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Author Topic: Signs of the Greater Depression  (Read 124944 times)

Silver

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #525 on: November 25, 2015, 04:14:34 pm »

Here's another bad omen, courtesy of Casey Research.

The bond market is about twice the size of the stock market.  If you aren't a Fortune 500 (and often even if you are) you go to the bond market to borrow money. 

Junk bonds are those issued by small companies or larger one with shaky balance sheets and market prospects.  Junk bonds are a canary in the coal mine: they signal trouble before the larger corporations and their higher-rated bonds take a hit.

The value of junk bonds has been falling for 18 months, but I hadn't been paying attention lately.  Too many distractions.  This figure says it all.

Peace,

Silver
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Wyomiles

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #526 on: December 08, 2015, 09:06:53 am »

Just saw this on a link through Linkedin. I was looking into going to work for them. Glad I didn't !

 Abengoa employes about 24,000 people worldwide and has tons of debt.  Too BIg To Fail ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-25/abengoa-s-bondholders-jumping-ship-as-insolvency-concerns-mount
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RVM45

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #527 on: December 08, 2015, 12:52:52 pm »

Okay,

Junk Bonds confuse me. How is it ever a Sane and Prudent Practice to buy Junk Bonds?

I mean unless for some reason one is anxious to lose his investment…

Do Junk Bonds offer higher returns?

O Okay, here is a corporation that would be hard pressed to pay off a normal interest bond—so to entice you to buy it they are going to promise to pay even higher returns?

I suppose that if I knew a great deal about some aspect of an Industry I might think that ONE SPECIAL Junk Bond was Junk only in name…

But I suppose everyone thinks that and still many folks go broke.

It is like saying:

"I'm going to make a very risky investment and HOPE that I'm not throwing my investment away."

Maybe one should play roulette instead.


…..RVM45
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Silver

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #528 on: December 08, 2015, 03:48:17 pm »

Junk bonds are just one part of a continuum of investments.

In general, lower (perceived) risk means lower returns.  The fed has destroyed the market for interest rates, stock prices, and bond prices, so that is no longer true.  Today large-cap firm means low interest rates, even if they are walking dead zombies that desperately need putting out of their misery.

Conversely, there are some great tiny companies that need money for expansion, capital equipment, etc.  The trick is finding them among all the propped-up zombies, foolish ideas, bad management, utter dependence on government subsidies, and plain old con artists.

But if you can find one, you can make a decent return on your money, many times what savings accounts or other "safe" havens offer.

Most junk bonds don't default, but enough of them do to increase the risk.

How much risk is right is up to you.  Given today's zero interest rates, I either stuff the money in a mattress, buy gold, or buy other durable goods.  Savings accounts is for chumps.

Peace,

Silver
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Silver

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #529 on: December 15, 2015, 09:24:06 pm »

It gets worst, fast.

Third Avenue Management LLC closed their $789 million Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (a junk bond fund).  "Investors" (actually, chumps) will see their money in a few months, if ever again.  Say bye-bye!

Lucidus Capital Partners is closing its $900 million junk bond fund after a “significant investor” tried to withdraw money from the fund in October. No! No money for you! Lucidus will sell all of its bonds and return (some) investors’ money next month.  Maybe.

iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is the largest U.S. junk bond ETF, with $15 billion in junk bonds.  HYG has fallen 11.3% this year, its lowest level since 2009.

Oil is at $35.36, its lowest level since 2008.  Gasoline is less than $2 a gallon at most pumps.  A boon for consumers, a funeral dirge for the megacorps that have invested billions to bring in new oil to meet the non-existent demand.  Thanks to the Federal Reserve for sending those false signals!

Peace,

Silver
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #530 on: January 04, 2016, 06:52:01 am »

Get ready for a big drop in stocks today.

Global stocks sink after China index dives 7 percent

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-start-2016-weak-note-middle-east-030248559--finance.html

Quote
Chinese stocks plunged nearly 7 percent Monday, triggering an emergency trading suspension and pushing global markets sharply lower. The grim start to 2016 was caused by weak Chinese manufacturing data and tensions in the Middle East.

The Shanghai Composite Index dived 6.9 percent to 3,296.66, its lowest level in nearly three months. The drop led the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to halt trading for the remainder of Monday to avert steeper falls, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

It was the first time China used the "circuit breaker" mechanism it announced late last year.

The jitters extended to Europe and were expected to push U.S. markets lower upon their open. The DAX index in Germany, whose export-led economy is sensitive to the fortunes of China, tumbled 4.2 percent to 10,288.22. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent to 6,090.76 while France's CAC 40 dropped 2.7 percent to 4,514.03. Dow futures were down 1.7 percent, while S&P 500 futures shed 1.8 percent.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 3.1 percent to close at 18,450.98 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 2.7 percent to 21,327.12. South Korea's Kospi closed 2.2 percent lower at 1,918.76. Stocks in Australia, Taiwan and Southeast Asia were also lower.

