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Author Topic: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in  (Read 5946 times)

DadaOrwell

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How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« on: November 11, 2009, 12:21:22 pm »

Say it's the year 2011 and you believe the gold boom is nearing its end.  What do you do with the yellow metal before it possibly crashes like it did after 1980?   
Prominent Ron Paul backer and financial adviser Larry Lepard has a practical suggestion.  This interview occurred right before his speech to Republican Liberty Caucus supporters in New Hampshire. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz0BRCHnFs4

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http://digg.com/business_finance/How_to_exit_gold_boom_near_peak_Lepard_weighs_in
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Bill St. Clair

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2009, 01:33:35 pm »

I haven't watched the video, but my opinion is that you hold most of it. Gold sometimes decreases in price, in dollars, but very rarely decreases in value, were you to trade it for other commodities. During healthy market times, the stock market will greatly outperform gold, as an investment, but in exchange for more risk. Previous metals are not an investment. They are a store of value. A remarkably stable store of value, through hundreds of years. In the nineteenth century, an ounce of gold bought a good suit. Today an ounce of gold buys a good suit.
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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2009, 05:05:20 pm »

I totally agree with you Bill.  I don't buy gold or silver to make money but to keep from losing the value of MY HARD WORK.  If I make "money" then that's just an added bonus.
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padre29

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2009, 05:19:03 pm »


To me if one is seeking to liquidate some metals holdings then it should be done with a specific new investement in mind.

Selling below peak prices is  great, however then what, if there was a deal on some land or other hard potentially income producing asset then it would make sense.
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macman2k

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2009, 03:58:32 pm »

Gold is a store of value... but the key thing to remember is that value not a unit, but an opinion.  All value is relative and personal.

Thus, in terms of food, gold will probably see an initial spike (panic) and then a rapid fall as people realize they need to trade that gold for food!
In terms of housing, gold will probably see a spike and housing will probably fall dramatically
In terms of labor, gold will be going up dramatically
In terms of dollars, gold will probably go to infinity and beyond. 
In terms of gas,oil,etc I would expect gold to spike (panic) and then fall.

All of the above are subject to price controls, government rigging, etc. 

Good luck to all!
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Hutch

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2011, 01:04:32 pm »

I always figured the price of gold is a reflection of the perceived value of the $ U.S.

In other words, as the dollar declines, gold rises and preserves the original [entry point] of the invested $ U.S.

What's that analogy?...an ounce of gold still buys a good suit.

Here's another point of view on when to sell:


ttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/jesses-paradox-gold-performs-well-in.html

When Will the Gold Bull Market End

So, the frustrated investor says, when will gold finally start topping?

Gold have topped when the smart money is convinced that the real economy is becoming naturally sustainable, robustly organic in its credit creation and allocation, and healthy in the growth of the median wage to support consumption, without subsidy or interference or new unpayable debt from the Federal Reserve, or the draconian 'taxes' from an outsized financial sector that stifles real growth.

When people are no longer obsessed with what Goldman Sachs and their ilk are doing, or what Bernanke and his merry pranksters have to say that day, then will be the time to be out of gold. I do not see even a move in that direction anywhere on the horizon.  Because of the credibility trap, the impulse to reform is stifled in the corridors of power.

This is no top, and sentiment is unusually bearish. As I have said, I believe this is the base for a new leg up that is going to surprise all but a few. No one knows the future and I could be wrong.

But I do not think that I am, unless there is a new market panic and a general liquidation of all assets. The hedge funds, BIS, and the Fed can play their games, but they cannot hold back the tide of history without being overwhelmed.
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Bear

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2011, 01:16:18 pm »

Here's my thinking:

* For gold to go down and stay down, would require that the world embrace
   the dollar again as the ultimate store of value.

* For that to happen would require that decades of congressional mismanagement
   be stopped, and then reversed.

* What are the chances of that happening?

I'll just keep holding on to my few ounces as long term savings until such
time (at least) as they decide to back the dollar 100% again with gold.

