at will is the One Ring; it confers awesome power, but inevitably corrupts all who attempt to wield it.

The Austrian, hard-money view is that markets should determine what is to be used as money.  Markets selected gold long ago, for many good reasons.  Even gold money is "inflated" at 1% a year or so, but the increase is from miners wresting the precious metal from the ground at great effort and expense.  The increase is not subject to the whim of politicians, cannot be ramped up to support war or oppression.  It is out of the hands of government, which is as it should be for a free society.

Mr. Bill,

I agree that one of the purposes of inflation is to tax savings, robbing the poor to give to the rich and powerful.  Another purpose is to fund endless war, which is otherwise so damaging and expensive that taxpayers will not stand for it for very long.  There are still other purposes, all evil, all used to serve the state.

I also agree that the masters do not want to kill the host.  It is their arrogance and ignorance that will do that job.  Bernanke fancies himself an expert on the Great Depression, and so he will lead us into a Greater Depression.  He doesn't intend to destroy the empire, but he could play a key role in its downfall. 

Yes, TPTB think they can engineer a high inflation, hold it just long enough to make the present unpayable debts affordable in the still more debased currency, then pull their levers and bring inflation down to their preferred targets of 3-6% a year.  But their knowledge is limited, and they don't have the degree of control they imagine.  In one easily forseen scenario, inflation reaches  20-30% a year.  Japan and China realize what is happening or see it coming, dump a trillion dollars on the market in a matter of days, and ignite a hyperinflation.  Game over.  Or perhaps we annoy the Russians enough that they cut off energy supplies to the West, the price of oil and gas spiral out of control.  Game over.  Or perhaps just enough sheep, 1-5% or so, wake up and pull out of the system by switching to commodity money.  There are too many possibilities to forsee the future, and the levers of power are in the hands of morons.  They don't mean to kill us, but they probably will.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 28, 2008, 03:06:21 pm
Bill:

You wrote:

Quote
Successful parasites don't kill their hosts, but only weaken them.

Your post is well thought out and not as contrarian as you might think. There are many of this view and it is a very likely one. My view is different but not one I can prove.

My view is that the parasite does want to kill the host. My view is the parasites have sought the destruction of the host since the Declaration. I believe that the "King and his men (AKA money changers)" have sought the destruction of the rogue republic since its inception. Lord Lucre will not sit by and watch free men and women build an equitable and honest system of self governance and fair trade and commerce with real savings and investment. Might give others dangerous ideas. So numerous attempts to secure a Bank were undertaken. Andrew JAckson sent them packing and America propspered. With the exception of the Civil War, prices were stable and gold did its traditional job. Then, drooling for the mint, a false flag bank crisis in 1907 opened the door for JP to save the nation and send in his lap dog, Senator Aldrich (Rockefeller son in law) to figure out a solution. With some of the funnest guys in town, that august group of Henry P. Davison, (JP, "agent"/partner), Frank Vanderlip (Rockefellers) and Paul Warburg (House of HAnover, AKA House of Windsor and Rothschild) with Senator Nelson Aldrich, fresh from a trip to the continent to learn all about fractional reserve banking set out for Jekyll Island. The result of course was the FRAct signed by the patsy Wilson.

While I believe you are correct in the issue of not mortally killing the host, but I believe they in fact do desire to culturally, institutionally, morally, monetarily and politically kill the host.

It seems a strange coincidence that Wilson, a Princeton President and brought to power with the help of JP Morgan's efforts was the one to stick the blade in the host and Bernanke, Professor of Economics @ Princeton with the aid of JP Morgan's interests, is now twisting it to induce extreme pain in the host.

These guys never give up...

Anyway, beliefs so not constitute truth so Caveat emptor may apply.

BR/DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: vonuvan on September 28, 2008, 03:20:38 pm
I doubt that the parasite wants to kill the host, rather the lords and vassels just want to work the peasants for everything they can't eat before it's seized, just as in feudal times of old.
The king has been replaced by government, the lords by corporations, the vassels by LEOs and corporate middle management, and the peasants by the working class, being enlarged with middle classers coming back down.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mr. Bill on September 28, 2008, 09:35:33 pm
No, I don't think that they
would gleefully turn us into a giant Zimbabwe just so they could be the boot stamping on a human face forever. 

But, I do believe it is power lust.  And so do you.
If you have enough money, you can buy all the power you need. 

Money is one of the avenues to power, but the goal is power, none the less. ...

Hmm.  Okay, I'll go with that.  Let's say it's a less-barbarian style of power lust.  Or something like that.

I also agree that the masters do not want to kill the host.  It is their arrogance and ignorance that will do that job.  Bernanke fancies himself an expert on the Great Depression, and so he will lead us into a Greater Depression.  He doesn't intend to destroy the empire, but he could play a key role in its downfall. 

I'll agree with that too.  I'm very agreeable this evening.  We're definitely in a dangerous situation.

While I believe you are correct in the issue of not mortally killing the host, but I believe they in fact do desire to culturally, institutionally, morally, monetarily and politically kill the host.

That's an interesting viewpoint.  Do they understand how everything is interlinked?  That they can't selectively kill just the freedom bits and expect all the economic bits to keep running efficiently?  Probably not.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 28, 2008, 10:01:05 pm
No, I don't think that they
would gleefully turn us into a giant Zimbabwe just so they could be the boot stamping on a human face forever. 

But, I do believe it is power lust.  And so do you.
If you have enough money, you can buy all the power you need. 

Money is one of the avenues to power, but the goal is power, none the less. ...

Hmm.  Okay, I'll go with that.  Let's say it's a less-barbarian style of power lust.  Or something like that.

I also agree that the masters do not want to kill the host.  It is their arrogance and ignorance that will do that job.  Bernanke fancies himself an expert on the Great Depression, and so he will lead us into a Greater Depression.  He doesn't intend to destroy the empire, but he could play a key role in its downfall. 

I'll agree with that too.  I'm very agreeable this evening.  We're definitely in a dangerous situation.

While I believe you are correct in the issue of not mortally killing the host, but I believe they in fact do desire to culturally, institutionally, morally, monetarily and politically kill the host.

That's an interesting viewpoint.  Do they understand how everything is interlinked?  That they can't selectively kill just the freedom bits and expect all the economic bits to keep running efficiently?  Probably not.


Bill:

I think they fully understand the interrelationships.

They control massive foundations, universities, Department Chairs, research institutes, banks, corporations, museums and sit on multiple interlocking boards of directors. Their job is to know and control the intellectual resources of the nation and they are doing a pretty damn good job at this heineous under-taking.

DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 28, 2008, 10:26:33 pm
That's an interesting viewpoint.  Do they understand how everything is interlinked?  That they can't selectively kill just the freedom bits and expect all the economic bits to keep running efficiently?  Probably not.

I think they fully understand the interrelationships.

They control massive foundations, universities, Department Chairs, research institutes, banks, corporations, museums and sit on multiple interlocking boards of directors. Their job is to know and control the intellectual resources of the nation and they are doing a pretty damn good job at this heineous under-taking.

I have  differ with you, Hollywoodgold, and agree with Mr. Bill's speculation.

You're absolutely correct that our would-be masters understand the institutions and systems that they control. But those institutions all have a lot in common and all could come under the heading of "We've got hammers, therefore all we see are nails."

Sure, the men and women currently pulling off their coup d'etat in D.C. and NY understand large, top-down institutions (hammers). Sure they understand how to manipulate public opinion (nails). But look how chronically limited their worldview is. They always have only one answer to every, single problem: more government, more laws, more fiat currency, more orders, more police, more regulations, more centralization.

Sure, that mindset works -- for the moment -- to give them more power and control. But they've got tunnel vision. There are SO many more interrelationships they're missing -- interrelationships that are simply outside their ken.

How much of a grasp do they have of chaos theory? Of the way free markets/black markets/gray markets work? Do they understand that when they restrict freedom here, freedom flows there? Do they understand the crucial difference between political apathy and a deep, abiding, seething loathing -- both of which look the same until some key moment is reached?

Do they understand that a new invention or new idea could come along tomorrow that would knock all the underpinnings out from all their systems? Do they understand exactly what causes every empire to fall? Do they truly know how much inflation they can get away with before everything spins out of their control? I don't think so. After all, these are the folks who, 10 years or so ago, all bought into Francis Fukuyama's notion of "the end of history." (And believed the end of history was embodied in their glorious selves.)

I think they understand the world they've created and inhabit. But they totally miss, and misunderstand what a tiny fragment of reality that  is. I think the factors they don't understand -- the forces of nature and humanity and chance -- are going to bite them.

It's just too damn bad we'll get bitten, too.

My $.02.

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 28, 2008, 11:05:41 pm
That's an interesting viewpoint.  Do they understand how everything is interlinked?  That they can't selectively kill just the freedom bits and expect all the economic bits to keep running efficiently?  Probably not.

I think they fully understand the interrelationships.

They control massive foundations, universities, Department Chairs, research institutes, banks, corporations, museums and sit on multiple interlocking boards of directors. Their job is to know and control the intellectual resources of the nation and they are doing a pretty damn good job at this heineous under-taking.

I have  differ with you, Hollywoodgold, and agree with Mr. Bill's speculation.

You're absolutely correct that our would-be masters understand the institutions and systems that they control. But those institutions all have a lot in common and all could come under the heading of "We've got hammers, therefore all we see are nails."

Sure, the men and women currently pulling off their coup d'etat in D.C. and NY understand large, top-down institutions (hammers). Sure they understand how to manipulate public opinion (nails). But look how chronically limited their worldview is. They always have only one answer to every, single problem: more government, more laws, more fiat currency, more orders, more police, more regulations, more centralization.

Sure, that mindset works -- for the moment -- to give them more power and control. But they've got tunnel vision. There are SO many more interrelationships they're missing -- interrelationships that are simply outside their ken.

How much of a grasp do they have of chaos theory? Of the way free markets/black markets/gray markets work? Do they understand that when they restrict freedom here, freedom flows there? Do they understand the crucial difference between political apathy and a deep, abiding, seething loathing -- both of which look the same until some key moment is reached?

Do they understand that a new invention or new idea could come along tomorrow that would knock all the underpinnings out from all their systems? Do they understand exactly what causes every empire to fall? Do they truly know how much inflation they can get away with before everything spins out of their control? I don't think so. After all, these are the folks who, 10 years or so ago, all bought into Francis Fukuyama's notion of "the end of history." (And believed the end of history was embodied in their glorious selves.)

I think they understand the world they've created and inhabit. But they totally miss, and misunderstand what a tiny fragment of reality that  is. I think the factors they don't understand -- the forces of nature and humanity and chance -- are going to bite them.

It's just too damn bad we'll get bitten, too.

My $.02.

Claire

Claire:

Of course you may be correct. I suppose the simple answer is yes, I think they know. The men and women in DC haven't a clue with respect to the strategy. I am a proponent of alternate market strategies, precious metals are an important component thereof. 


Quote
o they understand that a new invention or new idea could come along tomorrow that would knock all the underpinnings out from all their systems?
Al Gore is their idea wonk so they believe they do have a grasp.

Quote
I think the factors they don't understand -- the forces of nature and humanity and chance -- are going to bite them.

My own sense is that they do not understand the power of creativity as they are inherently destructive, So I suppose the answer is no, they don't get it at that level but they do get it at the level society seems to be operating at, currently anyway. My post to Bill was intended to raise the point that they are armed and dangerous and know the game being played better than "society", not necessarily selected members therefrom. Knowing what and who they control is essential to deflecting their assault. This is my belief. I believe that random theory, unrecognized and misunderstood, represents little more than data, not understanding and therefore not a benefit.

You may be right and I may have "missed it" but this is my view.

Quote
Do they understand that a new invention or new idea could come along tomorrow that would knock all the underpinnings out from all their systems? Do they understand exactly what causes every empire to fall? Do they truly know how much inflation they can get away with before everything spins out of their control? I don't think so.

On the invention point, I believe they do. On the inflation point, maybe. We analyze inflation as though it is not desirable but for "them", it seems desirable as they rev it up on every fiat currency until it destructs and then they seem to move on. (Kill the host and move on, well sort of).

Perhaps an equally relevant question is whether their acts, intending control and dominance, will be counteracted by circumstances resulting form beneficial human acts and experiences in pursuit of liberty and freedom?

I believe they can and live my life accordingly. The essence of my post was that they are armed, informed and have had many years to prepare even though they may be in preparation for a battle easily lost. Easy should not be assumed to be inevitable, not even in random circumstances.

Just my view...

DS


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 29, 2008, 07:21:55 am
The essence of my post was that they are armed, informed and have had many years to prepare even though they may be in preparation for a battle easily lost.

On that, we agree. Our would-be masters are skilled at what they know. And they're very dangerous even and perhaps especially when they make mistakes.

LOL, but if Al Gore is the best they can do for an invention wonk, then there's hope for us yet!

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: EwB on September 29, 2008, 09:37:58 am
Trust me, anyone who is working on a world changing invention on their own ( no federal grant money, corporate sponsor, or major university endowment ) will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   Hypothetically of course.

EwB
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on September 29, 2008, 05:00:58 pm
Quote
will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   

That woud depend upon whether it was released with the intention of making money......or whether it was released with the intention of causing earth shattering change......

The first would be easilly controlled, the second is completely uncontrollable..............

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 29, 2008, 05:11:55 pm
Hollywoodgold,

The definition you cite is the monetarist position on inflation.  They believe that so long as the supply of money is increased slowly, no faster than the increase in productivity, prices need not rise and no harm is done.

I prefer the Austrian, or hard-money definition.  For a good discussion about the definition of inflation, including an analysis of the monetarist view, see Defining Inflation (http://mises.org/story/908), by Frank Shostak.

The fundamental problem with the monetarist view is that it still puts mortal men in charge of the printing press.  Who gets to measure productivity?  Who gets to decide when to increase the supply of money.  Who gets the new money first?

Make no mistake, the power to create money at will is the One Ring; it confers awesome power, but inevitably corrupts all who attempt to wield it.

The Austrian, hard-money view is that markets should determine what is to be used as money.  Markets selected gold long ago, for many good reasons.  Even gold money is "inflated" at 1% a year or so, but the increase is from miners wresting the precious metal from the ground at great effort and expense.  The increase is not subject to the whim of politicians, cannot be ramped up to support war or oppression.  It is out of the hands of government, which is as it should be for a free society.

Mr. Bill,

I agree that one of the purposes of inflation is to tax savings, robbing the poor to give to the rich and powerful.  Another purpose is to fund endless war, which is otherwise so damaging and expensive that taxpayers will not stand for it for very long.  There are still other purposes, all evil, all used to serve the state.

I also agree that the masters do not want to kill the host.  It is their arrogance and ignorance that will do that job.  Bernanke fancies himself an expert on the Great Depression, and so he will lead us into a Greater Depression.  He doesn't intend to destroy the empire, but he could play a key role in its downfall. 

Yes, TPTB think they can engineer a high inflation, hold it just long enough to make the present unpayable debts affordable in the still more debased currency, then pull their levers and bring inflation down to their preferred targets of 3-6% a year.  But their knowledge is limited, and they don't have the degree of control they imagine.  In one easily forseen scenario, inflation reaches  20-30% a year.  Japan and China realize what is happening or see it coming, dump a trillion dollars on the market in a matter of days, and ignite a hyperinflation.  Game over.  Or perhaps we annoy the Russians enough that they cut off energy supplies to the West, the price of oil and gas spiral out of control.  Game over.  Or perhaps just enough sheep, 1-5% or so, wake up and pull out of the system by switching to commodity money.  There are too many possibilities to forsee the future, and the levers of power are in the hands of morons.  They don't mean to kill us, but they probably will.

Peace,

Silver

Silver:

I think we agree on the Austrian School but I wasn't suggesting that the money created should be fiat. The long term rate of increase in the supply of gold has been roughly 3%/year (if I remember correctly). As long as that supply did not increase at a rate greater than the GDP, prices would remain stable. In the event that the supply of gold increased at a rate greater than GDP, that would cause an increase in the prices of goods and services or a decrease in the value of gold. The reverse is also true. This dynamic assumes an absence of gold supply manipulation to counter supply and demand market forces.

BR/DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: EwB on September 29, 2008, 07:33:31 pm
Quote
will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   

That woud depend upon whether it was released with the intention of making money......or whether it was released with the intention of causing earth shattering change......

The first would be easilly controlled, the second is completely uncontrollable..............



if it is what I think it is from who I think it is, money is not the motivation.....and  I have said enough

EwB
 









Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Joel on September 30, 2008, 07:18:23 am
Hm.

I've stayed out of this, though reading with interest, because you guys clearly know something about it and I do not and I will not counsel my superiors.  But Occam's Razor calls.

"Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence." - Napoleon

Maybe, at the end of the day, this is just hubris on the part of silly little people with power.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: EwB on September 30, 2008, 09:42:09 am
Hm.

I've stayed out of this, though reading with interest, because you guys clearly know something about it and I do not and I will not counsel my superiors.  But Occam's Razor calls.

"Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence." - Napoleon

Maybe, at the end of the day, this is just hubris on the part of silly little people with power.

You are right     Greed + Stupidity = A lot of what we see here.....
Just thinking about the complexity of it all and what it takes to idiot proof something, you have to wonder why it didn't break sooner.


EwB
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on September 30, 2008, 10:59:23 am
Sounds an aweful lot like the beginning of Patriots...dont you think?

And, I don't know about most of you but i'm having a heck of a time buying silver in oz. at any quantitiy without paying a huge markup.  Any currenlty good suggestions out there?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 30, 2008, 12:38:19 pm
Sounds an aweful lot like the beginning of Patriots...dont you think?

And, I don't know about most of you but i'm having a heck of a time buying silver in oz. at any quantitiy without paying a huge markup.  Any currenlty good suggestions out there?

SharpS:

This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

A good source of AG is:

http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Coins_Rolls__Bags.aspx

The premium is very widespread.

BR/DS




Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 30, 2008, 01:05:34 pm
This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

Thanks for the link, Hollywoodgold. Good article. But my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on September 30, 2008, 01:17:15 pm
This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

Thanks for the link, Hollywoodgold. Good article. But my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Claire

Claire:

I believe the answer is that the spot market fixing is done in London and New York and are based on trading on metals exchanges. The current shortage is in the retail market, aka the street. The supply demand for COMEX bars is currently adequate. That is the reason the ETF's are still showing significant gains in inventory. Were they trying to buy say, Kruggerands, they would be SOL.

The question I have is whether the street shortage of retail silver presages a transition from "Contango" to "backwardation". If so, prices should take off to the upside. My guess is that the difference is just misplaced resources and the premiums being paid are the compensating factor adjusting supply and demand.

BR/DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 30, 2008, 02:04:59 pm
my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Well, the spot price did go up.  It rocketed from $740 or so to nearly $900 in less than 2 weeks, 9/11 to 9/23/2008. 

The article touches on the most likely explanation: There is plenty of gold if you want to buy a 400 oz bar for $350,000 or so.  There's plenty of 1000 oz silver bars as well.  What is missing is coins, small bars, and jewelery stock, typically wires and sheets. 

IF the market works freely, the higher premiums for these smaller items will cause some of those large bars to come out of the Comex warehouses and go to fabricators, who will turn them into blanks for coins, small bars, wire, etc. 

The only evidence I've seen of manipulation is some rather extreme concentration of short positions by 2 or 3 banks in silver and gold futures markets.  I find that suspicious but not proof, but people like Theodore Butler think it is.  His article The Smoking Gun (http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php) is worth a read.

If there is manipulation, it is good news for us small fry, as the purpose of the manipulation is to keep the price down, rather than jack it up, like people like to accuse oil companies.  If there is manipulation, it is done via the paper futures market.  But if there is manipulation, all it takes is for a few of those people wealthy enough to buy multiple big bars to buy futures contracts, then demand delivery.  These could be wealthy investors anxious for a bargain, or fabricators of coin blanks and wire looking to make profits on the large premiums presently in place.  In either case, the manipulation ends pretty quickly.

So the price IS soaring, in the form of higher than normal premiums on coins and small bars.  That will make metal flow from the large bars to fabricators.  This takes some time, things don't happen overnight, but it certainly will happen.

Manipulation arguments aside, the soaring demand for small coins and bars is a very good sign.  It means that ordinary people are re-discovering gold and silver.  It is no longer the exclusive provenance of central banks, bullion banks, and the hyper-wealthy.  This is very good news for sound money and the freedom that comes with it.

The fed and the government have method, motive, means, and opportunity to manipulate the markets, and not just gold and silver.  Notice the deafening silence regarding calls for more oversight of the fed, or the Plunge Protection Team aka the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.  I have no doubt that these criminals have interfered in the markets from time to time.  What I doubt is their ability to maintain significant distortions.  Look about you; even the largest credit bubble in the history of mankind is popping right before our eyes.  Markets cannot be fooled forever.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 30, 2008, 07:31:06 pm
Well, the spot price did go up.  It rocketed from $740 or so to nearly $900 in less than 2 weeks, 9/11 to 9/23/2008. 

True -- though $900 is still less than gold was selling for last spring when demand was apparently not as severe. And silver has fallen these last few days as retail buyers have been fruitlessly seeking it.

Quote
The article touches on the most likely explanation: There is plenty of gold if you want to buy a 400 oz bar for $350,000 or so.  There's plenty of 1000 oz silver bars as well.  What is missing is coins, small bars, and jewelery stock, typically wires and sheets. 

IF the market works freely, the higher premiums for these smaller items will cause some of those large bars to come out of the Comex warehouses and go to fabricators, who will turn them into blanks for coins, small bars, wire, etc. 

Hollywoodgold wrote:
Quote
I believe the answer is that the spot market fixing is done in London and New York and are based on trading on metals exchanges. The current shortage is in the retail market, aka the street. The supply demand for COMEX bars is currently adequate. That is the reason the ETF's are still showing significant gains in inventory. Were they trying to buy say, Kruggerands, they would be SOL.

But yes, that makes sense. So you're both saying that only certain varieties of gold or silver that are unavailable, and that the rising premium is the retail means of boosting the price on those.

Okay, makes a certain amount of sense now ...

Thank you both.

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on September 30, 2008, 07:48:38 pm
From the Financial Times:

Quote
Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen.

Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich.

“There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf8246aa-8f13-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on September 30, 2008, 11:31:12 pm
Claire,

Thanks for the link. I also think this part is a little ominous:
Quote
Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said.
(emphasis mine)

If the well connected are getting into physical bullion for safety, it's a vote of no confidence in the
existing financial system. This really is beginning to look like the beginning of Rawles' novel Patriots.

Bear


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2008, 03:42:10 am
Claire,

You are most welcome, and thanks for your link.  That article was the first I've seen that claimed significant movement of gold bars out of the LBMA vaults.  Getting a bar into the LBMA vaults or Comex warehouses is expensive; once inside, they normally stay there.  The article was also the first to mention people paying a $25/oz premium to "secure scarce gold bars."

Bars may be leaving the vaults for the reason I posited above: to be made into coins and other forms that are in higher demand.  But if premiums for physical gold persist for everything from bullion coins to good delivery bars (http://www.lbma.org.uk/delivery/definitn), it suggests that the price fixing system is failing.

London price fixes are somewhat closer tied to physical metal than New York prices, as the 5 traders swap good delivery bars with each other until a price is found where no more trades are made.  New York has a spot price, but most of the trading is in gold futures.  If one has to pay a hefty premium to get a good delivery bar delivered, there is something wrong with the price fixing system.

While some will call this evidence of manipulation, it is also consistent with the early stages of a hyperinflation, where people pay premiums to trade paper money for tangible goods.  The price system for pretty much everything breaks down in a hyperinflation.

That's why I named this thread "This is the way the world ends."  World endings tend to be chaotic, but they are not always bad.  A world that uses honest money will find it much more difficult to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of very few, to maintain monstrous armies and weapons of mass destruction, to wage war, and to steal from the thrifty and the poor to give to the rich.  There is hope at the ending of this world.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on October 01, 2008, 09:24:37 am
A world that uses honest money will find it much more difficult to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of very few, to maintain monstrous armies and weapons of mass destruction, to wage war, and to steal from the thrifty and the poor to give to the rich. 

I guess you're saying its easier for TPTB to intercept the electonic 1's and 0's than it is to send the exchequer around to each hovel to shake down the peasants for their silver coins. It's also much safer for the health of the exchequer!  ^_^

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2008, 10:27:28 am
The power of paper money is that TPTB don't even need to send the tax collectors around.  Just inflate the currency, and wealth is transferred from savers and the poor into the control of the rich and powerful.  Wars can be funded without taxing the public for the full cost.  Its a gigantic money pump. Electronics aren't required, it works just as well for Zimbabwe dollars as for digital bits.  In fact, the Zimbabwe hyperinflation took a hit when the manufacturer of the paper refused to ship any more. Gold breaks this inflationary money pump; that's why governments hate gold.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gridboy on October 01, 2008, 10:37:49 am
The power of paper money is that TPTB don't even need to send the tax collectors around.  Just inflate the currency, and wealth is transferred from savers and the poor into the control of the rich and powerful.  Wars can be funded without taxing the public for the full cost.  Its a gigantic money pump...

I was just thinking about inflation as a tax method.  Get rid of the IRS and just have a fixed printing of money
each year to fund the federal budget.  Government gets 100% tax compliance, no enforcement cost.
The Keynesians would love it, since it would provide a strong incentive to spend money, rather than hold on to it.

gridboy
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 01, 2008, 12:08:08 pm
Governments need both taxes and inflation.  Inflation is a blunt instrument, it robs everyone and gives only to those at the highest levels of power. Taxes can be directed by politicians; that is why the IRS code is so complex and contradictory.  Taxes are aimed at the most productive people, who might otherwise be smart enough to escape the worst ravages of inflation by keeping their wealth in assets.  Last but by no means least, taxes help keep the charade going.  Most people see that the government collects taxes and spends money; the "deficits" are explained away as "money we owe ourselves" or "covered by borrowing" or some other transparent lie.  If there were no taxes flowing in while money was spent, more people might start asking unwelcome questions about where money comes from.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: purple kitty on October 01, 2008, 03:40:27 pm
A very well off relative of mine is heavily invested in physical gold and silver, so I can confirm that some wealthy people are buying.  His eyes lit up when I told him I was also invested in silver and he learned that I shared his general opinion on the state of the nation.

But I gave him a scowl when he told me he had some of his metal in a safe deposit box.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: freewoman on October 01, 2008, 04:02:15 pm
But I gave him a scowl when he told me he had some of his metal in a safe deposit box.

As well you should have!  But maybe the portion in the safe deposit box is his "sacrificial lamb"--if the Depression-era scenario is repeated, and gold and silver are once again confiscated, he could turn in the safe deposit box amount and claim to have given them his all.  Ya never know. . . .
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: purple kitty on October 02, 2008, 02:48:46 pm
But I gave him a scowl when he told me he had some of his metal in a safe deposit box.

As well you should have!  But maybe the portion in the safe deposit box is his "sacrificial lamb"--if the Depression-era scenario is repeated, and gold and silver are once again confiscated, he could turn in the safe deposit box amount and claim to have given them his all.  Ya never know. . . .
I don't think that's his plan... I did, however, convince someone this morning to remove all of her valuables from a safe deposit box (in a NationalCity bank).  She said it included *old* gold coins and nice jewelry.  I said, "I don't know what's going to happen, but there is always the possibility that deposit boxes will get seized if it gets really bad."  Finally *someone* listens to me!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on October 02, 2008, 03:09:35 pm
Quote
I don't think that's his plan... I did, however, convince someone this morning to remove all of her valuables from a safe deposit box (in a NationalCity bank).  She said it included *old* gold coins and nice jewelry.  I said, "I don't know what's going to happen, but there is always the possibility that deposit boxes will get seized if it gets really bad."  Finally *someone* listens to me!

Good for you, Purple Kitty!

In several states, the State has been leaning on banks to uncover 'abandoned' safe deposit boxes so that the State can seize the contents. Only recently has the top finance guy in California said they have to knock that off and actually make sure the person is really gone first. There were a number of stories where people who had active accounts at a bank had their safe deposit boxes declared 'abandoned' because they had no record of them accessing them recently.

Even after proving that they weren't dead yet, they STILL had a problem getting their stuff back. Money get's put into the State's pocket, valuables get auctioned off.

Bear

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: purple kitty on October 03, 2008, 06:48:21 am
Ah, right, Bear.. I had forgotten about that story.. Do you happen to have a link handy from a reputable source?  I'll print the article and give to my friend and send it to my cousin and remind him to empty it.  I'm thinking the best source is from a major newspaper or well-known news site.

Nevermind... Found it. (http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4832471&page=1)  I think this will work nicely.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on October 03, 2008, 12:15:01 pm

Thanks for finding the link, Purple Kitty. I just emailed it to all my
family and friends (who aren't on this forum). My guess is that
with the banks and State governments in a tightening financial
squeeze, this is going to increase, not stop.

Bear

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lisa Aenne on October 03, 2008, 02:43:49 pm
http://finance.comcast.net/www/news.html?x=http://76.96.38.13/data/news/2008/10/03/1077698.xml

Do not fear, the House just voted to accept the Senate amended bill for the $700 Billion bail out---- the film industry in Puerto Rico and the makers of children's wooden arrows are in the clear.  I cannot say the same for the eyes of said children who use the arrows.

Quote
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to begin using his new authority quickly, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank would work closely with the administration.


 :BangHead:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on October 03, 2008, 03:04:40 pm
I had hoped, when the House voted the first bailout bill down, that it was the beginning of a non-violent revolution.  Once again my optimistic mind had succumbed to hope over experience.

I predict hyperinflation.  The revolution may not be non-violent.

Put your gold and silver in your underwear drawer and keep your powder dry.

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on October 03, 2008, 06:14:25 pm
Apropos of this topic, I've ordered "It Can't Happen Here" by Sinclair Lewis (not a great book, but applicable) and "The Black Obelisk" by Erich Maria Remarque.  I used to have both...and may still, but most of my books are still in boxes and I need to reread these books NOW.

Might make sense to reread Eliot as well. 

I have a major fear of gas rationing.  Anybody else had these thoughts?

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Nedda of the Hill on October 06, 2008, 02:58:12 pm
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/news/economy/fed_loans/index.htm

Fed pumps billions more into banks:
Central bank doubles to $300 billion the amount it will loan banks. Loans could reach $900 billion by end of year.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 06, 2008, 03:34:07 pm

{sound of seatbelt latch ....} CLICK
{he picks up his tinfoil and cardboard  Evil Ray Protection Shield}
Here we go kids ....  hang on !  :tinfoil:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: iloilo on October 06, 2008, 03:44:43 pm
Apropos of this topic, I've ordered "It Can't Happen Here" by Sinclair Lewis (not a great book, but applicable) and "The Black Obelisk" by Erich Maria Remarque.  I used to have both...and may still, but most of my books are still in boxes and I need to reread these books NOW.

Might make sense to reread Eliot as well. 

I have a major fear of gas rationing.  Anybody else had these thoughts?

Spatter


A bit concerned about gas rationing: getting a new mountain bike this week, and also stocking/renewing some gas supplies for the chainsaws, etc.
ff
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 06, 2008, 09:42:03 pm
Apropos of this topic, I've ordered "It Can't Happen Here" by Sinclair Lewis (not a great book, but applicable) and "The Black Obelisk" by Erich Maria Remarque.  I used to have both...and may still, but most of my books are still in boxes and I need to reread these books NOW.

Might make sense to reread Eliot as well. 

I have a major fear of gas rationing.  Anybody else had these thoughts?

Spatter

Matthew Simmons recently stated that conditions exist where we could be within 3 days of a gas crisis if supplies were disrupted. In that event, JIT (Just in time) supplies would break down and food would have difficulty making it to market. So, yes, others have had those/these thoughts.

DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lisa Aenne on October 07, 2008, 03:50:02 pm
I've been worried about a gas crisis, too.  Regarding food supplies, I have a suspicion that interruptions of those supplies are already occurring at some level.  I went to the store yesterday to get some fresh fruits. veggies and eggs.  When I saw the state of the shelves (so many were empty and next to empty), I decided to stock up some more on the basics. I've been doing that for the last few weeks when I have some extra cash I could somewhat spare. I spent way more than I'd planned on, but it's all in food and supplies like tp that'll hold us over for a while if need be.

The stuff being wiped were inexpensive survival type stuff:  cans of tomato products, dehydrated potatoes, crackers, cans of tuna, mac and cheese dinners, flour and sugar, chicken, pasta, duraflame logs, canning supplies.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on October 07, 2008, 04:43:35 pm
The aspect that concerns me is the possibility that we'd all have to line up and "prove" to some government flunkie that we "need" a certain amount of gasoline per week or month. 

Talk about control!

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on October 07, 2008, 04:57:56 pm
Doesn't this gas crisis play into the hands of Iran and Russia?  All they have to do is slow down the supply 10-15% and the rest of our economy is toast. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 07, 2008, 05:59:43 pm
Iran is nothing. The real worry is China. China holds more of our debt that anyone (except England, I believe). What if they sell our debt en masse? We're toast. Or even if they just stopped buying our debt. We're toast.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: vonuvan on October 07, 2008, 07:42:32 pm
IMHO, the only way China would quit buying our debt is if we stop buying their exports.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 07, 2008, 09:05:32 pm
I've been worried about a gas crisis, too.  Regarding food supplies, I have a suspicion that interruptions of those supplies are already occurring at some level.  I went to the store yesterday to get some fresh fruits. veggies and eggs.  When I saw the state of the shelves (so many were empty and next to empty), I decided to stock up some more on the basics. I've been doing that for the last few weeks when I have some extra cash I could somewhat spare. I spent way more than I'd planned on, but it's all in food and supplies like tp that'll hold us over for a while if need be.

The stuff being wiped were inexpensive survival type stuff:  cans of tomato products, dehydrated potatoes, crackers, cans of tuna, mac and cheese dinners, flour and sugar, chicken, pasta, duraflame logs, canning supplies.

LA:

What you describe on the grocery shelves is very similar to what occurred during IKE on the Gulf Coast. Cheap, easy to prepare, often pre-prepared foods requiring low energy input typically with a high sugar and/or carb level disappeared quickly. I thought this to be the case because of the large number of people leaving cities and driving through to camp grounds and other make-shift environs. I am a little surprised to hear you describe these conditions today. What region of the country are you residing in?

Very interesting.

BR/DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 08, 2008, 09:29:10 am
The central banks of the world are coordinating a 0.5% rate cut, putting the loan rate to their friends well below the rate of inflation.  They are literally paying (some) people to borrow money.

The central banks are circling the wagons. Their citizens are in the center.  Now they are firing hyperinflationary bullets inwards.
British Treasury will make at least $437 billion available to banks. (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/08/business/09britain-new.php)

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: vonuvan on October 08, 2008, 07:56:56 pm
The central banks of the world are coordinating a 0.5% rate cut, putting the loan rate to their friends well below the rate of inflation.  They are literally paying (some) people to borrow money.

The central banks are circling the wagons. Their citizens are in the center.  Now they are firing hyperinflationary bullets inwards.
British Treasury will make at least $437 billion available to banks. (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/08/business/09britain-new.php)

Peace,

Silver

The Aussies must have missed the meeting, they did a full percent, and are expecting the banks to pass it all on, which none are.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 11, 2008, 08:42:48 am
The latest Federal Reserve H3 report shows another giant leap in the monetary base, another 8.2% in the past 2 weeks, on top of the 7.65% increase Sept 10-24.

Lew Rockwell blogged
Quote
It's the end of the world as we know it (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023441.html)
"And I feel fine." Well, not quite. The pleasures of saying "I told you so" have always been overrated, but they're non-existent these days as the parasite politicians and central bankers, and their willing enablers, non-Misesian economists, wreck the world. Then they use the wreckage as the excuse for vaster inflationism, fascism, and socialism. But in the maelstrom, we have a job, aside from protecting ourselves and our families to the best of our abilities. That job is to teach the truth about the crimes and consequences of the state, the empire, central banking, and fractional reserves. The truth is the necessary foundation of the restoration
.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 11, 2008, 08:56:58 am
A touch of encouraging news. A FoxNews poll shows that not only do a majority  continue to oppose the Big Bailout, but that:

Quote
A majority of voters (53 percent) thinks the bailout package shows that government leaders "have no idea what they’re doing." More remarkably, only 6 percent believes officials "know exactly what they’re doing and how the rescue plan will affect the economy." While the continued low ratings of both the president and Congress indicate a lack of confidence in Washington, these results are nevertheless staggering.

and

Quote
A 53 percent majority thinks government involvement is not part of the solution at all, but part of the problem. This view is more intense among Republicans (69 percent) and independents (59 percent)—though a large minority of Democrats (40 percent) also views government involvement in a negative light.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,436041,00.html

Other encouraging news in the poll, as well. If the results mean anything, support for limited government may be growing, even among Dems.

I'm actually surprised that a whopping 6 percent thinks the fedgov knows what it's doing in this case.  :rolleyes:

The loathing of Rs for the program of their own party also presages interesting things for the future. Might the R's, deservedly, go the way of the Whigs?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on October 11, 2008, 10:33:09 am
Quote
I'm actually surprised that a whopping 6 percent thinks the fedgov knows what it's doing in this case.

I'd be curious to know what percent of those polled suffer from senility or other dementia...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 11, 2008, 10:45:41 am
Hans Sennholz has an article this morning (http://mises.org/story/2347) linked from LewRockwell.com that perports to explain the German hyperinflation of the 1920s.

It's an interesting enough article about part of the impact and the genesis of the catastrophe. And it's fascinating to see how "experts" of the day tried to claim that no inflation was actually under way!

Unfortunately, I still don't get something very basic and Sennholz doesn't help. I see how non-hyper inflation begins and grows. But despite Wikipedia, Sennholz, and the econ mavens of TMM, I don't grok how garden-variety, sneak-the-money-out-of-their-pockets inflation goes that wildly out of control.

Can anybody explain the moment, the mechanism, the why, the wherefore of that moment when inflation goes totally mad? It's obvious to me that garden-variety inflation like we've seen in the last 95 years is very deliberate, very carefully planned. Hyperinflation is clearly just mad desperation. So what is the trigger factor? How do those oh-so deliberate money masters become panicked servants of the printing press?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: vonuvan on October 11, 2008, 11:45:52 am
I would think that all price inflation would lag the causative currency inflation by a certain amount of time, but I'd be blind guessing as to how to judge the lag, or its factors.
IMHO, all value is safest held in gold and silver, in actual possession, until another commodity is needed.
There is probably a bunch of stuff in the LRC archive about this.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 11, 2008, 11:46:10 am
Can anybody explain the moment, the mechanism, the why, the wherefore of that moment when inflation goes totally mad? It's obvious to me that garden-variety inflation like we've seen in the last 95 years is very deliberate, very carefully planned. Hyperinflation is clearly just mad desperation. So what is the trigger factor? How do those oh-so deliberate money masters become panicked servants of the printing press.

Mises has a good explanation in Human Action (http://mises.org/humanaction/chap20sec6.asp#p562)

The breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened [p. 562] by the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from further expansion of credit. The boom could continue only as long as the banks were ready to grant freely all those credits which business needed for the execution of its excessive projects, utterly disagreeing with the real state of the supply of factors of production and the valuations of the consumers. These illusory plans, suggested by the falsification of business calculation as brought about by the cheap money policy, can be pushed forward only if new credits can be obtained at gross market rates which are artificially lowered below the height they would reach at an unhampered loan market. It is this margin that gives them the deceptive appearance of profitability. The change in the banks' conduct does not create the crisis. It merely makes visible the havoc spread by the faults which business has committed in the boom period.

Neither could the boom last endlessly if the banks were to cling stubbornly to their expansionist policies. Any attempt to substitute additional fiduciary media for nonexisting capital goods (namely, the quantities p3 and p4) is doomed to failure. If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders. However, as a rule, the banks in the past have not pushed things to extremes. They have become alarmed at a date when the final catastrophe was still far away. [8]

As soon as the afflux of additional fiduciary media comes to an end, the airy castle of the boom collapses. The entrepreneurs must restrict their activities because they lack the funds for their continuation on the exaggerated scale. Prices drop suddenly because these distressed firms try to obtain cash by throwing inventories on the market dirt cheap. Factories are closed, the continuation of construction projects in progress is halted, workers are discharged. As on the one hand many firms badly need money in order to avoid bankruptcy, and on the other hand no firm any longer enjoys confidence, the entrepreneurial component in the gross market rate of interest jumps to an excessive height. [p. 563]

Accidental institutional and psychological circumstances generally turn the outbreak of the crisis into a panic. The description of these awful events can be left to the historians. It is not the task of catallactic theory to depict in detail the calamities of panicky days and weeks and to dwell upon their sometimes grotesque aspects. Economics is not interested in what is accidental and conditioned by the individual historical circumstances of each instance. Its aim is, on the contrary, to distinguish what is essential and necessary from what is merely adventitious. It is not interested in the psychological aspects of the panic, but only in the fact that a credit-expansion boom must unavoidably lead to a process which everyday speech calls the depression. It must realize that the depression is in fact the process of readjustment, of putting production activities anew in agreement with the given state of the market data: the available supply of factors of production, the valuations of the consumers, and particularly also the state of originary interest as manifested in the public's valuations.

================

If I may translate:
The boom is doomed as soon as the banks grow afraid to make any more loans.  Check.
Attempts to substitute additional debt and credit (what Mises calls fiduciary media) are doomed to fail.  Check.
Accidents and mass psychology turn the correction into a panic.  This is the razor's edge we find ourselves standing upon today.  The precipice may already be behind us.  A bank holiday, a war with Iran, a terrorist strike, any number of things could ignite a full-fledged panic.
Economics does not claim to predict how or when the correction/depression turns into a panic.

Again from Mises, Human Action (http://mises.org/humanaction/chap17sec8.asp#p427)

The course of a progressing inflation is this: At the beginning the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services, as has been shown, at different dates and to a different extent.

This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the [p. 428] country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

=======================

What turns ordinary inflation into hyperinflation is the awakening of the sheep.  Once they realize that the game is rigged, that they are being deliberately robbed, they demand ever higher amounts of "money" for goods.  Eventually they will no longer part with goods for any amount of the debased currency.

The printing presses get turned on when the masters mistake the rapidly dwindling bank accounts of their banker friends as a demand for more money. In fact people are getting rid of money, and are willing to pay exorbitant prices to do so.  As soon as the presses are turned off in a manner that makes the public believe there will be no more increases in money, the hyperinflation stops.  If the presses are not turned off, the currency is destroyed.

Does this answer your question, Claire?

What is particularly scary about hyperinflations is the extraordinarily short amount of time they take.  A few weeks, even a few days are enough.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 11, 2008, 12:02:06 pm
But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

=======================

What turns ordinary inflation into hyperinflation is the awakening of the sheep.  Once they realize that the game is rigged, that they are being deliberately robbed, they demand ever higher amounts of "money" for goods.  Eventually they will no longer part with goods for any amount of the debased currency.

The printing presses get turned on when the masters mistake the rapidly dwindling bank accounts of their banker friends as a demand for more money. In fact people are getting rid of money, and are willing to pay exorbitant prices to do so.  As soon as the presses are turned off in a manner that makes the public believe there will be no more increases in money, the hyperinflation stops.  If the presses are not turned off, the currency is destroyed.

Does this answer your question, Claire?

Yes, it does -- and thank you. Mises may have the fundamentals down pat, but I liked your translations better.  :mellow:

Here's where I missed something in my thinking: It didn't occur to me that the awakening of ordinary people was such a factor in kicking off hyper-inflation. I was envisioning the entire process as taking place among governments, central banks, and "money men" with "the people" only as passive victims (e.g. government needs to pay for endless warfare and welfare but doesn't want to enflame the people by raising taxes, which sets off a spiral).

It's good to know that much-ignored "We the People" do ultimately get a voice in something. Even if it's only to trigger the final catastrophe after years of being ignored, bribed, conned, and used by those in power. Even if all we can do is act with the rage of marks who finally discover how badly they've been conned.

(It feels so bizarre to be talking about us vs the powerful. This is SO much against everything I grew up believing. I used to hear people talk like that and I'd give them little lectures on the uber mobility and ultimate classlessness of the U.S. and how nobody could hold unjust power for very long in a free and open society like ours. I sincerely thought the power elite was just an illusion to explain people's own personal failures and shortcomings. Ha. Live and learn ...)

And thanks again, Silver.

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 11, 2008, 12:29:45 pm
You're very welcome Claire.  It's always a pleasure to assist the Alpha Maddog. 

You are not alone in being slow to realize the power of the masses.  The power elite always fail to recognize it until it is too late.  The people themselves seldom realize their power.  It has always been a wonder to me that we collectively tolerate so much abuse before a significant minority stops and says "Enough!"

It only takes a few percent of the population to topple governments, institutions, or financial systems.  Lew Rockwell hit it on the head: Now is the time for those of us who understand these forces to begin teaching the truth to all who will listen.  In times like these, there are more people than ever looking for answers.

In the past month I've converted 3 people to gold, and am talking to another dozen or so.  Gold is one path to understanding among many.  The person who owns gold has taken charge of his or her destiny, and begins to question the nature of money and understand the forces at work against them. 

It takes practice to teach without preaching, to convince without arguing.  Try it!  It's fun and important.  If what you know best is firearms, or food, or gulching, talk to people about them.  These are the days the TMM Mission Statement describes: "(We) hope to spark a world-wide awakening to the reality of today's sovereign human being, to the various levels of Statism which absorb the individual's life-energies, his work, his emotional capacities, and, yes, even his mind."

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on October 11, 2008, 04:54:58 pm
I thank you too, Silver.  I didn't understand how inflation becomes hyperinflation either.

When you say "convert to gold", what exactly do you mean?  I've made a start, but my livelihood still depends on fiat currency.

Also, what about silver, Silver?  (I couldn't resist that)

Thanks again.

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 11, 2008, 05:37:35 pm
The most persuasive line of reasoning seems to be an appeal to diversification.  The people I've "converted" each took a fraction of their savings, IRA, and/or 401(k) accounts and bought gold.  I tell them that physical is best, but if your money is locked in a "tax advantaged" account and you can't get at it easily, then investing in CEF (http://centralfund.com/) or GTU (http://www.gold-trust.com/) is a good idea.  You need "self directed" accounts to do this, few employers offer access to these funds, which are traded just like stocks on the AMEX. 

As for silver, I like it fine, but it is different than gold.  It has industrial uses that consume it, while gold is conserved.  It's also heavy; $20,000 worth of gold will fit in the palm of your hand, while that much silver would be a chore to lug around.  Whether or not you have $20,000, gold coins are a lot easier to store, conceal, carry, or bury than silver.

We all need to continue to use fiat, at least for the forseeable future, although what is forseeable grows shorter every day.  I advocate a steady savings program in gold or silver coins; build up your hoard.  Saving is one of the qualities of a free man.

What amazes me is the changes that happen to those who decide to buy some gold.  Whether its 5% or 25% of their savings, all of the sudden they start to notice things about money and economics, to read books and articles and websites they never read before, and to ask questions about things they have taken for granted their entire life.  It's really something to see. 

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 11, 2008, 06:23:12 pm
I am leery of gold and embrace silver. 

TPTB have outlawed private ownership of gold before (1932-1972, or so) which makes its everyday use and ownership much more limited than silver.

It is really hard to do everyday transactions in gold since its value is so dense... while a dime of 90% silver will buy a haircut, the smallest gold coin will buy a car. 

Nickels-dimes-quarters-halves, whole dollars in 90% silver will be easily understood by anyone familiar with the old US system.

For several thousand years, the silver/gold ratio was around 17/1.  Today it is 85/1.  Returning to norms would increase the relative value of silver fivefold with no other changes.

Gold is the poster child of monetary independence. Thus its current popularity in stormy financial seas, relative to silver.  Thus also, the target painted on its chest when the ruling elite want to rob those who sought financial stability outside of their exclusive club.

Of course for larger portfolios, diversification is good.  I recommend this order:
full pantry
garden preps
guns/ammo
silver
gold

That said, I have nowhere near enough silver to take the next step... and don't have enough of the first three to feel comfortable today anyway.  Gold is out of my league.


Regardless of your preferences in the precious metals, today is offering a most amazing buying opportunity.  They are at 2 1/2 year lows at the front end of the greatest financial storm to hit our planet in its history. Buy, buy, BUY !!!

The catch is, the reason for the low, low prices are the manipulators.  Do everything you can to get delivery of the physical metal as soon as you possibly can.  I probably wouldn't hide it in the woods where a rube with a metal detector can find your life's savings.  Some in your safe, and other stashes in the stair you rebuild, behind the new ironing board cabinet, etc.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on October 11, 2008, 09:38:52 pm
Quote
The most persuasive line of reasoning seems to be an appeal to diversification.  The people I've "converted" each took a fraction of their savings, IRA, and/or 401(k) accounts and bought gold.  I tell them that physical is best, but if your money is locked in a "tax advantaged" account and you can't get at it easily, then investing in CEF or GTU is a good idea.  You need "self directed" accounts to do this, few employers offer access to these funds, which are traded just like stocks on the AMEX.

As for silver, I like it fine, but it is different than gold.  It has industrial uses that consume it, while gold is conserved.  It's also heavy; $20,000 worth of gold will fit in the palm of your hand, while that much silver would be a chore to lug around.  Whether or not you have $20,000, gold coins are a lot easier to store, conceal, carry, or bury than silver.

We all need to continue to use fiat, at least for the forseeable future, although what is forseeable grows shorter every day.  I advocate a steady savings program in gold or silver coins; build up your hoard.  Saving is one of the qualities of a free man.

What amazes me is the changes that happen to those who decide to buy some gold.  Whether its 5% or 25% of their savings, all of the sudden they start to notice things about money and economics, to read books and articles and websites they never read before, and to ask questions about things they have taken for granted their entire life.  It's really something to see.

Good luck.

Peace,

Silver

Everything you say is true in my experience.   Especially the part about the changes that occur when one "invests" in PM.

As for silver...yes it is heavy and bulky, but it occurred to me that I might need it to buy small things that didn't come close to the value of an ounce of gold.  I bought silver rounds and am about to buy more (as well as more gold).  Where do you stand on that?  Is there a better way?

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 11, 2008, 09:59:24 pm
I like pure silver rounds as well.  I think they fit well with the pre'65 90% silver USA coins.  If I could have a dream portfolio, it includes primarily USA coins, then pure silver rounds/bars.  If I somehow ended up with a lot more money than a year or two's income, I'd be a gold buyer.

The main point is to think about what you will do with it all... what use is it?  I believe everyday exchange will be done with wheelbarrows of "Wiemar Republic" dollars, or pre'65 coins and pure silver rounds, or the new fiat currency TPTB are prepared to sell to us, the Amero. 

I don't see the fit of gold within the limits of my savings.  Oh to be so well stocked that I could be buying apartment complexes with a few ounces of gold... but not my lot in life.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 12, 2008, 07:10:45 am
Everything that has been said here about silver is true.  I have silver rounds as well as pre-65 silver dimes and quarters.  In a SHTF scenario they will be very useful.  "Junk" silver was about the lowest cost PM available; until a month or two ago you could buy a bag at less than melt value.  Pre-65 coins have an advantage over rounds in being almost universally recognized and accepted as genuine, even among those unfamiliar with precious metals.

This group is way ahead of the people I am "converting" to gold.  Most here already understand the logic and need for PMs, while the people I am talking to have little knowledge of the subject.  I find that keeping the initial lesson simple and straightforward works best.

It's true that silver has historically been valued to gold at ratios between 15:1 and 17:1.  Given the much higher ratio today, many believe that silver offers much higher potential returns for gold.  That may be so, but I don't collect PMs for "profit."  I have them to preserve wealth, to protect me and my family and loved ones, and as a free man's alternative to banks and fiat paper.  I buy PMs to get rid of FRNs.  I've traded metal for goods a few times, but mostly they are not for sale, not under anything resembling present circumstances.

Right now, gold has both commercial and monetary uses.  Both uses create demand for the metal, demand sets the price, since supply is nearly fixed.  Silver has much lower demand as money, almost all demand is for commercial purposes.  IF silver regains its status as money, there will be a huge increase in demand and the ratio will move back towards historical norms.  But silver supply is not fixed, it is both consumed and produced in significant quantities.  There are analyses claiming to show that there is actually less physical silver above ground right now than gold. 

How silver will fare compared to gold is anyone's guess.  The well-prepared will have both in their possession, in a diversified mix of physical forms.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 24, 2008, 05:18:34 am
We are so freaking doomed. Yesterday's Federal Reserve H3 report shows still more acceleration in the creation of money.

The Federal Reserve statistics (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/) released 10/22/08 shows an increase in the monetary base of 16% over the past two weeks.

This is on top of fortnightly increases of about 9% and 8%. Since the "credit crisis" was revealed in July 2007, the fed has created 322,000,000,000 new Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs), using the most strict definition of money supply.  I can no longer bear to call them "dollars."  A 39% increase in just over a year.  More FRNs created in 6 weeks than in the 20 years 1975-1995.

I'm finding it difficult to grasp the enormity of this crime.  In just two weeks they have created 160,000,000,000 FRNs.  That's 132,242 every freaking second.

160 gigaFRNs (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19470.msg246379#msg246379) per fortnight.  132 kiloFRNs per second.  I still can't really comprehend these numbers.

But I can comprehend what they mean.  When I started this thread, the rate of money creation was over 680% per year.  It has since accelerated, each and every fortnight, and is now in the neighborhood of 1500% per year.  Sooner or later this new money will work its way into the broader measures of money supply, and into the economy. 

Hyperinflation is an ugly way for a nation to die.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 24, 2008, 11:55:21 pm
The only ones in trouble are those who refused to eliminate their debt and prepare for whatever came.
None of us are doomed, some are just about to be given an education in economics, come around again.

