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Special Interest => Money, Commerce, and Taxation => Topic started by: Silver on October 25, 2008, 07:47:59 pm

Title: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 25, 2008, 07:47:59 pm
I thought it might be useful to have a thread documenting the signs along the way as we enter the Greater Depression.

Today truckmaker Volvo admitted demand across the Continent has crashed by 99.7% as it took orders for just 115 new lorries in the last three months.

That compares to orders totalling 41,970 in the third quarter of 2007. full text (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069)
edited to fix faulty link
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on October 26, 2008, 02:41:02 am
faulty link there... try this one (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069)

"The depth of the recession was revealed today as truckmaker Volvo admitted demand across the Continent has crashed by 99.7% as it took orders for just 115 new lorries in the last three months."
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 26, 2008, 02:49:37 am
faulty link there... try this one (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069)

"The depth of the recession was revealed today as truckmaker Volvo admitted demand across the Continent has crashed by 99.7% as it took orders for just 115 new lorries in the last three months."

Thanks, Junker.
Truly frightening report.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on October 26, 2008, 03:47:41 am
And thank you. ShortyDawkins.

Now a related story... US giant GM shares fall to 50 year low (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=455098&in_page_id=3)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on October 26, 2008, 09:45:48 am
Daimler to suspend production for one month - report

By MarketWatch
Last update: 3:26 p.m. EDT Oct. 25, 2008
BERLIN (AFP) -- German carmaker Daimler (DAI:DAI
News, chart, profile, more
Last:


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DAI, , ) , hit by falling demand amid the global financial crisis, plans to suspend production for a month beginning in December, a newspaper said in report due to appear Sunday.
The break in production would begin on December 11 and last until January 12, Frankfurter Sonntagszeitung reported, citing a company spokesman.
Daimler, the first luxury car maker to present its quarterly results, unveiled big falls in profits on Thursday and issued a new profit warning owing to the global banking crisis.
"The financial crisis is turning into an economic crisis," Daimler chairman Dieter Zetsche told a telephone news conference. It provoked "in recent weeks a dramatic slump on our major markets," he said.
"The situation is very challenging," Zetsche added, "we are living in extraordinary times."


Emphasis mine. I took the liberty of pasting the whole (short) article.
Daimler cuttung production for a whole month? Unheard of. Who next?

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 26, 2008, 10:29:51 am
And from Volvo:

Volvo truck sales plunge 99.7%

Evening Standard

24 October 2008, 2:19pm
Reader comments (4)

The depth of the recession was revealed today as truckmaker Volvo admitted demand across the Continent has crashed by 99.7% as it took orders for just 115 new lorries in the last three months.

The full article:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069&in_page_id=3&position=moretopstories

DS


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 29, 2008, 11:13:53 am
From the LRC blog (http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023727.html)

Writes Scott L. Fields: "When getting my coffee at Starbucks this morning, I didn't get an insulator on my cup. That normally means they've run out. When I asked, I was told they've been told to no longer provide insulators unless explicitly asked. Hmmmmm."
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on October 29, 2008, 12:11:44 pm
I still hold a part-time job doing audio at a college. It keeps me in mad money and I still get to twist knobs. Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't see too many students. I was told by my boss that the college had lost 400 students already this year. ALL departments were told to cut budgets by 15%. Many of the students left due to costs. There's also been a marked decrease in the amount of events we handle. I've worked less than 20 hours this month and right now there's nothing scheduled until the first weekend in November.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on October 31, 2008, 09:21:02 pm
I still hold a part-time job doing audio at a college. It keeps me in mad money and I still get to twist knobs. Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't see too many students. I was told by my boss that the college had lost 400 students already this year. ALL departments were told to cut budgets by 15%. Many of the students left due to costs. There's also been a marked decrease in the amount of events we handle. I've worked less than 20 hours this month and right now there's nothing scheduled until the first weekend in November.

If you're twisting knobs rather than sliding them, the equipment budget must have been cut some time ago.

I believe it was a "finger of speech"...

DS
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: iloilo on November 01, 2008, 12:40:58 am
I believe it was a "finger of speech"...
DS
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
ff

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on November 01, 2008, 01:06:04 am
Yes, everbody hang on for dear life.

                    RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 01, 2008, 12:32:43 pm
I still hold a part-time job doing audio at a college. It keeps me in mad money and I still get to twist knobs. Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't see too many students. I was told by my boss that the college had lost 400 students already this year. ALL departments were told to cut budgets by 15%. Many of the students left due to costs. There's also been a marked decrease in the amount of events we handle. I've worked less than 20 hours this month and right now there's nothing scheduled until the first weekend in November.

If you're twisting knobs rather than sliding them, the equipment budget must have been cut some time ago.

What else is a knobjockey s'posed to twist?  :laugh: :laugh: :mellow:

All kidding aside, once you set your faders and trim your gain structures on all inputs all that's left is to hone the eq on any channel that may need help and that's done on the knobs. I drive a Midas 32ch. into a DBX Drive Rack -->EV Precision amps-->Dynacord speakers @130db FOH. The sidefills and monitors are in serious need of upgrade, need to replace about 15 mics and I'd like to complete the mic stand changeover, add a 1/2 dozen more wireless mics and matching Countryman over-ear mics. Plus I would like to upgrade the 4 portable systems for around campus. In the little theatre the system needs to be completely replaced. For now it sort of survives on leftovers and gaff tape. Heck I'm still using a Crown DC300 for the mains which are Community CS 12's flown from the antepro truss. We don't even have subs in there but they're not really necessary as we use the little theatre mostly for lectures, guest speakers, recitals and some smaller performances. We just had Tommy Sands in there last week. It's an intimate setting at about 250 seats so not a lot of reinforcement is needed.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 02, 2008, 09:17:41 am
I still hold a part-time job doing audio at a college. It keeps me in mad money and I still get to twist knobs. Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't see too many students. I was told by my boss that the college had lost 400 students already this year. ALL departments were told to cut budgets by 15%. Many of the students left due to costs. There's also been a marked decrease in the amount of events we handle. I've worked less than 20 hours this month and right now there's nothing scheduled until the first weekend in November.

If you're twisting knobs rather than sliding them, the equipment budget must have been cut some time ago.

What else is a knobjockey s'posed to twist?  :laugh: :laugh: :mellow:

All kidding aside, once you set your faders and trim your gain structures on all inputs all that's left is to hone the eq on any channel that may need help and that's done on the knobs. I drive a Midas 32ch. into a DBX Drive Rack -->EV Precision amps-->Dynacord speakers @130db FOH. The sidefills and monitors are in serious need of upgrade, need to replace about 15 mics and I'd like to complete the mic stand changeover, add a 1/2 dozen more wireless mics and matching Countryman over-ear mics. Plus I would like to upgrade the 4 portable systems for around campus. In the little theatre the system needs to be completely replaced. For now it sort of survives on leftovers and gaff tape. Heck I'm still using a Crown DC300 for the mains which are Community CS 12's flown from the antepro truss. We don't even have subs in there but they're not really necessary as we use the little theatre mostly for lectures, guest speakers, recitals and some smaller performances. We just had Tommy Sands in there last week. It's an intimate setting at about 250 seats so not a lot of reinforcement is needed.

I'm impressed, but that sounds more like a sound reinforcement paradigm than "broadcast quality" gear.
The closest to audiophile I've found in a radio station is Howe, and I think they gave up several years ago.
Their system that allowed monitoring without cans with the mic on was interesting.

Yep. Sound reinforcement. 30+ years now. I've done broadcast and recording also. I find live work to be the most challenging. I sold my business in 2002 but still work out at the college and occasionally do a gig for a tour company out of Chicago.

As far as "broadcast quality" gear, that stuff was never any better than live gear. The quality spectrum of gear is essentially the same for all industrial audio. Everything from cheap crap to overly expensive "boutique stuff" that rarely improves the listener's experience but makes engineers feel swell and keeps salesmen fed. Like any other profession or trade, in audio it's the nut behind the knob that makes it sound good, mediocre or like crap.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: AnotherArmchair on November 02, 2008, 09:53:38 pm
Arcelor Mittal has idled its Cleveland blast furnaces (http://www.cleveland.com/plaindealer/stories/index.ssf?/base/business-8/1225528222214040.xml&coll=2) through at least the end of the year; only the hot strip mill plus maintenance and finishing operations will continue.

I seem to recall things like this back in the '70s, when steel was originally dying in Cleveland and the Mahoning Valley further east.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 03, 2008, 06:06:01 am
Circuit City to close 155 stores - http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/02/circuit-city-to-shutter-155-stores-locations-to-go-public-tomor/
Black Thunder mine (Arch Coal - Powder river Basin - Wyoming) is idling a dragline in an attempt to maintain profits in face of low prices/low demand --
linky (http://gillettenewsrecord.com/articles/2008/10/29/news/today/news01.txt)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on November 03, 2008, 10:15:41 am
Utilities losing customers due to foreclosures...

Utilities Report Drop In Clients (http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/nov/01/bz-utilities-report-drop-in-clients/)

Quote
After years of steady growth, Progress Energy Florida and Tampa Electric Co. reported a slight drop in customers in the third quarter, an unprecedented event for both utilities, which have been hammered by a surge in housing foreclosures and vacant homes.

... and shipping being mothballed.

Essar Shipping defers bulk carrier buy on poor mkt (http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM1329420081031)

Quote
The Baltic Dry Index .BADI, a gauge of shipping costs for commodities, has fallen more than 90 percent to below 900 points from its peak of 11,793 hit in May.

Globally, some shippers have declared backruptcy, while others are looking at mothballing ships and cutting jobs if a slowdown in global trade gets worse.

You don't go to the trouble of putting ships into mothballs unless you know it will be YEARS before you need them again.

ND
Title: More automobile sales data
Post by: Silver on November 04, 2008, 05:12:57 am
U.S. Auto Sales Fall 32% to Lowest Total in 17 Years
 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5PrXcWxGKQ0&refer=home)
U.S. auto sales plummeted 32 percent in October to the lowest monthly total since January 1991, led by General Motors Corp.'s 45 percent slide, as reduced access to loans and a weaker economy kept consumers off dealer lots.

Ford Motor Co. reported a 30 percent drop in car and light- truck sales from a year earlier and Toyota Motor Corp.'s declined 23 percent. Honda Motor Co.'s slid 25 percent, Nissan Motor Co.'s were down 33 percent and Chrysler LLC's fell 35 percent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 04, 2008, 01:32:54 pm
Sort of in the same vein as ND's post above. similar results somewhat different reasons...
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou081014_mp_credit-crunch-power-companies.1134443f5.html
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 04, 2008, 01:54:36 pm
I thought it might be useful to have a thread documenting the signs along the way as we enter the Greater Depression.

Today truckmaker Volvo admitted demand across the Continent has crashed by 99.7% as it took orders for just 115 new lorries in the last three months.

That compares to orders totalling 41,970 in the third quarter of 2007. full text (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069)
edited to fix faulty link



I worked at the* (edited for anti-data-mining purposes)truck plant in * (edited for anti-data-mining purposes). * (edited for anti-data-mining purposes). We were up to 90 trucks per day at the time.* (edited for anti-data-mining purposes) Only 115 in the last 3 months is horrible !
Title: D.R. Horton, largest homebuilder in USA, reports losses up 18x from a year ago
Post by: Silver on November 04, 2008, 06:28:48 pm
Homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. warned investors that it expected to lose up to $900 million in its fourth-quarter - about 18 times more than in the prior-year period.

D.R. Horton expects $800M-$900M loss in 4Q (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/11/04/ap5646977.html)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on November 04, 2008, 07:06:52 pm
Hints from the last one.

http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_descent-beginning-'32.html
(The majority of the following was taken from articles published in contemporary issues of the N.Y. Times.)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gridboy on November 12, 2008, 09:05:23 pm
When do they start sending out Christmas catalogs?  I think I've received far fewer than last year.
Have the retailers written off this Christmas sales season?  Or maybe I haven't been a good
consumer this year, so Santa is not sending me catalogs.

gridboy
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 12, 2008, 09:24:49 pm
Circuit City to close 155 stores - http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/02/circuit-city-to-shutter-155-stores-locations-to-go-public-tomor/
Black Thunder mine (Arch Coal - Powder river Basin - Wyoming) is idling a dragline in an attempt to maintain profits in face of low prices/low demand --
linky (http://gillettenewsrecord.com/articles/2008/10/29/news/today/news01.txt)
Update: Circuit City files for bankruptcy
Excerpt:
Written by Shaun Nichols in San Francisco
vnunet.com, 12 Nov 2008

Embattled US electronics retailer Circuit City has filed for bankruptcy protection. The company issued the Chapter 11 filing on Monday, asking the government temporarily to shield it from creditors while a reorganisation plan is enacted.
Circuit City, the second largest electronics retailer in North America behind Best Buy, said that it plans to keep its 566 stores operational for the time being.

Chief executive Jim Marcum said in a letter to customers that the company also plans to continue most of its customer programmes and services, such as returns, gift cards and extended warranties.

News of the bankruptcy filing is the latest in what has been a grim few months for Circuit City. The company attempted earlier this month to stem its financial troubles by closing 155 stores and shelving plans for new stores.
More at link
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lightning on November 12, 2008, 10:31:21 pm
As y'all know, Linens 'N' Things filed for bankruptcy a few weeks back.  I went by the local LNT store today and there was a big banner up - "GOING OUT OF BUSINESS." 

Everything in the store was marked down, most things by 20%, a few oddments at 30% or 40% off.  Already the place looked picked over, although there was still a good bit of stock on the shelves, maybe 75% of formerly normal.  Quite a few items were looking the worse for wear, though.  Dented pillar candles, boxes with smashed corners, packages opened and their contents strewn around.

At checkout, there was another big sign: "ALL SALES FINAL."  The cashier asked to be sure I'd seen it.  No returns or exchanges for any reason.

I asked her how much longer they expected to be open.  She said, "They're telling us maybe early January."
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on November 13, 2008, 01:20:17 am
Quote
Sort of in the same vein as ND's post above. similar results somewhat different reasons...
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou081014_mp_credit-crunch-power-companies.1134443f5.html

Holy s*** Batman!

I think it's possible we could have temporary blackouts in some areas just because the power companies
can't arrange their financing and make alternate arrangements. (snafu/fubar).

Isn't that just ducky.

Bear

PS: My spelling checker recognizes snafu, but not fubar. ???

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 13, 2008, 02:21:03 am

 My spelling checker recognizes snafu, but not fubar.


I like that !
  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on November 14, 2008, 10:28:34 am
To revisit my previous mothballing comments, today's news is as unmistakable as a cannon shot across the bow.

Bloomberg: Mitsui O.S.K. May Mothball, Scrap Ships on Rate Slump (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=agDUznHbUEus&refer=japan)

The Japanese seem to recognize that it's coutry's trouble in the 90's looks like the popping of a party balloon compared to what the entire world is about to experience.

Quote
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., Japan's most profitable shipping line, may mothball some of its largest vessels for the first time in over two decades as charter rates have fallen 98 percent over the last five months.

The world's largest merchant fleet operator may also scrap seven of its capesize ships, used for transporting iron ore and coal, from a fleet of about 100, Masafumi Yasuoka, senior executive officer at the shipping line, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday.

Quote
The company is looking for a bay in the Philippines where it can station the ships and remove their crews. Mothballing, or laying-up, vessels normally takes them out of action for months or years and is a longer-term commitment than putting down anchor and waiting for rents to advance.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 15, 2008, 11:59:53 am
Excellent find ND!
Title: Eurozone
Post by: byron mc on November 15, 2008, 03:18:46 pm
Quote
Europe officially fell into recession on Friday

Quote
The United States is probably already in recession, most economists agree, but official data showing that will not come out until January. [2009]

Quote
The financial crisis continues to wreak havoc on the world's major economies, with official data showing the 15-nation euro zone economy had shrunk by 0.2 percent for the second quarter in a row, meaning it is technically in recession.

Europe in recession, U.S. in pain as world leaders meet
Nov 15, 2008, Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE49N5VU20081115

Quote
Currently, a single currency is in use between the 15 members of the eurozone
Considered as a single economy, the EU generated an estimated nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of US$16,830 billion in 2007, amounting to 31% of the world's total economic output,[3] which makes it the largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the second largest trade bloc economy in the world by PPP valuation of GDP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_union

Quote
Slovakia is scheduled to introduce the euro on 1 January 2009.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: clarence on November 16, 2008, 02:16:15 am
Quote
Sort of in the same vein as ND's post above. similar results somewhat different reasons...
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou081014_mp_credit-crunch-power-companies.1134443f5.html

Holy s*** Batman!

I think it's possible we could have temporary blackouts in some areas just because the power companies
can't arrange their financing and make alternate arrangements. (snafu/fubar).

Isn't that just ducky.

Bear

PS: My spelling checker recognizes snafu, but not fubar. ???



i was thinking about the long term consequences of reduced maintenance of the infrastructure of the electrical grid and natural gas pipelines. even today, the maintenance is spotty and constantly needed. given a problem with funding and revenue, there could be major problems with production and distribution in just a few years; long before the economic problems could be resolved.

clarence
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 16, 2008, 06:06:50 am
The odds of having a blackout due to the credit crunch are nil.  Zip.  Nada.  That article is agitprop, designed solely to stampede the herd.  Don't pay any attention to it.

What the article discussed is the plight of faux businesses created by "re-regulation" of Texas electricity markets.  The businesses they refer to are middlemen.  In general, they add very little value.  In general, they are undercapitalized.  In general, they go out of business.

The lights stay on.  Politicians took note when Gray Davis was recalled from office in California after rolling blackouts.  No pol will let that happen on his watch.  When the middlemen go out of business, nothing changes except bookeeping entries.  The generators still spin, the lines still link, the electrons get pumped.  It was set up this way, that your electricity stays on even if your faux "supplier" goes down, precisely because the pols know people will not stand for having their electricity cut.

Clarence points out a much more significant problem: aging infrastructure and maintenance.  FERC effectively nationalized transmission assets worth nearly a trillion dollars.  That has essentially eliminated all incentives for private investment in transmission systems.  The system will expand by only 1% on the next 10 years - and I can see that future because it takes a long time to permit and construct a transmission line.  The system will grow by 1%, but demand for electricity will grow 10-20%. 

"Re-regulation" also took most of the power out of seats on the public utility commissions.  In the bad old days, those commissions made decisions about where power plants and transmission lines got built.  They oversaw utility budgets for hundreds of millions of dollars.  If the utility needed to increase spending on upgrade or maintenance of local "stick and wire" equipment serving consumers, it was a small part of the total budget and invariably approved. 

Now, PUCs have very little power, and are staffed by know-nothing hacks.  The only thing they can do is get in the way of the stick and wire shells left of the unities.  Today PUCs routinely deny most or all requests for upgrades, and demand that maintenance budgets are cut year after year.  Then they crow about how they have saved ratepayers money.

Utility equipment is very expensive and lasts a long time, 40 years or more.  This is not a business built on credit, but on patient capital.  The capital has been withdrawn, except for generation, as a direct result of government intervention in the market.  It's possible to defer maintenance, but most distribution systems are nearing the end of their useful lives.  They will begin failing more frequently and take longer to fix.

We are in danger of more and prolonged blackouts, but not because of the credit crunch.  We are in danger because nationalizing the transmission system means shortages of transmission capacity and services.  There may be privately funded generators up and running 100 miles away, but your lights will go out because the central planners running the transmission system are just as incompetent and stupid and unable to manage any section of the economy as the commissars of the former USSR.   We are in danger because one-size-fits-all government regulation of electricity distribution denies those of us who believe in well-maintained, highly reliable electric service from being able to purchase those services in the free market.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: freewoman on November 16, 2008, 06:46:33 am
Amen, Silver!  My ex works in the nuclear power industry; he's become a safety expert (long story).  After 9 years with him, I've heard plenty of stories just like what you shared.  It just reinforces my desire to get off the grid and develop my own system, which I can hopefully keep maintained properly.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 16, 2008, 07:22:35 am
Thank you for the kind words, freewoman.

Given your husbands expertise and your desire to get off the grid, perhaps you should investigate the Hyperion personal nuclear reactor (http://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=2938.msg251213#msg251213). 

Actually, it's only personal if your home and occupation need 25 megawatts, but it's a very interesting play for a gulch of a few thousand people.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: freewoman on November 16, 2008, 09:05:12 am
I'll bookmark this under one of my folders; if I strike it rich, that would be a good item to purchase!  However, I'm no longer married to the guy--thank goodness; he's someone else's problem now!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on November 16, 2008, 11:22:45 am
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v391/dogsledder54/The_Simpsons_habits.jpg)
My ex works in the nuclear power industry; he's become a safety expert
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on November 16, 2008, 05:42:20 pm
Americans teetering on $14 trillion debt pile

By Emily Kaiser - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Free-spending U.S. consumers who bought everything from homes to groceries on borrowed money are running out of credit, and paying the bills will cost the world's biggest economy and its trading partners dearly.

The housing bust has exposed just how much Americans were relying on rising home values to pad spending and replace traditional savings. During the five-year real estate boom that ended in late 2006, household wealth expanded, retail sales grew faster than income, and savings dwindled.

more at:
 http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE4AD3A620081114?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

 Looks like the chickens are coming home to nest.

 Shorty Dawkins
Title: Japan
Post by: byron mc on November 17, 2008, 07:28:18 am
Quote
Benjamin Pedley, managing direct at LGT Investment Management, said on CNBC Monday that he expects the contraction in the Japanese economy to last as long as four quarters.

Japan enters first recession since 2001
Nov. 17, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Japan-enters-first-recession-since/story.aspx?guid=%7BF3D8117D%2DD0DC%2D4AA9%2DA48E%2D934DEE794FFB%7D


Quote
Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, has officially slipped into recession,
Japan’s Economy, World’s Second Largest, Is in Recession
November 16, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/business/worldbusiness/17yen.html
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: clarence on November 17, 2008, 06:52:56 pm
Quote
Looks like the chickens are coming home to nest.

 Shorty Dawkins

those ain't chickens, they're vultures.

clarence
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lightning on November 19, 2008, 09:37:08 am
From the latest LEAP2020/GEAB report abstract at this link (http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-29-is-available!-Phase-IV-of-the-Global-Systemic-crisis-Breakdown-of-the-Global-Monetary-System-by-summer-2009_a2435.html):

Quote
Sign of the times, the Financial Times has started to list the US federal state’s tangible assets: military bases, national parks, public buildings, museums, etc… everything has been evaluated for a total amount of approximately 1,500-billion USD, i.e. more or less the probable amount of the budget deficit in 2009 (see the detail of these assets in the chart below).

You can go to the link and scroll down to see that chart -- red pie chart titled "US Government Balance Sheet."  Or, let me sum up:

US Govt Assets as of September 2007 (in billions of US$)
Source: "US GOA" (Govt Accountability Office, presumably?) and Financial Times

Securities and Investments          100
Property, plant and equipment     691
Inventories                                277
Loans receivable                         232
Accounts and taxes receivable       88
Cash                                         128
Other                                         65

TOTAL                              $1,581 billion -- or $1.581 trillion

And these numbers were as of more than a year ago.  What's that "securities and investments" number looking like now?  And the "loans receivable" and "accounts and taxes receivable"?

Why do I get the feeling that this list is a financial statement for use in probate or (the mother of all) bankruptcies?...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Kregener on November 19, 2008, 10:21:17 am
(http://i152.photobucket.com/albums/s167/Kregener/Money/401250_f520.jpg)
Title: The recession in your state
Post by: byron mc on November 19, 2008, 11:50:08 am
Quote
The fact that states can't declare bankruptcy also supports their relatively strong ratings. That's one key reason why states have a higher median rating than cities, which can file for bankruptcy protection (as Vallejo, Calif., voted to do in May). What's good for states when it comes to easing their financial woes can also end up meaning more hardship for their cities as states push expenditures down to the local level.
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/1.0/sections/mag/fortune/americas_money/mag_FST24_graphic.gif)

The recession in your state
As the outlook worsens for local economies, we check in on your home state.
November 19, 2008
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/18/news/economy/states_recession.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008111904

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on November 20, 2008, 11:38:23 am
Clothing repairs supplies up.

Sewing machines fly off shelves as shoppers craft a make-do-and-mend Christmas  (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3458903/Sewing-machines-fly-off-shelves-as-shoppers-craft-a-make-do-and-mend-Christmas.html)

Quote
John Lewis, despite suffering from a sharp fall in overall sales, has sold 18 per cent more sewing machines and 40 per cent more buttons than a year ago. Dress pattern sales have shot up by 12 per cent.

Tesco has also reported a surge in the number of sewing machines and in shoe cleaning equipment as consumers look to cherish their clothes and shoes, rather than let them fall apart.

Julia Dudrenec, at the Welwyn Garden City outlet of John Lewis, said: "There are many first-timers coming into the haberdashery and dress fabrics departments asking for advice on how to create their own gifts.

ND
Title: Retailers revive layaway plans
Post by: byron mc on November 23, 2008, 02:12:28 pm
Quote
"As we moved toward a cashless society, layaway sort of moved into the shadows. But now it has come back as people are trying to avoid using their credit cards."

It is a sign of tightening credit and the struggling economy and is aimed at people with low to middle incomes who may have maxed-out their credit cards or face strict home budgets.
Quote
The concept of layaway originated in the Great Depression as a way for cash-poor customers to buy items. Nearly 80 years later, people in Ohio, Michigan, and elsewhere are struggling with their finances and layaway is providing a way to make purchases.
November 18, 2008
Retailers revive layaway plans in light of struggling economy
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081118/BUSINESS10/811180321/0/BUSINESS03


Kmart, which never ended layaway but didn't promote it, has made layaway the focus of its seasonal ad campaign. Sears, which kept layaway for jewelry only but did away with the service years ago, announced last week it was bringing layaway back for most items in response to customer demand.

 
Quote
The concept of layaway originated in the Great Depression as a way for cash-poor customers to buy items. Nearly 80 years later, people across the country are struggling with their finances and layaway is providing a way to make purchases.

At the Burlington Coat Factory store in South Toledo, Ohio, clerks were putting more than 30 boxes of items a day into layaway last August, but that has risen to more than 170 boxes per day, said manager Kim Wischow.
Hard times bring back layaway: Kmart, Sears push old purchasing option in marketing campaign
07 December 2008
http://www.heraldextra.com/content/view/291342/18/
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on November 23, 2008, 10:32:55 pm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20081114/bs_nf/63026

Sun Laying Off Up To 6,000 Workers in Restructuring

Nov 14, 3:46 pm ET

Sun Microsystems on Friday said it will lay off 15 to 18 percent of its workforce. The announcement comes as part of a series of changes the company is making as it continues an uphill struggle.

Beyond laying off up to 6,000 employees, Sun will also break up its software into new business groups -- Application Platform Software, Systems Platforms, and Cloud Computing & Developer Platforms. Sun's intention is to boost its open-source momentum and attract new sectors of the market that view technology as a competitive weapon.

Sun expects the changes to align its costs with the global economic climate and accelerate the introduction of compelling open-source innovations. But some analysts are skeptical that these changes will fix the internal problems.

"Today, we have taken decisive actions to align Sun's business with global economic realities and accelerate our delivery of key open-source platform innovations, from MySQL to Sun's latest Open Storage offerings," Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz said.
. . .
[/list]
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on November 26, 2008, 09:11:12 am
I thought about posting this in the Silly Stuff thread however it MUST be a sign of the Greater Depression when a job as the "School Cafeteria Lady" offers the most financial security! ^_^

Former adult star working at local school (http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=6519773)

Quote
In a interview with a local newspaper, Tuck defended her ability to work around children despite her past career.

But some are not convinced.

The school superintendent says the district is investigating all of it's options to see what sort of recourse it has.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 26, 2008, 05:24:45 pm
I got a notice from my bank marked "Insufficient funds."

But do they mean me, or them?

-making the rounds.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on November 26, 2008, 07:02:15 pm
More news:


LandAmerica files for bankruptcy, sells businesses (http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE4AP1W420081126)

By Joseph A. Giannone Wed Nov 26, 2008
 
NEW YORK (Reuters) - LandAmerica Financial Group Inc [No. 3 U.S. title insurer] filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Wednesday and agreed to sell its largest underwriting businesses to Fidelity National Financial Inc, which withdrew a takeover bid for the title insurer last week.




Daimler, Cerberus spar over Chrysler (http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE4AP1UE20081126)

By Maria Sheahan and Kevin Krolicki Wed Nov 26, 2008


FRANKFURT/DETROIT (Reuters) - Private equity firm Cerberus is demanding more than $7 billion from Daimler AG over losses that followed its 2007 acquisition of Chrysler....

Daimler, which went public with the dispute on Wednesday, said that the demands by Cerberus had complicated talks over the sale of its remaining 19.9 percent of Chrysler.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on November 27, 2008, 06:14:45 pm
Meltdown far from over, new mortgage crisis looms By MATT APUZZO, AP

Text SizeAAAWASHINGTON -The full scope of the housing meltdown isn't clear and already there are ominous signs of a new crisis — one that could turn out the lights on malls, hotels and storefronts nationwide.
Even as the holiday shopping season begins in full swing, the same events poisoning the housing market are now at work on commercial properties, and the bad news is trickling in. Malls from Michigan to Georgia are entering foreclosure.
Hotels in Tucson, Ariz., and Hilton Head, S.C., also are about to default on their mortgages.
That pace is expected to quicken. The number of late payments and defaults will double, if not triple, by the end of next year, according to analysts from Fitch Ratings Ltd., which evaluates companies' credit.
"We're probably in the first inning of the commercial mortgage problem," said Scott Tross, a real estate lawyer with Herrick Feinstein in New Jersey.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/meltdown-far-from-over-new-mortgage/262008?cid=5

   Just when they thought they were starting to get a handle on things .......
Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on November 27, 2008, 09:17:32 pm

   Just when they thought  were claiming  they were starting to get a handle on things .......


... fixed it for you ...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 28, 2008, 08:04:11 am
Tent Cities (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tent_cities) in Ontario, CA (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/orange/la-me-tents18mar18,1,7073495.story?page=1); Seattle, WA (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/389745_hubert28.html); Victoria, BC (http://www.pej.org/html/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=7509&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0); Nashville, TN (http://www.wsmv.com/news/17950221/detail.html#-); Chattanooga, TN; Columbus, OH; Athens, GA;  Reno, NV; San Diego, CA.

Can Obamavilles (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville) be far behind?

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on November 28, 2008, 08:34:05 am
Tent Cities (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tent_cities) in Ontario, CA (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/orange/la-me-tents18mar18,1,7073495.story?page=1); Seattle, WA (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/389745_hubert28.html); Victoria, BC (http://www.pej.org/html/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=7509&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0); Nashville, TN (http://www.wsmv.com/news/17950221/detail.html#-); Chattanooga, TN; Columbus, OH; Athens, GA;  Reno, NV; San Diego, CA.

Can Obamavilles (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville) be far behind?

Peace,

Silver

I know you're trying to keep up with all the change brought by the messiah but you simply must get with the party line, Comrade Silver! :rolleyes:

There will be no Obamavilles! There will only be Bushvilles! (these are fundamental spin!) There will be no more "stimulus"! There will only be an "Economic Recovery Program"! This is per the high priests of the messiah, Pelosi & Emanuel! http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/washington/26words.html?ref=business
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on November 28, 2008, 08:42:24 am
From Alton's linked article:

Quote
“ ‘Stimulus’ is Washington talk, and ‘economic recovery’ is how the American people think of it,” said Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff for the incoming White House team.

 :sign10: :sign10: :sign10: :sign10: :sign10: :puke:

From everything I hear, the words the "American people think of it" couldn't be printed in the NY Times.

Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on December 02, 2008, 09:41:58 am
Gasoline prices too low? Big oil mulls mothballing some of the countries refineries!

Bleak outlook for U.S. oil refiners (http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/12/01/bleak-outlook-for-us-oil-refiners/)

Quote
As a result, there is an increasingly wide gap between system capacity and actual throughput. More than 2.0 million bpd of crude distillation capacity is sitting idle. The last time the refining system had more than 1 million bpd of spare capacity was in the early 1990s, when refiners responded by mothballing facilities and closing plants, cutting capacity by more than 500,000 bpd between 1992 and 1994 (https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphic s/US_RFRTB1208.gif).

Even with refinery shutdowns, the long-term outlook is bleak. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects gasoline consumption will increase from around 142 billion gallons in 2006 to 151 billion gallons in 2030 (based on an increasing population and rising car use, partly offset by improved fuel efficiency).

Not quite what Big Oil was screaming for six months ago. Then it was environment-be-damned, build more oil refineries NOW!

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 02, 2008, 01:26:21 pm

If I owned oil refineries, I would consider some slack time a gift. I would do the
repair and upgrades that couldn't be done during more 'normal' times when things
are running at full-tilt-boogey.

But them I'm a pretty rational guy.  :thinking:

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 02, 2008, 10:27:48 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3527803/Recession-When-the-money-goes-so-does-the-toxic-wife.html
Excerpt:
By Tara Winter Wilson   Last Updated: 7:31PM GMT 26 Nov 2008
The Toxic Wife, first identified in these pages almost two years ago, is a particular and terrifying species.

Not to be confused with the stay-at-home mother who selflessly devotes herself to the upbringing of her children, with all the housework and domestic chores that entails, the Toxic Wife is the woman who gives up work as soon as she marries, ostensibly to create a stable home environment for any offspring that might come along, but who then employs large numbers of staff to do all the domestic work she promised to undertake, leaving her with little to do all day except shop, lunch and luxuriate.
Having married her wealthy husband with his considerable salary uppermost in her mind, the Toxic Wife simply does not do "for richer, for poorer". Little Dorrit, she ain't.

Indeed, lawyers and financial advisers have reported a 50 per cent increase in the number of divorce inquiries since the financial markets collapsed in September.
A recent survey conducted by community website makefriendsonline revealed that a third of 10,000 respondents believe that financial hardship will cause a relationship to fail, while matrimonial law specialists Mishcon de Reya have reported up to 300 per cent more inquiries.
Numbers have risen significantly as couples seek to reach an agreement before the recession tightens its grip. But for the Toxic Wife, "agreement" is the last thing on her mind.

There are countless stories of them acting in the most bizarre and inhumane ways. For gold-diggers are materialistic to such an extent that they are emotionally detached from other people.
There's an inability to empathise with another human being. They certainly don't ''do'' conscience. Money, on the other hand, they both love and understand.

''I told my wife to stop this organic food malarkey,'' said Jeremy, a beleaguered hedge-fund manager, another man who fell for an extremely beautiful yet extravagant woman.
"She went ballistic. Organic Hass avocados cost £1.75 each and she wanted me to buy six of them! In the end, I just peeled off the labels that said they were certified organic and put them on ordinary avocados – she didn't notice the difference. I did the same with bananas…''
''So why did she walk out on you?'' I asked.
''She has a very high standard of living,'' he said. ''She's never taken the Tube or a bus; it's always taxis. And she likes to eat out a lot, at the best restaurants, and she likes to buy expensive gifts for people she wants to impress.
"As soon as the financial wobbles started, she must have joined some upmarket dating agency because somehow she's found another very rich man pretty damn fast.''

Another case is Sasha who, for the past few months, had been gloating about the £3.4 million chalet in Verbier her husband was about to exchange on, how she'd managed to hire a high-society interior decorator to do it up for a song (''more an anthem, actually", she'd giggled) and how much she was looking forward to a white, snowy Christmas there.
At the last minute, Husband pulled out of the deal. Never mind that he had lost his lucrative job in the City, she felt he had deliberately traumatised her and is suing him for divorce on the grounds of mental cruelty. '

Like a frog, the Toxic Wife needs to hop safely on to another lily pad, and a rich one, before leaving her husband. She won't stand on her own two feet. And finding a job is quite beneath her.
Yet Susie Ambrose thinks such women ''are like businessmen – utterly ruthless". The rich man is the career path, the meal ticket, and it doesn't matter how fat, old, balding or unattractive he is – it's solely about money.
''These particular women know how to fake love,'' adds Ambrose. ''They're actually very good at it.''
She now has a waiting-list for her life-coaching sessions – a course costs between £10,000-£60,000 – on how to distinguish a gold-digger from a genuine woman.

Men, it seems, have got wise to the potential Toxic Wife and don't want to end up with someone who is going to bolt the moment they experience some financial bad luck.
For men, divorce is one of the most expensive trials in life – emotionally and financially. As the joke doing the rounds among City men goes: "This credit crunch is worse than a divorce. I've lost half my net worth and I still have a wife."
More at link
Title: the collateral lender even for rich and famous - Pawn Shops
Post by: byron mc on December 05, 2008, 09:29:47 am
Quote
In this economy, the rich and famous have a new destination: the collateral lender. Or in everyday terms, the pawn shop.

Jordan Tabach-Bank is the CEO of a Beverly Loan, pawnbroker to the stars.
"The A-listers usually come in to shop, the B-listers come in to loan," she says.


Thanks to tight credit at the bank, the rich are in a crunch, now offering their jewels as collateral for up to seven-figure loans. At Beverly Loan, they usually charge 4 percent monthly interest, and in 70 years of doing business, they have never loaned so much.

Quote
In a Beverly Hills garage, business is also in high gear for pawnbroker Yossi Dina.
In a town where image is everything, some in the moneyed elite just can not bear the shame of it all. So they're asking to meet out here in the alley to get their loans on the sly.
"You don't see desperation, but you can feel it," says Mr Dina.

Beverly Hills elite turning to pawnbrokers to maintain lifestyle
05 Dec 2008
http://www.3news.co.nz/News/InternationalNews/Beverly-Hills-elite-turning-to-pawnbrokers-to-maintain-lifestyle/tabid/417/articleID/83125/cat/61/Default.aspx


Pawn shops across the country are doing record business this year. Go inside one pawn shop in Annapolis, Md.
4:32 length video
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97541776#


Quote
Shelton added. “It’s just been picking up really good for the past few weeks.”
customers are beginning to sell a more varied array of wares, like video game consoles, stereo speakers and sports equipment.
“I wouldn’t say we’ve seen any more sellers than normal,” she said. “But what I have seen is people getting rid of a greater variety of things.
As utility bills climb, consumers turn to pawn shops for extra cash
November 15, 2008
http://www.cdispatch.com/articles/2008/11/16/local_news/area_news/area01.txt


Quote
tools. A year ago, this pawn shop says they couldn't keep tools on the shelves, but with the constrution business slower, they have tools waiting to be bought.
Nov 25, 2008
http://www.wtvr.com/Global/story.asp?S=9414738
Title: Online rental marketplaces
Post by: byron mc on December 05, 2008, 01:36:13 pm
Quote
Online rental marketplaces provide an Internet platform for individuals and hire companies to rent out their wares -- like a rental version of eBay.

Quote
Gary Cige, 28, co-founder of Zilok (uk.zilok.com), says individuals are renting out more and more of their personal belongings to earn pocket money.
A Paris-based member of his website has rented his single lens reflex camera out several times, earning around 800 euros ($1,015) in 9 months. Another member has made around 600 euros in 3 to 4 months by renting his camera, roller blades and game console.

"It costs a lot less to rent an object you do not intend to use much than to buy it. And if you own that object you can also earn money by renting it out. So there is a double advantage, both for the person who owns and for the person who doesn't."


At the moment, some companies can't get credit from banks because the latter are very skeptical, so the company says, 'okay, I need this machine for some jobs I have to do', and then they hire it out," he said.


Erento, which he founded in 2003 and which now has around 470,000 registered hirers
Dec 5, 2008
http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE4B44DE20081205

It's not just for luxury goods but companies renting more as well.
gulch business? Online rental marketplace

Not sure how much different this would be than to just use Craigslist in your area.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 08, 2008, 09:35:24 am
U.S. dollar rally may stall at the start of 2009
By Vivianne Rodrigues - Analysis
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSTRE4B36WI20081204

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The reality of low interest rates and deep economic recession should finally start to catch up with the U.S. dollar in 2009, after risk aversion and de-leveraging helped push the currency to multi-year highs.

The advance -- which has pushed the dollar up almost 20 percent against a basket of six currencies .DXY since July -- is "artificial" and may subside once extreme risk aversion eases and global markets stabilize, analysts said.

"Foundations for the dollar's recent rally have not been solid. The result of repatriation, deleveraging, quantitative easing and a major scarcity of dollars," said Bob Sinche, head of global FX and rate strategy at The Bank of America in New York. "But now we are bound for a correction."

Sinche said euro/dollar may be trading at 1.38 by the end of December and that the dollar may rapidly dip to 1.44 to the euro by the first quarter of 2009 before the pair resumes a "more gradual sell-off."

The European currency was last trading in New York at $1.2804 compared with a record high of $1.6038 touched on July 15. Demand for the greenback rose as the financial crisis deepened and even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates while the economy slowed.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   The dollar has dropped .0201 against the Euro today. Dow Chemical announced 5,000 layoffs, and twenty plant closings.
   Layoffs continue. Could the dollar's drop be a sign the unwinding is near an end? Time will tell.

   Shorty Dawkins
Title: Signs of the Greater Depression: The Remains of Detroit
Post by: Silver on December 08, 2008, 03:37:10 pm
The Remains of Detroit (http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1864272,00.html)

This photo essay concentrates on just a few buildings, but I've been to Detroit several times in the past few years, and I can attest that it looks like it's been hit by neutron bombs.  Block upon block of deserted or bulldozed buildings.  Cops parking tanks on the sidewalk. Stores with empty shelves.  It reminds me of Leningrad when I visited in 1990.  The Soviet Union collapsed just over a year later.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression: The Remains of Detroit
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 08, 2008, 04:25:26 pm
The Remains of Detroit (http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1864272,00.html)

This photo essay concentrates on just a few buildings, but I've been to Detroit several times in the past few years, and I can attest that it looks like it's been hit by neutron bombs.  Block upon block of deserted or bulldozed buildings.  Cops parking tanks on the sidewalk. Stores with empty shelves.  It reminds me of Leningrad when I visited in 1990.  The Soviet Union collapsed just over a year later.
Peace,
Silver


I once stumbled across a website called "The fabulous ruins of Detroit". The successor website is:
http://detroityes.com/index.html  .  I visited Detroit in 1968 just after the riots, and again in 1996. I saw the same neighborhoods that were burned out in 67, and they had not been rebuilt. This was unbelievable to me. Where else in this country would whole neighborhoods remain completely destroyed for thirty (now forty) years ?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression The Great Go-no-go
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 09, 2008, 02:12:19 pm
Included in the recent Marc Faber newsletter, comments on the world economic conditions and central bank actions by the Central Bank of Zimbabwe.

Recent comments from Dr. G. Gono, chairman of the Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe (no hoax):
 
"As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in
the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the
USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually
implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes
where these are deemed necessary in their National interests. 
...That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit
of our national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path
despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification, and demonization
we have endured from across the political divide. 
...Here in Zimbabwe we had our near-bank failures a few years ago and
we responded by providing the affected Banks with the Troubled Bank
Fund (TBF) for which we were heavily criticized even by some multi-
lateral institutions who today are silent when the Central Banks of UK
and USA are going the same way and doing the same thing under very
similar circumstances thereby continuing the unfortunate hypocrisy that
what's good for goose is not good for the gander. 
...As Monetary Authorities, we commend those of our peers, the world
over, who have now seen the light on the need for the adoption of flexible
and practical interventions and support to key sectors of the economy
when faced with unusual circumstances."
Dr. Marc Faber                            Market Commentary December 1, 2008
 
    The problem with the “practical interventions and support to key
sectors of the economy” is of course that the market mechanism is badly
disturbed by such measures and that the interventions are, as in the case
of Zimbabwe, in the long run highly inflationary. For instance, I doubt
that considering the large and growing budget deficits and the costs
associated with the various bailouts the US will ever again have positive
real interest rates – at least not until the system breaks down and a new
monetary order is introduced, which will be run by real central bankers
(ideally even without them) and will not be managed by some academics
who in their insanity have become money printers. As Walter Bagehot
stated, “the whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and
institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.”