Bear

PS: I do think that for the forseable future there will be spikes and pull backs
     in the 'nominal' price of gold. Since I own my gold outright, the short term
     market prices does not concern me.
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Silver

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2011, 01:04:24 pm »

His early advice for recognizing the blow-off peak is the same as mine:

When you see it on the cover of Time magazine AND all your friends and co-workers are talking about the gold coins they just bought.

He thinks the government will eventually move to a gold standard.  Not this government.  Not any government that remotely resembles the present US government.  So that scenario means some rather extreme shifts in government before there's any chance of a peak in gold price.

I have no idea when gold's bull market will end, when the masses will start clamoring for it and buying it at any price.  I know that before that time we will almost certainly see:
  • The Bankruptcy of Greece
  • The default or bankruptcy of France, UK, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, maybe others.
  • The collapse of the Euro
  • The collapse of the dollar
  • The repatriation of American troops - because we can no longer pay them
That's all just predictable wreckage from the train wreck. These are pieces that are already flying through the air, it's just a question of where and when they land. I know that much is coming.  There's probably a lot more.  I'll be hanging onto my gold until at least all of those have come to pass - and very probably for a long time after that.

Peace,

Silver
 
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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2011, 10:23:32 pm »

Here's my thinking:

* For gold to go down and stay down, would require that the world embrace
   the dollar again as the ultimate store of value.

* For that to happen would require that decades of congressional mismanagement
   be stopped, and then reversed.

* What are the chances of that happening?

I'll just keep holding on to my few ounces as long term savings until such
time (at least) as they decide to back the dollar 100% again with gold.

Bear

PS: I do think that for the forseable future there will be spikes and pull backs
     in the 'nominal' price of gold. Since I own my gold outright, the short term
     market prices does not concern me.


I'm not so sure the US Gov has much to do with Bear, one of the underlying things about 10 yr bull market is..what is driving it?

No one can truly say "why" gold and silver have a decade of growth on their curves.

Gold rose when the dollar was still relatively strong, as did silver, neither has wide spread industrial uses, and when times get ugly, they both fall in value, which sort of tells me investors are behind it, and do not really see it as the safe haven we see it as.

If so, then why pull out of metals and hide it in FRN's?
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Bear

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2011, 10:44:41 pm »

Here's my thinking:

* For gold to go down and stay down, would require that the world embrace
   the dollar again as the ultimate store of value.

* For that to happen would require that decades of congressional mismanagement
   be stopped, and then reversed.

* What are the chances of that happening?

I'll just keep holding on to my few ounces as long term savings until such
time (at least) as they decide to back the dollar 100% again with gold.

Bear

PS: I do think that for the forseable future there will be spikes and pull backs
     in the 'nominal' price of gold. Since I own my gold outright, the short term
     market prices does not concern me.


I'm not so sure the US Gov has much to do with Bear, one of the underlying things about 10 yr bull market is..what is driving it?

No one can truly say "why" gold and silver have a decade of growth on their curves.

Gold rose when the dollar was still relatively strong, as did silver, neither has wide spread industrial uses, and when times get ugly, they both fall in value, which sort of tells me investors are behind it, and do not really see it as the safe haven we see it as.

If so, then why pull out of metals and hide it in FRN's?

I've read that some folks who had some of their investments in precious metals had to take
the money out to pay off margin calls on other investments that didn't do well.

In other cases, where people don't see precious metals as money, it was a chance to make
a "profit" off of the gain. The idea of KEEPING precious metals as a store of value is not a meme
that is widely held by the public, yet.

Bear
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padre29

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Re: How to *exit* gold boom near peak - Lepard weighs in
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2011, 11:05:04 pm »


Which is sort of my point Bear, it is not seen the same way in the West as it is in the East.

In the west it is more of an investment, as the thought of PM's as being a storehouse of value when the central bank rapes the currency is a foreign thought in the West, in the East it is quite common and the people know it and trade paper for metal.
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