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Author Topic: Bug In small/medium town  (Read 18222 times)

Voxx147

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Bug In small/medium town
« on: January 11, 2010, 01:43:50 pm »


In reading over a lot of topics and guides, it’s almost a universal idea that the big city population will flood into the suburbs and beyond. At some point there will be gangs of “thugs” raping a pillaging as they go. My thought, what are the odds that these people will methodically pillage every neighborhood going house by house street by street and getting everything? Or will they just bounce around going further from city centers.

Is there a chance that they will go after targets of opportunity? Shopping centers, easy access neighborhoods and move on, will they come back at some point? I wonder if there have been any discussions on the path this will take after a month, a year…will they double back or just look for more towns and forget about towns they have already been to.

I know it’s not idea and you’re taking a risk staying in a densely populated area, but I am not debating that. What I want an opinion on is:

How soon will we see these “thug” groups get up and running? Best/worst case
What percentage (on average) will a house/neighborhood be targeted? Assuming you’re doing everything to not draw attention to your home.
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CorbinKale

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2010, 03:29:13 pm »

That is the question that has been the basis for most of our family planning. My uncle, who lives 150 yards from me, and I have been gaming that scenario for a few years. We live in rural area a few miles outside of a very small town and about 40 miles from what one could consider a large town. Most of the families in this area are armed and have the ability to feed themselves if the trucks stop running.

We figure the criminals and gangs will prey on the people who get 'trapped' in the cities first. Once the cities have been stripped bare of resources, the gangs will begin to venture out into the suburban areas. We figure it will take about two weeks for that to happen. After a month isolated rural sites, like ours, will begin to have real problems with those types of predators. We have been preparing for a few years and have finally gotten most of our wish list complete, including GenIII NVGs and the ability to put lead on targets in the dark. We have set up secondary and tertiary communications between our houses.

Once the problems begin, other family members will fall back to our site from the cities. They have been staging supplies with us and are ready to bring more food, clothes and arms when the time to bugout arrives. We will have about 20 trusted family members at our location, with a few more family sites within 50 miles. That will give us enough folks to have a 24 hour watch for any predators, and allow a sleep/work/guard cycle. There are  three more houses that could be integrated into our fields of fire, but only one of those families is likely to stay put when things get rough. That family is longtime friends and will be readily integrated into our plans. The other homes will be integrated into our perimeter as housing for additional family/friends, or manned as LP/OPs.

The big issue that has caused some concern, and even caused a few family members to opt out of coming here in an emergency, is what to do after an engagement. Our SOP is to kill anyone who attacks us, even if they surrender at some point. Any survivors are almost guaranteed to seek revenge, and will have intel on our strength and capabilities. We don't have the facilities, manpower, nor extra food to manage POWs. Any survivors will get a .22 in the head, and a trip to the pit, away from our homes. Any supplies they had become ours. Nasty? Immoral? Maybe, but we figure they convicted themselves when they tried to kill us. Self defense and practicality demand that we not set those predators free to have another shot at us, or anyone else. I bring this up because the time to get it into the open is BEFORE you have a community banding together for survival. Once the SHTF, this issue can split a survival group right in two.
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knobster

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2010, 04:58:30 am »

James Wesley, Rawles talks about this 'line of drift' in some of his books.  I believe that these 'wolf packs' will clean out all grocery stores, shelters, gas stations and hospitals first and then head to the boonies for food.  I can't imagine that in a true meltdown scenario that there will be enough order among these people for an organized house by house pillaging.  I think it will be an 'every man for himself' type of situation.  Thus, a few well-placed shots should deter any predators from entering your home - especially if there are plenty of easier targets elsewhere.
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MamaLiberty

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2010, 07:13:41 am »

James Wesley, Rawles talks about this 'line of drift' in some of his books.  I believe that these 'wolf packs' will clean out all grocery stores, shelters, gas stations and hospitals first and then head to the boonies for food.  I can't imagine that in a true meltdown scenario that there will be enough order among these people for an organized house by house pillaging.  I think it will be an 'every man for himself' type of situation.  Thus, a few well-placed shots should deter any predators from entering your home - especially if there are plenty of easier targets elsewhere.