Amazing.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 09, 2008, 08:09:40 pm
We are now doing what the Zimbabwean central bank did 4 years ago ? 
Well THAT makes me feel better.  :rolleyes:
My personal finances aren't as bad as the federal government's.
And I don't even have a JOB !
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah !
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on December 10, 2008, 04:33:53 pm
Pick your prognosticator --> http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/5.html
Hurry in! Depression Selections are now limited to Medium, Bad and Worst.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on December 11, 2008, 11:52:10 am
Oops! Seems Russia is flirting with collapse again... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_W0d8XewdGY&refer=home

Meanwhile...back in the USSA, seems consumers ain't a consumin' enuf!  http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ftdpress.pdf

This seems to making truckers blood pressure go up a bit...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122895724389896631.html
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 11, 2008, 02:55:37 pm

Similar to what ND was posting earlier, Maersk is laying up ships (posted through Survivalblog, but I had read it elsewhere as well.. either Al-Jazeera or BBC):

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article5315446.ece

"Maersk, the world's leading container shipping line, has slashed the rates it charges for transporting containers on its Asia-America routes and last week the Danish company said that it was laying up eight vessels amid worsening market conditions."


And, as a sign of the times..:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2007/12/jesus-saved-by.html

"News out of -- where else -- Florida: In 2006, thieves stole two statues of the baby Jesus from a display in front of the Wellington Community Center -- even though, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports, the little guy was strapped in with a cable. "They're expensive," Paul Schofield, the village's community services director, told the newspaper -- noting that the statues cost $400 a pop.

So the village tried to do something about it this year. They implanted a small GPS tracking device on the statue -- which, sure enough, was subsequently stolen late Wednesday. The tracking device was activated, and Jesus was found in a house a short distance from the community center.

Police subsequently arrested Danielle Santino, 18, of Lake Worth, Fla. and charged her with grand theft. She was still in jail late Thursday.

"I stole Jesus," she told police, according to the newspaper."



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on December 11, 2008, 05:38:20 pm
Things are so bad here that even the birds are going back to Mexico, no kidding i seen literally thousands flying south on my way to work this morning.
Title: local high school football
Post by: byron mc on December 13, 2008, 10:33:08 am
Quote
revenue for football dropped by nearly $5,000, which means about 200 fewer people per game attended Strasburg's home football contests this year than in 2007.

Quote
Any dip in gate receipts is critical to a high school athletic program, especially when considering what athletic directors term "hidden costs."
If James Wood's school division cuts funds for 2009-10, Salyer will have less money to dole out to Woshner's athletic programs.
Schools will have to decide whether to purchase overhead projectors and easels, or footballs and rosin bags.

The cuts could be severe.

"The ultimate drastic move is when you start cutting programs," Fannin said.
November 29, 2008
http://www.nvdaily.com/preps/293205551328514.bsp



Quote
High school coaches in the district got an email earlier this week warning that football, soccer and all other sports will likely be eliminated
Outrage Over District Plan To Cut Sports Program
December 11, 2008, SAN JOSE, Calif
http://www.ktvu.com/news/18261602/detail.html#-


Quote
It didn't take long for one California school district to figure an easy way to balance their budget during our economic tsunami; eliminate all high school sports.
The East Side Union High School District in San Jose — which includes 11 high schools with 40 teams competing in 23 sports — has basically told parents that if they don't come up with $2 million, by 2010 all of their high school athletics will be gone.

In five years we'll be like Europe, with no athletics tied to schools, just club teams. And your son will be named Dieter.
http://deadspin.com/5108866/high-school-sports-apocolypse-closer-than-you-think

In a country where there are scholarships not based on academic performance but on athletic performance this is huge.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 16, 2008, 10:50:57 am
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v391/dogsledder54/beb.jpg)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on December 16, 2008, 11:32:32 am
Conch Republic fishermen report dockside shellfish prices have plummeted by 50%.

Dockside shellfish prices plummet (http://www.bradenton.com/331/story/1096600.html)

Quote
Dockside prices paid for whole spiny lobster have crashed from nearly $8 per pound at the peak earlier this year to less than $4 per pound in some areas, according to fishermen.

Fishermen reached by the Keynoter this week said they’ve been paid from $4.25 to $5 per pound — although some reports from Key West said fishermen have been offered as little as $3.50.

A legal-sized Florida lobster generally weighs one pound.

“Everybody is starting to wonder what’s going on,” Key Largo fisherman commercial Ernie Piton said. “It’s been a hard year for everybody, and Christmas is coming.”

One lobsterman said he sold a good daily catch of more than 200 pounds — but his buyer told him that it would be the last purchase of that size he could accept.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on December 16, 2008, 03:20:54 pm
So.......er uh...........where's the tickle me elmo and the cabbage patch kids this year?

Folks might not think that's any big deal.......but ya' know...........it says much more than any articles about big banks and their lending practices does......becase it's down at the end consumer level.....
Trying to get folks to spend that last dollar in an impulsive manner to show love for their children and relatives........
If there's no confidence that folks can't be persuaded to part with their money to show their love...... and these overpriced last minute products don't hit the market, then things are an awful lot worse than what any  serious economist can describe........
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 16, 2008, 03:29:04 pm
Good point, Zoot. No Tickle Me Elmo, .... that says a lot.

The dollar lost 4 cents against the Euro today. 1.7 cents against the yen and 2.0 cents against the Pound. Not good. The dollar has tanked quite a bit lately.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 16, 2008, 03:53:50 pm

It took me a minute to comprehend that.

You're right Zoot (and Shorty).. There is no "Gotta Have it" toy this year.  All there is is a rehash of previous years stuff, "now with a new hat!"

I don't generally buy them anyways.

This year, the Fiancee is getting a really nice oil lamp, socks, a silver necklace and a box of 9mm ammo.  To build togetherness.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on December 16, 2008, 05:34:54 pm
And the hits just keep on comin'!
Bankruptcies are up 30% --> http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081216/NEWS02/812160454
43 States in deep doo-doo --> http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2008/12/11/Report_43_states_in_financial_trouble/UPI-13211229042295/

Here's a bit of military think-tank blather. It's a *.pdf . Text page 32/*.pdf pg. 40 makes an interesting observation about US troops possibly being needed on US soil due to possible civil unrest: --> Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development   http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/Pubs/Display.Cfm?pubID=890
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on December 16, 2008, 06:41:58 pm
Quote
You're right Zoot (and Shorty).. There is no "Gotta Have it" toy this year.  All there is is a rehash of previous years stuff, "now with a new hat!"

So take a few steps back and look at how the lack of something with the seeming insignificance ofTickle me Elmo this year reflects upon the health of the entire market.......particularly in the capital investments allocated to research and new product development and the risk associated with such....
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 17, 2008, 09:10:09 am
The dollar continues to drop:

Euro (in USD)1.43510  +.0301   +2.14%
Yen (per USD)87.37   -1.61       1.81%

Faster than a speeding bullet.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on December 18, 2008, 02:35:08 pm
Ankeny, IA uses spice company's surplus garlic salt as road de-icer.

Iowa town's roads well seasoned (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-ia-garlicroadsalt,0,1742019.story)

Quote
Slush has never smelled so spicy.

City crews in the Des Moines suburb of Ankeny are using garlic salt to melt snow and ice on streets from Tuesday's storm.

The salt was donated by Tone Brothers Inc., a top spice producer headquartered in Ankeny.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 21, 2008, 08:44:28 am
IMF head worried about lack of fiscal stimulus

The IMF has called for fiscal stimulus -- higher government spending and temporary tax cuts -- worth $120 trillion, or 2 percent of global annual economic output, to fill the gap caused by slumping private demand following the credit crunch.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BK0FM20081221

A hundred trillion here, a hundred trillion there, pretty soon we're talking serious money. (To paraphrase Mr. Dirksen.)

Shorty Dawkins
Title: FITCHBURG, Mass. robberies doubled / overcrowded animal shelters nationwide
Post by: byron mc on December 22, 2008, 12:09:55 pm
Quote
In the past 2½ months, Fitchburg has been hit by 22 robberies, an unprecedented number for any similar time period in a city where, the chief says, three or four robberies a month are the norm.
Some of the targets have been stores where offenders have taken food and clothing in addition to money.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-12-21-crime-and-economy_N.htm

also in the same national newspaper:
Quote
The population growth at animal shelters in Connecticut, Nebraska, Texas, Utah and other states shows how the weak economy is also shrinking the pool of potential adopters.

The effect has been cramped quarters for dogs and cats, a faster rate of shelters euthanizing animals and some shelters turning away people looking to surrender pets, according to interviews with several shelters and animal advocates.
As economy sinks, more people give up pets
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-12-21-meltdown-pets_N.htm

Recession has meant overcrowded animal shelters across nation
http://www.nebraska.tv/Global/story.asp?S=9558641&nav=menu605_2
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on December 22, 2008, 05:56:16 pm
Just received the following via email under the subject heading "Sad Announcement":

Quote
Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, The Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.

We apologize for any inconvenience

 :laugh: Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 23, 2008, 01:10:47 am
   At work there was an informational bulletin. It seems Flying J truck stops just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The Truck Stops will remain open as they restructure. Lack of credit availability was cited, along with the drop in crude oil prices (they recently bought a refinery).

 I meant to make a copy of the report, but will do so tomorrow.

   Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on December 23, 2008, 08:23:43 am
   At work there was an informational bulletin. It seems Flying J truck stops just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

You know how sometimes a factoid or a news item will really hit home, even though a dozen just like it have left you unmoved? That's my reaction, Shorty, to your news about Flying J.

When I travel, Flying J defines the stages of the journey. I might not always stop there, but where there's a Flying J along those empty, sagebrushy highways, there's an oasis. There's civilization. There's rest.

And Flying J's are always so busy -- day and night, any time of year. To think of them going bankrupt gives me way more shudders than any news about Citigroup or Lehman Brothers ever did.

Yeah, I know it's just a reorganization. But still ...

Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 23, 2008, 08:37:11 am
Quote
You know how sometimes a factoid or a news item will really hit home, even though a dozen just like it have left you unmoved? That's my reaction, Shorty, to your news about Flying J.

When I travel, Flying J defines the stages of the journey. I might not always stop there, but where there's a Flying J along those empty, sagebrushy highways, there's an oasis. There's civilization. There's rest.

And Flying J's are always so busy -- day and night, any time of year. To think of them going bankrupt gives me way more shudders than any news about Citigroup or Lehman Brothers ever did.

Yeah, I know it's just a reorganization. But still ...

Claire

"Ditto"

When I used to make my weekly sojourn to Mordor, the Flying J south of Sacramento was where I would stop
to refill the van's tanks and empty my own. They had decent food, friendly people, and if the weather was rotten,
it was a safe place to overnight.

I think the 'capital class', or the 'money class', or whatever you want to call the people who normally loan money
to businesses are cutting their own throats. By losing their nerve exactly at the moment when a little courage is
needed, they will end up destroying capitalism in America. The new administration will 'solve' this problem, and
the negative side effects will be with us long after this crisis has passed. Idiots.

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 23, 2008, 09:59:06 am

Here is the news form Flying J themselves:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
On December 22, 2008, Flying J Inc. and its Big West refining and Longhorn Pipeline subsidiaries filed voluntary petitions to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.  The filing was made with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. 

The scope of the filing is limited to these operations only.  It does not apply to other business units or affiliates, or the company's Canadian operations.  In all cases, including those subsidiaries covered by the filing, Flying J's operations remain open and are conducting business as usual.

Even though Flying J has been a successful company, it faced near-term liquidity pressure from an unprecedented combination of factors: the precipitous drop in the price of oil and the lack of available financing from its traditional sources due to disrupted credit markets.  With a sudden and unanticipated inability to meet its liquidity needs, the company had no other choice than a Chapter 11 filing to provide the time to work through a solution.

Flying J’s objective is to move through the reorganization process as quickly as possible and to work toward a solution that will address its short-term liquidity needs and allow it to meet its past obligations in full.
 
http://www.flyingj.com/flyingjPortalWebProject/flyingjPortal.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=flyingjPortal_portal_page_26_page_27&_subpage=15

All I left at the link is some links to information on thier restructuring.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on December 23, 2008, 10:56:40 am
I certainly wish the owners and creditors of Flying J the best of luck in finding a speedy and fair way to restructure the firm and its debts.

I'm not sure this can be laid at the feet of greedy, fearful capitalists.  Flying J purchased refinery operations and an oil pipeline in the past few years.  They almost certainly financed those purchases with debt, and since pipelines and refineries are extremely expensive, the amount of debt is probably quite large.  The purchases were made during the credit boom, when loans were cheap and easy to obtain.  With the collapse of oil prices from over $140 to under $40 in just a few short months, both the revenues from fuel sales and refinery operations as well as the value of the assets have plummeted.  Their notes and the payments owed on them did not.

The business assumptions, revenue projections, and other calculations that were used to justify the purchases have been proven incorrect.  Now Flying J must retrench, re-plan, and move forward.

That's why what we are experiencing is called a correction.  The mistakes and mal-investments that were made due to the artificially low price of money are exposed, and must be corrected.  Had the market been allowed to set the price of money, rather than the federal reserve, it is nearly certain that a well-run company would either have delayed the purchases, or paid more in cash and taken on less debt, and increased reserves against unforeseen events.  The blame lies not on timid investors, but on the criminal enterprise called the federal reserve, and the government that is sustained by its myriad deceptions and thefts.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 23, 2008, 12:02:09 pm
Quote
That's why what we are experiencing is called a correction.  The mistakes and mal-investments that were made due to the artificially low price of money are exposed, and must be corrected.  Had the market been allowed to set the price of money, rather than the federal reserve, it is nearly certain that a well-run company would either have delayed the purchases, or paid more in cash and taken on less debt, and increased reserves against unforeseen events.  The blame lies not on timid investors, but on the criminal enterprise called the federal reserve, and the government that is sustained by its myriad deceptions and thefts.

Silver,

My comment about timid investors was not directed at the Flying J situation in particular, but the credit market in general.
I should have made that more clear. My thinking is that there are some folks out there with money to invest, who have been
supplying credit to their customers, who are still in business and making money (although less, maybe), and by being afraid
to lend to them, they are creating the very problem they hope to avoid.

I think if Flying J can get through the near term, their purchase of a refinery may not be a bad thing, as the drop in the
price of oil is likely to be temporary.

As far as your comment about government, no argument from me...

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on December 23, 2008, 12:42:18 pm
We're probably in violent agreement here, but I'll elaborate a bit.

I'm a person who has money to invest.  But investing is hard work, and risky.  It's particularly risky when a new government has already telegraphed its intention to destroy the economy by attacking the energy industry.  They've appointed zealots who make public statements about hating oil and coal to high offices.  They promise to harass, fine, tax, and shut down the plants that provide well over half of the energy used in the entire economy, and replace them with dangerous, unproven, costly alternatives that have never been able to compete on price, scale, or reliability.   These idiots can and probably will do tremendous damage to our prosperity and way of life.

Just to make things worse, this same crowd has put a cross-hair on the neck of everyone who has enough money to invest.  They want to "spread the wealth around," meaning take that "extra" money that might have been invested.  I could go on at length, but won't.

So rather than an investor, I am a saver.  I save mostly in gold, as I think the value of FRNs is likely to plummet in the not-too-distant future. 

Gold is not an investment.  It just sits there.  It pays no dividends.  It costs money to transport it and store it safely.  Gold preserves wealth, and is a great way to save, but it does not produce jobs or an ongoing stream of revenue, the way a successful investment can.

Someday perhaps I will feel more secure about risking a little bit of the savings I presently have in gold, and I will make an investment.  Either in my own business or in another business, like Flying J.  But for right now, I think it would be very dangerous to make any investment of any kind.  The risks are extraordinary and the returns would have to be extraordinary to justify those risks. 

This is how an honest economy works.  Free people save.  As their savings grow, and they get older, their confidence about being able to handle emergencies and live a comfortable old age grows.  Eventually some feel confident enough to be willing to risk some of their savings in investments.  The growing amount of money in savings results in a smaller but still growing amount of money available for investments. 

Other savers, when feeling more confident, will spend some of their savings on consumption.  This drives up the price of the things they consume.  The market price signals the need for new products and provides entrepreneurs a means to produce things that can be sold for more than their cost of production.

This is not how our debt and credit Ponzi economy works. Money for consumption and investments is created from thin air. Savings are confiscated via taxation and inflation.  No one can ever feel confident about their savings, so in desperation they place big bets on stocks and other more exotic instruments that they don't understand.  For a while, everyone seems to be doing well, as the constant increase in the supply of debt and credit acts on the market just like a constant increase in savings.  This sends false signals to entrepreneurs and investors alike.  Projects are started when not enough demand exists.  People start risking their money not because they are confident, but because they are afraid.  Fearful people consume less, save more, and when that reality finally sets in, the malinvestments are exposed and the correction begins.

That is what we are living through right now, a massive correction made much worse by decades of deliberately delaying the healing power of a good correction.  Now we must live through the mother of all corrections, and who knows what the world will look like in few years? 

This is not a time for investing, it is a time for savings. That is my opinion, and for once I seem to be in the majority.  There are always contrarians, and thank goodness, for they keep the markets working.  Good luck to them.  Perhaps they will be proven correct, this really is a bottom and a good time to invest.  But I don't think so, not yet, not by a long shot.

Flying J's investments in pipelines and refineries could be sensible and profitable; they certainly seem to be a natural extension of the business, which they clearly know and operate very well.  I agree the the drop in the price of oil is probably temporary.  The owners of Flying J (it is one of the largest privately held companies in the world) may look like geniuses a few years from now.  I hope so, I always like to see free-market businesses thrive.

Peace,

Silver

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 23, 2008, 02:00:52 pm
No bottom in sight:

U.S. Economy: Housing Prices Collapse at Near-Depression Pace

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom.

Purchases of both new and existing houses dropped 7.6 percent, the biggest decline since January 1989, to an annual rate of 4.43 million, government and industry figures showed today. A 13 percent drop in the median resale price was the most since records began in 1968 and was likely the largest since the 1930s, the National Association of Realtors said.

“Housing is still in a freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The figures were worse than economists had forecast and signal that the battered housing market that led the economy into a recession may be taking another lurch down. Sliding property values mean more Americans will be under water on their mortgages, destroying household wealth and undermining consumers’ purchasing power.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ7HBEgYCzUE&refer=home
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 24, 2008, 08:41:49 am
Riots expanding through emerging economies and established ones. Civil protest is breaking out in cities across Russia, China, and beyond.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:39PM GMT 20 Dec 2008
Greece has been in turmoil for 11 days. The mood seems to have turned "pre-insurrectionary" in parts of Athens - to borrow from the Marxist handbook.

This is a foretaste of what the world may face as the "crisis of capitalism" - another Marxist phase making a comeback - starts to turn two hundred million lives upside down.

We are advancing to the political stage of this global train wreck. Regimes are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to mask a lack of democratic or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain time by the usual methods: trade barriers, saber-rattling, and barbed wire.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, is worried enough to ditch a half-century of IMF orthodoxy, calling for a fiscal boost worth 2pc of world GDP to "prevent global depression".

"If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries, including advanced economies. We are facing an unprecedented decline in output. All around the planet, the people have reacted with feelings going from surprise to anger, and from anger to fear," he said...

full story

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3870089/Protectionist-dominoes-are-beginning-to-tumble-across-the-world.html


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on December 24, 2008, 08:47:23 am
From the man who promised us that we would cheer the potty bowl blues entering Los Angeles, Kissinger is perhaps the greatest threat on earth for individual liberty.


Kissinger Calls For New International System Out Of World Crises
Published on 12-20-2008   
http://blacklistednews.com/?news_id=2696
By Steve Watson

Bilderberg luminary Henry Kissinger has repeated his routine call for a new international political order, stating that global crises should be seen as an opportunity to move toward a borderless world where national interests are outweighed by global necessities.

Speaking with Charlie Rose earlier this week, Kissinger cited the chaos being wrought across the globe by the financial crisis and the spread of terrorism as an opportunity to bolster a new global order.

"I think that when the new administration assess the position in which it finds itself it will see a huge crisis and terrible problems, but I can see that it could see a glimmer in which it could construct an international system out of it." Kissinger said, referring to the transition between the Bush and Obama administrations....

Full story

http://blacklistednews.com/?news_id=2696

(Slow to boot and sorry if this is the wrong thread no hijack intended)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 24, 2008, 07:17:42 pm
Silver, in replies #83 and #85 you did an excellent job of explaining the situation. I commend you and recommend a re-reading to any who did a "speed-read" of it.

Mal-investments are very much a part of a healthy economy in the most successful socio-economic model the world has seen.

A visionary builds a multi-million dollar luxury hotel. He needs to recover $50,000 a week to cover the investment costs. He fails. The hotel finally sells for a penny-on-the-dollar. The new owner needs to cover $500 a week and does by opening a breakfast & dinner boarding house.

The visionary lost, but he will pick himself up and shoot for the stars somewhere else.  On his sixth try he will hit a home run (to throw one more metaphor into my stew).  Meanwhile, cheap old factory floors become paint-ball combat zones, department stores become thrift stores, luxury homes become boarding houses and partially-built subdivisions become great places to trot your dog from your bicycle or roller-blades.

The only thing that can mess this up is statism.  Unfortunately, THAT is just about guaranteed in this climate where the majority can take any damn thing they want and the ruling elite can tell them what to think.

Oh yeah, back to Flying J... So the managers made a bad bet.  Bad managers.  Bad schools they graduated from.  Bad prior managers who insisted on hiring and promoting MBAs from those bad schools.  GREAT opportunity for good managers and smart investors to pick up the pieces, taking a good solid core and turning it into a business that will be successful in the changing times it inhabits.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 24, 2008, 07:36:39 pm
For the last couple of days I have been reminded of this two-year-old debate from PBS (http://idahoptv.org/elections/2006/gendebates/gov/index.cfm) where the Democrat and Libertarian candidates for Idaho governor tried to express their vision for the four-year period we are in the middle of. 

While the guys getting most of the press were talking about spending the growing tax revenues, the Libertarian must have had some crystal ball. He was babbling about an economic downturn and the need to begin budget-tightening immediately.

The no-show Republican who ended up winning that race is suddenly scrambling to address "unforeseeable budgetary shortfalls". 

Idiots.

No, not the politicians, but those who elect 'em.


ONE QUESTION IQ TEST:
Are you buying beans, bullion and bullets?

This is a pass or fail test.  I'm not giving any hints.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: padre29 on December 24, 2008, 09:01:51 pm
For the last couple of days I have been reminded of this two-year-old debate from PBS (http://idahoptv.org/elections/2006/gendebates/gov/index.cfm) where the Democrat and Libertarian candidates for Idaho governor tried to express their vision for the four-year period we are in the middle of. 

While the guys getting most of the press were talking about spending the growing tax revenues, the Libertarian must have had some crystal ball. He was babbling about an economic downturn and the need to begin budget-tightening immediately.

The no-show Republican who ended up winning that race is suddenly scrambling to address "unforeseeable budgetary shortfalls". 

Idiots.

No, not the politicians, but those who elect 'em.


ONE QUESTION IQ TEST:
Are you buying beans, bullion and bullets?

This is a pass or fail test.  I'm not giving any hints.


Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on December 24, 2008, 09:15:11 pm
Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.

The media and the morons who got us into this mess (and are now pretending to get us out of it) talk as if deflation were instead of inflation. They either don't see -- or more likely don't want us to see -- that deflation could be a precursor to hyperinflation. Maybe. Maybe not.

I think a lot of ordinary people do perceive that falling prices aren't forever, and that all those trillions disappearing mysteriously into bankers' maws will have to be accounted for someday soon.. Or at least they know that things are unsettled enough to be shaking under their feet. I suspect there's a great lot of bean buying on. And we know there's a lot of bullet buying going on. And not all the bullet buying is from simple fear that Obama will take our guns.

Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on December 24, 2008, 09:19:04 pm
While the guys getting most of the press were talking about spending the growing tax revenues, the Libertarian must have had some crystal ball. He was babbling about an economic downturn and the need to begin budget-tightening immediately.

The no-show Republican who ended up winning that race is suddenly scrambling to address "unforeseeable budgetary shortfalls". 

I feel your frustration, slideman. Doesn't it just make your eyeballs pop out and roll around the floor when you hear stuff like that time and time and time again -- when you, and ordinary people around you, and hundreds of economists with real track records have known the trouble all along, and all these mainstreamers babble as if they never thought of it. And they're now going to LEAD us???

Arrgh.

Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: padre29 on December 24, 2008, 09:36:29 pm
Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.

The media and the morons who got us into this mess (and are now pretending to get us out of it) talk as if deflation were instead of inflation. They either don't see -- or more likely don't want us to see -- that deflation could be a precursor to hyperinflation. Maybe. Maybe not.

I think a lot of ordinary people do perceive that falling prices aren't forever, and that all those trillions disappearing mysteriously into bankers' maws will have to be accounted for someday soon.. Or at least they know that things are unsettled enough to be shaking under their feet. I suspect there's a great lot of bean buying on. And we know there's a lot of bullet buying going on. And not all the bullet buying is from simple fear that Obama will take our guns.

Claire

I think that people really are ready, willing, and hoping that the Obamao will make everything all better now..it's magik!

One of Bushies first legacies will not be the Iraq War or what have you, it is extreme Cynicism in the form of "What is in it for me"?

IMO, the masses could care less about Monetary Policy or Deflationary pressure priming the pump for hyper inflation, they want "theirs".

Now the fact that average hairless ape that poses as an American these days can never quite turn that cynicism into a real distrust of any politician is a testimony to what our Schools are producing today, after all, if New Orleans, a Quasi Socialist Fiefdom can be allowed to drown and Bush can be blamed instead of the FedGov as a whole, then anything is possible, just repeat it often enough..
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on December 25, 2008, 08:36:38 am
U.S. Economy: Home Prices Fall Near Depression Pace

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra


Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom.

Purchases of both new and existing houses dropped 7.6 percent from the prior month, the biggest decline since January 1989, to an annual rate of 4.43 million, government and industry figures showed today. A 13 percent drop in the median resale price from a year earlier was the most since records began in 1968 and was likely the largest since the 1930s, the National Association of Realtors said.

“Housing is still in a freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

more:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=adkUcqYlJVRA&refer=home


   Still no bottom. Who'd a thunk it?
   Shorty Dawkins WCR
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 25, 2008, 04:13:18 pm
Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.

I could watch television to be assured that inflation is not a problem, that THE ENEMY is deflation and that the bright boys our universities cranked out to create smokescreens for their patrons have it all under control

- OR -

I could study Austrian Economics, personally notice the rise in prices for avocados, zucchini, primers, tires, tools, nails, corn, wheat, electricity and the majority of the more useful things in my life and conclude that the time to prepare is either at hand or yesterday.

While it is true a whole lot of people, particularly the recently unemployed, don't have money to spend and a whole lot more are waking up to a fear they need to reduce their frivolous spending, far and away the biggest problem facing our economy is the runaway dollar factory known as The Fed.  Real soon they will be distributing those dollars in 12 packs of rolls... or might as well for the value they will represent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 27, 2008, 01:14:45 am

Back from the parents house.  Step-dad is a trucker.

He mentioned that one of the other big trucking companies laid off 17 drivers about a week before Christmas.  Not likely to return.  On the other hand, his company is so overbooked, they have begun subcontracting out to a load broker.

Mom is now the proud (not so much, really) owner of my step brother's rig.  He declared bankruptcy about two weeks ago.  She's now running the truck through a load broker for trips.  Not bad business there, gets three trips from Toronto to Montreal a week.  No idea what he's going to carry one load to another. 

Guess which company he carries most of his loads for? 

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Jebur27 on December 27, 2008, 04:43:26 am
Guess which company he carries most of his loads for? 

Wal-Mart?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lenny on December 27, 2008, 08:53:29 am
Guess which company he carries most of his loads for?

Canadian Tire?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 27, 2008, 11:30:57 am

He actually carries loads from the load broker who gets the surplus loads from my step father's company...

Who is big in Wal-Mart and Canadian Tire....

Good guesses Jebur and Lenny.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on December 27, 2008, 04:45:13 pm
Quote
Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.

Buying staples in advance of an enormous storm that is plainly visible on the horizon isn't faith, it is sound planning by free men who want to retain some control over their destiny. 

The first slugs of new money created by the fed were gargantuan, unprecedenting in human history.  Those funds are being dammed up right now, but the dam is leaking.

"Leak" is a dirty word around dams.  All dams seep; those that leak eventually fail.  The fed's dam will suffer the same fate.  Already the trickles are showing up in the money supply reports.  Soon the trickle will grow to a torrent, and very soon after that, almost without warning, the flood will be unleashed upon us all.  It will be more powerful and destructive than any dam burst in history.

The fed will respond to the destructive flood of money by creating more, as that is their only power.  The flood will grow until no one and no thing is untouched.

I have a dark vision.  The fools who elected an unknown who promised them "change" will get what they asked for, good and hard.  Obama will have the shortest honeymoon of any modern president, and then he will wreak havoc in the name of change.  Everything he does will only make things worse, but he will continue to destroy everything he can touch.

Change is upon us, and not for the better.  Bullets, beans, and magazines are a bargain at today's prices.  So are lightbulbs, canned goods, and gold.  Soon you won't be able to buy them at any price.  Act while you can.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: padre29 on December 27, 2008, 09:03:33 pm
Quote
Problem being, the sky has not fallen as of yet, in fact deflation is more or less occuring.

Buying Bullets, Beans, and Magazines is almost an act of faith at this point in time.

Buying staples in advance of an enormous storm that is plainly visible on the horizon isn't faith, it is sound planning by free men who want to retain some control over their destiny. 

The first slugs of new money created by the fed were gargantuan, unprecedenting in human history.  Those funds are being dammed up right now, but the dam is leaking.

"Leak" is a dirty word around dams.  All dams seep; those that leak eventually fail.  The fed's dam will suffer the same fate.  Already the trickles are showing up in the money supply reports.  Soon the trickle will grow to a torrent, and very soon after that, almost without warning, the flood will be unleashed upon us all.  It will be more powerful and destructive than any dam burst in history.

The fed will respond to the destructive flood of money by creating more, as that is their only power.  The flood will grow until no one and no thing is untouched.

I have a dark vision.  The fools who elected an unknown who promised them "change" will get what they asked for, good and hard.  Obama will have the shortest honeymoon of any modern president, and then he will wreak havoc in the name of change.  Everything he does will only make things worse, but he will continue to destroy everything he can touch.

Change is upon us, and not for the better.  Bullets, beans, and magazines are a bargain at today's prices.  So are lightbulbs, canned goods, and gold.  Soon you won't be able to buy them at any price.  Act while you can.

Peace,

Silver

Sort of Silver, that was a general comment on my part, aimed at the public in general.

The Feds do have a power, but politically, it is doubtful they will use it.

During Carter's reign, Paul Volker reduced both the money supply and increased interest rates..that effectively mopped up capital, it also led to double digit unemployment and interest rates..but it did snuff rampant inflation..                                                                     

Jimmuh also lost his re-election bid...politically speaking, Obamao doesn't have courage nor desire to implement.

I'm an alpha Strategist Silver, stockpiling is a tool of that philosophy.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 27, 2008, 10:11:13 pm
Here is the way I see it-
Deflation started when the investment banks and savings banks quit lending to businesses and each other. You could say
Deflation happened when the investment banks and savings banks quit lending to businesses and each other.
When the dust settles and the VALUE of debts is determined and bad debts are written off, lending will start again, and not before. Lending will resume when and if it is determined who is creditworthy.
Prices are going up for food, commodities, and such, but this will subside because of the current recession/depression.
Prices will fall.
Concurrently, the fiscal irresponsibility of governments and central banks in creating and using fiat currencies is catching up with them as reality rears its ugly head. The fiat currencies cannot be maintained forever any more than ANY fraudulent ponzi scheme.
The collapse of the fiat currencies will cause gold and silver to decouple from the commodities, and rise meteorically.
When PMs rise to a certain point, and prices fall to a certain point, it will be wise to trade your PMs for land or other property.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: padre29 on December 27, 2008, 10:49:18 pm
Here is the way I see it-
Deflation started when the investment banks and savings banks quit lending to businesses and each other. You could say
Deflation happened when the investment banks and savings banks quit lending to businesses and each other.
When the dust settles and the VALUE of debts is determined and bad debts are written off, lending will start again, and not before. Lending will resume when and if it is determined who is creditworthy.
Prices are going up for food, commodities, and such, but this will subside because of the current recession/depression.
Prices will fall.
Concurrently, the fiscal irresponsibility of governments and central banks in creating and using fiat currencies is catching up with them as reality rears its ugly head. The fiat currencies cannot be maintained forever any more than ANY fraudulent ponzi scheme.
The collapse of the fiat currencies will cause gold and silver to decouple from the commodities, and rise meteorically
.
When PMs rise to a certain point, and prices fall to a certain point, it will be wise to trade your PMs for land or other property.

Terribly optimisitc PJ, people will put up with the raiding of rhe Dollar's value simply because they do not know any better, and there are currencies in even worse condition and outside of segments of the Asian populace, storing value in precious metals is simply not a natural defense, however...the "dollar" is a natural and trusted hedge against Inflation of native currencies.

In Russia, during the 1998 collapse, the dollar was king, it was hidden in matresses and what have you.

Unless the dollar is thrown overboard, it will remain what it is, the last ghost image of value protection in a world gone mad.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 28, 2008, 12:08:53 am
Unless the dollar is thrown overboard, it will remain what it is, the last ghost image of value protection in a world gone mad.

Since the FED's creation in 1913, they have reduced the value of the dollar by 99% in a parabolic curve. The next few years will see a 99% reduction of the remaining penny. What the FED does tomorrow or the next day will not stop all of the extra paper they have created coming home to dilute the dollars honestly earned to nearly nothing.  However, their reaction will be identical to that of every fiat currency manipulator in the history of fiat currencies... they will print tremendous amounts of additional currency in their final days - ACCELERATING the value decline much like a full-throttle power-dive instead of a powerless crash.

The commoner's blind faith of which you speak has kept it up well beyond its real lifespan, but the purchasing power of the dollar in real goods is declining at an increasing rate and will continue to do so.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Sam on December 28, 2008, 03:27:16 am
Hi.  As a newcomer to this site, I am not spending the time, to review all the threads.  I am also not looking at every post, in the threads I open.

I posted the following, in one of byron m's threads, and assume many may not have seen them.  The authors appear to be highly credible.

I had started to panic, before I found this information.  The content validated the reasons for my panic.  The sky has fallen - we just don't know it, yet.

Quote
Analysis of think tank Leap 2020
03-20-2008
In summery, Leap 2020 seems to be rather on target in their predictions.
This group of surprising historical accuracy is predicting a systematic meltdown in Sept/Oct.  This is not a radical group in their thinking, others have arrived to the same conclusions.

https://www.kitcomm.com/archive/index.php?t-14517.html

Quote
Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US - Excerpt GEAB N°19 (Nov. 16, 2007) -
As a complement to our anticipations of the impact of the US economic recession for banks operating in the US, we find it useful to analyse here how much US official statistics have become totally surrealistic. For all those who cook and publish them, they are no longer meant to describe the reality but to preserve the credibility of a fiction concealing reality.
http://www.leap2020.eu/Factor-N-4-Economic-recession-in-the-US_a2539.html

Quote
Global systemic crisis Alert -
Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt
- Public announcement GEAB N°28 (October 16, 2008) -
As a matter of fact, September 2008 is the month when the « financial detonator » of the global systemic crisis exploded. According to LEAP/E2020 indeed, this second semester 2008 is the time when « the world dives into the heart of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis » (6); which means for our researchers that, at the end of this semester, the world enters the « decanting phase » of the crisis, i.e. a phase when the outcome of the shock settles down. This phase is the longest (from 3 to 10 years, according to the country) and the one affecting the largest number of people and countries. It is also the phase when the components of new global equilibriums will start to appear, two of them being already described by LEAP/E2020 in this 28th edition of the GEAB in the graphic illustrations below (7).
http://tinyurl.com/6juujd

Edit to remove duplication.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 28, 2008, 01:30:32 pm
Sam1953,

If no one has said so yet, "Welcome"!

About Leap2020 -- you need to take them with a grain of salt. I'm not saying they're wrong, but
the have a very strong Anti-American bias, and will interpret any fact or rumor to have the most
negative outcome for the US. That's just their attitude.

Now, as far us being in deep soup, yeah, I think we're all on the same page there.

Here's an interesting link I found over at SurivalBlog: http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=122769&t=01000420523245711617

It's titled, "They Called it Right (and predictions for 2009)". It's over at the Motley Fool, and
describes what these analysts called, right, when they did it, and what they see coming.

Bear


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Sam on December 28, 2008, 07:04:42 pm
Thanks, Bear.
That is good to know.
Title: US debt expands to 176% of GDP - up from 76% of GDP in 2007
Post by: dogsledder54 on December 28, 2008, 07:19:35 pm
http://www.silverminers.com/
U.S. debt approaches insolvency; Chinese currency reserves at risk
Maurizio d'Orlando
In a few months, America's public debt has grown to more than 100% of GDP. Fear of a valuation crisis for the dollar, with tremendous consequences for Asian countries, major exporters to the United States.

Milan (AsiaNews) - In the United States, the danger of debt insolvency is growing, putting at risk the currency reserves of foreign countries, China chief among them. According to new figures published by Bloomberg in recent days (Nov. 25, 2008 [1]), the American government has employed a total of 8.549 trillion dollars to stop the financial crisis. This means a total of about 24-25.4 trillion dollars of direct or indirect public debt weighing on American taxpayers. The complete tally must also include the debt - about 5-6 trillion dollars - of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are now quasi-public companies, because 79.9% of their capital is controlled by a public entity, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which manages them as a public conservatorship.

In 2007, public debt in the United States was 10.6 trillion dollars, compared to a GDP (gross domestic product) of 13.811 trillion dollars. Public debt in 2007 was therefore 76.75% of GDP. In just one year, direct and indirect public debt have grown to more than 100% of GDP, reaching 176.9% to 184.2%. These percentages exclude the debt guaranteed by policies underwritten by AIG, also nationalized, and liabilities for health spending (Medicaid and Medicare) and pensions (Social Security)[2]. By way of comparison, the Maastricht accords require member states of the European Union (EU) to reduce their public debt to no more than 60% of GDP. Again by way of comparison, in one of the EU countries with the largest public debt, Italy, public debt in 2007 was equal to 104% of GDP.

In 2007, 61.82% [3] of America's public debt was held by foreign investors, most of them Asian. So the U.S. public debt held by nonresident foreigners is equal to about 109.39% (113.86%) of GDP. According to a study by the International Monetary Fund, countries with more than 60% of their public debt held by nonresident foreigners run a high risk of currency crisis and insolvency, or debt default. On the historical level, there are no recent examples of countries with currencies valued at reserve status that have lapsed into public debt insolvency. There are also few or no precedents of such a vast and rapid expansion of public debt.

The United States also runs large deficits in its public balance sheet and balance of trade. Families and businesses are also deeply in debt: in 2007, American private debt was equal to a little more than 100% of GDP. At the moment, it is not clear how much of America's private debt has been "nationalized" with the recent bailouts.

In the early months of next year, when the official data are published, the United States will run a serious risk of insolvency. This would involve, in the first place, a valuation crisis for the dollar. After this, the United States could face a social crisis like that in Argentina in 2001. A crisis in U.S. public debt would likely have a severe impact on the Asian countries that are the main exporters to the United States, China first among them. Chinese monetary authorities, thanks to a steeply undervalued artificial exchange rate, by about 55%, have limited imports (including food) and have achieved an export surplus. This has allowed them to accumulate a large stockpile of dollar reserves. In a currency crisis, China risks losing much of the value of its accumulated currency reserves. At the same time, pressure on imports (wheat, other grains, and meat) have led to inflation in the prices of food, the most important expenditure for more than 900 million Chinese. This is nothing more than a small confirmation of the recent statements of the pope, in his message for the World Day for Peace, where the pontiff calls the current financial system and its methods "based upon very short-term thinking," without depth and breadth (nos. 10-12), preoccupied with creating wealth from nothing and leading the planet to its current disaster. [4]

[1] See Bloomberg, 2008, 11-25 16:35:48.130 GMT “U.S. Pledges Top $8.5 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit (Table)”

[2] In this case, exluding AIG policies, one arrives at a total equal to 429.37 of GDP.

[3] Cf. Economic crisis: US, China and the coming monetary storm

[4] Cf. AsiaNews.it 11/2/2008 Message for Peace 2009: the poor, wealth of the world; Global solidarity to fight poverty and build peace, says Pope
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on December 28, 2008, 08:06:51 pm
Interesting figures the link quotes there, Joker.

Too bad I can't disown the govt and its debt.

Or it'd be kinda fun to transfer the debt to the pols that voted 'aye' on the borrowing.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 28, 2008, 11:53:29 pm
Interesting figures the link quotes there, Joker.

Too bad I can't disown the govt and its debt.

Or it'd be kinda fun to transfer the debt to the pols that voted 'aye' on the borrowing.  :laugh:

Actually, "Debt Repudiation" is one very real possibility out of this whole mess.  The United States of America is bankrupt. 
So Idaho opts out. 
Montana opts out. 
Ya'll in DC can own the rights to the name, the useless currency, the debts an any other pieces you value.
We do not owe any portion of the $40,000 per-person debt your criminals ran up.
Didn't ask for it. Didn't gain from it. Don't owe it.
If the Chinese want flesh, take it up with those flabby (&$$*#  that sold you lies.

Several states and provinces may find it expedient to form a Confederation or two, but I sure hope they leave currency creation to the free market.  That's where I wanna live.
Title: That would be what's called a revolution.
Post by: Silver on December 29, 2008, 02:47:57 am
More and more people are thinking along those lines.

Legitimacy Dwindles (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kunstler/kunstler122908.html)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: padre29 on December 29, 2008, 08:58:59 pm
Unless the dollar is thrown overboard, it will remain what it is, the last ghost image of value protection in a world gone mad.

Since the FED's creation in 1913, they have reduced the value of the dollar by 99% in a parabolic curve. The next few years will see a 99% reduction of the remaining penny. What the FED does tomorrow or the next day will not stop all of the extra paper they have created coming home to dilute the dollars honestly earned to nearly nothing.  However, their reaction will be identical to that of every fiat currency manipulator in the history of fiat currencies... they will print tremendous amounts of additional currency in their final days - ACCELERATING the value decline much like a full-throttle power-dive instead of a powerless crash.

The commoner's blind faith of which you speak has kept it up well beyond its real lifespan, but the purchasing power of the dollar in real goods is declining at an increasing rate and will continue to do so.

And the sucker in every con is the last to know they have been conned slidemansailor, that has never changed.

And quite simply, the Dollar is the only currency that the world can use to conduct trade...at the moment...and IMO, that is what the Iraq War is all about, if you want to buy oil, it is priced in dollars, like some Mafia extortion racket.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: clarence on December 30, 2008, 08:56:02 am
Unless the dollar is thrown overboard, it will remain what it is, the last ghost image of value protection in a world gone mad.

Since the FED's creation in 1913, they have reduced the value of the dollar by 99% in a parabolic curve. The next few years will see a 99% reduction of the remaining penny. What the FED does tomorrow or the next day will not stop all of the extra paper they have created coming home to dilute the dollars honestly earned to nearly nothing.  However, their reaction will be identical to that of every fiat currency manipulator in the history of fiat currencies... they will print tremendous amounts of additional currency in their final days - ACCELERATING the value decline much like a full-throttle power-dive instead of a powerless crash.

The commoner's blind faith of which you speak has kept it up well beyond its real lifespan, but the purchasing power of the dollar in real goods is declining at an increasing rate and will continue to do so.

And the sucker in every con is the last to know they have been conned slidemansailor, that has never changed.

And quite simply, the Dollar is the only currency that the world can use to conduct trade...at the moment...and IMO, that is what the Iraq War is all about, if you want to buy oil, it is priced in dollars, like some Mafia extortion racket.


famiglia doesn't generally kill their customers as a routine business practice.

clarence
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on January 02, 2009, 02:02:58 pm

The fiancee mentioned this morning that the Canadian locations of "L.A. Weight Loss" have shut their doors leaving customers out their remaining membership fees.  She said that one of her customers, a member of the chain, had gone to the location to make a purchase on Tuesday and found the door locked and a note saying something like "We're sorry, but due to our inability to get the support from our corporate headquarters in the US, we have been forced to close."

In searching for a bit more on this, I found the home page for the US home company.. which seemed to be acting in a business as usual manner with no mention of the closings and had an active link to help you find your closest location.

I also found that the Australian length of the chain closed back in about May (based on the date stamps on the blog I found offering support).  The support included a manager from one of the Queensland locations who mentioned that workers were given 10 minutes warning of the closure.

The only news I have found on it is from a series of local news outlets reporting, usually with a paragraph or two, that the chain's Canadian locations in their reporting area were closing.

Another site states that it is only the LA Weight Loss Corporate stores that are closing, not the individually franchised Pure Weight Loss (two branches of the same tree, as one came from the other and are owned by two brothers).