DOW Futures
Index Close     Cur Future       Change
17425.03             17038.0       -303.00

And that's PRE-market!! :thrshocker:

 :popcorn:
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 06:55:34 am by DiabloLoco »
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Silver

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #531 on: January 06, 2016, 05:52:34 pm »

Today stocks opened low and stayed low.  The Dow was off more than 250 points from the opening bell and never got close to yesterday's close.  It's now below 17,000 for the first time in months.  Oil is at 9-year lows, Apple is below $100, and China is blowing up despite massive interventions by their equivalent of the fed.

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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #532 on: January 06, 2016, 07:26:54 pm »

Today stocks opened low and stayed low.  The Dow was off more than 250 points from the opening bell and never got close to yesterday's close.  It's now below 17,000 for the first time in months.  Oil is at 9-year lows, Apple is below $100, and China is blowing up despite massive interventions by their equivalent of the fed.


Mayhap that bounce that we predicted reached it's apex and is now on it's way back down. I'm sure that the PPT was out in full force. China's version has certainly been deployed.
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #533 on: January 07, 2016, 04:02:16 pm »

And yet....It continues.....


WORLD COULD FACE MONTHS OF CHINESE MARKET AFTERSHOCKS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_STOCK_MARKET_SLIDE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-01-07-14-33-32

Quote
On Thursday, trading halted for the day after a stock index fell 7 percent a half-hour into the trading day. It was this week's second daylong suspension after a plunge in prices Monday tripped the same "circuit breakers" that were introduced Jan. 1.

All markets are down. The DOW has lost somewhere around 1000pts. in just four days! :thrshocker:

Argent - It's Only Money Part 1 (1972) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXEObfvHvjE
argent - it's only money part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fflvocQ2PTw
« Last Edit: January 07, 2016, 06:09:25 pm by DiabloLoco »
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #534 on: January 15, 2016, 03:08:46 pm »

U.S. stocks post worst 10-day calendar start in history

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-post-worst-10-day-calendar-start-in-history-2016-01-15

Quote
U.S. stocks ended the day with sharp losses Friday, posting the worst 10-day calendar start in history. A combination of plunging crude-oil prices CLG6, -4.94% and worries about slowing growth in the U.S. and China unsettled investors. Stocks trimmed their losses in the last hour of trading, but remained sharply lower. The S&P 500 SPX, -2.16% closed 45 points, or 2.3%, lower at 1,876, with financials, information technology and energy leading the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.39% fell 392 points, or 2.4%, to 15,987. Intel INTC, -9.10% led the Dow industrials lower, down more than 9%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.74% ended the day down 127 points, or 2.7%, at 4,488.

The MSM keeps trying to blame the downward trend in US stocks on China and weak crude prices, but IMHO, those factors are mere symptoms, not the cause. TPTB have to continue the charade though. If anything, they will ramp-up the brainwashing before more people can wake up to how bad things really are.

There should be a run to "safe-haven" investments.

« Last Edit: January 15, 2016, 03:17:16 pm by DiabloLoco »
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #535 on: March 13, 2016, 01:46:26 pm »

Bounce 2.0 may be reaching it's apex soon. Or maybe not.....who knows? :laugh:
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #536 on: April 10, 2016, 05:40:42 am »

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Jake

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #537 on: April 11, 2016, 10:07:47 am »

How much risk is right is up to you.  Given today's zero interest rates, I either stuff the money in a mattress, buy gold, or buy other durable goods.  Savings accounts is for chumps.

Peace,

Silver

I thought that you'd be into Silver . . . . . .  ^_^
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DiabloLoco

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #538 on: September 09, 2016, 06:27:29 pm »

The DOW dropped almost 400pts today. Why the big drop? Why else........people are extremely gullible. :rolleyes: More rumors flying around that the Fed will raise rates. Guess what? Not gonna happen. At least not until January, anyway. If the Fed raises rates, the stock market will tank. Quickly. Probably to the tune of 4k-5k pts in 3-4 weeks. They won't do it. Not in an election year. The Fed wants Hitlery to win. If they raise rates between now and November, Trump will win.

Mark my words, no rate hike until at least January.

Of course, I could be wrong. It HAS been known to happen. :laugh:

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FDD

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Re: Signs of the Greater Depression
« Reply #539 on: January 27, 2017, 12:20:31 pm »

Hey the market is past 20,000 now YEAAAAAAAAAAAA

 ;p


got your real money yet?  :ph34r:
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