Just remember that their numbers will be greater in the beginning. The stupid, lazy and ineffective will die off rather quickly and they will kill each other, probably in rather large numbers at first.

As they move out into the rural areas, their numbers will be fewer, but they will tend to be the more intelligent and resourceful survivors of the city types. They still won't know squat about woodcraft or much of anything else connected with survival, but will have the incentive (hunger and rage) and the weapons to present a serious threat.

Any group forted up to defend their property needs to be very aware of this and not get complacent. "A few well placed shots" will probably NOT deter these motivated and desperate people. They may be killed, or move on to easier targets, but they will continue to be a threat to everyone as long as they survive.

I suspect complacence and overconfidence will kill as many of us as anything else. Sad.
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Voxx147

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2010, 09:30:16 am »


Just remember that their numbers will be greater in the beginning. The stupid, lazy and ineffective will die off rather quickly and they will kill each other, probably in rather large numbers at first.

As they move out into the rural areas, their numbers will be fewer, but they will tend to be the more intelligent and resourceful survivors of the city types.

That’s kind of my thought, do you think there is a "safe" (in relative terms)zone where you can slip by un-noticed by the masses of hungry people as they flow out of the city, before the "intelligent" and resourceful survivors move into the more rural areas looking for food. I am about 25 miles from a large city, 1.2 million. But still in a fairly densely populated area, far to populated for my liking, but I am stuck here for now!
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MamaLiberty

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2010, 10:49:26 am »

That’s kind of my thought, do you think there is a "safe" (in relative terms)zone where you can slip by un-noticed by the masses of hungry people

No, not really. Whatever you think has you "stuck" there... is it worth your life? You are just as dead if the stupid and ineffective thug is behind the gun, knife or chunk of rebar. And all it really takes is ONE of them... eventually.

You can't hide deep enough.

My community is at least 100 miles from the nearest population center (about 50,000 people) and several hundred miles from the nearest metro center (Denver). We know that at least some of those people will manage to get out this far... but there are cretins and parasites in every town, so no place is safe.

We are prepared to defend ourselves, but it won't be easy.
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knobster

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2010, 04:54:24 am »

There is a good article on this very topic on JWR's blog:

http://www.survivalblog.com/
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Radio Flyer

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2010, 05:23:23 am »


Just remember that their numbers will be greater in the beginning. The stupid, lazy and ineffective will die off rather quickly and they will kill each other, probably in rather large numbers at first.


We can only hope that actually happens.

Quote

As they move out into the rural areas, their numbers will be fewer, but they will tend to be the more intelligent and resourceful survivors of the city types. They still won't know squat about woodcraft or much of anything else connected with survival, but will have the incentive (hunger and rage) and the weapons to present a serious threat.


I think that there are two threats to look at - medium to larger cities will collapse on themselves, you mention lack of woodcraft, I think it is a general desire NOT to be "in the boonies" and the fact that there is just not much "out there" for them, they will stay near what is familiar.

I just finished the article written by a reader on the site - I agree about the "wannabees" slogging it out into the "woods" there will be hundreds of idiots trying just this thing.

Many "billy joes" most likely have some vague plans for "bugging out" with their deer rifle and fishing rods to try this - thankfully most of them will be in badly designed summer weather tents and freeze to death the first winter or be found years later where they died passing their guts out from an infection from contaminated water or eating some poor rabbit with the nasties...

The mountains will be dangerous for several reasons, as will national forests, and wild areas.

Places full of "billy joes" and competitive groups like the eastern US and high population areas like Texas will become death pits.

For once it was a good read, and backs up what lots of us hear have been saying - this is going to be bad.
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Voxx147

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2010, 09:37:06 am »

There is a good article on this very topic on JWR's blog:

http://www.survivalblog.com/

I read this site quite often, good timing for this article it looks like  :thumbsup:
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NuclearDruid

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2010, 09:54:10 am »

A couple of other things to think about. Know the towns history. Was it a frontier town that never developed or a small town that popped up after the advent of trains and roads. The former were more likely selected because of a combination of resources and defensibility from raids. The latter are more likely to exist because of some economic convenience. Hungry hoardes and armies are like water and tend to follow the path of least resistance. The walk along a river until there is a place to ford it, they circumnavigate a bluff rather than go up and over.