So, the moral.  Make weight loss as a resolution?  Try the old fashioned way.  Improve your diet and get active.  Actually costs less than the "miracle bullets" some places offer.

My resolution?  Drink more.  Last drink I had was in 2004 on the flight home from Bosnia.
Title: Hookers paid in Gas cards / Drugs sold for Gift Cards
Post by: byron mc on January 02, 2009, 02:57:02 pm
Quote
July 2 (UPI) -- Police in a Cincinnati suburb say they busted an alleged prostitute who accepted a $100 gas card as payment for services rendered..
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/07/02/Gas_gift_card_used_to_pay_Ohio_hooker/UPI-11941215016769/

Quote
Police in Alabama arrested a 38-year-old man on suspicion of accepting gift cards as payment for crack cocaine and prescription drugs.
http://www.wmur.com/money/18387899/detail.html

Hey people just don't have the cash.
Title: Re: Hookers paid in Gas cards / Drugs sold for Gift Cards
Post by: Lenny on January 02, 2009, 03:52:42 pm
Quote
July 2 (UPI) -- Police in a Cincinnati suburb say they busted an alleged prostitute who accepted a $100 gas card as payment for services rendered..
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/07/02/Gas_gift_card_used_to_pay_Ohio_hooker/UPI-11941215016769/

Quote
Police in Alabama arrested a 38-year-old man on suspicion of accepting gift cards as payment for crack cocaine and prescription drugs.
http://www.wmur.com/money/18387899/detail.html

Hey people just don't have the cash.

That reminds me of this: after reading a Greg Parry piece (http://www.lewrockwell.com/perry/perry46.html), I bought some gift cards on Ebay. Got a $25 gift card for Chili's for $20, for example--which translates into a free $5, since I was going to eat there anyway.

It was interesting to me to browse gift card auctions (http://www.bidmentor.com/restgc) and notice what $1 was worth at various restaurants. For reasonably popular restaurants, $25 gift cards go for around $22.50, so $1 is worth about $0.90 at those places. Walmart gift cards sell for about 97% of face on average, with some selling above par (http://cgi.ebay.com/WALMART-SAMS-GIFT-SHOPPING-CARD-100_W0QQitemZ330297305286QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Gift_Certificates?hash=item330297305286&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=66%3A2|65%3A13|39%3A1|240%3A1318)! I've seen less popular restaurants selling at a fairly steep discount.

The gift cards aren't commodity money, because they're denominated in dollars and hence indirectly affected by price inflation. The "free adult dinner" cards ARE commodity money, since they're still worth a dinner if prices suddenly triple...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gridboy on January 03, 2009, 04:45:58 pm
Something weird is going on with food prices.  Over the last six weeks, the price of a pint of Ben & Jerry's
ice cream has gone from $3 to $3.50 to $4.  I thought lower demand was supposed to be driving
commodities down.  I would have thought that would have driven the price of ice cream down.
Is this an indicator of stagflation or hyperinflation coming?  Are you seeing food prices rising or declining?

gridboy
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 03, 2009, 09:04:58 pm
Quote
Are you seeing food prices rising or declining?
Rising. Beans at box store average $0.98 per pound, tomatos $1.99 per pound, etc. In conjunction with the "shrinking" of packages (i.e. Tuna to 5 oz vs 6 oz price increase to $0.83 per can vs $.63) we are seeing a big difference in spending. Well - we aren't - but many people are.  Sundried tomatoes from the garden are just as nice in a salad as fresh.

I was also told Dec. 31st that Tuna cans will be shrinking to 4.75 oz in the second quarter (by the stocker who wanted to know why I had pulled out 100 cans of Tuna. I explained I was looking for the 6 oz size. That and 60# of sugar in the cart got some strange looks  :rolleyes:)

mutti
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on January 03, 2009, 11:03:45 pm
Something weird is going on with food prices.  Over the last six weeks, the price of a pint of Ben & Jerry's
ice cream has gone from $3 to $3.50 to $4.  I thought lower demand was supposed to be driving
commodities down.  I would have thought that would have driven the price of ice cream down.
Is this an indicator of stagflation or hyperinflation coming?  Are you seeing food prices rising or declining?
gridboy

Dramatically rising unemployment, plummeting values of heretofore overinflated homes, lack of bankers willing to loan money and people beginning to understand the insecurity of our financial future put significant pressure on prices to go down - producers must cut prices to stimulate purchases.

This is the part those witch doctors of finance, the Keynesians, will tell you - and do blather about on TV.

The Austrians, on the other hand, will point out that runaway printing of dollar bills makes them worth less and less until in the not too distant future, they are worthless. As the dollar continues its downward trajectory, everything priced in paper dollars appears to cost more.  It is just like riding an escalator down where the floors seem to be rising. Soon it will be more like falling off a cliff.

Food prices are definitely rising.  Expect that to continue, but the rate of change to accelerate.  Buy Beans, Bullets and Bullion (stock up on food, ammunition and silver).
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on January 04, 2009, 06:17:12 am
If one defines inflation as an increase in the money supply, hyperinflation is already upon us.

In the last 3 months of 2008, the Fed nearly doubled (98% increase) the monetary base, aka M0.  It took the Fed 95 years of continuous inflation to get to August of 2008; 90 days later they had doubled the supply of money.

For now, right now, the money is being kept from spreading into the wider economy by the simple trick of paying banksters a small amount of interest on deposits at the Fed.  This is a new policy, devised to keep all the new money from causing an immediate increase in prices.

As for food prices, I expect them to go up faster rather than slower.  Inflation and deflation, when used to describe price movements, are not mutually exclusive.  House prices are going down, food prices are going up.  We have too many houses, demand is down.  But we all have to eat.  I may be too fat, but my purchases of food and booze during hard times tend to go up, not down.  I think many people act similarly.

Food is also closer to the raw materials than cars or computers.  It's less than 3 months from seed to table for most produce, less than 2 years for most meat.  That means that changes in the cost of feed, fuel, fertilizer, labor, and other factors of production show up in food prices pretty quickly.

Is this an idicator of hyperinflation?  Rapid rises in food prices alone don't prove anything.  As mentioned above, food prices tend to change rapidly even in normal times.  Looking beyond prices, a hyperinflation seems nearly certain. It's when that's hard to know.  There is mass psychology involved; typically some event triggers the general realization that the money is no good, and then the great rush begins.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on January 05, 2009, 04:17:03 am
I still hold a part-time job doing audio at a college. It keeps me in mad money and I still get to twist knobs. Yesterday I mentioned that I didn't see too many students. I was told by my boss that the college had lost 400 students already this year. ALL departments were told to cut budgets by 15%. Many of the students left due to costs. There's also been a marked decrease in the amount of events we handle. I've worked less than 20 hours this month and right now there's nothing scheduled until the first weekend in November.

If you're twisting knobs rather than sliding them, the equipment budget must have been cut some time ago.

What else is a knobjockey s'posed to twist?  :laugh: :laugh: :mellow:

All kidding aside, once you set your faders and trim your gain structures on all inputs all that's left is to hone the eq on any channel that may need help and that's done on the knobs. I drive a Midas 32ch. into a DBX Drive Rack -->EV Precision amps-->Dynacord speakers @130db FOH. The sidefills and monitors are in serious need of upgrade, need to replace about 15 mics and I'd like to complete the mic stand changeover, add a 1/2 dozen more wireless mics and matching Countryman over-ear mics. Plus I would like to upgrade the 4 portable systems for around campus. In the little theatre the system needs to be completely replaced. For now it sort of survives on leftovers and gaff tape. Heck I'm still using a Crown DC300 for the mains which are Community CS 12's flown from the antepro truss. We don't even have subs in there but they're not really necessary as we use the little theatre mostly for lectures, guest speakers, recitals and some smaller performances. We just had Tommy Sands in there last week. It's an intimate setting at about 250 seats so not a lot of reinforcement is needed.

Boy,  does _this_ stuff take me back...

AS,  I *knew* we had a bunch in common.  This is the sort of stuff I used to do.  Too bad I never got all that good at finding that sort of work since I left that job.  That last situation reminds me of one gig where we dragged a whole van load of stuff out and ended up using *one* input of a 16-channel board with a mouse (sound reinforcement context, not computer context :-) on the stage and a couple of JBL columns.  National Shakespeare Company,  I think that was,  somewhere in The Poconos...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on January 05, 2009, 08:11:16 am
I sold my sound company back around 2002. Over the years I had worked with a lot of other sound and light companies and so a lot of networking went on. After I sold the company I contented myself pursuing and wrapping up other projects I had going. Of course, boredom set in. Got a hold of the tech director out at the college and let him know I would be interested in picking up an occasional gig. I also talked to a guy I know who owns a tour company out of Chicago letting him know I was available for an occasional gig. It's worked out well for all of us. I get to do what I like most without all the concerns and demands on my time of the business side of things. No more sleeping in the truck in strange parking lots or uncomfortable hotel beds, rolling in at 4:30 a.m. after a 36 hour stint, real home-cooked meals made by my loving wife...most all the fun without most all the hassle. They get solid, proven expertise and dependability in a highly competitive market where your reputation is basically only as good as your last gig.

In music I've been fortunate to do everything from, literally, around the world. From classical orchestras to stuff you can't even classify. Soloists to choirs. Garage bands to mega stars. In theatre everything from little pre-schooler recitals to broadway tours. It's been fun and it's still fun. To top it all off I get paid to do it.

It's interesting, typically in times of economic downturns entertainment is sought as an escape, however momentary, from the world. Today with so much in-home entertainment, the internet, tv, assorted game boxes and so on, live entertainment will suffer as never before. There's already been a noted drop in attendance. On the flipside the costs of touring are so high that many acts simply cannot afford to get out on the road. Local performers better be darned good if they expect to work anywhere locally. Even then they will be paid little. this might end up being really good for the entertainment industry as a whole. Those who are mediocre in their craft will be forced to sharpen skills or seek employment in some other line of work while those who are skilled will find more work and better pay as they will have less competition from the low-priced, low-talent competition. Consumers of entertainment will end up the big winners with higher quality material and performers.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Roy J. Tellason on January 05, 2009, 09:39:49 am
I sold my sound company back around 2002. Over the years I had worked with a lot of other sound and light companies and so a lot of networking went on. After I sold the company I contented myself pursuing and wrapping up other projects I had going. Of course, boredom set in. Got a hold of the tech director out at the college and let him know I would be interested in picking up an occasional gig. I also talked to a guy I know who owns a tour company out of Chicago letting him know I was available for an occasional gig. It's worked out well for all of us. I get to do what I like most without all the concerns and demands on my time of the business side of things. No more sleeping in the truck in strange parking lots or uncomfortable hotel beds, rolling in at 4:30 a.m. after a 36 hour stint, real home-cooked meals made by my loving wife...most all the fun without most all the hassle. They get solid, proven expertise and dependability in a highly competitive market where your reputation is basically only as good as your last gig.

Yeah,  there are aspects to that stuff that I definitely don't miss.  Like the time I drove from Ottawa to Va. Beach,  during that odd-even gas nonsense,  arriving at the club at some absurd hour after their normal operations were over and done with to have the club owner tell me that he hated sound guys and finding out that we were gonna use the awful house system rather than our gear because he didn't wanna give up a table for it.  But Debbie Harry was in town and came and enjoyed the show.  :-)

Quote
In music I've been fortunate to do everything from, literally, around the world. From classical orchestras to stuff you can't even classify. Soloists to choirs. Garage bands to mega stars. In theatre everything from little pre-schooler recitals to broadway tours. It's been fun and it's still fun. To top it all off I get paid to do it.

Yeah it is.  Which is why when I bumped into a drummer I knew,  living here in town,  that I hadn't seen for oh,  10 or 15 years we got around to that subject at one point and I was agreeable to doing something,  sometime.  We haven't gotten there yet but we probably will eventually.

Quote
It's interesting, typically in times of economic downturns entertainment is sought as an escape, however momentary, from the world. Today with so much in-home entertainment, the internet, tv, assorted game boxes and so on, live entertainment will suffer as never before.

It's already nothing like it used to be.  for sure.

Quote
There's already been a noted drop in attendance. On the flipside the costs of touring are so high that many acts simply cannot afford to get out on the road. Local performers better be darned good if they expect to work anywhere locally. Even then they will be paid little. this might end up being really good for the entertainment industry as a whole. Those who are mediocre in their craft will be forced to sharpen skills or seek employment in some other line of work while those who are skilled will find more work and better pay as they will have less competition from the low-priced, low-talent competition. Consumers of entertainment will end up the big winners with higher quality material and performers.

Could be.  I don't think much of the folks that seem to be inclined to "produce" and "market" music these days,  an industry that seems to be in precipitous decline in much the same way as Hollyweird is,  and for many of the same reasons.  It's past time for a major shakeup there anyhow.  That could be said to some extent of the MSM as a whole,  I guess.  I don't pay 'em much attention mostly anyhow -- the folks on the tv keep harping on how little time there is left before everything goes digital,  and I'm mostly not worried about it,  there's always the VCR and the DVD player if I wanna watch something,  and the 'net for other sources of "stuff"...


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 05, 2009, 11:04:30 am
Fedco Co-op Seeds (http://www.fedcoseeds.com/) is reporting that wholesale costs for seeds have gone up as much as 50% in some cases, and that several of their wholesalers couldn't find growers for their seed crop last year because the run up in corn prices had farmers planting every available acre to cash in on corn. Because of that some cultivars are unavailable this year.

ND
Title: Boats
Post by: byron mc on January 05, 2009, 01:45:46 pm
Quote
Now, marina and harbor officials are reporting a sudden increase in the past year in the number of deserted pleasure boats and working vessels.

Unlike cars, wooden and fiberglass boats have virtually no scrap value. So rather than pay the high cost of hauling their boats to the dump, people ditch them or sell them for as little as $1 to anyone who will take them. The boats often break up and go under, or pass into the underground economy of nighttime scuttlers-- who, for a fee, remove traceable identification numbers, strip out salvageable items and sink the vessels.

January 04, 2009
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Business/Headlines/bizBIZ01010409.htm
Title: Re: Boats
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 05, 2009, 03:43:45 pm
Quote
Now, marina and harbor officials are reporting a sudden increase in the past year in the number of deserted pleasure boats and working vessels.

Unlike cars, wooden and fiberglass boats have virtually no scrap value. So rather than pay the high cost of hauling their boats to the dump, people ditch them or sell them for as little as $1 to anyone who will take them. The boats often break up and go under, or pass into the underground economy of nighttime scuttlers-- who, for a fee, remove traceable identification numbers, strip out salvageable items and sink the vessels.

January 04, 2009
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Business/Headlines/bizBIZ01010409.htm

If I were a goobermint bureaucrat, I'd propose a "abandoned boat disposal fee" on the title transfer of any boat/ship/barge based on a complex and arcane formula using the vessel's length, beam, displacement, and phase of the moon at the time of transfer.  :contract: :angel10:

ND
Title: Re: Boats
Post by: padre29 on January 05, 2009, 11:24:19 pm
Quote
Now, marina and harbor officials are reporting a sudden increase in the past year in the number of deserted pleasure boats and working vessels.

Unlike cars, wooden and fiberglass boats have virtually no scrap value. So rather than pay the high cost of hauling their boats to the dump, people ditch them or sell them for as little as $1 to anyone who will take them. The boats often break up and go under, or pass into the underground economy of nighttime scuttlers-- who, for a fee, remove traceable identification numbers, strip out salvageable items and sink the vessels.

January 04, 2009
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Business/Headlines/bizBIZ01010409.htm

If I were a goobermint bureaucrat, I'd propose a "abandoned boat disposal fee" on the title transfer of any boat/ship/barge based on a complex and arcane formula using the vessel's length, beam, displacement, and phase of the moon at the time of transfer.  :contract: :angel10:

ND

Hmm...pity that, I hope no fine floating homes are not scuttled for a couple of bucks.

In places in the NorthEast, a house boat at a marina costs far less then apartment rent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on January 08, 2009, 04:08:26 pm

The place I work gets commercial bread in for certain functions.  I noticed today that the slices are thinner on the brand they have "always" picked up.  I suppose the theory is that you get more sandwiches out of the same loaf of bread.  The loaf weighs the same as the other ones at the store, just thinner slices.

I've also recently realized that the production of 1 litre bottles of "soda" seems to have been cut.  Reason?  A 591ml bottle sells for $1.69 each (at most retailers) and the nearly twice as large 1 litre goes for $1.89/1.99 each (depends on store).  Thus, forcing the sheep to buy more of the smaller bottles has a greater profit margin than the larger bottles.

From the cancelled plans department, the local news is reporting that the financing for a planned extended care facility for the elderly has fallen through.  It's not getting built, no money.  Of course, the Provincial Government was funding it to the tune of an additional $12 million.  I can't find the news source on this one, besides the radio.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on January 09, 2009, 10:24:16 am
Russian TV has a great interview with Peter Schiff, who gets openly mocked and laughed at on CNN and Bloomberg.  Here he gets a respectful hearing, and lays out the grim facts.  It's worth the 10 minutes, he talks about everything from the coming collapse of the dollar to the use of silver coins in the resulting black market to the end of the empire.

Peter Schiff predicts Imminent Doom (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djgH9wA-JSU)

Peace,

Silver
Title: 700,000 jobs lost in December 2008
Post by: Silver on January 09, 2009, 10:26:22 am
US Job Loss in December was 700,000, not 500,000 as is being reported in the lapdog press.

http://www.shadowstats.com/index.php

Subscription required for the full article, but good free info available as well.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: 700,000 jobs lost in December 2008
Post by: RagnarDanneskjold on January 09, 2009, 11:32:23 am
The news at the beginning of this week in Ohio was that the Jobless Benefit System was brought to its knees. Both the phone and internet systems, which usually handle around 7,500 hits a day were getting over 80,000 per day.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Alton Speers on January 09, 2009, 12:16:43 pm
It OK according to the Obots. In fact, the Holy O has a plan that even the repubs could like: http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/09/tax-cut-idea-pits-payrolls-vs-social-security/
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on January 10, 2009, 09:40:22 am
A very telling graph for your inspection. Why are TPTB spending SOOOOO much to boost the economies around the world?

The answer: http://market-ticker.org/uploads/debt-contribution.jpg

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lightning on January 10, 2009, 07:23:59 pm
Shorty, thanks!  I've heard some of that info referred to lately, but hadn't seen the graph.

Why is it that the return on new dollars has been decreasing steadily for so long? 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on January 10, 2009, 09:35:01 pm
Shorty, thanks!  I've heard some of that info referred to lately, but hadn't seen the graph.

Why is it that the return on new dollars has been decreasing steadily for so long? 

I don't know, quite honestly. Maybe it's because the more times it is done, the less effective it becomes. Or like the boy who cried wolf too many times.

 Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on January 10, 2009, 10:16:23 pm
Shorty, thanks!  I've heard some of that info referred to lately, but hadn't seen the graph.

Why is it that the return on new dollars has been decreasing steadily for so long? 

I don't know, quite honestly. Maybe it's because the more times it is done, the less effective it becomes. Or like the boy who cried wolf too many times.

 Shorty Dawkins

Debt service consumes an increasing amount of GDP per unit output. There will soon come the case where we will see negative GDP growth due to the debt burden. We may be there now.

DS
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 12, 2009, 11:14:27 am
Cattle rustling in the suburbs.

Customers come through for Kane Co. cattle-rustling victim (http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=263662&src=5)

Quote
When Bob Burgin's bull calves were stolen last fall, the story came across as a kind of oddity. Cattle-rustling in Kane County? Why, the last time that happened was when Grandpap was knee-high to a grasshopper, back in ...

But it was no laughing matter to the Maple Park man, who raises eight to 10 head of cattle a year in a second job that helps him support his family.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on January 12, 2009, 12:25:40 pm
You know it's bad when people stop spending money on food.

The company i work for just reduced everyone's hours to 20 per week.  Why is that such a big deal you might ask.  Well, the company i work for is the maker of equipment that separates all food products before it hits your dining table.  We make gravity separators and destoners that separates grades into either food grade or feed grade.  We do other products as well but the company i work for is the best (in a very limited industry) in what we do.

Oh well,  we had our 2 largest years on record right before this crash so i guess there is always hope.  Plus, my wife and I are on the same page and are somewhat prepared.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on January 18, 2009, 10:49:42 pm
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v391/dogsledder54/taxbank.png
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Claire on January 19, 2009, 07:23:05 am
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v391/dogsledder54/taxbank.png

 :laugh: Very good, Private Joker!

Let's hope in the coming times, the taxpayers all have a chance to bail out and survive, as those foks did.

Claire
Title: More Joining American Military as Jobs Dwindle
Post by: byron mc on January 19, 2009, 08:44:49 am
Quote
As the number of jobs across the nation dwindles, more Americans are joining the military, lured by a steady paycheck, benefits and training.

The last fiscal year was a banner one for the military, with all active-duty and reserve forces meeting or exceeding their recruitment goals for the first time since 2004,

Another lure is the new G. I. Bill, which will significantly expand education benefits. Beginning this August, service members who spend at least three years on active duty can attend any public college at government expense or apply the payment toward tuition at a private university.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/us/19recruits.html?_r=1&ref=us

that is pretty much the easiest way to get a steady 'job' for many young people. And college tuition paid would leave them not in financial debt although they would be in debt to the US Gov. for future deployments... Though you can forget about any privacy as the US Armed forces take your blood, DNA, fingerprints, everything else...
Title: Greater Depression- 500,000 on welfare in L.A.
Post by: dogsledder54 on January 19, 2009, 01:03:02 pm
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget17-2009jan17,0,4472460.story

Although the state of Kali-fornia is so broke that they are suspending sending out tax refund checks, student grant checks, as well as the welfare payment checks to the 500,000 currently on welfare in Los Angeles,  never fear- Los Angeles COUNTY will make up the welfare checks for the time being.

Excerpt:
California controller to suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants
John Chiang announces that his office will suspend $3.7 billion in payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, because with no budget in place the state lacks sufficient cash to pay its bills.
By Evan Halper and Patrick McGreevy
January 17, 2009
Reporting from Sacramento -- The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, Controller John Chiang announced Friday.

Chiang said he had no choice but to stop making some $3.7 billion in payments in the absence of action by the governor and lawmakers to close the state's nearly $42-billion budget deficit. More than half of those payments are tax refunds.

Not all payments will stop Feb. 1. Most school and healthcare programs will be paid, as required by state and federal law. The state will continue to pay more than $6.6 billion in such bills.

And Los Angeles County officials said they would cover welfare payments to more than 500,000 local recipients -- for now.

Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger has ordered that most state workers take two days off per month without pay -- equivalent to about a 10% pay cut. The governor also ordered most state offices -- including all DMV field offices -- to close on those two days. The order is being challenged in court by labor unions.

The state has also halted payments of bond money for more than 5,300 public-works projects.
More at link
Title: March-May 2009
Post by: byron mc on January 23, 2009, 11:41:39 am
Quote
The Times Online Jan. 21, 2008: The illuminist institution, the London Schools of Economics  economist Robert Wade “Starting from March-May 2009, we can expect large-scale civil unrest, he said. “It will be caused by the rise of general awareness throughout Europe, America and Asia

Quote
riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria are a sign of things to come
Ukraine could be the next to go.


Quote
In particular, Eastern Europe is stated to expect severe riots from the middle class.
http://euro-med.dk/?p=6118
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5559773.ece
Title: Re: March-May 2009
Post by: Hollywoodgold on January 23, 2009, 05:38:03 pm
Quote
The Times Online Jan. 21, 2008: The illuminist institution, the London Schools of Economics  economist Robert Wade “Starting from March-May 2009, we can expect large-scale civil unrest, he said. “It will be caused by the rise of general awareness throughout Europe, America and Asia

Quote
riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria are a sign of things to come
Ukraine could be the next to go.


Quote
In particular, Eastern Europe is stated to expect severe riots from the middle class.
http://euro-med.dk/?p=6118
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5559773.ece


This is a somewhat different perspective. The article discusses a sort of "nexus" between southern European anarchists, Islamisists/Jihadists and the recently unemployed/taxed. A potentially troubling and volitle socio-political montage for Europe.

http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=2725
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: spatter on January 23, 2009, 05:49:06 pm
Gold appears to have disconnected from both the Dow and other commodities since the inauguration.  Hit $900/oz today.

Anybody read anything into that?

Spatter
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bill St. Clair on January 23, 2009, 07:08:20 pm
A 5% change in one day is pretty much normal. Unless it continues over a few days, I wouldn't read much into it.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: spatter on January 23, 2009, 07:43:47 pm
Quote
A 5% change in one day is pretty much normal. Unless it continues over a few days, I wouldn't read much into it

It has continued over a few days (at least since inauguration day, possibly earlier).  That's why I brought it up.

Spatter
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on January 23, 2009, 08:53:55 pm
Quote
A 5% change in one day is pretty much normal. Unless it continues over a few days, I wouldn't read much into it

It has continued over a few days (at least since inauguration day, possibly earlier).  That's why I brought it up.

Spatter

Silver and Gold are merely back to where they were in September. They are far below where they should be when measured in fiat dollars or the rest of the world's fiat currencies.  As the Keynesians play out their final acts by throwing dollars out of helicopters in a futile effort to stimulate the economy to health, the 3 precious metals are going to look good indeed.  Grab what gold, silver and lead (particularly jacketed lead) you can now.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: spatter on January 23, 2009, 09:47:14 pm
It's not the level I'm referring to.  It's the fact that they've disconnected from the Dow and other commodities.  That, to me, is the pertinent issue.

Spatter
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 29, 2009, 10:56:04 am
Trade Association confirms the SMS Index.

Airlines decline as carriers report quarterly losses
'Unprecedented and shocking' drop in global cargo traffic (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/continental-us-airways-help-drag/story.aspx?guid=%7B9A5A2940-7874-449B-B945-B630C297ADDE%7D)

Quote
More telling, cargo shipments sustained a plunge of nearly 23% for the final month of the year, the trade group said.

The "freefall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. ... There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade," said Giovanni Bisignani, the IATA's director general and chief executive.
Air cargo carries 35% of the value of goods traded internationally, according to IATA.

ND
Title: A joke that isn't
Post by: Claire on February 01, 2009, 01:23:56 pm
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2009/02/62218794/1

This article is a "lite" piece about Obama's and a few other Washington insider's jokes at the annual Alfalfa Club dinner (including a grossly tasteless one by Joe Lieberman). But the very last paragraph in the article contains one of those too-true-to-be funny and so-true-you-wonder-how-any-insider-dared-utter-it cracks that just brought me up short:

Quote
The incoming club president, Sen. Christopher S. Bond, R-Mo. reminded guests that a newspaper recently published a list of the 25 people most responsible for the global economic meltdown. "You know who you are," he said, according to the source. "And it's good to see you here tonight."

Ain't that the bloody damned truth?

(Wasn't sure where this post belonged; didn't merit a thread of its own, but didn't really fit in any existing ones. Hope this is okay here.)

Claire
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on February 03, 2009, 02:39:59 pm
Heck even the prostitutes are having a tough go around during these troubling times.

http://current.com/items/89604616/prostitution_suffering_from_economic_crisis.htm
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: penguinsscareme on February 03, 2009, 03:12:48 pm
They need a bailout, too?
Title: more counterfeiting in USA
Post by: byron mc on February 11, 2009, 01:27:03 pm
Does NYC Have a Counterfeit $100 Bill Problem
(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3401/3258194016_9525f9c3a2.jpg)
February 6th, 2009
http://midtownlunch.com/blog/2009/02/06/does-midtown-have-a-counterfeit-100-bill-problem/


Quote
the counterfeit money, in denominations ranging from $5 bills to $100 bills, have been appearing in the parish, especially in the Eunice area, over the past several weeks.

"Unfortunately this was not discovered until several thousands of dollars were rejected when deposited in the bank," Darbonne said.
February 11, 2009
http://www.dailyworld.com/article/20090211/NEWS01/902110307/1002

It's kind of funny on the flip side you see this on "TMZ.com"
(http://www.blogcdn.com/www.tmz.com/media/2009/02/0205_diddy_wi.jpg)
Puff Daddy finds a $1. bill amongst wad of $100. bills while out in public.


also see:
demonetizing the $100 bill as terrorist fighting tool
https://thementalmilitia.com/forums/index.php?topic=19543.0
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 25, 2009, 11:54:04 am
NYSE considers relaxing its one-dollar rule (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NYSE-considers-relaxing-its-apf-14455911.html)

Quote
With many major companies trading in penny-stock territory, the New York Stock Exchange is considering relaxing a rule that requires shares to trade above a dollar.

"That's something that we're considering, given the market environment," said NYSE Euronext spokesman Raymond Pellechia.

Currently, an NYSE-listed company's shares cannot remain below $1 over 30 consecutive days. If that happens, the company gets about six months to prove to the NYSE it can boost its stock price.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on February 25, 2009, 12:45:47 pm
Byron, that is funny.  He has that look like what the &%^$ is this?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on February 27, 2009, 07:15:23 pm

In the news today (on the radio anyways).

Walmart is closing the Sam's Club locations in Canada due to "lower than expected sales".

They are reportedly going to build more supercenters instead.  Eventually.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Canadian Mamma on February 27, 2009, 08:32:06 pm
Yeah I heard that to, there are only five stores in all of Canada and those are all in Ontario, one of the new economically depressed provinces.  One was in Windsor, a mini Detroit for jobs which means they got none. Three are in Toronto, land of the gangs, land of the mass immigrant settlings, welfare and of course those pretentious yuppies who only eat organic, free range veggies and one ii think I heard in Cambridge.  I didn't even know Ontario had a Cambridge.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 03, 2009, 10:39:35 am
Jim Rogers buy the farm.

Jim Rogers Buys Land, Starts Farming (http://www.cnbc.com/id/29477080)

Quote
"If I'm right, agriculture is going to be one of the greatest industries in the next 20 years, 30 years."

Food inventories are at their lowest in 50 years, Rogers said, while the oil and mining sectors are also good bets.

"Even if demand goes flat or down, as it did in the 30s, as it did in the 70s, you can still have a nice market," he told CNBC.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Canadian Mamma on March 03, 2009, 03:43:00 pm
Funny I just saw an interview with him from Australian TV.

He mentioned that he was going to buy up commodity only sold off all his pounds sterling, which PO'd the Brits and thinking he is going to cash in all His US dollars and but HARD ASSETS only, like land and keep the rest in commodities.  Interesting guy.

I will try to scrounge up the link later.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 03, 2009, 05:05:49 pm
Bill Bonner doesn't generally prescribe fixes, but he did today. 

Quote
Neither Mr. Obama nor none of the candidates for Mayor of Detroit (the last mayor is doing time in a federal penitentiary) has asked for our advice. We will give it anyway. Want to save Detroit? Here’s how:

Abolish all welfare of all sorts…no unemployment insurance…no child tax credits…no welfare…no foodstamps…no nothing, except privately-sponsored charities. Close the public schools. Kick out all the bureaucrats and all federal and state employees. Abolish all rules concerning employment – no minimum wages, no overtime, discriminate all you want. Require all residents to say please and thank you…dress properly…and sneer at people who don’t seem to be gainfully employed or polite. Declare the city an Open City and Free Trade Zone. In exchange for cutting all federal aid programs, eliminate federal and state taxes for people living in the city. Allow unlimited immigration into the city…giving all immigrants a U.S. passport after 5 years of residency. Levy a flat 10% tax to pay for basic services. Eliminate elections…have the city controlled by a town council composed of 10 citizens chosen at random.

Within five years, Detroit would be the most dynamic city in the nation.
[/size]

I was with him right up to the 10% tax...  I want the chance to build/operate/maintain some roads, sell some power, collect some garbage, etc.  There is a whole lot of honest profit to be made providing "essential" services.

Still, he is pretty much right on.  Once enough people realize that getting the gov out of our damned way is the only way out of this mess, we have a fighting chance.  Until then, it is hopeless.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: coloradohermit on March 03, 2009, 06:58:49 pm
Really good to see you Silver! Where the heck you been? You being one of our voices in the dark, I hope you're going to be around more.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: penguinsscareme on March 04, 2009, 08:50:47 am
What coloradohermit said.

Quote
Within five years, Detroit would be the most dynamic city in the nation.

And I would add that, if D-town were to do all those things, I could almost forgive a 10% flat tax...if it came with a five year sunset.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 04, 2009, 01:59:03 pm
Thanks for the kind words, PSM and Coloradohermit.  I've been busy; making new friends and renewing old friendships, buying and selling, working and playing.  The time is growing short for talking and planning, getting ripe for moving and doing.  I find I've talked too much and moved too little.  I'll be around here as I can, but it will probably be on and off for the foreseeable future.

As for the 10% tax, I agree.  If my taxes were 10%, I frankly doubt I could get worked up enough to do anything about it.  Better to pay the thieves and get on with my life.  Instead my taxes are already 67% to 75%, our newest emperor has decreed that I'm too wealthy, and as far as I can tell I will be paying all of the new taxes, every single one. 

It's getting time to shrug; it's bothered me for a long time knowing who I really work for and what they do with the money I make in honest trade.  Once these new rules go into play, there really isn't much point to working for a living when the tax rates exceed 90%.  When that day comes, I won't be here, or anywhere else where its easy to find me.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 05, 2009, 01:16:00 pm
Long line of train cars finds home in Union, Mo. (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/799AC85B75FECCEC86257570000BDB28?OpenDocument)

Quote
The Union Pacific Railroad, which owns the line through town, has been using it to store cars. What the Persefields consider unpleasant scenery is, to Union Pacific, a convenient dead-end track for indefinite storage.

Nationally, railroads have been mothballing cars and locomotives as their business throttles down with the lurching economy. Union Pacific, a railroad with a major presence in St. Louis, has stored away about 48,000 of the 421,000 cars used on its line, and 1,200 of its 7,200 locomotives. The cars are scattered on sidings and yards along 32,000 miles of track in 23 states.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: coloradohermit on March 05, 2009, 05:19:59 pm
(http://images.zaazu.com/img/beggar-beggar-hobo-homeless-smiley-emoticon-000589-large.gif)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: spatter on March 05, 2009, 10:24:13 pm
Quote
Long line of train cars finds home in Union, Mo.

This isn't particularly unusual.  A railroad near here is storing a BUNCH of cars and getting paid handsomely for it.

The people in the area around the cars hate it, but they don't really have any power over the railroad.

Bottom line...it probably isn't really related to the economy and it only makes the news when the neighbors complain.

Spatter
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 09, 2009, 11:34:07 pm
According to Evans-Pritchard, the Dow will lose one-third more at least. Notice the drop in trade between nations. Japan looks like toast.

Shorty Dawkins


Evans-Pritchard: Dow 4,000 by Summer

Friday, March 6, 2009 12:05 PM

By: Gene J. Koprowski     
 
Global trade and economic output are collapsing at rates that outpace the Depression of the 1930s, and "shock and awe" policies are required from the U.S. government to revive global growth, says Daily Telegraph International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

"This terrifying fall has been concentrated in the last five months. The job slaughter has barely begun," Evans-Pritchard writes. "Social mayhem comes with a 12-month lag."

According to a survey by Merrill Lynch, Taiwan's exports to China fell 55 percent in January, Japan's fell 45 percent. Manufacturing output in the Shanghai region fell 12 percent in January.

"By comparison, industrial output in core-Europe fell 2.8 percent in 1930, 5.1 percent in 1931 and 3.9 percent in 1932," wrote Evans-Pritchard.
 



http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/evans_pritchard_dow/2009/03/06/189228.html
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 10, 2009, 12:03:10 am
Regulatory reports show 5 biggest banks face huge losses

By Greg Gordon and Kevin G. Hall | McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON - — America's five largest banks, which already have received $145 billion in taxpayer bailout dollars, still face potentially catastrophic losses from exotic investments if economic conditions substantially worsen, their latest financial reports show.

Citibank, Bank of America, HSBC Bank USA, Wells Fargo Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase reported that their "current" net loss risks from derivatives — insurance-like bets tied to a loan or other underlying asset — surged to $587 billion as of Dec. 31. Buried in end-of-the-year regulatory reports that McClatchy has reviewed, the figures reflect a jump of 49 percent in just 90 days.


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/63606.html

Thus the drive for nationalization of banks will be spurred. They won't let the banks fail, as they should. No, they'll saddle the rest of us with their mistakes/blunders.
Once nationalization is complete, watch for the new currency, the Amero, which will make things all better. Sigh.

Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ShortyDawkins on March 16, 2009, 03:15:12 pm
IMF poised to print billions of dollars in 'global quantitative easing'

The International Monetary Fund is poised to embark on what analysts have described as "global quantitative easing" by printing billions of dollars worth of a global "super-currency" in an unprecedented new effort to address the economic crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4986287/IMF-poised-to-print-billions-of-dollars-in-global-quantitative-easing.html

It looks like this is the first shot in the World Currency War. Who gave them authority for this? I sure as hell didn't.
 
Shorty Dawkins
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on March 16, 2009, 08:45:39 pm
I'll bet they don't print anything other than entries in some electronic ledger............
(added in) because that's what "they" want.............money that you can't carry away with you, and can't spend or save as you wish
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 17, 2009, 01:08:20 pm
Shorty, I had a feeling they were lying to us.  One of the head guys was just saying that they've posted a profit for the first 2 months of the year.  Why to they bother to lie?  Another thing is why the heck does our gov't say anything about another bailout?  They are going to do it anyway no matter if we absolutely hate it and the markets crash.  They should just secretly bail them out so they won't have to be embarrased when the bailed out bank decides to give out millions of dollars in bonuses and pisses off the taxpayers. 

What is one more lie to a politician anyway?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: unimog404 on March 17, 2009, 09:09:05 pm
Quote
What is one more lie to a politician anyway?

Because their not actually that smart.  That would require forward thinking, some might say critical thinking.  These people are just people.  It's hard enough to try to cover up a lie in a regular family, so much so that the smart ones end up learning that it's easier not to lie, imagine an entire nation thinking your part of the family.  It's so much easier to rely on the short memory that people will have about anything that is negative about anything, or positive for that matter.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 18, 2009, 10:46:17 am
The International Monetary Fund is poised to embark on what analysts have described as "global quantitative easing" by printing billions of dollars worth of a global "super-currency" in an unprecedented new effort to address the economic crisis.

Only billions?  Wake me up when they start talking real money. :mellow:

But seriously.

The global super-currency is the SDR, "Special Drawing Rights".  Here's another article of interest:

At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/375364.htm)
Quote
...The International Monetary Fund should investigate the possible creation of a new reserve currency, widening the list of reserve currencies or using its already existing Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, as a "superreserve currency accepted by the whole of the international community," the Kremlin said in a statement issued on its web site.

The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. ...

Hmm.  I haven't been impressed by warnings about the Amero or other purported international currencies, but maybe some of the same trickery could be accomplished using the already-existing SDR.  I'll have to read up on this.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 18, 2009, 10:55:19 am
Mr. Bill do you really think the U.S. will allow anyone, especially the real socialist from inventing a new world currency?  The U.S. will go to war and drop nukes to keep that from happening...because if it does happen it will be the equivalent of them dropping a nuke on us but without the fallout or the bodies.  It seems our Russian friends are learning some leasons from Osama Bin Laden and that is to destroy your enemy you only need to destroy their currency.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 18, 2009, 12:59:02 pm
Mr. Bill do you really think the U.S. will allow anyone, especially the real socialist from inventing a new world currency? ...

No, but that's why the SDR might fill the role.  The US has a very large say in the operation of the IMF (only 16.77% of the voting rights, but it looks like major SDR-related actions by the IMF require approval by 60% of the members and 85% of the total voting rights, so that gives the US veto power).

I don't really know if the "SDR = world currency" idea is plausible.  I'm still reading about it.

Some info from the IMF's website:

Factsheet - Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm)

SDR Valuation (http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_sdrv.aspx)

From 1/1/06-12/31/10, the SDR is defined as US$0.632 + €0.41 + ¥18.4 + £0.0903, or about $1.48 at today's exchange rates.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on March 19, 2009, 10:30:35 am
Scenes from the recession (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html)

Quote
The state of our global economy: foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, layoffs, abandoned projects, and the people and industries caught in the middle. It can be difficult to capture financial pressures in photographs, but here a few recent glimpses into some of the places and lives affected by what some are calling the "Great Recession". (35 photos total)

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mr. Bill on March 19, 2009, 11:50:34 am
I don't really know if the "SDR = world currency" idea is plausible.  I'm still reading about it.

More from yesterday's news:

U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USTRE52H2CY20090318)
Quote
A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar. ...

Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.

The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent's economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket. ...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 19, 2009, 12:55:55 pm
Scenes from the recession (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html)

Quote
The state of our global economy: foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, layoffs, abandoned projects, and the people and industries caught in the middle. It can be difficult to capture financial pressures in photographs, but here a few recent glimpses into some of the places and lives affected by what some are calling the "Great Recession". (35 photos total)

ND

Those are very powerful pictures.  If you take the time to really look at them you may feel tears forming in your eye. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Canadian Mamma on March 19, 2009, 08:36:03 pm
Scenes from the recession (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html)

Quote
The state of our global economy: foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, layoffs, abandoned projects, and the people and industries caught in the middle. It can be difficult to capture financial pressures in photographs, but here a few recent glimpses into some of the places and lives affected by what some are calling the "Great Recession". (35 photos total)

ND

Those are very powerful pictures.  If you take the time to really look at them you may feel tears forming in your eye. 

That was amazing, you hear about it, but to see it like that....
Title: Boats Too Costly to Keep abandoned around coastal areas
Post by: byron mc on April 01, 2009, 12:35:23 pm
Quote
officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.

...an insurance investigator in San Diego, said the number of suspicious cases he was handling had roughly tripled in the last year, to around 70.


Quote
In January, it became illegal in South Carolina to abandon a boat on a public waterway. Violators can be fined $5,000 and jailed for 30 days.

Boats Too Costly to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?_r=1&ref=us
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on April 10, 2009, 06:11:25 pm
... and shipping being mothballed.

Essar Shipping defers bulk carrier buy on poor mkt (http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM1329420081031)

Quote
The Baltic Dry Index .BADI, a gauge of shipping costs for commodities, has fallen more than 90 percent to below 900 points from its peak of 11,793 hit in May.

Globally, some shippers have declared backruptcy, while others are looking at mothballing ships and cutting jobs if a slowdown in global trade gets worse.

You don't go to the trouble of putting ships into mothballs unless you know it will be YEARS before you need them again.

ND

Update on shipping. Expecting a "bloodbath". New ships are coming straight out of the yards and going into lay-up. (Sorry, it's audio only however it seems to work on Linux Firefox)

Can the shipping market stay afloat? (5:15) (http://www.theworld.org/taxonomy_by_date/1/20090410)

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on April 16, 2009, 05:14:22 pm

The continuing decline in the newspaper industry claims another victim:

"AbitibiBowater bankruptcy filing keeps Liverpool on edge"

From CBC:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nova-scotia/story/2009/04/16/ns-abitibibowater-liverpool.html
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on April 17, 2009, 12:24:48 pm
http://dilbert.com/strips/
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on April 17, 2009, 01:38:07 pm
Our UPS delivery man is quite chatty.  When he stopped by the office today, he was complaining that he had no more packages to deliver today.

It was 11:30 AM.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on April 17, 2009, 01:48:10 pm
It looks like the TEA Parties on Tax Day generated a lot of support.
CNN is saying it's all a conservative plot.

It looks like Gerald Celente's predictions of tax revolt may come to pass

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: dogsledder54 on April 17, 2009, 06:14:17 pm
Our UPS delivery man is quite chatty.  When he stopped by the office today, he was complaining that he had no more packages to deliver today.
It was 11:30 AM.
Peace,
Silver

He could bring me the copy of Patriots  that I am waiting for.
  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on April 22, 2009, 09:50:48 am
Photo montage of West Robinwood Street in Highland Park, Michigan (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=West+Robinwood+and+Woodward,+Detroit,+MI&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=38.365962,67.851563&ie=UTF8&ll=42.42977,-83.110537&spn=0.001128,0.002588&t=k&z=19&lci=com.panoramio.all), outside Detroit.  60 of 66 home vacant.

Warning: these are big images.  The stitching of the images is poor, but the view speaks for itself.