A gentle reminder....  In this country, debts are almost all in FRNs.  Owing $100,000 on a home when the dollar shrinks to $100,000 per hour of honest labor is not an insurmountable debt, as long as your job survives the crash and your employer is somehow able to keep your paycheck inflating as the dollar power-dives into nothingness.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 25, 2008, 04:01:42 am
The only ones in trouble are those who refused to eliminate their debt and prepare for whatever came.
None of us are doomed, some are just about to be given an education in economics, come around again.

A gentle reminder....  In this country, debts are almost all in FRNs.  Owing $100,000 on a home when the dollar shrinks to $100,000 per hour of honest labor is not an insurmountable debt, as long as your job survives the crash and your employer is somehow able to keep your paycheck inflating as the dollar power-dives into nothingness.

That's the trick, isn't it?  Finding a job that survives the inflation and an employer who increases your pay as fast as prices rise.

The problem is there are no such jobs, except the ones first in line at the trough, getting the newly created money.  Everywhere else, and I use the word "everywhere" carefully, rises in wages tend to lag rises in prices.  Your employer needs to get more money before he has more money to pay you; that means he/she must raise prices for your firm's goods or services before your salary can be adjusted.  Sometimes, after slow inflation, the rises in some wages can overshoot the rises in prices, but in a hyperinflation, that is almost never the case.

Inflation favors debtors, and hyperinflation does indeed extinguish debts.  But that is not always a good thing, or fair.  Imagine that a builder financed your home with his own money.  He invested money saved over a lifetime in order to produce a steady stream of income in his old age.  You are honest and pay the mortgage, but along comes hyperinflation and eventually an hour's wage lets you pay the note.

You have benefited, but the builder has been cheated of his investment.  He will die in poverty.  You didn't steal from him, but he has been robbed.

And while you can protect yourself from hyperinflation by saving in gold and silver, the protection is not complete.  All of us need FRNs for savings and commerce.  Very few of us can be paid in gold.  Pension plans, life insurance policies, and other annuities are all wiped out in hyperinflations.

That's why I say we are all freaking doomed.  It doesn't matter if you have debt or not.  It doesn't matter if you have gold, or ammo, or food, or fortress.  What matters is that civil society is about to be torn into tiny, bloody shreds.  Countless lives will be ruined and people everywhere will learn to take advantage of one another whenever and however they can.  Wealth will be transferred away from those who work and save, to those who are politically connected, to the wealthy, and in random ways that will take generations to sort out. 

A free market tends to transfer wealth to those who put it to the best and highest uses in serving the needs of consumers.  A hyperinflation rips through the market like a hurricane, scattering wealth here and there without regard for property rights or merit.  Certainly it is possible, and vitally necessary, to rebuild afterwards, but it takes a long, long time to repair the damage.  We will all live shorter, nastier lives as a result of what is to come.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 25, 2008, 10:45:49 am
So ....
Holding the frn's here at the house is not helping me either ?
I should be spending them for      fill in the blank Please    ?
I am trying to figure out what medium of exchange the locals here are going to accept ....
[I have no room for a garden or a corral for "cattle" or livestock of any kind. I rent.]

I'll figure it out .... eventually.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Apple on October 25, 2008, 12:59:47 pm
I am trying to figure out what medium of exchange the locals here are going to accept ....
[I have no room for a garden or a corral for "cattle" or livestock of any kind. I rent.]

Well, since you mentioned rent... You might start by having a little chat with your landlord.

"Say, I wanted to ask you a question. IF, and I'm not in any way suggesting that this will happen or even that it's likely, but IF we somehow ended up in a hyperinflation and US dollars became worthless, what would you like to receive in payment for my continued tenantship?" *

Then stock up on that.

* Actual phrasing to be tailored to the character and temperament of said landlord.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 25, 2008, 01:04:26 pm
I am trying to figure out what medium of exchange the locals here are going to accept ....
[I have no room for a garden or a corral for "cattle" or livestock of any kind. I rent.]

Well, since you mentioned rent... You might start by having a little chat with your landlord.

"Say, I wanted to ask you a question. IF, and I'm not in any way suggesting that this will happen or even that it's likely, but IF we somehow ended up in a hyperinflation and US dollars became worthless, what would you like to receive in payment for my continued tenantship?" *

Then stock up on that.

* Actual phrasing to be tailored to the character and temperament of said landlord.

So far Labor has been accepted on both sides of this exchange.

One of the reasons I have not moved on out of town or to a smaller town YET.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 25, 2008, 01:09:30 pm
Silver:

I am posting my response to your last post but forced myself to re-read it as I thought it odd that you seemed unfavorable to holding PM's in a hyperinflationary environment.

You wrote:

Quote
That's why I say we are all freaking doomed.  It doesn't matter if you have debt or not.  It doesn't matter if you have gold, or ammo, or food, or fortress.  What matters is that civil society is about to be torn into tiny, bloody shreds.

Which I now interpret to not disparage the PM's as a store of wealth but rather an expression of concern for the social consequences of hyperinflation. Correct?

I am posting this my thoughts as some of the information may be of value to those interested in PM's during hyperinflationary times.


While hyperinflation, if it occurs, will be devastaing to all economies exposed into which the fiat is injected, in all cases of which I am aware a central role for PM's in "wealth preservation". In terms of convertibility, hasn't there always emerged a Black Market to compensate for market controls, which is essentially what the current FRN currency realm is? Everywhere I have travelled to that has had currency issues there existed a currency Black Market where I could exchange FRN's at a significant premium to the official rate of exchange.

The PM's were exchanged during the hyperinflation/devaluations of Weimar, Argentina, Russia (1990's) and every other collapse of which I am aware. Are you saying that "it will be different this time" or have I missed your point?

Here are some numbers courtesy of Le Metropole Cafe:


Wiemar, Germany Gold and Silver Prices
German Mark prices of Silver and Gold from January 1919 to November 1923:

Jan. 1919 Silver 12 Gold 170
May. 1919 Silver 17 Gold 267
Sept. 1919 Silver 31 Gold 499

Jan. 1920 Silver 84 Gold 1,340
May 1920 Silver 60 Gold 966

Sept. 1921 Silver 80 Gold 2,175

Jan. 1922 Silver 249 Gold 3,976
May. 1922 Silver 375 Gold 6,012
Sept. 1922 Silver 1899 Gold 30,381

Jan. 1923 Silver 23,277 Gold 372,447
May. 1923 Silver 44,397 Gold 710,355
June 5, 1923 Silver 80,953 Gold 1,295,256
July 3, 1923 Silver 207,239 Gold 3,315,831
Aug. 7, 1923 Silver 4,273,874 Gold 68,382,000
Sept. 4, 1923 Silver 16,839,937 Gold 269,429,000
Oct. 2, 1923 Silver 414,484,000 Gold 6,631,749,000
Oct. 9, 1923 Silver 1,554,309,000 Gold 24,868,950,000
Oct. 16, 1923 Silver 5,319,567,000 Gold 84,969,072,000
Oct. 23, 1923 Silver 7,253,460,000 Gold 1,160,552,662,000
Oct. 30, 1923 Silver 8,419,200,000 Gold 1,347,070,000,000
Nov. 5, 1923 Silver 54,375,000,000 Gold 8,700,000,000,000
Nov. 13, 1923 Silver 108,750,000,000 Gold 17,400,000,000,000
Nov. 30, 1923 Silver 543,750,000,000 Gold 87,000,000,000,000

While prices will vary and sometimes greatly as is the case today between spot and retail due to retail backwardation, the trend during monetary inflation/hyperinflation will be an increase in FRN's for the PM's. What we are seeing today is what Richard Russell dubbed in 2007 as an "artificial short squeeze" in the dollar due to debt liquidation denominated in USD, AKA a rush to the dollar.

The market is beginning to see a correction between physical & futures. The chart below is courtesy of Gene Arensberg writing the "Got Gold Report". He writes:

"In other news, as of Tuesday, when the paper-contract-dominated spot price of silver closed at $10.10 the ounce, the COMEX commercial traders came in at 22,268 contracts net short.  That's the lowest commercial net short position for silver for years.  The futures-dominated spot price of the metal has since tested as low as $8.68 before its recovery back to $9.29 on Friday.  It's a good bet the net short position is even lower as of today."

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=47347

BR/DS


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 25, 2008, 01:59:29 pm
Hollywoodgold, gooch, anyone else reading this thread,

I did not intend to convey that PMs are worthless in a hyperinflation.  Indeed, they are key to preserving wealth.

Hollywoodgold got it right, I'm concerned about the effects on civil society.  While it will be good to preserve your fortune with a trove of gold and silver, it will be pretty tough if you live next door to someone who will kill you for a pack of cigarettes.  Or if the person down the street tells the friendly local gang of plunderers that you seem to be doing a lot better than everyone else.  Or if your doctor rats you out to the feds because your health makes it clear you are eating better than everyone else. 

Even in the best of time you should keep your gold and silver secret and safe.  In a hyperinflation, you'll need to be hypervigilant lest your wealth make you a target.  People you think you know will do things you will not believe. 

Preserving wealth is good, but its not enough.  Money will not buy happiness, and a rich man in a recently impoverished, seething society becomes a target. That's why we are all freaking doomed. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Apple on October 25, 2008, 02:45:09 pm
Well, since you mentioned rent... You might start by having a little chat with your landlord.

So far Labor has been accepted on both sides of this exchange.

That's great. But remember, your landlord's needs may change dramatically when TS HTF. If you've got that covered, tend to your next priority (Doctor? Plumber?) and work your way down the list. Try to find commonalities, but also remember that items unique to their profession would become very valuable. Think commonly needed medicine, bandaids, syringes & needles for your doctor. Not only will those be very valuable to him, but they will allow him to continue to do his Work. (Very important, that last bit.)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on October 25, 2008, 03:44:01 pm
Hollywoodgold, gooch, anyone else reading this thread,
...
Even in the best of time you should keep your gold and silver secret and safe.  In a
hyperinflation, you'll need to be hypervigilant lest your wealth make you a target. 
People you think you know will do things you will not believe. 

Preserving wealth is good, but its not enough.  Money will not buy happiness, and
a rich man in a recently impoverished, seething society becomes a target. That's why
we are all freaking doomed.


I just got here. As I wrote elsewhere, I've been off the net these past weeks. Gad, what I've missed here!

Truly an important thread.
Great work, Silver, for starting and adding your take.
Thanks, as always.

And appreciation as well to everyone else here.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 25, 2008, 10:49:48 pm
Hollywoodgold, gooch, anyone else reading this thread,

I did not intend to convey that PMs are worthless in a hyperinflation.  Indeed, they are key to preserving wealth.

Hollywoodgold got it right, I'm concerned about the effects on civil society.  While it will be good to preserve your fortune with a trove of gold and silver, it will be pretty tough if you live next door to someone who will kill you for a pack of cigarettes.  Or if the person down the street tells the friendly local gang of plunderers that you seem to be doing a lot better than everyone else.  Or if your doctor rats you out to the feds because your health makes it clear you are eating better than everyone else. 

Even in the best of time you should keep your gold and silver secret and safe.  In a hyperinflation, you'll need to be hypervigilant lest your wealth make you a target.  People you think you know will do things you will not believe. 

Preserving wealth is good, but its not enough.  Money will not buy happiness, and a rich man in a recently impoverished, seething society becomes a target. That's why we are all freaking doomed. 

Peace,

Silver

Silver:

It is for the reasons you state that "junk" 90% silver has great value. It is divisible down to a dime, or .0715 oz ag at today's "price" about .71$. If silver reaches $150/oz, a dime would equal ±$10.75. These levels of value would enable a clever man to run under the radar even though a bag of dimes at $150/oz silver would equal ±$108K.  Today my bank gives me the coin wrappers to roll my coins. In a hyper-inflationary state the coins disappear as do the wrappers. Get it done now, roll and divide the hoard and disperse the rolls so that if the SHTF you have usable stash at the bug out, bug in and bugger locations.

DS
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on October 26, 2008, 10:46:30 pm
I am trying to figure out what medium of exchange the locals here are going to accept ....
[I have no room for a garden or a corral for "cattle" or livestock of any kind. I rent.]

Well, since you mentioned rent... You might start by having a little chat with your landlord.

"Say, I wanted to ask you a question. IF, and I'm not in any way suggesting that this will happen or even that it's likely, but IF we somehow ended up in a hyperinflation and US dollars became worthless, what would you like to receive in payment for my continued tenantship?" *

Then stock up on that.

* Actual phrasing to be tailored to the character and temperament of said landlord.

So far Labor has been accepted on both sides of this exchange.

One of the reasons I have not moved on out of town or to a smaller town YET.

also, practice living rough as in without commercially-supplied light, heat, water. is the living situation conducive to stocking-up or using alternate means?

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 27, 2008, 06:18:53 pm
I am trying to figure out what medium of exchange the locals here are going to accept ....
[I have no room for a garden or a corral for "cattle" or livestock of any kind. I rent.]

Well, since you mentioned rent... You might start by having a little chat with your landlord.

"Say, I wanted to ask you a question. IF, and I'm not in any way suggesting that this will happen or even that it's likely, but IF we somehow ended up in a hyperinflation and US dollars became worthless, what would you like to receive in payment for my continued tenantship?" *

Then stock up on that.

* Actual phrasing to be tailored to the character and temperament of said landlord.

So far Labor has been accepted on both sides of this exchange.

One of the reasons I have not moved on out of town or to a smaller town YET.

also, practice living rough as in without commercially-supplied light, heat, water. is the living situation conducive to stocking-up or using alternate means?

clarence
emphasis mine

Skills I do have.
I am not able to turn off the electric or city water because the landlord figures that signals the abandonment of the rental.
{IE: "No Water ? How do you bathe and flush ?"  "No Electric ? How do you cook/store food ?"}
Alternate electric ? Nope He doesn't want his property "modified".
[I wanted to put in a wood burning stove several years ago. which brought up the "what If's" ....]
I also wanted to put in a solar water heater .... Nope. Same reason.
He did let me keep a rain barrel outside my back door. [emergency and/or flush water]
Alternate water ? Not without serious travel or drilling .... see reasons above ....

I could organize a special situation with him but don't feel the need at present.
Stocking up is what has taken up most of the free space in my  small apartment.

Quote ML from another thread [ https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19471.msg246332#msg246332 ]
Quote
Don't know where you live, gooch, but it sounds like a sardine can!! It also sounds like a terrible place to be in an economic crunch, let alone a meltdown. Is there no way you can get OUT of there? Personally, I'd make that my first priority. :Sad:

Well 28 years of living on boats tends to make sardine cans seem comfortable.
I could find lots of things I'd like to change but nearly every single one of them requires money.
*sigh*
I am also directly descended from a world class Pack Rat and I MAY have inherited some of those tendencies ....  :rolleyes:
{This is not a bad thing it just means that I don't have a long hallway or a private backyard, etc, etc.}
All in all I am quite happy with my life BUT I would move out of town [to MY own land] in a heart beat.
The actual goal ....

Thanks to all for the interest.

I was astonished to find that a bunch of folks here in this little town think the PTB are just as "nuts" as we think they are.
Not many are thinking about a "complete collapse" but a bunch are frustrated with the choices of politicians and I overheard more than three saying "I don't plan on voting at all ..." .
[This was at a wedding reception where I was helping out with the background stuff. "Sanitation engineer" ]

I MAY have to change my opinion of the attention level among the sheeple in this part of the world ....

Title: The flood continues
Post by: Silver on November 06, 2008, 03:51:26 pm
The FRB H.3 report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/) is out:

8.3% increase in the monetary base in 2 weeks.
50% increase compared to this time last year.

95 gigaFRNs created in the past 2 weeks.
75 kiloFRNs per second.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Elias Alias on November 08, 2008, 03:02:39 am
Silver, I've just read this last page on this thread. I must say I agree with you re: the civil/social fragmentation. Your brief list of examples was well-chosen and illustrative, I thought. Nice work on that post.

We're focused real tight on survival networking here, and talk about preparedness pops up in any section of town. I'm thinking that the true remnant is quite larger than I had originally guessed, but my focus now is more on getting myself set to ride out the coming insanity and be as helpful in our network as I can be. Power source, water, beans and bullets, rice and PMs. But the most important thing here in rural Montana is the network between like-prepared individuals. One has chickens, another does wood work, while another has cows etc and all have a true old fashioned American glint in their eyes - which unifies the network. Landowners up here know each other and where's what and when. Good folks. Got guns. Got land. Got guts. And with the help of the Jefferson River Coalition, they're getting the knowledge.

But you know, that airy note of optimism I just said is all fine and dandy for stove-side talk, but the truth is closer to what you've painted, and I'm trying to perpetually check my wakeful state. I think we may be very very close to some extreme stuff, and I do not think the American people have thusfar been conditioned to take what's coming. I think they're totally unprepared en mass. I think they shall devour each other like rabid rats in a small cage. That is why I've been suggesting for years that people get out of the cities of man and dig into the dirt of rural America. I'm way on out there in rural country, and I still feel the chill of what's coming - I think this one will bleed into Small-Town, USA.  I think they'll activate the draft and draft all young people into all sorts of government agencies from the DHS to the Justice Department with all its goon groups, to the military.

And damned if when that happens the globalist economists shall have a subservient American public on its knees under a regime which must collect their weapons for their security. The message currently being distributed and processed is "resistance is futile". People did not shoot when troops took their guns in New Orleans. They'll not shoot if the gun grab is spotted around in regions instead of a blanket nation-wide operation. We are so close to slavery I can't even describe it, in my opinion. But I did not come into this thread to say any of this anyway. I read this page while looking to see if there was a good place to drop off a link when I started reading your posts. Had to say something. But here is a link which will reinforce your sense of the common doom -

http://www.augustreview.com/news_commentary/economy/dems_target_private_retirement_accounts_20081107104/

I mean, just to add the whipped cream atop the strawberries atop the ice cream atop the cake which has summoned up the circus, yes?

 Keepin' the faith as best we can here, and wishin' ye the same,
Salute!
Elias
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: freewoman on November 08, 2008, 06:55:28 am
Well, Elias, thanks for the update.  I can't say I'm surprised.  I took out half of what little I had in my retirement account (started the process before the whole bailout thing, and fortunately I got it out of there) because it was being frittered away--I originally had $70,000, and when I took out a chunk it was down to $54,000.  That's $16,000 disappearing in 2 years.  Now obviously that's not a lot--I didn't have a huge amount in there to start with.  But some of our residents in the retirement community where I work are losing huge amounts.  One couple has to move by December because they've lost almost everything.  The man, who had successfully built up several businesses, was in tears at the front desk last week.  It's devastating on people's lives. 

Evidently that's the point.  The motto of TPTB seems to be:  "If they won't join you, beat them."  Maybe not physically, but in every other way possible.

It's rather ironic that this story came out this week.  The man who drives residents to doctor's appointments and the like said to me last week, "Isn't it a good thing that Social Security money wasn't put into the stock market?"  Oh, man.  I had to walk away with just a cursory answer.  There are so many layers of deception today, it's absolutely astonishing. 

Thanks to all who have been posting the eye-opening information on this thread.  It helps us all stay on track.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 08, 2008, 08:53:32 am
Elias,

Thank you for the kind words.  I agree that most Americans are not prepared.  Heck, I'm not prepared, and I've seen this coming for a long time.  Not as long as you perhaps, but long enough.  So I have the food and such, but I'm still on the East Coast where there are no truly rural areas and the populations of big cities are far too close for comfort.  Things are getting worse much faster than I anticipated, and I've been caught short.

One thing we as a community need to think about is the social networks you describe.  Not in cyberspace, but where we live.  Even here, if I can ally myself with a group of like-minded people, the odds are vastly improved.

The coming hard times provide a tremendous opportunity: service.  There is nothing like helping someone who truly needs it to convert them to seeing the world as you do.  There is no better way to really get to know someone than working beside them.  If we begin to organize small service groups to check in on each other, the sick and elderly, the hungry and cold, our numbers will grow and our chances for surviving this test will increase dramatically.  When you get to the real work, not just banging a keyboard, the talkers get separated from the folk you can trust.  Small, informal groups that help each other and grow their networks by helping the hardest hit will allow us to build our strength with people who can be counted on when the chips are down.

Thanks again for the comments, and thank you for all you have done, and are doing.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Elias Alias on November 08, 2008, 11:29:09 am
Well, Elias, thanks for the update.  I can't say I'm surprised.  I took out half of what little I had in my retirement account (started the process before the whole bailout thing, and fortunately I got it out of there) because it was being frittered away--I originally had $70,000, and when I took out a chunk it was down to $54,000.  That's $16,000 disappearing in 2 years.  Now obviously that's not a lot--I didn't have a huge amount in there to start with.  But some of our residents in the retirement community where I work are losing huge amounts.  One couple has to move by December because they've lost almost everything.  The man, who had successfully built up several businesses, was in tears at the front desk last week.  It's devastating on people's lives. 

I'm glad you snatched your stash before the crash! Hopefully, you've bought yourself a bag of Silver Dollars - I think every American knows what a Silver Dollar is, and they'll take 'em in barter if the economy fails. Looking at the situation for your retirees there, it's absolutely horrible what's happening to retired folks who thought they had planned for some security during their later years. And just think - this crap was delivered to them by a Republican Administration - so in effect, the Bush Administration has driven the American voter out of the Republican party in droves and thereby insured a Democrat victory. And if we think Bush's BS was bad enough, just wait until we see how Pelosi and Obama will fan the flames of financial meltdown! 

"Are you ready for the country? Because it's time to go." - Neil Young

Salute!
Elias
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Elias Alias on November 08, 2008, 11:51:10 am
Elias,

Thank you for the kind words.  I agree that most Americans are not prepared.  Heck, I'm not prepared, and I've seen this coming for a long time.  Not as long as you perhaps, but long enough.  So I have the food and such, but I'm still on the East Coast where there are no truly rural areas and the populations of big cities are far too close for comfort.  Things are getting worse much faster than I anticipated, and I've been caught short.

Same here, Silver. I don't think the reality of all this really hit me until a few months ago. Prior, it was just a concept; now it's something which drives my thinking every day. How to stock up a few months' supply of food and drinking water, how to  buy and hold some Silver Dollars for barter. Which kinds of bullets to buy at the next gun show. Figuring new ways to communicate with the local folks, looking for ways to caution them about what's coming and showing them the reasons to network. There is much to be done, and like you, I'm really caught short too. But Silver, just imagine where we'd be if we did not see this coming, as is the case with so many distracted Americans. At least we've got a few provisions and plans laid in.

Quote
One thing we as a community need to think about is the social networks you describe.  Not in cyberspace, but where we live.  Even here, if I can ally myself with a group of like-minded people, the odds are vastly improved.

Amen to that. I talk a lot over talk-radio about getting to know one's neighbor, establishing friendship and trust. We *are* the people, and it is now on the people to help each other survive what's coming. But what is compounding matters is that not only do we anticipate financial woes, we also anticipate the installation of a police state which will be tasked with controlling "civil unrest" which of course the financial crisis shall foment. The more I think on it, the more it appears to me that the financial crisis was allowed to develop. I know that sounds rather "far-out", but anymore I'm suspicious of anything major which just "happens", like the massive bailout. I do recall that I predicted the Fannie Mae corruption, and Jamie Gorelick's participation in that, three years ago, and I'm seeing a lot of signs these days which spawn inside my brain a sense of suspicion. When this nation is on its knees in government relief lines and the dollar is being considered defunct and a new international currency is being debated and the political climate is insane and all the while the corporate dynasty continues its march toward globalism, I can only wonder how the coming financial crash could fit such a template. But all that aside, I think you're spot-on with your ideas about networking, and you're right that it vastly improves one's (and everyone's) odds.

Quote
The coming hard times provide a tremendous opportunity: service.  There is nothing like helping someone who truly needs it to convert them to seeing the world as you do.  There is no better way to really get to know someone than working beside them.  If we begin to organize small service groups to check in on each other, the sick and elderly, the hungry and cold, our numbers will grow and our chances for surviving this test will increase dramatically.  When you get to the real work, not just banging a keyboard, the talkers get separated from the folk you can trust.  Small, informal groups that help each other and grow their networks by helping the hardest hit will allow us to build our strength with people who can be counted on when the chips are down.

Well said. I've nothing to add to that, except to thank you for giving me fresh ideas. I need to get a meeting organized for JRC to discuss with our members the points you've made here - especially the concept of developing a side of JRC to facilitate "services". That is the best grass-roots idea I've seen in a while, so I thank ye.

Salute!
Elias

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on November 08, 2008, 04:38:52 pm
Quote
One thing we as a community need to think about is the social networks you describe.  Not in cyberspace, but where we live.  Even here, if I can ally myself with a group of like-minded people, the odds are vastly improved.

Community newspapers.  Having recently fallen backwards into the newspaper business, I've learned how easy (and how much work) it is to publish a newspaper.  My plan is to start a community newspaper.  While there are two local newspapers, neither publishes anything of interest to the majority of the local people.  I'm going to be as subtle as I can regarding editorial opinion, but once we've got the enthusiasm built up, that will come...albeit slowly.

When this paper is up and running smoothly, I'm planning to put a package together for others who want to do the same thing around the country.  

The trickiest piece is finding a printer.  I know of one location in North Carolina where it might be nigh on to impossible because they're all afraid of the local powers that be. 

The paper will have a print edition as well as an online presence.  I'm hoping it will help the community communicate. 

Current plan is to have the first issue out for New Year's.

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on November 08, 2008, 05:09:30 pm
Our paper will be a monthly.  It will be free.  All classifieds for individuals will be free.  Ads for non-profits (churches, etc) will be free.  Businesses will have to pay for ads although I'm considering making help wanted ads free. 

The main thrust of the newspaper will be to publish upcoming events and memorable happenings (births, deaths, marriages and Mrs. Martinez' 90th birthday party) and a little liberty oriented stuff.  Most everything that's in the print edition will be on the web site.  We will depend on the community to submit stories and events.

No color.  It's too expensive and I'm an old-fashioned newspaper purist on the subject of color.  Not necessary.

All this can be done with a lot of work and about $400/month.  Should be able to sell enough ads to cover most of the cost.  This is a community service and I don't expect to make any money personally.  Having said that, once the community gets involved and excited about it, it may actually make money.

Perhaps an example of "doing well by doing good"?

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on November 09, 2008, 11:53:57 pm
Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Identify Bank Loans

 Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=us

  If this isn't a sign of general looting of taxpayer money, I don;t know what is.

  Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on November 10, 2008, 08:50:53 am
   Circuit City filed for bankruptcy today. Deutsche Post said it will close operations of its DHL express services in the US.
   It just keeps piling up. (The human misery, that is.)

   Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 16, 2008, 07:17:09 am
John Williams, who maintains Shadow Government Statistics (http://www.shadowstats.com/) released a double-issue newsletter this weekend.

The figures:
Consumer price inflation: 12.9% - fedgov lies say 4.9%
Unemployment:               15.8% - officially 6.5%.  He also reports impossible biases in monthly employment figures in 11 out of the past 12 months, resulting in 678,000 jobs lost but not acknowledged. 
GDP:                              -3.27% - officially +0.81%.  He notes that GDP figures are "the least meaningful and most heavily massaged of all major government economic series. 
                                                                              Published by the BEA, it primarily has become a tool for economic propaganda."

The bottome line:

Mr. Williams has been predicting a hyperinflation for some time.  He forecast in April 2008 that the hyperinflation could begin between 2010 and 2018, with his expectations towards 2010.  Since that time, "whatever limited U.S. fiscal and monetary discipline existed is gone."
Based on the accelerating deterioration of the US government finances, the US economy, and the US dollar, he has revised his prediction.

He now believes a hyperinflation could start in 2009.

Peace,

Silver
Title: largest foreign holder of US treasuries
Post by: byron mc on November 19, 2008, 09:42:57 am
Quote
China in September became the largest foreign holder of US treasuries ahead of Japan, the US Treasury Department reported in figures released Tuesday.

Quote
China held 585 billion dollars worth of treasuries, while Japan held 573.2 billion dollars, according to Treasury figures.
The third largest foreign holder is Britain, with 338.4 billion dollars.

Published: Wednesday November 19, 2008
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/China_in_September_becomes_largest__11192008.html
Title: The flood intensifies
Post by: Silver on November 20, 2008, 07:09:55 pm
The FRB H.3 report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/) is out:

19.4% increase in the monetary base in 2 weeks!
79% increase compared to this time last year!!

240 gigaFRNs created in the past 2 weeks!!!
199 kiloFRNs per second.

If they had to print these as "dollar bills," it would require more than 2,800 presses going at top speed, 3 shifts, 7 days.

We are so freaking doomed.

Peace,

Silver

Quote
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 20, 2008, 07:12:56 pm
(http://www.loc.gov/rr/business/images/money2_3b38767r.jpg)

A woman poses with 1 million $1 notes.

At the present rate of money creation, this amount of money would be printed every 5 seconds.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on November 20, 2008, 07:18:19 pm
 TPTB who chose Helicopter Ben for Chairman of the Fed chose well, since their plan was to destroy the US economy, making us a third world nation. He has done what they hoped. "Apres moi, le deluge!", indeed.

  Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on November 20, 2008, 08:44:40 pm
Everybody has their own ways of trying to grasp the enormousness (not to mention the enormity) of the sums being created and wasted now. AIG bailout 6x as big as the Manhattan Project ... entire bailout to date more expensive than WWII ... etc.

I simply cannot grasp GigaFRNs and TeraFRNs.

Every time I hear or see some new, unthinkable number like the ones Silver is so good at digging up, I keep coming back to one anchoring thought: In the year John Kennedy was elected, within the memories of many people here, the entire federal budget was less than $93 billion (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0104753.html). And the fedgov ran a surplus.

(The linked table shows a summary of federal budgets from 1789 to the present. As Silver and the Mogambo Guru say, "We're SO freaking doomed." And we have been for a long, long time.)

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mr. Bill on November 20, 2008, 10:29:57 pm
...As Silver and the Mogambo Guru say, "We're SO freaking doomed." ...

Yeah, I've been wondering about that.  Separated at birth?

 :mellow:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 21, 2008, 06:49:08 am
...As Silver and the Mogambo Guru say, "We're SO freaking doomed." ...
Yeah, I've been wondering about that.  Separated at birth?

Nah, I'm just a JMR.  There is a saying that if one copies from a single author, it is plagiarism, but when you copy from many authors, it is research.
I do a lot of research.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on November 21, 2008, 09:34:59 am
Quote
it is plagiarism

I've never seen "flattery" spelled quite that way.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on November 21, 2008, 09:51:49 am
http://www.loc.gov/rr/business/images/money2_3b38767r.  jpg

A woman poses with 1 million $1 notes.

At the present rate of money creation, this amount of money would be printed every 5 seconds.

Peace,

Silver
[photo link disabled to conserve space]

I remember visiting the 1962 World's Fair in Seattle and seeing the One Million Silver Dollars Exhibit.
I was 14 so I won't try to pretend that my recollections are accurate BUT it seems to my memory that it was in a Huge glass [acrylic ?] "tank" and was approximately 10 feet across and about 10 feet tall [deep ?].
All of the vagueness is to further accent the fact of it being so long ago and the absolute exactitude of my purfekt  memory.   :ph34r:

I Do accurately remember being truly impressed at that much silver all in one place.

They were selling the silver dollars out of it by subscription. They would send you your silver dollar after the Fair closed and in its own protective/display container for $1.95 at 1962 prices. Bulk sales were also available but my folks didn't have any "disposable" excess cash what with three food gobblers  er .... children to raise.

Sorry to get so Off Topic ....

We now return you to your regular topic .... {Bzzzwakeerrt .... electronic sounds of things arcing and short circuiting ....}
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on November 22, 2008, 11:53:36 am
Bill's End the War on Freedom (http://www.billstclair.com/blog):


World Demand collapsing (http://www.billstclair.com/blog/world_demand_collapsing.html)

There are stories about ships all over the world stacking up in exporting countries, anchored, and not able to sail because they cannot get letters of credit for the shipments. Hong Kong was mentioned as having rows and rows of loaded but idled ships stuck there.


and also

Jomama's to herd or not to herd (http://djomama.blogspot.com):

"The ships keep coming, but there's nowhere for the cars to go," ... (http://djomama.blogspot.com/2008/11/ships-keep-coming-but-theres-nowhere.html)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: S. Jester on November 22, 2008, 12:54:45 pm
“It’s getting really ugly out there,”

A quote from here:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/449d47da-b7ec-11dd-ac6d-0000779fd18c.html


S.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on December 07, 2008, 08:25:48 am
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122852247202284343.html?mod=9_0002_b_online_exclusives_weekend

Quote
You can't add it to the monetary base until it's in someone's bank account. Much of it is being used to cover losses on existing loans, not for new ones. The Fed demands lots of collateral to ensure that lending doesn't get out of hand. And most of its loans are short-term and can be unwound very quickly -- another mechanism to inhibit hyperinflation.

Jim Mctague of Barron's doesn't think we're headed for hyperinflation because the money being created out of thin air is merely replacing money that vaporized back into thin air when the bubble burst and the crash struck.

But he hedges his bets.

I think the mere fact that a mainstream rag like Barron's is discussing the possibility of hyperinflation speaks volumes. What do you think?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: padre29 on December 07, 2008, 08:47:00 am


Well it strikes me that rags such as Barron's, the WSJ, the NYT financial section all did not "see it coming" the first time around, Citi didn't see it coming, and now some analyst for Citi is predicting Gold at 2k an ounce.

Could be, these folks do not know what the hell they are talking about and a shift to classical investing and strategies is in order?

I don't know if hyperinflation will hit, I do know my box of TP and bag of beans will not be effected if it does arrive.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 07, 2008, 09:12:45 am
   My first thought was that Ron Paul must be making headway with the general population if Barron's feels the need to take a swipe at him, rather than just ignore him, which has been the MSMs posture thus far.
   Another thought: The writer is desparately hoping the Fed and Treasury have thought it through and have a plan to pull money out of the mainstream once things begin to stabilize.

   Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 07, 2008, 09:42:05 am
Some thoughts:
   I've had conversations with Elias about Bernays (sp?) studies of the differences between individual thinking vs. group thinking. An individual may think one thing, but when part of a group, the thinking becomes part of the group's dynamic.Modern advertising uses his thinking as part of their advertising campaigns.
   With that in mind. I've begun noticing more articles suggesting now is the time to get back in the Market, or to buy a home, or that new car, or to buy that latest gadget. There is never any mention, really, of why NOW is the time, it is just proclaimed it is time. Bernays group think, methinks. Repeat it often enough, with enough references to "smart people" recognize this is the time to open their wallets and get great deals, blah, blah, blah.
   The fiction becomes the reality, which is what our economy is, and has been, based on. Buy, buy, buy, the mantra goes. Be a part of the "Now Generation". Don't listen to the naysayers. Have your cake and eat it too. Don't think of tomorrow. Just do it.
   Group think. It's all about group think.

   Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on December 07, 2008, 11:08:08 am
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122852247202284343.html?mod=9_0002_b_online_exclusives_weekend

Quote
You can't add it to the monetary base until it's in someone's bank account. Much of it is being used to cover losses on existing loans, not for new ones. The Fed demands lots of collateral to ensure that lending doesn't get out of hand. And most of its loans are short-term and can be unwound very quickly -- another mechanism to inhibit hyperinflation.

Jim Mctague of Barron's doesn't think we're headed for hyperinflation because the money being created out of thin air is merely replacing money that vaporized back into thin air when the bubble burst and the crash struck.

But he hedges his bets.

I think the mere fact that a mainstream rag like Barron's is discussing the possibility of hyperinflation speaks volumes. What do you think?

Claire

Claire, it is clear that "the economy" has achieved a level of complexity that it is now wholly unintelligible. No one and I do literally mean no single person can comprehend it. No one can make heads nor tails of it. Bless the many who do try. Unfortunately it seems that all "laws", principles or axioms that gave understanding to what is a very complex subject to begin with, have all been tossed out the window. As in all human affairs, what is clear is that when systems do achieve levels of complexity of this magnitude where the subject matter does become unintelligible, that or those systems will collapse and either revert to the simpler principles of that system or shift into a new form that will also be simpler.

There are many schools of thought on matters of finance just as there many schools of thought on economics. I subscribe to the Austrian economics. In finance I have subscribed to no school of thought. Instead I look at what they all have to say and pick and choose among them according to what I think I understand of them and hold it up to "the light" of Austrian thought to see what lines up and what don't. This is difficult simply because the markets are the product of human action and they go off in directions that are often hard to predict. Like any other action viewed over a period of time there are patterns, however complex, illogical or inane they may be on a daily basis. It is here where trends emerge that evince a pattern and from the patterns that emerge a direction and end can be extrapolated.

Hyperinflation is indeed in the cards. The pattern of "money creation" done by the fed makes this frightfully clear. Before that hyperinflation hits though there is a process of of deleveraging (paying off debts) that is happening right now. This deleveraging appears to be the dreaded deflation (decrease in the supply of money). And it is deflation.

I know, that sounds contradictory, however, fed "money creation" is but one part of the "money creation" mechanism. The oft-ignored part of the "money creation" mechanism is part and parcel of the modern fractional reserve banking system. Because we have a fractional reserve banking system this allows each and every bank in this system to "create money" on demand. This is done each and every time anybody demands a loan from any bank in this system and the bank makes that loan. Rather than wearing out my fingers typing out the process and making your eyes glaze over from all that boring reading I would highly recommend spending the 47 minutes needed to watch this video:  Money as Debt (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279). It is a google video but there may be other sources if you're so inclined.

It is this money, the money loaned by banks, that is being deleveraged (vaporized). The money from the fed is NOT being deleveraged (at least not to the degree that bank loan money is). The end result must therefore be a tsunami of inflation about to roll over the US of A. This deleveraging of bank loan money is a process of money destruction (vaporizing). In deed this is deflation BUT this deflation is being countered by FED inflation(increase in the supply of money). This is also why the FED has been so anxious to bailout the banks and not really bailing out anyone else. This is also why banks are NOT making loans at the moment (at least on the scale they made them in previous years). This is also why banks that issue credit cards are scaling back lines of credit even to reliable, bill-paying customers. This is also part of why banks are NOT financing homes or making home equity loans. The banks know full well that they are in very deep doo-doo. Business debt and consumer debt are to the point that both markets can no longer support the debt load. The consumer is tapped out. Businesses are tapped out. It is now going to feed on itself in an orgy of self-destruction. The fed is now doing everything it can to save itself and it's partner, the fractional reserve banking system. The fed is doing this by by attempting to support it's partner, the banking system which is, in a bizarre twist of the fed obfuscating  understanding, themselves. Remember, the fed is a private enterprise made up of private banks. In saving the banks, they are saving themselves. Whether by debt or by taxation, they are doing it at your expense.

This is why it is so important to have and to hold physical gold and silver. These metals are the only practical way to : 1) step out side of the current imposed system of finance/economics, 2) preserve whatever wealth you have in goods, 3) have a good that is easily exchangeable anywhere in the world against the failure of gov-issued currency and finally, 4) a basis for at least the beginning of building another or new system of exchange.

I know. This is all so repetitious. We are, however, at that point in time that has been discussed for so long. It would appear that we are on the brink of a global change that few have even imagined. Among those who professionally work to understand the markets and make a profit for themselves and their clients there seems to be a growing consensus of the idea that not only are we in a recession but more than likely we are in the early stages of a genuine depression. Among those in consensus there is a growing group, small though it may be, that have moved into to calling the current situation something much more extreme than just a depression. They use terms like global collapse, global implosion, super-cycle bear market and so on. Among those who subscribe to Elliot Wave Theory (actual practitioners, not wannabes) some are calling this situation something equivalent to the end of a super-cycle, thereby implying something akin to a global collapse. Even among the more popular schools of thought which are not only statist and supporters of the status quo, words such as depression and those mentioned above are gaining traction.

Even governments are visibly afraid. Not of conjured boogey-men like that Al Quaeda guy or others filling the role of Emmanuel Goldstein. No, they fear for their continued existence and some even fear for their lives. This has been going on for some time now and their fear only continues to deepen. As ignorant, incompetent and outright stupid as some are they nevertheless have been building bulwarks in laws and bureaucracies in a vain attempt to protect themselves from the inevitable.

It has long been my contention that centralized power cannot exist and function without a form of centralized money in their control. This has been true of of ancient civilizations, of kingdoms or of any form of modern state. I really believe the truth of this is about to be discovered to the world. We will see municipalities fall, states fall and even nations fall and all such falls will be traced directly to the existence and use of centralized currencies.  As the currencies continue in their self-destruction so to will governments at every level, in every nation follow the currency right to their end. An end that can come none to soon to suit me.

The only questions left to answer at this point are 1) what will it take to get through the current and growing madness? and 2) what will emerge on the other side as communities and societies reorganize? The first is not so hard and many in this forum and others are active in the course of preparation. The more difficult question of what is to come afterward is still being sorted out and probably will be until such time an answer is required.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 07, 2008, 11:46:34 am
I think the mere fact that a mainstream rag like Barron's is discussing the possibility of hyperinflation speaks volumes. What do you think?

I suspect he is writing what he is told to write.  His statement that "You can't add it to the monetary base until it's in someone's bank account." could be charitably described as misleading, more accurately a deliberate lie or evidence of gross ignorance on his part.

The plain fact, as shown by the Federal reserves own reports (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/), is that some $630 billion of this amount is ALREADY in the monetary base.  It is "in someone's bank account."  That's a significant fraction of the $8 trillion total, and the monetary base is the point of the inverted pyramid that allows the overlying layers to inflate, typically at 10:1 or 20:1.  That $630 billion of "hot money" will probably turn into over $6 trillion in new debt and credit someday.  There are already signs in M1 and MZM that this money is starting to make its way into the wider economy.

Since Mr. McTague makes such a stupid error, I'm inclined to dismiss the rest of his drivel and add his name to the list of state apologists whose contributions to the sum of knowledge are negative.

But since you ask, I'll point out that another deliberate (or ignorant) error he makes is treating deflation as mutually exclusive to inflation.  It is not, even when the terms are incorrectly applied to price changes rather than changes in the money supply.

Everyone knows this from personal experience.  For the past decade, the prices of computers dropped (which McTague would call deflation) while the price of houses exploded (inflation.)  Both trends were sustained and distinctly larger than the general rise in prices over that period.

Today we are experiencing a (probably temporary) drop in gas prices, which the liars immediately factor into the "inflation" figures, as it looks good.  In bygone times, legal tender laws drove silver out of circulation in favor of gold, or vice versa.  One money was deflated (its purchasing power increased) another inflated.  Both can, and do, happen at the same time.  Treating them as mutually exclusive is the same tired trick as painting every political view as liberal or conservative, thereby blocking even acknowledgment of principled alternative views.

Ron Paul is right, because he understands both the underlying economic principles and history.  Once new money is created, it is almost never destroyed voluntarily.  All of those new billions in the monetary base will be added to, and will eventually be released into the larger economy.

The trick here is that there will be a delay.  How long?  That's what's hard to say, but certainly long enough so that the rubes and those who listen  to apologists like McTague or Krugman will not make the connection.  Perhaps as soon as next spring, more likely a year or so from now, but eventually the effects of increasing a monetary base built over 95 years by 75% in 2 freaking months will be felt by all of us, to our detriment.  There is no way the Fed can re-adsorb the loot without collapsing the financial system that is the source of their power.  Inflation, and very probably hyperinflation, is baked into the cake.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on December 07, 2008, 11:57:07 am
Hyperinflation is indeed in the cards. The pattern of "money creation" done by the fed makes this frightfully clear. Before that hyperinflation hits though there is a process of of deleveraging (paying off debts) that is happening right now. This deleveraging appears to be the dreaded deflation (decrease in the supply of money). And it is deflation.

I know, that sounds contradictory, however, fed "money creation" is but one part of the "money creation" mechanism.

Quote from: Silver
But since you ask, I'll point out that another deliberate (or ignorant) error he makes is treating deflation as mutually exclusive to inflation.  It is not, even when the terms are incorrectly applied to price changes rather than changes in the money supply.

Precisely. I'm sure a lot of us here get that, in spades. But it seems a constant characteristic of MSM economic analysis (and perhaps I should put "analysis" in quotes) that the commentators tend to make projections only from what's happening now. Housing going up? Better get in before you're priced out of the market! Inflation? Well, then we must be prosperous. Or better "do something" to cool down the over-heated economy. Deflation? Well, thank heaven we're safe from the dragon of hyperinflation.

It's fascinating that anybody in the MSM is even addressing the question of hyperinflation at this point; that's something I'd expect to be way off their radar -- until it's actually showing up in those "red wheelbarrows."

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 07, 2008, 03:13:06 pm
I think the MSM is mentioning hyperinflation because too many people have seen the graph of the monetary base over the past 95 years.

You don't need to be an economist too look at this graph (http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/page3.pdf)  from the St. Louis Fed and think "This can't be good."  Respected economists the world over are alarmed at the 1400% annualized increase (it abated in the last 2-week reporting period). 

So I think the MSM gets told to pooh-pooh a few easy targets - they sneer at Ron Paul and use derisive terms like "gold bugs," but don't mention John Williams, Johann Santer, Jim Rogers, Robin Griffiths, Jurg Kiener, Puru Saxena,or a staggering host of others who make their living by understanding real-world economics. All of these people are warning of the impending hyperinflation.  They differ, if at all, only on the timing and likely course of the destruction. Instead the MSM quotes unnamed "economic experts" at the beginning of the article who assure us that there is no danger.

It's pathetic, and more and more people are seeing through it.  That's why demand for gold is literally skyrocketing, with shortages in small coins and bars unseen in living memory.  That comes from millions of individuals who are no longer buying the party line.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on December 07, 2008, 04:23:45 pm
Well Silver, again you have proved to be kinder than I would have been and this time with the MSM. INRBs (inbreds will work too)are what I think of them (Ignorant News Reading Buffoons). Too often the truth is handed to them on a golden platter and they ALWAYS reach for the next question which they seem to think will improve their ratings rather than giving due consideration to what was handed to them on that golden platter. I fail to understand how any person can be so full of clamor as to miss reality on such a consistent basis. I really can't stand MSM.

Yes. Jim Rogers, Puru Saxena, Marc Faber and a host of others are indeed relevant and the time to listen to them, even if you have to tolerate MSM blatherscytes, is well spent. There are plenty of fine men and women "out there" who have a far superior understanding of what's happening financially than any INRB on any snooze channel.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 17, 2008, 04:26:51 pm
Celent is a New York financial research firm.  They have published a report showing that there is no credit crisis.  The report itself is available only to clients, but a summary can be viewed (http://www.celent.com/PressReleases/20081210/WhatCreditCrisis.asp). 

Declan McCullagh got a copy of the report and posted on the LewRockwell.com blog (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/024458.html#more).  He noted that "Celent calculates that the M0 money supply (the monetary base) "has recently increased at a pace never seen before in US history," and has increased as much in the last 90 days as it has in the last 83 years." "  He reprinted the last page of the report.  It reads:

Quote
   
    A Brief Look at the Money Supply

    We finish our report by examining some of the policy impacts that have become visible over the past few weeks. Figure 27 shows the most basic measure of money supply in the US, M0, which is also referred to as the monetary base. This measure of money supply consists of currency in circulation and bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve. As can be seen from this chart, there has been an entirely unprecedented increase in the money supply. By the week of 3 December 2008, the money supply was a staggering $630 billion, or 74% higher than it was during the week of 3 September 2008. An increase of this size in the past took on the order of a decade.

    Such an increase in the monetary base should be cause for alarm, and would normally be seen as an indicator of a pending bought of hyperinflation. There may, however, be more benign explanations. On 9 October, the Federal Reserve started paying interest on banks’ reserves held at the central bank. This certainly has made the holding of reserves more attractive to banks, which shifted more of their funds into reserves.

    If banks are holding far higher reserves simply in response to the appeal of receiving interest from the Federal Reserve, then there is little cause for concern. However, this action does merit some further explanation from the Federal Reserve. Normally, when a central bank wishes to stimulate greater lending by banks, it encourages banks to reduce reserves, not increase them, since reserves funds are bank funds that would otherwise be available for lending.

    A thorough analysis of the recent increase in the monetary base is beyond the scope of this report, and is a topic for further research. However, one might be excused for thinking that the frequent comparisons with the Great Depression of 1929 are not the most apt. Perhaps the economic crisis in the Weimar Republic some seven years earlier could provide a better comparison.

(emphasis added)

Indeed.

Peace,

Silver
Title: SCENARIOS FOR US TREASURY BOND ATTACK
Post by: byron mc on December 22, 2008, 10:15:07 am
Quote
The points of USDollar and USTBond vulnerability are so diverse that a list of potential scenarios for foreign attack is impossible to catalog in less than 100 pages.
A summary will be offered, in a list of 15 points, without detailed development of attack laid out.
you have to read these.

SOVEREIGN & COLONIAL THREATS TO THE US
Quote
The USTreasury could resist a default by printing USTBonds by deploying heavily the montetization process, thus putting the USDollar into a hyper-inflation condition.

Once the Chinese mortgage collection has been consolidated, and the inevitable crisis reaches crescendo, conversion to property repossession (hard assets) could be possible, but not without a difficult political resistance and implementation process.

Quote
The key is that CHINA WOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS TO CONVERT USTREASURY BONDS INTO MORTGAGE BONDS, LATER INTO DIVERSE PROPERTY TITLES.
Any ensuing foreclose process would require Chinese bankers to remove the Americans from their homes, and replace them with Chinese. That is called colonization,


US BANISHED TO GLORIFIED THIRD WORLD


14 September 2008
http://www.eeng.net/EENG/HatTrickLetter/sept2008_v2.html
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Wheatfields on December 26, 2008, 06:14:57 am
Hello Folks,

After a week of lurking and catching up, I took the plunge, and you have a new registered member of the community.  This thread has been very instructive, and contains many gems for someone slowly getting up to speed.  Thank you to the posters who have spent so much time and thought in adding to this valuable discussion.

Several of the posts have spoken about stockpiling dimes, silver dollars and "junk silver".  As a  prepper focusing on food and such, let's say I have 50 or 100FRN's to apply.  What do I get and where do I get it?  Is it rolls of dimes from a bank?  Actual silver dollars, again from the bank?  This will surely reveal a glaring lack of knowledge to the world, but my efforts have been directed elsewhere.

I am grateful for all the info and insights gained from reading these threads.  It is helping to develop my family's security.

Wheatfields
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on December 26, 2008, 06:47:27 am
Several of the posts have spoken about stockpiling dimes, silver dollars and "junk silver".  As a  prepper focusing on food and such, let's say I have 50 or 100FRN's to apply.  What do I get and where do I get it?  Is it rolls of dimes from a bank?  Actual silver dollars, again from the bank?  This will surely reveal a glaring lack of knowledge to the world, but my efforts have been directed elsewhere.

http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Coins_Rolls__Bags.aspx

Not a lot of choices for only $50 to $100, but a few. More if you were to put together a joint purchase. Your local coin shop might also be able to provide some alternatives. Circulated 90% silver coins contain about 0.715 troy ouces of silver per dollar of face value. That will let you calculate the premium, so you can see if you're paying for silver or for collectible value. In small quantities, silver bullion is going these days for between 10% and 40% over the spot price.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on December 26, 2008, 10:09:54 am
Several of the posts have spoken about stockpiling dimes, silver dollars and "junk silver".  As a  prepper focusing on food and such, let's say I have 50 or 100FRN's to apply.  What do I get and where do I get it?  Is it rolls of dimes from a bank?  Actual silver dollars, again from the bank?  This will surely reveal a glaring lack of knowledge to the world, but my efforts have been directed elsewhere.

http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Coins_Rolls__Bags.aspx

Not a lot of choices for only $50 to $100, but a few. More if you were to put together a joint purchase. Your local coin shop might also be able to provide some alternatives. Circulated 90% silver coins contain about 0.715 troy ouces of silver per dollar of face value. That will let you calculate the premium, so you can see if you're paying for silver or for collectible value. In small quantities, silver bullion is going these days for between 10% and 40% over the spot price.

When I bought from them back in Sept I paid $1,052 for a $100 face value bag of all dimes.
Shipping was another $25 [$24.95]
The spot price then was $14 +/- IIRC.

I like Apmex.  I think they did me right ....  but what do I know from ha'lyards and buntlines ?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on December 26, 2008, 10:20:52 am
Hello Folks,

After a week of lurking and catching up, I took the plunge, and you have a new registered member of the community.  This thread has been very instructive, and contains many gems for someone slowly getting up to speed.  Thank you to the posters who have spent so much time and thought in adding to this valuable discussion.

Several of the posts have spoken about stockpiling dimes, silver dollars and "junk silver".  As a  prepper focusing on food and such, let's say I have 50 or 100FRN's to apply.  What do I get and where do I get it?  Is it rolls of dimes from a bank?  Actual silver dollars, again from the bank?  This will surely reveal a glaring lack of knowledge to the world, but my efforts have been directed elsewhere.

I am grateful for all the info and insights gained from reading these threads.  It is helping to develop my family's security.

Wheatfields


When we speak of "junk" silver, we speak of pre-1965 coins.  These coins are composed of 90% silver as opposed to those coins minted in 1965 and beyond.  The cost of these coins is based on the current (or "spot") price of silver.  Added to this price is a premium based on many thing such as overhead and supply & demand.  

Currently, there is a high demand for silver and, therefore, the premium is high.  For instance, the price for $100.00 face value of junk silver at Northwest Territorial Mint (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_bags.php) (Note: I have not purchased from NTM) is $1100.00.  The amount of silver in $100.00 face value of junk silver is about 72 ozt.  The spot price of silver is $10.39.  So, based on the spot price of silver:

$10.39 X 72 = $748.08 worth if silver @ spot.  
$1100.00 - $748.08 = $351.92 premium.  