Look at your region in terms of military geography. The Romans with their large, organized armies were able to dominate the Britons within the western highlands and control most of the island. The Saxons, with their "legions" of maybe 50 to 100 men-at-arms couldn't for hundreds of years (which, coincidently, led to a schism of the Britons and a distinct Welsh culture.)

Of course, the converse is that difficult geography usually dovetails with low food productivity.

ND
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mutti

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2010, 10:21:50 am »

I found the Survival Blog article interesting. Just a few points:

I really feel like an ass saying this, so here it goes:

1. By the time "we" get to the point at the end of the SurvivalBlog commentary - a dead body or starving person will be looked at similar to cord wood. Something to move from point a to point b for a purpose. It isn't pretty and most of us don't like to admit it, but if one cannot get past that point of "realization" -  you are probably not going to make it.

2. I think the estimates of "bad guys" is a little high for the intiial count. Out of 100,000 people in a city - I'd say you'd start with 1% really bad guy percentage and 4% potential powerful stupid guy percentage. Hopefully those factions will work on each other a bit before they head your way.

3. Never is taken into account true EMP/Nuke issue. Dead population/radiation poisoning = not going anywhere fast. Or at least with a minimum range at a slower speed.

4. Extending the hand of kindness is good. Always make sure to use your off hand in case you have to react.

mutti
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Rarick

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2010, 08:01:12 am »

What was that survival soap opera a couple years back?  A small town, with neighbors of a similar mindset might be able to set up an old fashioned "county".   "Tower Houses" on the borders with Manufacturing in the core, and manpower to deal with the real big organized gangs (The Humongous in Mad Max?).   It sounds like some one else has a setup very like where I will be headed.

An aside, does the small town have some sort of airstrip?  If a family member has a plane, it might be a good thing.   There are some Biodiesel aviation engine out there.........
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Wolfe

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2010, 02:49:13 pm »

What I had wondered about also.

When things fall apart will the gangs attack each other?

I think primarily of two gangs. The first is a gang or loose coalition of friends and thugs allready "joined" up before the crunch and know most members and have some sort of camaradie..
The second is, after the crunch the "bad guys" group together and form some sort of gang working together and having some of the same basic agenda's

If there is not law enforcement/military in thier way the only other oppostion may be other gangs.
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MamaLiberty

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2010, 03:12:54 pm »

If there is not law enforcement/military in thier way the only other oppostion may be other gangs.

Yes, they will probably fight each other. Good riddance.

But if they attack people like me, we will definitely be serious "opposition." We're armed, and we know how to shoot. What's more, we are willing to pull the trigger.
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Rarick

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Re: Bug In small/medium town
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2010, 05:09:07 am »

There will be a serious winnowing of the population in the cities, between gangs, between the gangs and neighborhood watches that got 'roids, the police and military will be a factor until they realize things have gone all the way sideways and pear shaped.   The people that are on the leading edge of the exodus will be us, the people up to a week behind will be the Rams and Goats that woke up.  anyone coming out of the cities after a that will be the displaced losers of the city warzones, maybe looking to conquer territory, or just shattered remnants looking for a home.  Be wary, careful and generally do not trust them unless they approach in an "honest trade mode" first.

The small towns probably have the best chance at making a go of it- they will just have to be off the main drag and hold out thru the first winter or two.  They will need some means of generating their own power (hydro/coal/gas/wood?) and good water/sewer.
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........Duct tape is like the force, it has a light side, a darkside and holds the universe together.  It is theoretically reinforced with strings too.  (The dome has a darkside, lightside and strings of rebar for reinforcement too!)
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Most of the time news is about the same old violations of the first principles of consent and golden rule with a dash of force thrown in........ with just enough duct tape to be believable.
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