One side of street  (http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3310/3408925371_daedab3e47_o.jpg)
Other side of street (http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3627/3418372060_706f2ff35d_o.jpg)

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on April 23, 2009, 04:36:58 am
He could bring me the copy of Patriots  that I am waiting for.[/b]  :laugh:

Afterwards he can swing by my place for my copy as well.  It's been two weeks now!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bill St. Clair on April 23, 2009, 05:34:34 am
He could bring me the copy of Patriots  that I am waiting for.[/b]  :laugh:

Afterwards he can swing by my place for my copy as well.  It's been two weeks now!

Amazon just sent me email saying that they don't expect my copy to arrive until May 26 - June 8. Bummer.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Who...me? on April 23, 2009, 01:33:02 pm
He could bring me the copy of Patriots  that I am waiting for.[/b]  :laugh:

Afterwards he can swing by my place for my copy as well.  It's been two weeks now!

Amazon just sent me email saying that they don't expect my copy to arrive until May 26 - June 8. Bummer.


Just a week or so before JWR announced a new publisher I ordered a copy from the old publisher. After waiting the required time period, I called the publisher to find out the status of my order and was told it was sent and should be ther in a day or so...YAAAY. So just for giggles I got on the USPS web site and entered my tracking number and found the package had reached the Philly warehouse. I figured I would receive it the following Monday. When Wendsday rolled around and I hadn't gotten it yet I checked again. Seems the package was damaged and sent to the Atlanta recovery warehouse. After several phone calls to the publisher and the USPS this is what I found out. The publisher, who even though the book was simply thrown in a manila envelope and mailed, said the were not responsible because the USPS had received the book. The USPS says that its not their fault because the book was shoddily packaged. My recourse was to send a letter to atlanta describing the package and they would see if they could identify the book and if so it would be forwarded to me. Of course there is not mechanism for me to find out if they have the book or even my letter asking about it. Another wonderful USPS policy is that after 90 days any unclaimed mail is sold at auction as undeliverable.

So basically what happened is i paid for the book with shipping so someone from the Atlanta warehouse could stach the book then buy it at auction...If they didn't just take it home.

Sigh...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on May 15, 2009, 09:55:46 am
Philippines find anchorage fees to be a "cash cow" in the collapsing world economy.

Philippines cashes in on global shipping slump (http://news.id.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=3314871)

Quote
Deep water ports around the Philippines are fast resembling parking lots as shipping companies caught by the slump in global trade look for places to park their unused vessels.

At the former US naval base at Subic Bay, north of Manila, and in waters around the southern city of Davao, dozens of foreign ships are now "laid up" waiting for world markets to pick up.

The global trade collapse has hurt Asia's export powerhouses and left more than 1,000 vessels unemployed around the world, according to Norway-based shipping risk management foundation, Det Norske Veritas.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on July 13, 2009, 08:52:35 am
Q2 Railroad traffic plummets.

Slow Train  (http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124726740405725671.html?mod=googlenews_barrons)

Quote
Total traffic at the major U.S. Class 1 railroads, as reported by the Association of American Railroads, [fell] 21% in the second quarter through the week ended June 27, an acceleration of the 16% decline in 1Q09....The second-quarter-traffic trends were marked by double-digit declines in nine out of 13 weeks.

We had expected to see some positive progression in traffic trends in the second quarter, versus the first-quarter run rate, but that positive momentum never materialized.

Have to confirm this one. Went past the Missouri Pacific switchyards on the west end of the Douglas McArthur bridge and of the six lines, there was only one with cars on it (about 1/4 of a line) and the rest were completely vacant. Struck me as very unusual. It was the first time I noticed it.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on July 16, 2009, 02:48:06 pm
I recently drove by the tracks in Nampa, ID. From 1 section-line overpass to the next (1 mile) were two tracks with freight train engines bumper to bumper for that entire segment.  I don't know how many unused engines can be fit into two miles of track, but it is a very impressive look at excess capacity.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Hollywoodgold on July 18, 2009, 03:19:04 pm
Japanese Ship Orders Drop Nearly 80 Percent


Hisane Masaki | Jul 17, 2009 3:24PM GMT
The Journal of Commerce Online - News Story

Japanese export ship orders during the first half of this year sank to the lowest level for a January-June period in 16 years, indicating a recovery in shipowners’ flagging demand for new vessels is not yet on the horizon.

http://www.joc.com/node/412405

This is a sign of a long term slow down.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on July 24, 2009, 09:52:05 am
Yesterday the stock markets rallied to over 9,000, supposedly because corporate earngings reports were better than anticipated.

Here's the earning of the S&P 500, courtesy of Chart of the Day (http://www.chartoftheday.com):

(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090724.gif)

That's a log scale on the vertical axis; earnings have dropped a factor of 50 or more from their peak.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on July 24, 2009, 04:48:46 pm
He-he-he.  :laugh: Price to Earnings ratio sure dumped.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on July 29, 2009, 03:01:24 pm
This is how you KNOW things are bad.

I went to visit my buddy in the city this last weekend.  So we head to my favorite place to eat....strictly because of the quality of food.  The place is Hooters.  What i notice is that we get right in and that is odd since i'm used to waiting everytime we go to this particular place.  Once inside I notice that there aren't as many girls...excuse me waitresses on the floor.  We ask one of the fine ladies what gives and she says business and tips are way down and alot of the girls either left or were let go.  So my buddy and I do our part to help stimulate the economy and take lots of pictures with us with the girls.  We are very nice tippers.  I'd show the pics off but then i'd ruin my opsec.  Of course I told my wife to start looking for a near immediate turn around in the market and buy lots of stock in Hooters.

My point is:  When chicks with Hooters are getting cut back in hours you know it's getting bad cause the last thing a guy will give up his great cuisine.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on July 31, 2009, 10:17:36 am
Bloomberg says:

Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivTjr852TI)

Quote
The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

Like this is a surprise  :rolleyes:.  Wonder if that means the public needs to be bent over stimulated again? 

Just look for the little packet of KY that arrives in your mailbox.... mutti

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: SoundTheBell on August 02, 2009, 11:49:59 pm
Bloomberg says:

Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivTjr852TI)
But but but... Obama and all of his media hounds are saying the recession is ending! :rolleyes:

Actually they're probably telling the truth. The "recession" is ending... because we've entered "depression" territory. :p
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on August 05, 2009, 07:09:26 am
Farm Values Drop in U.S. First Time Since '87; Revival Forecast  (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=av0ZWuhJy4rs)

Quote
Farmland prices, which advanced for 21 years, couldn’t escape the worst plunge in real estate since the Great Depression.

Quote
“Livestock and crop commodity prices have declined from a year earlier, thus producers and investors are less optimistic than a year ago,” the USDA said in yesterday’s report. “A decrease in the demand for recreational land has also contributed to the overall decrease in land values.”

Northeast states were the most expensive of the 10 regions in the lower 48 states tracked by the USDA, with an average price of $4,830 an acre. The least-expensive area was the Mountain states, at $922 an acre. Even after the declines, the value of U.S. farmland, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, was the second-highest on record, above the $2,010 in 2007.

ND
Title: library in top 6 US city
Post by: byron mc on September 14, 2009, 09:13:18 am
Quote
The Philadelphia Free Library system is broke, and they're shutting it down, including cancelling "all branch and regional library programs, programs for children and teens, after school programs, computer classes, and programs for adults" and "all children programs, programs to support small businesses and job seekers, computer classes and after school programs" and "all library visits to schools, day care centers, senior centers and other community centers" and "all community meetings" and "all GED, ABE and ESL program."
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/09/13/philadelphia-free-li.html

http://libwww.freelibrary.org/closing/

2000 census population (rank): 1,517,550
Ranked #6 for size in the USA.
An entire city's library is closing.  Not a few branches. Not reduced hours, not half of the branches. All.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on September 14, 2009, 09:47:11 am
Closing libraries is classic political posturing and taxpayer punishment, eliminating the most popular and generally modest cost programs while keeping all the thugs and higher-paid parasites in the manner to which they have become accustomed.  I doubt very much that the tax-eater in charge of the libraries will lose her over-paid, under-worked sinecure.  Her announcement makes it clear that she is doing this as a means to exert pressure on the legislature for more taxpayer looting.

This is just the latest installation of a story that has been playing out for years.  Philly residents have been calling :bs: for some time. See for example Siobhan Reardon and Michael Nutter: Bullshit Artists and Bullies (http://brendancalling.com/2009/01/06/siobhan-reardon-and-michael-nutter-bullshit-artists-and-bullies/)

Still, it's a start.  I hope all of the government libraries stay closed.  That will open the market for some more excellent (http://www.bostonathenaeum.org/node/41) independent libraries (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Athen%C3%A6um). 

Peace,

Silver

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on September 14, 2009, 11:31:03 pm
Libraries are one good example of a government enterprise that should be sold at auction. The government gets much needed revenue that it COULD apply to more appropriate services, some book-loving group or individual who could run a book rental/sale venture in a self-sustaining manner takes over and does a fine job of it.

Building inspection is another that should be sold to highest bidder. Those who want the equivalent of a "UL" or "Good Housekeeping Seal" on their construction get it, the rest build to a higher standard - their own honor and integrity.

In many cases, the employees might pool their resources to be the highest bidder, then make a go as an employee-owned business ... as opposed to being out of work.  In other cases, the whole sheeebang goes as a bargain in vehicles and office furniture from a completely useless agency.  Oh Well!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lenny on September 15, 2009, 10:04:10 am
Closing libraries is classic political posturing and taxpayer punishment, eliminating the most popular and generally modest cost programs while keeping all the thugs and higher-paid parasites in the manner to which they have become accustomed.

Yup. About like telling my wife, "If you don't stop eating out and start cooking more at home, I'm going to have to shut off the furnace for the winter," while still treating myself to whiskey and hookers.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 18, 2009, 07:36:21 am
Now that the entire MSM has decided we are "around the corner" and recovering like mad ( :huh:), I have a question about the Second Bubble in the Room:

It Wasn’t a Bubble—It Was a Double Bubble (http://www.american.com/archive/2009/september/it-wasnt-a-bubble-it-was-a-double-bubble)
Quote
The good news about the second bubble is that commercial real estate, while a very large asset class, is much smaller than housing. At the prices of the top of the market, its total value was estimated at $6.7 trillion compared to residential real estate of about $22 trillion, or about one-third. These numbers would now both be reduced by about 30 percent.

However, the proportion of commercial real estate loans to residential housing loans in the loan portfolios of banks is much greater, $1.6 trillion compared to $2.1 trillion, respectively, or about three-quarters. So the second bubble will have an impact on banks greater than its overall market weight.

Leveraged real estate bubbles are by definition fed by rapidly expanding loans, supported by the rapidly rising prices of their real estate collateral. So to put the whole story together, we graph the expansion of the total real estate loans of the regulated banking system, indexed to the year 2000=100, against the double bubble real estate price indexes. An eloquent picture results: (SEE GRAPH)

Apparently the Second Bubble came and went without notice? If the "smaller banks" were failing because of the residential housing loans and the "Big Banks" are extending the Commercial Loans out at an un-sustainable pace - has the second bubble actually hit bottom?

What can I say, I'm slow. mutti

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on September 20, 2009, 07:43:13 am

I have been noticing a larger number of vehicles with minor body damage around than, say, two years ago.  I'm not talking damage to make the vehicle unsafe or even draw LEO attention. 

One example is a sedan which had the side of the bumper broken off (plastic one) that had been "repaired" with spray expanding foam insulation, some poly filler and a liberal coat of semi gloss black paint.  Looked fine.

Other things like dents (the pressure points sprayed with primer), lights fixed with tape (like Tuck Tape for brake lights), mismatched rims and alternate window covers.

I suppose the question becomes, is it they can't afford to fix it (like a college/university student, single parent) or is it fairly recent and they haven't gotten around to it yet?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on September 20, 2009, 09:48:40 am

I have been noticing a larger number of vehicles with minor body damage around than, say, two years ago.  I'm not talking damage to make the vehicle unsafe or even draw LEO attention. 

One example is a sedan which had the side of the bumper broken off (plastic one) that had been "repaired" with spray expanding foam insulation, some poly filler and a liberal coat of semi gloss black paint.  Looked fine.

Other things like dents (the pressure points sprayed with primer), lights fixed with tape (like Tuck Tape for brake lights), mismatched rims and alternate window covers.

I suppose the question becomes, is it they can't afford to fix it (like a college/university student, single parent) or is it fairly recent and they haven't gotten around to it yet?



I haven't noticed much of an uptick here, but the Idaho economy continues to be slightly behind as its growth  is fueled by money taken from other economies a couple years earlier.

I am seeing its beginnings though. A bit more auto body damage unrepaired, a few cars on the road that might have been retired in better times and tires still being used that are worn out.  This trend will be growing steadily.... have you noticed the unemployment figures? ... even the oaf-fish-al ones are up there. Actual is, I think, touching on 20% and climbing.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on September 21, 2009, 12:42:27 pm
AAR reports 1/3 of nations rail freight cars idled for lack of goods to move.

Slackafication in USA (http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?showtopic=838222)

Quote
The Association of American Railroads counts 501,472 freight cars stuck in storage at the beginning of September, roughly one-third of the nation's total fleet. In housing, 18.7 million homes were vacant in the second quarter, up from 15.9 million four years ago, according to the Census Bureau. Vacancies in shopping malls and office buildings also are up.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on September 21, 2009, 01:41:30 pm
AAR reports 1/3 of nations rail freight cars idled for lack of goods to move.

Slackafication in USA (http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?showtopic=838222)

Quote
The Association of American Railroads counts 501,472 freight cars stuck in storage at the beginning of September, roughly one-third of the nation's total fleet. In housing, 18.7 million homes were vacant in the second quarter, up from 15.9 million four years ago, according to the Census Bureau. Vacancies in shopping malls and office buildings also are up.

ND

I hear the same is true for our nations prostitutes.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on September 23, 2009, 12:59:09 pm
Sheriff's patrol fleet gets repossessed for non-payment. :police:

5 Ill. sheriff's cars repossessed (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/illinoisnews/story/F269C6FACDA2373B8625763A0058559E?OpenDocument)

Quote
The sheriff of cash-strapped Alexander County in deep southern Illinois says his crime-fighting efforts won't be deterred by the fact that he's recently lost three-quarters of his staff and five patrol cars.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on September 24, 2009, 09:58:11 am
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2651937/The-people-living-in-drains-below-Las-Vegas.html

Quote
LOVEBIRDS Steven and Kathryn share a well-organised home in bustling Las Vegas.
They have a neat, if compact kitchen, a furnished living area, and a bedroom complete with double bed, wardrobe and bookshelf featuring a wide selection including a Frank Sinatra biography and Spanish phrase book.

And they make their money in some of the biggest casinos in the world.

But their life is far from the ordinary.

Because, along with hundreds of others, the couple are part of a secret community living in the dark and dirty underground flood tunnels below the famous strip.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on September 25, 2009, 09:04:15 am
What if they held a Trade Expo for the G-20 participants and not a single country sent a member of their entourage to attend?

Expo to promote international trade (http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_643089.html)

Quote
The "Trade Expo for the G-20" will be held Sept. 22 at three city locations, to make it easier for summit attendees to visit at least one of the venues, said Duquesne University, one of the sponsors.

"This should be a nice trade opportunity for us," said Tom Lewis, president of Lewis Environmental Services, Etna, which plans to exhibit next week.

Quote
Rep. Jake Wheatley, D-Hill District, an expo co-sponsor, sent invitations to G-20 nation's embassies, as well as many of the news organizations worldwide that are expected to cover the economic summit Downtown next week.

I was listening to NPR on the way home yesterday and their was a reporter that attended this thing for the entire time and not a single member showed it. He spent the entire time interviewing vendors and watching them talk amongst themselves between the booths. He managed to get a soundbite from Rep Wheatley office at the end of the day who tried to put a spin on it by saying they had gotten media attention at least. The NPR journalist pointed out to him that the only media outlet who had sent a reporter was NPR.  :laugh:

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bluelinegirl on September 25, 2009, 11:57:18 am
Signs of a greater depression...look for my post titled 'Foreclosures are Illegal' which i will be posting as soon as I satisfy the '4 post' rule.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on October 05, 2009, 02:13:27 pm
AAR reports 1/3 of nations rail freight cars idled for lack of goods to move.

Slackafication in USA (http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?showtopic=838222)

Quote
The Association of American Railroads counts 501,472 freight cars stuck in storage at the beginning of September, roughly one-third of the nation's total fleet. In housing, 18.7 million homes were vacant in the second quarter, up from 15.9 million four years ago, according to the Census Bureau. Vacancies in shopping malls and office buildings also are up.

ND

This week is even lower. Rail freight is down another 3.5% over the previous week and that week was down nearly 20% from the same time last year. (Remember when the financial market were in chaos and Hurricane Ike had disrupted rail freight along the East Coast?) http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/09_WTR/092409_RailTraffic.aspx (http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/09_WTR/092409_RailTraffic.aspx)

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: coloradohermit on October 17, 2009, 03:52:00 pm
We just got the local weekly paper today and it had a new section for Teller County Notices of Delinquent Real Estate Taxes. what used to be a page is now 22 pages!  There are an average of 50 notices per page for a total of approx 1,100.  Demographic statistics show only 7900 households in the county.  That's a darn significant number of folks who probably aren't the type to be tax protesters. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on October 21, 2009, 04:53:10 am
I went to Home Depot yesterday to pick up some lumber and the place was e-m-p-t-y.  Granted, it was on a Tuesday but still, I would have thought during these troubling economic times people would be deep into 'fix it yourself' type of mode.  I talked with the nice young lady at the checkout and discovered that business is way down, most of the full-time personell have been let go, hourly wages frozen for the past year, etc etc.  It was depressing to hear the whole thing.  Perhaps that's why it is called a Depression...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on October 21, 2009, 04:56:37 am
We just got the local weekly paper today and it had a new section for Teller County Notices of Delinquent Real Estate Taxes. what used to be a page is now 22 pages!  There are an average of 50 notices per page for a total of approx 1,100.  Demographic statistics show only 7900 households in the county.  That's a darn significant number of folks who probably aren't the type to be tax protesters. 

D@**! You weren't kidding.

Link:
http://www.tellersteps.org/treasurer/09realmine.pdf
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on October 21, 2009, 10:23:15 am
We just got the local weekly paper today and it had a new section for Teller County Notices of Delinquent Real Estate Taxes. what used to be a page is now 22 pages!  There are an average of 50 notices per page for a total of approx 1,100.  Demographic statistics show only 7900 households in the county.  That's a darn significant number of folks who probably aren't the type to be tax protesters. 

Take a closer look at this. Some of these are not houses, but units in
some larger property. I happened to notice on the first page, that
Austin Douglas Lee has 3 units that are now PAID. They have the
same address (110 Wallace Drive) but have different designators.
One is L48 others include L49 and L54.

If an owner of an apartment building or a trailer park has fallen
on hard times, it will puff up the listing somewhat. That doesn't
necessarily mean he is out of renters, or that his renters are behind,
it just means he has money problems (may or may not be related
to the rentals) which prevents him from being caught up with
the taxes.

Bear


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 31, 2009, 09:40:15 am
Quote
If the "smaller banks" were failing because of the residential housing loans and the "Big Banks" are extending the Commercial Loans out at an un-sustainable pace - has the second bubble actually hit bottom?

I've been trying to watch the "second bubble" theory to understand a bit more about Commercial Real Estate.

So Bloomberg has this:  Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aoRYl03Rw1_g)
Quote
Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”

“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate -- the return that investors are demanding to buy a property -- are going up.”

And I can not see the entire article (or find another source) for WSJ reporting on new bank rules:

Banks Get New Rules on Property (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125694507086819833.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories#articleTabs%3Darticle)
Quote
Federal bank regulators issued guidelines allowing banks to keep loans on their books as "performing" even if the value of the underlying properties have fallen below the loan amount.

The volume of troubled commercial real-estate loans is skyrocketing.

It would seem to me that the new regulations are sort of like putting scotch tape on the end of a needle to hope the bubble doesn't burst.

Anyone?

mutti

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on October 31, 2009, 02:28:23 pm
A post here inspired a fuller treatment on my blog that is now back here in full.

I dug a 40′ trench that we planted full of flower bulbs. After a long winter of ice, snow, cold and muck, the nifty row of tulips and daffodils by our driveway entrance will put hundreds of smiles on our faces regardless of any stink coming from politicians or the economy they destroyed.

Forty bucks combined with a couple hours of playing in the sunshine and soil is an excellent investment in a bright, cheerful Spring. While easy to overlook, the emotional pantry ought to be considered from time to time.

(http://images3-us2.ixquick.com/cgi-bin/sf?f=b884e30f9f332f1010a9b4d314a6267f.jpg&anticache=161770)

It is an interesting commentary on the times that a wide selection of bulbs were available all over town at 30%-50% off, at the end of bulb-planting season. Usually by now there is nothing left. The retailers clearly anticipated better sales than they got.

What happened?

What does planting bulbs represent?

Optimism. That we will be in the same house enjoying the first flowers of spring. That we have a couple of hours and a spare forty bucks to invest in adding cheer to the place we will be living in next spring.

Job losses are everywhere, high and growing. Foreclosures are everywhere, high and growing. Retail sales are nowhere, low and shrinking. The employees who outnumber the customers have a real uneasy feeling about the time between now and spring. Even the oratorical mastery of The Great Wizard flashing on the big screen isn’t dispelling that dark foreboding they are trying to ignore.

While not yet widely discussed, optimism for the near future is in short supply. Definitely not the feeling that inspires tulip planting in your current yard.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: byron mc on November 29, 2009, 12:48:40 pm
Hey guys check out this webpage which is a news aggregator for
Stories in the "Great Depression 2009" category
http://beforeitsnews.com/stories/in/15

Good stuff here.




Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on November 29, 2009, 07:32:07 pm
Recently took a trip out to Montana...........and on the side of the road heading to Circle Montana that were an awful lot of RR cars for hauling semi trailers...................over 13 miles of them..............
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on November 29, 2009, 08:02:53 pm
Nice smattering of news points... following the way down.

Black Friday Spending Down 8 pct. – Monday, November 30, 2009
Contaminated mining environments: It's better to be green – Monday, November 30, 2009
After Hyperinflation Disaster, Zimbabwe on Gold Standard – Sunday, November 29, 2009
Max Keiser: India, China and Germany to Announce Large Gold Purchases – Saturday, November 28, 2009
Dubai Crisis May End in Default – Friday, November 27, 2009
Bad Economy Means Black Friday Starts a Day Early – Friday, November 27, 2009
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China, Gold and the Shift of Civilization – Friday, November 27, 2009
Banks Hide Half their Losses - IMF – Thursday, November 26, 2009
India Plans to Buy More IMF Gold – Thursday, November 26, 2009
US Mint Suspends Gold and Silver Eagle Sales – Thursday, November 26, 2009
Sri Lanka Buys 10 Tons of IMF Gold – Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Major Gold Melt Up Coming – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
FDIC Failed Bank List – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Gold Hoard Flees New York City Banks – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Next Financial Crisis Will Hit in First Half of 2010 – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
A Mad Rush as Gold Bugs Get the Boot – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Bill to Audit the Fed Comes Closer to Fruition – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Fed-Covert Money Printing Alert – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Abolish The Federal Reserve Bank! – Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Two Nickels – Monday, November 23, 2009
Is the GLD ETF Driving Gold Prices Higher? – Monday, November 23, 2009
&c....
Title: Midnight in the U.S. food-stamp economy
Post by: byron mc on December 18, 2009, 07:39:57 am

Quote
Nearly $55 billion in food stamps may be redeemed this year, up from about $37 billion in 2008

Quote
The USDA expects to have more than $64 billion to spend on food stamp benefits in fiscal 2010,


Midnight in the U.S. food-stamp economy
Dec 18, 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BH2C220091218

The article goes into detail about people shopping at Costco and how the last day of the month at 11PM is the busiest.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: byron mc on December 27, 2009, 05:38:53 pm
Quote
In Nevada and other states hit hard by the housing crisis, stripping fixtures and appliances from homes in foreclosure has become commonplace.
It is done by the owner, just before the bank forecloses on the mortgage and takes the property back.

In other parts of the country, however, the police are stymied. As it turns out, several troubled states, like Nevada, have no specific criminal prohibition against stripping fixtures from a property before foreclosure.


Quote
The author of the Craigslist posting in Las Vegas made no effort to disguise his or her intentions.
“Stripping House — Before Foreclosure,” the ad declared, offering potential buyers the cabinets and countertops, the sinks and toilets, the doors, the appliances, the sprinklers. Even the palm and citrus trees in the yard were for sale,


Quote
After the F.B.I. publicized the arrest of Mr. Guzman and a handful of others caught stripping homes, the number of ads for stripped goods on Craigslist in Phoenix dropped sharply.

“That was our objective — to get the word out that stripping a foreclosed home is illegal,” Ms. Halferty said.

Nice Home. Where’s the Rest of It?
The New York Times  Published: Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 |
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34577150/

while it may be illegal. it is happening.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 28, 2009, 01:20:00 pm
Quote
...
Some see an upside. Justin Cellini, 29, spent the last year being rejected by lender after lender in his quest for a home loan. Finally, with cash from relatives, he was able to buy a four-bedroom, two-bath house in Hollywood, Fla., that had been stripped by its former occupants.

He paid $111,000. “I’m actually thankful that they stripped the house,” Mr. Cellini said. “It wound up costing me a lot less money in the end.”

He has been refurbishing it on the cheap — by buying fixtures and appliances off Craigslist.

ba-da-bing! <rimshot>

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 29, 2010, 11:33:04 am
Happy Days Are Here Again!!!!!

Economy Grows 5.7 Percent; Chicago PMI Jumps (http://www.cnbc.com/id/35141739)

Quote
The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest in more than six years, as businesses made less-aggressive cuts to inventories and stepped up spending.

Separately, The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said on Friday its index of Midwest business activity rose more than expected in January to 61.5 from 58.7 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a January figure of 57.4. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy.

And yet I'm still not getting it. The Dow Jones Trucking Index was effectively flat for 2009. Intermodel and rail traffic remains sharply down. AAR Reports Weekly U.S. Rail Freight Traffic Remains Down (http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/12_WTR/121709_RailTraffic.aspx) Great lakes shipping is down. 2009 Great Lakes Iron Ore Total Lowest Since 1938 (http://www.lcaships.com/glore1209-text.pdf) and Slow December Caps Disappointing Year for Lakes Coal Trade (http://www.lcaships.com/coal1209-text.pdf).

How are they fudging the numbers this time? Commerce requires goods to be moved about yet major indicies of movement are either flat or down. :contract:

[/head scratch]
ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Plinker-MS on February 05, 2010, 04:04:47 pm
The Brookshire's grocery store chain is closing 2 stores and selling 2 others in the Jackson, MS area.

http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20100114/BIZ/1140359/Brookshire%5C-s-to-pull-out


In practical terms, for the Plinker household, that means there are 4 going-out-of-business sales within driving distance and it is time to stock up.

"She" has gone foraging and returned with much loot, most of it purchased at a very deep discount.  Our pantry is now overflowing with abundance.

I told her:  "This is so cool!  They should have going out of business sales like this every month or so..."

I suppose I should be careful what I wish for  :ph34r:


Take advantage of opportunities like this while you can. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on February 10, 2010, 11:35:30 am
Cooling Trend Slows Rail Freight (http://www.joc.com/node/416350)

Quote
As Canadian and Mexican traffic grows, executives hope winter storms are to blame for U.S. chill

Railroads are hoping winter storms are the main reason freight traffic has slowed since November, but there are growing concerns that a new chill may have taken hold of the broader recovery.

Those concerns show up across a range of reports, from a recent Federal Reserve survey indicating tepid freight shipping activity as 2010 began, to a mild decline in December manufacturing output and a sharp fall in that month’s home sales.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on April 05, 2010, 09:00:58 am
IMF: This Recovery Will Die Without More Stimulus (http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-this-recovery-will-die-without-stimulus-2010-4#ixzz0kEZOPMBZ)

Apparently  now that the economy is down - it's time to kick it a few more times.

(Although I don't see the supporting data to justify the headline in this little article)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on April 12, 2010, 03:18:29 pm
...and while MSM reports that the Recession is now "turning the corner almost over", the Wall Street Journal reports that

U.S. Posts 18th Straight Monthly Budget Deficit in March  (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303828304575180200026010076.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Quote
Despite a substantial trimming of government bailout spending, the U.S. posted a record 18th straight budget deficit in March.

The government spent $65.39 billion more than it collected last month, the U.S. Treasury said in its monthly budget statement released Monday.

For the first half of fiscal 2010, the government ran a $716.99 billion deficit, compared to a $781.39 billion shortfall in the first six months of fiscal 2009.

In (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCMuQC3VsNWE&refer=worldwide_news) 2006 Harry Reid (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCMuQC3VsNWE&refer=worldwide_news) was not exactly happy with the then current administration:
Quote
A deficit ``smaller than $300 billion, is that anything to brag about?'' Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said on the floor of the Senate. ``I think not.''

I'm sure it's just that "we" don't understand, etc. etc....

Even if the MSM won't call this a "Depression" it can be depressing. Seems to be a very slow-mo train wreck.



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: motomom on April 12, 2010, 03:23:44 pm
Maybe more folks are "going Galt" than we realize.   :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: El Topo on April 12, 2010, 05:42:02 pm
To anyone deluding themselves into thinking that "the recession is over" I ask them if they actually READ the news instead of just listening to it or watching it on the biggest waste of time in history: Television. You have to be seriously tuned-out to think that this is over. There is no job creation, no open lines of "credit",  the only people making money are those high up in wall street and we all know where they got it: from the taxpayers (again).

I have talked to some people that "just think" that the recession is over and things are getting better. There are no real reasons behind it. It is some serious mind control at work to make so many people "think" that things are getting better when in reality all things point to it getting WORSE. If anything when the media is spreading lies about recovery it is probably just get the brainless and spineless majority to not mind being robbed of trillions of dollars for the third time in less than three years.

Apathetic people just really, really piss me off. Now I know why/how the NWO will eradicate so many, because it will be SO DAMN EASY. My image of the vast majority of the American public is an abused & beaten dog that has been de-barked but continues to receive regular beatings and will do anything to avoid the inevitable, except stand up for itself.  It seems that dignity is a dying virtue.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on April 13, 2010, 05:03:23 am
I have talked to some people that "just think" that the recession is over and things are getting better. There are no real reasons behind it. It is some serious mind control at work to make so many people "think" that things are getting better when in reality all things point to it getting WORSE. If anything when the media is spreading lies about recovery it is probably just get the brainless and spineless majority to not mind being robbed of trillions of dollars for the third time in less than three years.

Apathetic people just really, really piss me off. Now I know why/how the NWO will eradicate so many, because it will be SO DAMN EASY. My image of the vast majority of the American public is an abused & beaten dog that has been de-barked but continues to receive regular beatings and will do anything to avoid the inevitable, except stand up for itself.  It seems that dignity is a dying virtue.

I hear ya.  My in-laws trust the goobermint and main stream media so much that they would keep on believing past the point of some .gov thugs destroying them.  I've given up talking politics to them as they refuse to believe anything other than what Obama or Katie Couric or (pick your talking head) says.   :BangHead:  Thank God my darling wife now shares my own views.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on April 13, 2010, 07:28:37 am
Record mortgage defaults inspire modern day epicureanism, hedonism. "Eat, drink, and be merry. All hail consumer spending!"

Mortgage Defaults May Be Driving Consumer Spending (http://www.cnbc.com/id/36422316)

Quote
Okay, so 7.9 million Americans are not paying their mortgages.

Are we really thinking about the implications of that?

I've already reported studies that show Americans are now far more likely to pay their other bills first before their mortgage (which is a big turnaround historically speaking.)

Quote
On top of that, the rate at which formerly current borrowers are defaulting now is rising. I guess it's just another, innovative way of using your home as your ATM.  It currently takes well over a year, in some cases nearly two years, to go from missing a payment to being chucked out of your home.

That's a lot of time to go shopping.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: hangman on April 13, 2010, 10:09:12 am
Quote
IMF: This Recovery Will Die Without More Stimulus

Translation: there's still some looting of the treasury to do. It appears as if their intent is to remove the last dime from the last American who isn't an elite.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Jebur27 on April 13, 2010, 12:08:13 pm
Record mortgage defaults inspire modern day epicureanism, hedonism. "Eat, drink, and be merry. All hail consumer spending!"

Mortgage Defaults May Be Driving Consumer Spending (http://www.cnbc.com/id/36422316)

Quote
Okay, so 7.9 million Americans are not paying their mortgages.

Are we really thinking about the implications of that?

I've already reported studies that show Americans are now far more likely to pay their other bills first before their mortgage (which is a big turnaround historically speaking.)

Quote
On top of that, the rate at which formerly current borrowers are defaulting now is rising. I guess it's just another, innovative way of using your home as your ATM.  It currently takes well over a year, in some cases nearly two years, to go from missing a payment to being chucked out of your home.

That's a lot of time to go shopping.

ND

In 2008, according to NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94921465), there were about 51 million first mortgages.  Even if you assume a 5% growth in that pool over the last year & a half, that means that almost 15% of first mortgages are delinquent.  That means that, in our suburban neighborhood of 66 homes, it is likely that 9 to 10 are behind on their mortgages. 

I've always known that a significant % of households live paycheck-to-paycheck (61% in 2009, according to this article (http://thehiringsite.careerbuilder.com/2009/09/22/more-workers-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-careerbuilder-survey-finds/), up from 49% in 2008), but, apparently, these paychecks are less able to cover until the next. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: El Topo on April 14, 2010, 06:03:40 pm
Quote
IMF: This Recovery Will Die Without More Stimulus

Translation: there's still some looting of the treasury to do. It appears as if their intent is to remove the last dime from the last American who isn't an elite.

Hangman,

I read today in two seperate places about a total sum of $525 billion missing in a week. . . I got the figure adding the totals together from the articles... 

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2186-Did-The-Fed-Just-Surreptitiously-Bail-Out-Europe.html

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10145.htm
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 23, 2010, 10:17:02 am
Here is an interesting little chart/conversation that seems to indicate what many of us are thinking "Recovery? What Recovery?"

Ugly Chart of the Day: Lumber As Housing Proxy (http://seekingalpha.com/article/211377-ugly-chart-of-the-day-lumber-as-housing-proxy?source=yahoo)
Quote
With home purchase tax incentives ending, employment not improving and the stimulus induced bounce in GDP fading, the outlook for housing is dimming. Lumber may well drop back into the down trend channel. If it does, those (such as this analyst) who have been predicting that the bottom for housing has not yet been reached, both in price and sales volume, will probably be vindicated.

The FINVIZ.com collection of charts is quite interesting as well, specifically the metals: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=w1  although it is interesting to look around at foodstuffs .







Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on June 23, 2010, 10:29:24 am
Scary chart indeed.  So why are TPTB insisting that we are in a recovery?  Too dumb or too scared to admit the truth?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 23, 2010, 11:24:16 am
Scary chart indeed.  So why are TPTB insisting that we are in a recovery?  Too dumb or too scared to admit the truth?

In my very limited experience as long as TPTB tell people that everything is "A Okay" individuals will continue on as normal. That is of course until they cannot afford to eat or purchase lifes little luxuries.

Why care right now when you can theoretically stay in your home until foreclosure comes (sometimes up to several years), run up your CC's to support your standard of living and wait for the chicken to fall into your pot from TPTB?  Not that I think that there are many of us on this board that are taking these actions - personal responsibility seems to run pretty deep here.

But what do I know?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on June 23, 2010, 01:43:57 pm
Also depends on what you call a "recovery." Most politician types peg that to tax revenues and such like. Makes sense to them anyway. sigh
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on June 23, 2010, 02:44:03 pm
May railroad traffic flat to down over 2008 level. Coal cars are the only bright spot. More electricity to run air conditioners.
AAR Reports Monthly Rail Traffic Continues Mixed Gains in May 2010 (Gains over last years crappy numbers, not pre-recession) (http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2010/06/060710-RailTimeIndicators.aspx)

The coal increases could also just be a shifting of transportation modes between industries.
Lakes Coal Trade Dips a Bit in April (http://www.lcaships.com/coal%200410%20-%20text.pdf)

Quote
Coal shipments on the Great Lakes totaled 2.5 million net tons in April, a decrease of 9.5 percent compared to a year ago. However, given that the economy was in low gear a year ago, the month’s 5-year average is the better measure, and in that regard, this April’s loadings are more than 32 percent off the pace.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on June 24, 2010, 04:20:59 am
Hmmm, 12 trillion for healthcare according to some sources.  Divide that by the 51 million mortgages mentioned earlier and you get about 235,000 each.  That would fix an awful lot, a lot better than creating a new bureaucracy and more .gov wouldn't it?  That would definitely unlock the log jam, pay off a butload of mortgages.  It would plain leave money out there ( no need to tax to generate the revenue) to be used on the market rather than in nonsensical, nonproductive government hog mash.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lenny on June 24, 2010, 07:13:16 am
As long as they don't print up an extra $12 trillion to "finance" it, why not? If they pay for it by bringing the troops home and canceling socialized medicine, it's a win.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on June 24, 2010, 06:30:08 pm
May railroad traffic flat to down over 2008 level. Coal cars are the only bright spot. More electricity to run air conditioners.
AAR Reports Monthly Rail Traffic Continues Mixed Gains in May 2010 (Gains over last years crappy numbers, not pre-recession) (http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2010/06/060710-RailTimeIndicators.aspx)

The coal increases could also just be a shifting of transportation modes between industries.
Lakes Coal Trade Dips a Bit in April (http://www.lcaships.com/coal%200410%20-%20text.pdf)

Quote
Coal shipments on the Great Lakes totaled 2.5 million net tons in April, a decrease of 9.5 percent compared to a year ago. However, given that the economy was in low gear a year ago, the month’s 5-year average is the better measure, and in that regard, this April’s loadings are more than 32 percent off the pace.

ND

It may not be as simple as shifting transportation modes.  DTE is experiencing a net decline in demand for electric power. 

Quote
Michigan is one of only two states that lost [20]population in 2007.[21][22] It has the highest unemployment rate in the country and the forecast is not optimistic because of Big 3 capacity downsizing. In January, 2009, Michigan's unemployment number hit 10.6%.[23]

As a result, Michigan’s two largest utilities, “DTE and CMS reported electricity sales down about 4 percent from the same quarter a year ago.” Michigan “is using less electricity than we were in 2000” according to a recent article. [24]

Even the chief economist for the very conservative Mackinac Center, a right wing think tank in Midland, MI, David Littmann, has stated “...considering the many plant closings and losses of employment and population, a realistic assessment would anticipate up to five years of declining energy demand in Michigan.”[25]

In November, 2008, Consumer's Energy announced that electrical demand was down, but both Consumer's and LS Power re-affirmed their commitment to build power plants planned for Bay and Midland County.[26]

Now, both utilities have forcast that electrical demand will continue to decline, for a variety of reasons, including [27]declining Michigan population through 2016, central A/C saturation is maturing, new air conditioners are more efficient, energy efficiency, load response and demand response at peak. DTE forecasts a 6% decline in peak demand from 2006 to 2013,[28] and Consumer's Energy forcasts approximately 5% decline by 2018.[29]
Michigan and coal (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Michigan_and_coal#cite_note-22)

So more A/C is not the cause of new coal shipments.  They are burning less coal, not more, and expect that trend to continue.

It's a complex picture.  Michigan coal fields were abandoned in the 1960s.  Coal is shipped by both rail and water, and Michigan is a crossroads for water shipments.  Relatively small shifts in the fraction of coal shipped via water versus rail could explain the very small uptick.  The overall trend is down and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on June 25, 2010, 02:21:22 am
Sashimi grade Skipjack tuna has risen from $4 per lb to $8 per lb. Red Snapper seems to have stayed the same and Talapia is a few cents higher than last year.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on July 07, 2010, 05:59:05 pm
I noticed an article today that was titled about how the increase in seafood was partially being blamed on the oil leak.

Not sure where the tuna comes from ...but.. if I can make a few more bucks off it and blame it on BP.. why not?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on July 07, 2010, 10:10:00 pm
range of the skipjack tuna is in red:

(http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/gallery/Descript/SkipjackTuna/skipjackbasemap.JPG)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Who...me? on July 11, 2010, 08:33:02 am
Sashimi grade Skipjack tuna has risen from $4 per lb to $8 per lb. Red Snapper seems to have stayed the same and Talapia is a few cents higher than last year.

Talapia has most likely remained stable because it is a fresh water fish farmed extensively and thus not affected my overfishing, oil spills and what not.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mac the Knife on July 11, 2010, 12:02:13 pm
I drive for a living in the northern Illinois region around Chicago, and it might just be me, but I have noticed a considerable decline in large truck traffic that has started in the past 4 or 5 months. It seems to me to be down about 20 to 40 percent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on July 21, 2010, 10:33:36 pm
I noticed an article today that was titled about how the increase in seafood was partially being blamed on the oil leak.

Not sure where the tuna comes from ...but.. if I can make a few more bucks off it and blame it on BP.. why not?

Don't they pack some of it in oil?  BP has then helped packing tuna cause it's already coated in oil...which would make it cheaper. :idea1:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Zookeeper on July 22, 2010, 01:43:30 am
 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on July 22, 2010, 03:40:16 am
Railroad and truck frieght is down.  My stepfather has been working 3 day weeks for over a year now- there are not enough trucks on the road to keep anyone below master rating employed except for "specialists".  Speciaslists are cheaper to send out than keep one around locally. 

A friend who works(ed) the railroad has been laid off for 6 months now.  He recently got a job stocking shelves in a supermarket.  A lot less pay, but it covers the bills.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on July 28, 2010, 07:44:02 am
From the Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO - warning .gov site)

Federal Debt and the Risk of a Financial Crisis (http://cboblog.cbo.gov/)

Quote
Unless policymakers restrain the growth of spending, increase revenues significantly as a share of GDP, or adopt some combination of those two approaches, growing budget deficits will cause debt to rise to unsupportable levels, as shown in the figure below.

(http://cboblog.cbo.gov/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Figure1_forWeb.png)

And behind doors number 1, 2, and 3 - the options are not promising:

Quote
Options for responding to a fiscal crisis would be limited and unattractive. The government would need to undertake some combination of three actions. One action could be changing the terms of its existing debt. This would make it difficult and costly to borrow in the future. A second action could be adopting an inflationary monetary policy by increasing the supply of money. However, this approach would have negative consequences for both the economy and future budget deficits. A third action could be implementing an austerity program of spending cuts and tax increases. Such budgetary adjustments, in the face of a fiscal crisis, would be more drastic and painful than those that would have been necessary had the adjustments come sooner.

I notice the "Comment" section is off  ^_^




Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on July 28, 2010, 08:09:33 am
"Unsupportable levels?" We reached that point a very long time ago. The smoke and mirrors kept a lot of folks fooled for a while, but the chickens are coming home to roost now and can't be ignored.

I'll take door number 4:

Collapse the entire "government" and let the market take its course. The correction WILL be painful, however it happens, but more of the same crap that caused the crash will never fix it.

And option #4 won't even get any hearing, of course. At least not until the shooting starts, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on July 29, 2010, 05:53:42 am
They've already chosen door #2; increasing the supply of money.  See the graph below, courtesy of the St. Louis fed.

This is always the way of dying empires.  The benefits of printing money go to the powerful immediately, while the many pains go to the rest of us only after some delay.  Look at the chart, the money supply was more than doubled nearly two years ago, but the crushing increase in everyday prices hasn't happened - yet.  It will.

I agree with you ML, the situation became unsupportable long ago.  But the US economy is an enormous thing, and there are literally millions of people at work every day, real producers.  They keep it going, and they will re-create something once this monstrosity dies.  The producers are now outnumbered by the parasites, so there is no doubt about the ultimate outcome, but a beast this large dies slowly.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 09, 2010, 09:15:07 am
Fed set to downgrade outlook for US (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dedcb986-a316-11df-8cf4-00144feabdc0.html)
Quote
Smaller measures to help the economy could initially take the form of a decision to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities held by the US central bank, thereby preventing the Fed’s balance sheet from shrinking naturally.

(i.e. move some digital money from point A to point L and pretend everything is "less bad")

We all know how well that works.....

Freddie Mac requests $1.8B in aid after 2Q loss (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i61IvzXZ9v93-0lhav_WRztb1aIgD9HG0A0G1)
Quote
Government-controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac is asking for $1.8 billion in additional federal aid after posting a larger loss in the second quarter.

Freddie Mac said Monday it lost $6 billion, or $1.85 per share, in the April-to-June period. The company is required to pay a 10 percent annual dividend to the Treasury Department on money it has received from the government. That made up $1.3 billion of the company's second-quarter losses.