Historically, this is a high premium for junk silver, but apparently, the demand greatly exceeds the supply, right now.  

As far as starting your own "hoard", try local coin dealers.  Generally, the smaller the quantity, the higher the premium.

Also, a good place to start about precious metals is the Got Gold (https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=1083.0) thread.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on December 28, 2008, 01:38:09 pm
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by
credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner
as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as
a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
                                                                               --[wiki]Ludwig von Mises[/wiki][/b]
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on December 28, 2008, 03:21:05 pm
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by
credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner
as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as
a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
                                                                               --[wiki]Ludwig von Mises[/wiki][/b]

It is important for each and every one of us to understand this. If you don't understand, or don't believe it, hie thyself to mises.org's bookshelf (http://www.mises.org/store/For-Beginners-C9.aspx) and study up in a real big hurry.

While there is NO WAY for our economy to avoid its final and total catastrophe, we can survive it.  This depends on your preparations and adaptations.  Get cracking on both.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on December 28, 2008, 08:38:04 pm
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by
credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner
as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as
a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
                                                                               --[wiki]Ludwig von Mises[/wiki][/b]

It is important for each and every one of us to understand this. If you don't understand, or don't believe it, hie thyself to mises.org's bookshelf (http://www.mises.org/store/For-Beginners-C9.aspx) and study up in a real big hurry.

While there is NO WAY for our economy to avoid its final and total catastrophe, we can survive it.  This depends on your preparations and adaptations.  Get cracking on both.

Or you could just sit around and wait for the live lesson. Toward the end of Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan's time in office he coined a phrase in one of his speeches, "cascading  cross-defaults". It encapsulates the financial/economic equivalent of the domino theory. As one piece goes over so will the next and the next and so on until all pieces fall.

Lately I've been mentioning the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Here's a brief summary of what it is:
There are basically 5 types of ships that move stuff around...

Container ships - you can figure that one out, finished products.

Bulkers - dry cargo such as iron ore and grains, finished steel, coal etc.

Tankers - liquid bulk, oil, chemicals molasses etc.

Ro Ro - that is roll on/ roll off for cars etc.

Reefers - bananas, oranges and such.

The BDI covers the second type; Bulkers, which are bulk commodity. In short, demand for raw goods is way down and this speaks loudly of future industrial activity. As you will note in housing starts, it was the a leading indicator of what was to come. The crash in the BDI does not speak well for our future economic prospects, like housing starts indicated a problem was upon us, so to does the drop in the freight rates. An additional fact that should not be overlooked is the price of fuel is way down so this would impact freight rates in addition to demand for vessels.

The Greeks have a long history in shipping and they are more predominant in the Bulker arena, and less active in container has been my experience. For now it just means that things are going to be slow from an economic standpoint. A number of the ships could find themselves with an early ending, low-balling a freight load and ending up close to the graving docks in India. Most of the inactive ships will likely remain at anchor with a skeleton crew, hoping this blows over soon.

While the BDI paints a bleak picture, the drop in bunker fuel has crashed too. Because of this, I would find steel output to be a better leading indicator, not impacted with the swing in energy prices. FYI, ship bookings for the Marine Exchange which covers the two busiest ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach are reporting a 30% fall in ship bookings for the first 6 months of 2009 compared to 2008.

Now, with that brief description and forward view in mind, here are some more assorted links (news reports and anecdotal stuff) to help start really piecing together the pieces for what this will mean for 2009: The following post is NOT mine BUT emphasis is added
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yet more on the ramifications of the crashing Baltic Dry Index‏

FYI - I recently heard of the BDI on both DailyPaul.com and RonPaulForums.com.

My interpretation was that the ships are empty because there is *no demand* for them, because companies are not restocking their raw material inventories.

My own thinking (not necessarily the raw material shipments): I've seen articles that Toyota has *acres* of new cars that no one wants. How many shipments have been unnecessary?

If durable good purchases are down, how many shipments have not been necessary?

If housing (and commercial?) construction is down, how many shipments have not been necessary?

Gary North "Reality Check/Daily Reckoning" newsletters have discussed the ramifications of the Baltic Dry Index:
- Issue 805, November 11, 2008, CHINA PULLS THE SECOND TRIGGER
- Reality Check - Deflation Now...Inflation Later, Mon, 03 Nov 2008

Here is a graph linked from one of them: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?...=IND&x=15&y=11

And as the article quoted below points out, if shipments have dropped to the bottom, then there is no need for train/truck transportation, either.

Read these three posts :
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=1844862&postcount=1
Economic Death Watch

Alot of people know the economy is going south, but many may not realize how bad this is going to get.

Link November 26, 2008
http://www.metalprices.com/metalNews.asp?id=i4925076847723544640&svc=ODJ%20&title=MARKET%20TALK:%20Baltic%20Dry%20Index%20Drops%20To%2021-Year%20Low%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20(Dow%20Jones)%20&date=11/26%C2%A014:07:20
"DJ MARKET TALK: Baltic Dry Index Drops To 21-Year Low

1407 GMT (Dow Jones) Baltic Exchange Dry Index drops 41 points to 763, its
lowest level since January 1987, as a lack of momentum in steel prices has
removed any near-term catalyst from the market, says Omar Nokta at Dalhman
Rose. The average Capesize rate has been "assessed lower 36 out of the past 37
trading days," he notes, with the time charter average for Capesizes at $2,773
Wednesday. Nokta adds a large backlog of vessels remains in ballast in both the
Atlantic and Pacific due to the sluggish steel demand. BDI -44%, or 339 points,
from 1102 a month ago. (APA) "


The Baltic Dry index is a survey of the average cost for shipping raw materials.
It cannot be manipulated like unemployment and GDP figures. It is not a traded
index, just an average survey of shipping costs from point A to B.

It has collapsed in the last couple of months (Down ~95% from May). Raw materials are not being shipped. This means metal,lumber,grain etc....

Without the raw materials, factories will not be able to make finished goods.
This means no factory jobs and no goods for store shelves.
No goods mean nothing to transport.
Nothing to transport means no trucking/rail shipments
No shipments mean transport companies go bankrupt.
This means there may be no one to ship the vital supplies (food,medicine,gasoline)


Forget the stock market it's like a body that doesn't know its dead yet.....


FWIW the dry index lost another 30 points today.

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report *** A link to a PDF: http://www.irwebpage.com/dryships/fi...pres110308.pdf

===================================
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=1844940&postcount=2

Trucking is almost dead as it is... all you have to do is go drive on a major Interstate. There are hardly any trucks.

You are correct on your post; things are on a true collapse. There is something else pretty major coming very soon that unfortunately I am not at liberty to discuss but it is all pointing to a major SHTF type event in late Feb 09 or early Mar 09. As soon as more people are in the loop I will be posting about it. I just happen to be lucky enough to have a friend the works in a position of trust that he is privy to this info. The only reason I even know is because we have been friends for 32 years and there is total trust... he knows I will keep my mouth shut until he says differently.

We are honestly about to experience things here in the U.S. none of us have ever had to experience before. I can not express how damn important it is RIGHT NOW, not next week or the week after but RIGHT NOW to go stock up on essentials and food/water. People need to start taking all these warnings seriously and stop walking around like the living dead before they find themselves becoming the non-living variety.

Be safe and Happy Thanksgiving to you.
===================================
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=1844970&postcount=6

Cargo shipping. The Index tracks the cost of sending raw materials via ship.
It is below operating costs right now....

This means no one is shipping anything.

On top of this I know a guy who works at a transport terminal, i.e. trucks and railcars come in to either pick up cargo from a port, or drop it off.

They normally would do 1000 containers a day, and 1100+ during the holidays.
It went down to about 350 or so a couple weeks ago.

Last I heard from him it was so dead he took a nap for an hour and a half at work, and no one even noticed....

==================================


Civil Unrest in China and Empty Ships

Posted: 23 Dec 2008 07:42 PM PST

The deflationary credit contraction and revenge of the gold standard is leading to significant civil unrest throughout the world and I have mentioned Iceland, Greece and now the behemoth China. The illusory and evaporating FRN$ is the world reserve currency and the root cause of these problems. It is not surprising that public sentiment is fomenting as the Federal Reserve has enemies.

The job market in China is flooded by 20M new workers each year. The 20 year growth in the standard of living of the average Chinese may be slowing down or coming to an end unless their leaders instigate change. Dongguan a large city in Southern China has exprienced massive street riots after factory owners fled without paying employees. The slowdown in the world economy has led to less demand for Chinese exports. Factories have closed leaving 6.7M workers in China without their jobs. If this trend remains then the unemployed Chinese could be a significant political force.

[]

Diana Shipping (DSX), Paragon Shipping (PRGN), Excel Maritime (EXM) and DryShips (DRYS) are all from Greece. Along with Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) and Genco Shipping and Trading (GNK) they will all have a very difficult time going forward. Their balance sheets are filled with empty boats and bloated debt. As the Baltic Dry Index makes painfully clear from the excess supply and declining demand there is no bottom line without a top line and therefore their income statements are going to take a beating. The end result will be a hemorraging of cash to service debt on empty ships with no tourniquet in sight.

If this economic slowdown continues, which it will because this is an immoveable deflationary credit contraction, these shipping companies will be in serious trouble. There is no demand for Chinese trinkets to fill these depreciating empty ships and the insidious debt still has to be serviced. Even being down 70-90% from their highs I do not think these shipping stocks are a very good value.

As the world economy slows towards stasis capital will continue seeking the safest and most liquid assets. Currently, capital has piled into T-Bills or unsafe money market funds and driven yields down tremendously and the zero-interest rate environment is leading to negative real returns. As a result gold has been flirting with backwardation. But the largest bubble of them all, the FRN$, is searching for a golden pin and is going to find one. After all, that is the only cure for the Financial Insanity Virus that is sweeping the globe. But there is a truly safe place for holders of capital that provides immunity to the FIV and that is to be ensconced in the invincible and immoveable golden forcefield.

http://www.runtogold.com/ (third post down last I checked)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This sounds like a very practical lesson in "cascading cross-defaults" with the additional bonus of a lesson in the impacts of local and national markets for all goods  collapsing.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lightning on December 28, 2008, 08:43:28 pm
Alton, this is heavy-duty stuff, thanks for posting it.     :mellow:

But I'm getting 404 errors on your Ron Paul forum links.   :huh:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on December 28, 2008, 09:06:22 pm
Alton, this is heavy-duty stuff, thanks for posting it.     :mellow:

But I'm getting 404 errors on your Ron Paul forum links.   :huh:

Thanks for the heads-up Lightning! Links corrected and post modified. (links were truncated)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 31, 2008, 12:12:46 pm
The fed has resumed its incredible expansion of the monetary base, aka M0, hot money.

After taking a break November 19 - December 3 (Do banksters celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday?) the digital equivalent of the printing press created another 189 gigaFRNs between December 4 and December 17.  That's 156 kiloFRNs per second, 24x7, for two weeks.  It took just over 6 seconds to create another million "dollars."

What's more, and much worse, the leaky dam the Fed has erected in an attempt to keep all this new money from pouring into the wider economy is now leaking badly.  A high rate of inflation is virtually guaranteed sometime in mid-2009.  The broadest measure of the money supply is M3, the narrowest is M0.  M3 is no longer reported by the fed (Do banksters feel shame?) but John Williams at Shadowstats.com tracks it.  The annualized rate of M3 growth for the last four weeks has been an astonishing 38%.  If this trend persists, and there is little reason to think it won't, money creation will soon reach the highest level in the sordid history of the fed.

This is extremely bad news even at a time where bad news comes in floods.  The fed will ruin us all in its futile attempt to prop up a failed, immoral, and utterly corrupt financial system.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on December 31, 2008, 02:19:56 pm
Part of those gigaFRNs maybe going to cover the gigaFRNs that simply vaporized over the past year. Check this: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/12/topwrap_3-more_economic_pain_s.php

Another part may be used to cover the AIG mess (this is going to get so much uglier) which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the US govt. (of course that means that you and I are on the hook for all that AIG owes...thank your US representative). Here's a link: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2008/12/latest_madoff_v.php  Business tip: I bet effigies of Bernard Madoff will be a "hot" item soon.

Even the boys at the CFR are getting a little upset: ttp://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/12/29/the-collapse-of-financial-globalization/  (cut & paste and add the "h" at the beginning)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on January 02, 2009, 05:40:19 pm
Bloomberg: Tallying Trillions in Bailout, Bankruptcy: Commentary Dec. 31  (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aYwo1tZqGFgA)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on January 11, 2009, 02:13:14 pm
two--four.net (http://www.two--four.net)

It Really Is What It Is (http://www.two--four.net/weblog.php?id=P4286)

"Perry... if there was a 'fight', I would be ass-deep in it and
right shoulder-to-shoulder with you. What we're doing is not
a fight. Not any more. Matters are already past anything we
can do in blogs, now,
and they will be for a long time to come.
You can doubt me if you want, but you'll see.

We're going to go all the way through this -- the whole bloody
lesson-plan that should have been the overweening moral of
the twentieth century -- again. Don't you see it? The biggest and
last domino is falling right now in front of your eyes.
...
[/list]

(Empasis added.)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on January 15, 2009, 10:08:37 am
Keeping up on the Baltic Dry Index (international shipping): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on January 17, 2009, 12:39:48 am
The SMS Dry Index is setting off alarm bells. 

Since our return to the lower left-hand corner, the rail traffic has been strong and steady.  Over 100 railcars every two hours 24-hours a day, 7-days a week run the rails nearby.

About a week or so ago they stopped.  No, I mean they STOPPED!  !!!   

Lumber, autos, bulk grain, bulk liquid a gazillion anonymous cargo containers ... hard to tell what all, but it all quit flowing.

Maybe one or two trains a day on this major E-W rail corridor.

Thor's hammer is coming down.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on January 17, 2009, 06:40:28 am
The SMS Dry Index is setting off alarm bells. 

Is that the SlideManSailor Dry Index?

Quote
Since our return to the lower left-hand corner, the rail traffic has been strong and steady.  Over 100 railcars every two hours 24-hours a day, 7-days a week run the rails nearby.

Lower left-hand corner of what?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on January 17, 2009, 12:59:35 pm
The SMS Dry Index is setting off alarm bells. 

Is that the SlideManSailor Dry Index?


Hahaha!  :sign10:

Slidemansailor does have a good idea there though. One of the largest rail yards (CONrail/old Penn Central) outside of Chicago is close enough that I get to hear EVERY train that comes in or goes out. I've been here long enough that I really don't notice them anymore. They are loud and some rumble the earth more than a mile from the tracks due to their heavy loads. They mostly tend to haul steel (raw/formed/scrap), coal, chemicals, grains, multi-modal shipping containers, machinery and military vehicles.

I will note that the Canadien National (old Grand Trunk) comes out of Michigan a few miles to the north and, of course, they are the main line for lumber and autos. The number of autos is definitely down (fewer rail cars on each train) and the number of lumber cars fell off in the early summer of last year. There's an overpass about a mile south of the state line and an underpass that was newly usable built in my town and opened to use this past fall. Prior to that you couldn't help but notice the loads because I tended to get stopped at the rail crossings quite often either because they were passing through or were making stops at one of two local lumber distributors. Fortunately, they don't seem to be tying up traffic too much nowadays.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on January 23, 2009, 07:52:32 am
More on shipping as it spreads inland. Rail shipments are down (as noted by slidemansailor): http://www.examiner.com/a-1809044%7EUS_rail_shipments_continue_to_tumble.html  Watch for thinning shelves at your local retailers.

On the seas we have an unusual situation. Shipping of goods remains low but is slightly increasing. The unusual situation has to do with oil. So much oil has been pumped out of the ground that now futures prices for oil are very low. It is now to the point that Exxon, Shell and other so-called big oil companies have purchased ahead and are running out of space to store the oil they have purchased. They are now storing it on ocean-going freighters. New work for ships: http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/more-vlccs-on-storage-duties-as-oil-price-contango-widens/20017607822.htm

Conversely, this also means rig counts (floating rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and other floating rigs) have dropped, some oil wells have been shut down, mining in the Canadian tar sands has slowed or stopped, mining Wyoming oil shale has slowed or stopped until the price of a barrel of oil goes up enough to cover the costs of reopening these wells and mines and restarting production.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on January 23, 2009, 12:39:24 pm
SMS Dry Index drops further.

I haven't heard or seen a train for days!
An independent trucker friend is about to lose his truck. He hasn't had a load contract for a month.  Up until a couple of months ago, he was rarely home.

SMS Consumer Confidence Index joins in.
Donations to Goodwill are low. We are having to ship donations from Montana where there is little thrift store competition to Idaho where there are many places to send cast-offs. That's happened before, but now even those are drying up. Scrambling to take donations for local thrifts with low processing capacity isn't even keeping up. (Goodwill stores move it through rather vigorously... needing fresh goods to replace that which didn't sell in a few weeks on the floor.)  We are in the unprecedented position of being unable to keep our sorters, taggers, hangers and rollers fully employed getting merchandise to the floor.

New customers are finding the Goodwill store for the first time.  "Gee this is kind of nice. I've never been here before."  People are buying clothes for their upcoming job interviews.

Yesterday two businessmen brought two trailerloads of office furniture and supplies in. They had to close their doors forever. They weren't happy donors... and we rolled their stuff onto the sales floor for pennies on the dollar.

We may be renting a vacated hardware mega-store building for $4/sq. ft... which compares favorably with some store space we are currently renting at $10/per.  The new one will be in addition to its expensive brother in a different market area.  I'll be surprised if commercial vacancies don't drive our other store's rent down.

Thrift stores do thrive in downturns... but I'm expecting regular donations to be our challenge.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 25, 2009, 08:18:19 am
The monetary base continues to explode. In the past two weeks, it has grown by $56.8 billion.  Year-over-year, it has grown $919 billion, an astonishing 119% increase, with nearly all the increase since late September 2008.  The money is getting into the broader economy, with the fed making significant upward revisions to M2 and institutional money funds.

Soon there will be a flood of dollars chasing a rapidly shrinking pool of food, fuel, and other assets.  Whether the torrent is released by banks finally disgorging the huge influx of dollars provided by the fed, or foreign central banks deciding to trade their increasingly worthless but massive hoards of FRNs for hard assets while they still can, the collaps of the dollar is imminent; it might not survive the year.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alton Speers on January 28, 2009, 09:57:54 am
107,000 rail freight cars mothballed: http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/international/2009/01/24-american-rail-freight.html
Big layoffs at BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe): http://nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2009/01/23/4979f232a0223
Wave of cancellations for oil tankers: http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/2009/1/pages/01252009_a0cb8821c9f54560b386da3768ec5b78.aspx

Then just for kicks, the Plum Island biological research center (Yes, the anthrax place) is getting moved to Kansas.: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1010441300421011200.html?mod=googlewsj

While I'm at it, just a reminder that the Dept of Homeland Security is watching out for your best interests: http://www.valleybreeze.com/Free/MAIN-SMI-SPY-IN-THE-SKY-FINAL
Employers seem to be helping out in watching out for your security: http://www.bloggernews.net/119442

Laughter is the best medicine so here's a little humor for your healing: http://dilbert.com/strips/

If you're feeling a little contemplative a few thoughts from Thomas Jefferson may help: http://www.jeffersonhour.org/?id=16

If you're concerned about social chaos Mad Max style, maybe it won't be so bad: http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5013#more

Then again...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHsmLdK0R74

The "Mormon Index" says things will get tough: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/religion/story/08BB87BA6856701B862575460004954D?OpenDocument

Which ever way it goes, there's always the Twinkie thread!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on January 29, 2009, 08:29:37 am
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21867.htm

Quote
Is It Time to Bail Out of the US?

By Paul Craig Roberts

January 28, 2009 "Information Clearinghouse" -- California State Controller John Chiang announced on January 26 that California’s bills exceed its tax revenues and credit line and that the state is going to print its own money known as IOUs. The template is already designed.

Instead of receiving their state tax refunds in dollars, California residents will receive IOUs. Student aid and payments to disabled and needy will also come in the form of IOUs. California is negotiating with banks to get them to accept the IOUs as deposits.

California is often identified as the world’s eighth largest economy, and it is broke.

Pretty good op-ed, in general (but then, everything from Paul Craig Roberts always is). Not just about California.

I was a little disappointed that it wasn't, as the title implies, about actually bailing out of the U.S.
Title: US Economy
Post by: byron mc on January 29, 2009, 08:54:20 am
Claire,
From the article:
Quote
the bailouts are--a total of $1.5 trillion in four months
(The US Federal Government bailouts)
Quote
Where will the money come from?

 Not America’s foreign creditors.

I think the article WAS about bailing out of the U.S. ...by Foreign creditors not buying US Treasury bonds. It just did not go into much detail about it.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on January 29, 2009, 11:04:07 am

I am often wrong in my understanding of peoples intention BUT I Think that Claire meant bailing out as in of an airplane [IOW Leaving the uS].

:twocents:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on January 29, 2009, 11:41:34 am

I am often wrong in my understanding of peoples intention BUT I Think that Claire meant bailing out as in of an airplane [IOW Leaving the uS].

:twocents:

You're right on this time, gooch. I clicked on the article originally because I thought it might be about an ex pat exodus. But byron_m is also right. The article is about "bailing out" in a different sense.

Hm. Funny how many connotations that term "bail out" has taken on lately ...

Will more Americans bail out of their country, becoming expatriates, because of all the gummint attempts to bail out the rich and foolish, causing the country to hope for further bail outs from China, but in the end succeeding only in making futile attempts to bail out a very leaky ship of state?

Claire
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on February 09, 2009, 01:35:17 am
There has been a sudden inexplicable spike in the SMS Dry Index. The trains are running again. Not backing up on the sidings and making me wait at the crossings like before Christmas, but still, I am hearing 3 or 4 a day, which is a BIG increase over the 1 every other day that it had fallen to.

Turns out that when the Wizard of Oz says he's concerned and going to do something ... everybody breathes a sigh of relief and spends money they don't have.

Gosh but that is comforting. :thrbarf:

On the other hand, the really good news is that I am running into a LOT more people who are stocking up and preparing for a serious downturn.  We were almost alone until quite recently. In the past few weeks I have run across several who are putting food in their pantries. 

This is a good sign... by contrast, the SMS Dry Index spike is simply sad.
Title: China continues to buy US Treasury bonds - USD will depreciate
Post by: byron mc on February 12, 2009, 08:07:01 am
Quote
China will continue to buy US Treasury bonds even though it knows the dollar will depreciate because such investments remain its “only option” in a perilous world, a senior Chinese banking regulator said on Wednesday.

"...US Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option.”


Quote
". . .we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do.”
  -Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ba857be6-f88f-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on February 13, 2009, 08:14:33 pm
One of the best articles I've seen concerning what we face.

Shorty Dawkins

Davos Debt & Denial
In an age of illusion, the guise of truth is often heresy
by Darryl Schoon | February 13, 2009
Print
The gathering of the world’s economic elites in Davos, Switzerland is a reflection of the reigning power dynamic of the modern world. Officially titled, the World Economic Forum, Davos is sponsored by the world’s most powerful and wealthy corporations and presents itself as a “not-for-profit” entity.

However, if you believe the annual gathering in Davos is not-for-profit, you probably also believe that JFK died of natural causes while sightseeing in Dallas. Those who attend Davos—the Davo’tees of Mammon—are the winners in the game of capitalism, a game based on debt controlled by bankers through their issuance of credit.

Investment bankers by virtue of their privileged position at the spigots of credit haveover the years garnered for themselves a disproportionate slice of the world’s wealth. The best description of their wealth is from a banker himself, Sir Josiah Stamp, at the time in1927 the 2nd richest man in England and former head of The Bank of England:

Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money.

FINANCIALSENSE.COM

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schoon/2009/0213.html
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on February 19, 2009, 08:51:34 pm
LRC (http://www.lewrockwell.com):

The Looming Collapse of European Banking (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north689.html)
by Gary North

The Telegraph revealed this last week. The original was almost
immediately deleted. A new version was substituted.
[/list]

Hey, Buddy, can you lend me a terabuck?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 25, 2009, 05:31:03 am
Good news!  Bernanke said that the recession will end this year!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090224/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Whoa.  Was that pig flying?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on February 25, 2009, 12:46:56 pm
Good news!  Bernanke said that the recession will end this year!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090224/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Whoa.  Was that pig flying?

Yahooo!  Does that mean it's time to buy some stock in GM and BAC?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 25, 2009, 08:22:22 pm

I think [and it usually gets me in trouble ....] that it's time to buy stock in ....

Remington, Winchester, Hornaday, Aguila et al.

Plus the three B's.

YMMV
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on February 25, 2009, 11:16:08 pm
was having a discussion t'other day and we were talking about fuel trucks not arriving as a sign to get ready to g.o.o.d. well, it seems that deliveries not arriving is starting, just not fuel yet. the local walmart was out of bananas and had a sign stating they hoped more would be in tomorrow. now, at this time of year, the suppliers for this basic commodity are usually ecuador, costa rica and nicaragua. these countries are just a couple days sail down the coast, not across the pacific. and it's not like the banana crop just disappeared.

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on February 26, 2009, 12:10:13 am
Being a "car guy", I remember seriously considering A BLOCK of Chrysler stock as historic wallpaper just before Lee Iacoca talked Congress into transferring funds from taxpayer to carmaker with its resulting Chrysler recovery.  I coulda made a tonna money on a lark ....but my luck doesn't run that way.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on February 26, 2009, 12:35:49 am
That makes pretty good sense Clarence.......because if there's not enough folks working making products that other folks want........ to make our money worth something........then it's not worth anything......and other countries don't want it.......so yes.....you get no bananas.......

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on February 26, 2009, 02:19:59 am
The newspaper in the only "major" city in the state stopped delivering to our area.  Beginning of abandoning rural areas?

Last night they called to ask if I received it.  Total incompetency?

The way the world ends...

Spatter
Title: Newspaper industry
Post by: byron mc on February 26, 2009, 09:06:20 am
February headlines
Third area newspaper folds
http://www.record-eagle.com/local/local_story_043094742.html

Quote
The number of major newspaper publishers seeking Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection during this business cycle has doubled over the past few days, to four. Joining Tribune Co. (December) and the Minneapolis Star Tribune (January) in bankruptcy court over the weekend were Philadelphia Newspapers LLC and Journal Register Co.
The bigger, sexier brands — New York Times, News Corp., Time Warner, Gannett, even Washington Post Co. — are all hurting
http://industry.bnet.com/media/10001036/newspapers-getting-in-line-at-bankruptcy-court/

San Francisco May Be Largest City to Lose Main Paper
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7W3v10uIRr0&refer=us

spatter,
Stopping delivery by independent contractors to rural addresses is just one way to reel in costs.

That industry has just been too much of a dinosaur to create a new business model with the Internet in the last 10 years. E-Book-style distribution will eventually replace printed newspapers/magazines in the mainstream. It just may take another 5 years.
Subscriptions vs. free content are where the next major battles will take place in that industry.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: spatter on February 26, 2009, 03:22:32 pm
We publish a special interest subscription newspaper (print and web) now and are about to launch a new, local paper. 

Small is better...

Spatter
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on February 26, 2009, 04:44:33 pm
That makes pretty good sense Clarence.......because if there's not enough folks working making products that other folks want........ to make our money worth something........then it's not worth anything......and other countries don't want it.......so yes.....you get no bananas.......



i don't think that the value of the dollar is the issue yet. it may be more that the banker's meltdown is affecting the credit that the shipowners need to keep those ships moving. there are many shipping companies around the world mothballing ships rather than lose money running cargo because the shipping rates have dropped off the face of a cliff. but, yea, either way, you get no bananas.

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 02, 2009, 10:32:19 am
Clarence,

Aircraft are backing up in the desert too.

Sinking air traffic leaves more planes mothballed in desert (http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=1333580)

Quote
More than 11% of the operational jet airliners in the world -- or almost 2,300 planes -- sit idle in the desert. Based on the additional 400 aircraft slated to be decommissioned this year, the percentage of parked planes should surpass the amount parked in the aftermath of 9/11 by the end of 2009,Mr. Seymour said.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 02, 2009, 06:32:06 pm
The Dow Ind. lost 299.64 today, finishing at 6763.29. The S & P lost 34.27, finishing at 700.82

Is that the fat lady coming into view?

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on March 02, 2009, 07:52:50 pm


I can't tell Shorty all these flying pigs keep getting in the way ....








 :rolleyes:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on March 03, 2009, 07:49:47 am
Quote
I can't tell Shorty all these flying pigs keep getting in the way ....

You flashin' back to the Pink Floyd concert again, gooch?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 03, 2009, 08:37:35 am
The Dow Ind. lost 299.64 today, finishing at 6763.29. The S & P lost 34.27, finishing at 700.82

Is that the fat lady coming into view?

Shorty Dawkins

Yes, the fat lady is singing.  The DOW below 6800 (not worth crap especially if you throw in inflation value since 1997), bank to bank interest rates non existant, oil below $50, and 3 month treasuries are 0.24 has me wondering where the heck the money is cause it surely isn't in gold which should be WAY above $1000.  To me, i think it's already over and ppl just don't know it yet.  It could take the better part of the year to figure it out.  I'm hoping ppl are buying the OTHER precious metals (guns and ammo) and puttting the rest into food.  If i'm wrong ppl will have extra food to eat and some fun shooting.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on March 03, 2009, 11:01:31 am
The Dow Ind. lost 299.64 today, finishing at 6763.29. The S & P lost 34.27, finishing at 700.82

Is that the fat lady coming into view?

Shorty Dawkins

Yes, the fat lady is singing.  The DOW below 6800 (not worth crap especially if you throw in inflation value since 1997), bank to bank interest rates non existant, oil below $50, and 3 month treasuries are 0.24 has me wondering where the heck the money is cause it surely isn't in gold which should be WAY above $1000.  To me, i think it's already over and ppl just don't know it yet.  It could take the better part of the year to figure it out.  I'm hoping ppl are buying the OTHER precious metals (guns and ammo) and puttting the rest into food.  If i'm wrong ppl will have extra food to eat and some fun shooting.

A quote of Richard Russell's from yesterdays "Remarks":


Quote
I think about the market maybe 20 hours a day (I sleep the other four hours, but I guess I even dream about the markets). Anyway, here's something that I came up with that shocked me. Let's take the bottom of the Great Depression when the Dow collapsed in July 1932 to 41 (it's never been lower than that since). Then let's take the Dow high in October 2007 at 14164. What's the halfway level of the entire climb from Dow 41 to Dow 14164? That halfway level is 7082. OK, Well, last Friday the Dow closed at 7062, 20 points BELOW 7082, the halfway level of that prodigious climb.

What does this mean? This means that as of last Friday the Dow has given back slightly more than half of all its gains since the bottom of the Great Depression. Think of that -- it shows us what horrendous damage has been done to the market since 2007. No wonder Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has lost half its value, so far, in this brutal bear market! Now Buffett tells us that the US economy will be "in shambles" for the rest of 2009.

Russell has written his newsletter since 1958, 51 consecutive years.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on March 03, 2009, 11:50:39 am
Quote
I can't tell Shorty all these flying pigs keep getting in the way ....

You flashin' back to the Pink Floyd concert again, gooch?

Huh ?  Wha ... ?


Tssssoup ....
{Chong accent ....}
Wo-ow .... Ni-i-ce traaails Maaan.
{/Chong accent}
Check it out flyin' pigs ....
Tssssoup ....

What ? Who Me ?
I ain't no Bogart maaan.
Here.
Don't burn your fingers ....


:thumbsup:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on March 03, 2009, 01:11:28 pm
Nervousness about today's economy is finally becoming common. The great masses are still hoping their savior is doing the right thing, though.

They may get it eventually.

(http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/519Sh4KCVVL._SL500_AA240_.jpg)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on March 03, 2009, 10:05:53 pm
Nervousness about today's economy is finally becoming common. The great masses are still hoping their savior is doing the right thing, though.

They may get it eventually.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/519Sh4KCVVL._SL500_AA240_.jpg

Slideman:

Hope is a 4-lettered word.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on March 03, 2009, 11:47:18 pm

Slideman:

Hope is a 4-lettered word.

So's Dope

I think they are related.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on March 04, 2009, 10:48:57 am
Yes, the fat lady is singing.  The DOW below 6800 (not worth crap especially if you throw in inflation value since 1997), bank to bank interest rates non existant, oil below $50, and 3 month treasuries are 0.24 has me wondering where the heck the money is cause it surely isn't in gold which should be WAY above $1000.  To me, i think it's already over and ppl just don't know it yet.  It could take the better part of the year to figure it out.  I'm hoping ppl are buying the OTHER precious metals (guns and ammo) and puttting the rest into food.  If i'm wrong ppl will have extra food to eat and some fun shooting.

Silver is the only precious metal I'm able to afford right now but it is getting harder to purchase it.  The demand really seems to be picking up.  I've really changed my way of thinking about food since I first came to this site.  Along with storing it, I'm now learning how to grow it.  I guess it is that whole, "give a man a fish" type of thing.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 04, 2009, 06:14:11 pm
Yes, the fat lady is singing.  The DOW below 6800 (not worth crap especially if you throw in inflation value since 1997), bank to bank interest rates non existant, oil below $50, and 3 month treasuries are 0.24 has me wondering where the heck the money is cause it surely isn't in gold which should be WAY above $1000.  To me, i think it's already over and ppl just don't know it yet.  It could take the better part of the year to figure it out.  I'm hoping ppl are buying the OTHER precious metals (guns and ammo) and puttting the rest into food.  If i'm wrong ppl will have extra food to eat and some fun shooting.

Silver is the only precious metal I'm able to afford right now but it is getting harder to purchase it.  The demand really seems to be picking up.  I've really changed my way of thinking about food since I first came to this site.  Along with storing it, I'm now learning how to grow it.  I guess it is that whole, "give a man a fish" type of thing.

Nah, become a Mormon (my wife and I did) and get a built in family who love to help others out and access to the canning machine and supplies at a cost you can't even imagine. 

Seriously though as I was researching stuff I came accross alot of their writings and such on food storage and liked what i heard.  I requested information and met with a couple of missionaires.  They were easy going and we not pressuring.  They just wanted to help.  I went to the church once and that was all i needed cause i was hooked.  The people their are actually normal folks like many of us here with their own problems and concerns but enjoy helping others FIRST...which is odd in this day and age.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Klapton Isgod on March 04, 2009, 06:15:37 pm
Do they know you are an anarchist?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 08, 2009, 12:56:53 pm
Duh! It suddenly dawned on me why there is a big push for nationalizing the banks: The Amero is coming!!!

I was chatting with Elias. According to him the announced startup for the Amero is Jan. 1(I believe he said it was on the CFR website). Looks like we are doomed, as there will need to be more chaos for them to slide it in. Lots more chaos, as there is lots of opposition to it.
I'm thinking several big bank failures, GM and Chrysler failing, and maybe GE, all in a short period of time frame. Celente thinks this month there will be a big meltdown, I've seen others that think April. Either way, it is close.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Harleqwin on March 09, 2009, 07:22:25 pm
The Amero is coming!!!
...cut...
(I believe he said it was on the CFR website).
...cut...
 Celente thinks this month there will be a big meltdown, I've seen others that think April. Either way, it is close.

Shorty, do you have any links for the above?  I'd sure like to read that for myself!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on March 09, 2009, 08:46:37 pm
The Amero is coming!!!
...cut...
(I believe he said it was on the CFR website).
...cut...
 Celente thinks this month there will be a big meltdown, I've seen others that think April. Either way, it is close.

Shorty, do you have any links for the above?  I'd sure like to read that for myself!

Ditto
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: iloilo on March 09, 2009, 09:48:48 pm
 ^_^ ^_^ ^_^
Ha!
Simply think of the amero as the ultimate "company store" trade token, on an international scale. 
Not that much different from what we have now.  Which is why individuals must voluntarily initiate exchanges of value between them, or through a private, free-market broker. 

(I am sure you all understand that reference to "company store".)
bff
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 09, 2009, 11:06:07 pm
The Amero is coming!!!
...cut...
(I believe he said it was on the CFR website).
...cut...
 Celente thinks this month there will be a big meltdown, I've seen others that think April. Either way, it is close.

Shorty, do you have any links for the above?  I'd sure like to read that for myself!

I don't. (For the CFR, at least) I'll have to ask Elias, myself. I did some browsing at the CFR site, but didn't find it. Then again, they take stuff down, sometimes.
I believe Celente said March when he was interviewed on financialsense.com a while back. He sensed the commercial real estate market was about to collapse, triggering more failures, which would spiral downward.

Shorty Dawkins


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 20, 2009, 01:45:27 pm
Is this the end of America? (http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/03/19/terence-corcoran-is-this-the-end-of-america.aspx)

Terence Corcoran has a few choice words, worth the read.

Quote
The AIG bonus firestorm is a diversion from real issues , but it puts the ghastly political classes who make U.S. law on display for what they are: ageing self-serving demagogues who have spent decades warping the U.S. political system for their own ends. We see the system up close, law-making that is riddled with slapdash, incompetence and gamesmanship.

One test of whether we are witnessing the end of America is how many more times Americans put up with congressional show trials of individual business people and their employees, slandering and vilifying them for their actions and motives. And for how long will they tolerate a President who berates business and corporations as dens of crime and malfeasance? If the majority of Americans come to accept the caricatures of business as true, then America is closer to the end of its life as a global leader, as a champion of markets and individualism.

It's TEOTWAWKI, and I feel fine...

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 06, 2009, 05:09:08 pm
The latest Fed figures are out.  Year-over-year growth in the adjusted monetary base (http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf) (PDF) (currency plus reserves) is an all time record of 113%.  They have more than doubled the monetary base in just one year.

I'm at a loss for words, so I'll just show the picture.  Note the suppressed zero on the y axis.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 07, 2009, 04:40:14 am
Holy smokes... when will hyper-inflation kick in?

Are there any charts available that show the cost of goods and services related to inflation?  That would really help me in convincing my S/O that we need to step up the preparing.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Klapton Isgod on May 07, 2009, 06:18:10 am
Holy smokes... when will hyper-inflation kick in?

Are there any charts available that show the cost of goods and services related to inflation?  That would really help me in convincing my S/O that we need to step up the preparing.

Beware when those figures become available.  What we may see later this year is massive price increases in food and gas, but price decreases in manufactured goods as demand for stuff people don't really NEED remains poor.  Ever since the Nixon administration, food and gas have been excluded from the calculations of price inflation.  So don't be suprised when it becomes more expensive to survive, but the government tells you there's no price inflation.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 07, 2009, 06:46:16 am
Inflation, properly defined, is an increase in the supply of money, so it is here right now, as the chart shows.

A hyper-inflation is a mass psychology event; enough people wake up and realize that the inflation will not stop, and start getting rid of the increasingly worthless money as fast as they can.  I believe it was Rothbard who talked about the 3 states of mind of the housewife upon seeing a skillet for sale:
1) I already have a skillet, so I'm not going to buy a new one.
2) My skillet is old and will wear out someday, so I will buy this one.
3) I have enough money to buy that skillet now and perhaps trade it for something useful soon.

Stage 3 is hyperinflation.

History and previous fed follies suggest that it takes 12-18 months for the newly created money to make its way into the broader economy and bid up the price of goods and services generally.  Right now, the money is mostly held in federal reserve accounts.  They are paying banks a pittance in interest; until recently there was no interest paid on reserves held by the fed.  Eventually the banks will lose some of their fear and start lending some of that money.  That's where the serious inflation occurs, when banks multiply this 113% increase in the money base by 10:1 or more via the magic of fractional reserves.  When that 10x tsunami of money hits the streets, prices of everyday goods will start to move, then to skyrocket. 

Whether and when a hyperinflation is touched off is anyone's guess.  Economist John Williams of shadowstats.com has a great report on hyperinflation (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation) that is definitely worth the time to read.  He is predicting late 2009 or sometime in 2010 for the hyperinflation of the hyperinflationary depression to kick in.  I'm afraid he is right.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 07, 2009, 11:25:25 am
Gaah!  It is depressing to watch all of this unfold.  At least I have the time to purchase that second deep freezer and fill it with food.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: padre29 on May 07, 2009, 12:59:16 pm
Gaah!  It is depressing to watch all of this unfold.  At least I have the time to purchase that second deep freezer and fill it with food.

Got the garden out yet knobster?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 07, 2009, 02:26:20 pm
Got the garden out yet knobster?

Yes.  I started very small - green peppers, broccoli and strawberries.  Hopefully something will come up!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 07, 2009, 02:48:38 pm
...

Economist John Williams of shadowstats.com has a great report on hyperinflation (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation) that is definitely worth the time to read.

"... a particularly poignant quote from a 1993 interview of Friedrich Kessler,
a law professor at Harvard and University of California Berkeley, who experienced
the Weimar Republic hyperinflation:

" 'It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. You
cannot imagine the rapidity with which the whole thing happened. The shelves
in the grocery stores were empty. You could buy nothing with your paper money.' "
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 08, 2009, 03:01:29 am
Holy smokes... when will hyper-inflation kick in?

Are there any charts available that show the cost of goods and services related to inflation?  That would really help me in convincing my S/O that we need to step up the preparing.

Beware when those figures become available.  What we may see later this year is massive price increases in food and gas, but price decreases in manufactured goods as demand for stuff people don't really NEED remains poor.  Ever since the Nixon administration, food and gas have been excluded from the calculations of price inflation.  So don't be suprised when it becomes more expensive to survive, but the government tells you there's no price inflation.

John William's shadowstats.com comes to the rescue again.  He calculates the consumer price index as it was done before 1980, when a variety of gimmicks were introduced in order to reduce the benefits paid from social security.  Niote that increases in the 1980 version of the CPI were over 12% before the meltdown.  Even at the reduced rate shown now, prices will double in about 9 years.  Will your income double in 9 years? Your savings?  They had better, or you are losing ground, getting poorer.  At 12%, prices double in 6 years.  At  20%, 4 years.

Get read for large double-digit increases once the tsunami of newly created money hits our economic shores.  Once the hyperinflation hits, prices will double every week, then every day, and finally, just before the end, prices may double every hour.

(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif)

Junker's quote is an important reminder; when the hyperinflation does come, there will be almost no warning.  Prepare now while there is still time, goods on the shelves, and people are still taking your paper money.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on June 04, 2009, 02:18:25 pm
Whether and when a hyperinflation is touched off is anyone's guess.  Economist John Williams of shadowstats.com has a great report on hyperinflation (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation) that is definitely worth the time to read.  He is predicting late 2009 or sometime in 2010 for the hyperinflation of the hyperinflationary depression to kick in.  I'm afraid he is right.

Indeed an interesting read...

We are *so* screwed!   :-(


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on June 07, 2009, 11:08:34 pm
It is extremely difficult to keep in mind where we are in the life cycle of the currency commonly known as "the US dollar". While I know the stuff in theory, I have almost 60 365-day years of experience disagreeing with that knowledge. It is soooo difficult to make the rational investment decision when the heart and instinct are bugging me to go on as if the recent past will predict the future.

Are you...
am I

really ready for what the Federal Reserve has/is/will do to the US dollar?

Here is $100 in the near future as currently being experienced in Zimbabwe


(http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:hIQInPhBJ5hSwM:http://loades.net/megabusblog/images/uploads/zim.jpg)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on June 08, 2009, 09:45:40 pm
(http://www.delanion.com/xg/GPDI.png)

A drop from 2.3 to 1.6 gigabucks, i.e., 700 millions... whoooshed away.

oops, read:

A drop from 2.3 to 1.6 terabucks, i.e., 700 billions... whoooshed away.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on June 08, 2009, 11:40:47 pm
Got the garden out yet knobster?

Yes.  I started very small - green peppers, broccoli and strawberries.  Hopefully something will come up!

Very, very important to learn to garden and to grow healthy soil that will support a garden. Almost as important to learn canning of in-season food.  Refrigeration is not as reliable as good old fashioned canning. Failures and the lessons learned from them this season will pay you back for the rest of your life.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gridboy on June 18, 2009, 09:12:22 am

Interesting article pointed to from lewrockwell.com:
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090614_the_american_empire_is_bankrupt/

"This week marks the end of the dollar’s reign as the world’s  reserve currency. It marks the start of a terrible period of economic and political decline in the United States. And it signals the last gasp of the American imperium. That’s over. It is not coming back. And what is to come will be very, very painful."

"It is the first formal step by our major trading partners to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If they succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak."

gridboy
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 05, 2009, 12:10:56 pm
See Vote in Slate's TEOTWAWKI survey (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=23156.new#new)

Actually, it is an interesting sign of the times that a popular magazine/webzine would do something like this.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on August 05, 2009, 02:02:01 pm
Ya know, I think many folk are 'things are going wrong- oh save me, govt' types today.
Security v Liberty
             & Liberty loses.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 14, 2009, 06:20:09 am
The fedgov deficit just hit $2 trillion per year.

From the estimable John Williams at Shadowstats.com
Quote
Viewing the change in the level of gross federal debt bypasses most of the regular reporting manipulations of the government’s financial results and provides a better indicator of actual net cash outlays by the federal government than does the official deficit reporting. Gross federal debt stood at $11.669 trillion as of July 31, 2009, up by $124 billion for the month, and up by $2.084 trillion from July 2009, which in turn was up by $653 billion from July 2007. The Treasury expects borrowing to break the current $12.1 trillion debt limit in October.

So the annual debt increase more than tripled from 2007 to the past 12 months, the government is now spending itself into a hole at
2 x 1012 FRNs per year, or 63,420 FRNs per second.

Today at LewRockwell.com, Gerald Celente argues in The Second American Revolution (http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente11.1.html) that we are at increasingly serious risk of either civil unrest or a false flag operation designed to prevent it.

Quote
The first shot was fired on April 15, 2009. Over 700 anti-tax rallies and “Tea Parties” erupted nationwide. Rather than acknowledge their significance, the general media either ignored or ridiculed both protests and protestors, playing on “tea bagging” for its sexual innuendo.
....
Shot #2 was fired on the Fourth of July, when throngs of citizens across the nation gathered to again protest “taxation without representation.” And as before, the demonstrations were branded right-wing mischief and dismissed.
....
The third volley, fired in early August, was aimed point blank at Senators and House members pitching President Obama’s health care reform package to constituents. In fiery town hall meetings, enraged citizens shouted down their elected representatives. It took a strong police presence and/or burly bodyguards to preserve a safe physical space between the politicians and irate townspeople.
...
Fourth Shot of the “Second American Revolution”: While there are many wild cards that could light the fuse, The Trends Research Institute forecasts that if the threat of government-forced Swine Flu vaccinations is realized, it will be the fourth shot. Tens of millions will fight for their right to remain free and unvaccinated.

So maybe it will end in a bang...

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on August 14, 2009, 06:50:57 am
...
Today at LewRockwell.com, Gerald Celente argues in The Second American Revolution (http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente11.1.html) that we are at increasingly serious risk of either civil unrest or a false flag operation designed to prevent it.
...
So maybe it will end in a bang...

Peace,

Silver

I think this is the heart of it (from "The Second American Revolution" - emphasis mine):
Quote
While most protestors exhibit little grasp of the complex 1000 page health care reform document (that nary a legislator has read either), their emotion is clearly real and un-staged.
...
Now, with Congress in recess and elected representatives less than a stone’s throw away, the public is exploding. The devil is not in the details of the heath care reform, the devil is the government mandating health care.

It pisses me off that the PTB and the MSM portray the genuine anger & frustration that I've seen expressed as "staged."  I think that pisses me off more than the actual attempted take-over of health care. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: SoundTheBell on August 14, 2009, 07:18:47 am
Very, very important to learn to garden and to grow healthy soil that will support a garden. Almost as important to learn canning of in-season food.  Refrigeration is not as reliable as good old fashioned canning. Failures and the lessons learned from them this season will pay you back for the rest of your life.
Important to learn to make things from scratch, too. Many folks who buy loaves of bread off of the shelves have NO idea how to make a loaf of bread from basic ingredients.
I think - hope, really - that these basic ingredients will be on the shelves longer than the end-product. Even if flour, honey, and yeast are on the shelf an hour longer than loaves of bread, people who know how to make their own bread can grab those ingredients and have more food than the ones standing in the bread aisle crying over the empty shelves.

PS - look into dehydrating, too. Takes up significantly less space & weight than canned goods. Can be eaten dehydrated, or plumped back up to normal size with some water.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: SoundTheBell on August 14, 2009, 08:01:47 am
Today at LewRockwell.com, Gerald Celente argues in The Second American Revolution (http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente11.1.html) that we are at increasingly serious risk of either civil unrest or a false flag operation designed to prevent it.
I love Celente's articles and interviews. He's very no-nonsense and plain-spoken. He can take a complex situation like hyperinflation and break it down quickly so that the average person can understand it.

His forecast for this year was horribly dire, and so far all of his "marks" have been hit but things aren't as bad (socially) as he expected them to be at this point. I think the gov't's new way of calculating numbers to make the true situation seem glowing, coupled with the Fed's double-buying spree of debt, have slowed things down and perhaps delayed a collapse; but it won't last forever. We're relying heavily on cooked books and other countries who also cook their books.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on August 14, 2009, 10:23:51 am
I think the gov't's new way of calculating numbers to make the true situation seem glowing, coupled with the Fed's double-buying spree of debt, have slowed things down and perhaps delayed a collapse; but it won't last forever. We're relying heavily on cooked books and other countries who also cook their books.

Exactly.  (Nearly) everyone I talk to always say, "It's not that bad.  Yeah a lot of people don't have jobs but everything seems pretty normal to me!"

At this point I smile, nod and move on.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gridboy on August 14, 2009, 10:33:02 am
Very, very important to learn to garden and to grow healthy soil that will support a garden. Almost as important to learn canning of in-season food.  Refrigeration is not as reliable as good old fashioned canning. Failures and the lessons learned from them this season will pay you back for the rest of your life.
Important to learn to make things from scratch, too. Many folks who buy loaves of bread off of the shelves have NO idea how to make a loaf of bread from basic ingredients.
I think - hope, really - that these basic ingredients will be on the shelves longer than the end-product. Even if flour, honey, and yeast are on the shelf an hour longer than loaves of bread, people who know how to make their own bread can grab those ingredients and have more food than the ones standing in the bread aisle crying over the empty shelves.

PS - look into dehydrating, too. Takes up significantly less space & weight than canned goods. Can be eaten dehydrated, or plumped back up to normal size with some water.

With respect to the kinds of things left on the shelves, I remember reading about the Zimbabwe
supermarkets.  Cooking oil is the first to run out, as everyone needs that for cooking.  The
stuff left on the shelves were luxuries that no one could afford, like cookies and toilet paper.

This blog from someone living through the Argentina collapse has some good info on
what is scarce, what can still be found.

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/thoughts-on-urban-survival-2005.html
"I was talking to my wife today while driving, asked her the same question “Nomad asked me ‘what would you do if you could go back in time, before the 2001 crisis’”.

My wife, though smart, isn’t much into preparedness, but she answered “I’d buy food” in a heartbeat. Don’t you remember that you could only buy one small bottle of oil at a time, same with sugar, flour and milk? Don’t you remember all those empty shelves at the supermarket?”

Definitely, more food, especially food that lasts for a few years."

The Argentina collapse doesn't sound nearly as bad as Zimbabwe.

gridboy
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on August 14, 2009, 05:41:03 pm
I've been keeping my eye out for screw-type oil presses when I go to auctions. Nothing yet. New ones are crazy expensive.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 14, 2009, 07:48:02 pm
I've been keeping my eye out for screw-type oil presses when I go to auctions. Nothing yet. New ones are crazy expensive.

ND

What is a screw type oil press??
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Klapton Isgod on August 14, 2009, 08:40:05 pm
I've been keeping my eye out for screw-type oil presses when I go to auctions. Nothing yet. New ones are crazy expensive.

ND

What is a screw type oil press??

I think he means something like this:

http://www.oilpressmachine.com/Oil-Press-of-Small-Scale.html

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hollywoodgold on August 14, 2009, 10:14:20 pm
I see.A seed presss.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 21, 2009, 10:22:49 am
The signs of impending collapse are coming fast and furious these days.

As I discussed in the thread on "stimulus" money being used primarily to hire more government workers (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=23437.msg296442#msg296442),

Quote
The US budget deficit was $180 billion last month, an all-time record.  The feds collected $151 billion in taxes, but spent $331 billion.  They spent $2.15 for every dollar collected.  Actually, they spent and promised to spend (what honest people would call incurring a debt) far more than that; the $331 billion figure ignores those inconvenient but incredibly expensive wars we are losing in Iraq, Afganistan, the new war in Pakistan, and our spending to provoke yet another war in Columbia and Venezula.  Add in the ever-growing socialist insecurity and mediscam liabilities, and the true spending was probably well north of $400 billlion, with the feds spending roughly $3 for every $1 they stole.

Now comes a chart showing net foreign investment in federal agency and treasury debt:
(http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie082109/1.gif)

The multiple billions-per-day inflow required to support this orgy of spending are coming to an end.  Jim Willie points out in the article accompanying the graph (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie082109.html) that there is ample evidence suggesting that most of the "foreign" purchases are in fact the US federal reserve buying through thinly disguised foreign cut-outs.  Direct monetization of the debt is extremely inflationary and we're accelerating down the path to a full blown hyperinflation.

The topper comes from chart of the day.  US corporate earnings have collapsed (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19536.msg290090#msg290090), and so the present bear market rally has sent the Price/Earnings ratio to absurd levels.
(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.gif)

Anyone stupid enough to buy or hold a stock with a P/E over 20 deserves their fate.  But the 500 largest company stocks are selling at a P/E of nearly 150!

