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Author Topic: This is the way the world ends  (Read 107260 times)

EwB

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2008, 09:37:58 am »

Trust me, anyone who is working on a world changing invention on their own ( no federal grant money, corporate sponsor, or major university endowment ) will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   Hypothetically of course.

EwB
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ZooT_aLLures

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2008, 05:00:58 pm »

Quote
will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   

That woud depend upon whether it was released with the intention of making money......or whether it was released with the intention of causing earth shattering change......

The first would be easilly controlled, the second is completely uncontrollable..............

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Hollywoodgold

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2008, 05:11:55 pm »

Hollywoodgold,

The definition you cite is the monetarist position on inflation.  They believe that so long as the supply of money is increased slowly, no faster than the increase in productivity, prices need not rise and no harm is done.

I prefer the Austrian, or hard-money definition.  For a good discussion about the definition of inflation, including an analysis of the monetarist view, see Defining Inflation, by Frank Shostak.

The fundamental problem with the monetarist view is that it still puts mortal men in charge of the printing press.  Who gets to measure productivity?  Who gets to decide when to increase the supply of money.  Who gets the new money first?

Make no mistake, the power to create money at will is the One Ring; it confers awesome power, but inevitably corrupts all who attempt to wield it.

The Austrian, hard-money view is that markets should determine what is to be used as money.  Markets selected gold long ago, for many good reasons.  Even gold money is "inflated" at 1% a year or so, but the increase is from miners wresting the precious metal from the ground at great effort and expense.  The increase is not subject to the whim of politicians, cannot be ramped up to support war or oppression.  It is out of the hands of government, which is as it should be for a free society.

Mr. Bill,

I agree that one of the purposes of inflation is to tax savings, robbing the poor to give to the rich and powerful.  Another purpose is to fund endless war, which is otherwise so damaging and expensive that taxpayers will not stand for it for very long.  There are still other purposes, all evil, all used to serve the state.

I also agree that the masters do not want to kill the host.  It is their arrogance and ignorance that will do that job.  Bernanke fancies himself an expert on the Great Depression, and so he will lead us into a Greater Depression.  He doesn't intend to destroy the empire, but he could play a key role in its downfall. 

Yes, TPTB think they can engineer a high inflation, hold it just long enough to make the present unpayable debts affordable in the still more debased currency, then pull their levers and bring inflation down to their preferred targets of 3-6% a year.  But their knowledge is limited, and they don't have the degree of control they imagine.  In one easily forseen scenario, inflation reaches  20-30% a year.  Japan and China realize what is happening or see it coming, dump a trillion dollars on the market in a matter of days, and ignite a hyperinflation.  Game over.  Or perhaps we annoy the Russians enough that they cut off energy supplies to the West, the price of oil and gas spiral out of control.  Game over.  Or perhaps just enough sheep, 1-5% or so, wake up and pull out of the system by switching to commodity money.  There are too many possibilities to forsee the future, and the levers of power are in the hands of morons.  They don't mean to kill us, but they probably will.

Peace,

Silver

Silver:

I think we agree on the Austrian School but I wasn't suggesting that the money created should be fiat. The long term rate of increase in the supply of gold has been roughly 3%/year (if I remember correctly). As long as that supply did not increase at a rate greater than the GDP, prices would remain stable. In the event that the supply of gold increased at a rate greater than GDP, that would cause an increase in the prices of goods and services or a decrease in the value of gold. The reverse is also true. This dynamic assumes an absence of gold supply manipulation to counter supply and demand market forces.

BR/DS
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EwB

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 07:33:31 pm »

Quote
will get squashed if they are not aware of the PTB and their controlling intentions.  All your ducks would need to be in a row before releasing anything earth shattering that changes everything.   

That woud depend upon whether it was released with the intention of making money......or whether it was released with the intention of causing earth shattering change......

The first would be easilly controlled, the second is completely uncontrollable..............



if it is what I think it is from who I think it is, money is not the motivation.....and  I have said enough

EwB
 









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Joel

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2008, 07:18:23 am »

Hm.

I've stayed out of this, though reading with interest, because you guys clearly know something about it and I do not and I will not counsel my superiors.  But Occam's Razor calls.

"Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence." - Napoleon

Maybe, at the end of the day, this is just hubris on the part of silly little people with power.
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EwB

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2008, 09:42:09 am »

Hm.

I've stayed out of this, though reading with interest, because you guys clearly know something about it and I do not and I will not counsel my superiors.  But Occam's Razor calls.

"Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence." - Napoleon

Maybe, at the end of the day, this is just hubris on the part of silly little people with power.

You are right     Greed + Stupidity = A lot of what we see here.....
Just thinking about the complexity of it all and what it takes to idiot proof something, you have to wonder why it didn't break sooner.


EwB
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sharp_shepherd

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2008, 10:59:23 am »

Sounds an aweful lot like the beginning of Patriots...dont you think?

And, I don't know about most of you but i'm having a heck of a time buying silver in oz. at any quantitiy without paying a huge markup.  Any currenlty good suggestions out there?
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Hollywoodgold

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2008, 12:38:19 pm »

Sounds an aweful lot like the beginning of Patriots...dont you think?

And, I don't know about most of you but i'm having a heck of a time buying silver in oz. at any quantitiy without paying a huge markup.  Any currenlty good suggestions out there?

SharpS:

This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

A good source of AG is:

http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Coins_Rolls__Bags.aspx

The premium is very widespread.

BR/DS




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Claire

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2008, 01:05:34 pm »

This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

Thanks for the link, Hollywoodgold. Good article. But my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Claire
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Hollywoodgold

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2008, 01:17:15 pm »

This may help explain the conditions better:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=46521

Thanks for the link, Hollywoodgold. Good article. But my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Claire

Claire:

I believe the answer is that the spot market fixing is done in London and New York and are based on trading on metals exchanges. The current shortage is in the retail market, aka the street. The supply demand for COMEX bars is currently adequate. That is the reason the ETF's are still showing significant gains in inventory. Were they trying to buy say, Kruggerands, they would be SOL.

The question I have is whether the street shortage of retail silver presages a transition from "Contango" to "backwardation". If so, prices should take off to the upside. My guess is that the difference is just misplaced resources and the premiums being paid are the compensating factor adjusting supply and demand.

BR/DS
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Silver

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2008, 02:04:59 pm »

my little brain still doesn't grasp a fundamental question: If demand is that high, why isn't spot price going up? The article touches on that subject, but not in a way that makes sense to me.

People have spoken here before about manipulation, particularly in the silver market. Sure looks that way. But is there any hard evidence of that? And if not ... why isn't the price soaring according the the standard rules of supply and demand?

Well, the spot price did go up.  It rocketed from $740 or so to nearly $900 in less than 2 weeks, 9/11 to 9/23/2008. 

The article touches on the most likely explanation: There is plenty of gold if you want to buy a 400 oz bar for $350,000 or so.  There's plenty of 1000 oz silver bars as well.  What is missing is coins, small bars, and jewelery stock, typically wires and sheets. 

IF the market works freely, the higher premiums for these smaller items will cause some of those large bars to come out of the Comex warehouses and go to fabricators, who will turn them into blanks for coins, small bars, wire, etc. 

The only evidence I've seen of manipulation is some rather extreme concentration of short positions by 2 or 3 banks in silver and gold futures markets.  I find that suspicious but not proof, but people like Theodore Butler think it is.  His article The Smoking Gun is worth a read.

If there is manipulation, it is good news for us small fry, as the purpose of the manipulation is to keep the price down, rather than jack it up, like people like to accuse oil companies.  If there is manipulation, it is done via the paper futures market.  But if there is manipulation, all it takes is for a few of those people wealthy enough to buy multiple big bars to buy futures contracts, then demand delivery.  These could be wealthy investors anxious for a bargain, or fabricators of coin blanks and wire looking to make profits on the large premiums presently in place.  In either case, the manipulation ends pretty quickly.

So the price IS soaring, in the form of higher than normal premiums on coins and small bars.  That will make metal flow from the large bars to fabricators.  This takes some time, things don't happen overnight, but it certainly will happen.