The company lost $840 million, or 26 cents a share, in the same quarter last year.
Quote
Over the next year, lawmakers plan to review the nation's mortgage-lending system and consider a potential replacement for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Somewhere else the suggestion was made in June to create:

"I like the name Felica (Federal Elite Investment Communist Association) – has a certain elegance to it." (http://ppjg.wordpress.com/2010/06/18/delisting-of-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-largely-ignored/#comment-5575)

Whoo whoo - the train is rolling down the tracks!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 09, 2010, 06:09:28 pm
if....this....is.....true....WOULD......TPTB......PLEASE......STOP........HELPING........US.......



An August Surprise from Obama? (http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/?cp=3#comments)

Quote
Main Street may be about to get its own gigantic bailout. Rumors are running wild from Washington to Wall Street that the Obama administration is about to order government-controlled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to forgive a portion of the mortgage debt of millions of Americans who owe more than what their homes are worth. An estimated 15 million U.S. mortgages – one in five – are underwater with negative equity of some $800 billion. Recall that on Christmas Eve 2009, the Treasury Department waived a $400 billion limit on financial assistance to Fannie and Freddie, pledging unlimited help. The actual vehicle for the bailout could be the Bush-era Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, a sister program to Obama’s loan modification effort. HARP was just extended through June 30, 2011.

The move, if it happens, would be a stunning political and economic bombshell less than 100 days before a midterm election in which Democrats are currently expected to suffer massive, if not historic losses. The key date to watch is August 17 when the Treasury Department holds a much-hyped meeting on the future of Fannie and Freddie. A few key points:

Never, Ever Underestimate the Stupidity of Politics (http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/09/never-ever-underestimate-the-stupidity-of-politics)

Quote
If we've learned anything from watching government response to this nation's housing and economic crisis, it's this: the more irrevocably stupid an idea is, the more likely it becomes that our politicians will tend to consider it. It's already been proven true more than once, across two different administrations.

While I was away last week on a much-needed vacation, the rest of the financial press — and politicos the nation over — found themselves lathered up over the rumor of a government-led mortgage principal forgiveness push. Reuters' own James Pethokoukis, a respected and politically-connected editor, was the first to give the rumors some airtime in the financial press, citing some speculative comments from Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Securities. The Treasury immediately denied the rumors.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on August 09, 2010, 06:39:18 pm
I'm sure I could pay off my mortgage if they just refunded me all the taxes they stole from me.  That way it wouldn't be a "bailout" or "handout."  It would just be giving me MY damn money back.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 11, 2010, 05:05:37 pm
Atlanta: 30,000 line up for housing vouchers, some get rowdy (http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/30-00030-000-line-up-589653.html)
Quote
Thirty thousand people showed up to receive Section 8 housing applications in East Point Wednesday, suffering through hours in the hot sun, angry flare-ups in the crowd and lots of frustration and confusion for a chance to receive a government-subsidized apartment.
Quote
Still, officials of East Point declared the day a success. Nobody was arrested and nobody was seriously injured, they said. It was an assessment roundly challenged by many of the people who had to go through it.

What about the issue that 30K people (some just hanging out in line with the applicants) showed up needing help because of the high cost of housing, under the 1/2 median (19K annual was the cut off) and no employment.......naw ....just  a fluke

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: jamie on August 13, 2010, 11:34:18 pm
And then there are continuous articles of this nature.  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21676.html

Economy Heading for a Systemic Collapse into Hyperinflationary Great Depression
Economics / Great Depression II Aug 05, 2010 - 02:29 PM

By: The_Energy_Report
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on August 16, 2010, 05:12:54 am
<snip> a government-subsidized apartment.

Sounds... charming.

All kidding aside though, if this place looks better than the first four apartments I lived in I'm gonna be pissed!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on August 16, 2010, 10:53:25 am
<snip> a government-subsidized apartment.

Sounds... charming.

All kidding aside though, if this place looks better than the first four apartments I lived in I'm gonna be pissed!

Welcome to downtown Moscow, circa 1960.  Your envy can probably rest easy.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on August 16, 2010, 11:51:34 am
Economy Heading for a Systemic Collapse into Hyperinflationary Great Depression
Economics / Great Depression II Aug 05, 2010 - 02:29 PM

Rather than read a highly condensed interview with John Williams, visit his website www.shadowstats.com
and read the full report

HYPERINFLATION SPECIAL REPORT (UPDATE 2010) (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-2010)

Quote
A Great Collapse. The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar.

It gets better....


Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on August 16, 2010, 07:23:28 pm
My favorite manga scantilations site was closed down. Normally, the publishers just consider it free advertising and leave them alone, but due to reduced sales, they blamed the scantilators, and closed the site with a court order.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 23, 2010, 09:20:23 am
der Spiegel has a pretty soft article on The Erosion of the Middle Class. What stuck with me from the article (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,712496,00.html) was this graph:

(http://www.spiegel.de/images/image-122268-galleryV9-qnff.jpg)

(dates are:  October '92, June '07, May '10)

It would make a good bookmark to pass around for people to put in their reading material. Of course if one stretched it out to 8"x11" it wouldn't be so "dramatic".
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 27, 2010, 08:41:10 am
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help at Palm Beach County Convention Center (http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/thousands-line-up-before-dawn-for-mortgage-help-882338.html)

Quote
Thousands of people are lined up this morning outside the Palm Beach County Convention Center - some arriving by the busload, hoping the Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America will help them save their homes.

They are here from throughout the country, including Detroit and California.

"I'm here because I have to be," said P. Reed, who drove all night from South Carolina. "They put me in foreclosure last week."

Okay. From California? I guess that'll stimulate the economy (transportation costs, hotel, food, etc.) What an interesting little study it would be to see how much was spent in this locale vs when these events don't happen.

Especially since the NACA has programs TBD elsewhere.  Interesting that they partner with BOA and Citigroup - I guess it is sort of a "captive market".

Considering that they are not in the BBB  and that this is what BBB has to say, I might think twice.
Quote
The BBB has requested basic information from this company. The BBB has not received a response. Without this information, the BBB may not have current information concerning such things as the company's management or its nature of business.

But desperate times call for desperate measures ATT for some people.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 14, 2010, 06:14:16 pm
Bank Repossession of Homes Sets New Record in August (http://www.cnbc.com/id/39175282)
Quote
The nation's banks repossessed a record number of homes in August, according to industry sources. RealtyTrac,  an online foreclosure sale site, will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.

That is the highest since the site began tracking in 2005. July's repossession number was the second highest on record. The last highest was 93,777 in May of 2010.

Goodness! Of course it is the Consumers fault. If we would just spend what we don't have on what we don't need - why it would all be good again.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on September 14, 2010, 06:46:07 pm
Quote
If we would just spend what we don't have on what we don't need - why it would all be good again.

It occurs to me that people spending what they don't have, on what they don't need, and buying houses and cars/trucks that they couldn't even begin to afford simply because their neighbor did it was the start of "the march of the lemmings".......  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 07, 2010, 09:14:38 am
Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix  (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection#articleTabs=article)

Quote
And, in an interview, Chicago Fed Charles Evans said, "It seems to me if we could somehow get lower real interest rates so that the amount of excess savings that is taking place relative to investment needs is lowered, that would be one channel for stimulating the economy."

"excess savings" - I had to blink at the above quote. What economy is Mr. Evans looking at?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on October 07, 2010, 09:46:54 am
I don't agree with all of this, of course, but he makes some good points.

*No Way Out*
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Article/076546-2010-10-06-no-way-out.htm
Reported by Doug Casey
Can we prevent the status quo from falling apart, and preclude these
messy changes? Further, should we, if we could?

Entirely apart from the fact that change is an essential part of life -
and I think the status quo is in dire need of some real change (although
absolutely not the kind Obama and his posse might have in mind) - I
actually don't think there's a realistic solution to the problems the
world is facing in this decade.

Yes, there are solutions that the government could proactively bring
about - almost entirely by doing less, rather than more. But the odds of
the U.S. voluntarily defaulting on its debt, abolishing the Fed, using
gold as money, abolishing all agencies not specifically designated in
the Constitution, eliminating the income tax, and cutting back on
military expenditures by about 90% -- among other things - are so small
as to be considered a fantasy.

In fact, the concept of invoking changes of that scale are too scary for
most to even contemplate. But they'll happen anyway. Which means these
things aren't going to happen voluntarily, under some kind of control,
and in a more or less orderly manner. Even so, because anything that
must happen will happen - all these things and more will actually happen
and, in the happening, will be most unpleasant and dangerous.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 07, 2010, 06:52:36 pm
I don't agree with all of it either, but I read every word.  Casey says things that need saying.  If he's not 100% right 100% of the time, he's still a more reliable source than most.

Casey wrote:
Quote
I’m afraid the current state of affairs is corrupt through and through. From the top of the financial world in New York, to the top of the political world in DC, right down to the average man on the street, 50% of whom aren’t obligated to pay income taxes but feel entitled to be net recipients of government largesse at the expense of others. Even among those that have assets, there’s no feeling of shame in gaming the system any way possible. There’s no longer any onus to being one of the 40 million people on electronic food stamps, or defaulting on one’s mortgage and continuing to live in the house, and collecting indefinitely extended unemployment benefits. Bankruptcy is just something you do when needed.

And Claire wrote (http://www.backwoodshome.com/blogs/ClaireWolfe/2010/10/05/unreliable-people/#comments):
Quote
Whatever happened to the concept of a man’s word being his bond? When did “being a man of his word” become so utterly, utterly unimportant?

There is a connection.  We live in an age of lies, but that will change.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on October 07, 2010, 11:52:40 pm

There is a connection.  We live in an age of lies, but that will change.

Peace,

Silver

I fear we have to cross the hot-coals-bed of violence before we return to the age of honor and responsibility.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 28, 2010, 11:08:19 am
So - Fed asks if  $1 Trillion in 2011 would be enough...Fed Asks Dealers to Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/fed-asks-dealers-to-estimate-size-impact-of-debt-purchases.html).

Quote
The Federal Reserve asked bond dealers and investors for projections of central bank asset purchases over the next six months, along with the likely effect on yields, as it seeks to gauge the possible impact of new efforts to spur growth.

The New York Fed survey, obtained by Bloomberg News, asks about expectations for the initial size of any new program of debt purchases and the time over which it would be completed. It also asks firms how often they anticipate the Fed will re- evaluate the program, and to estimate its ultimate size.

With their benchmark interest rate near zero, policy makers meet Nov. 2-3 to consider steps to boost an economy that’s growing too slowly to reduce unemployment near a 26-year high. Financial-market participants are focusing on the size, timing and maturities of likely purchases aimed at lowering long-term rates, with estimates reaching $1 trillion or more.

Oh those evil markets. Look what they're saying now:

Quote
    “What the market wants to hear is that the Fed is going to buy $1 trillion” of Treasuries, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “Concerns that it might be less is causing investors to worry about how deep and broad this program is going to be.”

Thank goodness we have a Fed backed by the current Administration who took those evil profiteers in hand by denouncing the profits and profit making process! With this whole "not politics as usual" Obama Administration we are keeping the Debt under control - I know - I know - it's way more complicated than that.

mutti

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on October 28, 2010, 06:25:09 pm
Life Is a Cabaret, Old Chum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabaret_(musical)).
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 17, 2010, 04:11:10 pm
"There is no need to panic, as ____ has more than enough effective policy options to combat inflation,"

"saying it has enough “tools” to handle budding problems."

Which of the above statements was issued in the U.S. through Bernanke two days ago and which was issued by China today?

Indeed a world Economy or maybe all Economists have the same language training program.

mutti
First Statement (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/burger-prices-rise-as-maccas-yield-to-chinas-inflationary-pressures/story-e6frg90o-1225955334798)
Second statement (http://www.kansascity.com/2010/11/15/2436163/feds-flirting-with-inflation-can.html#ixzz15a1e4ozT)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on November 22, 2010, 08:12:41 pm

I'm not sure it means anything, or is happening all over, however..

I've recently taken notice that there does not seem to be as much advertising on the local city transit buses as there used to be.  Now, it is not uncommon to see 25% of the buses with nothing filling the side displays and the internal roof tracks running at 25-30% empty.  It seems like just a year ago when they were all full.  And too boot, most of the advertising seems to be some level of government advertising or from a government entity (like a national museum).

Anyone else noticing this?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: poto on November 23, 2010, 02:51:15 pm

I'm not sure it means anything, or is happening all over, however..

I've recently taken notice that there does not seem to be as much advertising on the local city transit buses as there used to be.  Now, it is not uncommon to see 25% of the buses with nothing filling the side displays and the internal roof tracks running at 25-30% empty.  It seems like just a year ago when they were all full.  And too boot, most of the advertising seems to be some level of government advertising or from a government entity (like a national museum).

Anyone else noticing this?

Not many buses around where I live, but I have noticed a lot of empty billboards.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on November 24, 2010, 01:30:44 pm
I toured the malls, of 6 that I visited 1 has at least 1/3 of its spaces unrented. I did not see a single one that had less than 4 free spaces........but they averaged about 20% empty.  That is a fair chunk of retail clerks, Managers and a couple of others out of jobs.  something like 100 people?

That doesn't mention the for rent signs in the corner strios, closed down coffee shops, and drive thrus............
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on November 25, 2010, 10:59:30 pm

The large mall in a nearby city (where as in Canada, a 3 hour drive is nearby) is currently considered a sinking ship.

It's for sale.  The current owners can't afford to replace the chiller in the air conditioning system.  It's one million dollars to buy a replacement.  Last time I was there, vacancy rates were at about 30%, and some stores looked like they were making plans.

It's not likely being helped out by a new "big box" fashion strip mall in the city.  All the major chains have stores there.  Why go to the mall and walk past all those stores you don't want to shop at when you can go to a strip mall and go to just those you want?


I had a short conversation with a guy who changes billboards.  Apparently, his company has taken to just leaving expired signs in place rather than having him and his pal go take them down and leave them empty.  (his company runs the rotating ones with three ads in each, two signs back to back)  It costs them less to just leave it up than to pay him to take it down.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mac the Knife on November 26, 2010, 08:08:55 am
I drive in northern Illinois for a living and I have noticed a large increase of cars in yards with FOR SALE signs. Some have been sitting there for 6 months or more.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on November 26, 2010, 10:35:28 pm

I'm expecting the wave of hobby cars for sale to hit here in the spring.  Seems the car shows were smaller this year (A&W parking lot type of shows).

I've noticed several lots that have approval for developments that are for sale again.  For sale, not even "build to suit".

On the bus advertising thing, I actually counted for a few days.  Empty ad slots are running at about 40% on average inside each bus.  The most prevalent form of ad is for wireless phone service followed closely by various Government stuff.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on November 26, 2010, 11:35:56 pm

I'm expecting the wave of hobby cars for sale to hit here in the spring.  Seems the car shows were smaller this year (A&W parking lot type of shows).


I'm waiting for the stupid collectors to fall out of love with '65 Porsche 356C coupes, '72 BMW 2002 Tii's, 'and 75 Porsche 914 2.0's.  They are such fun to drive, practical, straightforward to maintain and economical to operate that it is a shame their charms are wasted on the idle rich. They all deserve a better life than the show circuit. They should be doing banzai runs on Idaho mountain roads with me stirring the controls.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on December 04, 2010, 06:48:18 pm
Poverty,
Crime,
Power

via lewrockwell.com

     The Establishment Is in Despair (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north916.html) by Gary North

     WikiLeaks Exposes Israeli Mafia (http://www.lewrockwell.com/raimondo/raimondo102.html) by Justin Raimondo

     The Class-Domination Theory of Power (http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/domhoff1.1.1.html) by G. William Domhoff

Or Money Makes the World Go 'Round.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on December 08, 2010, 08:15:24 am
Some time before 0 dark thirty this morning I caught a snippet that in effect says any employee hired after January 1st will not receive the additional $1 per hour that is currently paid to Sunday workers in order to cut costs.  I don't have a link nor do I remember the source. 

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on December 12, 2010, 11:28:54 pm
When I worked at the large hospital as an RN/Paramedic before disability kicked me out to pasture, while I was there they had a formula of how much the hospital would match money that we put into a retirement account where the employee's put in a certain percent matched 75% by the hospital funds all ours from the first day it was deposited.  Now, after I've had to retire due to the disability, I've since learned that the hospital has stopped matching that money with employees.  All the employee gets is his/her own deposit and the interest it earns.  Since management is still blowing money like it was free water on all sorts of wasteful things just to make big wheels there look bood, OH, are nurses and everyone else ever mad.  They are all hotter than they have ever been!!

                                                         RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on December 13, 2010, 08:07:18 am
Illinois to remind people to pay sales tax on online purchases (http://www.sj-r.com/carousel/x1714277881/Illinois-to-remind-people-to-pay-sales-tax-on-online-purchases)
Quote
Many Illinois taxpayers are dodging state and local sales taxes by buying Christmas gifts online, but the state hopes to get them to eventually pay those taxes in 2011.

The state will offer a sales tax amnesty from Jan. 1 through Oct. 15. Under legislation passed last year and signed by Gov. Pat Quinn, people who bought goods online, through the mail or over the phone and didn’t pay sales tax on them between June 20, 2004 and the end of 2010 can pay what they owe without penalty during that period.

Uhm...don't think so. A retroactive "tax". What's next for the revenue raisers? DL fees up ($20 increase), Property Taxes up (15% proposed for the area we live in), at retailer tax up (1% - 5% depending where you live), car registration (up $36 dollars last year), school supply "fee" (can range in your district - here about $610), etc.

What's next? Retroactive breathing fee?

This is related to the "GD" title in that the States are just as bankrupt as the Fed, only the States don't have a system set up to print their own money at the same rate.


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on December 13, 2010, 09:53:00 am
I wonder if this headline at least provides a "wake up" moment for those who do not understand the fragility of the U.S. economic system.

US Stocks Open Higher After China Chooses Not To Raise Rates  (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101213-707105.html)

Quote
-U.S. stocks opened higher Monday morning after China elected not to raise interest rates despite a pick-up in inflation last month.

China "elected" not to raise interest rates so "we" are safe for another day.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on December 13, 2010, 10:03:33 am
I wonder if this headline at least provides a "wake up" moment for those who do not understand the fragility of the U.S. economic system.

US Stocks Open Higher After China Chooses Not To Raise Rates  (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101213-707105.html)

Quote
-U.S. stocks opened higher Monday morning after China elected not to raise interest rates despite a pick-up in inflation last month.

China "elected" not to raise interest rates so "we" are safe for another day.


That's emblematic of the problem with our financial system -- it's focused on the short term. If we don't
crash and burn today, then life is good.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on January 15, 2011, 06:34:36 am
Was over on another forum and this response by a truck farmer just hit me. Its anecdotal. The question is: Is this a leading indicator for the future?

Quote
I have a medium-sized market 12 miles from the farm, and a large market 90 miles from the farm, but I'm just plain old tired of the huge expense of maintaining a truck large enough to take a reasonable amount of produce to market. The gasoline is too expensive. The insurance is too expensive. The licensing fees are too expensive. The maintenance is too expensive. The loss of freedom and privacy associated with having a driver license and vehicle registration is too expensive. They eat me up and consume any meager profit I might aspire too.

So this year I intend to take vegetables only to the small market two blocks from my farm, and the world outside my village can either come to me, or they can fend for themselves.

ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on January 15, 2011, 03:41:00 pm
Nice. About time, I'd say.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on January 17, 2011, 05:32:55 am
Was over on another forum and this response by a truck farmer just hit me. Its anecdotal. The question is: Is this a leading indicator for the future?

Quote
I have a medium-sized market 12 miles from the farm, and a large market 90 miles from the farm, but I'm just plain old tired of the huge expense of maintaining a truck large enough to take a reasonable amount of produce to market. The gasoline is too expensive. The insurance is too expensive. The licensing fees are too expensive. The maintenance is too expensive. The loss of freedom and privacy associated with having a driver license and vehicle registration is too expensive. They eat me up and consume any meager profit I might aspire too.

So this year I intend to take vegetables only to the small market two blocks from my farm, and the world outside my village can either come to me, or they can fend for themselves.

ND

My dad owns a small trucking business.  He hauls pigs and every year his profit continues to shrink.  He hired a couple more drivers to bring in more money but all of the expenses (gas, vehicle titles, payroll taxes, unemployment 'benefits' fees, etc etc etc) quickly made it unprofitable.  He had to scale back his business because the government was eating him alive.  He's been a small business man his entire life and it drives him crazy how expensive/difficult it is to make a decent living.  Over the past couple of months he has picked up a few smaller routes (farm to market) and is seriously considering dropping some of his long-haul routes.  He is also starting to get 'paid' in means other than cash.  Pork, oil changes, truck washouts, are all being traded at this small local level.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 17, 2011, 08:49:07 am
Price of a hog (260 - 300#)  processed is going up from $290 to $340 - if your butcher can find one. (explanation? Increase in grain/fuel/transport prices).

Sweet grain (goat food for milkers) - 40# bag $5.97 jumped in 45 days to $8.99 (we had cull plans for the less hardy milkers - that has been expanded).

Hay - per bale from $4.50 to $5.25  (gas/fertilizer/bale ties increase).

On the good side, a quart of Goldenrod Honey still barters for 5# meat sticks.

For those of you who are interested, check out the archives of "sales fliers" for the box stores from last year. I generally see a 4.5% increase in the cost of staples and 8% in the "luxury" food items.

Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/article/246895-why-are-commodity-prices-rising-let-me-count-the-ways) has an interesting article this morning on commodity prices:

Quote
Food inflation has already hit double digits in China, India and Brazil. It's not hard to see why when you look at how some of the major soft commodities have performed over the last 12 months:

    * Corn: + 69%
    * Wheat: + 47%
    * Soy Beans: + 44%
    * Sugar: + 15%
    * Coffee: + 65%
    * Cotton: + 105%

It is also interesting to consider the flooding in Australia and the effect this can have on Coal Reserves/Prices (http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8416065) around the world. While you can use traditional "power type coal" for producing Steel, you cannot use the "Steel variety" for powering the "free" electric type (I know it's not free, but the Volt drivers might be in for a bit of a surprise.


Quote
The critical market factors that could propel coal prices higher include: a currently higher growth rate in many Asian economies compared to 2008 resulting in higher demand for thermal and coking coal, rising raw steel production as steel plants have worked off stockpiles and a tighter coking coal market in 2010 which was supportive of prices higher than the marginal cost of producing coal.

"In the global thermal coal market, impacts from the Australian floods are exacerbated by supply disruptions in Colombia, Venezuela and South Africa. In the Pacific basin, thermal coal spot prices have already risen sharply to $140/mt [FOB] at the port of Newcastle and could approach or exceed the $197/mt [FOB] experienced in 2008," said Wood Mackenzie.

According to Platts' thermal coal assessments last Friday, FOB prices at the Australian port of Newcastle were at $133/mt, after jumping to $145/mt the previous week, and stood at $150/mt FOB for Gladstone thermal coal.


I forget who suggested "Last Light" by Alex Scarrow, but it was an interesting theory/read.

While I know "the Economy is Improving" - just wondering "seatbelts anyone"?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: coloradohermit on January 17, 2011, 11:34:57 am
Hay - per bale from $4.50 to $5.25  (gas/fertilizer/bale ties increase).
We have a nice little deer herd in our front yard and I buy the occaisional bale of alfalfa for them. 2 weeks ago, they wanted $9.65! When we had livestock if was $5. I can't even imagine what it would cost if we still raised our own meat.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 17, 2011, 12:09:08 pm
Ouch! Good news is the "hardy" goat we've bred up do acceptable on grass hay. We have considered a Merkor or Ibex addition to bring the stock to "more hardy" (i.e. need little to no supplementation).

-----------
Illinois is ready now to steal from the Middle Class to support the pensioned/and/or/poor while capping spending to 2% per annum.

66% Income Tax Increase in Illinois (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/01/12/ill-lawmakers-pass-percent-income-tax-increase/?test=latestnews)

I guess Illinois should be thankful. The original "modest proposal" was for 75%.




Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on January 17, 2011, 12:56:50 pm
Wonder how many people we'll see voting with their feet to get out of Illinois?  My guess is people will be leaving Kalifornia and Illinios in droves as fast as they can. Either that or just not pay more tax or both.

                                                                 RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 17, 2011, 03:11:14 pm
Wonder how many people we'll see voting with their feet to get out of Illinois?  My guess is people will be leaving Kalifornia and Illinios in droves as fast as they can. Either that or just not pay more tax or both.                                                                  RN

That's a great idea! In Illinois 1 in 8 houses in foreclosure. 1 in 4 underwater. So - leave the state and screw your credit or stay in the state and bend over. Nice choice  :angry:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on January 17, 2011, 11:05:21 pm
Mutti, I didn't mean to hit a nerve with you which apparently I did. Hope you are not one of those trapped in Illinios. I have friends up there who I truly feel sorry for. You too if you are up there.  I do hope that a bit of time and reconsideration will help you to see that I mean't nothing bad for you or anyone else here.  Does this sound reasonable and is this fair?  Please reply.

                                    Respectfully, RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 18, 2011, 08:22:22 am
RN - That was just a general rant and not directed at anyone.

And yes - I started making people aware here in Illinois last year when 2505 was introduced. Everyone south of Springfield (minus East St. Louis) screamed, fought and pointed out the insanity. As usual, Crook Cook county did what they wanted.

Note to self - use the /Sarc vs Angry so that I don't appear to be attacking someone in the future - sorry (digs toe in clay and looks sheepish).  ^_^

mutti

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on January 18, 2011, 09:32:27 pm
Thanks much MUTTI, we are fine. 


         Gratefully & Respectfully,  RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Wyomiles on January 21, 2011, 09:52:18 am
Just caught this on MSN. Looks like it is all about to go!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=1
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on January 21, 2011, 10:10:57 am
Just another leash to tie the States closer to the Fed...........Damn.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on January 22, 2011, 11:35:41 pm
Just caught this on MSN. Looks like it is all about to go!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=1

Let the States go bankrupt???? If that is allowed, it will screw-over all of the States
trying to sell bonds, as the bond market will fear the worse, and dump existing bonds
at fire sale prices. Eventually it would stabilize, but this could cause the disaster they
are trying to avoid.

Yeeeesh.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on January 23, 2011, 01:10:27 am
Just caught this on MSN. Looks like it is all about to go!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=1

Let the States go bankrupt???? If that is allowed, it will screw-over all of the States
trying to sell bonds, as the bond market will fear the worse, and dump existing bonds
at fire sale prices. Eventually it would stabilize, but this could cause the disaster they
are trying to avoid.

Yeeeesh.

Bear


In this case, we can only pray that it takes them 3 years to get the measure approved.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 24, 2011, 10:16:36 am
Link is pop up /photo intensive and this is just a "suggestion" at this point:

Now they want to ration petrol:  MPs back token scheme as prices are set to hit £8 a gallon by the summer (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1350021/Petrol-rationing-proposed-MPs-prices-set-hit-8-gallon-summer.html#ixzz1ByBinT8c)

Quote
    * Households would be given tokens for fuel in home and cars
    * Surplus units could be sold and extra tokens bought

Scariest quote?

Quote
'People will be allowed...

I've lived in London and Upper Heyford. The mass transportation system worked acceptably unless there was a strike. However rural folks (transportation and heating) are really going to be hit by this if it happens.

mutti
(ND provided the link)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on January 24, 2011, 08:27:12 pm
Just caught this on MSN. Looks like it is all about to go!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=1

Let the States go bankrupt???? If that is allowed, it will screw-over all of the States
trying to sell bonds, as the bond market will fear the worse, and dump existing bonds
at fire sale prices. Eventually it would stabilize, but this could cause the disaster they
are trying to avoid.

Yeeeesh.

Bear


In this case, we can only pray that it takes them 3 years to get the measure approved.

I hope for no approval at all and let the bricks fall on those not prepared.  Oh, there have been so many applications for CCW permits here in Las Vegas that there will be a delay in processing.  here are 2 ways to read that............
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Wyomiles on February 18, 2011, 11:56:29 am
From Bloomberg news By Daniel Kruger and Liz Capo McCormick .Feb. 14 2011

"Barack Obama may lose the advantage of low borrowing costs as the U.S. Treasury Department says what it pays to service the national debt is poised to triple amid record budget deficits.

Interest expense will rise to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product by 2016, from 1.3 percent in 2010 with the government forecast to run cumulative deficits of more than $4 trillion through the end of 2015, according to page 23 of a 24-page presentation made to a 13-member committee of bond dealers and investors that meet quarterly with Treasury officials.

While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.

“It’s a slow train wreck coming and we all know it’s going to happen,” said Bret Barker, an interest-rate analyst at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., which manages about $115 billion in assets. “It’s just a question of whether we want to deal with it. There are huge structural changes that have to go on with this economy.”

The amount of marketable U.S. government debt outstanding has risen to $8.96 trillion from $5.8 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the Treasury Department. Debt-service costs will climb to 82 percent of the $757 billion shortfall projected for 2016 from about 12 percent in last year’s deficit, according to the budget projections."
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: jamie on February 18, 2011, 03:07:58 pm
And the parasites are fighting over a 100 billion dollar cut, when they are a hundred trillion in debt.  And the USD is almost there to losing world reserve currency status.  No worries, just raise the debt ceiling, raise taxes, keep the wars going, regulate and strangle the productive economy and hire more gubmint "workers".  Easy fix.

Talked to the food bank volunteer the other day, the increase from last year is remarkable.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: tex703 on February 22, 2011, 02:58:49 pm
Buy your food and other tangibles now before its to late.  And even if nothing happens in the next few months, or few years, at least you'll have a good stockpile of food stuff so you can spend your hard earned money someplace else.

 I read in the Wall Street Journal that the riots in Egypt were somewhat caused by high food prices.  It will happen here (already is) but on a slower curve.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on February 23, 2011, 05:26:06 am
Yes, Operation Stock Up is well under way for this family.

Over my lunch hour these past few weeks I've simply scanned the headlines on Drudge Report and everything I've seen is really scary.  It amazes me that still so many of my friends and coworkers simply give all of these events occasional thought and continue on their head-in-the-sand path.

I fear the fan is about to be smothered.  Soon.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: hangman on February 23, 2011, 03:01:56 pm
A student explains the 100 Million Dollar Budget Cut

 
   http://wimp.com/budgetcuts/ 

 

 

 {VERY well done!}

 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on February 24, 2011, 05:25:42 am
Wow.  That was awesome.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on February 24, 2011, 10:39:29 am
That's very well done.

Makes it clear just how feckless the whitehouse' efforts are
to trim the budget.

Now keep in mind, that only illustrates the annual budget and debt.
If you use honest accounting, the total debt is not $13 Trillion, but
North of $100 Trillion. This includes the money we should have set
aside for future entitlement funding, but didn't.

This means that the $100 Billion that Congress is wrestling over only
addresses 1/1000 of the total debt. It too, is feckless.

If the Federal Government were to balance the budget this year
(not going to happen), and were able to pay off $100 Billion each
year, it would still take 1,000 years to get to where we should be
right now.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on March 01, 2011, 10:30:25 am
Okay. Finally someone to blame besides the United States. Jeez-


Financial terrorism suspected in 2008 economic crash (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/28/financial-terrorism-suspected-in-08-economic-crash/)

Quote
Evidence outlined in a Pentagon contractor report suggests that financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations, contributed to the 2008 economic crash by covertly using vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.

The unclassified 2009 report “Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses” by financial analyst Kevin D. Freeman, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, states that “a three-phased attack was planned and is in the process against the United States economy.”

Reminds me of minions "It's not my fault because so-and-so did such-and-such...."

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on March 01, 2011, 10:37:55 am
Our local Blockbuster closed a few weeks back. DH stopped in one Saturday morning and they were selling everything. An employee told him that they just found out on Thursday the store would be closing. It was officially closed that Sunday. All the signage was gone a few days a later. It just makes me kinda sad...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 01, 2011, 01:19:22 pm
Blockbuster was killed by Netflix and streaming video.  Like tape rentals, their time had passed.  The depression may have sped up the process a bit, but they were doomed in any case.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 01, 2011, 03:31:47 pm
Okay. Finally someone to blame besides the United States. Jeez-


Financial terrorism suspected in 2008 economic crash (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/28/financial-terrorism-suspected-in-08-economic-crash/)

Quote
Evidence outlined in a Pentagon contractor report suggests that financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations, contributed to the 2008 economic crash by covertly using vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.

The unclassified 2009 report “Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses” by financial analyst Kevin D. Freeman, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, states that “a three-phased attack was planned and is in the process against the United States economy.”

I downloaded a copy from Scribd (http://www.scribd.com/doc/49755779/Economic-Warfare-Risks-and-Responses-by-Kevin-D-Freeman).  I haven't had time to study it in any detail, but a quick skim revealed nothing that I would dare to call "evidence."  Lots of conjecture, but not much if anything to support it.

But he got a nice check from the Pentagon for it.

I found a blogger called Dick Destiny that calls the report "A whoopee cushion moment (http://dickdestiny.com/blog1/2011/03/01/a-whoopie-cushion-moment-financial-terrorism-caused-the-great-recession/)."  As I said I haven't read it carefully, but I'm not sure it even rises to whoopee cushion in terms of entertainment value.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on March 01, 2011, 09:39:10 pm
Silver - Of course... But, it still makes me feel a little sad. I sometimes get sad when I see other businesses close, specially ones that have been around for a long time. Almost every time I see an old, abandoned gas station or barn or shack I somberly wonder about its history. Can't help it - it's just who I am :)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 03, 2011, 07:01:51 pm
I feel sad too.  I see a business that has failed and wonder why.

Sometimes it is a good thing - they got a better offer and took it.

But most of the time it is a bad thing - they were crushed by forces they didn't know existed, and did not understand.

It is very sad indeed.  And I may join them sooner rather than later.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: poto on March 03, 2011, 10:40:09 pm
I went to a local shopping mall a few weeks ago. A friend of mine was going, and seeing as this mall had a bass pro shop, I thought I'd tag along and check out the current ammo prices. It had been a few years since I had been to a mall.

I was somewhat surprised to see that about 80-90% of the stores in the mall were vacant... the mall was dead. They had even drained the water from all the fountains. I guesstimate that mall will probably close down completely within a year or 2. I don't see how they can afford to stay open with so few stores.

I asked around to friends and family, and it seems like some of the other local malls are fairing much the same. Some with about 3/4 vacant stores. Of course, it seems some of the businesses that used to inhabit the malls had moved to strip-malls and were still in business. Probably because the rent is much cheaper on a strip. I have no doubt though that more than a few of those stores didn't survive.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on March 05, 2011, 09:33:09 am
"Financial Terrorism" geezz......  Can't the bureaucrats come up with a better bit of smoke to obfuscate, and what is the mirrors going to be?  A bunch of "Wealthy conservative in a political financial cabal" somewhere...........

I have seen 3 different financial sources projecting the same things. 

This guy who I was refered to by a sucessful broker:   http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/PPSIM2AV/PR
This website:     http://www.shadowstats.com/
I can't find a source for the 3rd, damn. It outlines a set of statistics that when repeated in the right period of time is supposed to indicate a serious collapse.  just a couple of more instances away and 6 months to have them "tick" over.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on March 16, 2011, 12:26:38 pm
Food prices increase 3.9% in February, highest jump in 36 years (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/03/16/food-prices-increase-3-9-in-february-highest-jump-in-36-years/)
Quote
Food prices soared 3.9 percent last month, the biggest gain since November 1974. Most of that increase was due to a sharp rise in vegetable costs, which increased nearly 50 percent. That was the most in almost a year. Meat and dairy products also rose.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on March 22, 2011, 09:30:13 am
The landlord where we rent our offices recently sent around a notice.

It seems a growing number of people are living and sleeping in their offices.  We've noticed that there are quite a few cars that routinely spend the night in the parking lot.

This isn't a modern place with kitchens, showers, and exercise rooms.  It's an old mill building where they turn off the heat on nights and weekends.  Living here would be pretty rough, but I guess it beats the streets.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on March 22, 2011, 10:11:57 am
It seems a growing number of people are living and sleeping in their offices.  We've noticed that there are quite a few cars that routinely spend the night in the parking lot.

Now that you mention it, I have noticed quite a number of cars in the parking lot at my place of employment.  I get in at 0-dark thirty and have noticed the same cars in the same spot day after day.  It never dawned on me that people might be 'living' here...

My building does have a fitness room complete with showers, kitchenettes with vending machines, microwaves and hot-water dispensers...  Heck, you could live high on the hog here!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on May 04, 2011, 12:39:00 pm
Lawmakers told $2 trillion debt cap raise needed (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-usa-budget-limit-idUSTRE7434UG20110504)

Quote
The Treasury has told lawmakers a roughly $2 trillion increase in the legal limit on U.S. federal debt was needed to ensure the government can keep borrowing through the 2012 presidential election, sources with knowledge of the discussions said.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on May 05, 2011, 04:52:32 am
Lawmakers told $2 trillion debt cap raise needed (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-usa-budget-limit-idUSTRE7434UG20110504)

Quote
The Treasury has told lawmakers a roughly $2 trillion increase in the legal limit on U.S. federal debt was needed to ensure the government can keep borrowing through the 2012 presidential election, sources with knowledge of the discussions said.


There are at least 15 things in that sentence that make me choke on my own rage...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on May 05, 2011, 06:11:04 pm
Just off hand, if push comes to shove, and there isn't enough
money to cover both SS benefits and food stamps, do you think
they will get cut equally, or one program will get a preference (less cut)
than the other?

Ideas?

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on May 05, 2011, 07:15:07 pm
An interesting question.

I believe that the first to go will be the reduction of Social Security forcing Boomers who can work to work.

Apparently 1 in 3 seniors are economically insecure (http://egpnews.com/?p=25488) at this point in time while 1 in 7 (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/05/03/about-1-in-7-americans-receive-food-stamps/) Americans receive food stamps (state by state breakdown here (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703834804576301244003755956.html#articleTabs%3Dinteractive)). Numbers are not readily available for the NSIP program which provides food services/products/farmers market vouchers for the elderly who collect SSI, so I do not know if this is an overlap.

The proposed Budget for SSI = $761 Billion (an increase of 8%)
Food Stamps (Including WIC) - $372 Billion (an increase of 3%)


Interestingly enough if FY2012 *PDF Warning* (http://useconomy.about.com/library/fy2012budget.pdf) cut the following Discretionary expenditures, then both FS and SS could move toward "full funding" at current rates and support the increase "needed":

International Food Aid : $719.4 Billion
Overseas Contingency Budget: $126.5 Billion      (page 32 of 36 - i.e. no policy in place to spend, but just in case this money is being "set aside". This would still leave Defense fully funded.)
Disaster Costs : $2 Billion (no specific disaster again just in case)
TARP : $13 Billion (still paying out)
Low Income Tax Credit: $5 Billion

That still leaves $267.1 Billion to cull from the Budget to cover both programs. There are plenty of places to cut 10% (Alphabet Agencies).

There would be screaming (AARP and Starving children in the streets  :rolleyes:), but there will be anyhow unless increases are pushed through.

 :dontknow:








Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on May 05, 2011, 10:12:28 pm
My guess is that should promised & earned payments in some form from government not be forthcoming, there might be "some" who would get what was promised to them "one way or another." Some might even be considering "taking it out of the worthless hide" of some current or former office holder. I'm not planning on any of that as I'm physically disabled, but one never knows how someone might react when their back is to the wall. It has been done before for less. Just a little "thinking out loud."

                                               RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on May 05, 2011, 11:13:12 pm
Cut shmut ... Helicopter Ben has the answer. Nobody will lynch anybody over them turning the dollar to dust ... the talking heads will blame the Arabs, anarchists, the free market, silver horders or trombone players. They can easily print enough money to fully fund everything, so they will.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on May 06, 2011, 10:59:47 am
Sounds right Slideman, the printing press up there is going wide open all the time. 

                                           RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on May 06, 2011, 01:07:56 pm
My guess is that should promised & earned payments in some form from government not be forthcoming, there might be "some" who would get what was promised to them "one way or another." Some might even be considering "taking it out of the worthless hide" of some current or former office holder. I'm not planning on any of that as I'm physically disabled, but one never knows how someone might react when their back is to the wall. It has been done before for less. Just a little "thinking out loud."

                                               RN

There was an incident last year (in the SouthEast?) where some guy went to a county board of supervisor's meeting
and challenged them on what their plans had done to him and his family. When they didn't show any remorse over
what had happened, he took out his gun and took a couple of shots at the main guy, missing him from a difference
of about 10 feet (from the surveillance tape). A deputy snuck into the room and shot the guy.

Watching the tape and hearing the back story made me think it was suicide-by-cop. It was odd. It was clear that the
shooter wanted the board to take him seriously, and to at least be sorry for what they did, and be a little afraid, but
the guy did not make any effort to actually hit his targets.

A compounded tragedy.

Since the shooter is written off as a 'nut case', nothing is likely to change except better security for the council chambers.

When I look into my murky crystal ball, what I see happening is more violence against local public officials, since
local government is where the 'rubber hits the road' for a lot of people. When the violence gets to the point where
it's a real concern, the my guess is that the local governments will suffer a paralysis action. They won't want to do
anything that will piss off someone enough to take a shot at them.

At the State and Federal levels where bureaucrats my feel more anonymous, and safer, we can expect the screws to be
tightened more as they run short of money. When there is more distance (figurative and literal) between the governed
and the those that govern, it's easier for the governors to not feel directly responsible for the results of their actions,
and so may more easily do things that have a negative impact on people.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on May 06, 2011, 03:19:34 pm
Thanks, Bear. You've got it about right I'd expect. Hope things are working out well with your new diggs.

                             Best Wishes, RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on May 10, 2011, 01:13:48 pm
Dear Ayn,

So is this what America is turning into?

A place where tens of millions of the unemployed and
the working poor crawl over to Wal-Mart and the dollar
store every month to use the food stamp debit cards
provided to them by JP Morgan?

It turns out that JP Morgan also provides child support
debit cards in 15 U.S. states and they also provide
unemployment insurance benefit debit cards in seven
states.

Apparently states have found that they can save millions of
dollars by "outsourcing" the provision of these benefits
to big financial firms like JP Morgan.

So what happens if you have a problem with your food stamp
debit card?

Well, you call up a JP Morgan service center. When you do
this, there is a very good chance that you are going to
be helped by a JP Morgan call center employee in India.
...
[/list]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/247234-jp-morgan-profits-from-food-stamp-processing-business
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on May 14, 2011, 08:23:03 pm
Geithner Predicts Double-Dip if Congress Fails to Lift Debt Ceiling  (http://nationaljournal.com/economy/geithner-predicts-double-dip-if-congress-fails-to-lift-debt-ceiling-20110514)

Quote
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said if Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling and the U.S. defaults on its obligations “this abrupt contraction would likely push us into a double dip recession,” painting the most explicitly dire prediction to date of the consequences of inaction.

In a heavily-anticipated response to Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., who asked Geithner to document the economic and fiscal impacts of failing to lift the statutory debt limit, the Treasury secretary detailed a chain reaction that would cripple the economy, costing jobs and income.

Is there a "Threat Level" sign for .gov terrorist action? I propose:

1. Hand Rubbing (in anticipation of spending more)
2. Hand Wringing (in anticipation of someone saying "no" to more spending)
3. Throwing up Hands (as in a "Touchdown" when the public is scared into wanting more money spent)

# 3 alert.....................


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on May 14, 2011, 08:43:38 pm
I went to the 4:00 PM, super-cheapo show at the theater to see Thor.  The parking lot was PACKED.  I've been a cheapass going to these shows for years, and I don't recall the lot being so crowded.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on May 15, 2011, 08:38:11 pm
I went to the 4:00 PM, super-cheapo show at the theater to see Thor.  The parking lot was PACKED.  I've been a cheapass going to these shows for years, and I don't recall the lot being so crowded.

I usually wait 'til it comes out on Youtube....
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on May 16, 2011, 06:47:07 am
Just off hand, if push comes to shove, and there isn't enough
money to cover both SS benefits and food stamps, do you think
they will get cut equally, or one program will get a preference (less cut)
than the other?

That's an easy one, as we are already in that predicament.

SS taxes no longer cover benefits, and the "trust fund" was spent as soon as it was sent, so now they have to take money from "general revenues" to pay SS benefits.  Food stamps were always taken from general revenues.