There's only one way to go from here.  September and October are rarely kind to stock markets; this year is shaping up to be one for the record books.  The bloodletting will not be confined to the trading floors.  God help us all.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on August 21, 2009, 10:56:37 am
Well.  That's...sobering.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Alchemist on August 21, 2009, 12:53:06 pm
q
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 21, 2009, 02:01:18 pm
It's like watching a train wreck about to happen.
While sitting on the train.

Yep. I was inspired to start looking around after finding out that China is slowly dumping US Debt (or at least in June).

 I found an interesting article posted here (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?board=21;topic=7093.1#msg296547) in 2005 by Alton.

Did a little research, re-read it, changed my wet pants from pissing myself and patted my back that we have at least tried to move off the train.

Hopefully the 95% who haven't woken up will absorb the impact. Sounds cold, but what else can we do?

mutti

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on August 21, 2009, 02:20:04 pm
Quote
Hopefully the 95% who haven't woken up will absorb the impact. Sounds cold, but what else can we do?

In this one case, you can have your cake and eat it, too, in a grim kind of way.  You can exert the maximum practical effort towards waking up the other 95%, and you may even have the gratification of succeeding in a few isolated cases.  And when the inevitable train crash comes, you can pat yourself on the back for doing the right thing to the best of your abilities, you can wipe away a tear of satisfaction over the individual cases you may have helped, and you can still rest in knowing that your contribution has been statistically insignificant, so the 95% will still be there, their number impacted only negligibly, to absorb the impact.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 21, 2009, 02:39:04 pm
Quote
Hopefully the 95% who haven't woken up will absorb the impact. Sounds cold, but what else can we do?

In this one case, you can have your cake and eat it, too, in a grim kind of way.  You can exert the maximum practical effort towards waking up the other 95%, and you may even have the gratification of succeeding in a few isolated cases.  And when the inevitable train crash comes, you can pat yourself on the back for doing the right thing to the best of your abilities, you can wipe away a tear of satisfaction over the individual cases you may have helped, and you can still rest in knowing that your contribution has been statistically insignificant, so the 95% will still be there, their number impacted only negligibly, to absorb the impact.

I try a little each day. I think that we have 2 turned around a bit - 2 more than before at least. mutti
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 21, 2009, 02:41:30 pm
I've used the train wreck metaphor many times, it's very apt.

While it's a fine thing to try and warn people, most can't or won't hear, and at least some will not appreciate your efforts at all.

It really is a train wreck.  We can all see it coming.  The mistakes have already been made, the trains are on the same track, heading towards each other at full throttle.  Even if one or both engineers slams on the brakes, there's isn't time to prevent a terrible collision.

There's nothing to do about it except find a relatively safe place, get some provisions, and prepare to enjoy a nice long picnic while enjoying the awful spectacle as it unfolds.  Explosions of this magnitude don't happen even once in a typical lifetime, might as well watch and learn.

Later, much later, after the worst of the fires have died out and the wreckage stopped raining down and shifting around, you might want to venture out, either to salvage some things or to help any survivors.  But don't go running down there until everything has settled down; no point in getting yourself killed in the train wreck.  No one wants to be the last victim, and it would be particularly terrible if someone with the knowledge, foresight, and discipline to prepare for the wreck were to get hurt by rushing to help those too blind, lazy, or stupid to help themselves.

After the wreck we're going to need a new train, and there will be plenty of work for all the hands left as can work.  Be safe, get ready, enjoy the spectacle, and we'll regroup after the dust settles.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 21, 2009, 05:48:20 pm
The Mogambo Guru has a column today with even more bad news: A Truckload of Bad Data (http://dailyreckoning.com/a-truckload-of-bad-data/).

Earnings on the Dow Transportation Index have also collapsed.  No surprise there.  "A share of all the companies in the index earned a total of 82 cents, which is down from the $170.63 they earned at this time last year.”

That's a 99.5% decline.  This has sent the P/E ratio of the transportation index to 4,493!!!!!  I don't have enough exclamation points in my keyboard.  That is an insane value.  "The normal range of P/E ratios is from about 4 or 5 up to 21, with the average being about 12 to 14! But the Transports are at 4,493! Hahaha!”"

Let me try to put this in some kind of perspective.  The Dow Transport Index is now $3,705.92, and if you lay down that much money, those companies together will earn a lousy 82 cents. 

If you bought that stock about the time of the reign of Userkaf (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Userkaf), and collected your 82 cents in earnings every year, you'd still be waiting to get all of your initial investment back. Forget the time value of money, I'm talking simple payback. What's that, you never heard of Userkaf? That's understandable, because he lived nearly 4,500 years ago.  He ran Egypt before they built the pyramids.  He was in his fancy coffin over 2,000 years before Jesus Christ was born. 

No sane person buys or holds a stock with that kind of P/E.  Sometimes people buy overpriced stocks because they think some greater fool will come along and pay still more for them, no matter what the P/E or business prospects, but most of the greater fools were parted with the bulk of their money in late 2008.  It's hard to believe that there are still pension funds or serious investors of any kind holding portfolios with this kind of stinking garbage in them, but somebody is bidding up those shares.

We are indeed freaking doomed.  I can't understand why the market hasn't collapsed already; it's enough to make one suspect the corpse is being propped up.  Given all the other zombie banks and companies kept twitching with giant jolts of stimulus money, it doesn't seem so farfetched.

But this corpse is already stinking up the joint, and people are starting to notice.  The collapse of foreign investment flows shows that some people are heading for the exits.

This is going to end very badly.  For god's sake, if you know anyone who has anything in the stock market, or any significant sum of money in dollar-denominated banking accounts, tell them to get out.  Get out now.  This farce can't go on for much longer.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on August 26, 2009, 05:58:55 am
Sorry...  all I read was something about a golden bikini. :drool:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bennie on August 27, 2009, 03:36:48 am

This is going to end very badly.  For god's sake, if you know anyone who has anything in the stock market, or any significant sum of money in dollar-denominated banking accounts, tell them to get out.  Get out now.  This farce can't go on for much longer.


Silver : (of course gold & silver in the hand is smart) But, what about gold & silver stocks? Does one get out of those stocks too? How about oil stocks (major oil company)?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on August 27, 2009, 05:35:02 am
Quote
what about gold & silver stocks? Does one get out of those stocks too?

I can't speak for Silver, but I would say that if you don't have it in your care, custody and control, don't trust that you have it at all.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on August 27, 2009, 10:20:33 am
Quote
what about gold & silver stocks? Does one get out of those stocks too?

I can't speak for Silver, but I would say that if you don't have it in your care, custody and control, don't trust that you have it at all.

I'm inclined to suspect that precious metal stocks are worth more than some others, but you should weigh them quite literally on a scale and compare the weight of your stock certificates to the weight of those bits of metal you have in your possession. Liquidate your paper holdings while value remains.

Imagine a world where paper promises are valueless and society has to rebuild from a basic barter system.  Imagine this really soon, before you have to experience it. There isn't much time left.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 27, 2009, 07:14:40 pm

Silver : (of course gold & silver in the hand is smart) But, what about gold & silver stocks? Does one get out of those stocks too? How about oil stocks (major oil company)?

I think of these issues in terms of diversification.  PSM had the short version essentially correct.  Here's my longer answer.

Why does one hold god and silver stocks in these times?  For me, the answer is that I fear the worst, but allocate my resources to protect my wealth and perhaps profit from developments under a variety of possible outcomes.  There are several possible scenarios:

1) Doom.  The economy collapses.  ATMs don't work, paper money is worth little or nothing.
2) TEOTWAWKI.  The markets crash, most "investors" are wiped out, but the markets function, after a fashion.
3) Hard times.  Markets gyrate wildly.  Many investors suffer serious losses.
4) Rough ride.  Markets continue to function as always, but with huge, hard-to-predict swings.
5) Normal, more or less.  Markets rally and drop.  Life goes on.

If 1) happens, onlly gold and silver in your hand matters.  Even if your portfolio shows a balance, you can't get it.
If 2), gold and silver soar. Gold and silver stocks explode, as they have leverage to the price of gold. This is why you hold gold and silver stocks in these times.
If 3) gold and silver stocks take a beating, then come roaring back as investors pile into these stocks.
4) Gold and silver stocks do as they have been doing for a while.  Solid companies do OK, weak sisters don't perform.
5) Gold and silver stocks move sideways as they have been for the past 18 months or so.

Speaking only for me, most of my position is in gold and silver bullion, close to hand.  I have some gold and silver stocks, but they are there in case things go well, scenarios 3-5.  I may make a bunch, I may lose it all.  It's OK, I only put money into those stocks that I could afford to lose.

Not all gold and silver stocks are created equal.  CEF and GTU are stocks whose price is based on the fact of gold and sillver bullion sitting in safe allocated storage in Candian bank vaults.  Uncle Sugar can't touch it.  Other stocks, in mining companies and exploration companies, are much more volatile - meaning they will go up a lot more if gold goes up, but can be wiped out by management mistakes or just bad luck.  I have some of both kinds.

I'm not liquidating my gold and silver stock positions, but I am prepared to lose all of them if things go way south.  In those scenarios, nothing in IRAs, 401(k)s, or other paper accounts can be converted to useful wealth.  But if things are not so bad, they will do very well indeed.

Casey recommends 1/3 gold bullion, 1/3 cash, and 1/3 high quality stocks.  What makes high quality is what makes a horse race.  YMMV.

There are no simple answers.  I spread my bet, and take my chances.  Gold in my hand is a pretty safe bet.  Gold and silver stocks are less safe, but offer the potential for large profits.  More risk = more profit.  This is how it should be.

So if you have your life savings in these stocks, I would consider selling some or most now and trading the proceeds for bullion.  If you already have enough bullion to be comfortable, then if you have a strong stomach you might risk a little bit on these stocks.

An investor risks 100% of his capital hoping for a 10% return.  A speculator risks 10% of his capital hoping for a 100% return.  In these times, holding gold and silver stocks is a speculative play, no ifs ands or buts. These are burning matches, not long term investments, but they offer the potential for huge rewards.

Holding the S&P 500, the Dow Industrials, or the Dow Transports is a fool's game given today's P/E ratios.  That was the subject of my warning.  A bit of speculation may be warranted, but only if you have the bullion (and food, medicine, etc. discussed at length elsewhere on this forum) a little risk might take you a long way.

Good luck.  We're all going to need it.

Peace,

Silver

Disclaimer:  I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Unless you are as smart as Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss, savvy as a half-blind Calcutta bootblack, tough as General William Tecumseh Sherman, rich as the Queen of England, emotionally resilient as a Red Sox fan, and as generally able to take care of yourself as the average nuclear missile submarine commander, you should never have been allowed near this message. If you do not meet these qualifications, you are in deep yogurt and must follow these instructions exactly if you wish to live. Please dispose of this message as you would any piece of high-level radioactive waste and then arrange with a qualified surgeon to amputate your arms at the elbows and gouge your eyes from their sockets. This warning is necessary because once, a hundred years ago, a little old lady in Kentucky put a hundred dollars into a dry goods company which went bellyup and only returned her ninety-nine dollars. Ever since then the government has been on our asses. If you ignore this warning, read on at your peril - you are dead certain to lose everything you've got and live out your final decades beating back waves of termites in a Mississippi Delta leper colony. Still reading? Great. Now that we've scared off the lightweights, let's get down to business.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on August 27, 2009, 07:32:21 pm
Silver, you make a fun and interesting read. :laugh:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bennie on August 28, 2009, 03:27:49 am
1/3 bullion 1/3 cash 1/3 stocks ..........

That standard gets repeated frequently by many pro's recommendations. I read Casey. And, it is what I suspect most folks try to do after they pay themselves and the monthly bills (myself included). I think the most difficult thing for me is to take cash out of the bank (and keep it in the cookie jar at home), and yet the bank is one place that history shows it should not be in times like these.

It seems to always be a crapshoot no matter what the times are. Here today and gone tomorrow.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on September 11, 2009, 05:19:20 pm
The clash develops...

reuters.com (http://www.reuters.com):

Harvard and Yale endowments suffer heavy losses (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58A0D020090911)

Harvard ... dropped 27.3 percent, or $11 billion, [from $37bn] to $26 billion ...
Yale ... shrank ... 30 percent [or $7bn, from $22.9bn] to $16 billion ...
...
[/list]

And prolly many large, non-profit corp. investment funds are off as well.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on September 12, 2009, 07:10:58 am
Quote
emotionally resilient as a Red Sox fan

The hell you say!
Red Sox fans are some of the most emotionally fragile, neurotic people to walk the earth.  I oughta know.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on September 14, 2009, 08:54:02 am
Stiglitz: Essentially no change in banking industry one year later.

Stiglitz: Banking Industry In Worse Shape Than Ever (http://www.businessinsider.com/stiglitz-banking-industry-in-worse-shape-than-ever-2009-9)

Quote
Nobel Laureate economist Joe Stiglitz says the banking industry is in worse shape than it was pre-Lehman.

Bloomberg: “In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 14, 2009, 10:13:11 am
June 17, 1930: Economic Ignoramus signs Smoot-Harley Tariff Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act), igniting an international trade war and prolonging the Great Depression by a full decade.

September 11, 2009: Economic Ignoramus signs 35% tariff on goods from one of the failing empire's largest trading partners, igniting an international trade war and prolonging the Greater Depression by a number of years yet to be determined.

Ignorance is curable, but stupidity is fatal.

Plus ça change... plus c'est la même chose.

Peace,

Silver
Title: This is the way the world ends: Wall Street's Naked Swindle
Post by: Silver on October 20, 2009, 11:40:42 am
Matt Taibbi has a great exposition of the tactics used to dispatch Bear Sterns and later Lehman Brothers.
Wall Street's Naked Swindle (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle/1)

I had known for some time that Bear Stern's didn't fall so much as was pushed.  Any and all of the big investment banks had the same insane leverage and debt loads and any or all could have suffered the same fate.  The question is not why Bear fell, but why was Bear chosen, and who benefited?

Taibbi prevents compelling evidence for massive market manipulation and enormous profiteering that the SEC and other government "watchdogs" simply refuse to investigate.

Lehman Brothers was an easy call - they were Southern Jews and were widely hated on Wall Street.  They weren't part of the club and were resented for their talent and success.  I never could understand why Bear got it in the neck before Lehman - although the Manhattan office building was quite a plum and made Bear an especially attractive target.

We'll probably never know exactly who got paid what for this enormous crime spree.  What is true, and why I post this in "This is the way the world ends" thread is that at the end of every fiat-driven bubble economic collapse, the levels of deceit and fraud are finally revealed, and are invariably breathtaking in their scope and brazenness.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 20, 2009, 01:59:45 pm
Boy, that Taibbi article is one heck of a great read. Depressing as hell (you wonder how a society and an economy can go on functioning at all when its top levels are that corrupt). But beautifully written in rough Rolling Stone style. Matti Taibbi tells it like it is in the language it deserves.

I seldom have the patience or interest to read an eight-page 'Net article all the way to the end. But this one held me all the way:

Quote
The nation's largest financial players are able to write the rules for own their (sic) businesses and brazenly steal billions under the noses of regulators, and nothing is done about it. A thing so fundamental to civilized society as the integrity of a stock, or a mortgage note, or even a U.S. Treasury bond, can no longer be protected, not even in a crisis, and a crime as vulgar and conspicuous as counterfeiting can take place on a systematic level for years without being stopped, even after it begins to affect the modern-day equivalents of the Rockefellers and the Carnegies. What 10 years ago was a cheap stock-fraud scheme for second-rate grifters in Brooklyn has become a major profit center for Wall Street. Our burglar class now rules the national economy. And no one is trying to stop them.

Only big quibble: Taibbi seems sincerely to believe that federal regulators could and should clean up the mess -- even as his own research makes it clear that the state is the enabler of the worst of the worst corruption.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 20, 2009, 02:26:54 pm
Yes, for all his good investigative and reporting work, Taibbi remains blissfully ignorant of the fundamentals of the system he exposes.

The point he never reached in this particular article is that naked short selling is intellectually and mechanically identical to the mechanism of fractional reserve banking.  Bankers counterfeit money every time they make a loan. This is legal, thanks to deliberate mis-interpretation of common-law principles by government-paid judges, because it serves the interests of government so well.  Stock traders counterfeit stocks by the exact same mechanism when they do naked short sales.   While technically illegal, it serves the interests of the rich and powerful so well that it will never be prosecuted, as Taibbi shows but does not understand.

Quote
A thing so fundamental to civilized society as the integrity of a stock, or a mortgage note, or even a U.S. Treasury bond, can no longer be protected, not even in a crisis, and a crime as vulgar and conspicuous as counterfeiting can take place on a systematic level for years without being stopped,

Again, Taibbi misses the point.  The integrity of our money was deliberately destroyed in 1913, and the vulgar and conspicuous crime of counterfeiting has been going full tilt since that time.  Extending the scam to stocks and bonds is only the endgame.  Taibbi rails against Goldman and expects the SEC to do something about it, even while posting numerous reports on Goldman insiders appointed to SEC enforcement proceedings.  He just can't seem to grasp the enormity of the lie that we all live.

It's a perfect example of the phrase from The Matrix:

Quote
You were born to a life of servitude and slavery and taught to call it freedom.

(My recollection may not be perfect.)

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 21, 2009, 12:03:38 pm
http://www.cagle.com/working/091016/markstein.jpg

This cartoon, "Dorian Gray," is as great a commentary as I've seen on the state of our much-media-touted "recovery."

(Courtesy of Wendy McElroy's blog (http://www.wendymcelroy.com/news.php).)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 21, 2009, 02:19:39 pm
Brilliant!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 22, 2009, 11:28:27 am
Brilliant!

And speaking of brilliant (NOT!), have you seen this five-minute YouTube video of Florida congresscritter Alan Grayson calmly (but incredulously) grilling the inspector general of the Federal Reserve?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8

OMG! I usually don't watch online videos to get political information. But I sat and stared at this one from start to finish in utter disbelief. This woman -- who's supposed to be the Fed's hard-headed, hard-hearted inside watchdog -- is as clueless and amateurishly evasive as a teenager caught cheating on a civics test! She's not even good at stonewalling.

"Where did the one trillion in bailout funds go?"

"Er ... um ... uh, well, we're conducting an indepth study ..."

"What do you know about the $9 trillion in alleged off-budget expenses?"

"Well, um, as I said before, this is under serious considerations. It's not my area of authority ... erm, aliens ate my homework."

It would be funny if it weren't both our money and our country disappearing into this woman's vacant brain.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on October 22, 2009, 12:30:03 pm
I've watched alot of video on Democrat Rep. Grayson (Florida) and as a fiscally conservative Republican I will say that he's a total stud.  The 8th district of Florida should be very proud.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on October 22, 2009, 01:13:19 pm
It just occurred to me that CSPAN is a poorly scripted reality TV show
with a homely looking cast. Occasionally it makes good theatre. :D

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on October 22, 2009, 04:56:02 pm
I've watched alot of video on Democrat Rep. Grayson (Florida) and as a fiscally conservative Republican I will say that he's a total stud.  The 8th district of Florida should be very proud.

I don't know.  He seems to me to be a typical left-wing nut-case.  He seems to consider more government control of ______ (fill in the blank) a good thing.  He, also, seem to be very anti-free market. 

Oh, yeah, he's also a Democrat party hack.  (IMO)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 22, 2009, 06:53:46 pm
have you seen this five-minute YouTube video of Florida congresscritter Alan Grayson calmly (but incredulously) grilling the inspector general of the Federal Reserve?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8

OMG! I usually don't watch online videos to get political information. But I sat and stared at this one from start to finish in utter disbelief. This woman -- who's supposed to be the Fed's hard-headed, hard-hearted inside watchdog -- is as clueless and amateurishly evasive as a teenager caught cheating on a civics test! She's not even good at stonewalling.

...

It would be funny if it weren't both our money and our country disappearing into this woman's vacant brain.

If you were in charge of the federal reserve, and were in the business of stealing money from widows and orphans and giving it to the richest of the rich, and you had the power to appoint your own watchdog, would you appoint a fierce, independent, hard-heated monster or an airhead who couldn't find her @$$ with both hands and a flashlight?

That's why Ron Paul's bill has them sweating.  A real audit would uncover such massive fraud and transfer of wealth to politically connected insiders that the fed would almost certainly not survive the experience.  I have a good imagination and an extradinarily low opinon of the denizens of Mordor, but I'm quite confident I will be shocked and horrified when the truth is finally revealed.  It's almost certainly far worse than any of us can imagine.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on October 22, 2009, 08:49:58 pm
It just occurred to me that CSPAN is a poorly scripted reality TV show
with a homely looking cast. Occasionally it makes good theatre. :D

Bear


I always thought it was just a bunch of dried-up old farts voting on random things at random.
When they are there...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 22, 2009, 10:34:06 pm
... I'm quite confident I will be shocked and horrified when the truth is finally revealed...

They cannot let that happen.
Their inglorious demise would be certain.
Thus, they won't.
Since they control the money and the media,
what they want, they get.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 23, 2009, 04:09:35 am
Oh, it won't happen with their consent.  I have no illusions about Ron Paul's bill.  Even if by some miracle it survived intact and was approved by both house and senate, the god-king will do as he is told and veto it.  Even if an even greater miracle occured and the bill somehow became law, the law would be ignored.  That is the nature of the age we live in.

What will eventually happen is the whole edifice of lies and corruption will come crashing down, as it must.  I don't know when or how, but I have no doubts about the eventual outcome.  Then, as in (for example) East Germany after the collapse, enraged and determined people will do whatever is necessary to piece together the scraps, and the awful truth will be revealed.  Not all, but enough.  There will be no justice, but there will be a reckoning.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on October 23, 2009, 06:09:51 pm
For the record, today at LRC:
     http://www.lewrockwell.com/taibbi/taibbi15.1.html
which interrupts (as LRC does-- too bad)
                           linking to taibbi's "Wall Street's Naked Swindle".
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 27, 2009, 09:54:30 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aY6fyCTnmgh0

A Bloomberg commentator pens an only slightly tongue-in-cheek op-ed about whose face should be on his proposed $1 million bill.

Doesn't matter much. The losers can still hope to have their faces on the billion and trillion dollar bills ...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 28, 2009, 04:53:03 am
The fed is at it again, creating money at a rate not seen since the near-doubling of the money supply in a matter of months 13 months ago.

The latest data from the St. Louis fed shows the monetary base growing at an annualized rate of 96%.  The monetary base is at an all-time high.  They created nearly $80 billion in just two weeks, over 66,000 new dollars per second every minute of every day.

(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&id=BASE,&transformation=lin,&scale=Left,&range=Max,&cosd=1984-02-15,&coed=2009-10-21,&line_color=%230000FF,&link_values=,&mark_type=NONE,&line_style=Solid,&vintage_date=2009-10-28,&revision_date=2009-10-28,&mma=0,&nd=,&ost=,&oet=,)

This is how it always goes when a currency is destroyed.  The first giant increase is always accompanied with solemn promises that there will be no more, and that the torrent of paper will be redeemed.  Notice all the talk about the fed's "exit strategy?"  It's just that - talk.  The fed will never reduce the supply of dollars, and now comes the second giant creation.

The money flood has largely been contained as excess reserves on bank's accounts at the fed, but it is starting to leak past that dam.

Quote
As of July, the M1 money supply (currency held by the public plus checking deposits) had grown 17.5% in a year's time. That's not just unusually rapid, it's extraordinarily rapid. Since 1959, M1 has grown more rapidly in only one other 12-month period - and that was the one ending last June, when the M1 money supply jumped 18.4%. Even in the inflation-plagued 1970s, growth in M1 never exceeded 10% in any 12 months.
When Will Inflation Really Hit Us? (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey102709.html) - Terry Coxon, Editor, The Casey Report

Mr. Coxon uses data gathered by the monetarist schoold of economics to support a prediction that serious consumer price inflation will not arrive until 2012.  I think that is a best-case prediction. The Chinese or several other parties could trigger a dollar collapse at any moment. No matter when price inflation comes, it will come, and it will be enormous.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on October 28, 2009, 04:59:50 am
Good morning Silver, you're up early as well (or just stayed up that late? ^_^).

These charts paint such a stark picture of the current situation and I don't see how this is going to end any way but badly for this country.  I keep telling people to 'make hay while the sun shines' and most chuckle and nod but that's about it.

What amazes me is that such charts are not splashed up on the main stream news.  This is serious stuff and most have no idea what is really going on.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 28, 2009, 05:23:56 am
A relative was visiting recently and kept spouting various bits of nonsense about different topics.  My wife and I both showed him the inconvenient truths on the internet.  This wasn't tinfoil hat stuff, just MSM garbage about the economic recovery, green shoots, health care reform, swine flu, global warming, etc.

At one point he got exasperated and said "I don't understand!  I read the newspapers and watch the nightly news every day!"  I responded "That's your problem!"

Seriously, this isn't on the front pages because the people drawing up the front pages use them to entertain and distract.  "If it bleeds, it leads" followed by government propaganda mindlessly repeated by passionless stenographers who fancy themselves journalists. 

The truth is easy enough to find, for those who care to look.  The fed is evil incarnate, but the St. Louis Fed is an unimpeachable source of information about the creation of money.  That graph took me less than 15 seconds to find, format, and display in a form I could link to this forum.

The sad fact is that most people don't want to look, don't want to know, and prefer to be entertained, cared for, and controlled.  They will end up as all sheep end, but that's another rant.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on October 28, 2009, 10:35:23 am
Quote
The sad fact is that most people don't want to look, don't want to know, and prefer to be entertained, cared for, and controlled.  They will end up as all sheep end, but that's another rant.

The people who manage the MSM know this and have learned there is little benefit (to them)
in trying to educate the public. All they need really do is entertain to keep their ratings, so
they can generate ad revenue. That's it. Real news is almost irrelevant.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Claire on October 28, 2009, 10:45:51 am
The people who manage the MSM know this and have learned there is little benefit (to them)
in trying to educate the public. All they need really do is entertain to keep their ratings, so
they can generate ad revenue. That's it. Real news is almost irrelevant.


True. And worse, when it comes to economics, the typical journalist is an ignoramus -- even the typical "financial commentator." Most of those who know anything at all are dedicated Keynesians who wouldn't see anything alarming about the chart Silver posted.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 28, 2009, 02:27:30 pm
The people who manage the MSM know this and have learned there is little benefit (to them)
in trying to educate the public. All they need really do is entertain to keep their ratings, so
they can generate ad revenue. That's it. Real news is almost irrelevant.


True. And worse, when it comes to economics, the typical journalist is an ignoramus -- even the typical "financial commentator." Most of those who know anything at all are dedicated Keynesians who wouldn't see anything alarming about the chart Silver posted.

And worse still, the CEOs who own the media in question actually WANT the collapse and expect to gain wealth and power from it. An investigative reporter with an actual understanding of economics would not last past his first submission.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 28, 2009, 11:22:50 pm
... and yet another clear picture of the situation ... 

(http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2009/images/0724/TotalDebttoGDP.png)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 08, 2009, 07:59:28 am
The annualized rate of money creation has accelerated from 99% to 126%.
(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=line&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&mode=fred&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=BASE&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=2007-02-15&coed=2009-11-04&line_color=%230000FF&vintage_date=2009-11-08&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mma=0)

Note the end of the gray bar, used to signal the end of a recession.  The recession is over, didn't you  get the memo?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on November 09, 2009, 04:56:49 am
Everytime I see that line zoom nearly vertical my mind starts to spin.  It made me wonder though, how much money is destroyed each year?  I would assume that line is pretty steady and some (nearly) fixed amount.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on November 09, 2009, 10:03:46 am
Everytime I see that line zoom nearly vertical my mind starts to spin.  It made me wonder though, how much money is destroyed each year?  I would assume that line is pretty steady and some (nearly) fixed amount.

Knobster,

I'm not sure that's a valid assumption. When a company which has received loans makes a smoking hole in the ground,
a lot of money is destroyed in one event. A steady state destruction of money would require an economy running at constant
rate, where debt is repaid at a steady state. I don't think we're there anymore.

Anyone who has a better handle on this than I do, please jump in.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 09, 2009, 11:10:40 am
I'm not sure exactly what is meant by "money being destroyed each year."

Bear talks about bankrupt companies; strictly speaking, they don't destroy money, but debt and credit.  It's true that our society treats debt and credit as money, but they are different, as the bankruptcy example shows.

The monetary base shown in the graphs represent to total amount of money - deposits at the federal reserve, bank deposits, and printed currency plus coins.  Some paper currency wears out and is destroyed each year, but it is always replaced with fresh notes.  The monetary base shows the total, of which physical paper money is only a small part.  Most of our money consists of digital bits on computer ledgers, they don't even need printing presses to create more.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on November 10, 2009, 01:01:20 am
I think, Silver, you chose a overly close look at the money supply.  This picture, also supplied by the St. Louis Fed clarifies the situation a bit better for me, and maybe some others.

(http://idaholiberty.com/wp-content/gallery/pictures/monetary-base-11_9_9.png)

There should be no illusion or confusion about where this is headed. They cannot spread dollar bills around like confetti and expect us to value them as if they were precious metal equivalents. 

A slightly more expansive version of that thought is here (http://idaholiberty.com/?p=199).
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 10, 2009, 05:12:16 am
I'm not sure what is meant by "an overly close look at the money supply."

All graphs lie.  Every one.  Someone who makes or uses a graph, as I did, should be viewed with great skepticism by a free man.  A graph maker is like a magician; he shows you what he wants you to see, and hides what he doesn't want you to see.  There's nothing inherently dishonest with a magician's trick; honest entertainment is a worthy goal.  But the three-card monte artist uses the same techniques for dishonest ends.  Caution and skepticism are always wise, but particularly around prestidigitators and graph users.

I selected the relatively narrow time scale to highlight the most recent trends in the money supply, and to poke some fun at the idea that the depression is over.  If a longer time scale informs you better for another purpose, by all means use it.  Why not look at ALL the data on the monetary base, since the creation of the federal reserve?

(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=line&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&mode=fred&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=AMBNS&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1918-01-01&coed=2009-10-01&line_color=%230000FF&vintage_date=2009-11-10&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mma=0)

Or use a logarithmic scale, the better to visualize the change as related to the fraction of the whole?
(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=line&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&log_scales=Left%2CRight&mode=fred&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=AMBNS&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1918-01-01&coed=2009-10-01&line_color=%230000FF&vintage_date=2009-11-10&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mma=0)

Or if you really want to scare someone, look at the percent change, year-over-year:
(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=line&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&mode=fred&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=AMBNS&transformation=pc1&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1918-01-01&coed=2009-10-01&line_color=%230000FF&vintage_date=2009-11-10&line_style=Solid&mark_type=NONE&mma=0)

I submit that no matter how you look at it, on what scale, the right edge of the graph shows trouble.  Big trouble.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on November 13, 2009, 12:18:01 pm
A million here, a million there, and
(http://www.delanion.com/xg/Z-100Tr.jpg)
 soon we're talking serious money...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on November 13, 2009, 06:15:10 pm
Heck, print one of those out and the national debt is elminated!  Too bad a loaf of bread would cost about a billion dollars then...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: byron mc on December 06, 2009, 01:03:24 pm
Quote
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe announced Feb. 2 that it would revalue the Zimbabwean dollar simply by knocking 12 zeros off the currency. Overnight, 1 trillion Zimbabwean dollars became 1 Zimbabwean dollar. Even after the redenomination, however, the currency continued to lose value. Finally, April 12, the government gave up and suspended the use of the currency.
http://www.cavalierdaily.com/2009/11/12/monopoly-money-2/

Quote
Vietnam shaved 5% off the value of its currency, the  dong, on Wednesday, its third devaluation since June  2008.
NOVEMBER 27, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125928712852165885.html

Quote
North Korea Pulls all Paper Currency - People in Misery
a 1:100 haircut on your money.

Quote
This is a lesson for everyone on the true value of paper money and the power a government has over it.  While  this happens in countries like Zimbabwe or North Korea,  human nature and greed are the same in every place on  earth -- it could happen anywhere.
December 6, 2009
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/0000000000000781

This was the sort of thing why we should be vary wary of with digital currency and doing away with paper currency completely.
Youths want cashless society
http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=5284.0

Sure prices can be changed in a flash for not just a store, or an entire city but entire states, entire regions with just the click of a computer key. That goes for rice, as well as milk, gasoline, or anything else.

Why should the the true value of paper money be any more important than the value of a digital currency? As with more things electronic people look at the actual price less especially with using credit cards as it is all monopoly money to them.
With electronic tolling such as regional multi-state systems such as SunPass and E-Z Pass becoming more ubiquitous and being used not just for paying a toll to drive on a road where you slow down to 5 mph while driving through a toll but at 70mph with Open road tolling people don't pay attention to the toll increases.

We are coming up soon on 2012 when in 2012 currencies from the initial 11 European Union member states will not longer be able to be converted into Euros in the capital city banks of each country. Those paper currencies will become useless at that time.
And that is why this thread really starts to bring this up if we have but a handful of currencies like the Euro in the world in 20 years.
single global currency
http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=20033.0

Think about it. What would happen if a country like Japan or England pulled all paper currency in 2015 and did not replace it?
With digital currency when a currency is revalued will people notice as much?

Would the black market only grow if digital currency became the norm and no paper currency were allowed at legitimate stores?
and on a bigger scale what about if the Euro paper currency were pulled in 2020 and digital currency were only accepted within all member states?
Title: Protecting Your Assets: Cash, Silver and Gold
Post by: byron mc on December 13, 2009, 03:28:56 pm
Quote
Everyone except the most hardened pessimist or plaid-pants wearing short seller has a vested interest in seeing the current system continue to function.   Governments have a huge incentive to see paper money continue to have value; without paper money, it would be very difficult to raise taxes without directly confiscating private property, something that usually makes citizens a bit testy.


you should be prudent and prepared for a few scenarios that have happened historically in many countries of the world, including the U.S.   The first and most likely event is some kind of bank holiday, caused by a "run on the bank". 
 

Quote
The biggest risk at the moment is that credit cards stop working and the banks close for a short period of time.

This means there is a chance that ATM's are also temporarily out of service or there are restrictions on how much money you can take out of the bank.  You should keep at least a month of two worth of cash hidden at home.
Because there might not be a lot of change in circulation, be sure to keep lots of smaller bills on hand.  If you need to buy a few dozen eggs with a $100 bill and there is no change, those eggs could become very expensive.


Quote
If things get worse, for example, if there is an international banking crisis where paper money becomes worthless, you will need to own some precious metals;  gold and silver.
In the U.S., you will want to own some pre-1964 silver dimes, quarters and half dollars (other countries have historically issued silver coinage).

Once you have cash and some silver coins, you should consider adding gold coins, which are minted by a number of countries.

Protecting Your Assets: Cash, Silver and Gold
Posted by Concerned Citizen on Thursday, November 19, 2009
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/0000000000000309
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: byron mc on December 28, 2009, 07:17:28 am
Quote
It is not the end of the world, simply the end of the world as you know it.


Quote
We are about to enter the most iteresting period in world economic history...

Quote
My guess is a new digital currency is being developed......it might be backed by cap and trade credits or some sort of digital gold.....I highly doubt the physical metal will be the collateral behind the currency.....but that doesn't mean you shouldn't own some as a hedge in case it is utilized.
December 09, 2009
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=308256&t=01002130057764754273
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 19, 2010, 06:33:21 am
A global fiasco is brewing in Japan (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100002951/a-global-fiasco-is-brewing-in-japan/)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sounded a warning about hyperinflation in Japan in his 2010 predictions (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6927923/Global-bear-rally-of-2009-will-end-as-Japans-hyperinflation-rips-economy-to-pieces.html).  Now he discusses the danger in more detail.  Others are noting the same warning signs.

See particularly the Bernholz charts for 5 hyperinflations - and the corresponding chart for the US and Japan.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on January 19, 2010, 07:35:35 am
Welcome back, Silver! Hope your stay will not be short-lived.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on January 19, 2010, 10:19:14 am
Oof...  these type of charts still send shivers down my spine.

I will echo Bill St. Clair's 'welcome back' message to you as well Silver.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on January 22, 2010, 06:20:26 am
Get ready people:

http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=223

Great article that identifies quite a few economic things to be on the lookout for and what they mean for this country.
Title: Senate backs increase in debt limit to $14.3 trillion
Post by: Silver on January 28, 2010, 01:32:02 pm
Fourteen teraFRNs.  A 15% increase over the limit set all of 35 DAYs ago (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt).  Let's see, 15% in 35 days, that's how much annualized?

Hey, what's wrong with my calculator?

OK, transistors and batteries aren't up to this one, but pencil and paper sez about 160% per year.

The government is taking in only 1 dollar for every 3 they are spending and committing, and the national debt only counts for fraction
of that spending.  But even that fraction is going up 160% a year.

When pilots of airplanes enter a spiral dive, they know they have to level the wings before they can arrest their rapid descent by pulling back on the yoke.  Pulling back on the yoke with the plane still turning just tightens the spiral, and the g forces build up until the wings or tail are pulled off.  End of story.

Our government is in a spiral dive, but the wings are not level and the yoke is pushed forward to the firewall.  The limit on forward yoke travel is being increased every month.  The pilot appears to have forgotten that there is hard earth somewhere below.  This will not end well, but it will end all too soon.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on January 29, 2010, 04:49:15 am
Yes, I saw that awesome little tidbit yesterday and nearly everyone I talked to about it had the same response, "Well, that's typical!"  After trying to explain to them the state of the economy their eyes began to glaze over and then someone in the group starting talking about the Superbowl.  Sigh...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on January 29, 2010, 02:24:18 pm
Rationality is not an attribute of the carbon-based genome.
When present, it is always an artificial and temporary
product of circumstance.


Silver?  Shiny!  Welcome back to the talk, man. :-)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on February 01, 2010, 03:30:11 am
Yay! He's back!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on February 04, 2010, 12:57:54 pm
Well, just to be pedantic..... :D

When you enter a spin, the generally accept way to get out is to:

1. Reduce the throttle - stop making it worse.
2. Put the nose down while applying opposite rudder. This evens out the air flow over both wings
    and stops the spin. The problem at this point is that you are still headed downwards with a lot
    of momentum.
3. Now raise the nose of the aircraft and apply full throttle to fight the downward momentum and
    claw your way back to altitude.

There are a couple of problems with this.

1. All aircraft cannot recover from a spin. Sorry.
2. While most private aircraft can recover from a spin, it may be subject
    to weight and balance limitations. Ie, if you start a spin with the balance
    too far aft, you're scr**ed.

We now return you to a slightly bent metaphor... :D

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on February 04, 2010, 10:15:49 pm
Spins such as the one this world economy is entering ALWAYS end with an empty toilet bowl refilling with fresh water.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on February 04, 2010, 11:14:22 pm
Only after all the sh*t has been washed away.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Klapton Isgod on February 05, 2010, 06:31:11 am
Let's just hope the volume of poop they've dropped on us doesn't take mulitple flushes.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 05, 2010, 01:09:48 pm
Overseas markets jittery on news that Spain and Portugal may be the next dominoes following Greece and Iceland.

Fears of 'Lehman-style' tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7159456/Fears-of-Lehman-style-tsunami-as-crisis-hits-Spain-and-Portugal.html)

Quote
Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the EU may to need to invoke emergency treaty powers under Article 122 to halt the contagion, issuing an EU guarantee for Greek debt. “If not contained, this could result in a `Lehman-style’ tsunami spreading across much of the EU.”

Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring bankruptcy risk on Portuguese debt surged 28 basis points on Thursday to a record 222 on reports that Jose Socrates was about to resign as prime minister after failing to secure enough votes in parliament to carry out austerity measures.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 09, 2010, 04:05:03 pm
America's Two Economies (http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/02/jobless-recovery-unemployment-economy-opinions-columnists-thomas-f-cooley-peter-rupert.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop)

Quote
The data are also confusing because they tell two different stories--or as Nouriel Roubini has described it, a tale of two different economies. Our primary goal here is to present the data in a way that best illustrates what is going on in the economy. This is important because it makes clear that this economic downturn is not your garden-variety recession. It is indeed the "Great Recession," and it is far from ov

The charts are kinda interesting. Stagflation of the 70's is as far back as I remember and it looks like we're on track to blow that out of the water.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on February 10, 2010, 01:57:07 pm
This will require a plunger.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 12, 2010, 09:27:08 am
This week's treasury auction left much to be desired.

30 Year Auction: A Solid "F" (http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3857712)

Quote
The more-worrying factor here is that we've got this "mystery" direct buyers out here again taking nearly 25% of the offered amount (who is bidding for that undisclosed?) and another 11% taken down by The Fed for the SOMA account.

Yet even with this Treasury had to pay up to get it to go and the bid-to-cover was anemic at best.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 03, 2010, 06:58:20 am
The federal reserve's monetary base rocketed a whopping $90 billion dollars in the two weeks ended February 24th.  That rate would lead to a 198% increase in a year.

Meanwhile, the broadest measure of money supply, M3, continues to decline.  This invariably signals a significant downtown in the months ahead.

The fed is pushing on a string.  They continue to create money at an all-time record pace, but it does not go into the broader economy.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on March 03, 2010, 10:25:20 am
<snip>
Meanwhile, the broadest measure of money supply, M3, continues to decline.  This invariably signals a significant downtown in the months ahead.
<snip>

Are there charts out there that show the M3 money supply?  Everything I've seen shows that M3 is no longer reported as of 2006.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: coloradohermit on March 03, 2010, 10:42:38 am
<snip>
Meanwhile, the broadest measure of money supply, M3, continues to decline.  This invariably signals a significant downtown in the months ahead.
<snip>

Are there charts out there that show the M3 money supply?  Everything I've seen shows that M3 is no longer reported as of 2006.
That would be at shadowstats (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on March 04, 2010, 04:52:55 am
Whoops, I saw the red line (M3) and didn't realize the blue line (M3-SGS Est) was the continuation.  The chart I saw was a thumbnail, perhaps I'm color blind when there are so few pixels. :laugh:

Why was M3 no longer reported after 2006?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 04, 2010, 05:39:05 am
Why was M3 no longer reported after 2006?

The federal reserve claimed it was no longer useful and too expensive to produce.  John Williams puts the lie to both claims by reconstructing and continuing the series himself.  The truth is that M3 tells uncomfortable truths about a central bank in deep trouble.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on March 13, 2010, 02:44:14 pm
via mises.org,
Government is 79% of the Economy (http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/03/13/government-is-79-of-the-economy)


See also shadowstats.com (http://www.shadowstats.com)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on March 13, 2010, 04:38:38 pm
via mises.org,
Government is 79% of the Economy (http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/03/13/government-is-79-of-the-economy)

    The 79% is a staggering figure and
    not sustainable without massive tax
    increases or massive spending cuts at
    all levels of government. It is highly
    doubtful that citizens will tolerate
    much more in taxes, so virtually all
    of the adjustment necessary must come
    from reductions in the size of gov't.

See also shadowstats.com (http://www.shadowstats.com)

I'm not surprised, but reading it does bring on waves of nausea. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on March 13, 2010, 08:23:04 pm
Even if not 79% right now, the growth pattern is in place and will
still reach a stage of small social involvement.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on March 14, 2010, 12:05:00 am
The 79% article (http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/03/13/government-is-79-of-the-economy/) is very well done.  Thank you Junker for showing it to me.  Unfortunately, I'm not surprised.  The USA is doing each others' laundry.  The end is near and will be very ugly.



It's late. I'm tired. I went looking for a hotlink for "doing each others' laundry" but couldn't find it.  Where did that phrase come from?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on March 14, 2010, 09:10:33 pm
Nice article, yes. But a well its site EconomicNoise.com (http://www.economicnoise.com)
or
 Monty Pelerin's World: Economics, Finance and Politics Through The Prism of Classical Liberalism

is doing OK with others too. "Monty Pelerin" is a cross-over from the Mises.org blogs.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on March 15, 2010, 05:25:06 am
79 freaking percent?!?!

 :puke:

Very good article though.  I'm passing it on to my like-minded friends.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 15, 2010, 06:27:06 am
Quote
79% is a staggering figure and not sustainable without massive tax increases or massive spending cuts at
all levels of government.

It is not sustainable, period.  The parasite has become larger than the host. Either the parasite is removed, or the host will die, and the parasite along with it.

Things that can't go on, don't go on.  We will probably live to see the end of this folly.  It is what comes after that concerns me.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 16, 2010, 12:21:13 pm
In February 2010, the federal government ran a monthly budget deficit of $220.9 billion. Tax receipts were $107.5 billion, expenditures were $328.4 billion.

They are spending $3.05 for every dollar they get in taxes.

I picked the wrong decade to stop drinking....
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on March 17, 2010, 05:55:59 am
I think I'm getting 'number numb' as I'm agonizing over this every day.  This is not sustainable!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on March 17, 2010, 10:46:45 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

2009

$3,518 billions
or
$3.5 trillions


Not sustainable? One might say it is the result of several factors in
western/world culture that refuse to see or consider the problem.
More politics... more war... more thievery... all built in to the way of life.
Anything different will come and slow.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on April 06, 2010, 09:09:54 am
Here is an interesting article: National debt seen heading for crisis level (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2010/04/05/MNI21COVR1.DTL)

Quote
Health care may have been the last big bang of the Obama presidency.

With ferocious speed, the financial crisis, recession and efforts to combat the recession have swung the U.S. debt from worrisome to ruinous, promising to handcuff the administration.

The National Debt will reach 90% of GDP within a decade & will reach 63% of GDP sometime this year. 

Quote
"In my judgment, a crisis could occur next week or 10 years from now," said Rudolph Penner, an Urban Institute economist who co-chaired a huge budget report sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. "I don't really think we can go much beyond 10 years."

The People (bless their ignorant little hearts) are concerned about the rising deficits, but do not want spending cuts or tax increases. 

So, hyperinflation will begin when their concern hits the tipping point.  When will that be? 


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on April 06, 2010, 10:14:00 am
My father-in-law thinks Obamacare is an excellent idea.  Every time I try to talk to the guy he dismisses my concerns.  "You must get that information from a 'right-wing' source."  And on and on it goes...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on April 06, 2010, 10:34:26 pm
My father-in-law thinks Obamacare is an excellent idea.  Every time I try to talk to the guy he dismisses my concerns.  "You must get that information from a 'right-wing' source."  And on and on it goes...

Wait until the IRS fines him for not having the "Correct Insurance levels for his age and financial situation".

Then have that talk with him about fascism and all of its many "benefits".
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: motomom on April 10, 2010, 05:09:34 pm
My father-in-law thinks Obamacare is an excellent idea.  Every time I try to talk to the guy he dismisses my concerns.  "You must get that information from a 'right-wing' source."  And on and on it goes...

Wait until the IRS fines him for not having the "Correct Insurance levels for his age and financial situation".

Then have that talk with him about fascism and all of its many "benefits".

Or, when they have that little discussion with him about being older and taking too much effort and money to keep him alive.  Tisn't fair to the younger generation, ya know.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on April 17, 2010, 07:46:34 am
John Williams has updated his Hyperinflation Report (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-2010) for 2010.
This is must-read material so forgive me if others have already posted the link; it bears repeating.

He has moved up his prediction for the onset of the full-bore hyperinflation to the next 5 years, from a previous range of 2010-18.

Quote
A Great Collapse. The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on April 17, 2010, 02:01:42 pm
John Williams has updated his Hyperinflation Report (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-2010) for 2010.
This is must-read material so forgive me if others have already posted the link; it bears repeating.

Quote
A Great Collapse. The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.

John Williams/shadowstats.com is following the trends

    and there is trouble in Wolf City, Wyoming

          and other places across the prairie...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 04, 2010, 05:10:21 am
Wow...  only 250 billion in physical cash currently in circulation.  Less than 2% of the M3 supply...  A country-wide bank run would last, say, an hour before the cash ran out?  Scary times indeed.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on May 06, 2010, 09:03:06 am
Jim Rogers: This is only the beginning of Currency crisis (http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/jim-rogers-this-is-only-the-beginning-of-currency-crisis/)

Quote
You have been warning us for quite sometime now about our currency crisis. Is that what is finally upon us?

The currency crisis has been going on for a while. It did not start this week. It has been happening for a while. It started with, maybe depending on how you want to look at it, with Iceland or Latvia or many other countries who have been having problems, and the currency crisis is continuing and is going to get worse. This is not the end. Over the next year or more, we are going to see more. So prepare yourself.

Quote
What are you shorting?

I am shorting a stock market index in the US, I am shorting an emerging market index and I am shorting one of the large western international financial institutions. It is an emerging market index; it is not a specific country. It is an index of many emerging markets and that is mainly because the emerging markets have grown more than most things here during this big recovery. So that is where some of the excesses are developing. As far as the large western banks is because it is a bank which people think is extremely sound if I am right, there are going to be more currency problems and more turmoil in the markets, it will have to come down.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Basil Fishbone on May 06, 2010, 03:48:29 pm
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100506F.html

Gold Pushes Above $1,200 in After-Hours Trading as U.S. Stock Market Melts Down

By Jim Wyckoff
06 May 2010, 3:04 p.m.

Gold futures got another boost of buying power after the official close of Comex trading Thursday, pushing to a fresh five-month high of $1,209.20 an ounce, basis June futures. Bulls got another technical boost as gold prices shot past what was psychological resistance at $1,200.00 an ounce. A plunge in the U.S. stock market as traders watched on television rioting in the streets of Atens prompted the heavy buying interest in gold, on a safe-haven move amid the keen uncertainty in the markets at present. Gold prices are now within striking distance of the all-time high of $1,227.50, basis nearby Comex gold futures. ...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-06/dow-plunges-most-since-1987-before-paring-losses-euro-tumbles.html

Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro Tumbles
May 06, 2010, 4:08 PM EDT

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its biggest intraday loss since the market crash of 1987, the euro slid to a 14-month low and yields on Greek, Spanish and Italian bonds surged on concern European leaders aren’t doing enough to stem the region’s debt crisis. U.S. Treasuries soared.

New York Stock Exchange spokesman Rich Adamonis said “there were a number of erroneous trades” during the plunge. The NYSE told CNBC that there were no system errors as speculation of erroneous trades swirled through the market. The Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it is working with other markets to review the plunge.

The Dow average lost as much as 998.5 points, or 9.2 percent, before paring its drop to 348.63 points at the 4 p.m. close of trading in New York. It ended the day at 10,519.49, a two-month low. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell as much as 8.6 percent, its biggest plunge since December 2008, before trimming declines to end down 3.3 percent at 1,128.03. ...<snip>...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on May 07, 2010, 08:51:14 am
Chicago markets caught in domino effect (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-05-06/business/ct-biz-0507-markets-chicago--20100506_1_stock-index-trading-cboe-stock-exchange-domino-effect)

Quote
Exelon plummeted to a hundredth of a penny during trading before closing down 4.2 percent, at $41.86. Philip Morris of New York, the world's largest publicly traded tobacco company, sank 96 percent, to $2, before ending at $47, a drop of 3.5 percent.

Why do I get the feeling that a lots of worthless FRN's were made in this hiccup? :tinfoil:

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on May 07, 2010, 04:39:44 pm
Chicago markets caught in domino effect (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-05-06/business/ct-biz-0507-markets-chicago--20100506_1_stock-index-trading-cboe-stock-exchange-domino-effect)

Quote
Exelon plummeted to a hundredth of a penny during trading before closing down 4.2 percent, at $41.86. Philip Morris of New York, the world's largest publicly traded tobacco company, sank 96 percent, to $2, before ending at $47, a drop of 3.5 percent.

Why do I get the feeling that a lots of worthless FRN's were made in this hiccup? :tinfoil:

ND

Call me paranoid, but this sounds like a concerted attack against the American economy by gaming the trading systems.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on May 08, 2010, 09:50:50 am
Call me paranoid, but this sounds like a concerted attack against the American economy by gaming the trading systems.

The New World Order folks are much like the most serious gaming geeks you have ever seen. The difference is in scale and that their game pieces are flesh and bone ... and an occasional aberrant one or two with brains and will. 

Of course they are gaming the trading systems. Heck, only about 10% of the sales in precious metals are actually in metal. The gamers trade paper silver certificates amongst themselves to keep keep the game pieces from finding stability in real money. When the players finally sneeze and the paper disappears, only they and a few crackpots will have anything of value.

Aren't we all trying to get off the game board?  Isn't that why we are here - to share strategies, encourage each other and commiserate?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on May 08, 2010, 03:17:49 pm
Call me paranoid, but this sounds like a concerted attack against the American economy by gaming the trading systems.

The New World Order folks are much like the most serious gaming geeks you have ever seen. The difference is in scale and that their game pieces are flesh and bone ... and an occasional aberrant one or two with brains and will. 

Of course they are gaming the trading systems. Heck, only about 10% of the sales in precious metals are actually in metal. The gamers trade paper silver certificates amongst themselves to keep keep the game pieces from finding stability in real money. When the players finally sneeze and the paper disappears, only they and a few crackpots will have anything of value.

Aren't we all trying to get off the game board?  Isn't that why we are here - to share strategies, encourage each other and commiserate?

Pretty much.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 08, 2010, 04:40:29 pm
The gamers trade paper silver certificates amongst themselves to
keep the game pieces from finding stability in real money. When
the players finally sneeze and the paper disappears, only they and a
few crackpots will have anything of value.

Aren't we all trying to get off the game board?  Isn't that why we are
here - to share strategies, encourage each other and commiserate?

 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 24, 2010, 09:00:28 am
The War Street Journal reported today that the Federal Reserve voted to monetize still more debt at their August 10th meeting.

Fed Split on Move to Bolster Sluggish Economy (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703589804575446262796725120.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories)

Don't be fooled by the headline, remember who the WSJ represents.  (Hint: it isn't you.)  The "dissent" was only on the details of how much and how fast to create money, not whether to do so.