Manipulation arguments aside, the soaring demand for small coins and bars is a very good sign.  It means that ordinary people are re-discovering gold and silver.  It is no longer the exclusive provenance of central banks, bullion banks, and the hyper-wealthy.  This is very good news for sound money and the freedom that comes with it.

The fed and the government have method, motive, means, and opportunity to manipulate the markets, and not just gold and silver.  Notice the deafening silence regarding calls for more oversight of the fed, or the Plunge Protection Team aka the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.  I have no doubt that these criminals have interfered in the markets from time to time.  What I doubt is their ability to maintain significant distortions.  Look about you; even the largest credit bubble in the history of mankind is popping right before our eyes.  Markets cannot be fooled forever.

Peace,

Silver
« Last Edit: October 01, 2008, 03:45:20 am by Silver »
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Claire

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2008, 07:31:06 pm »

Well, the spot price did go up.  It rocketed from $740 or so to nearly $900 in less than 2 weeks, 9/11 to 9/23/2008. 

True -- though $900 is still less than gold was selling for last spring when demand was apparently not as severe. And silver has fallen these last few days as retail buyers have been fruitlessly seeking it.

Quote
The article touches on the most likely explanation: There is plenty of gold if you want to buy a 400 oz bar for $350,000 or so.  There's plenty of 1000 oz silver bars as well.  What is missing is coins, small bars, and jewelery stock, typically wires and sheets. 

IF the market works freely, the higher premiums for these smaller items will cause some of those large bars to come out of the Comex warehouses and go to fabricators, who will turn them into blanks for coins, small bars, wire, etc. 

Hollywoodgold wrote:
Quote
I believe the answer is that the spot market fixing is done in London and New York and are based on trading on metals exchanges. The current shortage is in the retail market, aka the street. The supply demand for COMEX bars is currently adequate. That is the reason the ETF's are still showing significant gains in inventory. Were they trying to buy say, Kruggerands, they would be SOL.

But yes, that makes sense. So you're both saying that only certain varieties of gold or silver that are unavailable, and that the rising premium is the retail means of boosting the price on those.

Okay, makes a certain amount of sense now ...

Thank you both.

Claire
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Claire

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2008, 07:48:38 pm »

From the Financial Times:

Quote
Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen.

Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich.

“There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf8246aa-8f13-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html

Claire
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Just as the flattery of friends often leads us astray, so the insults of enemies often do us good. -- St. Augustine, Confessions, Book IX, Chapter 8


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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2008, 11:31:12 pm »

Claire,

Thanks for the link. I also think this part is a little ominous:
Quote
Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said.
(emphasis mine)

If the well connected are getting into physical bullion for safety, it's a vote of no confidence in the
existing financial system. This really is beginning to look like the beginning of Rawles' novel Patriots.

Bear


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Silver

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Re: This is the way the world ends
« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2008, 03:42:10 am »

Claire,

You are most welcome, and thanks for your link.  That article was the first I've seen that claimed significant movement of gold bars out of the LBMA vaults.  Getting a bar into the LBMA vaults or Comex warehouses is expensive; once inside, they normally stay there.  The article was also the first to mention people paying a $25/oz premium to "secure scarce gold bars."

Bars may be leaving the vaults for the reason I posited above: to be made into coins and other forms that are in higher demand.  But if premiums for physical gold persist for everything from bullion coins to good delivery bars, it suggests that the price fixing system is failing.

London price fixes are somewhat closer tied to physical metal than New York prices, as the 5 traders swap good delivery bars with each other until a price is found where no more trades are made.  New York has a spot price, but most of the trading is in gold futures.  If one has to pay a hefty premium to get a good delivery bar delivered, there is something wrong with the price fixing system.

While some will call this evidence of manipulation, it is also consistent with the early stages of a hyperinflation, where people pay premiums to trade paper money for tangible goods.  The price system for pretty much everything breaks down in a hyperinflation.

That's why I named this thread "This is the way the world ends."  World endings tend to be chaotic, but they are not always bad.  A world that uses honest money will find it much more difficult to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of very few, to maintain monstrous armies and weapons of mass destruction, to wage war, and to steal from the thrifty and the poor to give to the rich.  There is hope at the ending of this world.

Peace,

Silver
« Last Edit: October 01, 2008, 03:49:55 am by Silver »
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