In March, the federal government took in $128 billion.  It spent $1,053 billion. (http://www.mygovcost.org/2011/04/04/u-s-government-spends-more-than-eight-times-monthly-revenues/)

The difference was made up by printing more money.  The details are slightly more complicated, as paper and ink are now too expensive to produce such massive quantities of scrip.  Instead, the Federal Reserve creates computer entries showing the creation of the required billions of new FRNs.  They turn the newly created digital bits to Goldman Sachs, who uses them to buy Treasuries, front-running just a little bit to make a tidy profit in the process.  In the end the computer bits representing FRNS created by the fed are swapped for computer bits representing IOUs by the Treasury.

So no one has to decide, or be held accountable, for whether SS or food stamps gets the cut. Both do, but no one knows just how much,  or when.  Goldman, the military-industrial complex, and government contractors get first access to the newly created money, so they benefit.  All the rest of us lose, but slowly and in hard to discern ways.  Over time, the effects are clear, but you can't point to today's gasoline price, food bill, or precious metal price and link it to the wild spending that went on in March, or April, or January, or 2010, or 2001. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Junker on May 16, 2011, 09:57:05 am
Well done!


Silver stays right on track. 

There are basics, "fundamental basics" so  to emphasize,
that apply and they need to be followed each and every time.

It's not magic and it's not chaotic.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 03, 2011, 09:02:16 am
Out Of Nowhere, The NFIB Just Sent Out This Warning: "Job Creation On Main Street Has Collapsed"
 (http://www.businessinsider.com/nfib-job-creation-on-main-street-has-collapsed-2011-6#ixzz1ODkrVWWm)

“After solid job gains early in the year, progress has slowed to a trickle. The two NFIB indicators—job openings and hiring plans—that predict the unemployment rate both fell, suggesting that the rate itself will rise.

“May’s job numbers will disappoint; meaningful job creation on Main Street has collapsed.

Must be the new way to say "Unexpected".....

Here is something that is also concerning: Mullen Says Pay, Benefit Cuts 'On the Table'
 (http://www.military.com/news/article/mullen-says-pay-benefit-cuts-on-the-table.html?ESRC=sm_todayinmil.nl)
Quote
"Two of the big places the money is, is in pay and benefits," Mullen told defense reporters at a June 2 breakfast meeting in Washington. "And so when I say all things are on the table, all things are on the table."

What about Defense contractors taking the hit once in blue moon. That's right, I forgot, they don't have to since many of them are former Administration officials...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 03, 2011, 08:50:21 pm
It is now reported that 1/2 of the 54K jobs added last month were during the McDonalds "one day hiring spree" - Half of Last Month's New Jobs Came from a Single Employer — McDonald's (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/half-last-months-jobs-came-single-employer-mcdonalds_573220.html)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on June 03, 2011, 10:33:44 pm
The government is cracking down on unmowed lawns, but can't afford to mow its own lawns. Nuff said. Need proof? Look around the cities some time.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on June 05, 2011, 12:14:06 am
PKL,

Of course. It COSTS them money to cut their own lawns, but they can FINE you
money for not cutting yours. It's not about the lawn, it's about the money.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on June 05, 2011, 01:12:27 am
Well in any event, the long grass and weeds on the government lawns is a sign that the beast is dying............
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on June 05, 2011, 08:45:01 am
Well in any event, the long grass and weeds on the government lawns is a sign that the beast is dying............

(http://www.getyourhandsdirty.net/publicsquare/Smileys/classic/brave.gif)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 09, 2011, 12:13:33 pm
If home prices fall another 10 to 25%, that "wouldn't surprise me at all," Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider today. (http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-fall-in-home-prices-wouldnt-surprise-me-at-all-2011-6#ixzz1OneY1wYu)

And he really didn't even blink very much....
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on June 09, 2011, 03:25:33 pm
19 out of the 20 cities ranked by Case-Shiller continue to show year-over-year price declines. Only Washington D.C. is an exception. (http://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-case-shiller-2011-6)

Housing prices are holding up just fine in Mordor - for now.  Everywhere else is in the tank.

Prices are falling about 1% a month - which is about as fast as they can fall.  People just pull their house off the market rather than take a bigger haircut.

This really was the mother of all housing bubbles.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on June 09, 2011, 11:44:46 pm
19 out of the 20 cities ranked by Case-Shiller continue to show year-over-year price declines. Only Washington D.C. is an exception. (http://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-case-shiller-2011-6)

Housing prices are holding up just fine in Mordor - for now.  Everywhere else is in the tank.

The entire empire is in the tank. Those who haven't lost their jobs have taken wage cuts and furloughs. The exceptions (mostly eunuchs) all live in and around the forbidden city (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbidden_City).  It is widely known that government jobs significantly outpay private sector now. 

A little job insecurity, humility and salary reduction might stave off the guillotine, but who knows?  Right now there's a line to get on the government payroll. Once the doors slam shut and the masses on the outside get hungry, things could get ugly for those who thought they won the sack job and secure future.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on June 17, 2011, 11:15:52 am
Wells Fargo Cuts 1,000 Jobs in Reverse Mortgages Operation (http://www2.wspa.com/news/2011/jun/17/wells-fargo-cuts-1000-jobs-reverse-mortgages-opera-ar-1989499/)
Quote
The company stated that the decision was made based on unpredictable home values along with the restrictions associated with reverse mortgages.

Why not just say "The company stated that the decision was made based on the inability to ensure monetary profit."?

When the sharks stop circling, does that mean the end is near?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression (Let's give Helo-Ben a Clue)
Post by: mutti on June 22, 2011, 04:26:23 pm
Bernanke Admits He’s Clueless On Economy’s Soft Patch (http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/06/22/bernanke-admits-hes-clueless-on-economys-soft-patch/)

Quote
Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery.

1. Corrupt Politicians and their inability to curb spending.
2. Entry into endless non-war-police-actions-non-hostile actions for decades.
3. Lending money to individuals through Freddie and Fannie that those individuals couldn't afford.
4. An "endless war on drugs" which does nothing but cause new legislation while driving up the medical cost/crime numbers/LEO enforcement ...

...what else am I missing - Let's give Helo-Ben a clue)

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression (Let's give Helo-Ben a Clue)
Post by: jamie on June 22, 2011, 07:42:22 pm
Bernanke Admits He’s Clueless On Economy’s Soft Patch (http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/06/22/bernanke-admits-hes-clueless-on-economys-soft-patch/)

Quote
Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery.

1. Corrupt Politicians and their inability to curb spending.
2. Entry into endless non-war-police-actions-non-hostile actions for decades.
3. Lending money to individuals through Freddie and Fannie that those individuals couldn't afford.
4. An "endless war on drugs" which does nothing but cause new legislation while driving up the medical cost/crime numbers/LEO enforcement ...

...what else am I missing - Let's give Helo-Ben a clue)



5. vast and ever growing bureaucracies that produce nothing of value

6. govt ineptitude across the board

7. gubermint attempts to centrally plan and control the economy

8. mindless stupidity of bureaucracy in general

9. Control freaks and psychopaths are drawn to gubermint, they in turn hire other control freaks and psychopaths or just the run of the mill mindless drone that will do the bidding of the aforementioned until there is a psychopathic gubermint.

10. Politicians have never had their own business, ran a business  or even had a real job outside of gubermint.

11. The corruption inherent in government itself, so situations like being unable to account for billions of dollars lost due to waste, fraud and abuse are so common as to be unremarkable.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression (Let's give Helo-Ben a Clue)
Post by: Mountain Prepper on June 22, 2011, 09:35:50 pm

3. Lending money to individuals through Freddie and Fannie that those individuals couldn't afford.


The accumulation of debt was the idea, like a huge ponzi scheme the fact that the standards were lowered was a function of the plan.

When the tea party and Hannity republicans try and blame this on the “poor and irresponsible” just makes me mad, the bank predators spike the punch and the political whores and oligarchy mouthpieces try and blame the kids at the party for drinking it... do they share responsibility yes, is it the “poor’s” fault I think not.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on June 23, 2011, 12:47:27 am
Mountain Prepper,

Poor doesn't mean stupid, or at least it shouldn't.

Yet your description seems apt.

"Kids" not adults drank the punch........

Quote
is it the “poor’s” fault I think not.

Who signed those mortgages?................I didn't. even though my ex was hounding me for a house.

I wasn't about to live on mac n' cheese and chicken hotdogs for 30 years merely because some realtor ran the numbers and supposedly I could afford her "great Value".

She gave us a number that "you can afford" based on my "gross pay", which I then ran against my "net pay"..............it's not rocket science......

No safety buffer told me that I couldn't afford that house..............period!

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: jamie on June 23, 2011, 03:56:49 am
Mountain Prepper,

Poor doesn't mean stupid, or at least it shouldn't.

Yet your description seems apt.

"Kids" not adults drank the punch........

Quote
is it the “poor’s” fault I think not.

Who signed those mortgages?................I didn't. even though my ex was hounding me for a house.

I wasn't about to live on mac n' cheese and chicken hotdogs for 30 years merely because some realtor ran the numbers and supposedly I could afford her "great Value".

She gave us a number that "you can afford" based on my "gross pay", which I then ran against my "net pay"..............it's not rocket science......

No safety buffer told me that I couldn't afford that house..............period!




Poor shouldn't mean stupid, even if it does.  If you want to assign blame I'm going with Zoot.  I don't have any sympathy for people who bought more house than they could afford. If you aren't a gubermint "worker" you have to figure that things might go south.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on June 23, 2011, 07:01:42 am
Mountain Prepper,

Poor doesn't mean stupid, or at least it shouldn't.

Yet your description seems apt.

"Kids" not adults drank the punch........

Quote
is it the “poor’s” fault I think not.

Who signed those mortgages?................I didn't. even though my ex was hounding me for a house.

I wasn't about to live on mac n' cheese and chicken hotdogs for 30 years merely because some realtor ran the numbers and supposedly I could afford her "great Value".

She gave us a number that "you can afford" based on my "gross pay", which I then ran against my "net pay"..............it's not rocket science......

No safety buffer told me that I couldn't afford that house..............period!




Poor shouldn't mean stupid, even if it does.  If you want to assign blame I'm going with Zoot.  I don't have any sympathy for people who bought more house than they could afford. If you aren't a gubermint "worker" you have to figure that things might go south.

I am not asking any of you to have any sympathy - I could care less about the “poor” and the bad choices (more accurately ignorant choices).

I am not about to blame the part of the crisis the “republicants” want to pin on the “poor” on the intended target.

Yes they are stupid or more accurately ignorant and easily manipulated, the trend was to say a house was a “sure thing” to dangle a carrot, the predatory banks on the other hand only wanted large amounts of debt to market in a “less than honest way” the plan was to dump the paperwork before the debt went sour.

Did you guys not catch how this was done and how the debt products were shuffled?

Please you guys are not that dense and political correctness is not needed here - there are examples of some high IQ folks who may be “poor” but let’s be real the vast majority are at best pathetically ignorant and proud of it - perfect slaves and the oligarchy knows this.

You are correct “poor" shouldn't mean stupid but it is a good indication of very high probability. I think you are mistaken in that you are assigning some responsible, reasonable and rational thinking to what are at best labeled “sheeple” I don’t blame the sheep for the manipulation of the sheepherder and I don’t have to have any sympathy for the fleeced sheep. I simply am not going to blame the manipulated for the plans of the oligarchy they will pay the price, the problem is that the oligarchy intended for US - all of us - to pay along with the manipulated.

Planned from the beginning.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: ZooT_aLLures on June 23, 2011, 04:34:20 pm
Quote
Did you guys not catch how this was done and how the debt products were shuffled?

Yeah, I read all about it............yet it still doesn't provide an excuse for the folks that signed the papers in the first place, nor does it provide an excuse for the folks that bought the bundles, thinking they were going to turn a quick profit on them.

I haven't seen many folks go to prison, and not many lynchings come out of it either............and that says something about the people of this country..............they don't care.............
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on June 23, 2011, 08:06:26 pm
Quote
Did you guys not catch how this was done and how the debt products were shuffled?

Yeah, I read all about it............yet it still doesn't provide an excuse for the folks that signed the papers in the first place, nor does it provide an excuse for the folks that bought the bundles, thinking they were going to turn a quick profit on them.

I haven't seen many folks go to prison, and not many lynchings come out of it either............and that says something about the people of this country..............they don't care.............

Sad, this country loves ignorance, parasites, and fraud - and they wonder why it is sinking.

Like I said I was not making an excuse just pointing out that manipulation is easier than you think, that the plan was set long ago and that debt was the key to a few profiting greatly. That they are not on a rail tarred and feathered just proves that what is coming is going to be awful.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: iloilo on June 23, 2011, 09:09:48 pm

ZooT,
Thank you.  I don't think people care about what is happening these days because they generally remain totally ignorant of the reality of the circumstances. 
They have been told all along that this is some force majeur beyond the control of mere mortal man.
Some still labor under the illusion of "I feel your pain" and that we are all suffering together. 

Meanwhile, of course, the banksters, burglars, and bureaucrats are hiding in their Potomac Palaces, sipping their sherry, protected by their trained Orcs.
 
Frightened but feudal to the end, they will see a new country rise from their destruction, far better and more rational then even our Founders dreamed (with the exception of Jefferson and Henry, whom I think both saw the possibilities before us).

All of this present silliness is merely the thrashing about of demented kings and princes.  They are having temper tantrums, thinking that grabbing another golden chalice will save them from the yawning chasm opening beneath their Palaces on the Potomac.  It is a chasm they have created, and which will destroy them.

We know that the Golden Chalice is individual freedom.

We will be watching, at peace and living simply, each creating our own, individual Golden Chalice..
ff
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on July 01, 2011, 11:05:12 am
More vacancies in our 10-year-old subdivision (nice, new homes to my way of thinking).  Across the street the renters noticed online that their landlord was approaching foreclosure and moved out (back to So. Calif!!!).  I contacted the realtor  with a maintenance offer while my little mower could still get the lawn back down, but they did not get back to me.

Yesterday Mrs. Sailor and I hacked down their foot-and-a-half tall weeds. I used a semi-commercial string trimmer while she used pruning shears and weed killer on the walkways and parking areas. Today I'm going to rake up the weed straw and wheelbarrow it into our back yard for mulch.  It could be selfish motivation to keep the neighborhood from looking awful, but I think we were actually inspired just cuz it was a job that was screaming to be done and it was obvious nobody else would do it.

We will be letting it dry out this summer and we won't be dealing with the much larger back yard that is a complete runaway jungle.

Next door, the renters just finished moving out and the lawn sprouted a FOR SALE sign.  I began and will finish this morning, adjusting our sprinklers to water their lawn.  We have already begun mowing it when we mow ours.  It looks pretty goofy to have your lawn end abruptly at the property line with tall weeds starting exactly where the surveyors would plant their stakes.  While we could think of it as extra work, we view it more as an extension of our front yard and aesthetics of our home.

If more people think about their neighborhood, vicinity and take a broader view, their neighborhoods will not get so seedy as we transition from easy money to hard.  Houses rent and sell a whole lot better if they aren't demanding hundreds of hours of weed removal, soil reconstruction, sprinkler restoration and sod laying. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on July 01, 2011, 01:57:44 pm
More vacancies in our 10-year-old subdivision (nice, new homes to my way of thinking).  Across the street the renters noticed online that their landlord was approaching foreclosure and moved out (back to So. Calif!!!).  I contacted the realtor  with a maintenance offer while my little mower could still get the lawn back down, but they did not get back to me.

Yesterday Mrs. Sailor and I hacked down their foot-and-a-half tall weeds. I used a semi-commercial string trimmer while she used pruning shears and weed killer on the walkways and parking areas. Today I'm going to rake up the weed straw and wheelbarrow it into our back yard for mulch.  It could be selfish motivation to keep the neighborhood from looking awful, but I think we were actually inspired just cuz it was a job that was screaming to be done and it was obvious nobody else would do it.

We will be letting it dry out this summer and we won't be dealing with the much larger back yard that is a complete runaway jungle.

Next door, the renters just finished moving out and the lawn sprouted a FOR SALE sign.  I began and will finish this morning, adjusting our sprinklers to water their lawn.  We have already begun mowing it when we mow ours.  It looks pretty goofy to have your lawn end abruptly at the property line with tall weeds starting exactly where the surveyors would plant their stakes.  While we could think of it as extra work, we view it more as an extension of our front yard and aesthetics of our home.

If more people think about their neighborhood, vicinity and take a broader view, their neighborhoods will not get so seedy as we transition from easy money to hard.  Houses rent and sell a whole lot better if they aren't demanding hundreds of hours of weed removal, soil reconstruction, sprinkler restoration and sod laying. 

A hard question to deal with our block is now about 30% foreclosed and for sale. Water cost too much to just start helping the two houses next door that are vacant, we are letting them die (desert) only green now is the weeds.

The neighborhood is looking less and less lived-in, this is going to be bad...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on July 01, 2011, 02:21:24 pm
It makes quite a difference that my sprinklers run on a separate irrigation circuit.

We pay an annual fee ($85 this year) to get as much water as we want or feel we need to irrigate our yard. This is a century old system that has evolved from strictly gravity-feed into pressurized, piped feeds to the lots that make up the old farm fields. This year is a HUGE water year with excess having cast a fear of flooding over the idiots people who built or bought homes down low near the river that dominates this valley.  The upshot is I CAN use as much as I want to irrigate mine and the neighbors and this year that consumption is completely guilt free.

In the case of the across-the-street house, I'll keep it trimmed but let it dry out as nature takes its course. Next door on "our side" of their concrete drive I'll keep it watered and mowed.  On the other side I'll keep it trimmed but let it dry out. Grass is resilient enough to go dormant in the summer and come back green with the autumn rains.

I recommend doing the easy things that keep your neighborhood from looking completely abandoned and unkempt, but not letting it become a high-priority in your life.  If it hurts your eyes, fix it.  Don't wait for government to do it for you.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on July 01, 2011, 02:29:27 pm
Don't wait for government to do it for you.

I live in the west, drought now and we don’t have any government agencies of any type to go around and clip yards... barely enough money for the city to maintain the local in-city parks.

I noticed that they let them get quite weedy and long before they send a crew out.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on July 01, 2011, 03:04:08 pm
In the case of the across-the-street house, I'll keep it trimmed but let it dry out as nature takes its course. Next door on "our side" of their concrete drive I'll keep it watered and mowed.  On the other side I'll keep it trimmed but let it dry out. Grass is resilient enough to go dormant in the summer and come back green with the autumn rains.

The other tip is to cut those neighbor lawns REAL short.  I wtfpwn all my neighbors every summer simply by raising my cutting deck all the way up in June, and leaving it that way until mid September.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on July 08, 2011, 08:35:53 am
"If not now - when?" Rant from Rick Santelli - worth watching. (flashies, tickers, etc.)

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnbcs-rick-santelli-goes-bonkers-in-on-air-debate-over-debt-ceiling/

------
Now if "they" would just stop unexpectedly adjusting the numbers for jobs like a kid on Mountain Dew riding both sides of the see-saw - maybe more people would "get it".



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on July 08, 2011, 10:44:14 am
About water -- the subdivision I'm in are 1 acre parcels each with their own well.
The subdivision goes back to the late 1960s, and the water laws in effect allow
us up to 1,800 gallons a day (not to say you could actually draw that much).
The rules go back to the late 19th / early 20th century, and assume you have
saddle horses, chickens, and a truck garden.

Funny thing, looking at the neighborhood I think we're going back that way,
and that's a good thing.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on July 09, 2011, 07:39:03 am
LOL! A floor trader, what do you expect?  They are intense people by necessity.   Smoke and mirrors, a short fall will come out of operational funds and cover the payments the money is there they will just have to tighten the belt and go hungry at the end of the month.  I also saw that Warren Buffet clip they were talking about.  Warren Buffet is being partisan, not practical.  He has made bilions under the current set up, so of course he is going to be for perpetuate the problems.

The bills will be paid, it just means a bunch of pet projects will get hacked.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 08, 2011, 05:53:59 pm
Ahh one of the not so Czar Czars releases a pre-the-one informative pleading.............



What the world must do to boost growth (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3f31b92-da07-11e0-b199-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1XP7rbC3f)

Quote
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3f31b92-da07-11e0-b199-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1XP7Mh9NY

The three most important things that have to happen for the world economy to regain momentum are these. First, the U.S. should act to strengthen growth and employment. President Barack Obama will push for the very substantial package of public investments, tax incentives, and targeted jobs measures he put forward on Thursday night, combined with a carefully balanced mix of fiscal reforms designed to restore fiscal sustainability over the medium term.

Second, Europe needs to take more forceful action to generate confidence that it can and will resolve its crisis. This requires governments working together and alongside the European Central Bank in an unequivocal commitment to support Europe’s financial system and ensure governments can borrow at sustainable interest rates as they reform. Finally, China and other emerging economies need to continue to strengthen domestic demand and allow their exchange rates to adjust to market forces.

and somewhere in the meandering mess is a "Third" point, however as usual the transparency is neatly cloaked behind obscure words....

although this is an interesting line
Quote
None of the major central banks are out of ammunition.

I'm thinking all different kind of non-PC responses to that one     :rolleyes:


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: clarence on September 08, 2011, 10:33:45 pm
Quote
Quote
None of the major central banks are out of ammunition.

yeah, but once you've shot yourself in the head, who needs ammo?

clarence
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on September 09, 2011, 08:29:29 am
Quote
Quote
None of the major central banks are out of ammunition.

yeah, but once you've shot yourself in the head, who needs ammo?

clarence

I LOVED the simile ... until I thought about it a second time...
What they are doing is shooting their individual currencies in the head. The banksters doing the shooting will end up as the heads of the replacement one-world-currency... at least, that's their plan.  It's going to be nip and tuck to see if they pull it off.

Unfortunately, I think they have done their ground work well this time. Their one-world "educational" system and centralized media (aka: bread & circuses) have limited the number of people who will understand what hit 'em. Those of us in that minority will live in the black market occasionally getting rounded up for the amusement of the JBTs.

My thin hope is that our preparation and educational efforts will be adequate... or that  at least 10% of the population is smarter than they appear to be.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 20, 2011, 09:33:35 am
IMF sharply downgrades its outlook for US and European economies through next year  (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-downgrades-outlook-for-US-apf-1240337037.html?x=0)

Quote
The world economy has entered a "dangerous new phase," according to the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. As a result, the international lending organization has sharply downgraded its economic outlook for the United States and Europe through the end of next year.

The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow just 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012. That's down from its June forecast of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent next year.

To achieve even that still-low level of growth, the U.S. economy would need to expand at a much faster rate in the second half of the year than its 0.7 percent annual pace in the first six months.

Perhaps if the IMF accepted the fact that the US never recovered from the Depression in July '09 as stated, the approach would be different.

At least they didn't use the "unexpected" word. That is beginning to drive me nuts!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on September 20, 2011, 10:11:14 am
At least they didn't use the "unexpected" word. That is beginning to drive me nuts!

Heh heh... you too?  I'm beginning to wonder if these 'experts' actually expect anything these days.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 21, 2011, 08:17:32 am
Russian TV has a great interview with Peter Schiff, who gets openly mocked and laughed at on CNN and Bloomberg.  Here he gets a respectful hearing, and lays out the grim facts.  It's worth the 10 minutes, he talks about everything from the coming collapse of the dollar to the use of silver coins in the resulting black market to the end of the empire.

Last week Peter Schiff testified before the House Oversight Committee. Video here (couldn't find it on youtube) is 22 minutes worth watching. A bit annoying it is "patched" where questions posed to Mr. Schiff are not always known. 

 http://biggovernment.com/publius/2011/09/20/ceos-blockbuster-congressional-testimony-i-was-fined-for-hiring-too-many-people/

- Explains how he was "fined" for hiring too many people @ 4:42, Ordered to not hire anyone for 3 years (?), "Demand doesn't come from Government Spending. Inflation comes from Government Spending. Demand comes from Supply. You can't consume something that is not produced."

At about 10 minutes into this video, the debate over "how much should I pay in taxes" gets interesting.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on September 21, 2011, 09:55:55 am
Youtube's here:
9/13/2011 (1 of 2) Peter Schiff Testimony Before Congress On Jobs Committee (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLmD9TeUC54)
9/13/2011 (2 of 2) Peter Schiff Testimony Before Congress On Jobs Committee (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbQGpf3D_Q&feature=related)
Full two hour committee hearing:
"Take Two: The President's Proposal to Stimulate the Economy" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_21457&v=Dgpq-lthpPQ&src_vid=xZbQGpf3D_Q&feature=iv)

While I supported Peter Schiff's bid for the Senate, I'm glad he lost.  He does far more good for mankind laboring in the private sector than he could ever accomplish by joining a den of murderers and thieves. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on September 21, 2011, 10:13:08 am
He should be Ron Paul's treasury secretary.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on September 21, 2011, 10:29:54 am
A few candles flickering in these gale-force winds?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 21, 2011, 10:41:39 am
He should be Ron Paul's treasury secretary.

He was Ron Paul's Economic Advisor during the '08 Campaign. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Jebur27 on September 26, 2011, 05:12:31 pm
Peter Schiff always speaks truth. 

And, I must agree with Silver: He needs to stay away from gov't "work".
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: 0point on September 26, 2011, 08:25:14 pm

And, I must agree with Silver: He needs to stay away from gov't "work".


I agree too.  I read his books and used to watch his YouTube's regularly and listen to his weekly radio show.  Lost my respect for him when he decided he wanted to join the liars, thieves and murderers.

I now get better info from the Casey and Stansberry organizations anyway.

0
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: 0point on September 26, 2011, 08:57:25 pm

I don't know why you guys never mention the drunks,  perverts  and malignant narcissists in congress.


Maybe 'cuz if that's all they were, it wouldn't be anyone else's problem, or anyone else's business.

0
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Klapton Isgod on September 26, 2011, 09:12:45 pm
I don't know why you guys never mention the drunks,  perverts  and malignant narcissists in congress.  It's always about the thieves, liars, murderers, although I imagine quite a few combine categories.

Some of my best friends are drunks and perverts.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on September 26, 2011, 11:03:44 pm
I don't know why you guys never mention the drunks,  perverts  and malignant narcissists in congress.  It's always about the thieves, liars, murderers, although I imagine quite a few combine categories.

Some of my best friends are drunks and perverts.

Some of my friends are drunk perverts.

(I even have a friend that's a transgendered tsundere lolicon communist.)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 29, 2011, 08:34:42 am
Non-farm Payroll benchmark adjusted back to March 2011 by US Labor Department:

Nasdeq article : http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201109290900dowjonesdjonline000385&title=us-march-2011-total-nonfarm-payrolls-benchmark-revised-up-by-192k
Quote
The U.S. Labor Department Thursday made a preliminary revision to its annual benchmark of nonfarm payrolls, adjusting the March 2011 benchmark upward by 192,000.

This means employment levels may have been better than originally reported in the year through March 2011.

Of course they are.

At Shadowstats (http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/employment/payrolls/time-series#CES0700000001) however, one can see the comparison of Service Producing far outstrips the Goods Production jobs thus questioning the "great news"  of the Q2 GDP growth (http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LSAAQ03T6SSC01-1OFNLGQ8D4HG1CP3KP0D6F05P8) :

Quote
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, faster than estimated last month and helped by exports and spending on services.

The revised rise in gross domestic product compares with a 1 percent gain previously calculated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 1.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in the first three months of the year.

It seems that the more numbers that become revised by surprise, the better our Economy looks every day! Stock Market up - Jobs Numbers up - GDP revision up - as ND quotes:

Quote
"GREAT COMEBACK FOR STOCK MARKET" - Front page, Spokane Daily Chronicle, October 22nd, 1929

 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Jebur27 on October 13, 2011, 04:34:04 am
A guy asked me recently, "How can we grow the economy without inflation (fiat money)?"  Huh??? 

Just a sign of the times, I guess.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 13, 2011, 05:58:26 am
The answer is hard work, savings, and investment.  But of course the guy prefers printing money; it's so much easier than work. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: 0point on October 13, 2011, 11:12:42 pm
Do you mean when a kennedy gets drunk and kills someone that is ok?

Ummm, it would be the "and kills someone" that would make him a murderer and we would have a moral problem with.  The "gets drunk" part is no one else's business but his own.  Many people get drunk every day of the year without killing anyone, without harming anyone other than themselves.

Quote
Or gets caught drunk driving in the capitol and gets off by saying he is stressed,  that is okay?

Drunk driving is against the law, but it's not a crime -- no victim.  Many people are able to drive safely & well despite meeting the legal definition of DUI.  If there is a victim, is the victim damaged any more or any less if the driver was drunk, texting, otherwise distracted, or just plain incompetent?  The driver is responsible for the consequences regardless of the circumstances.

Mala prohibita versus mala in se.

Quote
Different moral compasses I guess.

Yup, I guess so.

0
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 17, 2011, 08:20:13 am
From NPR : http://www.npr.org/2011/10/16/141368215/wagering-on-food-prices-a-losing-bet-for-hunger

Betting On Food Prices May Sell The Hungry Short

Quote
Food item    Aug. 2010    Aug. 2011    Pct. change

Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb.    $3.935    $5.766    46.5%
Grapes, Thompson Seedless, per lb.    $1.489    $2.033    36.5%
Margarine, soft, tubs, per lb.    $1.527    $1.890    23.8%
Potatoes, white, per lb.    $0.621    $0.755    21.6%
Cheddar cheese, natural, per lb.    $4.650    $5.647    21.4%
Bread, whole wheat, pan, per lb.    $1.681    $1.974    17.4%
Apples, Red Delicious, per lb.    $1.305    $1.529    17.2%
Sugar, white, all sizes, per lb.    $0.604    $0.701    16.1%
Spaghetti and macaroni, per lb.    $1.118    $1.279    14.4%
Ground chuck, 100% beef, per lb.    $2.849    $3.231    13.4%
Eggs, grade A, large, per doz.    $1.519    $1.711    12.6%
Bacon, sliced, per lb.    $4.353    $4.770    9.6%

Quote
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to soon issue new rules about commodity speculation, as required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

And next month in France, the subject will be in the spotlight at a summit involving top leaders of the G20 — a group of the world's biggest economies. The host, French president Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing for tighter controls to stop speculators from betting on crop prices.

I'm less concerned with the entire "speculation" thing than the entire "control food prices so everyone is equal" thing.

Farmers around here speculate every year. An Uncle refers to this as "Las Vegas" farming. He must come up with the price he will sell his seasonal grains for the year before, sign a contract and fufil that contract. Some years he loses when the weather conditions (etc.) are not the optimum and he must make up the shortfall by purchasing amounts from other sources. Some years he has an abundance and sells to other farmers once he has met his contractual obligations.  He must be aware of the situation around him and analyze where he believes the free-market will rest next year.

This happens with thousands of farmers across the mid-west.

With the proposed changes, this will no longer be an option as he is considered among the "speculators".

As many of us know, the CPI does not include food or gas prices. Therefore the above numbers, if included in the real CPI, would indicate that inflation numbers are being suppressed.

I don't believe that G20 meeting to propose yet more regulations which cannot be fought by the "small farmer", but will surely create a new sub-set of accounting firms to find a way around the "law" is a great idea.

Many of the comments seem to indicate that "this is why we are occupying wall street" and yet the actions requested cause additional hardships for small farmers which are part of the 99%.

Until individuals take the time to understand the basic concept of Economics and/or how additional Regulations affect all aspects of the monetary base - "Houston. We have a problem."





Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 17, 2011, 05:57:13 pm
Yep, lots of folks fall for the "evil speculator" con.  As you point out, most of them are farmers and other producers honestly hedging against risks.

It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a 'dismal science.' But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.   Murry Rothbard
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 18, 2011, 09:06:44 am
Inflation Pressures Intensify as Producer Prices Jump Higher (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44942965)

Quote
U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in September to record their largest increase in five months as gasoline prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted index for prices received by farms, factories and refineries, increased 0.8 percent after being flat in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to increase 0.2 percent.

Excluding volatile food and energy, wholesale prices rose 0.2 percent last month after inching up 0.1 percent in August. That was above economists expectations for a 0.1 percent gain.
Quote
It will probably have little impact on the Federal Reserve, which focuses on core inflation, as it weighs options to help the anemic recovery and pull down an unemployment rate stuck above 9 percent.

Wholesale U.S. Prices Rise More Than Forecast (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-rose-more-than-economists-estimated-in-september.html)
Quote
Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in September, boosted by gasoline, food and trucks, indicating inflationary pressures continue to bubble up the production line.

The producer price index climbed 0.8 percent, the most in five months, after no change in August, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.2 percent gain, according to the median of 71 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy, gained 0.2 percent, also more than predicted.

The Fed stated:
Quote
“With stable inflation expectations, significant slack in labor and product markets, slow wage growth, and little evidence of pricing power among firms, inflation was likely to decline moderately over time,” the minutes said.

Oops.

Some interesting Hyperinflation stories of the Past Century, but we don't have to worry about that because:  http://www.businessinsider.com/worst-hyperinflation-2011-10#ixzz1b8qnrsMQ

Quote
Over the weekend, John Mauldin wrote that he doesn't expect hyperinflation in the U.S. because the Fed can print loads of money without bringing about inflation.

A link to this "best selling authors" article: http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-can-it-happen-here-2011-10?op=1 

Quote
But What About the $70 trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Debt?

I am asked that question all the time. My answer is that it illustrates the power of "It Won't Happen." As in "if it can't happen it won't happen." That number will never be paid, either in terms of current buying power or actual numbers or actual benefits. It can't be. The money is not and will not be there.

The far more interesting question is what will happen when we reach the point of "won't happen." Will that be something we recognize before it happens and act proactively to avoid a cataclysmic event? Will we wait until the bond market jerks our chain about the fiscal crisis, which is massively stagflationary? Yes, the Fed can print to some degree, but not dealing with the crisis will ultimately force a huge restructuring of spending and taxes which, if not caught early enough, will propel us into a certain Second Great Depression. Which is why I think we will deal with it proactively in 2013, because to not do so would be folly of the worst sort. The consequences are unimaginable for the US and for the world. Think Greece, and then go downhill. All over the world.

I think more and more political leaders are beginning to understand that point. They are not happy about it. But I remain hopeful that in 2013 we can actually deal with the deficit and the debt in an orderly manner. If we do not, God help us all.

Cue Silver's Rothbard quote.



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on December 14, 2011, 09:35:59 am
Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547)

Quote
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

Quote
Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of overcounting existing homes sales, with California-based real estate analysis firm CoreLogic claiming sales could have been overstated by as much as 20 percent.

Unexpected comes to mind. Wonder how this will "adjust" everything.


Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Polearm on December 17, 2011, 08:19:08 pm
It may not be the best place to put it, but here it is.

I was in Germany recently and the hotel had 3 channels in English.

That wasn't the interesting part.  One of the commercials on CNN International was for an African bank (not the interesting part either). 

Part of the ad covered the bank's credit rating and the value of their holdings.  I'd like to see more of that with Canadian and US banks.  We won't, but it would be nice.

In other news, doing business with Europe is getting less expensive all the time.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: amagi on December 18, 2011, 12:20:52 am
Saw an add for a bank in a ND paper that said "We will never sell your loan".
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on December 18, 2011, 10:29:15 am
Saw an add for a bank in a ND paper that said "We will never sell your loan".

Scant reassurance when JP can point to any bank (or anything else, for that matter) and say, "I want THAT ONE". It is his shortly thereafter.

But it is better than nothing.  My frn-processing bank publishes a little brochure showing assets, liabilities and comparisons to other banks in the area. It's strong, as those things go.  However, I keep no more frns there than necessary to conduct checking and debit card business. Most frns stay outside of their buildings and if I ever get very many together at a time, they convert to silver coins or rounds.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: motomom on January 01, 2012, 03:34:32 pm
I own a retail store and we got price increases from every supplier, anywhere from 4% to 10%, in the price lists we received this year.  All go into effect Jan 1, today.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 03, 2012, 09:37:10 am
Precursor to "Soup Lines"?

Schools could feed hungry on weekends (http://www.news-leader.com/article/20120103/NEWS01/201030334/Springfield-school-district-hunger-food-kids-students?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE)
Quote
Worried too many children are going hungry, Springfield school officials want to help provide hot and nutritious meals to kids outside of the traditional school day.

Superintendent Norm Ridder has proposed offering breakfast or lunch -- free to anyone age 18 or under -- on Saturdays at Reed Middle School.
Quote
Federal funding to prepare and provide the food is available through the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Child and Adult Care Food Program.

The district would be reimbursed for any meal provided to a child or youth, and accompanying parents could eat if they pay a small fee. No income or other documentation is required.

Doing a search - according to the CDC - 33% of School Age Children are overweight in Illinois. I'm not saying starvation is the answer, but perhaps the introduction of "public feeding troughs" contributes to this issue with poor food choices.

How many of us on TMM see hungry children? Maybe I'm just too removed from the problem to analyze this effectively. Is there really an issue? Is there a return to Soup Lines coming?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on January 03, 2012, 10:30:15 am
How many of us on TMM see hungry children? Maybe I'm just too removed from the problem to analyze this effectively. Is there really an issue? Is there a return to Soup Lines coming?

Our church has a program where we send food for the weekend to a number of kids at a nearby school.  Completely voluntary and those that help out are very generous indeed.  Also, the 20+ families that benefit from this are very thankful - send the church thank-you notes on a regular basis.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: OLD TIRED RN on January 03, 2012, 12:04:24 pm
Our church has also helped quite a number of people in which the cases were looked into pretty well, and we found, especially old people, who either bought their medicine, food, or paid rent/housing, but couldn't do all three. Also, single parent homes, mostly where dad "took a hike" when the jobs went away were helped with food which the children really needed for sure. We keep some grocery bags with the same non perishable goods all ready in the bag all ready so that whoever is at the building or the secretary can just give it to the person with records kept so we at least minimize abuse of what we have to give. The food is all bought out of our local donations of those of us who are members of that church only. No outreach for donations from the community. Thankfully, we have been able to help a large number of families who truly needed the food that we could help provide.

                                                          RN
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 19, 2012, 08:35:45 am
I know everything is getting better apparently, but not everyone agrees:

BLS changing basis for calculating inflation  :  http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/01/bls_changing_basis_for_calculating_inflation.html

Quote
According to the BLS, prices are dropping, including such areas as food and fuel.  Funny, I haven't noticed anything close to a price drop at the grocer or the pump.  Regardless, taking this data at face value, it likely reflects a shrinking demand for good and services because of an economic slowdown.

Also, it simply belies the issue with the increase in money stock that has built up over the last several years.

In effect, one changes the way data is utilized when the numbers being tossed in the pot no longer give an edible soup.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 19, 2012, 08:45:12 am
Funny, I haven't noticed anything close to a price drop at the grocer or the pump.  Regardless, taking this data at face value, it likely reflects a shrinking demand for good and services because of an economic slowdown.


The price of regular gas has dropped quite a bit here, but diesel remains sky high. The food prices that have risen drastically are those things depending on corn or wheat in any way. Meat, milk, eggs, bread, etc. Fresh fruits and vegetables are always expensive here, especially in the winter, but 90 cents a pound for cabbage and carrots is truly insane... But we've been paying that for over a year now.

We have not yet had much of an economic slow down in this area. The prices reflect what our suppliers must pay for things brought in, of course.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: gaurdduck on January 26, 2012, 10:24:09 pm
The only bank I trust is pink and has a curly tail.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 27, 2012, 08:19:51 am
http://www.businessinsider.com/2011-gdp-2012-1  1.7% : 
Quote
That's the final, pathetic growth number for 2011.

(yes 4th quarter was up)



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 31, 2012, 08:06:15 am
Flashie thingie warning for D/U users

Dial 911 if this story makes your eyes bleed  :  http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/dial_if_this_story_makes_your_eyes_mUsVVoUaMuMRt4AK2DlXxJ#ixzz1l2otcppW
 (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/dial_if_this_story_makes_your_eyes_mUsVVoUaMuMRt4AK2DlXxJ#ixzz1l2otcppW)

Quote
The economy did horribly in the last three months of 2011.

I know that’s not what you’ve been hearing.

During this past Christmas season you were first told that consumers were dying to get to the malls and shop. That turned out to be true — for a couple of days at least, while stores were desperately discounting everything they had.

Then you were told that manufacturers were having a bang-up month and that automakers were selling cars like it was the old days.

And Apple — who could forget Apple? — was selling iAnythings like they were some sort of lifesaving device and every American was in the hospital emergency room.

Insert some pretty interesting sarcasm explaining how this point was reached :   

Quote
Let me put this another way in case you are missing my outrage.

If the inflation figure used in last Friday’s GDP figure had just remained the same as the 2.6 percent rate from the third quarter, Washington would have had to report fourth-quarter annualized growth of just 0.6 percent.

(Calculation: Inflation was lowered by 2.2 percentage points. So subtract 2.2 percent from the 2.8 percent growth to get 0.6 percent.)

And that’s an annualized rate. So divide the 0.6 percent by four quarters and the economy expanded at an itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny 0.15 percent in the fourth quarter.

On Friday, the Labor Department will issue its employment report for January.

Wall Street had better get out the Depends.



Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on February 13, 2012, 10:46:26 am
Obama unveils big spending election-year budget  :  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/13/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE8191MJ20120213

Quote
Obama's 2013 budget proposal to Congress requests over $800 billion for job creation and infrastructure investment, while urging a minimum 30 percent tax on millionaires in a "rule" named after investor Warren Buffett.

so - what's in it for the "other side"? Come out against QE3 - I'm guessing they will just modify this to suit themselves.

At this point the hole being dug is so deep we should be able to see the other side of the world by  now.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on February 14, 2012, 10:43:29 am
Obama unveils big spending election-year budget  :  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/13/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE8191MJ20120213

Quote
Obama's 2013 budget proposal to Congress requests over $800 billion for job creation and infrastructure investment, while urging a minimum 30 percent tax on millionaires in a "rule" named after investor Warren Buffett.

so - what's in it for the "other side"? Come out against QE3 - I'm guessing they will just modify this to suit themselves.

At this point the hole being dug is so deep we should be able to see the other side of the world by  now.

"Dear vote sellers, this is what I think I can get congress to pay for your votes this election"   I wonder how much he is going to continue wasting to destroy the economy and loot the people
Title: Tide Detergent theft For Resale On The Black Market
Post by: byron mc on March 14, 2012, 10:58:27 am
when even meth addicts will use something else other than FRNs.

Quote
Some cops say it is connected to the drug trade in certain areas, as police have busted drug dealers and found more Tide than drugs on the premises. It seems users are reportedly trading Tide for drugs.

Quote
it’s a staple in households across socioeconomic classes.

Tide can go for $5 to $10 a bottle on the black market, authorities say. Enterprising laundry soap peddlers even resell bottles to stores.

“There’s no serial numbers and it’s impossible to track,” said Detective Larry Patterson of the Somerset, Ky., Police Department,


Quote
retailers like CVS are taking special security precautions to lock down the liquid.


Quote
“They’ll do it right in front of a cop car — buying heroin or methamphetamine with Tide,” said Detective Rick Blake of the Gresham Police Department. “We would see people walking down the road with six, seven bottles of Tide. They were so blatant about it.”


GRIME WAVE
It’s a dirty job: Police nationwide take on soaring Tide detergent theft

http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/03/12/031212-news-tide-theft-1-4/

via
Thieves Are Targeting Tide Detergent For Resale On The Black Market
http://consumerist.com/2012/03/thieves-are-targeting-tide-detergent-for-resale-on-the-black-market.html

via
Tide is the new currency on the criminal underground, can be exchanged for meth
http://boingboing.net/2012/03/13/tide-is-the-new-currency-on-th.html
Title: Re: Tide Detergent theft For Resale On The Black Market
Post by: MamaLiberty on March 14, 2012, 11:13:41 am
when even meth addicts will use something else other than FRNs.

Some cops say it is connected to the drug trade in certain areas, as police have busted drug dealers and found more Tide than drugs on the premises. It seems users are reportedly trading Tide for drugs.

Tide? That stuff is seriously overpriced. I can buy five times as much house brand laundry soap for the same money at the dollar store.
Title: Re: Tide Detergent theft For Resale On The Black Market
Post by: knobster on March 15, 2012, 05:26:56 am
Tide? That stuff is seriously overpriced. I can buy five times as much house brand laundry soap for the same money at the dollar store.

Yes it is.  I now make my own and it shakes out to mere pennies per load.
Title: Re: Tide Detergent theft For Resale On The Black Market
Post by: MamaLiberty on March 15, 2012, 10:08:47 am
Tide? That stuff is seriously overpriced. I can buy five times as much house brand laundry soap for the same money at the dollar store.

Yes it is.  I now make my own and it shakes out to mere pennies per load.