The short story is that the fed took on roughly $1 trillion in toxic waste mortgage backed securities, paying 100% price on paper that the market wouldn't touch at 15% on the dollar.  Since the fed has been forcing interest rates to stupidly low levels, lots of people are refinancing their homes.  When they refinance a mortgage that is included in the fed's paper, the mortgage gets paid, the interest payments stop coming in, and the fed's balance sheet goes down.

Now Bernanke and all the lying criminals around him have prattled endlessly about "exit strategies" and other euphemisms for how they will get rid of the giant bolus of shit they've ingested.  Now comes a chance to do so gradually.  If the fed did nothing, they estimate that the size of their book would drop about $400 billion over the next year or so.  That's about 20% of their $2 Trillion pot.

But of course the fed will never, ever allow their assets, which is the base of their power, to be reduced.  So they will begin creating more money to buy more treasuries.

This is the way the world ends.  The paper hangers never stop of their own free will.  They swear mighty oaths and give thoughtful speeches about undoing the damage they have done, reducing the excess supply of money, and never printing any more.  Then they go and print more.  In this case, they do so precisely because the market is paying down debts, and the fed doesn't like its subjects to be less enslaved by debt. 

John Williams, who has been forecasting a hyperinflationary collapse for some time, has been pulling in the time frame, from 6-10 years, to 5 years (his forecast at the start of 2010) to sometime in the next 6-12 months. 

Quote
I think the odds are extremely high that we'll see it break within the next year. I would put it six months to a year, outside.
Read the interview. (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21676.html)

The actions of the fed provides support for Mr. Williams' prediction.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Clip Johnson on August 24, 2010, 02:36:52 pm
In February 2010, the federal government ran a monthly budget deficit of $220.9 billion. Tax receipts were $107.5 billion, expenditures were $328.4 billion.

They are spending $3.05 for every dollar they get in taxes.

I picked the wrong decade to stop drinking....

Yeah, but its a fine time to start sniffin glue! :laugh:

In all seriousness, thanks for posting all that you do Silver. Your insight as well as your links have been most helpful in me understanding some of the more complex issues.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 24, 2010, 04:07:43 pm
Depends on which "world" you want to live in. I see this as a possible beginning to a real and free world. The grain of wheat must die (be transformed) in order for the sprout to form and live.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on August 24, 2010, 05:38:45 pm
Depends on which "world" you want to live in. I see this as a possible beginning to a real and free world. The grain of wheat must die (be transformed) in order for the sprout to form and live.



I was thinking rice, but yeah. (wheat allergy don'chya know)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on August 24, 2010, 07:05:30 pm
Quote
I see this as a possible beginning to a real and free world.

Yeah me too...............and I don't lament the death of the old world either..............I only look forward to the new...........

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 24, 2010, 08:30:33 pm
I won't miss the old order and the rule of the elites, but I fear the rule of the mob.  Right now, if the wheels come off, I fear this country would raise up a tyrant.  Not everyone would agree, but that's democracy right?  Only the majority of voters have to agree, and most people will go along.

We need time to change that, to teach ourselves and others the lessons of liberty.  Time to return to values of honesty, thrift, hard work, self reliance, personal responsibility.  Time to rid ourselves of debt and the notion that government can do anything beneficial.  But time is one thing we do not have in abundance.

It will be interesting.  I'm too old and tired to think it will be grand.  But perhaps it will be better in our lifetime.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 25, 2010, 06:02:46 am
I won't miss the old order and the rule of the elites, but I fear the rule of the mob.  Right now, if the wheels come off, I fear this country would raise up a tyrant.

Wannabe tyrants we will always have with us. :( And sheeple who want them to be their masters, of course.

I keep hearing what sounds like "save the world." Meaning, "we've got to convince everyone of...." It's never going to happen. The best we can do is create communities of committed people who will live and work in true freedom, dedicated to mutual defense against the would be tyrants in whatever form they come.

We can't wait until everyone is on board with this because it will never happen.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on August 25, 2010, 10:51:22 am
The best we can do is create communities of committed people who will live and work in true freedom, dedicated to mutual defense against the would be tyrants in whatever form they come.

Amen to that.  Unfortunately I'm hitting brick walls every where I turn.  Plenty of great neighbors, just a little clueless to everything that is going on.  Or...  they are just veeery good at OPSEC.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on August 26, 2010, 05:06:21 pm
The War Street Journal reported today that the Federal Reserve voted to monetize still more debt at their August 10th meeting.
...
Peace,

Silver

I just heard this story on NPR this afternoon.  The Fed has purchased 1.25 trillion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities.  How To Spend $1.25 Trillion (http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/08/26/129451895/how-to-spend-1-25-trillion)

Quote
The Fed was able to spend so much money so quickly because it has a unique power: It can create money out of thin air, whenever it decides to do so. So, Dzina explains, the mortgage team would decide to buy a bond, they’d push a button on the computer — "and voila, money is created."
They (the Fed people) sounded as if it was cool, very excited. 


Earlier, there was a story about the money that the Fed had created and put into reserve for banks.  They hold the money (effectively keeping it out of circulation) for the banks & pay the banks interest.  Apparently, the Fed is considering (or is being encouraged to) reducing the interest rate to 0% or even charging the banks for holding the money.  They want the money to be used for loans to businesses. 

Sounds like fun. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: motomom on August 28, 2010, 01:20:52 am
Thanks for a great post, Silver.  I too have been watching the money stuff very carefully.  That is how the world will end, I agree.  It will be a monetary collapse, and the Feds will already have a system set up for the IMF to take over and print a new currency.  The normal folks will have to do everything on the black market, or do without.  I think it is going to happen lots sooner than 5 years.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 01, 2010, 06:57:26 am
There's a decent essay on how a hyperinflation might occur in the near future (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.html).
I don't agree with everything he writes, but he understands the difference between inflation and hyperinflation:

Quote
Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It’s not that they want more money—they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency.

I also think it is quite likely that something trivial will set off the stampede.  I've commented about a growing feeling of dread before, but it is palpable now and people everywhere are taking notice. 

Gary North's essay How the Bankers Have Trapped Bernanke (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north881.html) makes a good case that the fed will start massive money creation again, and probably soon.

They always do.  That's what happens to every paper currency, every time.   There are no exceptions.  The dollar has had a longer run than most.  It's time is near.

I think it was Dr. North who came up with this apt metaphor:

We're all sitting on a big pile of gunpowder kegs.  There are fuses lit, some that we can see, others that we can hear but not see.  We've been here for a long time and the tension is getting unbearable.  There's no question about what will happen, only when.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 04, 2010, 06:38:44 am
$75 billion a month. For the next 8 months.  This is how the fed proposes to help us.

They are creating money from nothing, using it to by Treasuries, then the fedgov uses that money to buy goods and services.  And to kill people.

75 billion a month is
2.5 billion a day is
100 million an hour is
1.75 million per second.

If they bothered to print it, they would need to print 1 million pieces of green paper per hour, each stamped "100."  The presses would have to run 24/7, 365 days a year, no breaks.

This is extraordinarily inflationary.  The huge increase in the money supply in 2008 was and still is largely confined to "excess reserves" held by banks at the fed. It has not entered the economy. The new money being created today is spent into the economy right away, bidding up the price of everything.

Helicopter Ben is doing exactly what he promised, but it's easier and cheaper to give the money to a government that is spending $3 for every $1 it gets in taxes than it is to hire a fleet of helicopters.  Helicopters needs trained pilots and fuel.  Government bureaucrats need neither training nor supervision, they can waste money better than anyone.

You'll know the fed has helped you when ATMs no longer give out $20 bills, just $100.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 04, 2010, 06:40:48 am
Were they bothering to print it, the fed would need to produce two piles of the size shown in the picture - every minute of every day.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on November 04, 2010, 10:50:44 am
$75 billion a month. For the next 8 months.  This is how the fed proposes to help us.

They are creating money from nothing, using it to by Treasuries, then the fedgov uses that money to buy goods and services.  And to kill people.

75 billion a month is
2.5 billion a day is
100 million an hour is
1.75 million per second.

If they bothered to print it, they would need to print 1 million pieces of green paper per hour, each stamped "100."  The presses would have to run 24/7, 365 days a year, no breaks.

That really puts it into perspective.  My tiny brain can barely even process such a staggering amount - and this is just for this particular 'stimulus'.  100 million an hour?  Wha... how...  Gaaaah!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 04, 2010, 11:44:22 am
I'm sorry, I made a mistake.  The War Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703506904575592471354774194.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEADNewsCollection) reports that the total is $110 billion a month - $75 billion  a month for "stimulus" plus $35 billion a month "to replace mortgage bonds in its portfolio that are being retired."  That's what happens when people pay their mortgages -  the fed conjures up more money!

So it's $153 million an hour, and they need to print one of those stacks of money every 24 seconds.

For now. There is no way this will be the last of the money printing.  It will get worse before it gets better.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on November 04, 2010, 11:36:50 pm
Put together every producer of product in the USA ... that's General Motors, General Mills, General Electric, General Dynamics and General Sanders - oops, no Sanders was a Colonel, I forgot.  Anyway, the total of EVERYTHING Made in the USA on one year is less in value than the dollars the Fed has decided to pour onto the fire to smother it.

Somehow they have the masses thinking this is a favor to us. I wish I could laugh about it.  It is incredibly sad.  I know so many people with dollar-denominated assets in the bank, going to college for a job that won't exist, living at the edge on an income that is about to disappear ...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on November 08, 2010, 07:10:30 pm
You can easily get back at the government and the federal reserve by buying gold and silver.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on November 08, 2010, 10:47:36 pm
You can easily get back at the government and the federal reserve by buying gold and silver.

Happily, I did.  October 30th I went partners on a monster box (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_americaneagle.php) that has been screaming upward in value since its purchase.

Today we sold a really great car, an '84 Mercedes 300D turbo, for $1500 and immediately called Northwest Territorial Mint to convert it to silver.  An hour later we had already made $84 on the silver.  While the Mercedes would hold its value, the silver will hold it better.

Next Monday we will be refilling the pantry.  Our tiny silver holdings are screaming upward. Our crappy jobs are going to be among the last to go. We are starting to feel like we are improving our position for the god-awful future we foresee.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on November 09, 2010, 11:09:32 am
Good thinking on converting the car into something "real".  I did the same a month or so ago.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on November 09, 2010, 03:13:30 pm
... that's General Motors, General Mills, General Electric, General Dynamics and General Sanders - oops, no Sanders was a Colonel, I forgot...

Thanks for making me laugh!

SS - Good to see you on here :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 25, 2011, 05:18:50 pm
John Williams has updated his Hyperinflation Report (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011) for 2011.

This is must-read material.  Sit down and have something strong to drink at hand before you read it.

His original prediction was for onset of a full-bore hyperinflation sometime between 2010 and 18.
His 2010 update moved that to the next five years.

Since then we've had
   

He now anticipates the onset of hyperinflation between March 2011 and one year from now.  That's right, it may already be underway.

Quote
The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.

Quote
The early stages of the hyperinflation would be marked simply by an accelerating upturn in consumer prices, a pattern that already has begun to unfold in response to QE2.

Quote
Physical gold (sovereign coins priced near bullion prices) remains the primary hedge in terms of preserving the purchasing power of current dollars.  In like manner, silver is in this category.  Also, holding stronger major currencies such as the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, likely are good hedges (see Financial Hedges and Investments. ).

In terms of survival on a day-to-day basis, U.S.-based individuals should be building a store of goods in preparation for a manmade disaster, much as they would for a natural disaster such as an earthquake.  Economic activity probably would devolve to a barter system, but such could take months to become fully functional (see Barter System.).

The time for preparation is nearly over.  The hall is rented, the orchestra is not only engaged, it's warming up.  You can hear the music if you listen.  Soon we shall see who can dance.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on May 25, 2011, 06:49:57 pm
Ya' spose if it happens slow enough no one will notice? :laugh:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 25, 2011, 07:04:54 pm
We need to convince the other currencies to hyper-inflate
in unison-- then nobody need hold back.  And, think of all
the money the govts will get to spend.  Think of all the
money the politicians will get to spend.
        Such a deal!!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on May 25, 2011, 09:04:19 pm
Oh, and while we're at it impose price and wage controls, to assure that everyone gets and gives "their fair share"  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 26, 2011, 04:03:10 am
I know it's irony, but be careful what you wish for. 

The charade has lasted this long in part because other currencies are inflating in unison. Williams' report lays out in devastating detail how the US government and federal reserve have broken away and are inflating at a rate other countries cannot and will not follow.

As for wage and price controls, they are nearly certain, sooner rather than later.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 26, 2011, 09:26:53 am
"Inflating in unison" may very well have matched some people's
understanding the system way back. As the US became the 'big gun'
after war2, it got the prize position.

   Bretton Woods system (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system)

   Post-war international gold-dollar standard (1946–1971) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard#Post-war_international_gold-dollar_standard_.281946.E2.80.931971.29)

And now thinks it can inflate all it wants, without serious consequence. Typical hubrisof a 'Mr. Big'.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on May 26, 2011, 01:42:39 pm
 :panic:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on May 26, 2011, 08:43:17 pm
Quote
As for wage and price controls, they are nearly certain, sooner rather than later.

Of course they are...........after all, how can one fight runaway prices due to hyperinflation other than to lock the prices.
And how can one fight runaway wages due to hyperinflation other than to lock those wages.

The bottom will drop out of production either way, but that's either besides the point, or precisely the point.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on May 26, 2011, 11:14:08 pm
... and then The Government will declare war on the hoarders and selfish farmers who refuse to distribute their food and wealth to those in need.  I'm sure you all have read the grasshopper and ant story where the selfish ant gets tossed out of his home cuz the grasshopper victim needs a place to stay and food to eat.  ... Guilty of being prepared...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on May 26, 2011, 11:24:13 pm
Think I heard that story..........

Didn't the grasshopper end up croaking too. because those who gave the ant the toss ate all the food and stayed in the house themselves?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on May 26, 2011, 11:46:11 pm
The way I heard the story, the grasshopper begged the ants for food and a warm place to stay, and they just said no... and he decided he was entitled and tried to force his way in whereby the ants added him to the larder.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on May 27, 2011, 12:45:49 am
The way I heard the story, the grasshopper begged the ants for food and a warm place to stay, and they just said no... and he decided he was entitled and tried to force his way in whereby the ants added him to the larder.

ok, now that was funny.

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 28, 2011, 09:52:23 am
Gary North has a good article on Trigger Points (http://lewrockwell.com/north/north985.html) at LRC.

Quote
To survive the coming fiscal cataclysm, one must be vocal now. One must also put his money where his mouth is. And he had better keep more of his money than the competition.

Yep.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 28, 2011, 10:25:28 pm
From the North-pirce:


North brings up interesting (Trigger) points.

Is this event in the history books at your school-- high, college, or any?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 29, 2011, 04:16:55 am
We studied it in high school - but it wasn't a government school.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on May 29, 2011, 02:37:34 pm
Wonderful.  I'm glad somebody, somewhere thought it an important point (watershed?)
in American culture.


And noted-- non-govt school-- a place where someone might know and understand
the politics of "fascism" (Gosh, Julie-Anne, what are fasces?).



As We Go Marching
(1944 in USA  by John Flynn)

PART ONE -   THE SOIL OF FASCISM: ITALY
PART TWO -   THE BAD FASCISM: GERMANY
PART THREE - THE GOOD FASCISM: AMERICA

available on-line, free, if you read
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 01, 2011, 01:17:55 pm
Here we go: Prepare for More Money Printing (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43233866)

Quote
Investors should prepare themselves for a third round of quantitative easing, Simon Maughn, co-head of European equities at MF Global, told CNBC Wednesday.

“The bond market is going in one direction which is up-falling yields which is telling you quite clearly the direction of economic travel is downwards. Downgrades. QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing) is coming,” said Maughn. “The bond markets are all smarter than us, and that’s exactly what the bond markets are telling me.”

QE2 isn't even over yet, but if this fellow is right, QE3 is nearly certain. He's not the only one predicting QE3: Endless quantitative easing. (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena052711.html) 

The  next round kicks the can down the road until the 4th quarter, but increases the probability of a hyperinflation - and moves the start date closer. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: jamie on June 01, 2011, 02:02:18 pm
From the North-pirce:

    On April 5, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt, in office for one month, signed
    Executive Order 6102.

      Executive Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all
      but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them
      to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 per troy ounce. Under the Trading
      With the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917, as amended on March 9, 1933, violation of
      the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 ($167,700 if adjusted for inflation as
      of 2010) or up to ten years in prison, or both.

North brings up interesting (Trigger) points.

Is this event in the history books at your school-- high, college, or any?


It should be mentioned that after the gold was confiscated from private hands at $20.67 the parasite then revalued it to $35.00 if I remember correctly.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: NuclearDruid on June 17, 2011, 12:48:28 pm
Misery index hits new high (http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/17/misery-index-hits-new-high/)

Quote
This is worth bearing in mind for those who drone on endlessly about "jobless stagflation." Yes, 9.1% joblessness and 3.6% inflation are both bad news. But hey, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in the November 1980 election, unemployment was 7.5% and inflation was, um, 12.7%, for a nifty misery score above 20.

ND
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: jamie on June 17, 2011, 03:21:16 pm
Misery index hits new high (http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/17/misery-index-hits-new-high/)

Quote
This is worth bearing in mind for those who drone on endlessly about "jobless stagflation." Yes, 9.1% joblessness and 3.6% inflation are both bad news. But hey, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in the November 1980 election, unemployment was 7.5% and inflation was, um, 12.7%, for a nifty misery score above 20.

ND


I just take it as given that these gubermint figures are a lie.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 17, 2011, 04:03:58 pm
Smart man.  Of course they are lies.

If one wants to compare the figures from Ronald Regan's time to today, an honest calculation requires that you compute the unemployment and inflation figures the same way.

That's what John Williams does at Shadowstats.com.  He computes the figures using the methods in place in 1980.

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.3%

Misery index: 33.5  :puke:

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 18, 2011, 06:58:30 am
Yeah I read that site too.   Pretty damn creepy what it reveals.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on June 24, 2011, 08:33:46 pm
In paper money we shall drown.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Note



or read the Hon. E.G. Spaulding's story (1869):

History of the Legal Tender Paper Money
Issued During the Great Rebellion.
Being a Loan without Interest and
a National Currency

prepared by Hon. E.G. Spaulding - Chairman, the Sub-Committee of Ways and Means at the Time the Act Was Passed (It's on the web.)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on June 27, 2011, 08:22:53 am
Silver said:
Quote
QE2 isn't even over yet, but if this fellow is right, QE3 is nearly certain.

Bloomberg Says:

Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/fed-seen-buying-25-billion-a-month-in-treasuries-after-qe2-comes-to-end.html)

Quote
While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.

Mobius Dollar - my new avatar~


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on June 27, 2011, 10:21:29 am
Quote
continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns

Me no understand... :huh:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on June 27, 2011, 10:41:36 am
Quote
continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns
Me no understand... :huh:

Well - since The Fed is not a government agency, is not monitored by any external sources, and not answerable to anyone but themselves - the answer is they can do whatever they want no matter if it is not possible.

Another board has it summed up like this:

"The same way a man dying of thirst can drink his own urine. Doesn't mean it works in the long run. "


IMO -  that is pretty accurate in this case.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Klapton Isgod on June 27, 2011, 11:01:01 am
Quote
continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns

Me no understand... :huh:

If I understand this correctly, it means that when earlier treasury bonds are paid off, the Fed is using the interest to buy more debt.  They are "rolling over" treasuries as they mature.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 27, 2011, 07:07:02 pm
If I understand this correctly, it means that when earlier treasury bonds are paid off, the Fed is using the interest to buy more debt.  They are "rolling over" treasuries as they mature.

"Rolling over" treasuries represents less than half of what they plan to spend.  The linked article quoted $9.4 billion per month in rolling over treasuries.

To keep up with prepayments of toxic waste mortgage securities, they will buy $10 billion to $16 billion per month in treasuries.

Note they don't touch the truly toxic waste, the large fraction of mortgages that will never be repaid.  The newly created money is used to purchase Treasuries in the amount that mortgages are actually retired.  They roll over paid-off debt into Treasuries, which will never be paid off. The toxic sludge already will never be paid off, so they don't have to roll it over.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on June 27, 2011, 09:53:36 pm
OK

I can make change [and count back to the amount tendered as was the correct style prior to the advent of the computerized register] and understand that one cannot borrow themselves out of debt BUT an economist I am Not.

[Give me a rolling deck and about six halyards and I'm comfortable ... ]   :rolleyes:

So my question is this ...
Would someone like to give me a thumbnail sketch of the reaction [in the markets and on the street Please] if the People were to stand up and force Congress to remove the Fed completely in one motion.

OR .. is that even possible?
Are we stuck with the financial mess even after we remove the main parasites from the body politic?

Thank You, in advance, for not using esoteric terms in your explanation. {an economist I am Not.}
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 28, 2011, 09:27:17 am

Would someone like to give me a thumbnail sketch of the reaction [in the markets and on the street Please] if the People were to stand up and force Congress to remove the Fed completely in one motion.

OR .. is that even possible?
Are we stuck with the financial mess even after we remove the main parasites from the body politic?

I'm not an economist, but I play one when I forecast for my business.  :rolleyes:

It's important to understand the purpose of the fed.  It is almost 100 years old.  The US did just fine for over 100 years, and the colonies did just fine for centuries before that without an American central bank.  You can read about how money and commerce functioned in the days before 1913 to get an idea of how it might function if by some miracle we were to rid ourselves of this particular tyranny.

The fed is designed to steal from the poor and give to the richest of the rich.  It does this via systemic inflation.  It's very good at what it does.  In the 98 years since it's creation, the fed has inflated away 98% of the value of the dollar.  While direct comparisons across a century are difficult, what you could buy in 1913 for 2 cents costs a dollar today.

(Let's see, 98% in 98 years, so in 2013 what will the percentage be?)

There are two groups of people who profit from inflation: governments, who get to spend beyond their means, and bankers, who get the newly created money first and get to spend it before prices increase.

If by some magic the fed were to vanish tomorrow, I would expect the following things to happen, but I might be wrong:

The US dollar would collapse.
The US government would default on it's unpayable debt.
The federal government would collapse.
The troops stationed overseas would either settle there or make their own way home.  They would receive no more pay.
Most big banks and plenty of small banks would fail.

Life and commerce would continue.  In time, one or more new currencies would arise.  In pre-1913 America, banks issued their own notes, supposedly backed by gold or sometimes silver in their vaults.  Honest bankers are at least as rare as honest politicians, so nearly all of the banks issued more notes than they had gold, counting on the fact that few people actually turned in the notes and demanded the gold.  Money from nothing; before 1913 banks did it, after 1913 banks continued to do it and the fed backed them.  It's very profitable to make money from nothing.

The further away from a bank a note circulated, the less certain it was that the bank was sound.  There were people who would buy up notes at a discount far from the  issuing banks, make the long journey to the bank, and demand the gold.  Banks hated them, and states passed laws against them.  In an internet age, I'm not sure how this would work.  It would be much more difficult for banks to steal in this particular way, and distance wouldn't add to uncertainty.  The con works now only because so few people understand anything at all about the nature of money.

Pre-fed, from time to time depositors would realize that the bank had more notes than gold, and would rush to get their money out.  This was called a bank run.  While very difficult for the group of people who lost their savings, it was very beneficial to the market and the economy.  Bank runs weed out the most dishonest banks and shut them down. 

The federal reserve was put in place specifically to prevent bank runs.  When depositors realize they've been conned, the fed creates new dollars and gives them to the bank.  Instead of only those foolish enough to patronize a dishonest bank losing, everyone (except the government and the banksters) loses, as the newly created money dilutes the purchasing power of everyone.

So we've had nearly a century of supporting the most dishonest and poorly run banks.  Too big to fail.

In summary, it's probably not possible to rid ourselves of the fed by normal political means.  The federal reserve is the primary reason the government can run a perpetual debt that everyone knows will never be repaid.  The federal reserve is the reason the US government can fight 5 wars (or is it 6 this week?).  If they had to raise those incredible sums of money wasted in war via taxation, there would have been wholesale revolt long ago.

If by some miracle the fed were ended, there would be a sharp collapse.   In the best case, a freed market would quickly rebound, and begin allocating capital and goods to the highest purposes, instead of to war, military-industrial complex, and financial speculation. We'd see a surge in prosperity and quality of life greater than anything in the past century.

In the worst case, a new tyrant would arise and lead us into WW3.

The only peaceful way out is to educate enough Americans about the nature of money and the true purpose of the federal reserve.  That's why Ron Paul runs for President, not to win, but to force a conversation about war, money, and liberty.  If you watch the debates in 2008 and 2011, you can see that he's had a profound effect.

That's why I write here.  There are thousands of people working to spread the word.  It's a long shot that we'll make enough difference to prevent the final collapse.  The better bet is that after the collapse there will be a sizable remnant who understand its true causes well enough to begin the rebuilding, and to resist the otherwise inevitable slide to tyranny and destruction of the human race.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 28, 2011, 03:50:10 pm
I suggest watching Zeitgeist- Addendum or Moving Forward. They spell out how the monetary system works in a way that is easy to understand. You can watch them for free on YouTube.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on June 28, 2011, 06:55:07 pm
But, expect that the Zeitgeist movies are movies and bow to the
marketing and sales Gods.  It also seems they also sell one of the
"How to Save the World" stories and may distort things for their own
propaganda purposes-- beware, or be aware.

Also note that they'll be happy to sell you their 20¢ DVDs for only $5.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 28, 2011, 08:41:01 pm
But, expect that the Zeitgeist movies are movies and bow to the
marketing and sales Gods.  It also seems they also sell one of the
"How to Save the World" stories and may distort things for their own
propaganda purposes-- beware, or be aware.

Also note that they'll be happy to sell you their 20¢ DVDs for only $5.
I'm not promoting them, just saying that they do a good job of explaining how the monetary system really works. :mellow: I don't agree 100% with their ideology, but it is interesting to see their point of view.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on June 28, 2011, 10:10:59 pm
I was trying to post so as not to imply that.

What you say may bye right.

I just wanted to warn on the other stuff... be awake.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on June 28, 2011, 10:37:20 pm
Point taken Junker.

EVERYONE is out for their own best interests.

ME, You, Everyone. 
If they are not then they are truly sleeping sheeple and seriously need awakening.
They will be the earliest casualties in the collapse to come.
Got some in your own family? Allow for them in your preps.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Thanks Silver.

I sure wouldn't want to be a serviceman in a foreign hostile zone when the "balloon goes up".
There will be plenty enough hostile zones right here in this hemisphere me thinks.
[Most major metro areas ?]
Ahem ...
Do you see anyway to help the process along without throwing one's crusty salt soaked carcass on the tank treads? [Well ? Yours may not be but Mine is ....]

In the Classified ads for today:

Monkey has wrench needs objective

IF you get my drift?
What sort of "investments" would facilitate the process?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 29, 2011, 09:35:19 am
Be careful what you wish for.

I don't look forward to the collapse.  I've prepared for it but that doesn't mean I welcome it.

As for hastening it, the federal, state, and local governments are doing pretty much everything possible in that regard.  The fed is certainly doing its part.  Even if I wanted to hasten the collapse, I don't know of much I could do that would be noticed next to the efforts of a parasite that is already consuming fully 2/3 of a $14 trillion economy.

What I can do is prepare for what lies beyond the collapse.  History suggests a high probability of tyranny and war.  There's an excellent chance that our heavily armed and militarized police will become local warlords.

But we have tools and knowledge that can lead us to a better path.  So I study free market economics, and I make a pest of myself to whomever will listen to me.  I go on and on about gold, markets, preps, free society, etc.

After the Wiemar collapse, the Germans voted for Hitler.  They supported him and followed his lead.  I don't want to make the same mistake.  I want there to be enough well informed people who can see the danger and oppose the inevitable tyrants who will attempt to seize power.  So I study and prepare, not just to live through the collapse, but in hope of prospering in a free and peaceful society that follows.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on June 30, 2011, 05:01:56 pm
G>  Point taken J...

Tks, Gooch


S> There's an excellent chance that our heavily armed and militarized police will
become local warlords.

Silver is hitting bull's eye most any time.  This comes out in any city or town
problems.  If you look into Tammany Hall you'll see a lot of local police control.
But also central is money, paper, gold, or "favors".  As the dollar fades, we'll
see more local currencies and if the $ dies, many, many more of them.  All
centered around the local govt (and its local police) or the "new" govt ( and its
"new" local police).  Without money, money that is tracked, thus both taxable
and owned/controlled by the govt, the police don't get paid, etc.

A big, big thing is to get the "free" money (gold & silver coin) going now before
any large collapse or large inflation.  Consider all the infrastructure in the current
money biz-- banks, teller machines, checks, check clearing, money 'grams, etc--
and all of that will become important for all future money substitutes.  I'll bet
local govts manage it (hiring local banksters to do it for a %-take of the action)
before freedomistas can put together silver networks-- new and untried.

That's something to consider for the entrepreneurs out there.  In a degrading social
network, local supplies and delivery take over.  If there is not enough gold and silver
movement to cover business, paper will compete and maybe win.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 01:56:35 pm
Bernanke speaks, gold leaps.  Gold is over $1580 as I write, after closing at $1567 yesterday.

Bernanke was testilying before the House Financial Services Committee earlier this morning. He said, "The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support."

Translation: he can't wait to start creating still more money from nothing.

QE3 was never in doubt.  You heard it here first.  Hyperinflation is our fate.

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on July 13, 2011, 02:24:36 pm
Silver - While slicing squash for dehydrating I saw this and thought of you:

Ben Believes Gold Only Has Value Due To Tradition (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ben-believes-golds-only-value-due-tradition)

While the headline is not exactly what was said by Bernanke, it does point out a fundamental problem with his thought process. The only "real money" is something that someone is willing to accept in exchange for a needed product.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on July 13, 2011, 02:59:31 pm
Be careful what you wish for.

I don't look forward to the collapse.  I've prepared for it but that doesn't mean I welcome it.

The problem is that if it continues as is - we can expect nothing but slavery and despair for our children and grandchildren and beyond.

Generations now have deliberately shrugged off their responsibility and not “raised the black flag” and done what is absolutely necessary to fix the problem.

Get your hands dirty now or we all die knowing our genetics will have to do more and harder, nasty work or live in the muck in perpetuity.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 04:52:19 pm
Silver - While slicing squash for dehydrating I saw this and thought of you:

Ben Believes Gold Only Has Value Due To Tradition (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ben-believes-golds-only-value-due-tradition)

While the headline is not exactly what was said by Bernanke, it does point out a fundamental problem with his thought process. The only "real money" is something that someone is willing to accept in exchange for a needed product.

There is scant evidence that he thinks.  He's intelligent enough, but mostly he acts as a sock puppet for his masters.  No thought required.

I watched the video of Ron Paul grilling him on gold (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/91203.html).  The BenBernank (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k) looked like he'd just crapped himself when he mouthed that pathetic lie, and Ron Paul laughed in his face.  It was the most uncomfortable I've ever seen the Benbernank.  Good for Ron Paul for interrupting this dissembling asshole.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 05:01:12 pm
Be careful what you wish for.

I don't look forward to the collapse.  I've prepared for it but that doesn't mean I welcome it.

The problem is that if it continues as is - we can expect nothing but slavery and despair for our children and grandchildren and beyond.

Generations now have deliberately shrugged off their responsibility and not “raised the black flag” and done what is absolutely necessary to fix the problem.

Get your hands dirty now or we all die knowing our genetics will have to do more and harder, nasty work or live in the muck in perpetuity.

We're slaves now, and while I don't despair, I admit to a certain loss of optimism of late.

No need to invoke the kids.  Any argument that relies on "for the children" should provoke rambunctious skepticism.

If you think "raising the black flag" is the solution, by all means raise it.  Knock yourself out.  Let us know how it works out.

I won't use violence to advance my personal goals.  We live in a world infested by people who do so, but I won't stoop to that level of depravity.  There is no way to get to a world of freedom and peace by using coercion and violence.  All that will do is spill a lot of blood, destroy a lot of property, and perhaps raise a new set of tyrants.  No thanks.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 05:22:21 pm
Some sobering statistics from Bill Bonner, in today's "Daily Reckoning."

Quote
The crisis that began in ’07 is just a
flashpoint...just part of a huge turnaround that has been underway
for years.

Guess how much the Italian economy has grown in the last 10 years?

Zero.

Guess how much net average wages in France have gone up since 1975?

Zero.

Guess how many net new employees the Japanese have added to the
workforce in the last 20 years?

Zero.

Guess how many new jobs the US economy has created in the last 10
years?

Zero.

Guess how much the average hourly wage in the US has gone up since
1975?

Zero.

Guess how much the real, private sector economy of the US has grown
in the last decade?

Zero.

Guess how much US housing – and household wealth – has increased
since the beginning of the 21st century?

Zero.

It seems almost unbelievable, because it contradicts everything we
thought we knew. Italy may be mismanaged. Greece may be a basket-
case, but the US was supposed to be the most dynamic, adaptable,
capitalistic, forward-looking, technology-absorbing, growth-oriented
economy the world has ever seen. How could it go nowhere for more
than a decade? How could an American’s labor not increase in value,
while the economy becomes more efficient and more productive?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on July 13, 2011, 05:42:12 pm
Be careful what you wish for.

I don't look forward to the collapse.  I've prepared for it but that doesn't mean I welcome it.

The problem is that if it continues as is - we can expect nothing but slavery and despair for our children and grandchildren and beyond.

Generations now have deliberately shrugged off their responsibility and not “raised the black flag” and done what is absolutely necessary to fix the problem.

Get your hands dirty now or we all die knowing our genetics will have to do more and harder, nasty work or live in the muck in perpetuity.

We're slaves now, and while I don't despair, I admit to a certain loss of optimism of late.

I learned a long time ago to always expect lazy, pathetic, ignorant and selfish from the typical human - I am seldom disappointed in my initial guess.

Quote
No need to invoke the kids.  Any argument that relies on "for the children" should provoke rambunctious skepticism.

I am not arguing it “for the children” that is not the point - I am predicting with a fair deal of possible accuratcy based on history as to what will happen when we decide AGAIN (generation after generation) to choose inaction, mediocrity and laziness in face of the developing oligarchy.

Quote
If you think "raising the black flag" is the solution, by all means raise it.  Knock yourself out.  Let us know how it works out.

Nice try at belittling the concept, we know what happens with individual actions.

Quote
I won't use violence to advance my personal goals.  We live in a world infested by people who do so, but I won't stoop to that level of depravity. 

It will visit you just the same.

Quote
There is no way to get to a world of freedom and peace by using coercion and violence.

On that clearly we do, have and will disagree - it is what it is, and why yet again I can only have some sympathy with the anarchist/ZAP positions.

Quote
All that will do is spill a lot of blood, destroy a lot of property, and perhaps raise a new set of tyrants.  No thanks.

Keeping it as it is will guarantee slavery, tyrants, poverty, and massive bloodshed - it will visit us or following generations, fix it now or choose not to - choose the latter and it will be only worse, harder, and less likely to make any real impact.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 13, 2011, 07:54:02 pm
Quote
If you think "raising the black flag" is the solution, by all means raise it.  Knock yourself out.  Let us know how it works out.
Nice try at belittling the concept, we know what happens with individual actions.

All hat and no cattle.  At least I walk my talk.

You get the "Ignore"  button.  I don't bother with folks whose gain is less than 1.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on July 13, 2011, 09:08:41 pm
Quote
If you think "raising the black flag" is the solution, by all means raise it.  Knock yourself out.  Let us know how it works out.
Nice try at belittling the concept, we know what happens with individual actions.

All hat and no cattle.  At least I walk my talk.

You get the "Ignore"  button.  I don't bother with folks whose gain is less than 1.


Perfect - worthless - no one can count an idea or value without exploration - you Silver get the cowardly, obtuse, and uselessly stubborn ribbon for the day. But then again what would we expect from someone with pathetically low level of reading comprehension. Got nothing - so its all “ignore” enjoy  :thebirdman:

Easy to walk the talk if if does nothing nor fixes anything, and easy to insult with “I walk the talk” and “you are substance-less” but you constantly prove that you are at best a pathetic cut and past artist. And of course know know nothing of almost all of us.

My next packing of bulk foods will be dedicated to the new category of “empty useless silver” but then I guess I’m just not walking the talk.

Enjoy the decline - "We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality." - Ayn Rand - a great quote, something that Rand herself was caught in many times due to her own narcissistic delusions - a great quote non-the-less.

I never use the “ignore” button, because even the completely useless and delusional like this can have a good idea from time to time (hell, even a broken clock - or crank - can be correct twice a day).
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on July 15, 2011, 05:56:34 pm

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence
clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of
hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
                                     --H.L. Mencken

If we don't do x, surely y will happen-- count on it.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 18, 2011, 11:36:34 am
John Williams at shadowstats.com published this figure over the weekend.

Ignore the absurd numbers on the vertical axis; you'd be closer to the truth to multiply them by 10.
Look at the trend since QE2 was announced in Oct. 2010.  This is the so-called "core" inflation.  It's the
one the feds like because it ignores fuel and food, and is therefore lower.

We know now that the fed is ready to start QE3 at any time.  Gold's up over $1600 as I post this.  The death of the dollar is at hand; it's entirely possible it won't survive a full century of federal reserve abuse and debasement.

Peace,

Silver
(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/2011/677/core_inflation_QE2.png)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on July 18, 2011, 09:37:21 pm
I forget what the definition of insanity is - wasn't it something like repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results?

Holder Launches Witch Hunt Against Biased Banks (http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=577794&p=1)
Quote
In what could be a repeat of the easy-lending cycle that led to the housing crisis, the Justice Department has asked several banks to relax their mortgage underwriting standards and approve loans for minorities with poor credit as part of a new crackdown on alleged discrimination, according to court documents reviewed by IBD.
Quote
In several cases, the government has ordered bank defendants to post in all their branches and marketing materials a notice informing minority customers that they cannot be turned down for credit because they receive public aid, such as unemployment benefits, welfare payments or food stamps.
Quote
Bank lawyers contend the prosecutors are trying to hide the shaky legal grounds on which the cases are built. "It's horrible what they're doing at the civil rights division," said Reginald Brown, a partner at Wilmer Hale in Washington, who has represented banks in connection to recent race-bias investigations. "They don't have any proof, just theories."

Quote
He added, "They want you to sign something saying you agree, under the condition of any settlement with them, that you won't disclose what their theories were. That's because their theories are loopy and wouldn't stand the light of day."

One such theory — "disparate impact" — holds that merely a difference in loan application outcomes is enough to prove racial discrimination — even if no intent exists on the part of loan officers to contrast based on the color of applicants, and even legitimate business factors — such as credit scores and down payments — help explain disparities in loan outcomes between white and black applicants.
Quote

"We will require lenders to invest in the community that they've harmed."

I'd rant - however the concept of redoing what was proven to cause an issue (i.e. bubble bursting) by repeating is just....unrantable at this point.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on July 18, 2011, 09:45:17 pm
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

And, Silver, $40 the ounce for the cheaper PM.


Of course, lead is only 2 cents the ounce.  Although, proper packaging can cost a bit more.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 22, 2011, 08:36:33 am
The earnings of the S&P 500 have been in severe decline for 10 years, and are presently at 1975 levels - when the earnings are measured in ounces of gold.  Measured in dollars, they are sky-high.

(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110722.gif)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on July 22, 2011, 10:28:19 am
The earnings of the S&P 500 have been in severe decline for 10 years, and are presently at 1975 levels - when the earnings are measured in ounces of gold.  Measured in dollars, they are sky-high.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110722.gif
What that chart really represents is the decline of the dollar.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Junker on July 22, 2011, 05:07:12 pm
*Much* more than that, I'd say.   And without even using any imagination.
From the good Mr. van der Bilt of New Amsterdam days to the young Irish boy
playing his toy railroads, it can say much more than any plot of money mangled
by paper.  But as well, for some, it means nothing-- nothing at all.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 04, 2011, 03:03:12 pm
Wall St slide continues; Dow plunges 500 points (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/04/business/main20088089.shtml)

Quote
The stock market is in the midst of its biggest retreat since the financial crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged as many as 507 points Thursday afternoon. It is now down more than 1,200 points since July 21.Thursday's losses turned the blue-chip stock index negative for the year.

How unexpected.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on August 04, 2011, 03:28:29 pm
Wall St slide continues; Dow plunges 500 points (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/04/business/main20088089.shtml)

Quote
The stock market is in the midst of its biggest retreat since the financial crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged as many as 507 points Thursday afternoon. It is now down more than 1,200 points since July 21.Thursday's losses turned the blue-chip stock index negative for the year.

How unexpected.

Also gold hit a high of $1,680 / oz.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 04, 2011, 03:30:02 pm
Also gold hit a high of $1,680 / oz.
Bear


Missed that, saw it was at $1667 or so. Stupid question here - why the plunge on Oil ?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 04, 2011, 04:06:16 pm
It's not a stupid question at all.

The truth is no one really knows; the oil market is huge, and many individual players each have their own reasons.  Their preferences and actions are as diverse as those of TMMers discussing ammo vs gold.

But of course there is a large industry that tells us every day exactly why the stock markets, gold markets, gas markets etc. moved the way they did.  What a great job.  You can never be wrong, because there's no way to check.

Here are a few probable or at least plausible reasons oil would sell off when the stock market tanks:

- Stock prices reflect beliefs about the future of the economy, and of publicly traded firms to make money.  If the market thinks the firms aren't going to do so well, it follows that many of them, particularly transport, mining, and manufacturing, will need less energy.  Lower demand means lower price.

-Many oil contracts are futures, purchased with margin.  Same with stocks - many bought with 50% down and the rest borrowed. When the price declines, people get margin calls.  They have to raise cash or their brokers will close their positions - at a loss.  So they sell anything that is in the  money.  It's not unusual to see heavy selling pressure in gold stocks when the market tanks, even if the price of gold itself is going up.  People take profits wherever they can find them to cover their margin requirements.

There are 2, others can think of many more.  The truth is that there are as many reasons as there are buyers and sellers.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 04, 2011, 04:17:56 pm
Thanks! I guess then my confusion this morning when Energies across the board were dipping could possibly have been the reallocation or individual margin calls.....or not  :sunny:.

Thankfully we are not "Stock Dependent" so this "Correction" will not immediately affect our Portfolio. (wow - that sounded sort of high class)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 04, 2011, 08:19:00 pm
There's nothing "high class" about having a portfolio.  Free men save.  Smart people diversify their savings. That's all a portfolio is: a diversified basket of savings.

Most of us start by saving beans and bullets, but sooner or later you save money, since money provides so much flexibility to face an uncertain future.  Since saving is a lifelong habit of free people, if you live long enough, you save enough money that it makes sense to think about ways to spread it out.  Some goes to investments, some to rainy day highly liquid assets, some may go to speculation, some to support family or dear causes.  But you save, and if you are smart, you diversify to spread the risks and rewards.

Class is a concept governments use to divide people, the better to set them against one another and conquer them.  There is no class, there are only free people living their lives, and slaves doing as they are told.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on August 04, 2011, 10:12:52 pm
Class is a concept governments use to divide people, the better to set them against one another and conquer them.  There is no class, there are only free people living their lives, and slaves doing as they are told.

Absolutely! That's exactly the campaign Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez implemented...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 05, 2011, 08:50:59 pm
S&P Downgrades U.S. Debt for First Time  (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903366504576490841235575386.html)

Quote
S&P removed for the first time the triple-A rating the U.S. has held for 70 years, saying the budget deal recently brokered in Washington didn't do enough to address the gloomy long-term picture for America's finances. It downgraded U.S. debt to AA+, a score that ranks below Liechtenstein and on par with Belgium and New Zealand.

The unprecedented move came after several hours of high-stakes drama. It began in the morning, when word leaked that a downgrade was imminent and stocks tumbled sharply. Around 1:30 p.m., S&P officials notified the Treasury Department they planned to downgrade U.S. debt, and presented the government with their findings. But Treasury officials noticed a $2 trillion error in S&P's math that delayed an announcement for several hours. S&P officials decided to move ahead anyway, and after 8 p.m. they made their downgrade official.

Whats a few trillion here or there............
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 18, 2011, 08:37:53 am
Whimper time?

NYSE invokes Rule 48, braces for volatile open (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-wall-street-20110818,0,5113097.story)

Quote
The New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Amex Cash Markets on Thursday invoked a rule to smooth trading at the market open, as futures pointed to a sharp drop in the major indexes, tracking steep declines across world markets and pushing gold to a new record.

Rule 48 allows the exchange to suspend price indications that help determine the floor price at the open during regular sessions. Bypassing the requirement helps speed the beginning of trading.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on August 18, 2011, 09:26:13 am
Whimper time?

NYSE invokes Rule 48, braces for volatile open (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-wall-street-20110818,0,5113097.story)

Quote
The New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Amex Cash Markets on Thursday invoked a rule to smooth trading at the market open, as futures pointed to a sharp drop in the major indexes, tracking steep declines across world markets and pushing gold to a new record.

Rule 48 allows the exchange to suspend price indications that help determine the floor price at the open during regular sessions. Bypassing the requirement helps speed the beginning of trading.

an hour and twenty minutes after the open of trading, the djia is down >460 points, about 4%.

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 18, 2011, 09:29:38 am
I'm smiling.  Most of my "stock" shares are in CEF and GTU, whose shares trade on the basis of gold and silver stored safely in Canadian bank vaults.  As of last night CEF shares were trading within 0.1% of the value of the metal.  At times, the shares trade at a premium, at other times at a slight discount.  I buy when the premium is low or negative.  

I listen politely when colleagues grouse about their 401(k) plans dropping.  Mine has gone up very nicely since 2003, when I started moving everything into precious metals.  No one likes to hear "I told you so," so mostly I just listen and smile.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on August 18, 2011, 03:58:39 pm
We cannot cash out DH's 401(k) until he quits his job. When I used to have my 401(k), and with DH's current plan we cannot invest in precious metals. We buy metals when we can with our own money. Nonetheless, I am one PO'ed woman at DC for what those bastards have done - and continue to do!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on August 18, 2011, 09:05:07 pm
We cannot cash out DH's 401(k) until he quits his job. When I used to have my 401(k), and with DH's current plan we cannot invest in precious metals. We buy metals when we can with our own money. Nonetheless, I am one PO'ed woman at DC for what those bastards have done - and continue to do!

I am asking because I know next to nothing about 401's of any stripe and even less about the other kinds of organized savings programs.

My Question:
Is it possible to "roll-over" your DH's account to an IRA or some other Big Gov recognized version without too much damage?
Then you could remove some of it and pay the penalty for early withdrawal. You would at least have access to some of it.

Right?

Maybe someone who knows about these things can offer an explanation and possibly an option that will be helpful to you. (?)



Disclaimer:
My account is a plain jane savings account at a bank which I can access at any time [with a limit of three transactions -of any size- per month] and in which I keep to the low four digits so as to not lose "everything" if they lock up the banks.


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on August 19, 2011, 06:39:29 am
You can nearly always roll over 401(k) plans to self-directed IRAs - after you leave the employer.  So long as Moonbeam's DH keeps his job (presumably a good thing) he's stuck with whatever options the employers offer.  Since the fedgov and stategov hammer employers mercilessly if they let employees invest in atypical forms, most employers are coerced into offering a dog's breakfast of poor-performing mutual funds, low-interest government bonds, etc.

I didn't mean to sound flippant or smug.  I'm quite aware that many people are locked in even when they know what is happening.  My point is that not everyone gets burned when the market tanks.  People with gold and silver will come out of this mess rather well, especially compared to those that don't.

They will be coming after the 401(k)s and IRAs soon.  There's too much money there, and thieves always go where the money is.  So physical metal, bought with your own money and held in you own hand, is the better bet.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on August 22, 2011, 11:02:27 am
John Williams at shadowstats.com published this figure over the weekend.

Ignore the absurd numbers on the vertical axis; you'd be closer to the truth to multiply them by 10.
Look at the trend since QE2 was announced in Oct. 2010.  This is the so-called "core" inflation.  It's the
one the feds like because it ignores fuel and food, and is therefore lower.

We know now that the fed is ready to start QE3 at any time.  Gold's up over $1600 as I post this.  The death of the dollar is at hand; it's entirely possible it won't survive a full century of federal reserve abuse and debasement.

Peace,

Silver
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/2011/677/core_inflation_QE2.png

Global Stocks Climb on Expectations for Fed Stimulus;
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/u-s-index-futures-fall-oil-drops-on-growth-concern-correct-.html) (QE3)

Quote
“Eyes are clearly pointing to Bernanke’s speech on Friday,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages $54 billion, said in a telephone interview. “People are of the belief that there’s an increasing likelihood of a new quantitative easing program. We hold no expectation that we’re going to see that. The hurdle remains pretty high. I’m a little concerned that if get some rally on that expectation and it doesn’t come through that the equity market would be set for a decline.”

Gold is @ $1890
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on August 22, 2011, 02:55:33 pm
And silver is at $43.68 at 3:39 pm EST
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on August 22, 2011, 11:03:00 pm
Time to Stop wearing my silver rings.
[One with a turquoise stone and the other is a Celtic design]

I wouldn't want to tempt someone past the limit of their restraint.

Gads I can't imagine what life must be like in the "meat traps".[major cities]

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on August 24, 2011, 05:16:03 am
I like that Gooch.  Meat Trap=city.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Ajax76 on August 24, 2011, 05:14:35 pm
You can nearly always roll over 401(k) plans to self-directed IRAs - after you leave the employer.  So long as Moonbeam's DH keeps his job (presumably a good thing) he's stuck with whatever options the employers offer.  Since the fedgov and stategov hammer employers mercilessly if they let employees invest in atypical forms, most employers are coerced into offering a dog's breakfast of poor-performing mutual funds, low-interest government bonds, etc.

I didn't mean to sound flippant or smug.  I'm quite aware that many people are locked in even when they know what is happening.  My point is that not everyone gets burned when the market tanks.  People with gold and silver will come out of this mess rather well, especially compared to those that don't.

They will be coming after the 401(k)s and IRAs soon.  There's too much money there, and thieves always go where the money is.  So physical metal, bought with your own money and held in you own hand, is the better bet.

Peace,

Silver

Agreed.  Something I did (and it may not be for everyone), is take out the maximum loan allowed on my 401k.  They let me take half of it as a loan to myself, and my employer then docks my paycheck to return the money to the 401k over a 5 year period (can be a 15-year loan, if used for home-buying).  There are a few pitfalls, though.  First, if you end your employment for any reason, the entire loan comes due.  Whatever outstanding portion remaining unpaid after a certain time period (30 days, I think) from your leave of employ, is then considered a withdrawal (complete with tax burden and early withdrawal penalty).  Also, I've heard of some employers freezing contributions to your plan with a loan outstanding (and for hardship withdrawals, as well).  You'll also want to make sure you aren't going to be charged a one-time processing fee, or anything like that (it may still be worth doing if there is a fee, you'll have to decide that for yourself).

My thinking was this:
1.  Can I afford the extra hit to my paycheck?  Barely, was my answer.  And even if I couldn't, I'd still rather have half of my 401k fund stuffed in my pillow, that I don't use for anything but paying back the loan.  That half is out of the reach of Big Brother, or at least a little further away.
2.  If the market tanks like I think it will, getting half my money out of there beforehand is basically profit-taking.  Granted, if the market keeps going up, I'll have made a losing trade.  But I feel MUCH safer, with the cash in hand.
3.  All the investment sites trumpet the 401k plan, because "in bad times you are buying cheap".  Well, in my situation, this is now greatly magnified.  If the market takes a monstrous hit, I'm going to be buying back in for a lot more than I normally would, each paycheck.  And I'll have missed the initial drop with half my money. 
4.  If I lose my job, for whatever reason, I have enough metals, other savings, etc. that I can use to pay back the loan on the spot. 

I couldn't see much of a downside to this, for me.  Of course, as with everything, you have to do your own research.  I may have missed something that makes this a terrible idea.  And 401k loans vary depending on employer.  Either way, it's something to consider, if you want your money out, without "really taking it out". 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on August 24, 2011, 09:31:02 pm
You can nearly always roll over 401(k) plans to self-directed IRAs - after you leave the employer.  So long as Moonbeam's DH keeps his job (presumably a good thing) he's stuck with whatever options the employers offer.  Since the fedgov and stategov hammer employers mercilessly if they let employees invest in atypical forms, most employers are coerced into offering a dog's breakfast of poor-performing mutual funds, low-interest government bonds, etc.

I didn't mean to sound flippant or smug.  I'm quite aware that many people are locked in even when they know what is happening.  My point is that not everyone gets burned when the market tanks.  People with gold and silver will come out of this mess rather well, especially compared to those that don't.

They will be coming after the 401(k)s and IRAs soon.  There's too much money there, and thieves always go where the money is.  So physical metal, bought with your own money and held in you own hand, is the better bet.

Peace,

Silver

Agreed.  Something I did (and it may not be for everyone), is take out the maximum loan allowed on my 401k.  They let me take half of it as a loan to myself, and my employer then docks my paycheck to return the money to the 401k over a 5 year period (can be a 15-year loan, if used for home-buying).  There are a few pitfalls, though.  First, if you end your employment for any reason, the entire loan comes due.  Whatever outstanding portion remaining unpaid after a certain time period (30 days, I think) from your leave of employ, is then considered a withdrawal (complete with tax burden and early withdrawal penalty).  Also, I've heard of some employers freezing contributions to your plan with a loan outstanding (and for hardship withdrawals, as well).  You'll also want to make sure you aren't going to be charged a one-time processing fee, or anything like that (it may still be worth doing if there is a fee, you'll have to decide that for yourself).

My thinking was this:
1.  Can I afford the extra hit to my paycheck?  Barely, was my answer.  And even if I couldn't, I'd still rather have half of my 401k fund stuffed in my pillow, that I don't use for anything but paying back the loan.  That half is out of the reach of Big Brother, or at least a little further away.
2.  If the market tanks like I think it will, getting half my money out of there beforehand is basically profit-taking.  Granted, if the market keeps going up, I'll have made a losing trade.  But I feel MUCH safer, with the cash in hand.
3.  All the investment sites trumpet the 401k plan, because "in bad times you are buying cheap".  Well, in my situation, this is now greatly magnified.  If the market takes a monstrous hit, I'm going to be buying back in for a lot more than I normally would, each paycheck.  And I'll have missed the initial drop with half my money. 
4.  If I lose my job, for whatever reason, I have enough metals, other savings, etc. that I can use to pay back the loan on the spot. 

I couldn't see much of a downside to this, for me.  Of course, as with everything, you have to do your own research.  I may have missed something that makes this a terrible idea.  And 401k loans vary depending on employer.  Either way, it's something to consider, if you want your money out, without "really taking it out". 

This move you outline is a risk - I think that it is no more or no less of a risk than the original placement...

I happen to agree with your position, but we could be wrong, predicting the future is just a guess and of course your outlined path is a risk.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Ajax76 on August 25, 2011, 12:30:48 pm
This move you outline is a risk - I think that it is no more or no less of a risk than the original placement...

I happen to agree with your position, but we could be wrong, predicting the future is just a guess and of course your outlined path is a risk.

Yep.  I won't deny that one bit.  But then, everything is a risk.  Leaving your money in a 401k is a risk.  Taking it out is a risk.  Getting in your car and driving to work is a risk.  You have to measure everything you do and pare it down to an acceptable risk level.

The real danger in a 401k loan comes from spending the money and not being able to pay the loan back if you get fired.  I don't plan on spending the money.  Some I've hidden away in cash, some I've purchased metals with, and some is sitting in my checking account.  While the metals could lose value, I don't think they'll ever be worthless.  I could liquidate those if need be, I'd just need to come up with the value the metals depreciated from elsewhere (which I should have no problem doing).  I suppose my secret stashes could be uncovered and stolen, but I find that very unlikely.

It's true, I could very well be wrong about the direction the market is headed (it's happened often enough in the past).  QE3 could be announced tomorrow and stocks will soar, and I'll kick myself for being such an idiot.  But, if things go to crap, having that loan money in hand might make a huge difference to me and my family.  I'd rather be kicking myself over some lost percentage points on my 401k return, while driving to my cushy job, than crying about how nice that extra money would have been while my family is scrambling to survive.  Plus, there is no penalty for paying back the loan ahead of schedule.  If, at any point, my outlook on things change, I can simply unstash my money and repay the loan.

In the end, it was the same debate I have with myself, between physical metals and gold/silver ETFs.  There is a great deal of added value in having the metals in your hand.  If you don't have access to it, you don't really own it.  Dollars are no different, in that regard.  I wanted more of my dollars in my hand.  To me, that was worth the risk of getting stuck paying taxes and early withdrawal penalty on that money (though that risk is very small, for me), and/or losing out on some potential 401k earnings.  It may not be worth it to someone else.  If I were living paycheck to paycheck, or if I were going to use the money in a way that I wouldn't be able to pay the loan off at any given moment, then I'd have to think long and hard about doing this.  But for my situation, I don't find it to be overly risky.  I view it as a way to leverage my emergency cash supply during turbulent times (and divesting before a market downturn, to boot).  If the time comes when I need that money, the taxes and early withdrawal penalty will have long since stopped being a consideration.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on August 25, 2011, 01:06:10 pm
Our hope is to take the "retirement" money after he leaves his current employer (taking a hit with the fees & penalities). We don't plan to contribute to any "retirement" plans at his new job...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on August 25, 2011, 03:51:29 pm
Our hope is to take the "retirement" money after he leaves his current employer (taking a hit with the fees & penalities). We don't plan to contribute to any "retirement" plans at his new job...

When we were getting our financial stuff together before buying this place,
I was concerned that the money in my 401k might disappear or become
worthless in the near future. What I did was to borrow half and use the
money to pay off credit cards and other debts. I'd rather pay myself 5%
than +13% to the credit card companies.

I also stopped contributing to the 401k plan. The funny part is, that
under the rules, my loan payment is considered contributing, so my
employer kicks in an additional 2%.

That just strikes me as funny as hell. :laugh:

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on August 26, 2011, 07:16:45 am
That is funny Bear.  A wee bit satisfying as well!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: clarence on September 01, 2011, 03:49:58 am
the great salvation army raid (http://dixiecritter.blogspot.com/2011/08/great-salvation-army-raid.html)

i've seen evidence of this kind of activity before. in fact, several of the local thrift stores have signs in the window advising against leaving donations outside.

clarence
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on September 01, 2011, 07:47:08 am
the great salvation army raid (http://dixiecritter.blogspot.com/2011/08/great-salvation-army-raid.html)

i've seen evidence of this kind of activity before. in fact, several of the local thrift stores have signs in the window advising against leaving donations outside.

clarence

Our local "Twice Nice" even has a sign out saying "These items are not free."
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on October 06, 2011, 10:12:08 pm
SILVER -  What happens to the wealth if the economy collapses? What happens to the wealthy who do not own PM's?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on October 06, 2011, 11:19:51 pm
"The Wealthy" have, hold and cherish that which they think preserves their wealth. They hire "experts" with wonderful track records to advise and invest their wealth in various "safe" places.  They own a million shares of a buggy-whip manufacturing company when the automobile takes over transportation.  They own a distillery when prohibition outlaws alcohol sale.  They own several million pieces of paper saying "One US Dollar" while The Fed prints dumps a trainload of identical pieces of paper on the street in front of their house.

When the economy collapses, the ignorant, complacent wealthy are whisked into poverty. They have no experience, knowledge or tools for this situation.  Think "Gone With The Wind" at the end of the movie. People who enter the collapse broke and used to being broke are usually better off.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on October 06, 2011, 11:54:30 pm
People who enter the collapse broke and used to being broke are usually better off.

I guess I’ll be in good shape then...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 07, 2011, 12:58:37 am
People who enter the collapse broke and used to being broke are usually better off.

I guess I’ll be in good shape then...

You took the words right out of my mouth. MP


I sure hope you're right SMS. I surely do.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Hutch on October 07, 2011, 01:47:14 am
Our hope is to take the "retirement" money after he leaves his current employer (taking a hit with the fees & penalities). We don't plan to contribute to any "retirement" plans at his new job

I'm not sure you would qualify...(age)...but a 72T withdrawal would eliminate the fees and penalties:

http://www.required-minimum-distribution.com/72t-distributions.html

Required Minimum Distribution Rules-72t

The IRS permits early retirees to access their retirement funds prior to age 50 1/2 without penalty as long as they take distributions under a plan of substantially equally periodic payments (rule 72t). Once started, these payments must continue for the longer of 5 years of their attainment of age 59 1/2. Therefore, once a 72t distribution plan is started, these become required mandatory distributions subject to the early withdrawal penalty if ceased.


HTH,

Hutch
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on October 07, 2011, 10:43:58 am
HUTCH - I'm older than the youngest member on here, but I'm younger than the oldest member on here  :laugh:  Thanks for the information, unfortunately it would not apply to us :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jebur27 on October 07, 2011, 05:04:27 pm
Several years ago, the Mrs. & I closed our IRA's (taking the tax hit) paid off the house & bought PMs.  We have never regretted it. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 10, 2011, 11:12:50 am
SILVER -  What happens to the wealth if the economy collapses? What happens to the wealthy who do not own PM's?

We all get to find out who has real wealth, and who does not.  Many who consider themselves wealthy have very little real wealth.  Most everything they have is based on digital bits in various files and records.

In past hyperinflations and economic collapses, people who owned real, tangible assets generally did very, very well.  That includes precious metals, land, capital equipment, factories, stores of commodities.

Much of what modern Americans consider wealth is nothing more or less than claims on various chunks of debt.  Those dollars earned and then deposited in a bank were spent; loaned to someone you never met, whose ability to re-pay wasn't checked.  When they don't repay, the fedgov just prints some more dollars and gives them to the bank.  So the depositors get their dollars back, each one worth less than what they put in.  Bank accounts, stock accounts, pension plans, social security checks, medicare, all are claims on debts and promises.  Few have any assets.  Those that do generally have far fewer assets than debts.

I know some people near me.  They appear wealthy.  They have a large house in an expensive neighborhood.  They have two nice, fairly new cars.  They have a large boat, and are building a second house.

They also have about two thousand dollars in the bank.  They live from (large) paycheck to paycheck.  They have no stock of food, hate guns, and think people who buy precious metals are crazy.  They brag to me about the "equity" in their home, which is what they call the huge inflation in the price caused by the feds jamming so much cash into the housing market.   They are paying down the mortgage as slowly as possible, re-financing as the rates drop lower, re-setting the 30-year clock each time.

When the crash comes, many people who think they are wealthy will find that the value of digital bits can, and does, go to zero.  People who have genuine, tangible savings and assets will do very well. There will be tremendous bargains and opportunities available to those with assets and real capital.

Today's money is nothing more than a consensual mass illusion.  The consensus is starting to fail.  Eventually the illusion will be all too apparent.  Much of what is today considered wealth will vanish along with the illusion.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on October 10, 2011, 12:31:50 pm
If there is a crash, and I am convinced by the evidence (as are many of you) that it is inevitable.

If you cannot touch “it” likely you will not find anything there. As stated the “debt dollar” is a shell game - a con, fiat currency, the Fed, and fractional reserve are, have been and will stay a massive FRAUD.

If you give a shit at all when it does come... well lets hope there are enough out there with some intestinal fortitude to include all of the bankers in with the political whores with the hemp, tar and feathers.

If past generations are any indication there is little intestinal fortitude for this in the country because at least three generations have been in love with socialism and FDR style “entitlements” and of course the average american is a hopeless TV addicted statist lemming.

The great winnowing may spell a step backwards away from freedom - who knows.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on October 10, 2011, 03:44:51 pm
...There will be tremendous bargains and opportunities available to those with assets and real capital.

I assume "real" means precious metals, land or maybe something else to barter/bargain with? Obviously the FRN's will be useless to purchase any of those bargains. Those that have 401(k), savings or retirement plans will no longer have those so-called assets available.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on October 10, 2011, 03:59:35 pm
...There will be tremendous bargains and opportunities available to those with assets and real capital.

I assume "real" means precious metals, land or maybe something else to barter/bargain with? Obviously the FRN's will be useless to purchase any of those bargains. Those that have 401(k), savings or retirement plans will no longer have those so-called assets available.

Exactly right Moonbeam

"Real", in this case, means tangible. [physically touchable]

An over large pile of already split firewood is a tangible ["real"] asset.
As would be canned goods, ammo, tools, etc, etc, etc.
IF it is valued by the person involved in the transaction silver and gold would also be "real" assets.

It is my personal opinion that silver and gold will be the highest valued assets BUT only later on after the initial "winnowing" is completed and folks have pretty much settled into an open barter system using their own foodstocks and tangible assets as trade items.

I am not able to afford gold so I am saving silver coins. YMMV
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on October 10, 2011, 04:55:35 pm
(http://images4.cpcache.com/product/561525014v3_240x240_Front.jpg)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 10, 2011, 06:28:51 pm
...There will be tremendous bargains and opportunities available to those with assets and real capital.

I assume "real" means precious metals, land or maybe something else to barter/bargain with? Obviously the FRN's will be useless to purchase any of those bargains. Those that have 401(k), savings or retirement plans will no longer have those so-called assets available.

Yes, by "real" I mean "private property that you own."  You don't own the "money" in a 401(k); it's an account based on promises by the government that they won't steal quite so much of it if you jump through certain hoops.  For now.  As long is they find it convenient.  Same goes for a saving account; you gave your money to the bank, and they promise to give it back when you ask for it.  A bank account is a promise, not property.

If you have gold and silver in a real IRA (http://community.mises.org/silver/2011/09/23/real-ira-as-of-sept-22-2011/), that's real.  A self-directed IRA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Directed_IRA#Limited_liability_company_structured_IRA) can hold tangible assets.  As gooch says, if it's real, you can put your hands on it.  You at least have a chance of defending it against would-be thieves.  How do you defend a 401(k) or a savings account?

Real in this context is the difference between property and promises.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on October 11, 2011, 09:43:01 am
A lot of the donation boxes around here were changed over to steel over the last few years.   Somehow the wooden ones come up missing sides or tops.   One of the reasons I plan on being GONE, if the vultures are that agressive now, what are they gonna be when the day comes?   Or is it already here.   I am loving how my hard metal investments are working out, and I am just waiting to do some fast ones on the currency market as well............   I liked that tip about the Swiss Frncs changing their Pegging..........
Title: Fed to create 1 PetaFRN in 2013
Post by: Silver on December 03, 2012, 12:00:04 pm
This needs confirmation, but it rings all too true:

Fed To Commit To A Staggering $1 Trillion Of QE For 2013 (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/29_Fed_To_Commit_To_A_Staggering_$1_Trillion_Of_QE_For_2013.html)

There is no end to QE; there cannot be, until bankers and financiers get alarmed.  By then, it may be too late.

Quote
The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses
at an ever-acclerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as
additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon
the loan market. But it could not last forever even if inflation and
credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It would then encounter
the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of circulation
credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the
whole monetary system.

We're up to QE4 or more.  This is the "credit expansion progressing at an ever=accelerated pace."  Sooner or later price inflation will be noticed.  It's happening already, for those who have eyes to see and bills to pay, but the fact of price inflation is denied by presstitutes and their masters at every opportunity. 

For the creation of massive amounts of new credit benefits a small, select group of people: the ones who get access to the newly created credit first.  They get to spend it before prices rise in response.  All of us lose, so that the richest and most politically connected can win still more.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 03, 2012, 12:04:03 pm
When I started this thread more than 4 years ago, I wrote (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.msg242002#msg242002):

Quote
(S)ooner rather than later another "stimulus" will be required.  And another, and another.  Eventually, the increase will be continuous,...

Sometimes I hate being right.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on December 03, 2012, 12:39:14 pm
Of note: http://www.creators.com/conservative/thomas-sowell/fiscal-cliff-notes.html (http://www.creators.com/conservative/thomas-sowell/fiscal-cliff-notes.html) Fiscal Cliff Notes

Quote
All the political angst and moral melodrama about getting "the rich" to pay "their fair share" is part of a big charade. This is not about economics, it is about politics. Taxing "the rich" will produce a drop in the bucket when compared to the staggering and unprecedented deficits of the Obama administration.

This is an insult to our intelligence. The government doesn't "ask" anybody to pay anything. It orders you to pay the taxes they impose and you can go to prison if you don't.

Quote
Then there are all the fancy substitute words for plain old spending words like "stimulus" or "investing in the industries of the future."

The theory about "stimulus" is that government spending will stimulate private businesses and financial institutions to put more of their money into the economy, speeding up the recovery. But the fact that you call something a "stimulus" does not make it a stimulus.

Stimulus spending began during the Bush administration and has continued full blast during the Obama administration.

But the end result is that both businesses and financial institutions have had record amounts of their own money sitting idle. The rate of circulation of money slowed down. All this is the opposite of stimulus.

Quote
Using lofty words to obscure tawdry realities extends beyond the White House. Referring to the Federal Reserve System's creation of hundreds of billions of new dollars out of thin air as "quantitative easing" makes it seem as if this is some soothing and esoteric process, rather than amounting essentially to nothing more than printing more money.

Debasing the value of money by creating more of it is nothing new or esoteric. Irresponsible governments have done this, not just for centuries, but for thousands of years.

It is a way to take people's wealth from them without having to openly raise taxes. Inflation is the most universal tax of all.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 13, 2012, 12:28:51 pm
Karen DeCoster nails it, from the LRC blog:
(http://karendecoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/fed-reserve.png)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on December 13, 2012, 05:17:06 pm
Yup...Here comes QE4-ever. :deadhorse:

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on December 13, 2012, 05:23:34 pm
Yup...Here comes QE4-ever. :deadhorse:

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Well, there is usually an end to insanity... one way or another.

These folks seem to have figured out a way to perpetuate it  - but, of course, we all know that nothing is forever.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on December 14, 2012, 08:29:48 am
It is amazing what people swallow now days.  "But the Fed says inflation is at (insert single digit)percent." and I say "Wake up and look around.  What is the usual price of hamburger or chicken in the supermarket?  (15$ for the standard "Family pack")  What was it 4 years ago? (10$)  Can you do the math?  That is 10% or more in inflation, you are not getting more for your dollar, so the value of the dollar has dropped, not the value of the goods......"  Some of them wake up, other say "Now you are lying to me with statistics" other are "Well what can I do about it?".........<sigh>  The ones that wake up a bit I figure might have a chance, the guys who can't keep up with middle school math I mark as bullet catchers, and the what can I do's I mark as sheep........

Those who vote for a living, those members of the public who have figured out they can vote themselves a free life, have become large enough a group to reelect an obvious failure of a leader because he hands out shinies...........  Long economic slide planning has begun with luck I will have some cottage industry/trade to barter with.  That is why I am watching a lot of TED talks about developing areas of the world and about how argentina recovered.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on December 22, 2012, 10:00:20 am

President resigns after riots leave 22 dead in Argentina :

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-91169/President-resigns-riots-leave-22-dead-Argentina.html#ixzz2FnTQUwTY  (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-91169/President-resigns-riots-leave-22-dead-Argentina.html#ixzz2FnTQUwTY)

Quote
President Fernando De la Rua resigned and fled the government palace in a helicopter, driven from office by a devastating economic crisis and days of rioting that left 22 people dead and homes and supermarkets across Argentina ransacked.
De la Rua's sudden downfall yesterday came amid Argentina's worst unrest in a decade. Screeching tear gas canisters arced across the capital and police fired rubber bullets at thousands of anti-government protesters in the runup to his fall.

Quote
Discontent with De La Rua was stoked by four years of bitter recession that exhausted the country and left it lurching close to default on its massive public debt.
Though De la Rua technically remained president, media reports said Congress would accept De la Rua's resignation and appoint Puerta interim president in a session this morning.
He faces a tough job. Growth, production and business confidence are plummeting, and unemployment has topped 18 per cent.
Many analysts now predict the new government will likely end the Argentine peso's one-to-one peg with the dollar, in place since 1991. While it helped Argentina vanquish hyperinflation more than a decade ago, today it is blamed for making Argentine exports uncompetitive abroad.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on December 22, 2012, 10:10:40 am
Or is trying to recover............ :rolleyes: 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on December 24, 2012, 05:49:14 am

President resigns after riots leave 22 dead in Argentina :

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-91169/President-resigns-riots-leave-22-dead-Argentina.html#ixzz2FnTQUwTY  (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-91169/President-resigns-riots-leave-22-dead-Argentina.html#ixzz2FnTQUwTY)

Quote
President Fernando De la Rua resigned and fled the government palace in a helicopter, driven from office by a devastating economic crisis and days of rioting that left 22 people dead and homes and supermarkets across Argentina ransacked.
De la Rua's sudden downfall yesterday came amid Argentina's worst unrest in a decade. Screeching tear gas canisters arced across the capital and police fired rubber bullets at thousands of anti-government protesters in the runup to his fall.

Quote
Discontent with De La Rua was stoked by four years of bitter recession that exhausted the country and left it lurching close to default on its massive public debt.
Though De la Rua technically remained president, media reports said Congress would accept De la Rua's resignation and appoint Puerta interim president in a session this morning.
He faces a tough job. Growth, production and business confidence are plummeting, and unemployment has topped 18 per cent.
Many analysts now predict the new government will likely end the Argentine peso's one-to-one peg with the dollar, in place since 1991. While it helped Argentina vanquish hyperinflation more than a decade ago, today it is blamed for making Argentine exports uncompetitive abroad.

This news is about 10 years old. I have friends in Argentina. The current president is female, and according to Argentine newspapers and my friends, she's the worst in terms of oppressive taxation and stifling commerce. Specifically, Argentina has very little manufacturing. So this new president passed a law banning all imports. Rather than boosting local business as was intended, local business ground to a halt with the sudden lack of supplies and fuel. If you buy a $50 item on Amazon, you have to pay around $400 in taxes to get it into the country, and sometimes customs will just sit on it for a year. It takes several hours for travelers to get through customs because they have to declare everything and promise to take all of their belongings out of the country with them or else pay importation fines.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on December 24, 2012, 06:50:57 am
Quote
This news is about 10 years old.

You are correct Yuki - Dailymail ran it as a "real time story" and BBC as well. I should have followed my "3 Source Rule" - I only quoted 2. I could only find 2 this time as well concerning the rioting/issues - lots on the Debt and Bond Swapping though. Thank you for correcting me.

Here is the current situation (although who knows if that is real either?)

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/120093/do-they-know-it%E2%80%99s-xmas (http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/120093/do-they-know-it%E2%80%99s-xmas)

Quote
this is it, right? The world did not end on 21-12-12. Looters went on a rampage in the Patagonian city of Bariloche on Thursday. The looting spread to Greater Buenos Aires on Friday. But now its time to wrap up the political year in volatile Argentina and get down to celebrating, right? Looting, of course, infamously broke out here during the hyperinflation crisis of 1989 and again during the financial implosion of 2001. The riots of 2001 peaked on December 19-20. Christmas, whatever you make of it, was just around the corner. In 2001, then president Fernando de la Ra resigned under pressure on December 19. Is it happening all over again? Yes and no.

 http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2012/12/21/2320320/looting-leaves-2-dead-in-argentina.html#storylink=cpy (http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2012/12/21/2320320/looting-leaves-2-dead-in-argentina.html#storylink=cpy)
Quote
Moyano accused the government of orchestrating the looting.

"This was staged by the government to victimize itself," Moyano said at a televised news conference.
"The president is out of sync," said Moyano, who in recent months has increasingly appeared alongside her political opponents and often speaks out against the government that he long championed.
Fernandez was re-elected with 54 percent of the vote last year, but her popularity has declined since she began digging ever deeper into the pockets of the middle and upper classes to finance her populist policies.
With inflation running at about 25 percent a year, Argentines have sought to change their pesos for dollars, but the government has cracked down on such trades and made it nearly impossible to obtain dollars legally.
Most Argentines surveyed in polls say they're most worried by a rise in crime and consumer prices and the strict currency controls.


Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: poqer on January 02, 2013, 05:40:19 pm
Make 2013 the year you go into as much debt as possible.

1. Re-fi your house to a 30 year and never pay extra each month. (3.5% right now!)

2. Get all new credit cards that you can that offer 0% for a year or so and max it out on silver, if a year passes you can always sell the silver and pay the cc's back off.

3. Buy new cars, with as little down as possible.

With the fed buying up 90% of new debt issuance, gov spending set to increase and debt going to 22 trillion in the next few years (really maybe 100 trillion) there has NEVER been a time more likely that the value of the dollar will crash. WHEN that happens those who have the most debt win. We who have 0% equity and 3 new cars will simply sell a few rounds of our huge stockpile of silver to pay for the houses and cars later. Those of you who have been instilled by your parents to never go into debt, try to pay off your house, ETC - need to fight that urge! You might be able to pay off your house for a gold eagle a year from now. You'd be a million times better off having no home equity and having all that money in gold and silver.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 02, 2013, 06:19:07 pm
Make 2013 the year you go into as much debt as possible.

No thanks. I'm totally debt free and have been for a long time. I don't need anything bad enough to go into debt again... ever.

And I've never signed a contract I didn't honor either. Not going there.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: poqer on January 02, 2013, 07:15:11 pm
If you had a huge mortgage and maxxed out credit cards, used all the money to fortify your house, buy a few more years of food, buy a few hundred more rounds of gold + silver, then paid the minimum payments on everything, you would almost certainly have a gigantic windfall in the near future.

Nothing is certain, life's a gamble, but i'd rather be sitting on 300 rounds of APMEX silver than sitting on a paid off piece of plastic that will buy me 5 gallons of gas if the dollar crashes.

Sure, maybe you are prepped up to the max. But you can always double all those preparations and fortify your home even further. Why would you wait to flex all the lines of credit until they are worthless?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: bennie on January 03, 2013, 03:42:54 am
Make 2013 the year you go into as much debt as possible.

1. Re-fi your house to a 30 year and never pay extra each month. (3.5% right now!)

2. Get all new credit cards that you can that offer 0% for a year or so and max it out on silver, if a year passes you can always sell the silver and pay the cc's back off.

3. Buy new cars, with as little down as possible.

With the fed buying up 90% of new debt issuance, gov spending set to increase and debt going to 22 trillion in the next few years (really maybe 100 trillion) there has NEVER been a time more likely that the value of the dollar will crash. WHEN that happens those who have the most debt win. We who have 0% equity and 3 new cars will simply sell a few rounds of our huge stockpile of silver to pay for the houses and cars later. Those of you who have been instilled by your parents to never go into debt, try to pay off your house, ETC - need to fight that urge! You might be able to pay off your house for a gold eagle a year from now. You'd be a million times better off having no home equity and having all that money in gold and silver.

Comparable to a school of thought during the Carter years. Many people who played the game (in a somewhat variation of this manner), and stuck with the game plan, ended up multi-millionaires by the mid 80's.

One can rebel against the system or one can play the system.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 06, 2013, 02:38:14 pm
Running up a lot of debt is making a very large bet that you know three things:

1) What is going to happen
2) When it is going to happen; and
3) That nothing else will dramatically change the world between now and then.

I submit that none of us knows, or can know, any of these things. 

I know that the course we are on is not stable.  I know that all fiat currencies eventually reach their intrinsic value.  I expect the US dollar to die.

But I have no idea how it will die, I have no idea WHEN it will die, and I have absolutely no idea what other things, which could range from wonderfully good to existential risk bad, may happen in the meantime.

Given the immensity of what we do not know, prepping makes a lot of sense.  But you have to prep for as many scenarios as possible.  If you put all your bets into one scenario, you are almost certain to lose, and very possibly to lose very big.

IF on the other hand your preps have  the effect of letting you take advantage of good changes and weathering bad ones, you are much more likely to use your preps, and much more likely to benefit handsomely from them. 

This difference in attitude and actions is the difference between survivalists and thrivalists. I'm a thrivalist.  I have no interest in hunkering down and clinging to a vastly impoverished version of the status quo.  I want to find a new, happier, healthier, more free future.

So like ML and many others on this board, I'm debt free and determined to stay that way.  I have PMs and food and other preps stocked and ready.  I also have FRN-denominated savings and investments.  (Savings and investments are two different things.)  I have most of my investments in the safest thing I can find: gold and silver.  I have a much smaller fraction invested in wildly speculative plays.  These will either go bust or return 5-10 times the initial amount to me.  I can afford to have quite a few go bust so long as a few hit home runs. 

Instead of a "balanced portfolio" I have two extremes: uber-safe and highly speculative.  I don't play the averages, I prepare for both the best and worst that I can imagine, knowing that my imagination is far more limited than what will happen.

Survivalists seek to game the present system so as to cling to one limited vision of both how the world will end and when it will end.  They fantasize about an autarkic existence that would in practice be brutal, desperately poor, and short.  Thrivalists know the limits of our knowledge, so we prepare to live long and prosper, no matter what the future brings.

Peace,

Silver

edited to expand, correct spelling, and add sentence re: autarky.  Love that word.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 06, 2013, 03:12:48 pm
Survivalists seek to game the present system so as to cling to one limited vision of both how the world will end and when it will end.  Thrivalists know the limits of our knowledge, so we prepare to live long and prosper, no matter what the future brings.

Amen, Silver. I refuse to be trapped in 1900.... I totally believe that people have infinite ingenuity and desire for better life. All they need is the opportunity and guts to pursue it.  I want to go to the stars... if I could only figure out how to live long enough. :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 06, 2013, 04:27:42 pm



Given the immensity of what we do not know, prepping makes a lot of sense.  But you have to prep for as many scenarios as possible.  If you put all your bets into one scenario, you are almost certain to lose, and very possibly to lose very big.

IF on the other hand your preps have  the effect of letting you take advantage of good changes and weathering bad ones, you are much more likely to use your preps, and much more likely to benefit handsomely from them. 

Agreed. As with all investments for the future (prepping included), diversification is key. Spread the risk around/cover as many bases as possible.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on January 06, 2013, 08:45:58 pm
...an autarkic existence... / ... and add sentence re: autarky.  Love that word.

Had to look that one up, of course. Thanks for sharing so I could learn something new! :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 30, 2013, 10:07:13 am
The orchestra is finished tuning, and a hush falls over the crowd as we await the beginning of Act 2, Scene 1 in the giant farce.

When I started this thread over 4 years ago, it was to call attention to the Fed's incredible money creation.  In a manner of a few months, they took the monetary base, a fraud that had taken nearly 100 years to construct, from 800 billion to about 1,600 billion. 

That's inflation: an increase in the supply of money.  The monetary base is the "hot money," it is used by banksters to pump 10 or 20 times that much into the economy, using fractional reserve lending.

In 2009 and early 2010 they created still more, increasing the total to 2,000 billion.  In 2011 they started risking hyperinflation in earnest, gunning the supply of fiat to 2,700 billion in just a few months.

For most of 2011 and all of 2012, they left the total more or less constant.

But now the economy is shrinking again, and it is so obvious that the liars who contort the GDP figures can no longer deny it.  The Fed had this data well in advance of today's announcement of a contraction in GDP.

And they acted.  They did the only thing they know how to do: created still more money. 

The total has now surpassed 2,800 billion, well over 3 times the total available in early 2008.  The rate of increase is rapid, and there's little reason to expect it to slow.

I'm amazed things have held together as well as they have for as long as they have.  I have no idea how much longer this can go on.  If the economy were a car speeding down the highway, I would have jumped out and taken my chances with the pavement a long time ago.  Alas, one cannot escape an economy - but you can protect yourself. 

Time to act, time to review your preps and think again about what you want and how you intend to get it.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 30, 2013, 10:16:30 am
Look for a wide spread crash in small businesses. A good friend here just shut his doors. He did not have any debt, and was still making a little money. Last year he hired two people, but now they are all out of a job. He read the tea leaves on the taxes, ovomitcare and so much more... and said he was glad to get out while he was ahead. He saved and worked all his live, and will now retire to his small working ranch with his wife and grown children.

Not many people will have that option. Not many planned beyond the next "tax refund."
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 30, 2013, 11:25:05 am
I see that crash everywhere I go.  Empty shops.  Strip malls down to 1 or 2 tenants.  New development shopping centers opening with most of the smaller stores empty - only the "anchor tenants" move in.  Small business laying off workers, or letting them retire, and not hiring replacements.  I see no evidence of spending on capital equipment by small businesses.

Large corporations are another matter, but it is increasingly hard to distinguish even the best of them from the government, and they are propped up in ways that small concerns are not.  Interacting with employees of megacorps is like talking to an animated corpse, a zombie.  Very unsettling to say the least.

I was in the USSR not long before the collapse.  It really was quite amazing to walk the streets of a huge city and see nearly all the stores closed, or open with ribbons and bows on the shelves, since they had no merchandise to sell.  I had a much easier time buying meals with cigarettes than with rubles.

When I walk the streets of any US city today, I see the same things, and I get the same feelings of impending doom.  I haven't been paying for food with ciggies, yet, but it's really not very hard to imagine.

I'm very close to hanging it up.  Many of my friends have already done so.  I really can't imagine trying to start a new business.  Knowing what I know now, it would be an act of insanity.

All this will pass, but so will I.  We'll just have to see which comes first.   ^_^

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on January 30, 2013, 11:27:18 am
Look for a wide spread crash in small businesses. A good friend here just shut his doors. He did not have any debt, and was still making a little money. Last year he hired two people, but now they are all out of a job. He read the tea leaves on the taxes, ovomitcare and so much more... and said he was glad to get out while he was ahead. He saved and worked all his live, and will now retire to his small working ranch with his wife and grown children.

Not many people will have that option. Not many planned beyond the next "tax refund."
My dad and his small business are certainly hurting.  He has downsized by at least 25% over the past year.  He is very discouraged by the hostile atmosphere towards small businesses and is not certain how much longer he will survive it.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 30, 2013, 11:36:46 am
Even though I retired five years ago, I still get calls from nurse recruiters. They are DESPERATE. Had one call again the other day. He wanted to know if I'd go to work in Denver. I said "no, and please take me off your list (as I request each time) because I'm retired and I intend to stay that way." Then I hung up.  The wages and "benefits" they are offering are staggering, but I have no interest.

Far better a crust of bread alone in the corner with peace and integrity, rather than a place at the king's banquet of shame.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on January 30, 2013, 12:42:02 pm
One of our favorite (franchise) restaurants closed their doors. We would chat with the owner from time to time when we visited. He also owned the same franchise down in Mississippi. The one location in Tennessee seemed to be doing well. Of course, I don't have access to his books. And sadly, I have no way of knowing exactly why he had to close his two businesses. :(

There was a famly owned hardware store on the Town Square that closed in December after 120+ years in business. According to the newspaper interview, one of the owners said that they couldn't compete with the "big box stores." Not sure what to do with that information. I do try to give my money locally first, I love the Town Square and the owners are usually helpful and wonderful. And sometimes I don't mind paying a little bit more to get something unique or just be a part of something "quaint." However, I stopped in that hardware store a couple of times and their prices were really, really high. When I went about 1 1/2 years ago to look at their wagons for the kiddos I couldn't believe the prices! The lowest price for just a plain ol' small, metal one was $85. We got our wagon, much bigger with extra storage space for $55 elsewhere. So while it's sad to see something that's been around for so long disappear, I'm not going to spend double the money just to help them out...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on January 31, 2013, 05:45:32 pm
Even though I retired five years ago, I still get calls from nurse recruiters. They are DESPERATE. Had one call again the other day. He wanted to know if I'd go to work in Denver. I said "no, and please take me off your list (as I request each time) because I'm retired and I intend to stay that way." Then I hung up.  The wages and "benefits" they are offering are staggering, but I have no interest.

Far better a crust of bread alone in the corner with peace and integrity, rather than a place at the king's banquet of shame.

My neighbor is a retired Air Force officer with varied experience, including signals intelligence.
We were talking a month or so back, and he said he was called by a colonel asking him if he'd
be willing to come back. He asked the colonel if noticed that he was 70 years old.
The colonel saw that, but the AF is really short on talent in some areas, and was desperate to
find some of the old hands to teach the new guys as they had let the talent pool get too shallow.

Man, what is the AF spending their money on that they overlook keeping the talent pool filled???

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on January 31, 2013, 05:51:00 pm
One of our favorite (franchise) restaurants closed their doors. We would chat with the owner from time to time when we visited. He also owned the same franchise down in Mississippi. The one location in Tennessee seemed to be doing well. Of course, I don't have access to his books. And sadly, I have no way of knowing exactly why he had to close his two businesses. :(

There was a famly owned hardware store on the Town Square that closed in December after 120+ years in business. According to the newspaper interview, one of the owners said that they couldn't compete with the "big box stores." Not sure what to do with that information. I do try to give my money locally first, I love the Town Square and the owners are usually helpful and wonderful. And sometimes I don't mind paying a little bit more to get something unique or just be a part of something "quaint." However, I stopped in that hardware store a couple of times and their prices were really, really high. When I went about 1 1/2 years ago to look at their wagons for the kiddos I couldn't believe the prices! The lowest price for just a plain ol' small, metal one was $85. We got our wagon, much bigger with extra storage space for $55 elsewhere. So while it's sad to see something that's been around for so long disappear, I'm not going to spend double the money just to help them out...

We've had a couple of food-related businesses fail in town in the past few months, and a new one open
that may change things. The new one that opened is Minden Meat and Deli. Besides doing their own thing,
they've hired the owners of the failed businesses to come in a couple of days a week and cook their
specialties, which are then sold via the Deli.

The owners of the Deli realized that these people didn't fail because of lack of quality, but because of
the usual business reasons. So now the part timers get to do what they really wanted to do and
don't have the headache of running the business themselves.

Kind of a win-win-win when you consider it brings these services back to the town.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on January 31, 2013, 10:21:45 pm
Bear, that is a nice story; nice outcome.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on February 01, 2013, 01:04:29 am
Bear, that is a nice story; nice outcome.

Yeah, sometimes things just turn out well. Gotta remember that.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on February 01, 2013, 09:16:44 am
these people didn't fail because of lack of quality, but because of the usual business reasons.

Nearly all small businesses fail for that reason alone.  Being good at a craft, trade, or whatever doesn't mean you'll be a good businessman, or that you'll enjoy running a business even if you figure out how to do it.  I've seen so many bakers/artists/planners/contractors/you-name-it that were miserable because running a business is so much different than doing the work that makes the money.

How nice to hear of such a success story.  Thanks for sharing.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 01, 2013, 09:35:59 am
Nearly all small businesses fail for that reason alone.  Being good at a craft, trade, or whatever doesn't mean you'll be a good businessman, or that you'll enjoy running a business even if you figure out how to do it.

There is that, of course... but the business climate filled with confiscatory taxes, insane "rules" for everything, waring "jurisdictions" and contradictory "laws" from various levels of government... all of the woes of trying to find competent help, and figuring out how to pay them... and on and on...

The real miracle is that there are any small businesses left at all.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on February 01, 2013, 01:55:33 pm
I agree with every word you wrote Mama.  Heck, I live that reality every day.

The effect is to raise the bar that  much higher.  Twenty years ago, my business skills were enough to keep 20+ people employed while making enough money to pay a decent profit to me.  I could easily have expanded to 60 people, had I been willing to take on debt.

Today, even though I've learned a lot about running a business in general and my industry in particular, with the market paying quite a bit more for my efforts, I'm barely keeping my head above water.  My admin overhead has gone up a factor of 5, my taxes and regulatory fees have doubled, my profits are 1/20 of their peak values.

Just one example, I don't feel up to a full-throated rant today:

If the problems of finding help were limited to competence, I would be willing to take my chances.  I can take steps to protect us from the blunders of fools.  But looking for help today is a bet-the-firm proposition for any small or medium business.  If a blind, retarded, morbidly obese, grade-school dropout learns of an open position for say, advanced computer security forensics, comes uninvited to our office, and demands the job, I will of course not respond.  I won't say no, especially not in writing, as I am no fool.

But they still have more than sufficient grounds for a complaint.  They don't need to hire a lawyer.  There are at least 6 state agencies and 3 federal that I know of that will be more than happy to hear their plight and hammer us.  There is no court, no due process, no presumption of innocence, none of that.  The same bureaucrat is prosecutor, judge, jury, and executioner.  We will find out about the action when we get letters informing us that we have been found in violation of 27 sub-sections of chapter MNO.xyz.123 of CFR twenty billion.  We will be fined and can choose either to pay or to fight. We will be warned that further violations could result in prison sentences. If we fight, we may get the fine reduced but probably not below what it costs to pay the lawyers to fight it.  If we fight it on our own the fine will go up and the doors will certainly close.

As part of the "settlement," we'll be forced to hire the retard, spend unlimited amounts of money on special office furniture, fantastically expensive special computers, elevators, and whatever else they can dream up to "accommodate" their "disability."  We can never fire them, never discipline them, never give them any real direction.  If we do, we will be hammered doubly hard for our "discrimination" and our "previous history of non-compliance."

Why play this game any longer?  I'm an idiot for sticking with it this long, but I have a soft spot for the fine employees and their families that work hard and who depend on me for their well-earned paychecks, their health insurance, their 401(k) plan, and other necessities. 

The wonder that there are any small businesses at all is easy enough to explain.  There are soft fools with history and personal investment, like me.  Then there are ignorant fools who have no freaking idea what they are getting into.  Rational, informed people have left or are planning to leave.  That's one of the many, many reasons why I know this depression will get a whole lot worse before it gets any better.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 01, 2013, 02:31:45 pm
The wonder that there are any small businesses at all is easy enough to explain.  There are soft fools with history and personal investment, like me.  Then there are ignorant fools who have no freaking idea what they are getting into.  Rational, informed people have left or are planning to leave.  That's one of the many, many reasons why I know this depression will get a whole lot worse before it gets any better.

Amen. Been there when I was involved with hiring nurses for the company I was with. First problem, of course, very few applicants at all, and almost none of them actually qualified. We were always so short handed that we had little choice but to hire the best of these worst and attempt to retrain them... pretty much a losing proposition. But we had government mandates on our patient/nurse ratio - so the pressure was incredible from every side. And it has only gotten much, much worse since I left there seven years ago. What will happen with obummercare, God help us, who knows? But nothing good.

I did start a small business in 1975. I soon got to the point where I needed to hire a helper.  She wasn't willing to work "off the books," since she needed "benefits." I couldn't find anyone I could trust who would. Once I ran the numbers, I sold everything and quit. I was in nursing school then anyway, so didn't have time to continue doing it myself.

Since then, I've had more than a dozen ideas for a good home based business, but none of them will ever see the light of day as long as things are the way they are now, even if I found partners willing to go gray market. Absolutely impossible. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 02, 2013, 07:08:41 am
Spot on Silver.  I think you and my dad could swap business horror stories all day long...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 02, 2013, 10:09:05 am
That is why I went to pay per job handyman status insted of working under an umbrella like those home improvement stores provide.   I do not have any real legal obligations to anyone since I am just a tradesman trading a trade.........for barter whenever I can but most people pay cash.  Documented cash is a PITA since that means taxes, so I do what I gotta do to continue to be left alone, and that has gotten very expensive.  Even freelancing I am almost better off quitting........
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 02, 2013, 10:21:53 am
It's even worse for a trade or profession for which a "license" is required. I could easily trade nursing advice/care for cash or barter, but all it would take would be one person to "complain" or deliberately seek to take me down, and I'd be in jail for "practicing nursing without a license." It's just not worth it.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 03, 2013, 07:05:44 am
It's even worse for a trade or profession for which a "license" is required. I could easily trade nursing advice/care for cash or barter, but all it would take would be one person to "complain" or deliberately seek to take me down, and I'd be in jail for "practicing nursing without a license." It's just not worth it.

That's too bad.  All that wonderful knowledge in your brain and it's too risky to use to help others (for barter).  Once the balloon goes up is a different story.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 05, 2013, 04:39:50 pm
It's even worse for a trade or profession for which a "license" is required. I could easily trade nursing advice/care for cash or barter, but all it would take would be one person to "complain" or deliberately seek to take me down, and I'd be in jail for "practicing nursing without a license." It's just not worth it.

That's too bad.  All that wonderful knowledge in your brain and it's too risky to use to help others (for barter).  Once the balloon goes up is a different story.

I guess I got lucky in that license respect. As a retired Captain with an expired license I can still act as the Captain on private vessels as long as there are No Paying Passengers aboard.
I have done several private deliveries since I let my license lapse. I found that as long as the Insurance Company will accept my 25 years of experience [with documentation of course] then I can legally be the Captain.
Put one passenger on [who traded a sandwich for a boat ride - money not required] and Oops the feds can arrest the Captain who has no current license.
Like ML says "It's just not worth it."
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on February 05, 2013, 05:28:55 pm
My wife is reading a book on the early Basque settlers and immigrants who came to the valley
where we live. The book is a collection of stories of each of the families, who they were, and
what they did.

After getting about half way through, she remarked that there seems to be a common theme
in many of the stories - at the end of the 19th, beginning of the 20th centuries, this place was
wide open and anything was possible. As things became "civilized" government intervention
made many things no longer possible. Rules that protect 'X' from 'Y' make it impossible to do 'Z'.

People changed businesses, often more than once, in order to make a living. The regulations put
in place raised the cost of doing business so high that 'regular folks' were shut out.

It still better than California, but it's not as free as it used to be.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 06, 2013, 06:53:18 am
Yep, there are "Gotchas" all over the place, especially where the liscensing games are involved.  I have a lawyer friend that says he HAS to have the CLUB Membership.  The glad handing keeps him in touch with the bar association hai polloi so he can be ready when this or that new gotcha rolls down.  They are usually "Not Targeting" a specific "Non-insider"........

It is like the old "Young man of Preference" that would have some noble sponsership in England at the time of the colonies........I find it pretty abhorrent.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 08, 2013, 10:21:31 am
sigh

What ever happened to the "advancement on merit" concept?
[/rhetorical question]

We are coming under the sway of the "send button" generation.
They want "Instant" reactions, outcomes and of course benefits.

"work your way up", "the ladder of success", "pull yourself up by your boot straps", "earn your promotion" and so many other sayings have gone by the by.

Sad and more than a little scary. Where will these folks turn when the economy tanks?

[mental image] grasshoppers looking to harness an ant nest [/mental image]
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 08, 2013, 11:07:11 am
sigh

What ever happened to the "advancement on merit" concept?
[/rhetorical question]

We are coming under the sway of the "send button" generation.
They want "Instant" reactions, outcomes and of course benefits.

"work your way up", "the ladder of success", "pull yourself up by your boot straps", "earn your promotion" and so many other sayings have gone by the by.

Sad and more than a little scary. Where will these folks turn when the economy tanks?

[mental image] grasshoppers looking to harness an ant nest [/mental image]

+1
I work with quite a few young engineers (less than 2 years out of college) and they want all the glory and promotions instantly.  They want to be tech leads, managers, etc on day one.  Working in an industry for decades and gaining experience through blood, sweat and tears is a foreign concept to them.  I don't know how many times I've told these young guys/gals that I'm still learning after only 15 years!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 09, 2013, 06:05:07 am
Fine give it to them, assign them to the "Apophis Project".........   Line up a grpoup of engineer to design a deep sea habitat and then when the demand directorship, explain to them it is a long term project requireing 20 years of commitment, and isolation. If they still wanna keep going reveal that a task force is being put together to mine the asteroids that come REAL CLOSE.  His team, if he accepts the challenge, would be building what he just designed to live in while the asteroid makes its 20 year trip.......

Want a great high paying job, quickly, take the risks to warrant it.  Otherwise be the quiet, days pat for a days work tech wennie you really are......  I figure about 1 in 20 is willing to take the risks, 1 in 5 of them has any real vision to go beyond.  The beyond for those guys varies enough that that is a pretty rare bird (Rutans, Brunnels, etc.) that is willing to take a shot.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 10, 2013, 11:31:23 am
If this asteroid you mention is large enough and solid enough it could not only be mined for materials in need  but could also be slowly converted to an interstellar human habitat for transport to the outer planets of our own solar system first and then the nearer star systems and eventually other galaxies. [IE: The "Rama" series by AC Clarke]

Talk about your "voyage of discovery" HT to Columbus.

As well as .... teaching some impatient newly papered engineers that "Rewards Require Effort". {IE: Patience}

:thumbsup:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 10, 2013, 11:38:45 am
I've read quite a bit to indicate that humans might not live long absent gravity, or at least they'd never be able to return to live in earth gravity again. A colony on an asteroid might well mean a one way trip.

Don't know. Guess we'll find out eventually. :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 10, 2013, 12:09:09 pm
A lot od the earth crossing asteroid have more than enough material to set up a gravity centrifuge.  They could have one in action and spin it up to get back in shape for gravity, I suspect they are going to be in good shape regardless considering the tunneling, mining and processing they are going to be doing.  they will have to get things set up quickly or go the way of Roanoke or the Donner Party.......  I would consider it motivation.......

They way I imagine it, is that there would be a lot of shuttle tanks around, and the engineering for making those into a spinning, 1g, construction camp has already been done......

Terms to search:
Orbital construction shack,  Stanford torus, asteroid mining.  Mass drivers, USS Goddard, Gerrard K O'Neill, T.A. Heppenheimer,

I am really talking about using 1970's technology here, so it will be easier to do now.......

Building a shuttle system with the aluminum composite system use in the Airbus airliner would save a lot of weight, booster rockets with solid carbon composite shells instead of gasketed aluminum.......  A lot of the stuff going up would not be coming back any way, so the cargo designs in TA Heppenheimer's book would be a large majority of the heavy lift, with Rutan's space plane moving people.  Our electronics and robotics are way higher in sophistication too, maybe automated cargo shuttles.........
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 10, 2013, 12:26:41 pm
A lot od the earth crossing asteroid have more than enough material to set up a gravity centrifuge.  In a couple of months, they could have one in action and spin it up to get back in shape for gravity, I suspect they are going to be in good shape regardles considering the tunneling, mining and processing they are going to be doing.  they will have to get things set up quickly or go the way of Roanoke or the Donner Party.......  I would consider it motivation.......

I've no experience in a weightless environment, of course, and though it sounds nice in part... knowing a little about how muscles and other body parts function I suspect it would be very difficult to work that way. Our muscles and bones are designed to work with gravity. Our blood circulation and digestive/elimination process might be seriously compromised in a weightless environment, especially over time. Muscle mass would atrophy and bones would become weak. There are some serious questions about this even in the lesser gravity of Mars.

Space medicine is going to be very challenging... and we had better know something about all this before we head out to the stars, for sure. :)

But I want to go anyway!!!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 10, 2013, 12:38:42 pm
Yep, there is always a price paid moving into new territories.  I suspect that sometimes a bit of ignorance (Like those hillbilly stunt guys on the TV) is a good thing, since thinking about the price of "going there" and gaining the knowledge can be a limiting factor.....
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 10, 2013, 01:00:22 pm
Quote
"I've no experience in a weightless environment, of course, and though it sounds nice in part... knowing a little about how muscles and other body parts function I suspect it would be very difficult to work that way. "

There would be gravity. Just not the natural gravity of a gigantic mass but the centrifugal force sort which as far as the human body knows is the same thing. The sensation of weight and the resistance to motion to stimulate muscle resistance and health.

It Might run something like this: [keeping in mind I am a sailor not a Space Engineer]

Step 1 Arrive and set up shelter. [externally and on one end if peanut shaped]
Step 2 Set up the oxygen/hydrogen stabilization/scrubbing process for a local internal "atmosphere".
Step 3 Set up the hydroponics farms for food and oxygen creation.
Step 4 Set up the "spin motors" to create gravity for the shelter complex
Step 5 Commence mining operations
Step 6 Set up the magnetic "sling launcher to ship ores and such to 1-Earth Orbit and 2-Lunar orbit.
Step 7 Commence construction of the interstellar vehicle IF practicable/applicable.

Note:
Many of these "Steps" can be happening simultaneously.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 10, 2013, 02:08:54 pm
I'd think the asteroid would have to be mighty big before rotation created gravity without making everyone feel as if they were in a giant cement mixer.  :)  As I said, I think it's going to take a while before people know what will work and what won't.  Got to get there first, however.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 11, 2013, 02:20:34 am
Cables and shuttle fuel tanks........make the cables long enough and the spinning effect dissappears.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gaurdduck on February 11, 2013, 04:17:12 am
I'd think the asteroid would have to be mighty big before rotation created gravity without making everyone feel as if they were in a giant cement mixer.  :)  As I said, I think it's going to take a while before people know what will work and what won't.  Got to get there first, however.

You'd have to have an interfering source of gravity to feel like you were spinning. Basically, centrifugal force on earth would create the effect, but in a weightless environment, woud behave as if it were te only source of gravity. You wouldn't feel like you were spinning because the liquid in your inner ear is responding to centrifugal force only, not in addition to gravity. In the vastness of space, you will also have little to no reference points to alert you brain as to the spinning motion.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 11, 2013, 01:22:45 pm
I'd think the asteroid would have to be mighty big before rotation created gravity without making everyone feel as if they were in a giant cement mixer.  :)  As I said, I think it's going to take a while before people know what will work and what won't.  Got to get there first, however.

You'd have to have an interfering source of gravity to feel like you were spinning. Basically, centrifugal force on earth would create the effect, but in a weightless environment, woud behave as if it were the only source of gravity. You wouldn't feel like you were spinning because the liquid cilia in your inner ear is are responding to centrifugal force only, not in addition to gravity. In the vastness of space, you will also have little to no reference points to alert you brain as to the spinning motion.
Minor corrections are mine

Exactly.
Thanks Yuki.

The "cement mixer" sensation only works when there is an external gravity field outside of the mixing chamber.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 11, 2013, 02:12:27 pm
Yes, I'm quite familiar with how the inner ear works. What I'm saying is that one would be standing or walking on the inside of the "wall" of a rotating cylinder or globe like structure in space, since that would feel like "down" even in minimal gravity. As a living environment, that would work out ok - likely - in a LARGE structure. But in a structure only a few hundred square feet, you'd almost be bumping your nose on the "floor" ahead of you with each step. LOL  Maybe that would be ok temporarily for asteroid miners, but I can't see that as workable in a colony sense.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 11, 2013, 04:12:00 pm
Actually with an anchorpoint on one end of the sateriod, you could run cables out to counterbalanced shuttle fuel tanks.  spin the up to the right speed and you would be pulling the bucket on a rope trick..........  A few days to set up, then you get to digging tunells and such for farm/ enviro caverns and such.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on February 19, 2013, 06:35:22 pm
Knobster - This attitude is most reflective of society in general. Years ago when we watched American Idol (just the tryouts) parents coddled their children's inability to sing. The parents often would become angry with the judges. Another point, I sometimes catch a show like "House Hunters" on HGTV, and many of these first time home buyers have pie-in-the-sky expectations demands. They look at a $400k+ house and turn up their noses because the kitchen cabinets are the "wrong" color or they don't like the carpet. So many folks have never been taught sweat equity. Or to start smaller.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Mountain Prepper on February 19, 2013, 07:52:05 pm
Knobster - This attitude is most reflective of society in general. Years ago when we watched American Idol (just the tryouts) parents coddled their children's inability to sing. The parents often would become angry with the judges. Another point, I sometimes catch a show like "House Hunters" on HGTV, and many of these first time home buyers have pie-in-the-sky expectations demands. They look at a $400k+ house and turn up their noses because the kitchen cabinets are the "wrong" color or they don't like the carpet. So many folks have never been taught sweat equity. Or to start smaller.