I use so little that would not be worth bothering with. A $6. bottle lasts me a year or more.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on March 15, 2012, 05:46:31 pm
It's over....the recession...depression....whatever we've been calling it is OVER.  Yaaaaahooooooo.  Happy days are here again......

Stock Market Rises to 4 Year High.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-index-futures-signal-early-101528984.html


NOT!!!!!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on March 16, 2012, 09:23:45 am
Unemployment dropped to a 4 year low..........okay there was a .0 whatever percent change on the steady 8+% figure for 4 years right?  Notice they do not mention a single number......... :bs:  same old same old.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on March 16, 2012, 09:36:51 am
My favorite was that Manufacturing didn't change at all this month (with an expected 0.4% rise) which was "bad". However last months numbers were revised upwards - 0.4%. See how that works. They balance out and all is now good in the world of Economics!


http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/03/industrial-production-flat-in-february-after-flat-january/  (http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/03/industrial-production-flat-in-february-after-flat-january/)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: NuclearDruid on August 02, 2012, 09:36:36 am
Drought takes toll on river transport cities (http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/drought-takes-toll-river-transport-cities)

Quote
Miller: We have 60-70 percent of our equipment idle, just waiting for work. Harvest is due to start in the Southern United States in the next two weeks, maybe we can get some more barges loaded then, but you know, we've had this level of being idle for the last two to three months.
ND
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 06, 2012, 09:19:51 am
Pennsylvania Ends its General Assistance Program  :  http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/pennsylvania-ends-its-general-assistance-program-85899409460 (http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/pennsylvania-ends-its-general-assistance-program-85899409460)

Quote
Pennsylvania became the latest state to end its general assistance program last week, revoking benefits for nearly 70,000 of its citizens after a one-month extension ran out on August 1.

The program provided about $200 a month in temporary aid, much of it to adults without dependents who are deemed at least temporarily unemployable. The cut is expected to save about $150 million annually out of the states $27.7 billion budget, which Republican Governor Tom Corbett signed June 30.

General assistance was Pennsylvanias catch-all program for those who didnt qualify for other safety net programs such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, commonly known as welfare, or who needed more assistance. Many of its beneficiaries were homeless, victims of domestic abuse, temporarily disabled, caring for a family member or otherwise ill.

The cuts have prompted angry protests across the Keystone State since the budget was signed.  As The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, more than 200 people protested and blocked traffic outside the governors Philadelphia office on Tuesday, the day before the cut took effect.

"We're seeing absolute panic right now about how people are going to maintain their housing primarily, get to doctor's appointments, and pay co-pays for medicines," Marsha Cohen, executive director of the Homeless Advocacy Project, told the paper.

Link to ref article from above: http://articles.philly.com/2012-08-02/news/32981930_1_addicts-general-assistance-corporate-taxes (http://articles.philly.com/2012-08-02/news/32981930_1_addicts-general-assistance-corporate-taxes)





Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 06, 2012, 02:18:30 pm



Quote
The cuts have prompted angry protests across the Keystone State since the budget was signed.  As The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, more than 200 people protested and blocked traffic outside the governors Philadelphia office on Tuesday, the day before the cut took effect.

"We're seeing absolute panic right now about how people are going to maintain their housing primarily, get to doctor's appointments, and pay co-pays for medicines," Marsha Cohen, executive director of the Homeless Advocacy Project, told the paper.

Let's call it "tough love". Babies do cry when you start to ween them off the teat. (government teat in this case)  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on August 08, 2012, 09:32:02 am
200 people?!  OMG :rolleyes:  If it was serious it would have been thousands.........   Looks like a bunch of folks figured out how to do without that extra 200$ somehow......... 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 08, 2012, 10:40:47 am
200 people?!  OMG :rolleyes:  If it was serious it would have been thousands.........   Looks like a bunch of folks figured out how to do without that extra 200$ somehow.........

I'd like to think that people are finding ways to do without or work around their budgets. I still wouldn't want to be around 200 (or even 2) people who found their "stable" income modified down by x amount.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on August 08, 2012, 11:04:42 am
This is where things begin to get real. I expect to see more types
of support "unfunded" as TPTB fess up that there just isn't the money
to pay them anymore.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on August 08, 2012, 11:44:20 am
Quote
His mother is still involved, but only marginally. White qualified for G.A. as a "Good Samaritan" - an adult who agrees to care for a child who is not a relative. The funds helped pay for the child's food and clothing, White said, but the $205 no longer even covered a month of food for the boy.

WTH?  The state is paying people for being nice and neighborly?  Heck, three neighbor children spend half their waking hours at our house because their parents are too busy acting like college kids.  Can we qualify for 'Good Samaritan' money?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on August 09, 2012, 02:33:08 pm
You might qualify, but you don't want that money.  Government "help" is the most expensive way possible to get cash.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 13, 2012, 07:56:38 am
Quote
Government "help" is the most expensive way possible to get cash.

In Iowa, Obama to announce measures to soothe drought pain  :  http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite (http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite)
Quote
President Barack Obama will announce on Monday that the Department of Agriculture intends to buy up to $170 million of pork, lamb, chicken and catfish to help support farmers suffering from the drought, a White House official said.

Quote
"This is a win-win. Farmers and ranchers will have an opportunity to sell more of their products at this critical time and taxpayers will get a better price on food that would have been purchased later," the official said.

Doesn't that just drive up the price of food that "responsible" people have to purchase? Also inflates the appearance of our economy thereby giving false reads on the manufacturing/farm/crop stability?

As ND points out, at least new money is not being printed to give to the food banks to buy the stuff themselves thereby devaluing the dollar even more.

Not that it really matters.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 13, 2012, 08:12:17 am
Fortunately, this too shall pass.

And those who manage to wisely retain a little prime breeding stock may be looking at roses when this is over...  and a stocked catfish pond might well be overlooked by raiders too. :)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on August 14, 2012, 06:14:40 am
As ND points out, at least new money is not being printed to give to the food banks to buy the stuff themselves thereby devaluing the dollar even more.

One out of every three dollars spent by the federal government is borrowed, and most of the borrowed money is "printed."  Actually, the presses melted down long ago, they couldn't keep up with the rising tide of new money.  Now it is just created in electronic ledgers.

But it is being created, in massive amounts.  Money is fungible, so there's no way to discern the printed money going to the military-industrial complex from the tax loot going to the pharmaco-industrial complex from the blood-soaked bills pried from the dying hands of mundanes going to the agrico-industrial complex, from the pension savings being churned and scammed away by the financial-industrial complex.

I made a trade recently using silver quarters, minted in 1964.  Face value, $0.25.  Melt value, $5.  That's a factor of 40 in 48 years!  Buy you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on August 14, 2012, 10:40:54 am
I made a trade recently using silver quarters, minted in 1964.  Face value, $0.25.  Melt value, $5.  That's a factor of 40 in 48 years!  Buy you ain't seen nuthin' yet.
Peace,
Silver

My children were helping me weigh out troy ounces of silver a couple of weeks ago and their eyes grew rather large when I told them how much each silver quarter was worth.  Hard to believe that less than 50 years ago most people had pockets full of the coins.  How far this country has fallen.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on August 14, 2012, 10:52:55 am
As ND points out, at least new money is not being printed to give to the food banks to buy the stuff themselves thereby devaluing the dollar even more.

One out of every three dollars spent by the federal government is borrowed, and most of the borrowed money is "printed." 

I was wrong.  So wrong I have to correct my error.

The fedgov officially spends about $3.7 trillion per year.  It takes in about $2.5 trillion, and creates $1.2 trillion in new money via the magic of debt.  That was the basis of my "one dollar in three is borrowed" statement.

But I neglected the off-budget figures.  It is a big number.

$11 Trillion Increase in Federal Debt in One Year (http://teapartyeconomist.com/2012/08/10/11-trillion-increase-in-debt-in-one-year/)

So total revenues are $3.7 trillion, and total increase in debt is $11 trillion, for a total expenditure of $14.7 trillion.    That's roughly equal to the value of ALL goods and services produced by the US economy in one year.

We make the money, and the government spends it.  All of it.

Three out of every four dollars being spent by the fedgov is created out of thin air.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 14, 2012, 03:14:10 pm


I made a trade recently using silver quarters, minted in 1964.  Face value, $0.25.  Melt value, $5.  That's a factor of 40 in 48 years!  Buy you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Peace,

Silver
I just bought A LOT of coin silver. I bought @ 28.08/oz. Worth less right now, but I'm not worried. I'm "long" on silver investments. Buy and hold.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 15, 2012, 03:47:51 pm
http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-clearest-possible-harbinger-of.html (http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-clearest-possible-harbinger-of.html)

Quote
I've mentioned on previous occasions that the international shipping of containers and bulk cargo is a harbinger of world economic conditions.  According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, things look very bleak indeed.

Quote
Mr. Evans-Pritchard is writing primarily about the state of the shipping industry itself, but the fact that the bottom has fallen out of the international shipping industry now, in the third quarter, is of immense importance as a broader economic indicator.  This is the time of year when massive orders for the Christmas shopping season should be on their way to US and European ports.  If wholesalers, distributors and economic giants like Walmart or Sears (or their European equivalents) aren't ordering their usual shipments, it's because they don't expect consumer demand to be there this year . . . and what does that tell you about the state of the world economy?

The only thing I can think of is perhaps "big box stores" chose to store last years unsold merchandise - this does look pretty weird.

-----------
Quote
I was wrong.  So wrong I have to correct my error.

I have so noted in the Official Log that upon the date of August 14th, 2012 - Silver was incorrect for a brief moment in time

(http://www.animationplayhouse.com/aapencildance.gif)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on August 17, 2012, 01:52:46 pm
I have so noted in the Official Log that upon the date of August 14th, 2012 - Silver was incorrect for a brief moment in time

That log is either incomplete or very, very long.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on August 17, 2012, 02:14:52 pm
I needed mayonnaise. My 48oz jar of Hellman's cost $6.39. With tax it came to $7.47. For one jar. Of mayonnaise. One. Jar.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 17, 2012, 02:52:49 pm
I needed mayonnaise. My 48oz jar of Hellman's cost $6.39. With tax it came to $7.47. For one jar. Of mayonnaise. One. Jar.

Yep, same price here. You want brand name fancy, you pay more for it.

Last jar I got was $3.50 - store brand on sale. No tax on food here. Since I don't use a whole jar of mayonnaise in a year, usually, that represented quite a luxury purchase for me even then. I had company coming and wanted to make potato salad. The things we do for company. :)  :rolleyes:  I was too lazy at that point to just make some...

You might want to consider making your own mayonnaise, actually. Better control of ingredients and probably much lower cost in the long run unless you use a lot of it.  Here is a simple recipe from my favorite recipe site: http://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/paula-deen/mayonnaise-recipe/index.html

Only takes about 10 minutes, including cleanup. Have a sterile jar ready to put it in and refrigerate promptly. Only make what you will need for  a week at a time - or less. This won't keep like the commercial stuff.  Oh, and read the comments! I love the full amount of mustard called for, but some folks liked the mayonnaise better with less.  Make very small batches, keeping notes, until you find the balance of ingredients you like the best.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on August 20, 2012, 10:27:24 am
It has been a long, long time since I have seen bald tires and tires with the nylon or steel core showing.  They are now turning up here and there. 

Modern tires have "wear bars" built in so the tire salesman can point to these spots and sell you a new set... and so the Badges can point to them and order you to spend money at the tire dealership.  In depressed personal economies, people run their tires until they fail completely.  In a greater depression you see them all over the place.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on August 20, 2012, 05:43:01 pm

In Iowa, Obama to announce measures to soothe drought pain  :  http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite (http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite)

Quote
President Barack Obama will announce on Monday that the Department of Agriculture intends to buy up to $170 million of pork, lamb, chicken and catfish to help support farmers suffering from the drought, a White House official said.

Quote
"This is a win-win. Farmers and ranchers will have an opportunity to sell more of their products at this critical time and taxpayers will get a better price on food that would have been purchased later," the official said.

Okay, this is one of those posts that causes me to want to log onto some sort of real-time view of the Earth.

It is still Round, yes?

It hasn't mysteriously metamorphosed into a Cube?

I'm still in Reality and not on the Bizzarro World?

Let me see--In a Drought, or other shortage, the Price of Catfish, Chicken and Pork--as well as other stuff--should go up!

Low prices aren't the problem, low wields are the problem.

So unless the Kenyan is planning on paying well over market price for the Meat, how is that supposed to help Farmers?

If the Fascist Welfare State simply must intervene, wouldn't it be simpler and less bother to simply hand the Farmers that it wants to subsidize a predetermined bit of Cash?

At least then they wouldn't have to bollix around packaging and then figuring out what to do with the meat.....

And the market distortion should be less--not a free market by any means, but less saturated with State Bumbling.....

Or am I missing something somewhere?

.....RVM45              :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on August 20, 2012, 07:12:04 pm

In Iowa, Obama to announce measures to soothe drought pain  :  http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite (http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13250065-in-iowa-obama-to-announce-measures-to-soothe-drought-pain?lite)

Quote
President Barack Obama will announce on Monday that the Department of Agriculture intends to buy up to $170 million of pork, lamb, chicken and catfish to help support farmers suffering from the drought, a White House official said.

Quote
"This is a win-win. Farmers and ranchers will have an opportunity to sell more of their products at this critical time and taxpayers will get a better price on food that would have been purchased later," the official said.

Okay, this is one of those posts that causes me to want to log onto some sort of real-time view of the Earth.

It is still Round, yes?

It hasn't mysteriously metamorphosed into a Cube?

I'm still in Reality and not on the Bizzarro World?

Let me see--In a Drought, or other shortage, the Price of Catfish, Chicken and Pork--as well as other stuff--should go up!

Low prices aren't the problem, low wields are the problem.

So unless the Kenyan is planning on paying well over market price for the Meat, how is that supposed to help Farmers?

If the Fascist Welfare State simply must intervene, wouldn't it be simpler and less bother to simply hand the Farmers that it wants to subsidize a predetermined bit of Cash?

At least then they wouldn't have to bollix around packaging and then figuring out what to do with the meat.....

And the market distortion should be less--not a free market by any means, but less saturated with State Bumbling.....

Or am I missing something somewhere?

.....RVM45              :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

RVM45,

The prices will go up eventually, but in the short term prices go down for beef, lamb, etc., as ranchers dump
the livestock on the market they can no longer afford to feed. Since this is happening to an entire region, most
of the ranchers are selling livestock, and this drives the price down.

Eventually, after all this meat passes through the market, there will be scarcity and higher prices.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on August 20, 2012, 07:43:45 pm
Okay, that makes sense--so far as it goes.

What long-term consequences accompany sponsoring the Dumpers?

.....RVM45         :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on August 20, 2012, 09:34:58 pm
The lovely thing about Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand", also known as the free market, is that the low prices today can be taken advantage of by someone who has placed themselves in a position to do so. That person is called an entrepreneur or investor. They have capital set aside for, surprise, investing.

They buy low and process, preserve and store the excess. Then when the supplies get tight, they sell for a profit.  This is a way of earning money while providing a VALUABLE SERVICE.  Ya' see, the investor, by adding to the inventory in the coming lean times, makes more product available to all at a lower price than would prevail if the fresh stuff was the  ONLY choice.

Of course mucking up the market is what turns little dips into GREAT depressions.  They have done it before and will continue to do so as long as we are stupid enough to let them.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on August 21, 2012, 12:12:50 am
Okay, that makes sense--so far as it goes.

What long-term consequences accompany sponsoring the Dumpers?

.....RVM45         :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

Back when the US had a farm policy that favored the producers instead of
the middle men, the government would buy on the dips to throw a 'floor'
under grain prices, and then sell back into the market when the price was
rising. This had the effect of stabilizing prices, somewhat.

For some time what we have had is a screwed up farm policy that favors
the middle men and large scale agribusiness. What the pres is suggesting,
is something that sounds like a return to a policy that worked better for
the small farmer.

Not really sure how they are going to to do this with cattle which don't
stack well in piles like grain, and require an on-going cost in food, water,
and labor to care for them until they are resold.

If I were a meat packer, I would dive into this and CAN as much meat as
possible, and then sell it back on to the market as demand allows. Canning
the meat would circumvent the whole gotta-sell-this-meat-fresh supply chain
and soften the price whiplash that's bound to follow.

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 21, 2012, 06:12:56 am
Quote
Not really sure how they are going to to do this with cattle which don't
stack well in piles like grain, and require an on-going cost in food, water,
and labor to care for them until they are resold.

Bear - What's interesting is that Beef is not included in the current "buy up" situation. Specifics have not been announced, however if these numbers are to be believed :

Quote
Just to put this into perspective, the Defense Department buys about 94 million pounds of beef, 64 million pounds of pork and 500,000 pounds of lamb annually. And you think the government is too bloated!

The USDA says the meat will go to food assistance programs - anyone else grow up broke like me and remember that "delicious" gubmint cheese? Way to waste $170 million worth of quality Iowa meat, yo.

$170 million worth of meat is only about 10 hours' worth of the nation's meat output (ooh, that sounded dirty). Unfortunately for Obama on his little campaign trip, the corn belt isn't buying it. The issue - as JDA has been saying for yeeeears, come on you guys! - is that farmers are required by the same government kind enough to buy up 10 hours' worth of meat to use a whopping FORTY percent of this year's corn crop to produce engine-killing ethanol. Make it stop already, please, and get the government out of our freaking fields, they obviously have no idea what they're doing. So crops are drying up and prices are going to be insane as a result but meat prices are down so let's buy some up and freeze it? I honestly don't understand what these people are thinking.

http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2012/08/iowa-farmers-are-not-impressed-by.html (http://www.jrdeputyaccountant.com/2012/08/iowa-farmers-are-not-impressed-by.html)

What I will ultimately be curious about would be - how much of the cash goes to the farmers and how much will be increased by the addition of more middlemen from field to freezer?

Either way, with $4 Billion in subsidies last year in the Ag. Sector it's rife for a little give and take here and there.

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on August 21, 2012, 06:37:12 am
Back when the US had a farm policy that favored the producers instead of
the middle men, the government would buy on the dips to throw a 'floor'
under grain prices, and then sell back into the market when the price was
rising. This had the effect of stabilizing prices, somewhat.

It works that way when the entrepreneurs/ investors do the buying. It is never good policy and the results are never good when government does it. The money the investor uses is his own money, saved by NOT buying other things, of course. The money used by the government is stolen from everyone, skewing the market and their own preferences for using that money.

Price "stability" is a false goal and bad policy. Yes, we like it better when we shop, and the farmer loves to be able to plan on a "stable" income, but it is a bad idea and cheats everyone in the long run. What government "price stability" actually accomplishes is the boom and bust we have experienced for so long. Their policies actually disrupt supply and cause shortages, not stable prices.

A great deal of the grain and other foods bought by the government in this effort was poorly handled and wasted besides. And will be again...

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mi6a2lm on August 21, 2012, 06:45:55 am
Quote
anyone else grow up broke like me and remember that "delicious" gubmint cheese? Way to waste $170 million worth of quality Iowa meat, yo.


Hah!  I remember those five pound blocks of cheese from the Boy Scouts.  At Philmont (near the base of the Sange de Christos) the cheese was second only to water - it was considered a privilege to pack it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68LAbJtd4uk    [3:15]  [Circle Jerks - When the Shit Hits the Fan (from the cult movie 'Repo Man')]

---
In a sluggish economy
Inflation,recession
Hits the land of the free
Standing in unemployment lines
Blame the government for hard time

We just get by
However we can
We all gotta duck
When the shit hits the fan
10 kids in a cadillac
Stand in lines for welfare checks
Let's all leach off the state
Gee!the money's really great!

Soup lines
Free loaves of bread
5lb blocks of cheese
Bags of groceries
Social security
Has run out on you and me
We do whatever we can
Gotta duck when the shit hits the fan
----
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 21, 2012, 03:38:48 pm
Quote
anyone else grow up broke like me and remember that "delicious" gubmint cheese? Way to waste $170 million worth of quality Iowa meat, yo.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68LAbJtd4uk    [3:15]  [Circle Jerks - When the Shit Hits the Fan (from the cult movie 'Repo Man')]

---
In a sluggish economy
Inflation,recession
Hits the land of the free
Standing in unemployment lines
Blame the government for hard time

We just get by
However we can
We all gotta duck
When the shit hits the fan
10 kids in a cadillac
Stand in lines for welfare checks
Let's all leach off the state
Gee!the money's really great!

Soup lines
Free loaves of bread
5lb blocks of cheese
Bags of groceries
Social security
Has run out on you and me
We do whatever we can
Gotta duck when the shit hits the fan
----
Cool song. I've never heard it before.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on August 21, 2012, 03:45:30 pm
I loved that Cheese. The Government finally found something that they were good at.....

Making Cheese!

Much better than that Slimy Nasty Velveeta.

I would pay a fair price for blocks of Cheese like that if they were available on the Free Market!

I really liked the firmness and relative dryness.

I hate and Loathe the Word "Delicious" when applied to Food.

{I myself might say, "The Irony was 'Delicious'." }

For Years I had an ongoing Squabble with my Father over the use of that Loathsome Word.

If he said to me anything like "Try this, It's Delicious."

I would refuse to eat it, even if I was Hungry; There was Nothing Else to Eat; and it was something that I liked.

"I have a Rule," I'd tell him. "I don't eat 'Delicious' food."



.....RVM45          :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 22, 2012, 05:22:10 pm

 I just bought A LOT of coin silver. I bought @ 28.08/oz. Worth less right now, but I'm not worried. I'm "long" on silver investments. Buy and hold.
Silver now $30.01/oz .
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on August 31, 2012, 08:33:50 am
Warning - this has an auto-pop-up advertisement.

Japan plans to cut state spending, could run out of money in a month :  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9510811/Japan-plans-to-cut-state-spending-could-run-out-of-money-in-a-month.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9510811/Japan-plans-to-cut-state-spending-could-run-out-of-money-in-a-month.html)
Quote
The impasse in Japan's parliament has raised fears among investors that the world's third largest economy is being driven towards a "fiscal cliff", Reuters reported.

"The government running out of money is not a story made up. It's a real threat," Finance Minister Jun Azumi told a news conference, making a last-ditch appeal for cooperation by opposition parties to pass the bill.

"Failing to pass the bill will give markets the impression that Japan's fiscal management rests on shaky ground," he said.

Unless the bill clears the current parliamentary session that ends next week, the government will start suspending or reducing some state spending to avoid running out of money for as long as possible, the finance ministry said.

Sounds similar to what is happening in many places around the world.

Quote
Several ruling party and opposition lawmakers have suggested that Noda would probably wait out the stalemate until the current parliament session ends on September 8 and call a snap vote during an extra session in October to secure the deficit financing bill's passage.

The term "fiscal cliff" is commonly associated with around $500bn (316bn) in expiring US tax cuts and spending cuts that could kick in automatically next year, triggering a "significant recession", according to the Congressional Budget Office.

I wonder how long it will be until Webster's adds "fiscal cliff" as an official definition...


Anyway - Just thought I'd mention a conversation that ND and I had the other day. We both agreed to air our general concerns about the economy and what appears to be the situation around the world (Leading to another official "Great Depression"). There seems to be an uptick in strife among families and we are trying to acknowledge those to "nip 'em in the bud" where we can.

"May you live in interesting times" certainly seems to be the norm now.

**edited to add : Hopefully the PI earthquake this morning doesn't send another Tsunami Japan's way.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 31, 2012, 03:41:42 pm

Sounds similar to what is happening in many places around the world.


Hit the nail on the head mutti. :thumbsup: There are many currency systems that will fail.....soon.....unless drastic measures are taken. Worldwide QE is on the way. Massive inflation will soon follow. Prepare for it.


Edit-

Silver jumped $1.29 today. Current price is $31.72/oz. It's still not too late to buy. I expect it to be at least 25% higher by the end of the year.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 31, 2012, 04:05:24 pm
Bernankes hint of QE3 fills a hole with Jacksons

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/08/31/bernankes-hint-of-qe3-fills-a-hole-with-jacksons/

Quote
Today its all about the Benjamins and the Jacksons. Ben Bernanke kept the faith in the Feds unconventional policies on Friday in his speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo., and the faithful are being rewarded with visions of $100s and $20s and more floating down from Bens helicopter.

THAT is why silver jumped today. Bernanke opened his mouth. He hinted at QE3, which everybody KNOWS is inevitable. I guess investors just had to hear it directly from the horse's mouth.

Speaking of which........ Me >:deadhorse:< Bernanke
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on August 31, 2012, 04:23:06 pm
I apologize for my ignorance.

Can someone explain "QE3"?

I thought that it was another Super-Sized Cruise Ship--Like the QE2.....

.....RVM45            :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on August 31, 2012, 04:48:37 pm
I apologize for my ignorance.

Can someone explain "QE3"?

I thought that it was another Super-Sized Cruise Ship--Like the QE2.....

.....RVM45            :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

It's basically the third round of printing money out of thin air since the crash in 07-08.

Here is a more complete version- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Quote
Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional[1][2] monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank buys financial assets to inject a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy.

PS- No need to apologize. Everybody knows the the government steals from them, but most have no idea how they go about it. Basically the government wore out their favorite dildo, and need to buy another one so they can continue butt raping us, uninterrupted. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: penguinsscareme on September 01, 2012, 11:39:55 am
I apologize for my ignorance.

Can someone explain "QE3"?

I thought that it was another Super-Sized Cruise Ship--Like the QE2.....

.....RVM45            :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

QE stands for "quantitative easing," which translates on the street to "bailout." That's when they dump such a large *quantity* of currency into the monetary base that it *eases* the hangover felt by investors.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on September 01, 2012, 05:05:24 pm
I guess investors just had to hear it directly from the horse's mouth.

When speaking of such, uh, earthly carbon units, my translator seems to stumble over which part of the horse they represent. The exact words, as they come through into my brain, aren't perfectly suited for family viewing, but far, far more accurate.


I apologize for my ignorance.
Can someone explain "QE3"?
I thought that it was another Super-Sized Cruise Ship--Like the QE2.....
.....RVM45            :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:

Another explanation of QE3, is that the QE, or Quantitative Easing, is NewSpeak (aka Orwell's 1984) for central bank forging money on an impossible-to-imagine GRAND SCALE.  They GIVE this money to the bankers who own the Federal Reserve to spread around the entire Bilderberg Group. Those outside of this elite cadre see their dollars immediately become much less scarce, less rare, more common and therefore worth a whole lot less.

RVM45 was much closer than suspected, as QE3 is very much like the Titanic with the captain and crew selling passes for non-existent lifeboats as the ship prepares to head to the bottom.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on September 02, 2012, 10:05:30 pm
So it amounts to:

 Crank up the Printing Presses!!!

I remember vaguely, that the Government and even lending institutions to a lessor degree, can inflate the currency--for awhile--by tinkering with fractional reservre policies and what-not.

I thought that this might be another Bootstrapping Maneuver.....

But no such luck, at least some of the complicated flim-flam and sleight of hand can be entertaining.

This is on the order of:

 "Skew Subtlety! We don't need no Steenking Subtlety--We is in Charge. What! Ya gotta problem wit dat!?"

Thanks for explaining.

.....RVM45           :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 04, 2012, 09:18:13 am
US Manufacturing, Construction Spending Shrink  :  http://www.cnbc.com/id/48894306 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48894306)
Quote
U.S. manufacturing shrank at its sharpest clip in more than three years in August while U.S. construction spending in July fell by the most in a year, new reports showed on Tuesday.

Surprisingly - most Economists expected growth. hm.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 04, 2012, 09:30:17 am
Surprisingly - most Economists expected growth. hm.

Just more magical thinking. They figure they know what's right and good, so if they can do it OFTEN enough, eventually it will work out the way they expect it to.

What was that definition of insanity again...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 07, 2012, 08:16:50 am
Numbers, numbers, numbers: 
Payrolls in U.S. Rose 96,000 in August, Jobless Rate Fell : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/payrolls-in-u-s-rose-96-000-in-august-jobless-rate-falls.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/payrolls-in-u-s-rose-96-000-in-august-jobless-rate-falls.html)

Quote
Payrolls rose less than projected in August and the unemployment rate declined as more Americans left the labor force, indicating the U.S. labor market is stagnating.

The economy added 96,000 workers last month following a revised 141,000 rise in July that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 92 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 130,000. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 8.1 percent, and hourly earnings were unchanged.

Okay. Couldn't sleep this morning and was up looking @ info. Everyone was saying "Well - If there is not an increase of 120K - we're screwed." So - only 96K (revised) and 107K which will most likely be revised next month. Unemployment falls 0.2% - not because anything is "better" per se, but because 386K "left the labor force" (for whatever reason).

Everyone was surprised - except of course the President because he gets the numbers before the rest of us.

As Of This Moment, Obama, Who Is About To Speak At The DNC, Knows Tomorrow's NFP Number : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/moment-obama-knows-tomorrows-nfp-number (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/moment-obama-knows-tomorrows-nfp-number)
Quote
One thing we know for certain is that as of this moment the incumbent candidate knows precisely what seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll number will be when it is announced tomorrow at 8:30 am. And since the TOTUS is very good at highlighting marginal moves in the economy, expect a leak or two during today's DNC speech. Then again, since the August number will not have to be discussed at the DNC, which ends this evening, there is a chance that the number of part-time workers added will be substantially below the 150,000 latest whisper number

I cannot find the article, however Jobs Numbers used to be sent to News Agencies and earlier this Summer it was decided that News Agencies could only get the numbers from the White House.

So the DOW is up to it's highest level in 5 years yesterday and anyone holding Gold this morning should see a jump (I think?) -

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers - interesting.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 07, 2012, 08:24:05 am
Not to mention what sort of "jobs" they're talking about. They count "government jobs" and subsidized "green" jobs, etc. the same as anything productive. The numbers don't really mean much when you consider what all is left out of the calculation.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 07, 2012, 08:36:20 am
Not to mention what sort of "jobs" they're talking about. They count "government jobs" and subsidized "green" jobs, etc. the same as anything productive. The numbers don't really mean much when you consider what all is left out of the calculation.

So true. If this number is correct:

Record 88,921,000 Americans Not in Labor Force119,000 Fewer Employed in August Than July

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/record-88921000-americans-not-labor-force-119000-fewer-employed-august-july (http://cnsnews.com/news/article/record-88921000-americans-not-labor-force-119000-fewer-employed-august-july)

Quote
The Labor Department counts a person as not in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16 years old, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks.

The department counts a person as in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and either do have a job or have actively looked for one in the last four weeks.

One just has to wonder. Well - maybe not.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: sharp_shepherd on September 07, 2012, 09:41:44 am
Record 88,921,000 Americans +1

I just became the +1.  With the economy totally demolishing my customer base my wife and I decided that it is best if I stayed home and cared for/started homeschool our 19 month old daughter.  I had been running a successful (and profitable) business for 12 of the last 13 years but not it just isn't worth it.  We were able to significantly reduce our debts and get prepared for the collapse. 

While today is my first day of daddy's day care some of my customers will continue to use me around MY SCHEDULE and pay in CASH.  I'm sure I will still be very busy running around after my kid. 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Lonewolf72 on September 08, 2012, 11:35:10 pm
Enjoy 'Daddy Daycare'  :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 09, 2012, 07:07:26 am
While today is my first day of daddy's day care some of my customers will continue to use me around MY SCHEDULE and pay in CASH.  I'm sure I will still be very busy running around after my kid.

My youngest son does the Daddy Day Care thing for his two boys... The first day I called him and asked how he was doing. His response? "I have nyquil and duct tape, and I know how to use them."  :)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on September 09, 2012, 12:46:58 pm
I know you're joking about the Nyquil and the Duct Tape.....

But nowadays jokes like that can get one's family a midnight visit from the Hobnails.

About the Unemployment Figures.....

If it was High Noon on a Cloudless Midsummer's Day and the Government said the Sun was Shining, I'd grab a Flashlight and go outside to look.....

I know the game is crooked--I just can't always see what tricks they're using to cheat.

So how are they Cooking the Unemployment Numbers?

{Typo had it: "How are they Coking The Books?" Maybe there's an answer there..... :thrshocker: }

I get what Mamaliberty said about Government Jobs.....

They create no new Wealth and when the Economy is very sick anyway, they aren't even sustainable in the long term.....

But I can't believe that's the only thing they're doing to Cheat and Cook the Books.

In fact, how are they keeping the Official Inflation Figures so low?

I know that Money resembles a Hyraulic Fluid circulating at High Pressure. Because it flows instead of sits, Bernoulli's Equation applies much more than Pascal's Formula.

The System is already Highly Turbulent and Chaotic.

The System has a Score or more Leaks--at least Leaks for Value, since the number of Dollars continues to rise.....

But Modern Electronic Banking seems to have Speeded Up the Rate of Flow very dramatically--making many of the old "General Indicators" of what's coming next even less useful than before--and allowing some Abberations and Statistically Unlikely Spikes to persist far longer than they once could.

But still, there is no such thing as Perpetual Motion--at least it has never been observed in the Material World.....

If Taxers continue to Drain(The Leeches!) out more Value than The Producers Inject into the System, at some point the System grinds to a halt.

Then it has to be Jump-Started again--and we know what a long and fumbling process that has been Historically.

Sit through Decades of Depression and/or endure various degrees of Martial Law and Collectivism or Try a Free Market.....

While we philosophically favor Laisse Faire, it has to be admitted that even a Partially (Mostly)Free Market can create widespread Prosperity if it isn't bled too often and too much.....

But even with a return to a Free(Enough)Market and no Hobnail Dictators rising from the Tumble-Down Ruins.....

It still might take decades to recover.

But like I say, what exactly is causing the discrepancy between Current Economic Statistics and what we hold to be "Self Evident"?


.....RVM45            :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 09, 2012, 12:55:22 pm
Statistics. Specifically : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (which I was not aware that Twain was recycling : http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm (http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm))
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on September 09, 2012, 01:48:48 pm
Statistics. Specifically : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (which I was not aware that Twain was recycling : http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm (http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm))

This was most enlightening...

Quote
It is possible that in its original form the quotation referred to expert witnesses rather than statistics

So it would more correctly read:

The liar simple, the damned liar, and the (paid) expert witness.

Makes this far more useful and accurate!

A point I have been trying to make about several items as of late.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 09, 2012, 08:04:30 pm
(warning : auto rolling thing)

The global debt clock
Our interactive overview of government debt across the planet  :  http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock (http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock)

Quote
The clock is ticking. Every second, it seems, someone in the world takes on more debt. The idea of a debt clock for an individual nation is familiar to anyone who has been to Times Square in New York, where the American public shortfall is revealed. Our clock (updated September 2012) shows the global figure for almost all government debts in dollar terms.

Does it matter? After all, world governments owe the money to their own citizens, not to the Martians. But the rising total is important for two reasons. First, when debt rises faster than economic output (as it has been doing in recent years), higher government debt implies more state interference in the economy and higher taxes in the future. Second, debt must be rolled over at regular intervals. This creates a recurring popularity test for individual governments, rather as reality TV show contestants face a public phone vote every week. Fail that vote, as various euro-zone governments have done, and the country (and its neighbours) can be plunged into crisis.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on September 09, 2012, 10:14:28 pm
No doubt y'all have noticed that food product sizes have decreased. When I first took notice it was somewhat bearable or at least I could stick my head in the ground about it. However, it's shocking just how much food product sizes have diminished. For example, when I have been following some *old* recipes lately that call for say 12 oz and I used to get that size, I can now only find say 7 oz or 18 oz sizes available. It's disheartening to say the least...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 10, 2012, 05:43:09 pm
On the 31st of August, this was announced:

Quote
Japan plans to cut state spending, could run out of money in a month

Today : Japan minister Matsushita found dead at home in possible suicide : http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html)

Quote
Japanese financial services minister Tadahiro Matsushita was found dead at his residence in Tokyo on Monday, police said, adding they suspect the country's top financial regulator committed suicide.

Very sad.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 10, 2012, 06:03:45 pm
On the 31st of August, this was announced:

Quote
Japan plans to cut state spending, could run out of money in a month

Today : Japan minister Matsushita found dead at home in possible suicide : http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html)

Quote
Japanese financial services minister Tadahiro Matsushita was found dead at his residence in Tokyo on Monday, police said, adding they suspect the country's top financial regulator committed suicide.

Very sad.
Once ordinary citizens realize the implications of a world-wide mega depression, they too will commit suicide. I would expect a 25% reduction in population in the major industrialized nations within 1 month of a total fiscal collapse. Sad, but true. (IMO)

This Japanese finance minister apparently did the honorable thing. (as per Japanese culture)

Americans may find suicide shameful, but In Japan, suicide is seen as an honorable way to alleviate shame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seppuku

Quote
Seppuku (切腹?, "stomach-cutting") is a form of Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment. Seppuku was originally reserved only for samurai. Part of the samurai bushido honor code, seppuku was either used voluntarily by samurai to die with honor rather than fall into the hands of their enemies (and likely suffer torture), or as a form of capital punishment for samurai who had committed serious offenses, or performed for other reasons that had brought shame to them. The ceremonial disembowelment, which is usually part of a more elaborate ritual and performed in front of spectators, consists of plunging a short blade, traditionally a tantō, into the abdomen and moving the blade from left to right in a slicing motion .
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 10, 2012, 06:31:30 pm
Quote
Once ordinary citizens realize the implications of a world-wide mega depression, they too will commit suicide. I would expect a 25% reduction in population in the major industrialized nations within 1 month of a total fiscal collapse. Sad, but true. (IMO)

Really? That would indeed be a huge number.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 10, 2012, 07:24:49 pm
Quote
Once ordinary citizens realize the implications of a world-wide mega depression, they too will commit suicide. I would expect a 25% reduction in population in the major industrialized nations within 1 month of a total fiscal collapse. Sad, but true. (IMO)

Really? That would indeed be a huge number.

I have talked to people before about what to expect in a worst case scenario. (TEOTWAWKI event) A common response is- " I'd rather die than go back to living in the 1800's." or "I'd kill myself if that happened."
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on September 11, 2012, 10:07:29 am
On the 31st of August, this was announced:

Quote
Japan plans to cut state spending, could run out of money in a month

Today : Japan minister Matsushita found dead at home in possible suicide : http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120910x1.html)

Quote
Japanese financial services minister Tadahiro Matsushita was found dead at his residence in Tokyo on Monday, police said, adding they suspect the country's top financial regulator committed suicide.

Very sad.
Once ordinary citizens realize the implications of a world-wide mega depression, they too will commit suicide. I would expect a 25% reduction in population in the major industrialized nations within 1 month of a total fiscal collapse. Sad, but true. (IMO)

This Japanese finance minister apparently did the honorable thing. (as per Japanese culture)

Americans may find suicide shameful, but In Japan, suicide is seen as an honorable way to alleviate shame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seppuku

Quote
Seppuku (切腹?, "stomach-cutting") is a form of Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment. Seppuku was originally reserved only for samurai. Part of the samurai bushido honor code, seppuku was either used voluntarily by samurai to die with honor rather than fall into the hands of their enemies (and likely suffer torture), or as a form of capital punishment for samurai who had committed serious offenses, or performed for other reasons that had brought shame to them. The ceremonial disembowelment, which is usually part of a more elaborate ritual and performed in front of spectators, consists of plunging a short blade, traditionally a tantō, into the abdomen and moving the blade from left to right in a slicing motion .

Didn't the suicidee (?) have a 'second' to decapitate them as soon as they finished the cut? Or is that just Hollywood?

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 11, 2012, 11:01:28 am
Quote
Didn't the suicidee (?) have a 'second' to decapitate them as soon as they finished the cut? Or is that just Hollywood?

I don't know. It appears he was found before an article was to appear in a tabloid about an affair. http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/international/japan-minister-suicide-ahead-of-affair-claim-reports/543757 (http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/international/japan-minister-suicide-ahead-of-affair-claim-reports/543757)

Quote
Tadahiro Matsushita was found hanging at his Tokyo home on Monday, the Mainichi Shimbun and other media reported, adding letters addressed to his wife, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and cabinet members were also discovered.

I do not judge. One wonders why so many times when a "figurehead" of some sort investigates others - people start investigating the investigator.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-10/japan-financial-services-minister-matsushita-dies-at-73.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-10/japan-financial-services-minister-matsushita-dies-at-73.html)
Quote
Japanese Financial Services Minister Tadahiro Matsushita, who since taking the post in June led a crackdown on insider trading that triggered resignations of the top two executives at Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604), has died. He was 73.

I would never be able to run for any type of office or an investigation. Goodness - even the skeletons in my closet have skeletons!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 12, 2012, 04:42:29 pm
Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate Pledge to 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-12/fed-seen-starting-qe3-while-extending-rate-pledge-to-2015.html

Quote
Two rounds of bond purchases totaling $2.3 trillion have failed to breathe life into the labor market, which Bernanke said last month is a grave concern. That means policy makers will probably announce a new open-ended plan tied to a sustained improvement in the economy rather than specify an amount of purchases and an end-date, according to 32 of the 73 economists in the survey. Twenty-two expect a fixed duration and amount.
The FOMC plans to release a statement tomorrow at about 12:30 p.m. after a two-day meeting. At 2 p.m. the Fed will release policy makers forecasts for unemployment, inflation and the expected path of the federal funds rate over the next several years. Bernanke plans to hold a press conference at about 2:15 p.m.

Quote
Risk of Slump
Some Fed officials have spoken so enthusiastically about new easing that a decision to keep policy unchanged tomorrow could trigger a slump in markets, said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
Disappointing the markets doesnt seem like a good strategy, but its not obvious how much more GDP to expect if they fulfill market expectations for more action, said Soss, a former New York Fed economist.
Central bankers are also poised to extend until 2015 their forecast that economic conditions will probably warrant holding interest rates near zero through late 2014. Sixty-eight percent of economists surveyed expect an extension at tomorrows meeting.

The "cartels" controlling the precious metal (PM's) prices laid a smack-down on prices today by manipulating the "paper" market. However, the prices almost immediately rebounded. It seems to me that they are running scared and are trying to cover their short position. The cartels must be really pissed that the investment demand is too strong for such manipulation right now. They did this because they are suspecting that when Bernanke opens his mouth tomorrow, that the prices of PM's will skyrocket. It didn't work though! :laugh: Usually, Bernanke opens his big fat mouth on Friday's, so that the market can have a chance to cool over the weekend. (PM markets are closed from Friday evening until Sunday evening) I hope you all have purchased some PM's lately! :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 12, 2012, 04:55:41 pm
(PM markets are closed from Friday evening until Sunday evening) I hope you all have purchased some PM's lately! :mellow:

I've never bought any, and don't intend to. I do take them in trade at times.

I just wonder why anyone of us would participate in this "market" thing? Why allow oneself to be manipulated that way?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 12, 2012, 07:12:36 pm
(PM markets are closed from Friday evening until Sunday evening) I hope you all have purchased some PM's lately! :mellow:

I've never bought any, and don't intend to. I do take them in trade at times.

I just wonder why anyone of us would participate in this "market" thing? Why allow oneself to be manipulated that way?
Their grip on the PM markets is loosening. There will eventually be a HUGE break-out in prices. I intend to ride that wave. Me keeping my 401k and continuing to pay into it is hoping for the best. Me buying PM's is preparing for the worst. In a post collapse world, there will be a need for monetary exchange. Barter doesn't always work. I know, I know, PM's are worthless in the face of a food crisis, but in the rebuilding phase, they will be invaluable. Also, PM's are the best way to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth in our ever inflated currency. I know you don't see the upside of owning PM's ML, but I hope you do some research on the subject. You just might change your mind.  :dontknow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Mountain Prepper on September 12, 2012, 08:17:03 pm

I would never be able to run for any type of office or an investigation. Goodness - even the skeletons in my closet have skeletons!

The skeletons in my closet have both photos and video....  ^_^
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 13, 2012, 05:56:43 pm
Fed: Quantitative easing now, quantitative easing tomorrow, quantitative easing forever
by Kyle Wingfield

http://blogs.ajc.com/kyle-wingfield/2012/09/13/fed-quantitative-easing-now-quantitative-easing-tomorrow-quantitative-easing-forever/

Quote
The Federal Reserves Open Market Committee today said it will keep trying to print money until the economy recovers. In short, the Fed said it will increase its purchases of mortgage-backed securities by $40 billion a month until employment improves. So, indefinitely. Combined with other maneuvers, the Fed said its asset holdings will increase by about $85 billion a month through the end of this year. And the money-printing may not end there; from the Feds statement:

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. (emphasis added)

This is not what people mean when they talk about wealth creation. In fact, its very nearly the opposite of that: The inevitable devaluing of the dollar the prices of gold, silver and several other commodities spiked in the minutes following the Feds 12:30 announcement means our savings will lose value. This is the destruction of future wealth in the hopes of creating some current economic growth. In that respect, it is no different from increasing the budget deficit even further to fund even more Keynesian spending.