Cultural Marxism
Feminism
Promotion of Statism to gain "utopia" by the oligarchy.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on March 16, 2013, 09:57:17 am
Surprise! Savers in Cyprus get a "one time tax levy" -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21814325 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21814325)

Quote
People in Cyprus with less than 100,000 euros in their accounts will have to pay a one-time tax of 6.75%, Eurozone officials said.

Those with greater sums will lose 9.9%.

Cypriot bank officials quoted by AP news agency said depositors could access all of their money except the amount set by the levy.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on March 16, 2013, 12:14:28 pm
"One time?" Ah... sure thing. But probably more like THIS time. And then, there's always NEXT time.

The smart ones have not had anything in a "bank" for a long time now. :) Much harder to "tax" what's in the mattress or buried under the barn.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on March 16, 2013, 12:57:26 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=0)

Quote
In a move that could set off new fears of contagion across the euro zone, anxious depositors lined up at cash machines on Saturday in Cyprus to withdraw money hours after European officials in Brussels required that part of a new 10 billion euro bailout must be paid for directly from the bank accounts of ordinary savers.

snip

Quote
Cyprus has been a blip on the radar screen of Europes long-running debt crisis until now.

(or unless you read TMM  :rolleyes: )

What is interesting in this case is the lack of outrage (at least in most E.U. papers), because the "Rich" will be paying for this. Of course if one has spent their entire life and managed to amass $1 - $130,859.97 (Euro exchange rate as of yesterday)   -  6.75% of that is now gone. Digitally transferred over to .gov.eu .

Even more interesting - if this stands in a Nation with "only" 1 million residents - what is to prevent the EU and IMF from applying this blanket solution across the board to France, Spain, Ireland - our standard PIIG conversation. If I lived in a PIIG country - I might begin thinking about heading on over to my ATM.  This of course could (could) cause little bank runs which would catch on fire.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on March 17, 2013, 11:46:22 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/business/global/facing-bailout-tax-cypriots-try-to-get-cash-out-of-banks.html?_r=0)

Quote
In a move that could set off new fears of contagion across the euro zone, anxious depositors lined up at cash machines on Saturday in Cyprus to withdraw money hours after European officials in Brussels required that part of a new 10 billion euro bailout must be paid for directly from the bank accounts of ordinary savers.

snip

Quote
Cyprus has been a blip on the radar screen of Europes long-running debt crisis until now.

(or unless you read TMM  :rolleyes: )

What is interesting in this case is the lack of outrage (at least in most E.U. papers), because the "Rich" will be paying for this. Of course if one has spent their entire life and managed to amass $1 - $130,859.97 (Euro exchange rate as of yesterday)   -  6.75% of that is now gone. Digitally transferred over to .gov.eu .

There are two rates - 9.mumble% for the 'wealthy', and 6.75% for everybody else. They are going after a piece of EVERYTHING in the banks.
Quote
Even more interesting - if this stands in a Nation with "only" 1 million residents - what is to prevent the EU and IMF from applying this blanket solution across the board to France, Spain, Ireland - our standard PIIG conversation. If I lived in a PIIG country - I might begin thinking about heading on over to my ATM.  This of course could (could) cause little bank runs which would catch on fire.

The EU brain trust were concerned about a run on the bank. Gee, do ya think!   :ph34r:

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on March 18, 2013, 08:42:46 am
So who here thinks that Cyprus PTB will levy a 2 or 3 percent tax instead of the current proposal and then everyone will be "thankful" that their frozen accounts have increased in value?

Spegiel  (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/commentary-tapping-bank-customers-is-the-right-move-in-cyprus-a-889476.html)says this is "Fair and Just" - of course at this point it is a NIMBY event
Quote
When historians look back on the euro crisis decades from now, they will likely speak of March 16 as the beginning of its fourth phase. Pressured by the other euro-zone member states, Cyprus is being forced to partially expropriate the funds of banking customers to assist in the country's financial restructuring. This after Cyprus was essentially sucked into the crisis because of its bloated banking sector.

Interestingly enough (with the limited information on the proposal and the fact that today is a Bank Holiday in Cyprus) - the Corporate Tax Rate under this proposal rises from 10% to 12.5%.

**So now the plan is just to keep the banks closed until Thursday.



Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mutti on March 19, 2013, 10:27:50 am
Interesting: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm)

National planning Cyprus-style solution for New Zealand

...then again it could just be rabble-rousing by the Green Party  - Mouse?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on March 19, 2013, 11:04:43 am
Oh! Just posted this same thing in the general discussion. Great minds.... like paths... LOL  What can I say.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 26, 2013, 09:49:08 am
I started this thread in 2008 (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.0), when the fantastic rate of money creation warranted a general alarm.

In 2010 I posted about the fed's decision to monetize yet more debt (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.msg339130#msg339130).

Here it is 2013, no hyperinflation, no collapse.  Am I like, a crazy person?  I am quite sure they will say so.

But the signs grow ever more ominous, not better.  We're spending rather more time at the brink of the abyss than I expected, but I've always admitted that applying sound economics allows one to predict what will happen, but never when (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=32905.msg408365#msg408365).

Here is a brief summary of some of the latest warnings:

Home prices have shot up at the fastest pace since record-keeping began 43+ years ago (http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130626.htm?T).
The estimable John Williams of Shadowstats.com reports that compared to pre-recession peaks:

Williams also reports that the Feds ever-expanding QE-infinity has monetized 78.4% of the concurrent increase in Treasury debt.

Monetizing the debt is an extraordinarily dangerous move, forbidden by law in most nations.  Since we are no longer a nation of laws, that prohibition is meaningless.  Monetizing the debt on such grand scales typically leads to hyperinflation.

Williams writes that the current market instabilities suggest that the hyperinflation end game is near at hand.

I tend to agree, but having said the same thing for 5 years, I'm not willing to say how many days are "near at hand."

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on June 26, 2013, 11:16:15 am
Indeed Silver.  I am at a loss trying to understand how this house of cards has not yet tumbled. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lonewolf72 on June 26, 2013, 01:37:28 pm
Silver, would it be possible to explain "monetizing the debt" so that someone with a limited understanding of economics can understand it? For my personal finances I use cash, and I don't have a good grasp of how debt works, other than I don't like to owe anyone anything. Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 26, 2013, 02:42:35 pm
That is a very good question.

In the US, the federal reserve has been granted the exclusive monopoly on printing legal tender, called federal reserve notes, FRNs.  This authority was granted despite the express prohibition in the Constitution, but that's another rant.

If the federal reserve had printed, for example, 1 trillion FRNs, and released them into the economy by whatever means, all of us peons could have used those notes as money.  The fed would take in old, worn paper FRNs and print replacements, but no more. 

As time goes on, the work of honest, productive people tends to increase the wealth of the country.  FRNs are used to transfer wealth from one person to another.  Since the amount of FRNs are fixed, while the amount of wealth goes up, as time goes on each FRN could be traded for an ever-increasing quantity of goods.

But the fed was created precisely to prevent this from happening.  Instead, the fed continuously creates more FRNs.  Last century, they used printing presses, paper, and ink.  That took time and effort, so the modern fed just creates digital bits in electronic ledgers to create new money.

If the fed was wise enough (ha!) to create new FRNs only as fast as new wealth is created, the purchasing power of each FRN would stay more or less constant.

In reality the fed intentionally creates new FRNs much faster than new wealth is created, so the purchasing power of each FRN declines over time.  Most estimates show that the modern FRN can buy only about 2% of what could be purchased 100 years ago in 1913, when the fed was created.  I think those estimates are wrong, the answer is closer to 1%, but that's a quibble.

Why destroy the purchasing power of the nation's money?  Follow it to see.

What actually happens when new FRNs are created is that favored parties get them first.  Today the favored parties are too-big-too-fail banks (TBTF banks), the military-industrial complex, the pharmaco-industrial complex (sometimes called by the naive the 'health care system'), and of course the government.

Whomever gets newly created money first can spend it quickly, and get stuff at the old prices.  Sooner or later the markets react, reducing the purchasing power of the FRNs, but the process takes time and is uneven.  By spending it first, before prices adjust, the money creators funnel wealth from the productive and savers into the hands of the favored parties.

This process works extremely well.  It has been going on for a full century.  That same century has seen an enormous increase in the power and wealth of those favored parties.

But even this level of stealing from the poor to give to the rich isn't fast enough for TPTB.  They like to spend more than the government steals from the productive class in taxes.  Then the uber-rich and other favored parties, the same ones who get first crack at new FRNs, buy US Treasury bonds and bills.  The bonds and notes are debt; the government agrees to pay them back on Tuesday, with interest, in return for buying the hamburger today. 

When more-or-less private individuals and firms are the ones who buy the bonds and bills, it places a limit on how large a deficit the government can run.  Once the government has sucked up all of the savings of these folks, it must slow down the rate of growth of its spending.

When the fed creates $1 trillion in new FRNs, and gives them directly to the government in exchange for a note that says "the US government will pay the federal reserve $1 trillion next year plus 2% interest" that is monetizing the debt.

This is an unseen, undebated tax.  Politicians love it because they can vote more power and wealth to themselves and their cronies without taking the politically unpopular step  of voting to raise taxes. 

The reason this is so dangerous is it removes the final, flimsy check on how much and how fast the fed can create new money.  Only the government can spend $1 trillion a year, for year after year.  No private firm, however large, can manage that feat or waste so much.

Once the fed starts monetizing the debt, the rate of new money creation skyrockets.  This accelerates the reduction in the purchasing power of each FRN.  There will come a day when the 2% value of our money today compared to 1913 looks like a great deal.  There will be a moment in time when it is 0.0002%.  Eventually the currency will be destroyed completely.  No one will trade anything of value for it.  The paper notes will be burned, buried, or used as toilet paper.  Something else will take their place.  But that process will destroy not only the wealth of savers and honest folk, but the very fabric of civil society.

The federal reserve is an arm of the government, despite quibbles from people who refuse to look behind the curtain.

A short answer to a long question.  Monetizing the debt is when one arm of the government creates money from nothing, and gives it to the rest of the government to spend.  It makes every single one of us peons poorer in the process, and sows the seeds for hyperinflation.

Because once the rate of money creation grows large enough, price inflation gets very high, and people start to notice.  As soon as everyman realizes he is being screwed, and that it will never stop, they start getting rid of FRNs as fast as possible.  They take their paycheck and spend it within minutes on food, fuel, booze, cigarettes, furniture, anything at all rather than hold the rapidly decaying FRNs.   Search for posts by me with the word "hyperinflation" for more details.

Prices skyrocket, the economy collapses, and we move on to the next tragedy: the elevation of a strongman who will very likely destroy all life on the planet. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lonewolf72 on June 26, 2013, 06:00:37 pm
Thanks. That gives me a little better grasp of the concept, and a lot to ruminate on. It does look like my habit of spending FRN's when I have them may be a good thing, though. :laugh:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: gunslinger598 on June 26, 2013, 07:48:00 pm
My thanks as well.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on June 26, 2013, 07:50:53 pm
Lonewolf, you clearly got the lesson understood at a functional level.  Anything but FRNs and the house of cards built upon it (stocks, bonds, politicians).

Silver, very nice job. Thanks for taking the time to explain it thoroughly and clearly.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: RVM45 on July 18, 2013, 03:45:36 pm
Okay, I remember Milton Friedman {Who is considered an Economic Conservative for some Obscure Reason}...

And others Economists,

Have argued that currency should be inflated to keep pace with a growing GNP...

Why?

I mean, what is the Rationale, however flawed?

If the system worked perfectly (I mean no excess inflation) wouldn't that mean that no matter how much the GNP rose, that the Average Standard of Living would never rise?

{Yes, if the day came that a Penny would buy a Million Dollars worth of Material Goods (at today's prices), by that time the Mint would have long since turned out many coins and bills that were small fractions of a penny.}

I'm also a bit puzzled about how "Interest" would work in an Economy is a Continuos Steady State of Deflation.

{If we can Imagine such a state.}

Why put money into a bank, when its Purchasing Power goes up dramatically every year?

Why not just hang onto the money?

Suppose that a Dollar's purchasing power goes up 35% every year...

{Or at least faster than the most exorbitant Interest Fees...}

If I borrow a Dollar today, expecting me to pay back even the same Dollar two years from now amounts to extreme usury.

I should lend you a Dollar and only expect you to pay Eighty Cents back in two years?

I'd get a higher return hanging on to my Dollar.

So where would Investment Capital come from?

How would a totally free, Laissez Faire Economy react to this type situation?




.....RVM45              :mellow::thumbsup::mellow:




Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on July 19, 2013, 06:22:40 am
Currency should be inflated to keep pace with a growing GNP?

Inflation occurs when one thing happens: the value of 'money' goes down which, in our system, means the number of dollars circulating goes up.

I'm no economist but I'm not sure how lowering the value of money can keep pace with the growing value of all products and services.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: RVM45 on July 19, 2013, 11:17:29 am

****"As time goes on, the work of honest, productive people tends to increase the wealth of the country.  FRNs are used to transfer wealth from one person to another.  Since the amount of FRNs are fixed, while the amount of wealth goes up, as time goes on each FRN could be traded for an ever-increasing quantity of goods.

But the fed was created precisely to prevent this from happening.  Instead, the fed continuously creates more FRNs.  Last century, they used printing presses, paper, and ink.  That took time and effort, so the modern fed just creates digital bits in electronic ledgers to create new money.

If the fed was wise enough (ha!) to create new FRNs only as fast as new wealth is created, the purchasing power of each FRN would stay more or less constant.

In reality the fed intentionally creates new FRNs much faster than new wealth is created, so the purchasing power of each FRN declines over time.  Most estimates show that the modern FRN can buy only about 2% of what could be purchased 100 years ago in 1913, when the fed was created.  I think those estimates are wrong, the answer is closer to 1%, but that's a quibble****"



Peace,

Silver


Isn't that exactly what Silver said in his post?

He's not Advocating this mind you, just explaining the process.

He says: "As wealth goes up..."

The Yearly GNP is a rough estimate of how much new wealth was created that year.

Then he goes on to say: "The Fed was created precisely to prevent this from happening."

Yeah, I know that the Theory is out there on the edges of comprehensibility. I didn't create the Theory and Silver isn't advocating the Theory...

But I'd like to understand it...

Unless its deliberate gibberish meant to use "The Emperor's New Clothes Effect" wherein everyone is afraid to step forward and say that "The damned thing isn't just wrongit isn't even well wrought enough to be Wrong..."



.....RVM45           :mellow::thumbsup::mellow:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 20, 2013, 06:12:17 am
Those are good questions, and there are a lot of them.  Let me take another crack at the first one:

Quote
Okay, I remember Milton Friedman {Who is considered an Economic Conservative for some Obscure Reason}...

And others Economists,

Have argued that currency should be inflated to keep pace with a growing GNP...

Why?

I mean, what is the Rationale, however flawed?

You are quite right that Friedman advocated for continuous increases in the supply of money. He was a central planner and believed that he was wise enough to control several hundred million people. 

The Rationale (love the caps) is just that, a pathetic story offered as a sop to the rubes.  It stands no scrutiny.

The Rationale is that by continuously creating more money, businesses and investors are more likely to produce more goods and services, making everyone richer.

This is pure, unadulterated BS.  ALL entrepreneurs, ALL businessmen, ALL investors can and do plan for changes in the future value of goods and services - including that critically important good called money.  It doesn't matter if the value of money goes up, down, or stays the same.  What matters is how well they can predict the  future value of money.

The one grain of truth in the Rationale is that artificially low interest rates, which are one of the results of continuous money creation, tends to send false signals to entrepreneurs and investors.  The false signal is that there is pent-up demand for more houses (since interest rates are low, more people can afford mortgages), more cars, more jeejaws, more vacations, more stuff.

Sophisticated investors know the signals are false.  Most people are not sophisticated, and the false signals produce booms in housing, or stocks, or commodities, or even tulips.  But because the signal is false, because there are in fact no savings waiting to be spent, no capital to invest, the boom must always end in a bust. 

We have seen this in 2000, 2003, 2008, and we're about to see it again.

To understand Friedman's true motives, follow the money.  His biggest innovation, the crowning achievement of his long career, was the withholding of taxes from paychecks.  When the feds come and take 1/3 or more of a man's income at the end of the year, he often doesn't have it, and he is always quite upset by the transaction.  Steal 1/3 of every paycheck, and he quickly grows used to it.

Friedman served the state, his monetary policies serve the state, his withholding tax poured an unending torrent of money into government coffers that enabled the cancerous growth of Leviathan.  May Friedman rot in hell for all eternity.

Why did Friedman serve the state?  Because he was a pathetic maggot of limited talent and a great aversion for honest toil, but gifted with low cunning and a complete lack of morals. He could lie like a rug to his own mother, and did so while stealing her life savings.  He got a better deal serving the state than any free market actor would have offered.

Part of what I've written above answers another question:

Quote
I'm also a bit puzzled about how "Interest" would work in an Economy is a Continuos Steady State of Deflation.

{If we can Imagine such a state.}

Why put money into a bank, when its Purchasing Power goes up dramatically every year?

Why not just hang onto the money?

Remember that entrepreneurs, businessmen, and investors always allow for changes in the value of money.  In steady deflation, you are right that FEWER people would use banks, but most people would still keep some money in banks.  Honest banks (Hah!) offer safety and convenience in a free market.  You'd put money in a bank so that you could write checks.  You might get even higher interest than the deflation rate, as the bank lends that money out to people who need capital.

The ultimate question is how the entrepreneurs, businessmen, and investors estimate the future value of money.  In a free market, they would look at long-lead items, like the investments in mines, the buildup of transportation systems, population growth, savings rates.  They would make estimates.  Some would be right, some would be wrong.

Thanks to Friedman and his ilk, instead entrepreneurs, businessmen, and investors listen to every word from morons like the Benbernak.  They parse every phase, look for hidden portent in the placement of commas and the timing of announcements.  It's a terrible way to estimate the future, since whomever has his hand jammed up the rear of the sock puppet can change the tune at any time.

And that is exactly the point. By making the decisions arbitrary and capricious, power is given to the few, and taken away from the productive class in the free market.  That is the ultimate reason for this complex charade, and for the antics of knaves and criminals like Friedman.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on July 20, 2013, 10:09:24 pm
OhMyGosh, Silver, GREAT JOB of stripping off the Emperor's clothes and exposing his flabby body to the world.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on July 21, 2013, 06:21:27 am
Talked with my old realtor in Michigan a couple of days ago and she said the housing market has stalled a bit since interest rates are now in the 4.5% range.

Historically still low but the extra 1% interest can be a deal breaker for many people.

The current interest rate can't stay at such low values forever; this bubble is about to burst.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 21, 2013, 08:01:15 am
Suppose that a Dollar's purchasing power goes up 35% every year...

{Or at least faster than the most exorbitant Interest Fees...}

If I borrow a Dollar today, expecting me to pay back even the same Dollar two years from now amounts to extreme usury.

I should lend you a Dollar and only expect you to pay Eighty Cents back in two years?

I'd get a higher return hanging on to my Dollar.

So where would Investment Capital come from?

How would a totally free, Laissez Faire Economy react to this type situation?

A totally free, Laissez Faire economy would almost certainly not have the value of money increasing at 35% a year.  That's too fast.  Calculation becomes very difficult. It would be almost as disruptive as having value of money going down 35% a year - something I fear we will all experience in the very near future.

In a free economy, gold and silver would almost certainly be the basis of money. At least that is how it has worked for the past 6,000 years or so.  If the value of gold and silver was going up 35% a year, there would be a powerful incentive for new investments in mines, and in a few years there would be a lot of new gold and silver entering the market, which would help slow the rapid rise.

This process happens even in our decidedly un-free command and control crony capitalism brand of fascism.  Adjustments in the amounts invested in oil, gas, gold, copper, etc. happen long before the price signal is as overpowering as 35% a year.  At 5% a year lots of people notice, and their reactions help prevent the 35% per year catastrophe from ever developing.

As for
Quote
If I borrow a Dollar today, expecting me to pay back even the same Dollar two years from now amounts to extreme usury.
  two points.

First, that is a judgment. If you don't like the deal, don't sign the note, don't take the loan. You're probably right that not many people would take that deal - unless they believed that the value of money would NOT continue to rise at 35% a year.  They might borrow that money to invest it in a gold mine.

Second, ursury is a nasty word used by people who don't understand or don't like the outcomes of the free market.  Interest is just the market's price for the time value of money.  When the market places a high premium on the time value of money, central planners, busybodies, rent-seekers, and other morally questionable if not outright criminal classes use the rhetoric of "ursury" to encite mob violence. 

That's all it is, and polite people don't use the word. In the context of a question about economic theory it can be excused, but be very cautious in other venues.

Quote
I'd get a higher return hanging on to my Dollar.

So where would Investment Capital come from?

The answer precedes the question. Investment capital always comes from savings.  There is no escape.  Money printing gives the appearance of new investment capital, but it is a deliberate falsehood.  Investment capital requires resources to be saved rather than consumed, so that they may be employed to produce new items that consumers desire. 

In the extreme situation where the value of money is increasing 35% a year,  there would be powerful incentives to save money, whether in bank vaults or in the back garden.  The savings, combined with the relatively few people willing to take out loans, means there would be limited capital available for investment.

Consumers would be willing to save for a while, but the law of marginal utility eventually comes into play.  When you have $10,000 saved, the value of another $1,000 might be very high to you, and you would gladly forgo purchasing a new house or a new car to save that money.  But once you have saved say $100,000, and your car is 15 years old, you are much more likely to be willing to spend $1,000 on a new luxury car.  Since money's value has been skyrocketing for years, $1,000 would probably buy a very nice new car, maybe more than one.

At least some entrepreneurs would have anticipated your desires, and will have invested their own savings, perhaps pooled with that of investors, in making the factory that can assemble and deliver a car to you for only $1,000.  The old factories that required $20,000 to do the job have long since gone bankrupt.  But the market automatically adjusts. 

This process may sound complicated, and in some ways it is, but the beauty of it is that it happens spontaneously, simply by everyone pursuing their own interests.  New York City has just enough bread every day, even though there isn't any wheat grown within scores of miles.  Boston has oil and gas even though the pipelines are thousands of miles long and take decades to build.  California has electricity despite decades of concerted sabotage by evil people.  The system is remarkably resilient, and works tolerably well even when hobbled by horrendous amounts of government violence.

Alas, I fear we are about to learn some of the limits.  The combined weight of a full century of relentless violence against free markets, entrepreneurs, and the productive class, combined with money printing on a scale unprecedented in all of human history, may bring about a major collapse.

The market will rise from those ashes, faster than you can believe possible, but there will be a great deal of misery and needless destruction in the process.  It has already begun.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: RVM45 on July 21, 2013, 10:29:28 am
Thank You.

That clears it up some.

Gold and Silver make sense, but "Money" tends to become highly abstruse and abstract.

I expect that much of that is deliberate obfuscation.

{O, and about the 35%I find that extreme cases often bring the underlying principles to light. Not always though...}

Bear with me a moment.

As I understand it, the States have the rightunder The Constitutionto print their own Currency.

{Yeah, yeah, what good is The Constitution if you can't force The Powers That Be to abide by it?} 

But let's say that several States decided that they were going to print their own Currency and TPTB didn't feel there was a prudent way to quash the idea...

At least not at that point in time.

Lets further suppose that the State's used their imaginations.

Some Currency was backed by Gold, some by Silver, Some by Platinum, others by Nickel, Thorium or Osmium.

Theoretically, in a Bi-Metal economy, one metal will come to be vastly preferred to another...

But my reading convinced me that a True Bi-Metal Economy has never been tried for any length of time, so it is all speculative.

{If I may throw in a Wee-Bit of a digression:

William Jennings Bryant ranted about "Crucifying the Common Man on a Cross of Gold."

The only sense that I can make of this is that he didn't think the "Common Man" should be required to use Capital in order to get out of Debt or to start an Enterpriselike a Family Farm for instance.

But anyway, Bryant wanted TPTB to print unlimited amounts of Silver at the rate of 30:1.

A.} It seems that pouring Silver Dollars into circulation would be a form of Inflationthough with inherent limits that wouldn't apply to Fiat Inflation.

I read that the European Economy was inflated by the Aztec and Inca Gold and Silver for Over a Century...

B.} Where does TPTB get the Capital to buy all this Silver from its rightful owners?

Are Silver Miners going to Donate Silver to the Government?

Was Jennings just 100% full of Shit?}

At any ratecan you elucidate the consequences of a Multi-Metal Economy?


.....RVM45            :mellow::thumbsup::mellow:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 21, 2013, 12:55:35 pm
Was Jennings just 100% full of Shit?}


Yes. Williams Jennings Bryan was full of shit. He was a shill for silver mining interests and believed in endless inflation as a means to increase the power of the state.

Quote
The presidential election of 1896 was a great national referendum on the gold standard. The Democratic Party had been captured, at its 1896 convention, by the Populist, ultra-inflationist, anti-gold forces, headed by William Jennings Bryan. The older Democrats, who had been fiercely devoted to hard money and the gold standard, either stayed home on election day or voted, for the first time in their lives, for the hated Republicans.
Rothbard, History of Money and Banking in the United States (http://library.mises.org/books/Murray%20N%20Rothbard/History%20of%20Money%20and%20Banking%20in%20the%20United%20States%20The%20Colonial%20Era%20to%20World%20War%20II.pdf), page 187.

Bryan destroyed the Democratic party that was libertarian, hard money, and fiercely opposed to the federal power so loved by Lincolnite Republicans.  What was left metastasized into the monstrosity we know as the Democratic party today.

I'll address some of the other many excellent questions in a later post.

Peace,

Silverr
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 22, 2013, 06:50:19 am
As I understand it, the States have the rightunder The Constitutionto print their own Currency.

I don't think that is correct.  Article 1 Section 8 of that neglected document states
Quote
To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

Congress, not the states, has the power to COIN money, not to print it. 

"Regulate" in this context is the same as "well-regulated" in the 2nd Amendment, it means to keep the coinage sound, of known weight and purity.

The Constitution does  not give Congress the authority to delegate their coinage power, so the entire Federal Reserve is blatantly unconstitutional.  I view this as an object lesson; the constitution is a worthless goddamned piece of paper, to paraphrase a recent president.  Expecting legislators to respect written limits on their power, or courts to enforce the explicit language of a clearly written document is foolish. 

But for our discussion here, states cannot coin or print money.  Several states have passed meaningless resolutions stating that they will accept gold and/or silver as money.  In practice, none of them have erected payment systems or other necessary structures to do so.  It is pure posturing, pandering to the rubes.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: eyeon on July 23, 2013, 10:49:35 am
But my reading convinced me that a True Bi-Metal Economy has never been tried for any length of time, so it is all speculative.

...

William Jennings Bryant ranted about "Crucifying the Common Man on a Cross of Gold."

It's worth digressing here into a little history, which I'm going to skim over very cursorily.


Firstly, there are at least two meanings that can be ascribed to "bi-metal", and they've both been tried.  First, there's the case where two (or more) metals (or better, "monies", though in such cases they've generally been metals, but technically what we care about is the monies) circulate side by side at whatever they're valued at.  That's been the case all over the place in pretty much ever period of history.  Heck, it's sorta the case now; dollars and euros circulate side by side, at whatever their relative (wildly manipulated and colluded and backstabbed and double-backstabbed etc) values are.

Nothing particularly remarkable; you've just got 2 (3, 4, 6378) different possible monies out there.  The list generally doesn't grow too big, because nobody selling anything wants to try and keep track of a hundred (or even a dozen) different currencies and what they're worth to try and price their goods.  More than 2 or 3 doesn't generally work very well, unless their relative values are very consistent.  Which, over historical time, gold and silver generally were, which is why they worked floating together for a long time.


But then there's the second meaning of "bi-metal" currency, which is what is generally meant by economics or historians talking about "bimetallism", and that's when the exchange rate is fixed between the two.  And that was the case through much of the US's history; the currency was backed by both silver and gold, in a fixed ratio.

For instance, we start out with the Coinage Act of 1792 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinage_Act_of_1792), where the Eagle (16 grams of gold) was defined as $10, and there was also the Dollar (24.1 grams of silver) at $1.  Which means that there was a defined ratio just slightly over 15:1 for the price of gold vs. silver.  And that ratio was chosen not arbitrarily, but because it reflected the reality of relative valuation existing.

At the time.  But there's no magical reason why that (or any) fixed ratio is Right(tm) forever and anon.  Gold and silver are no different in concept than wheat and sugar; they're two different commodities that are going to fluctuate in value relative to each other.  Come 1834, another Coinage Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinage_Act_of_1834) gets passed changing the ratio to 16:1, making gold relatively more valuable (or silver relatively less valuable).  Of course, this was intended more as manipulation of the form of money in use than changing to reflect current realistic relative valuation...

But at any rate, a fixed ratio is obviously unrealistic, and will lead to constant problems as the real values fluctuate (x-ref Gresham's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law)).  So a bimetallistic system just means that, as with any price-fixing scheme, the item forcibly priced above its market value will be sold a lot, and the one priced below its market value will be hoarded.


And it's against this background you have to put William Jennings Bryan.  In the mid-late 19th century, a lot of silver was discovered in the West, which means that there was a massive increase in the amount of silver around.  And that means that, all else being equal (which it never is, but in this case is close enough) the value of each bit of it dropped.  But the "price" of silver was legally fixed by bimetallism, which means that the result is inflation as the number of "dollars" trended way upward due to the great influx of silver.  But since the "dollar" was also a defined weight of gold, which wasn't increasing massively in supply and so wasn't decreasing in market value, you've got problems...

And this led to a large group of people on one side making the relative sound economic argument (though for unsound selfish screw-the-economy reasons, of course) that bimetallism is a freakin' stupid idea and we should dump it and just base the dollar on gold, and a large group on the other side saying that was a great idea, except we should base it on silver (and thus continue the inflation) instead.  And that's where Bryan falls; as a loud spokesmouth for one side of that argument.

Well, that side lost.  And so in 1900, for the first time in US history, the country actually was on a gold standard.  The dollar was a certain weight of gold, and that was that.  Silver was still commonly used, but theoretically floated against gold at whatever its value was.  Of course, the gold standard didn't last long; it was suspended (i.e., bankruptcy declared) during World War I, sorta resumed afterward, then mostly suspended in the 30's (except for settlement with foreign powers/central banks) and finally killed off in the 70's.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 23, 2013, 11:47:36 am
Excellent summary.  Thank you.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on July 23, 2013, 12:04:51 pm
Outstanding work, gentlemen.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 23, 2013, 12:06:33 pm
Eyeon's excellent summary is spot on, I want to amplify one point in response to RVM45's question"
Quote
At any ratecan you elucidate the consequences of a Multi-Metal Economy?

In a free market economy, consumers are free to use any and all commodities they desire as a medium of exchange, aka money.  But consumers, merchants, and producers quickly tire of the complexity and uncertainties.  Remember, entrepreneurs and producers must estimate the future value of goods and services, including that of the commodity used as money.  It's hard enough to do that in terms of one commodity, growing towards impossible with multiple units of measure.

So in a free market, one commodity inevitably comes to dominate.  When gold is available, it always wins.  When gold is not available, silver generally wins.  When both are not available or in extremely short supply (as in Colonial America) whiskey, tobacco, and other commodities dominate in local markets.

What happens in a free market is that if there are multiple commodities competing for use as money, and gold (or silver) wins, then immediately the market responds by setting up money changers.  They swap one commodity for another, taking a percentage as their profit.  This adds costs, but only to those with the less-preferred commodities.

Euros and FRNs are both money, but try buying a hamburger in the US with Euro notes.  You can't; you have to go to a bank or money changer first.

So free markets will cope with as many commodities used for money as desired, but they do so by quickly settling on ONE preferred commodity, and imposing extra costs on those who want to use the less favored commodities.

In a command-and-control economy none of this works, and as Eyeon points out, the attempt to defy the laws of economics produces inevitable hoarding of the more valuable and use of the less valuable commodity.  The costs are hidden but paid by all victims of the government's violent interventions in the market.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 23, 2013, 12:15:32 pm
Quote
Where does TPTB get the Capital to buy all this Silver from its rightful owners?

Are Silver Miners going to Donate Silver to the Government?

They get it the same way all governents everywhere get anything - they steal it.

This particular violence is called "Seigniorage."  The government buys the monetary metal at some fixed rate, which may or may not be the market rate.  They coin that metal and distribute it.  They use coercion and violence to prevent any honest competition.

The coins have a face value that is greater than the market value of the metal in the coin.  If silver's market price is $20 per ounce, the government might pay silver producers $20, then mint a one-ounce silver coin with a face value of $25.  Their costs of minting the coin are a small fraction of a dollar.  The rest is profit.

In a free economy, multiple mint owners would compete for silver from producers, and would be compelled to pay the market price.  The usual system of hedges, bulk purchases, long-term sales agreements, insurance, futures, speculators, etc. evolve.  But ultimately the silver will be sold to those who bid the highest.

The successful mint owner then produces silver coins.  They sell these into the marketplace, not with a face value, but with a fixed amount e.g. 1 troy ounce.  Their mint mark and their reputation give the consumer confidence that the coin in sound and contains the stated amount of metal.  The consumer pays a small premium over the market price for bulk silver to get the coin. Why?  Because the coin is worth more the consumer than a lump or bar of silver, which must be weighed and assayed at each transaction.

So silver miners don't donate to the government.  Government does what it always does, the only thing it can do: it uses coercion and violence to advance its own goals.  In the case of coinage, it threatens to beat, imprison, or murder would-be competitors, and charges grossly inflated prices compared to what any competent free-market actor would be able to ask.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 23, 2013, 12:22:29 pm
Outstanding work, gentlemen.
It is great to see you here!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on December 13, 2013, 06:49:43 pm
What a difference 10 1/2 months make.

In late January of this year, the evil Fed had created scrip to the tune of 2,800 billion FRNs.
My post on January 30 (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.msg401204#msg401204) noted that "2,800 billion, well over 3 times the total available in early 2008.  The rate of increase is rapid, and there's little reason to expect it to slow."

They've been creating money ever since, at a rate never before seen in human history.  In just one year a cool Trillion FRNs, that's Trillion with a "T,", 1,000,000,000,000 thefts from savers, widows, and orphans, with the true wealth transferred to the 0.01% that make up the ruling class.



Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on December 14, 2013, 09:42:20 am
Geeze Silver, that graph at the bottom of your last post depicted a most impressive theft. I posted this at my websites:

The federal reserve is a private corporation owned by several large international banks.

They print money and loan it out to the federal government, corporations and people.

The graph below shows how many dollars were in the world in 1997.

Then it shows how many the federal reserve banks gave themselves to loan out taking notes for collateral (our homes, our businesses, national debt, etc.) in exchange for the money they printed.

How hard is it to recognize theft when it is huge?

How about when it overwhelms the imagination?

The St. Louis Fed publishes it,

and we still dont believe it.

(http://www.bitterrootbugle.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2007-13-Monetary-base.jpg)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on February 18, 2014, 12:28:49 pm
China Sold Second-Largest Amount Ever Of US Treasurys In December: And Guess Who Comes To The Rescue
 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-18/china-sells-second-largest-amount-us-treasurys-december-and-guess-who-comes-rescue)
The giant flushing sound you hear is the US dollar.

In December, China dumped 48 billion of them.  Japan also sold.

But foreign holdings of US paper actually went up!  Who in the world could buy so much debt from the Chinese and Japanese?  What economic powerhouse would have so much surplus that they would think it worthwhile to buy 48 billion Treasury notes?

Belgium.  I kid you not.  Belgium bought $55 billion worth.
Belgium, seat of the EU.  Belgium, with a GDP of $420 billion, bought US debt to the tune of 13% of their entire economy's annual production of goods and services - in one freaking month!

There's clearly some central-bank mutual backscratching going on here.  Belgium can't keep up that rate of purchase, and the Chinese have another 1,200 billion in fedgov debt to sell.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 18, 2014, 01:00:43 pm
I wonder what Belgium was promised.  I can't imagine the EU is smacking their lips to buy US debt.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Lonewolf72 on February 18, 2014, 04:14:27 pm
I wonder what Belgium was promised.  I can't imagine the EU is smacking their lips to buy US debt.


Why not? It could easily be used as leverage for a forced conversion to the Euro, and equally as leverage for a more unified world gov't. :thrbarf:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on February 18, 2014, 08:55:18 pm
I don't believe any complex explanation or (new) conspiracy is warranted.

If 50 gigafrns are dumped on the market and no one buys them, it could easily start a run for the exits.
Even if buyers are found, the excess supply, on top of the already stupendous torrent of new debt created every month (roughly 85 gigafrns) would tend to push prices lower.

But the Belgian central bank can create money from thin air just as easily as the US fed, so why not sweep up China's repudiation and  hope that no one notices?  It's a good bet that most people will not.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. " - attributed to Henry Ford

I have no idea why Belgium and not France, Germany, UK, or some other US puppet.  We'll see who gets a turn in the barrel next month.


Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on February 18, 2014, 10:36:11 pm
If 50 gigafrns are dumped on the market and no one buys them

Where else on the planet could you find this phrase?
... and understand it?

The handful who do will be more emotionally and physically stable than the 99.95% who don't.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on February 19, 2014, 04:16:25 am
Kazakhstan devalued its currency 19% last week.  This report claims that people are growing indignant, shops are closed, food running short, and APCs and Humvees line the street of the commercial capital, Almalty.  The seat of government in Kazakhstan is a Potemkin village called Astana.

Wait a minute.  Humvees?  Alongside Russian BTRs?  A closer inspection suggests that all the vehicles in the linked video are Russian-made.  The sad thing is that I had to double-check; it was just as easy to believe the US military was involved.

Kazakhstan exports billions of dollars in oil and gas every year, but the dictator in charge steals pretty much all of that.  Kazak consumers are dependent on imports for things ranging from cars, electronics, and medical supplies to food and other staples.  The price of imports just shot up 20% for holders of Tenge, Kazakstan's currency.  That means many small shop owners, who don't have large cash reserves, can't pay for new merchandise.  Instant shortages ensue.

This happened literally overnight.  Things happen fast, even when they don't get much attention.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on February 19, 2014, 08:07:36 am

In Kazakhstan, three main issues: economic, social, and Jew.
(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRBS5P0EnhVAnQIs2m-LTX1bu7ZUm7rKGDvWVqCCae2Dy6lQAU_)



Seriously though, that's scary stuff. It all starts with the small countries, then the tidal wave envelopes everything.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 19, 2014, 12:39:14 pm
DL

I make absolutely no claim of being a "worldly" person even with having actually been in four EU countries (Turkey is part of the EU isn't it? See?) but I really don't understand the image you used with your post.

I seek enlightenment please?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on February 19, 2014, 12:42:48 pm
DL

I make absolutely no claim of being a "worldly" person even with having actually been in four EU countries (Turkey is part of the EU isn't it? See?) but I really don't understand the image you used with your post.

I seek enlightenment please?
  :laugh: :laugh: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

This should enlighten you- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borat


Just my silly side making light of a serious issue. :dontknow:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on February 19, 2014, 12:51:18 pm
Odd thing happened to me a couple days ago - walked into my credit union to cash a check and the teller asked if I really wanted it all back in cash.  "All cash?  You don't want to deposit any of it?"

The check was for $85.  This was not some mega bank, just our local credit union.  Only two of them in the area.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 19, 2014, 01:04:50 pm
DL

I make absolutely no claim of being a "worldly" person even with having actually been in four EU countries (Turkey is part of the EU isn't it? See?) but I really don't understand the image you used with your post.

I seek enlightenment please?
  :laugh: :laugh: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

This should enlighten you- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borat


Just my silly side making light of a serious issue. :dontknow:

Ah .. I see ... he said blindly.
FYI ...
I have no TV, am on a dial up connection which precludes the viewing of videos both of which makes me "depraved" I do suppose.  :dontknow:

"I am depraved on account that I am deprived." Leonard Bernstein - Westside Story
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 19, 2014, 01:22:02 pm
Odd thing happened to me a couple days ago - walked into my credit union to cash a check and the teller asked if I really wanted it all back in cash.  "All cash?  You don't want to deposit any of it?"

The check was for $85.  This was not some mega bank, just our local credit union.  Only two of them in the area.

Yeah... we only have two banks in town, both small independent types. (Wish we had a credit union.) My little pension has to be "direct deposited" now, so I have an account in one of them. Each month I go take out all the cash. They have finally stopped asking me if I really want to do that. :)

Oh, but last month the girl looked at my account and said, "You haven't written any checks this month." I smiled and said, "I haven't written any checks in a good number of years." She just looked even more confused.  Poor child. Probably has half a million in debts between a house, car, college loans, credit cards to the max, etc. I told a different one that I had no debts at all, and had never had any credit card debt... her eyes about fell out of her head.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: da gooch on February 19, 2014, 02:16:45 pm
Odd thing happened to me a couple days ago - walked into my credit union to cash a check and the teller asked if I really wanted it all back in cash.  "All cash?  You don't want to deposit any of it?"

The check was for $85.  This was not some mega bank, just our local credit union.  Only two of them in the area.

Yep.
The amount was different but exactly the same question.
I was cashing a check for a spot/odd job drawn on that bank and she wanted me to "deposit" some of the amount. I told her I have an account elsewhere and yes I do want all of the amount in cash.

Odd thing happened to me a couple days ago - walked into my credit union to cash a check and the teller asked if I really wanted it all back in cash.  "All cash?  You don't want to deposit any of it?"

The check was for $85.  This was not some mega bank, just our local credit union.  Only two of them in the area.

Yeah... we only have two banks in town, both small independent types. (Wish we had a credit union.) My little pension has to be "direct deposited" now, so I have an account in one of them. Each month I go take out all the cash. They have finally stopped asking me if I really want to do that. :)

Oh, but last month the girl looked at my account and said, "You haven't written any checks this month." I smiled and said, "I haven't written any checks in a good number of years." She just looked even more confused.  Poor child. Probably has half a million in debts between a house, car, college loans, credit cards to the max, etc. I told a different one that I had no debts at all, and had never had any credit card debt... her eyes about fell out of her head.

I write one check a month. The lot rent payment is my only check.
Four times a year I send a check to the insurance company. So 16 per year?

Most of the younger crowd have no idea of the possibilities of losing their savings even while it sits in the bank. "Cyprus" can happen anywhere.

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on February 19, 2014, 04:24:15 pm
Kazakhstan devalued its currency 19% last week.  This report claims that people are growing indignant, shops are closed, food running short, and APCs and Humvees line the street of the commercial capital, Almalty.  The seat of government in Kazakhstan is a Potemkin village called Astana.

Wait a minute.  Humvees?  Alongside Russian BTRs?  A closer inspection suggests that all the vehicles in the linked video are Russian-made.  The sad thing is that I had to double-check; it was just as easy to believe the US military was involved.

Kazakhstan exports billions of dollars in oil and gas every year, but the dictator in charge steals pretty much all of that.  Kazak consumers are dependent on imports for things ranging from cars, electronics, and medical supplies to food and other staples.  The price of imports just shot up 20% for holders of Tenge, Kazakstan's currency.  That means many small shop owners, who don't have large cash reserves, can't pay for new merchandise.  Instant shortages ensue.

This happened literally overnight.  Things happen fast, even when they don't get much attention.

Peace,

Silver
Sorry. Mighta unintentionally derailed ya there. :laugh: Let's bring it back up to the top. It's worth talking about.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on February 22, 2014, 07:32:08 am
Odd thing happened to me a couple days ago - walked into my credit union to cash a check and the teller asked if I really wanted it all back in cash.  "All cash?  You don't want to deposit any of it?"

The check was for $85.  This was not some mega bank, just our local credit union.  Only two of them in the area.

Yeah... we only have two banks in town, both small independent types. (Wish we had a credit union.) My little pension has to be "direct deposited" now, so I have an account in one of them. Each month I go take out all the cash. They have finally stopped asking me if I really want to do that. :)

Oh, but last month the girl looked at my account and said, "You haven't written any checks this month." I smiled and said, "I haven't written any checks in a good number of years." She just looked even more confused.  Poor child. Probably has half a million in debts between a house, car, college loans, credit cards to the max, etc. I told a different one that I had no debts at all, and had never had any credit card debt... her eyes about fell out of her head.

Yeah I am much that way too.  I have started keeping a minimal deposit in the bank.  Most of my "Cash" is where I can get to it without the need to walk into any institutions on the hook of the govt......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on February 23, 2014, 02:37:14 pm
My ATM/MC was hacked, but the bank caught the attempted fraud before it went through.
I've decided to stop being lazy and work more with cash, and to minimize the use of the
ATM card. Each payday I'll draw money from the ATM for my usual purchases, and slowly
accumulate more cash at home. :/

I should have started doing this sooner.

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on February 23, 2014, 03:11:45 pm
My ATM/MC was hacked, but the bank caught the attempted fraud before it went through.
I've decided to stop being lazy and work more with cash, and to minimize the use of the
ATM card. Each payday I'll draw money from the ATM for my usual purchases, and slowly
accumulate more cash at home. :/

I should have started doing this sooner.

Bear
That's what I do too. I only keep enough $ in the bank to cover about 1 1/2 months of usual bills. (mortgage, power, cable....etc...etc...) As for cash, I don't keep it all at home. What IS at home, is either in a safe, or a slew of "creative" hiding spots. Sometimes it's hard for even ME to remember where and find my stashes. :laugh: Some of my stashes are for a specific purpose. One stash for PM's. One stash for emergencies. Vehicle repairs. "Tools". Stuff to feed the "tools". Storage food.....etc....etc....
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 27, 2014, 09:06:29 am
Bill Bonner picks up the meme that I used to start this thread (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.msg242002#msg242002) nearly 6 years ago.

How This Central Bank Bubble Ends (http://www.bonnerandpartners.com/how-this-central-bank-bubble-ends/)

Quote
We promised to explain how it ends. The world, that is. The world we live in now. The one in the middle of a rapidly inflating central bank bubble.

First, we need to understand that this is a very different world from the world of the 19th and early 20th centuries. It is a world where central bankers play a role somewhere between con artists, mad scientists and God Himself.

They deceive and cheat. They conduct their experiments without any real idea how they will affect people. And they move almost every price in the world sending investors, householders and business people all running in one direction.

Their experiments change not only prices quoted on the Big Board and the supermarket. They also change the physical world. Jobs are lost to machines that without such low interest rates would not have been built.

Monetary Fantasy

Those in the 1% are only as rich as they are today thanks to the Feds manipulations. Americas super-sized houses also are largely the result of the Feds 2002-07 real estate bubble. And many a mansion has been built in Aspen or the Hamptons with money from Wall Street bonuses, which wouldnt have been possible without central bankers grand designs.

And China is the way it is today with its gleaming towers, its mega-factories, its empty cities and clogged roads largely because US officials made it easy for Americans to buy things they didnt need with money they didnt have.

Central bankers along with central governments have created a kind of monetary fantasy which depends on ever increasing amounts of credit.

But where can all this new money go? Real output cant keep up with it. So prices must adjust. In the event, they bubble up first one market, then another first one sector, then another

And after the bubble, what?

The bust!

Thats what were waiting for. A bust in the biggest debt bubble of all time.

When the credit inflation ball bounces off the ceiling, it produces an equal and opposite reaction in the other direction. Asset prices fall. This is deflation. It begins with asset prices and then makes its way into consumer prices.

There's more at the link, and another installment promised for tomorrow.

I thought the point about cheap credit enabling investments in machinery and automation that would not have been justified otherwise was a good one.  Machines are expensive; it only makes sense to buy a $1 million machine to replace a few $20/hour workers if the cost of the capital is close to zero.  In a free market, the cost of capital is probably closer to 5 or 10%, not the sub-1% forced upon us by the Fed.

The next time someone complains that they got laid off because of a robot or other automation, explain to them that the Federal Reserve is the real culprit! 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 16, 2014, 11:27:34 am
Inflation is starting to show.  The producer Price Index (PPI) measures the selling price factories receive for their goods.  Few factories sell direct to consumers, and much of the PPI data comes from factories making goods that are later incorporated into other goods.  Think small electric motors that are put into washing machines, dishwashers, etc.

So the PPI often signals inflation months before consumers see the prices of goods and services rising.

Now anyone who buys food, gasoline, or electricity knows that prices are already rising, and have been for years.  Electricity costs twice what it did 10 years ago for most people.

But the PPI jumped 0.5 per cent in March, and 0.6 in April.  That's 1.1 percent in just 2 freaking months!  Keep that up for a year, and producer prices will have jumped 7 percent.

All of this is showing despite the grotesquely rigged figures on consumer prices, GDP, etc.  Large price increases are coming, the inevitable result of creating trillions of new FRNs over the past 6 years.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 17, 2014, 06:47:40 am
Indeed it is.  My father (small business owner, hauls livestock and grain) is really noticing the increase in equipment costs.  Whether it is his big rig tractors, the slew of parts required for periodic repairs, even the oil filters, everything is going up.  He mentioned to me last week that if anything goes wrong with one of the trucks it is a guaranteed $2000 fix.  Used to be less than $1000 a couple years ago.  And he does 90% of the repairs himself; can't afford to do it any other way.  He is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy all the time.  The stress of this madness is starting to take its toll.

And what does the establishment do?  Go in front of the cameras and spout that all those evil rich people need to "pay their fair share!"

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on May 17, 2014, 04:05:24 pm
Just so far this year, two of the companies that I subcontract from have gone belly up. I found out about the second one today. It's crazy!! Both of the companies had been in business for over 30 years! I'm doing ok......for now..... I don't know for how much longer though. Cashing out my 401k to fund the move to greener pastures is looking more and more attractive every quarter. I don't know how much longer anybody will have the money to afford home improvements in this area. I'm honestly flabberghasted right now. :skeptical:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on May 18, 2014, 01:12:53 am
My wife and I had dinner with my sister and her husband tonight, and we talked
about a great many things. One that stood out was that my brother in law said
he knew of at least a dozen businesses in California where the owner closed their
doors. Some scaled back their businesses to what could be done by the owner alone
without any employees, while others have pulled an "Atlas Shrugged" and just quit
working. These are all, talented, successful people that have gotten tired of putting
up with the regulatory state and quit conventional business.

One of his contacts had a high end auto dealership that employed 80 people. Gone.

The State of California has killed the goose that laid the  golden egg.

Bear

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on May 18, 2014, 03:43:32 am
Inflation is starting to show.  The producer Price Index (PPI) measures the selling price factories receive for their goods.  Few factories sell direct to consumers, and much of the PPI data comes from factories making goods that are later incorporated into other goods.  Think small electric motors that are put into washing machines, dishwashers, etc.

So the PPI often signals inflation months before consumers see the prices of goods and services rising.

Now anyone who buys food, gasoline, or electricity knows that prices are already rising, and have been for years.  Electricity costs twice what it did 10 years ago for most people.

But the PPI jumped 0.5 per cent in March, and 0.6 in April.  That's 1.1 percent in just 2 freaking months!  Keep that up for a year, and producer prices will have jumped 7 percent.

All of this is showing despite the grotesquely rigged figures on consumer prices, GDP, etc.  Large price increases are coming, the inevitable result of creating trillions of new FRNs over the past 6 years.

Peace,

Silver

Over 5 years I have watch bulk cheese go from 10$per 5 lb brick to 18$,  Taters go from 3$ to 5$,  Ground beef, lean 10 lbs 10$ to 16$ that averages out to....... OMG 35% inflation on staples!  I was expecting it to be in the teens.  Guess what folks serious inflation is here and the stock market, floating on a sea of cheesy money is a false indicator!  I am glad I have been getting metal and other durable and necessary tradeables with my $ for the last year or so..........
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 20, 2014, 12:17:02 pm
If the average inflation rate is 10% (roughly what John Williams as shadowstats.com reports) then after 5 years one would expect prices to have increased by about 60%, to 160% of their original price.

Which is about what you report.

So with 10% inflation, reported by the fedgov as 2% inflation, you get:

0 years   100%
5 years   160%
10 years  260%
15 years  420%
20 years  675%

Imagine what will happen when the fedgov is reporting 7 or 8% inflation, and the actual number is closer to 16%:

5 years  210%
10 years 440%
15 years 925%
20 years 1959% prices increase nearly 20-fold in 20 years!

Saving FRNs for anything more than short-term emergency cash is a sucker bet.  The stock market is a shark tank and small investors are the chum.  Saving metals and other commodities is all that we small fry have left for long-term savings.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: RVM45 on May 21, 2014, 03:36:46 pm
I don't know why this works, but it does.

Inflation (or anything else) is increasing 10% per year.

How long until it is 200%?

Divide 10% into 70= 7 years

Inflation is 16.7 %

70/16.7= 4.9165 years until it has doubled.

It works with any compounding rate with any time period.

Inflation is .005 % per day?

70/.005=14000 days until it has doubled=38.3561 years.

It sometimes comes in handy to know this.


.....RVM45             :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 21, 2014, 05:33:57 pm
Yeah, that's handy.  It's called the rule of 72 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72) (or 70, or 69) and it is plenty close enough for most estimating purposes.  If you need exact dollars and cents, use a spreadsheet.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on May 24, 2014, 09:26:01 am
Okay, math was never my strong suit..... add in the typo and I (still) miscalculated badly..  I also forgot to mention Ice Cream which some brands have repackaged into 1.5 litters shaped to look like the 1/2 gallon packages on the shelf and it didn't change the price at all.....  A 25% mark up. 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on May 24, 2014, 09:47:21 am
  A 25% mark up.

Not at all. Remember that the value of the money is what has been reduced. The supply chain doesn't make more money from the decreased sizes or the increased prices. EVERYBODY but government (and favored cronies) loses. I seriously doubt that the ice cream manufacturer is among the chosen recipients of the theft.  The actual profit margin for most such business is slim, and getting slimmer.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 28, 2014, 09:21:40 am
I'm old enough to remember the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.  The same thing happened then. 

Candy bars were an interesting example.  You used to be able to buy a very decent sized candy bar for a silver dime, or even a nickel. 

By the 1970s, the candy bar makers were being squeezed by inflation.  They started cutting the size of the candy bars.  Everyone howled about it.

Eventually the candy bars got ridiculously small and many people stopped buying them.  The candy bar makers let this persist for several months.  This created a pent-up demand; people wanted their candy bars, but were not satisfied with the bite-sized morsel on offer for a dime.

So the candy bar makers introduced "giant sized" bars - sold for a quarter, not a dime.  They were only about twice as big as the too-small ones, but by now people were willing to pay the higher price to get their candy.

Fast forward, and those same candy bars now cost three quarters or a dollar.  The dollar, like the dime, is a major psychological barrier.  People will balk at paying more than a dollar for their candy bars - for a little while.

I stopped eating candy many years ago, so I can watch the swearing at vending machines and listen to the coffee pot conversations with interest and amusement.

ML has it exactly right; it is the money, not the greedy businesses.  Greed hasn't gotten any worse in the past 40 years, but the money gets worse all the time, and has been since before 1971.

In the late 1960s a silver quarter bought just over 1 gallon of gasoline.  Today the melt value of that silver quarter is $3.443, and the price of regular in the same market is $3.377.  A silver quarter still buys just over 1 gallon of gasoline after 50 years.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 28, 2014, 11:19:39 am
In the late 1960s a silver quarter bought just over 1 gallon of gasoline.  Today the melt value of that silver quarter is $3.443, and the price of regular in the same market is $3.377.  A silver quarter still buys just over 1 gallon of gasoline after 50 years.

Funny.  I had a very similar conversation this past weekend with a friend who I convinced to start buying 'junk' silver.  Used the exact same example (although I didn't call out the melt value being $3.443 - just stated this it was "over $3").  Think I'll email him with these more precise numbers...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on May 29, 2014, 09:27:34 am
In 1963, I could pay a nickel for a small candy bar, or a (silver) dime for a large candy bar (or a penny for a small Tootsie Roll). My allowance was 50 cents a week, which would buy 5 large candy bars (or two 25-cent full-sized frozen pies at Safeway). When it was time for my kids' allowance, in 2000 or thereabouts, a large candy bar went for a dollar, so I decided that they should get $5/week allowance.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 29, 2014, 10:10:06 am
So that's a factor of 10 in about 25 years?  That suggests the average annual price increase is roughly 10% maintained over a full generation. 

The fed claims that something you bought in 1963 for $0.10 could be purchased for $0.39 in 1988, $0.53 in 1998, and $0.70 in 2008.  Damned liars.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on May 30, 2014, 09:02:33 am
Prices for internationally traded wheat (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/world-bank-sounds-alarm-rising-202850180.html#ImKLvVu) jumped 18% in Q1 2014.  Prices for maize (corn) jumped 12 percent.  In three freaking months.

This despite bumper crops in 2013 and projected record grain harvests for 2014.

Ukraine, the breadbasket of Eastern Europe, saw domestic price increases of 73%!!!

Rising food prices were a major factor in the multiple upheavals of late, such as the "Arab Spring."

Meanwhile, the US, largest maize producer on the planet, continues to burn 40% of its crop in a disgraceful, immoral, and pointless sacrifice to the false religion of warmism.  Only 20% of the US crop is exported; twice that amount is diverted away from hungry mouths and into gas tanks using the force of law and truckloads of cash mulcted from taxpayers. 

Ending the tax subsidies and the wasteful destruction of valuable food would help reduce leaping maize prices.  The US produces 40% of the the world's maize crop; if all the US corn diverted to fuel were available for hungry people to eat it would increase global supplies by 15%. 

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on May 30, 2014, 09:23:54 am
Absolutely agree that the ethanol thing is insane. But I'm not so sure that the world's hungry people are better off importing corn or wheat. Maybe so, but the real problems are as always... governments that damage the ability of those people to produce the food they need themselves, whether because of constant warfare, corruption, or any combination of factors beyond the control of ordinary people.

What are they producing to trade for the wheat and corn? How else do they get it? Why not use that energy to feed themselves locally? The shipping alone has to be a killer cost. How did the people of Africa feed themselves before foreign aid?

I don't know the answers, of course... just wondering.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on May 30, 2014, 11:35:21 am
Prices for internationally traded wheat (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/world-bank-sounds-alarm-rising-202850180.html#ImKLvVu) jumped 18% in Q1 2014.  Prices for maize (corn) jumped 12 percent.  In three freaking months.

This despite bumper crops in 2013 and projected record grain harvests for 2014.

Ukraine, the breadbasket of Eastern Europe, saw domestic price increases of 73%!!!

Rising food prices were a major factor in the multiple upheavals of late, such as the "Arab Spring."

Meanwhile, the US, largest maize producer on the planet, continues to burn 40% of its crop in a disgraceful, immoral, and pointless sacrifice to the false religion of warmism.  Only 20% of the US crop is exported; twice that amount is diverted away from hungry mouths and into gas tanks using the force of law and truckloads of cash mulcted from taxpayers. 

Ending the tax subsidies and the wasteful destruction of valuable food would help reduce leaping maize prices.  The US produces 40% of the the world's maize crop; if all the US corn diverted to fuel were available for hungry people to eat it would increase global supplies by 15%. 

Peace,

Silver

+1

My father has dropped most of his trucking of pigs and moved into corn.  He and my brother are currently hauling close to 20,000 bushels of corn a week.  Most of the farmers in the NW area of Iowa are renting their land to the handful of major operations who then build massive corn silos that can hold nearly 750,000 bushels.  This is no longer your mom 'n pop farm.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 19, 2014, 04:11:08 pm
Prices for internationally traded wheat (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/world-bank-sounds-alarm-rising-202850180.html#ImKLvVu) jumped 18% in Q1 2014.  Prices for maize (corn) jumped 12 percent.  In three freaking months!!!

This despite bumper crops in 2013 and projected record grain harvests for 2014.

Ukraine, the breadbasket of Eastern Europe, saw domestic price increases of 73%!!!

Rising food prices were a major factor in the multiple upheavals of late, such as the "Arab Spring."

And as night follows day:

Quote
Prices for meat, poultry and fish have increased an average of eight percent over last year.  Fish prices are up 4.2 percent since last spring while ground beef is up 11 percent and pork is up 9.4 percent. Eggs costs were up 25 percent in early 2014, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The talk is about drought, swine virus, and "weak cattle numbers" whatever that is supposed to mean.  But drought doesn't explain fish or chicken, swine virus has always been with us, and cattle have become too expensive to feed on marginal ranches because the price of fuel, hay, and corn have shot through the freaking roof!

Get ready for more of this.  A lot more.  John Williams of Shadowstats.com is on record with a prediction of a hyperinflationary great depression in 2014.  He points to the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar to a massive sell-off leading to a dollar a panic at any time, a panic that could provide the start-up conditions for a hyperinflation.

Gold exploded almost $42 today.  People are waking up. Gold remains the primary means of  protecting your wealth, along with physical silver.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on June 19, 2014, 04:23:49 pm
Quote
cattle have become too expensive to feed on marginal ranches because the price of fuel, hay, and corn have shot through the freaking roof!

The major reason for many, if not most of these increases is the influence of taxes, regulations and perverse incentives on the entire market.  Very few things are not connected, and the availability or price of one is often very dependent on another. The tax and regulation morass is the "sea that lifts all boats," in a sick, perverted way.

The "marginal ranches" may actually be some of the last ranches left, after the others are made into "national parks," etc.  The first of June I drove 300 miles through the grassland heart of Wyoming. There is no reason why there could not be millions of steers and cows eating the three to four foot tall grass. Hay and corn are not needed much. Sadly, I saw only a few small bunches of cattle on the entire trip.

Somehow, the theft must be stopped.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on June 19, 2014, 04:39:50 pm
Gold exploded almost $42 today.  People are waking up. Gold remains the primary means of  protecting your wealth, along with physical silver.

Peace,

Silver

They are indeed waking up.  A handful of church friends and family members are now asking me about precious metals.  I've steered them all away from gold etf's, silver mining shares, etc.  I told them if you can't hold it in your hand then it isn't yours.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 19, 2014, 08:49:08 pm
My gut instinct is that the next major blow to our day to day lives will be a severe market correction. I've been saying for about a year, that if the DOW goes above 17k for a month or so, the market will crash by perhaps 50%. Will it happen? Damned if I know, but that's what my gut has been telling me. Even though the Dow is hovering around 16,900, I think that the crash will happen in 2015, not this year. Why? 7 year cycles, brother! I'm probably wrong. I'm almost CERTAIN that I'm wrong! But I gotta listen to my gut. Gotta keep preppin'.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 20, 2014, 08:30:44 am
Several things I have noticed in the news lately are starting to make me nervous.  First is the fact that there is increasing notice being taken of the number of illegals crossing the border with diseases.  This gives you your orcs when you think about it.  People sneaking places under cover of darkness taking non-skilled entry level jobs from honest folks and stealing things that are not nailed down.  The second is the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are using the terrorist label on the Tea Party movement.  That label under the patriot act can be used to suspend bill of rights protections on a segment of the population that looks relatively rich and has nice things and are smarter in the view of the "downtrodden" that the political folks cater too.|

Does any one see the nice little one, two punch that makes for so0me one to use.  If I recall correctly in Germany there was something about the Gypsies constantly crossing borders and stealing things and taking jobs, and then the Jews who were smart always seemed to have enough and were in some control of their lives..........
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on June 20, 2014, 02:53:12 pm
Several things I have noticed in the news lately are starting to make me nervous.  First is the fact that there is increasing notice being taken of the number of illegals crossing the border with diseases.  This gives you your orcs when you think about it.  People sneaking places under cover of darkness taking non-skilled entry level jobs from honest folks and stealing things that are not nailed down.  The second is the fact that both the Democrats and Republicans are using the terrorist label on the Tea Party movement.  That label under the patriot act can be used to suspend bill of rights protections on a segment of the population that looks relatively rich and has nice things and are smarter in the view of the "downtrodden" that the political folks cater too.|

Does any one see the nice little one, two punch that makes for so0me one to use.  If I recall correctly in Germany there was something about the Gypsies constantly crossing borders and stealing things and taking jobs, and then the Jews who were smart always seemed to have enough and were in some control of their lives..........
Interesting perspective. Something to think about.....

I'm starting to think that the open border policy is a means to accelerate the founding of the North American Union. The US, Canada, and Mexico, under one central government. It's the next logical step towards a one world government. Although, maybe an orchestrated world-wide market crash to usher in a one world currency is first. Perhaps TPTB are working at both simultaneously.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 20, 2014, 03:39:12 pm
The tax and regulation morass is the "sea that lifts all boats," in a sick, perverted way.

More like the tar pit that is pulling everything down.  After the collapse the fossils, just like those at La Brea, will be instructive to those who survive.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 25, 2014, 09:33:55 am
I am reading a lot about busses moving these folks into the interior.  I think it is about diluting the independent thinkers with more folks who vote for a living.  Also it might be something used to precipitate a "Health scare" with unscreened immigrants moving disease around.   Time to update the shots.......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on June 25, 2014, 10:26:52 am
Not all of us have choosen to vaccinate our children. :)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 26, 2014, 08:57:09 am
Yeah, your gamble, my gamble, welcome to life......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: sharp_shepherd on June 26, 2014, 09:58:38 am
While I understand both sides I am more afraid NOT to vaccinate than anything else.  The Guardacil thing caused a huge discussion and problem when they out it on the mandatory list for the high school.  Let's just say that my girls chose not to get that vaccine.

The illegal immigrant situation can be a serious threat to our nations health.  I think they should be sent back to where they came from and the border fenced and closed.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: bennie on June 26, 2014, 10:05:23 am
The illegal immigrant situation can be a serious threat to our nations health.

It is a serious threat to health and getting worse. I personally see TB really increasing though the immigrant situation.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on June 26, 2014, 10:57:43 am
It is a serious threat to health and getting worse. I personally see TB really increasing though the immigrant situation.

There are many health (and obviously other) concerns and I agree that TB is probably at the top of the list. I think the American people are being deliberately left in the dark about the direness at the border.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 27, 2014, 02:49:28 pm
I see a threat, but not from the immigrants.

The immigrants come here because the US government has set up a system of incentives that rewards them for coming.  They are making rational choices given those incentives.

I don't feel in any way superior to any of these people.  Their accident of birth place was different than mine.  That is all.  I have no more claim to living here than they do.  I can defend the property that I bought and paid for but I don't give a damn about borders drawn on maps by the largest gang of criminals in human history.

The real threat of the immigrants is to the status quo and the elites who profit so very handsomely from that.  Take away the welfare, the freebies, and return to free immigration like we had early in the 20th century.  No handouts.  Then the immigrants who decide to come will be those with ambition and a desire to better themselves.  What we are seeing today is an army of children who have been told that they will be fed and housed by the US government if they make it here.  For many, that proves to be correct.

The diseases they bring are not so different that those that already exist here.  If you are worried about them, take precautions.  Vaccination is just one option.  But protecting yourself and your children is the inalienable responsibility of every free man and woman.  If circumstances change, your protection must change. 

It is immoral to demand the use of violence against people you do not know, who have not harmed or threatened you, just because you fear them.  Your fear is your problem.  Deal with it.  That's part of being free.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Moonbeam on June 27, 2014, 09:25:09 pm
Hi Silver! I'm not sure if this was directed towards me or if you were just making a general statement? Am I afraid of people *different* than me? No. I am concerned about .gov manufacturing yet another distraction at best, or an unnecessary crisis at worst. The two opposing sides are pitied against one another; one side downplaying the influx of people, and the other side sensationalizing the influx of people. 

If true, I find it troubling that border agents have been prohibited from documenting and speaking out about what exactly is happening on our southern border. If true, I am troubled that .gov is spreading the word in South American countries to come to America - or just send your offspring. If true, I am heartbroken that mothers are in such a state of desperation that they are willing to separate from their children, turning them over to some very, very bad "mules" in the hope of something better for their kids. I am impressed how the churches and charities down there are doing their best to meet the needs of those crossing the border. 

This administration continues to poke holes in the dam and I suspect that there are not enough fingers that care or have the strength to keep plugging them.

:)
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 28, 2014, 09:09:57 am
I take all "You's" as generic.   I mostly agree with silver, except for the fact that the elites are going to use the immigration thing, and additional illegal votes, as a lever to ratchet up their power again. with more dependant voter willing to vote for more stealing.......  Everyone posting on this forum is a defacto target of the oligarchs simply because we can read the tea leaves and see thru the smoke and mirrors.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: slidemansailor on June 28, 2014, 10:55:53 am
Excellent post, Silver. I'm with both you and Rarick on this one... except...

There is evidence that the "sudden influx" was engineered and expected by the schemers operating the conman-in-chief and other puppets. I do not think they are going to lose with this strategy - whatever it is they plan to win from it.

World-wide, they are playing horrific divide-and-conquer strategies. They certainly have fueled a large number of factions within the USofA... and continue to add heat under each and every pot they have on the stove.

The one thing they know for sure is that if all of their rape victims recognize them for who they are and what they did, they would be dead before nightfall... hung from the lamp-posts by their silk ties or worse.

Their defensive plan is to keep our numbers and power small by getting us to feel a part of little groups divided by ethnic, religious, political and other subsets. Then keep us jostling among ourselves while they pillage and plunder from each and every one of us. While we jostle over bones and scraps, they continue to live high at the top.

Our best defense is figuring them out and sharing the knowledge.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 28, 2014, 07:40:18 pm
Hi Silver! I'm not sure if this was directed towards me or if you were just making a general statement?

Definitely not directed at you, or any one person.

I don't doubt that this influx has been engineered.  I don't doubt that the elites will use it to increase their power. That's what they do.

But I won't get my panties in a twist because poor people find their way here.  I know they have been lied to; we are all lied to all day, every day.  I know they may serve some other purpose. 

I don't consent to any of it.  I don't consent to national borders, or border patrols, or nations.  If the border patrols are being gagged, that is a good thing.  If they are being confined to quarters, that is even better.  If they are being fired and forced to seek honest work, that is better still.  There is nothing you can tell me about what is being done to government parasites that will elicit a scintilla of sympathy from me.  A pox on them all.

What I will never, ever do is complain about free people making their way in this world.  It doesn't matter what "borders" they cross or how much money they have.  Travel and movement is the birthright of all humans, and I'll be damned if I will speak out against it, no matter the provocation by government parasites or the machinations of the overlords.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Adventurer, Explorer, Inquiring Mind. on June 28, 2014, 07:57:17 pm
Hi Silver! I'm not sure if this was directed towards me or if you were just making a general statement?

Definitely not directed at you, or any one person.

I don't doubt that this influx has been engineered.  I don't doubt that the elites will use it to increase their power. That's what they do.

But I won't get my panties in a twist because poor people find their way here.  I know they have been lied to; we are all lied to all day, every day.  I know they may serve some other purpose. 

I don't consent to any of it.  I don't consent to national borders, or border patrols, or nations.  If the border patrols are being gagged, that is a good thing.  If they are being confined to quarters, that is even better.  If they are being fired and forced to seek honest work, that is better still.  There is nothing you can tell me about what is being done to government parasites that will elicit a scintilla of sympathy from me.  A pox on them all.

What I will never, ever do is complain about free people making their way in this world.  It doesn't matter what "borders" they cross or how much money they have.  Travel and movement is the birthright of all humans, and I'll be damned if I will speak out against it, no matter the provocation by government parasites or the machinations of the overlords.

Peace,

Silver

+1
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 29, 2014, 12:09:41 pm
Hi Silver! I'm not sure if this was directed towards me or if you were just making a general statement?

Definitely not directed at you, or any one person.

I don't doubt that this influx has been engineered.  I don't doubt that the elites will use it to increase their power. That's what they do.

But I won't get my panties in a twist because poor people find their way here.  I know they have been lied to; we are all lied to all day, every day.  I know they may serve some other purpose. 

I don't consent to any of it.  I don't consent to national borders, or border patrols, or nations.  If the border patrols are being gagged, that is a good thing.  If they are being confined to quarters, that is even better.  If they are being fired and forced to seek honest work, that is better still.  There is nothing you can tell me about what is being done to government parasites that will elicit a scintilla of sympathy from me.  A pox on them all.

What I will never, ever do is complain about free people making their way in this world.  It doesn't matter what "borders" they cross or how much money they have.  Travel and movement is the birthright of all humans, and I'll be damned if I will speak out against it, no matter the provocation by government parasites or the machinations of the overlords.

Peace,

Silver

I do Object to what is effectively child abandonment by the parents of the currently large influx of kids.  The rest, I can see your point, but we are facing a migration like the indians faced, and that is NOT reassuring.......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 29, 2014, 03:50:40 pm
I don't have any reliable statistics about the ages of the people crossing these days.  The news likes to talk about 5-year olds, but I don't know how many there are.

Keep in mind that the US has infantilized young adults, but the rest of the wold has not.  While US nanny-staters talk about "children" who are 26 years old (I pay for their health insurance) in many places 14-year olds marry, work, and start families.

Even for the youngest genuine children, I find it hard to blame the parents.  Extreme poverty is not something most  Americans know much about. It changes how you look at life, how you live, the choices you have and the choices you make.

Ken White at Popehat had an excellent post on a closely related topic: STFU when talking to cops (http://www.popehat.com/2014/01/15/the-privilege-to-shut-up/).  He makes the point that affluent white people have choices about not talking to cops that the poor lack.

Read the whole post, but here's the conclusion:

Quote
My advice to shut up is colored, in part, by privilege. I was reminded of this yesterday when Los Angeles County Sheriff's Deputies searched Justin Bieber's house. I praised Bieber for shutting up and declining to talk to the cops, and joked that criminal defense attorneys could shame clients into better practices by asking why they aren't smarter than Justin Bieber.

But Justin Bieber and I and many of my clients share a crucial quality: we're affluent and fortunate. This privilege makes us better able to endure the potential downside risks of shutting up. If we get arrested on a petty or bogus charge by a pissed-off cop, we can make bail. We won't spend weeks or months in custody on that bogus charge because we can't scrape together a few thousand dollars. Maybe we'll spend the weekend in jail, because cops love to arrest you Friday afternoon, but we'll get out in a few days at most, and in the meantime we won't lose our jobs. Because we have families and support systems, if we do get thrown in jail on a bogus job by an angry cop, the Department of Child and Family Services won't take away our children, plunging us into another broken system we have neither the money nor the knowledge to navigate. If the cops tow or impound our car, we can afford to pay the few hundred to few thousand dollars to get it out, and we won't lose our jobs for lack of transportation. Even if we do lose our jobs because of a bogus and retaliatory arrest, we have savings, and families with savings, and we won't swiftly lose our homes. If the police choose to retaliate against our silence with petty tickets and infractions and fines rather than arrest, we can fight them or absorb them.

That's a privilege. Poor people don't have it. Poor people live on the razor's edge, and a bogus retaliatory arrest can destroy them. Retaliatory and capricious enforcement of petty crimes and infractions can destroy them financially. Police wield disproportionate power over them, and the criminal justice system and its agendas (like the War on Drugs) disproportionately impacts them. Police are more likely to use force against poor people and for the most part can do so without any significant risk of discipline.

When you and I weigh the downside risks of shutting up against the downside risks of talking, our downside risks are milder, and can be endured. People without our resources face a must starker choice: talk, and incriminate themselves, or shut up, and face an array of consequences they may not be equipped to survive.

I maintain my advice to shut up. But I acknowledge it's easier and safer for me and for most of the people reading this blog than it is for the people who most frequently encounter the police.

Now ratchet down the income to parents who are so poor that the lowest gang-banger on any American street has 20 times their wealth, and think for a moment about the choices forced on them.

Peace,

silver

 
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on June 29, 2014, 05:17:57 pm
What happens to a 14 year old adult legally in our society?  A minor, teenager who broke a federal law?   I do agree that there is a margin of survival logic going there "Steal that pie in the window or starve?" but there are other factors.   One of the missing factors is "Can I intrude on THAT tribe's hunting ground and get away with it?"  the hunting ground is being left undefended.......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: mi6a2lm on June 30, 2014, 02:15:42 pm
Prices for internationally traded wheat (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/world-bank-sounds-alarm-rising-202850180.html#ImKLvVu) jumped 18% in Q1 2014.  Prices for maize (corn) jumped 12 percent.  In three freaking months!!!

This despite bumper crops in 2013 and projected record grain harvests for 2014.

Ukraine, the breadbasket of Eastern Europe, saw domestic price increases of 73%!!!

Rising food prices were a major factor in the multiple upheavals of late, such as the "Arab Spring."

And as night follows day:

Quote
Prices for meat, poultry and fish have increased an average of eight percent over last year.  Fish prices are up 4.2 percent since last spring while ground beef is up 11 percent and pork is up 9.4 percent. Eggs costs were up 25 percent in early 2014, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The talk is about drought, swine virus, and "weak cattle numbers" whatever that is supposed to mean.  But drought doesn't explain fish or chicken, swine virus has always been with us, and cattle have become too expensive to feed on marginal ranches because the price of fuel, hay, and corn have shot through the freaking roof!

Get ready for more of this.  A lot more.  John Williams of Shadowstats.com is on record with a prediction of a hyperinflationary great depression in 2014.  He points to the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar to a massive sell-off leading to a dollar a panic at any time, a panic that could provide the start-up conditions for a hyperinflation.

Gold exploded almost $42 today.  People are waking up. Gold remains the primary means of  protecting your wealth, along with physical silver.

Peace,

Silver

Here's a June 17, 2014 snapshot of drought in IL - white means no drought with dark red being the worst:

(http://s13.postimg.org/4nd0fte93/20140617_il_none.png)

Current drought map of US:  http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The only drought is in the southwest and maybe some parts OK and KS.

From a Drudge link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10932785/The-race-to-stop-Las-Vegas-from-running-dry.html
---

It is located 25 miles outside the city and supplies 90 per cent of its water. But over the last decade, as Las Vegass population has grown by 400,000 to two million, Lake Mead has slowly been drained of four trillion gallons of water and is now well under half full. Mr Barnett predicts it may be a dead pool that provides no water by about 2036.

The crisis stems from the Las Vegass complete reliance on Lake Mead, Americas largest reservoir, which was created by the Hoover Dam in 1936 - after which it took six years to fill completely.
---

AZ has only two natural lakes:

---
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070606190013AAeP2qE

Pretty much ALL of the lakes in Arizona are man-made with the exception of Stoneman Lake and Mormon Lake near Flagstaff in Northern Arizona. Both of these are relatively small (and often near dry since the drought) and are located in large natural depression areas. Mormon Lake is the larger of the two.
---

Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on June 30, 2014, 03:42:31 pm
What happens to a 14 year old adult legally in our society?  A minor, teenager who broke a federal law?   I do agree that there is a margin of survival logic going there "Steal that pie in the window or starve?" but there are other factors.   One of the missing factors is "Can I intrude on THAT tribe's hunting ground and get away with it?"  the hunting ground is being left undefended.......

I don't need to invoke a margin of survival logic.  If a starving person steals my food, I'd like to think that I would show mercy.  Mercy is a quality that the strong can show to the weak.  It doesn't work the other direction.  In the stealing food scenario, I can show mercy, or not.

MY hunting ground is certainly not undefended.  Brown people crossing some politician's border don't concern me.  I may show a passport when I cross their silly line, but don't confuse compliance with consent.  People willing to work for less money than me, doing jobs I would rather not do, I like that.  There is no shortage of work to do, and many hands are welcome.

The only genuine objection I can see to people crossing imaginary lines without the proper rituals is that it costs the government more money to keep up appearances, makes it that much harder to keep the bread and circuses going.  That's no concern of mine.  Let the government dissolve, or collapse, and the problem goes away.  So it seems to me the problem is created by government, and applies only to government.  All the propaganda and fear mongering is just to convince the masses that they have a stake in promoting the state's stupid rules.  They don't.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on July 03, 2014, 07:26:44 am
Silver's Popehat excerpt sounds like advice to shut up if you can afford to navigate the system, but shoot cops on sight if you can't.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on July 06, 2014, 07:21:47 am
I don't read it that way at all.

Quote
Poor people live on the razor's edge, and a bogus retaliatory arrest can destroy them. Retaliatory and capricious enforcement of petty crimes and infractions can destroy them financially. Police wield disproportionate power over them, and the criminal justice system and its agendas (like the War on Drugs) disproportionately impacts them. Police are more likely to use force against poor people and for the most part can do so without any significant risk of discipline.

Nothing there sounds like advice for the citizen to use force.  I'm quite sure Ken White would not advocate the use of force against police.  I certainly do not.  Any arguments for justification aside, the police will most certainly retaliate, most likely by killing you, and very possibly murdering multiple innocents in the ensuing rampage.  It has happened more than once.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bill St. Clair on July 06, 2014, 10:15:16 am
I wasn't implying that you or he said anything of the sort. But that was my take-away. If you back an animal into a corner, you should expect it to attack, human or not.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Adventurer, Explorer, Inquiring Mind. on July 06, 2014, 11:52:13 am
I don't read it that way at all.

Quote
Poor people live on the razor's edge, and a bogus retaliatory arrest can destroy them. Retaliatory and capricious enforcement of petty crimes and infractions can destroy them financially. Police wield disproportionate power over them, and the criminal justice system and its agendas (like the War on Drugs) disproportionately impacts them. Police are more likely to use force against poor people and for the most part can do so without any significant risk of discipline.

Nothing there sounds like advice for the citizen to use force.  I'm quite sure Ken White would not advocate the use of force against police.  I certainly do not.  Any arguments for justification aside, the police will most certainly retaliate, most likely by killing you, and very possibly murdering multiple innocents in the ensuing rampage.  It has happened more than once.

Peace,

Silver

If you live in a populated area full of abusive scumbags, you can deal with it silently, there are multiple public domain books discussing plausible how tos.  They aren't even banned, probably find it at a local library and can read it in a few sittings without ever putting your name on that list of guys who checked out a book of that sort.  Those who live in less populous areas where everyone knows everyone else's business have other options.  Like beating the pig into the ground right on the roadside the moment he tries (be sure you can before you try or their charges will be more real and less likely to get thrown out) and laughing as everyone watching cheers or buys you one at the bar later.

Rednecks where I live routinely tell the cops to "fuck off" to nothing more than a "oh, okay, here's your license back, drive carefully."  The city cops where I live are 1/3 peacekeeper, 1/4 just doing my job and staying out of the way and 1/3 intimidating cop....  maybe 1/6 something else.  I'm used to a swat team being sent to issue a warrant in debt over 50 bucks to my neighbors, so this is a breath of fresh air. :P

I honestly only have one jack boot scumbag on my list of guys I'd rather see unemployed than on the job being rogue cops.  This guy is borderline rogue cop, but hasn't yet cut his teeth on federal training money so he hasn't started breaking heads.  Ironically he's a deputy, not a city cop.  My "town" has the nicest city cops I've met, and that includes the guy the old time locals actually hate and bitch about.  Funny that.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: StillaGhost on July 06, 2014, 12:41:18 pm
I wasn't implying that you or he said anything of the sort. But that was my take-away. If you back an animal into a corner, you should expect it to attack, human or not.

 
 
    As Mike V. has often said..." never poke a Wolverine with a sharp stick.".......
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 15, 2014, 12:49:19 pm
Seems that I timed my market exit very well! Stock markets are tanking. Big time!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 15, 2014, 02:49:36 pm
Yeah, me too.  I got rid of all my stock investments in 2007.  Never regretted it.

The chart below adjusts for inflation using the CPI - meaning it is rather optimistic.
Even with that optimism, the return on the Dow for the past 15 years has been - zero.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 15, 2014, 05:04:12 pm
Yeah, me too.  I got rid of all my stock investments in 2007.  Never regretted it.

The chart below adjusts for inflation using the CPI - meaning it is rather optimistic.
Even with that optimism, the return on the Dow for the past 15 years has been - zero.
I actually STARTED my investments in January 2009. Right near the bottom. Sold out late August 2014. :mellow:

If things stay up, I "might" buy back in, somewhere around late 2016. I think that's when the next upturn will begin. We'll see.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on October 17, 2014, 04:04:52 am
I am mostly opted out myself, and given a descanting trend once you adjust for all the monopoly money, I mainly play the short term game.  Silver is low so I buy some and get it shipped, or I see that elections are coming up and oil always dropps in price before election so I buy "It is going to drop" futures......  I do not have much money so I never make much, but little bits and pieces everywhere adds up.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 29, 2014, 01:48:16 pm
Fed ends bond buying, exhibits confidence in U.S. recovery
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ends-bond-buying-exhibits-180241266.html

(http://thumbs2.ebaystatic.com/d/l225/m/mddgaeWG21bCSN6AyZODPYA.jpg)

Quote
  The Federal Reserve on Wednesday ended its monthly bond purchase program and signaled confidence the U.S. economic recovery would remain on track despite signs of a slowdown in many parts of the global economy.

It retained its basic language regarding interest rates from recent statements, saying that rates would remain low for a "considerable time" following the end of the bond purchases this month.

The Fed will continue reinvesting the proceeds of securities that mature each month, meaning its more than $4 trillion balance sheet will remain intact for the time being.

Sooooooo.......What does this mean?

Well.....I think that it means that they have enough bonds maturing to reinvest without creating new money. So effectively, QE is still on....for now.

Is THIS the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end?
This song seems appropriate- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6abVnatXKU
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 29, 2014, 02:12:34 pm
The markets are responding. All exchanges are down.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on November 09, 2014, 08:23:12 am
Fed ends bond buying, exhibits confidence in U.S. recovery
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ends-bond-buying-exhibits-180241266.html

Well.....I think that it means that they have enough bonds maturing to reinvest without creating new money. So effectively, QE is still on....for now.

I'll respectfully disagree.  Re-investing the bonds rather than retiring them means that they aren't pulling the newly created money out of the system, rather leaving it in place.  But that isn't good enough.  A boom fueled by credit expansion requires a continual creation of new credit.

Mises has a good explanation in Human Action, page 559 of the scholar's edition:

"The breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from further expansion of credit. The boom could continue only as long as the banks were ready to grant freely all those credits which business needed for the execution of its excessive projects, utterly disagreeing with the real state of the supply of factors of production and the valuations of the consumers. These illusory plans, suggested by the falsification of business calculation as brought about by the cheap money policy, can be pushed forward only if new credits can be obtained at gross market rates which are artificially lowered below the height they would reach at an unhampered loan market. It is this margin that gives them the deceptive appearance of profitability. The change in the banks' conduct does not create the crisis. It merely makes visible the havoc spread by the faults which business has committed in the boom period."
(bold emphasis added.)

Mises goes on:

"As soon as the afflux of additional fiduciary media comes to an end, the airy castle of the boom collapses. The entrepreneurs must restrict their activities because they lack the funds for their continuation on the exaggerated scale. Prices drop suddenly because these distressed firms try to obtain cash by throwing inventories on the market dirt cheap. Factories are closed, the continuation of construction projects in progress is halted, workers are discharged. As on the one hand many firms badly need money in order to avoid bankruptcy, and on the other hand no firm any longer enjoys confidence, the entrepreneurial component in the gross market rate of interest jumps to an excessive height. "

Prices drop suddenly: anyone filled their gas tank lately?  Seen any factories closing (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=34551.0)?  Construction (http://www.archdaily.com/545230/construction-halted-on-shop-architects-atlantic-yards-housing-project/) halted?

================

If I may translate Mises:
The boom is doomed as soon as the expansion of credit stops.  Check.
Attempts to substitute additional debt and credit (what Mises calls fiduciary media) are doomed to fail.  QE1 Check. QE2 Check.  QE3 Check.  QE4 Check.  Perhaps mate?

Accidents and mass psychology can turn the correction into a panic.  This is the razor's edge we find ourselves standing upon today.  The precipice may already be behind us.  A bank holiday, a war with Russia, a terrorist strike, a major Ebola outbreak in a Western nation, any number of things could ignite a full-fledged panic.

Economics does not claim to predict how or when the correction/depression turns into a panic.  As for an appropriate song, may I suggest You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo)?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on November 09, 2014, 10:02:50 am
Fed ends bond buying, exhibits confidence in U.S. recovery
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ends-bond-buying-exhibits-180241266.html

Well.....I think that it means that they have enough bonds maturing to reinvest without creating new money. So effectively, QE is still on....for now.

I'll respectfully disagree.  Re-investing the bonds rather than retiring them means that they aren't pulling the newly created money out of the system, rather leaving it in place.  But that isn't good enough.  A boom fueled by credit expansion requires a continual creation of new credit.
That's alright. What you are saying DOES make sense when you define quantitative easing. Debt monetization.

Break out the popcorn and pull up a chair. There's a blockbuster apocalyptic experience, coming soon to a theater near you!
 :popcorn:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Rarick on November 10, 2014, 09:14:58 am
Yeah, me too.  I got rid of all my stock investments in 2007.  Never regretted it.

The chart below adjusts for inflation using the CPI - meaning it is rather optimistic.
Even with that optimism, the return on the Dow for the past 15 years has been - zero.
I actually STARTED my investments in January 2009. Right near the bottom. Sold out late August 2014. :mellow:

If things stay up, I "might" buy back in, somewhere around late 2016. I think that's when the next upturn will begin. We'll see.

Nope, that is not how you do it.  You wait for "OMG the bottom has fallen out" and save assets until then.  When you see "Speculation of a turnaround" is when you buy.  There were 200K houses on the market from the banks for 50,000$ "The remaining amount owed"........if you had some cash saved that is when you buy.........   The Carlton Sheets program that is out there is really about extending the upside of the market by exploiting johnny come latelies........even the "Flipping" is a multi years scheme.

Similar stuff happens on the stock market as well.  You have to hunt as carefully has you hunt a deer, and how good are you at not missing?  The stock market is not about precision shots, it is about catching a bit of hide on the latest animal making money........
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on December 10, 2014, 04:38:31 pm
Stocks have been pushing down for the last few days. I found this GREAT article a minute ago at coinflation, and hurried right over here to post the link for it. Read it! It's a good one.

The Unstoppable Tsunami of Reality

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/

Quote
Many who will read this work have been sitting patiently waiting for the house of cards to collapse.  For me personally, I confess the current maniacal financial bubble has gone on much longer than I ever imagined.  What did we miss?  Are we wrong or just early?  In my opinion, we were early, mathematically correct yet the rules changed.  For my part, I can say that I missed just how much leverage could be used to extend the game.  In the current instance, we are not even talking about garden variety leverage.  We live in a world where leverage is leveraged, leveraged again and again and again.  We have personal, public and private (OTC) leverage. The garden variety leverage is bad enough as is sovereign leverage, but the real problem are derivatives piled on top of derivatives with collateral which in many cases no longer even exists.  Too much leverage in the past has always led to burst bubbles.  All bubbles eventually burst and it looks like this one is bursting now.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on December 12, 2014, 04:46:10 pm
Hmmmm....Interesting...... :popcorn:

(https://s.yimg.com/fz/api/res/1.2/32fQz7G2IzEXnMSXpMnFrg--/YXBwaWQ9c3JjaGRkO3E9OTU-/http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EDJI/chart;range=5d/image;size=f1?region=US&lang=en-US&scheme=gsbeta)

Quite a drop there. That's what...8% or so? In one week!
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on January 27, 2015, 11:54:38 am
Martin Armstrong has an essay on LRC HOW DO Empires Die? (http://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/01/no_author/understanding-the-fall-of-empires/)

It's a bit long and not terribly well organized, but he does have some interesting points:

Major empires, such as Rome, Britain, etc. have not died by hyperinflation. Their downfall lasted for centuries with progressive debasement of the currency, until people stopped using it.

The US dollar, as the world's reserve currency, and the US economy, as the world's largest, can't have a hyperinflation because there is no where else for the money to go.

It's worth a read, and it does apply to this topic:  the world will end not with a bang, but a whimper.

I'm not sure I accept the fact that the US is the world's largest economy.  Not only are US GDP figures politicized and rigged, but government spending, the costs of arms and armies, and many other non-productive and counterproductive uses of wealth are counted towards the GDP figures.  Strip out the parasitical loads and stick to the 6 basics: Mining, manufacturing, transportation, energy, agriculture, free-market services.  You'll find that the US isn't the locomotive of the world economy - it is the caboose!  We've been consuming more than we produce for generations, and dragging the wealth of the world down in the process.

Robinson is right that there is no place for trillions of US government debt obligations to go to.  They will become worthless, and those who were foolish enough to buy them will lose.  The money doesn't have to go anywhere else.  It has already gone from one set of foolish hands into the hands of government, which squandered it and promised to print more to pay it back. Someday.

I'm not so sanguine as Armstrong about the impossibility of a hyperinflation.  The same excuses of world's reserve currency and largest economy have allowed the Fed to create truly mind-boggling amounts of scrip from thin air.  If the Chinese treasurer (or whatever his party title may be) wakes up tomorrow, picks up the phone and says "sell" the US empire would collapse in a month. 

It will probably end less spectacularly, but it will end. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Adventurer, Explorer, Inquiring Mind. on April 22, 2015, 03:46:40 am
Silver's analysis is nice, but here's the bottom line.  This thing will be kept going because, like with all evil things which aren't outwardly loathsome, nobody has the heart to cut its head off and set the shambling corpse on fire.  And until someone does, or until the abuses pile up so great that it does become so utterly inwardly and outwardly loathsome as to be unmistakable in nature, it will not fall.

Look around at our fellow Americans.  Clueless, ignorant, often vicious and devoid of any serious education or intelligence.  Both sides of the isle.  Would rather die than open their eyes, most of them.  Point in case:  All those Obama voters who got screwed and visibly so are now giving me vibes of "ready for Hillary."  Seriously?  Is the Stockholm Syndrome that bad?!

Nobody wants to face the freedom, because the intermediary bloody step in between, though short, requires two things in absence among Americans and most humans.  The willingness to try something new.  Right now, the conservative attitude of "conservatism" (which, for those of you who study male and female behaviors, is a female trait, since the female is the nest guardian and the keeper of the nest in most species.)  We'll fully define conservatism by explaining that it is the fear of change, the fear of exploration or the fear of the unknown, which is 100% accurate.  However, by the proper definition of observable behaviors in humans and other animals, we can also accurately define BOTH major American political parties and ALL American political discourse as CONSERVATISM.  Status Quo is GOD in America.  Both parties will throw you under the bus for trying to rock the boat or change a thing.  The idea of "dont' fix it if it ain't broke" doesn't jive with evolution.  Especially since government IS BROKE... in more ways than one. :)

From that perspective, America is 100% conservative, since NOBODY wants to try freedom, and nobody ever has.  Too many vested interests, too many cowards, too many people afraid to recognize the sunk cost fallacy which government fully and unmistakably is.  Freedom hasn't been tried because it would require a fresh start with ONLY intelligent and moral people.  The immoral people (intelligent or idiot alike) would also oppose its emergence as they are already entrenched and wouldn't enjoy seeing their power advantages (which are the only advantages they have... that being political inertia) vanish overnight.  They'd have to WORK and THINK, and that's a scary thought.

Good luck with that.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 28, 2015, 12:20:08 pm
Here we go again!

(http://ylovephoto.com/fr/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/bubble_pop.jpg)

Slow motion bubble pop. The DOW is down 270pts right now. I wonder what it will close at?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 28, 2015, 04:05:12 pm
Well....It looks like the Dow has dropped 312 to finish at just a shade above 16k. SO, on the day, The DOW dropped about 2%, NASDAQ dropped 3%, and the S&P dropped 2.5%. Hmmmm...... :popcorn:
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: knobster on September 29, 2015, 06:27:01 am
Look around at our fellow Americans.  Clueless, ignorant, often vicious and devoid of any serious education or intelligence.  Both sides of the isle.  Would rather die than open their eyes, most of them.  Point in case:  All those Obama voters who got screwed and visibly so are now giving me vibes of "ready for Hillary."  Seriously?  Is the Stockholm Syndrome that bad?!

Yes it is.  Was at a parade this past weekend - a bunch of Hillary supporters were marching.  Shouting "She can win!" and "We love Hillary!".  Sponsored by some Iowa Progressives group (can't remember the exact name) but I do know this Progressives group was marching in the same parade in 2011 shouting "Yes we can!  Yes we can!"

I no longer see people, just zombies...
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 29, 2015, 07:55:25 am
Well....It looks like the Dow has dropped 312 to finish at just a shade above 16k.

I don't remember the year, but I do remember a time when the world went crazy because the DOW hit 7,000. The pundits were screaming - some that the world would end abruptly if that number got any higher, and some laughing with joy because they knew it would. Or something. I confess, I didn't pay a lot of attention then. :)  Or now.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: RVM45 on September 29, 2015, 11:38:30 am
Like the "T" Shirt:

"I See Stupid People".

I remember reading a Book by Howard Ruff 30 some-odd years ago.

He said that the Dow had fallen and everyone was rooting for it to get back to 1200 once more! And if it did then everyone would cheer.

Only Ruff said that he wouldn't cheer because adjusted for inflation 1200 wasn't that big a deal

Sigh

In one of his books, Robert Ringer discussed a number of different scenarios for the future.

This was one Very Low Probabilitybut Conceivable Future: 

Remember Barry Goldwater's "Breakpoint"? That's the point where there are so many non-producers that the producers can no longer support them and the system collapses.

But imagine a society so high tech and automated that an arbitrarily small number of producersO say 1% can support the other 99% in Royal Style with a trifling "Pennies-on-the-dollar" tax.

Yeah, tax is still theft and why should the productive support non-productive and all that

But imagine this scenario in detail:

Exactly what kind of growing pains would society and the economy have to go through to arrive at this scenario? Would it be anything like what we're going through today?

{That is not claiming that we'll arriveor that such a Distopia/Utopoia is even possiblebut could we be sliding toward that Abstract Vanishing Point and if so, what does that Auger about the near future?}

Note: If we weren't FAR More productive today than we were in Barry Goldwater's day we'd have hit the Breakpoint a LONG Time Ago





..RVM45
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 29, 2015, 11:47:20 am
Well....It looks like the Dow has dropped 312 to finish at just a shade above 16k.

I confess, I didn't pay a lot of attention then. :)  Or now.
I do. Trying to figure out what is coming, when it's coming, and what the implications are, are just good situational awareness in my opinion. I find it very interesting. Especially things like this-

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The Worlds Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/is-glencore-the-next-lehman-the-worlds-largest-commodities-trading-company-is-toast_09292015

Quote
Are we about to witness the most important global financial event since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008?  Glencore has been known as the largest commodities trading company on the entire planet, and at one time it was ranked as the 10th biggest company in the world.  It is linked to trillions of dollars of derivatives trades globally, and if the firm were to implode it would be a financial disaster unlike anything that we have seen in Europe since the end of World War II.  Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to an inescapable death spiral for Glencore at this point.  The stock price was down nearly 30 percent on Monday, and overall Glencore stock has plunged nearly 80 percent since May.  There are certainly other candidates for the next Lehman (Petrobras and Deutsche Bank being two perfect examples), but Glencore has definitely surged to the front of the pack.  Right now many analysts are openly wondering if the firm will even be able to survive to the end of next month.

If Glencore does go belly-up, there will be catastrophic consequences across the globe. Commodities are tanking, just like they did before the last crash.

-Silver,

If you get a chance, I would love to see your take on this.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 29, 2015, 11:51:30 am

Note: If we weren't FAR More productive today than we were in Barry Goldwater's day we'd have hit the Breakpoint a LONG Time Ago





..RVM45
That's for sure.

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.


― Margaret Thatcher
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on September 30, 2015, 06:05:42 am

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The Worlds Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/is-glencore-the-next-lehman-the-worlds-largest-commodities-trading-company-is-toast_09292015
...

-Silver,

If you get a chance, I would love to see your take on this.

I don't trust SHTFplan or their source,  Economic Collapse blog.  As I mentioned in another thread, I'm skeptical, especially of sources that align with my own beliefs and opinions.  Those two blogs see the collapse coming, but time and again their clue meters have nearly pegged on zero. 

As they are this time.  Comparing Glencore to Lehman is silly.  Lehman had $600 billion in assets when it filed for bankruptcy.  Glencore has less than $15 billion, less than 1/40 the size of Lehman.  The ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corp) news article was headlined "Glencore could be the resource sector's Lehman Brothers.  The resource sector is tiny compared to the financial markets, but that didn't stop Synder from amping up the ABC headline to "Is Glencore The Next Lehman? "

So I'm put off by the hyperventilation.  Clue meter still at zero.

Glencore is down but hardly out.  The massive Austrailian market selloff pushed the yields on Glencore bonds from 4.3 to 5.4 percent.  That's still stupidly cheap money, lent by greater fools to lesser fools.  The greater fools are desperately seeking yield; the fed's criminally insane ZIRP has been punishing both real savers and printed money "investors" for nearly a decade now.

What we are seeing is the inevitable crash that follows an orgy of money printing.  Austrian economics predicts that those enterprises highest up the production ladder get hit the hardest.  It takes many years, often decades, to locate and build a mine.  The people making decisions today about where (or if) to build a mine are thinking about ore prices 20 years from now.  The fed destroys market signals with their interest rate manipulations and money printing, and businesses like mines that have to make very long term predictions overbuild based on the false signals.

I expect Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria, and many smaller commodity traders to go down.  Prices of commodities must crash.  There are too many mines and not enough real demand for base metals, thermal coal, etc.  Eventually the demand will rise, and by that point there won't be enough mines open to serve the demand, prices will skyrocket, and entreprenuers will seek to re-open old mines or build new ones. 

If/when Glencore goes down it will be a symptom, not a cause.  We're still afflicted with the rot and decay signaled by the Lehman bankruptcy.  The normal cleansing by market forces has been thwarted for 7 long years.  I'm amazed at that, but market forces are almost as unstoppable as physical laws, so there is no doubt about what is going to happen.  The only question is when, and neither SHTFplan or Economic Collapse blog will ever get a clue on that one.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 30, 2015, 08:31:08 am


I don't trust SHTFplan or their source,  Economic Collapse blog.  As I mentioned in another thread, I'm skeptical, especially of sources that align with my own beliefs and opinions.  Those two blogs see the collapse coming, but time and again their clue meters have nearly pegged on zero. 
I understand your distrust. I did see this mentioned at zerohedge though. Is that source more trust-worthy to you?

Here it is-

Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-28/glencore-implodes-stock-plunges-most-record-cds-blows-equity-wipeout-fears



I had another question for you as well. What are your thoughts on Deutsche Bank? They seem to be having a lot of trouble. I remember reading somewhere that they have had to pay something like 9 billion in fines over the past few years.

Maybe the triggers for collapse will be multiple smaller firms becoming insolvent, rather than one BIG one this time around?
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 27, 2015, 06:34:32 pm
 "Remember, remember!
    The fifth of November"

Or the third.....

I have been hearing/reading a lot of grumblings about a big economic event happening around that time. Could be another shut-down due to a fight over the debt limit, maybe? :dontknow:

I'm not saying that the sky is falling, but I just wanted to note that there is a lot of noise out there concerning those two dates.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Bear on October 28, 2015, 05:11:08 pm
There have been so many opportunities where things should have gone down the drain that
I have pretty much given up on guessing when. I think when a collapse finally does come,
the reaction of people watching for it will almost feel anti-climatic.

Huh... it did happen after all....

Bear
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 28, 2015, 06:54:44 pm
There have been so many opportunities where things should have gone down the drain that
I have pretty much given up on guessing when. I think when a collapse finally does come,
the reaction of people watching for it will almost feel anti-climatic.

Huh... it did happen after all....

Bear
I'm getting to that point myself. I continue to monitor things, but it's getting easier to wade through the obvious fear mongering.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on October 28, 2015, 07:02:21 pm
There have been so many opportunities where things should have gone down the drain that
I have pretty much given up on guessing when. I think when a collapse finally does come,
the reaction of people watching for it will almost feel anti-climatic.

Huh... it did happen after all....

Bear

+1

I'm expecting to think
"Oh, so it's finally happening.  What was it I planned to do?"

The truth is that we live day to day.  The fact that we can see big storms on the horizon doesn't change what we did today one whit.  When the big storm comes, maybe some of the preps we did so long ago make a difference.  Maybe not.  Maybe it doesn't go down like we expected.  Then we're back to day by day.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: penguinsscareme on October 29, 2015, 08:36:28 pm
Same here.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Silver on March 17, 2016, 11:05:08 am
One of the reasons the fed is able to create so many FRNs out of thin air without a roaring price inflation (as if 9% isn't roaring) is that other central banks buy them, thus spreading the inflation in the money supply over the entire planet instead of concentrating it in the US.

The central banks buy a LOT.  Since the start of the Greater Depression in 2008, when the fed went batshit crazy creating FRNs, the world's central banks bought:

2008:  $ 76 billion
2009:  $161 billion
2010:  $172 billion
2011:  $144 billion
2012:  $209 billion
2013:-$  8 billion
2014: $ 45 billion
2015:- $225 billion

Whoops!  They started selling in 2015!

Actually, they started selling in earnest in 2013.  As I reported here (https://secure.thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19158.msg420846#msg420846), in December 2013 China dumped $48 billion.  In one month.  2013 was less of a bloodbath because our close ally and key trading partner - Belgium - purchased truly massive amounts of FRNs. In December 2013 when China was dumping 48 Very Large Belgium bought 55 -  13% of their entire economy's annual production of goods and services in one month!

I guess Belgium has enough, or maybe they are still buying but the others are selling even more.

In January of 2016, central banks sold $57 billion.  One month.  That's an annual rate of $684 billion.  They are unlikely to meet that target, as their net purchases since 2008 are only $574 billion.  The Chinese have more than that, so really anything is possible.

So its possible that a very large number of FRNs will come home to roost this year.  The giant sucking sound you hear is the dollar going down the world's largest toilet.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on March 17, 2016, 02:54:46 pm

So its possible that a very large number of FRNs will come home to roost this year.  The giant sucking sound you hear is the dollar going down the world's largest toilet.

Peace,

Silver
The dollar is down about 1% today. As is expecting in such a situation, oil and the stock market are rising.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: FDD on March 17, 2016, 03:01:25 pm

So its possible that a very large number of FRNs will come home to roost this year.  The giant sucking sound you hear is the dollar going down the world's largest toilet.

Peace,

Silver
The dollar is down about 1% today. As is expecting in such a situation, oil and the stock market are rising.

As is gold and silver too
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: DiabloLoco on March 17, 2016, 03:10:09 pm

So its possible that a very large number of FRNs will come home to roost this year.  The giant sucking sound you hear is the dollar going down the world's largest toilet.

Peace,

Silver
The dollar is down about 1% today. As is expecting in such a situation, oil and the stock market are rising.

As is gold and silver too
Silver rose, but gold is pretty flat today. I have noticed that the premium on silver has been declining pretty much on par with how much silver has been rising. If the trend continues, there will be no premium for generic rounds/bars or junk silver at about $18/oz.
Title: Re: This is the way the world ends
Post by: Jake on April 11, 2016, 10:03:20 am
There have been so many opportunities where things should have gone down the drain that
I have pretty much given up on guessing when. I think when a collapse finally does come,
the reaction of people watching for it will almost feel anti-climatic.

Huh... it did happen after all....

Bear

Bear, I have been paying attention since 1989, it increased more in 1993 when NAFTA begin to come in.  By 1999, I was doing buckets and burying them for year to test contents.  The millennium did not even get my attention.  A couple years ago I took my retirement and built a home off grid.  When I moved, I had 44 buckets.

If it doesn't happen. . . . . I will be pissed!