Will it work? Ask Japan; theyve been trying such quantitative easing since 2001, without much positive effect. This is our third round of it in the past four years.

The Fed already had said it would keep short-term interest rates at or near zero until 2014. Today, it said that policy was likely to remain in place until mid-2015, which is three years from now and six years after the nominal end of the Great Recession. The new bond-buying comes on top of that.

Folks, this is what pushing the panic button looks like. Its unclear what, if anything, comes between the panic button and the white flag.

Sorry..... I quoted the entire article. Partly because it was short and partly because I really couldn't find any smaller sections of it that would convey the message accurately.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again- We are no longer in the "beginning of the end". We are now at "the END of the end"! Get your shit together and be prepared to hunker down.

As a side note- Silver increased $1.37 on the day, closing at $34.68 :mellow:

Here are a few other related articles-

Bernanke Unleashes The Path To New All Time Highs In Precious Metals
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bernanke-unleashes-path-new-all-time-highs-precious-metals

$150 Silver & An Ocean Of Paper Money To Flood The System
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/12_%24150_Silver_%26_An_Ocean_Of_Paper_Money_To_Flood_The_System.html

Census: Middle class shrinks to an all-time low
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/poverty-was-flat-in-2011-percentage-without-health-insurance-fell/2012/09/12/0e04632c-fc29-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story.html


NOTE- All of these articles were found at- http://www.coinflation.com/

Modified to add the links to the other articles.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 06:08:50 am
Quote
The Federal Reserves Open Market Committee today said it will keep trying to print money until the economy recovers.

The floggings will continue until morale improves...

Or... we'll burn houses until everyone has a place to live...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 14, 2012, 08:24:12 am
In regards to QE4 (they don't count the "twist" done earlier) - did anyone do the math and figure that $85 B x 4 months until the end of the year = $340 Billion. Then $480 Billion next year and the following year. (insert number, carry the number) = $1.3 Trillion?

How can that be seen as a good thing?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 09:05:54 am
How can that be seen as a good thing?

Easy... if you are on the receiving end of it...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 14, 2012, 09:26:05 am
How can that be seen as a good thing?

Easy... if you are on the receiving end of it...

I'm really confused because there is no "receiving" end. This version of QE just expands the circulating loop of digital cash in the cesspool.

 Help - I'm just the Crazy Goat Lady...enlighten me!   :huh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 10:16:20 am
I'm really confused because there is no "receiving" end. This version of QE just expands the circulating loop of digital cash in the cesspool.

Of course there is a receiving end. None of this would be happening otherwise. How do you think this "money" makes it to the circulating loop?

Who gets this "new money" first? The big banks and "bailout" corporate mobsters. They always have. They get the "first pass" benefit of it, before the inflationary forces can take effect. The "new cash" can be used at the same value level as the "old" stuff, however distorted that value was. The people who receive this new cash next, the folks who get the loans, sell the bankers and CEOs the Caribbean island, whatever, take a loss eventually when they turn around and use it to buy something else.

And on down the line... each one who receives the new cash gets a little less out of it as the inflationary forces expand and the "money" eventually vanishes into the cesspool of the general so-called economy that becomes more and more depressed with each round. But the guys on top got THEIRS.

Which is why they want to continue playing this game as long as they can get away with it. The guys on top are making a killing from the "first pass," but each one buys a little less. It's like needing a higher dose to get the same buzz from each subsequent hit of your drug of choice.

The real puzzle is why so many ordinary people continue to think this is even remotely a good idea. When THAT music stops, then we'll see some fireworks. 

 
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on September 14, 2012, 10:21:22 am
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.
- Henry Ford

We can only hope The People figure out what happened.  Many of us work to inform. We might get lucky.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on September 14, 2012, 10:54:44 am
We can only hope The People figure out what happened.  Many of us work to inform. We might get lucky.

I keep talking but I get either blank looks or a 'wow, that sucks...  Hey!  Did you see the game last night?'

As long as the bread and circuses continue, the mob won't care what happens.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 10:56:53 am
As long as the bread and circuses continue, the mob won't care what happens.

Well, they WILL "care," eventually anyway... but most will blame the wrong people for their problems and have all the wrong ideas about how to fix it - as usual.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 14, 2012, 11:04:18 am
ML - I thought you meant "you" as in Joe Normal vs .gov Lobby/Banking firms.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 12:54:58 pm
ML - I thought you meant "you" as in Joe Normal vs .gov Lobby/Banking firms.

Sorry, dear. I figured it was clear who the "you" was.... The bankers and CEOs who get the first pass most definitely think this is a good thing. sigh
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 14, 2012, 02:57:48 pm
ML - I'm slow on the uptake sometimes  :rolleyes:

Egan-Jones downgrades U.S. rating on QE3 move

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/egan-jones-downgrades-us-rating-on-qe3-move-2012-09-14 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/egan-jones-downgrades-us-rating-on-qe3-move-2012-09-14)
Quote
Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said Friday it downgraded its U.S. sovereign rating to AA- from AA on concerns that the Fed's new round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will hurt the U.S. economy.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on September 14, 2012, 03:09:01 pm
Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said Friday it downgraded its U.S. sovereign rating to AA- from AA on concerns that the Fed's new round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will hurt the U.S. economy.
[/quote]

Makes it pretty clear that hurting the US economy doesn't worry the bankers or the administration much...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 17, 2012, 09:34:55 am
Oregon to Vote on Changing Unique Tax Refund : http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/oregon-to-vote-on-changing-unique-tax-refund-85899417602 (http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/oregon-to-vote-on-changing-unique-tax-refund-85899417602)

Quote
For many years, Oregon has been the only state in the country where tax revenue that exceeds what the state estimated it would collect is automatically refunded to taxpayers. Much of Oregons political leadership has complained that these kicker refunds make it much more difficult for the state to save money in good times to use in bad ones. Now, a November ballot initiative might finally overhaul Oregons kicker, but some of those same political leaders worry that it isnt the right approach.

Oregon actually has two separate refund mechanisms: a personal kicker and a corporate kicker. At the end of the states two-year budget biennium, if revenue from individuals comes in 2 percent above the states forecasts, the additional money is returned to them, proportional to their tax bills. The corporate kicker works the same way, but for corporate income tax revenue.

The ballot initiative sponsored by Our Oregon, a coalition of public employee unions, would redirect money from the corporate kicker to K-12 education. Scott Moore, the groups communications director, argues that the states unusually large class sizes and unusually short school year are signs that schools desperately need the money.

I'm sure there will be a "lock box" option, "redistribution" to those most in need, and some other such.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 19, 2012, 03:32:57 pm
Prepare For A 15% Food Price Surge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/prepare-15-food-price-surge-rabobank-warns

Quote
And who will be the biggest loser once the market starts purchasing pork futures with both hands? Why the same country whose central bank resolutely refuses to join the global easing carnival, precisely for fears of what may happen to pork prices: arguably the most critical component of the Chinese inflation picture. Recall that when it comes to measuring inflation, not everyone is like the US, with a food weighing of just under 8% of CPI: India and China are far more susceptible to food price shocks, as the food component of CPI is 47% and 31%, respectively.

Furthermore, in China pork is by far the most consumed "red meat." A surge in the price of pork as global inventories plunge could well result in the kind of food protests that toppled various regimes in the MENA region in the spring of 2011. But don't worry: this too, like everything else, will be fixed by the central planners. After all, the VIX by then will likely be in the low-single digits at current rates of artificial volatility collapse, and all shall be well.


Kinda makes you think. During our current currency war, who's winning? What other weapons will be deployed? Which player will lash out first when their backs are against the wall? Or....What seems to me as the most important....Who cares?

Ahhhh.......Imperialism at it's finest..... :BangHead:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on September 20, 2012, 08:32:01 am
Japan again QEs : Auto loading video warning

http://www.ibtimes.com/asian-markets-decline-weak-japan-data-793570 (http://www.ibtimes.com/asian-markets-decline-weak-japan-data-793570)

Quote
On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan announced stimulus measures in an attempt to rejuvenate the countrys economy. The BoJ said that it was increasing the size of its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) to 80 trillion yen. Meanwhile, the central bank left the policy interest rate in the current range of zero to 0.1 percent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on October 03, 2012, 02:36:29 pm
I cashed in an 11 year-old savings bond. Prepare to put on your envy cap when you learn of the accured interest. Drum roll, please..... $36.40. I know, I know. I'm rollin' in it!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 03, 2012, 02:53:17 pm
I cashed in an 11 year-old savings bond. Prepare to put on your envy cap when you learn of the accured interest. Drum roll, please..... $36.40. I know, I know. I'm rollin' in it!
So....You lost money? You know....Counting for inflation?

Silver would have been a better purchase....I know....I know....Hind-sight is always 20/20. :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on October 03, 2012, 03:01:33 pm
I didn't lose any money. I received the face value of the bond, and the $36.40 was the interest accured :) Besides, I was not the one who purchased the savings bond so it was all a gain for me!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on October 03, 2012, 03:22:13 pm
I didn't lose any money. I received the face value of the bond, and the $36.40 was the interest accured :) Besides, I was not the one who purchased the savings bond so it was all a gain for me!

Moonbeam,

You're doing better than I am. My late father had some investments that paid his way
until he passed away. A short time later the biggest investment became illiquid, and
stopped paying interest. We can't sell it, we don't get any income, and each monthly
statement documents a little more value melting away. It's frustrating, but as I reminded
my family, essential it "worked" as it supported dad as long as he need it. If we get anything
out of after that, it's gravy.

I think the part that puts sand in my gears, is that the way the tax laws are written,
we can't even take the loss out of our taxable income.

Bear

PS: It probably doesn't need to be pointed out to this group, but our tax laws are
      completely arbitrary and inconsistent.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on October 03, 2012, 05:57:35 pm
I didn't lose any money. I received the face value of the bond, and the $36.40 was the interest accured :) Besides, I was not the one who purchased the savings bond so it was all a gain for me!
I was just saying that over the course of 11 years, the bond most likely "lost" any of the interest to inflation, over the same time period.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 28, 2012, 07:18:19 am
Meanwhile In Japan... : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-27/meanwhile-japan (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-27/meanwhile-japan)
Quote
The only source of "capital" left - BOJ monetization. The only problem, of course, is that Japan already has well over 200% of national debt to GDP. And that's the smaller problem. The bigger problem: even the smallest increase in prevailing interest rates, and the entire Japanese house of cards topples.

Of particular interest - the last chart I cannot put here:
Quote
But how many have seen this chart showing global sovereign debt as a percentage of total government revenues?


Japan @ 2000% ?

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on October 29, 2012, 11:25:59 am
Here it is, but I don't understand it.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/05/Debt%20to%20Revenue_1.jpg)

Not only do I not understand how Japan can have 19 times as much debt as revenue, I don't see how the US has only 4 times debt to revenue.  Annual federal revenues (http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/fed_revenue_2013USrn) are about 3 teraFRNs, official federal debt (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np) is 16 teraFRNs, for a ratio greater than five. 

The net present value of federal obligations (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-08-08/blink-u-s-debt-just-grew-by-11-trillion.html) is 222 teraFRNs, up 11 trillion since last year, for a debt/revenue ratio of north of 75, or 7500%.

So I suspect that they are accounting for Japan's debts in a way that differs from the official US debt.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on October 29, 2012, 11:50:11 am
After you go off a cliff... does it really matter if the drop is 2,000 feet, or only 200?

If you loan money to a bum with no assets, no prospects and no morals... does it matter if you loaned him $100. or a million? I mean... matter as far as potential to get it back. And if you were dumb enough to loan him a million, over and over and over...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on October 29, 2012, 12:21:34 pm
Quote
Here it is, but I don't understand it.
For once I'm in the Majority on something - feels weird  ^_^.

What is confusing about this ZH presentation is the lack of date on some charts, lack of actual relationship btwn the charts themselves.

That said:

I understand with the Energy imports rising due to last year's earthquake/tsunami and the 2010 assumption of all pensions payout/pension assets (i.e. those would be included in the Sovereign Debt rating referenced)  by the Japanese Financial arm of their .gov that things would look wonky in the extreme - I however was surprised by the increase from 200% in 2009  (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8a03a61e-c585-11de-9b3b-00144feab49a.html#axzz2Ai2GienI)to 2000% the following year.

Quote
After you go off a cliff... does it really matter if the drop is 2,000 feet, or only 200?

Well - If I owe 200% of what I own - there would appear to be a way to repay that within a time frame that could be followed through on. However if I owed 2000% of what I own, the interest would most likely bury my budget beyond what I could conceivably do within my lifetime.
----

Then again - I'm making the assumption that any .gov would have the impetus to actually follow through with the whole "Debt Repayment Plan" without just whipping out the printing presses.  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on October 29, 2012, 12:42:28 pm
Well - If I owe 200% of what I own - there would appear to be a way to repay that within a time frame that could be followed through on

I was thinking about literally going off a cliff.  As in DEAD. The difference between 200 and 2,000 feet is pretty much irrelevant for the dead guy.

And yes, a 2000% debt is pretty darn close to that. I'd say that the lender is not likely to get anything at all.... no matter who they are or why they made the loan.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on October 29, 2012, 06:10:00 pm
After you go off a cliff... does it really matter if the drop is 2,000 feet, or only 200? ...

Well, in a matter of speaking, yes: If you fall of a 2,000 foot cliff, you have more time
to think about how really stupid you were to get into that situation. OTOH, if you're talking
about end results, then no: splat is splat.

You're welcome. :rolleyes:

Bear

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 03, 2012, 08:05:24 pm
Everything old is new again - fascinating (Circa 1819 http://thehistorybox.com/ny_city/panics/panics_article2a.htm (http://thehistorybox.com/ny_city/panics/panics_article2a.htm)

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Many state banks collapse, and enormous amounts of Western real estate are foreclosed by the Bank of the United States. But there are more fundamental causes for the crisis, of which the credit collapse is only a consequence and a symptom. The swollen demand for the products of American farms and factories, resulting from scant supply of such goods at home and abroad during the war, is now satisfied: the market is declining. As prices fall, money becomes difficult to come by, but the habit of borrowing, formed in the expansive years, cannot be shaken. Those who insist on a return to specie-hard money, are seen as turning the clock back.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on November 04, 2012, 06:12:03 am
The swollen demand for the products of American farms and factories, resulting from scant supply of such goods at home and abroad during the war, is now satisfied: the market is declining.

That is utter nonsense. The only problem is the almost universal interference by government with the free market. The governments of the world consume vast amounts of the wealth (and life) created by the people, leaving them much too poor to purchase goods and services they need - at any price too often - even where such goods and services can still be produced or found at all from any source. The demand and the supply simply need to be left free to find their own equilibrium, which will be ever changing, of course.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 05, 2012, 12:52:33 pm
These particular bums have one asset.

Everyone who buys government bonds, which is to say who willingly lends money to a government, expects to get paid back for only one reason:

The entity issuing the bonds has the ability to beat its subjects to extract payments.  No private party can offer a similar guarantee.  That's why government bonds are considered "safe." They are shockingly immoral but they get repaid (and ever new notes added) because the cage, the club, and the gun, wielded by an army of willing thugs, have proven to be a very effective means of extracting funds.

Peace,

Silver
After you go off a cliff... does it really matter if the drop is 2,000 feet, or only 200?

If you loan money to a bum with no assets, no prospects and no morals... does it matter if you loaned him $100. or a million? I mean... matter as far as potential to get it back. And if you were dumb enough to loan him a million, over and over and over...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on November 06, 2012, 12:14:25 pm
"These particular bums have one asset.

Everyone who buys government bonds, which is to say who willingly lends money to a government, expects to get paid back for only one reason:

The entity issuing the bonds has the ability to beat its subjects to extract payments.  No private party can offer a similar guarantee.  That's why government bonds are considered "safe." They are shockingly immoral but they get repaid (and ever new notes added) because the cage, the club, and the gun, wielded by an army of willing thugs, have proven to be a very effective means of extracting funds.

Peace,

Silver"

"After you go off a cliff... does it really matter if the drop is 2,000 feet, or only 200?

If you loan money to a bum with no assets, no prospects and no morals... does it matter if you loaned him $100. or a million? I mean... matter as far as potential to get it back. And if you were dumb enough to loan him a million, over and over and over..."


This Reminds me of Howard Ruff's oft repeated Axiom:

"Don't worry About the Banks going Broke.....

"Don't Worry About Social Security Going Broke.....

"Don't Worry About the Government Going Broke.....

{and by implication}

"Don't Worry About Bonds Going Broke.....

"They have The Printing Presses.

"Ain't Gonna Happen.

"Worry About The Money Going Broke!"

By this he meant that the Currency could be Inflated until Worthlessas in the Weimar Republic.

I have no Doubt that the Laws of Reality Still Apply.

The Government can't continue to cause Actual Resources Disappear into an Economic Black Hole Forever, without there being Severe Consequences.....

However, I do wonder if they can't Keep Juggling Enough Balls at One TimeIn the age of Electronic Moneyto postpone a Weimar Style Hyper-Inflation Indefinitely.

Maybe the Source of Collapse*The Initiation of the Cascading Event


{*Or Worse: Radical Restructuring to Mandate both Lower Expectations And Much Less Freedom.}


.....RVM45                 :mellow: :thumbsup: :mellow:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 16, 2012, 01:25:04 pm
FHA projected to exhaust reserves, could need bailout : http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-fha-federal-housing-administration-bailout-20121116,0,1915053.story (http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-fha-federal-housing-administration-bailout-20121116,0,1915053.story)

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The Federal Housing Administration, which has played a crucial role in stabilizing the housing market, said it ended September with $16.3 billion in projected losses -- a possible prelude to a taxpayer bailout.

The precarious financial situation could force the FHA, which has been self-funded through mortgage insurance premiums since it was created during the Great Depression, to tap the U.S. Treasury to stay afloat.

The agency said a determination on whether it needs a bailout won't come until next year.

The FHA is required to maintain enough cash reserves to cover losses on the mortgages it insures. But in its annual actuarial report to Congress, the agency said a slower-than-anticipated housing market recovery has led its reserves to fall $16.3 billion below anticipated losses.

The FHA's cash reserves aren't supposed to drop below 2% of projected losses. They ended the 2012 fiscal year at -1.44%, down from the seriously low level of 0.24% at the end of 2011.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Bear on November 16, 2012, 01:38:06 pm
FHA projected to exhaust reserves, could need bailout : http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-fha-federal-housing-administration-bailout-20121116,0,1915053.story (http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-fha-federal-housing-administration-bailout-20121116,0,1915053.story)

Quote
The Federal Housing Administration, which has played a crucial role in stabilizing the housing market, said it ended September with $16.3 billion in projected losses -- a possible prelude to a taxpayer bailout.

The precarious financial situation could force the FHA, which has been self-funded through mortgage insurance premiums since it was created during the Great Depression, to tap the U.S. Treasury to stay afloat.

The agency said a determination on whether it needs a bailout won't come until next year.

The FHA is required to maintain enough cash reserves to cover losses on the mortgages it insures. But in its annual actuarial report to Congress, the agency said a slower-than-anticipated housing market recovery has led its reserves to fall $16.3 billion below anticipated losses.

The FHA's cash reserves aren't supposed to drop below 2% of projected losses. They ended the 2012 fiscal year at -1.44%, down from the seriously low level of 0.24% at the end of 2011.

Well, that explains a few things.

I have an FHA mortgage loan, and the FHA is happy to get me a refi at a lower rate - with an increased insurance premium.
It means a net savings to me, so I'm going for it. I thought they have been overtaken by institutional insanity, but now it makes sense.

Bear
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 28, 2012, 01:05:02 pm
Fiscal Cliff: Why Congress Might Have to Mess with the 401(k) :
http://business.time.com/2012/11/28/fiscal-cliff-why-congress-might-have-to-mess-with-the-401k/#ixzz2DXsvNN1o
 (http://business.time.com/2012/11/28/fiscal-cliff-why-congress-might-have-to-mess-with-the-401k/#ixzz2DXsvNN1o)
Quote
One of the earliest fears about tax-favored savings accounts like IRAs and 401(k) plans was that when this pool of savings grew large enough Congress would not be able to resist tapping it to help solve the nations debt problems. Were about to find out if those fearspersistent for three decadeshave been justified.

Everything including the sacred mortgage deduction is on the table as lawmakers wrestle with the fiscal cliff, a year-end avalanche of scheduled spending cuts and tax increases. With a combined $10 trillion sitting in IRAs and 401(k) plans, retirement accounts make a juicy target. Much of this money has never been taxed, and under current law never will be.


Gee  - Wonder where this was proposed (and adopted) within the last decade or two....?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 28, 2012, 02:07:16 pm
Fitch downgrades Argentina and predicts default : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9707546/Fitch-downgrades-Argentina-and-predicts-default.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9707546/Fitch-downgrades-Argentina-and-predicts-default.html)

Quote
Fitch cut its long-term rating for Argentina to "CC" from "B," a downgrade of five notches, and cut its short-term rating to "C" from "B". A rating of "C" is one step above default, AP reported.

US judge Thomas Griesa of Manhattan federal court last week ordered Argentina to set aside $1.3bn for certain investors in its bonds by December 15, even as Argentina pursues appeals.

Those investors don't want to go along with a debt restructuring that followed an Argentine default in 2002. If Argentina is forced to pay in full, other holders of debt totaling more than $11bn are expected to demand immediate payment as well.

That's billions! Lots of money! Like - I don't know - close to Trillions ! Breaking news changing amazing stuff - should be top headlines - right? Nope - fiscal trip we're on seems to be headlining today. Durn - guess I'm just uninformed...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on November 30, 2012, 02:25:12 pm
Quote
Obama's negotiators also sought the ability to raise the nation's borrowing limit unilaterally.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-usa-fiscal-offer-idUSBRE8AT02C20121130 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-usa-fiscal-offer-idUSBRE8AT02C20121130)

Who needs that pesky Congress.......
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on November 30, 2012, 03:25:44 pm

Who needs that pesky Congress.......

They have the mechanism to eliminate the problem, of course. They've just not had the will or the guts to even attempt it in a very long time.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on November 30, 2012, 11:46:34 pm

Who needs that pesky Congress.......

They have the mechanism to eliminate the problem, of course. They've just not had the will or the guts to even attempt it in a very long time.

The same could be said of we the people.

The good news is that I think the time is coming... and we are in that unique position of getting to see and probably participate in the show.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on January 20, 2013, 09:02:23 pm
US taps pension fund to avoid passing debt limit : http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20130115&id=15997915 (http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20130115&id=15997915)

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Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the government has begun borrowing from the federal employee pension fund to keep operating without surpassing its debt limit.

This is 5 days old - where is the "Oh Poop" moment from FedPensionsPeeps???
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Wyomiles on January 22, 2013, 03:16:28 pm
401K's next!
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on January 23, 2013, 07:15:34 am
Quote
The government reached its borrowing limit on Dec. 31, but began using bookkeeping maneuvers to keep from surpassing it.

When private companies do it, it's called 'cooking the books' and people go to jail.  When the gov't does it, it is business as usual.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: mutti on February 12, 2013, 11:16:32 am
Northern Virgina : SB 1313 Has passed Senate - moved to House : Allows Tax increase of 1% without voter approval...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-state-of-nova/post/bill-to-allow-nova-counties-to-impose-one-percent-income-tax-without-public-vote-passes-va-senate/2013/02/12/282dcf04-74a1-11e2-8f84-3e4b513b1a13_blog.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-state-of-nova/post/bill-to-allow-nova-counties-to-impose-one-percent-income-tax-without-public-vote-passes-va-senate/2013/02/12/282dcf04-74a1-11e2-8f84-3e4b513b1a13_blog.html)
Quote
This income taxing authority actually already exists in Virginia law, with one important condition: It must be approved by a public referendum. The new law would eliminate that referendum, allowing a new income tax to be imposed simply by the local city council or board of supervisors passing a new ordinance.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Moonbeam on June 24, 2014, 08:38:27 am
The content inside the food package is shrinking - though the packaging isn't changing. Hmm... like we wouldn't notice?!? In some ways I wish I had photo proof, but I've had bigger things to concentrate on so...
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on June 24, 2014, 09:54:55 am
US taps pension fund to avoid passing debt limit : http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20130115&id=15997915 (http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20130115&id=15997915)

Quote
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the government has begun borrowing from the federal employee pension fund to keep operating without surpassing its debt limit.

This is 5 days old - where is the "Oh Poop" moment from FedPensionsPeeps???

Article is gone.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on November 20, 2015, 03:33:42 pm
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index Just Collapsed To An All-Time Record Low

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-baltic-dry-shipping-index-just-collapsed-to-an-all-time-record-low

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I was absolutely stunned to learn that the Baltic Dry Shipping Index had plummeted to a new all-time record low of 504 at one point on Thursday.  I have written a number of articles lately about the dramatic slowdown in global trade, but I didnt realize that things had gotten quite this bad already.  Not even during the darkest moments of the last financial crisis did the Baltic Dry Shipping Index drop this low.  Something doesnt seem to be adding up, because the mainstream media keeps telling us that the global economy is doing just fine.  In fact, the Federal Reserve is so confident in our economic recovery that they are getting ready to raise interest rates.  Of course the truth is that there is no economic recovery on the horizon.

Overall, the Baltic Dry Index is down more than 60 percent over the past 12 months.  Global demand for shipping is absolutely collapsing, and yet very few experts seem alarmed by this.

 :popcorn:

Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 23, 2015, 09:15:12 am
This is the part of the tsunami where the water pulls far back from the beach, and the unwary go out to pick up fish flopping on the newly exposed sand.

The Baltic index collapsing in late summer and autumn is extremely ominous.  This is typically the time of peak shipments, at least to the US, for the holiday shopping orgy.

We saw a fall collapse in shipping rates once before - in 2008.

What we are seeing is the end of the massive tide of money-from-nothing that has been spent on capital equipment, fueling the biggest commodity boom in human history. 

Austrian economics predicts that the boom/bust cycle hits hardest in those capital-intensive industries that are far up the chain of production.  If you want to build cars you need fine rolled steel and stamping mills.  Fine rolled steel requires specialized mills to process ingots into rolls.  Those mills require massive investments in the heaviest equipment.  Mines are required, smelters, heavy trucks, crushers, rail cars, etc.

None of these are consumer items, but all are absolutely necessary to make consumer items.  To make a car today you must rely on investments and facilities built 10 or even 20 years ago.  The people who provide those items are early warning of impending collapse.

Caterpillar (CAT) reported a 16% decline in worldwide retail sales last week.  CAT's sales have fallen for 35 straight months; they fell for 19 months after the crisis of 2008, and that was a record at the time. Caterpillar makes the heavy equipment used to build mines, roads, railroads, and construction of all kinds.  CAT's US sales fell 8%, but China was down 28%, Latin America down 36%.

Building mines, railroads, steel mills, plastic production, copper smelters, all of these are extremely resource and capital intensive.  Once built these facilities can last for decades, and wise investments can yield handsome profits.   But the risks are enormous, because the entrepreneur must base their decisions on what they think consumers will need in 10 years or later.

The early 21st century saw unprecedented demand for iron ore, copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum, coal, and oil.  This was driven by massive spending on industrial infrastructure for mining, manufacturing, transportation and distributionalong with related public facilities such as roads, bridges, ports, rails and airports- in China, Africa, South America, and other "emerging markets."

But the signals that consumers actually wanted all the goods that could be produced by these facilities were utterly false.  The signals were artifacts of the insane zero interest rate policies of the fed and other central banks.

There were increases in demand for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, but the build-out of production capacity was many times larger.  China has increased its steel production  a factor of 8 over the past 15 years, to over 800 million tons a year.  But the newly constructed facilities are not fully utilized; annual capacity is well over 1100 million tons.  Actual demand is probably closer to 500 million tons a year; the 300 million tons above that produced last year went mostly to building new steel mills, bridges, and railroads.  Now that is finished, and the Baltic Dry Goods Index is collapsing because there is no longer a need for massive shipments of ore, oil, cement, and other raw materials.

There are similar malinvestments in oil fields, copper mines, cement kilns, railroads, ships, etc.  Because these facilities last for decades, the excess capacity will last for years to come.  Prices will stay low right up to the point where the central banks finally manage to ignite a ripping hyperinflation. 

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on November 23, 2015, 02:36:35 pm
Great post Silver. Thanks for chiming in. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on November 24, 2015, 06:40:25 am
Caterpillar (CAT) reported a 16% decline in worldwide retail sales last week.  CAT's sales have fallen for 35 straight months; they fell for 19 months after the crisis of 2008, and that was a record at the time. Caterpillar makes the heavy equipment used to build mines, roads, railroads, and construction of all kinds.  CAT's US sales fell 8%, but China was down 28%, Latin America down 36%.

I have a good friend who is a parts manager at CAT.  She said the overall mood there is very somber.  A few years ago CAT implemented a 3-week furlough every summer to avoid layoffs - didn't help though, still plenty of folks being let go.  Voluntary early retirement packages are always available.  She just told me a week ago that there was a CAT buyout.  No details other than those two words.  She used to have a crew of a couple dozen folks.  She is down to four.

Interesting times we live in.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on November 24, 2015, 10:10:10 am
Caterpillar (CAT) reported a 16% decline in worldwide retail sales last week.  CAT's sales have fallen for 35 straight months; they fell for 19 months after the crisis of 2008, and that was a record at the time. Caterpillar makes the heavy equipment used to build mines, roads, railroads, and construction of all kinds.  CAT's US sales fell 8%, but China was down 28%, Latin America down 36%.

I have a good friend who is a parts manager at CAT.  She said the overall mood there is very somber.  A few years ago CAT implemented a 3-week furlough every summer to avoid layoffs - didn't help though, still plenty of folks being let go.  Voluntary early retirement packages are always available.  She just told me a week ago that there was a CAT buyout.  No details other than those two words.  She used to have a crew of a couple dozen folks.  She is down to four.

Interesting times we live in.
But, but, but, the MSM says that everything is hunky-dory and that things are great all over! ;p

Seriously though, you hear all this talk about the "high value of the dollar". That's just plain BS. It's valued high compared to other currencies that are doing crappy too. Big deal! It's a race to the bottom. When it finally hits the bottom, the shock waves will reverberate for generations. WW3 is being fought right now, just not with tanks, planes, and ships. It's economic warfare. Being waged against the plebes by TPTB. All you can do to survive long-term, is distance yourself from their rigged system in any way that you can.

EDIT

I just saw this article over at coinflation and thought that it really exemplified the point that I was trying to make with my post.

How is it possible that the dollar is rising and falling at the same time?

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/how-is-it-possible-that-the-dollar-is-rising-and-falling-at-the-same-time-18264/

Quote
In astronomy, theres an important concept known as parallax, which refers to how a stars position appears to change based on the position and motion of the observer.

The earth is constantly moving along its orbit around the sun. And as this happens, the position of a star in the nights sky will appear to change slowly, gradually over time.

Theres a great view of the Southern Cross constellation from our farms in the south of Chile. But as the seasons change, the constellation appears to move very slightly, even though the stars themselves havent budged an inch.

Small children discover an earthly example of parallax when they find that the position of an object appears to change slightly as they alternate closing their left and right eyes.

The idea is that the exact same object can appear to be different, even though neither you nor the object has moved an inch.


Or you can look at the US.

If you close your left eye, the US dollar is strong. The labor market has recovered to its pre-crisis levels. The US is affluent and free.

But if you close your right eye, the dollar is astonishingly overvalued based on nearly every objective metric that exists, and the Federal Reserve is nearly insolvent on a mark-to-market basis.

The labor market has been completely hollowed out as the US work force now constitutes the lowest percentage of the American population since Jimmy Carter was President.

The US government itself is flat broke, based on its own financial statements.

Nearly every major program and institution, from Social Security to the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, to the FDIC, is either insolvent or precariously underfunded.

The government cranks out 75,000+ pages of new laws, rules, regulations each year, many of which carry severe criminal penalties and govern the most private details of our lives, including how we are allowed to raise our own children and what we can/cannot put in our own bodies.

Police forces have turned into federally-funded paramilitary units, and a grand surveillance state now dominates over the citizens.

Civil Asset Forfeiture, the deliberate theft of citizens private property by the government with absolutely zero due process, is on an alarming rise.

And many of the basic freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution have become watered-down aphorisms rather than inalienable rights.

Again, two completely opposite views that are both accurate. And there are more examples everywhere.


Thats our world. It is simultaneously full of risk AND reward. The important thing is to look with BOTH eyes.

Know the risks. Be guided by objective data to understand them, and take action to minimize them.

But dont be overwhelmed by negativity. Dont panic. Instead, take simple, sensible steps to ensure your livelihood doesnt become a victim to someone elses stupidity.

Only then, with both eyes open, will you be able to see all the incredible opportunity that awaits, and be able to seize it from a position of strength.

Our goal is simple: To help you achieve personal liberty and financial prosperity no matter what happens.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: slidemansailor on November 24, 2015, 10:48:34 am
DL, the sovereign man explanation is excellent. Thank you for sharing it.

I often use the DOWN escalator as my simile. It appears that prices and such are going up when the declining value of over-printed dollars is what we are actually experiencing.

His essay goes a lot further, covering the rise of The Spectator State with all its ramifications.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on November 25, 2015, 04:14:34 pm
Here's another bad omen, courtesy of Casey Research.

The bond market is about twice the size of the stock market.  If you aren't a Fortune 500 (and often even if you are) you go to the bond market to borrow money. 

Junk bonds are those issued by small companies or larger one with shaky balance sheets and market prospects.  Junk bonds are a canary in the coal mine: they signal trouble before the larger corporations and their higher-rated bonds take a hit.

The value of junk bonds has been falling for 18 months, but I hadn't been paying attention lately.  Too many distractions.  This figure says it all.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Wyomiles on December 08, 2015, 09:06:53 am
Just saw this on a link through Linkedin. I was looking into going to work for them. Glad I didn't !

 Abengoa employes about 24,000 people worldwide and has tons of debt.  Too BIg To Fail ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-25/abengoa-s-bondholders-jumping-ship-as-insolvency-concerns-mount
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: RVM45 on December 08, 2015, 12:52:52 pm
Okay,

Junk Bonds confuse me. How is it ever a Sane and Prudent Practice to buy Junk Bonds?

I mean unless for some reason one is anxious to lose his investment

Do Junk Bonds offer higher returns?

O Okay, here is a corporation that would be hard pressed to pay off a normal interest bondso to entice you to buy it they are going to promise to pay even higher returns?

I suppose that if I knew a great deal about some aspect of an Industry I might think that ONE SPECIAL Junk Bond was Junk only in name

But I suppose everyone thinks that and still many folks go broke.

It is like saying:

"I'm going to make a very risky investment and HOPE that I'm not throwing my investment away."

Maybe one should play roulette instead.


..RVM45
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on December 08, 2015, 03:48:17 pm
Junk bonds are just one part of a continuum of investments.

In general, lower (perceived) risk means lower returns.  The fed has destroyed the market for interest rates, stock prices, and bond prices, so that is no longer true.  Today large-cap firm means low interest rates, even if they are walking dead zombies that desperately need putting out of their misery.

Conversely, there are some great tiny companies that need money for expansion, capital equipment, etc.  The trick is finding them among all the propped-up zombies, foolish ideas, bad management, utter dependence on government subsidies, and plain old con artists.

But if you can find one, you can make a decent return on your money, many times what savings accounts or other "safe" havens offer.

Most junk bonds don't default, but enough of them do to increase the risk.

How much risk is right is up to you.  Given today's zero interest rates, I either stuff the money in a mattress, buy gold, or buy other durable goods.  Savings accounts is for chumps.

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on December 15, 2015, 09:24:06 pm
It gets worst, fast.

Third Avenue Management LLC closed their $789 million Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (a junk bond fund).  "Investors" (actually, chumps) will see their money in a few months, if ever again.  Say bye-bye!

Lucidus Capital Partners is closing its $900 million junk bond fund after a significant investor tried to withdraw money from the fund in October. No! No money for you! Lucidus will sell all of its bonds and return (some) investors money next month.  Maybe.

iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is the largest U.S. junk bond ETF, with $15 billion in junk bonds.  HYG has fallen 11.3% this year, its lowest level since 2009.

Oil is at $35.36, its lowest level since 2008.  Gasoline is less than $2 a gallon at most pumps.  A boon for consumers, a funeral dirge for the megacorps that have invested billions to bring in new oil to meet the non-existent demand.  Thanks to the Federal Reserve for sending those false signals!

Peace,

Silver
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 04, 2016, 06:52:01 am
Get ready for a big drop in stocks today.

Global stocks sink after China index dives 7 percent

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-start-2016-weak-note-middle-east-030248559--finance.html

Quote
Chinese stocks plunged nearly 7 percent Monday, triggering an emergency trading suspension and pushing global markets sharply lower. The grim start to 2016 was caused by weak Chinese manufacturing data and tensions in the Middle East.

The Shanghai Composite Index dived 6.9 percent to 3,296.66, its lowest level in nearly three months. The drop led the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to halt trading for the remainder of Monday to avert steeper falls, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

It was the first time China used the "circuit breaker" mechanism it announced late last year.

The jitters extended to Europe and were expected to push U.S. markets lower upon their open. The DAX index in Germany, whose export-led economy is sensitive to the fortunes of China, tumbled 4.2 percent to 10,288.22. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent to 6,090.76 while France's CAC 40 dropped 2.7 percent to 4,514.03. Dow futures were down 1.7 percent, while S&P 500 futures shed 1.8 percent.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 3.1 percent to close at 18,450.98 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 2.7 percent to 21,327.12. South Korea's Kospi closed 2.2 percent lower at 1,918.76. Stocks in Australia, Taiwan and Southeast Asia were also lower.

DOW Futures
Index Close     Cur Future       Change
17425.03             17038.0       -303.00

And that's PRE-market!! :thrshocker:

 :popcorn:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Silver on January 06, 2016, 05:52:34 pm
Today stocks opened low and stayed low.  The Dow was off more than 250 points from the opening bell and never got close to yesterday's close.  It's now below 17,000 for the first time in months.  Oil is at 9-year lows, Apple is below $100, and China is blowing up despite massive interventions by their equivalent of the fed.

(https://www.nepretzel.com/ProdImages/POPCORNWJS.JPG)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 06, 2016, 07:26:54 pm
Today stocks opened low and stayed low.  The Dow was off more than 250 points from the opening bell and never got close to yesterday's close.  It's now below 17,000 for the first time in months.  Oil is at 9-year lows, Apple is below $100, and China is blowing up despite massive interventions by their equivalent of the fed.


Mayhap that bounce that we predicted reached it's apex and is now on it's way back down. I'm sure that the PPT was out in full force. China's version has certainly been deployed.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 07, 2016, 04:02:16 pm
And yet....It continues.....


WORLD COULD FACE MONTHS OF CHINESE MARKET AFTERSHOCKS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_STOCK_MARKET_SLIDE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-01-07-14-33-32

Quote
On Thursday, trading halted for the day after a stock index fell 7 percent a half-hour into the trading day. It was this week's second daylong suspension after a plunge in prices Monday tripped the same "circuit breakers" that were introduced Jan. 1.

All markets are down. The DOW has lost somewhere around 1000pts. in just four days! :thrshocker:

Argent - It's Only Money Part 1 (1972) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXEObfvHvjE
argent - it's only money part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fflvocQ2PTw
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 15, 2016, 03:08:46 pm
U.S. stocks post worst 10-day calendar start in history

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-post-worst-10-day-calendar-start-in-history-2016-01-15

Quote
U.S. stocks ended the day with sharp losses Friday, posting the worst 10-day calendar start in history. A combination of plunging crude-oil prices CLG6, -4.94% and worries about slowing growth in the U.S. and China unsettled investors. Stocks trimmed their losses in the last hour of trading, but remained sharply lower. The S&P 500 SPX, -2.16% closed 45 points, or 2.3%, lower at 1,876, with financials, information technology and energy leading the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.39% fell 392 points, or 2.4%, to 15,987. Intel INTC, -9.10% led the Dow industrials lower, down more than 9%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.74% ended the day down 127 points, or 2.7%, at 4,488.

The MSM keeps trying to blame the downward trend in US stocks on China and weak crude prices, but IMHO, those factors are mere symptoms, not the cause. TPTB have to continue the charade though. If anything, they will ramp-up the brainwashing before more people can wake up to how bad things really are.

There should be a run to "safe-haven" investments.

(http://rlv.zcache.ca/got_gold_bumper_sticker-rd389d767d7a74853be030648565e6a81_v9wht_8byvr_324.jpg)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on March 13, 2016, 01:46:26 pm
Bounce 2.0 may be reaching it's apex soon. Or maybe not.....who knows? :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on April 10, 2016, 05:40:42 am
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/08/20160409_paintrade_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Jake on April 11, 2016, 10:07:47 am
How much risk is right is up to you.  Given today's zero interest rates, I either stuff the money in a mattress, buy gold, or buy other durable goods.  Savings accounts is for chumps.

Peace,

Silver

I thought that you'd be into Silver . . . . . .  ^_^
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on September 09, 2016, 06:27:29 pm
The DOW dropped almost 400pts today. Why the big drop? Why else........people are extremely gullible. :rolleyes: More rumors flying around that the Fed will raise rates. Guess what? Not gonna happen. At least not until January, anyway. If the Fed raises rates, the stock market will tank. Quickly. Probably to the tune of 4k-5k pts in 3-4 weeks. They won't do it. Not in an election year. The Fed wants Hitlery to win. If they raise rates between now and November, Trump will win.

Mark my words, no rate hike until at least January.

Of course, I could be wrong. It HAS been known to happen. :laugh:

(https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/20130718-economics-definition.jpg?w=300&h=258)
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: FDD on January 27, 2017, 12:20:31 pm
Hey the market is past 20,000 now YEAAAAAAAAAAAA

 ;p


got your real money yet?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on January 27, 2017, 12:23:21 pm
Hey the market is past 20,000 now YEAAAAAAAAAAAA
got your real money yet?  :ph34r:

Seems a lot of people like to play monopoly. It's just a game... a bad one, of course.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DiabloLoco on January 27, 2017, 02:20:58 pm
Hey the market is past 20,000 now YEAAAAAAAAAAAA

And is it any coincidence that the national debt just eclipsed 20 trillion? Methinks there may be a correlation there.

Quote
got your real money yet?  :ph34r:
I don't know........Maybe......... :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on February 05, 2017, 12:15:57 am
Production and profit became decoupled years ago.....  Big business is thoroughly hooked on the government teat.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: FDD on February 28, 2017, 06:36:56 am
Why is it when I hear where the stock market closed at, I start to here music, the pop goes the weasel song?
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: knobster on February 28, 2017, 08:54:52 am
Why is it when I hear where the stock market closed at, I start to here music, the pop goes the weasel song?

I dare not speculate why you hear music and/or voices in your head!  :laugh:
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: FDD on February 28, 2017, 09:37:58 am
Why is it when I hear where the stock market closed at, I start to here music, the pop goes the weasel song?

I dare not speculate why you hear music and/or voices in your head!  :laugh:

Maybe to much time here
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: MamaLiberty on February 28, 2017, 09:47:25 am
I don't read such things. :) Anyway, I'm still hearing "Ding-Dong, The Witch is Dead" at times. Makes me smile.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: Rarick on November 05, 2017, 02:03:18 pm
The stockmarket numbers are about volume, not value.  The economy is not growing, yet the volume of trades goes up.  What does that say?  I am thinking that business is busy churning the market for profits, and the volume is indicative of what they have to churn to just stay even.

18 trillion in debt has devalued the dollar drastically, a million dollars in the bank can only ensure 30,000$ a year in income with the most secure invested principle.  What does that tell you?  I am sure a lot of people in real estate are now sitting on their property and zealously guarding the nest egg they made during the boom, and the smart ones did what I did.  They are in various 'Park City' clones at the very least, or have a property that pays its taxes and a small income on the side.

I am now waiting for the farmers to burn the harvest in protest at the next election.
Title: Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
Post by: DaGriz on November 06, 2017, 06:55:02 am
I am now waiting for the farmers to burn the harvest in protest at the next election.

once in a while you read that one statement, sending a shiver down your spine, spurring a greater sense of urgency. man, that one did it for me today.