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[Bear]

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

If you knew all hell were to break out two months from now, what would you do to prepare over the next two months?

In 2 months I will have the cold frame finished, and maybe the horse coral up, but that's it.
We won't have the water tank in place, nor any net-metering wind power. We'd be better
off than most, but not as prepared as we know we should be.

If I knew for a fact that TS would HTF in 2 months, I might borrow some money to help
things along, but it wouldn't make that much of a difference. Some things just take time,
and that isn't enough time to make them happen.

Bear

"Do what you can, with what you've got, where you are."

[Silver]

What would the Misery Index be if we used the real rate of inflation
and actual unemployment rate, not just those getting benefits?

Those are the numbers I'm quoting.  John Williams tries to reconstruct the real unemployment and inflation figures.  Go to Shadowstats.com to get the full story.

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

If you knew all hell were to break out two months from now, what would you do to prepare over the next two months?

As far as I can tell, all hell is breaking out now, and has been for several years.

I'm not prepared to grow all of my food and live off the grid - and I never will be.  I may end up living that way, and it will probably be a nasty, short life.  I'm prepping for temporary disruptions, but planning that life goes on.  I'm pretty sure the dollar will die, so I'm busy getting rid of them in trades for things I might want, use, or trade later.

Peace,

Silver

[tex703]

If I knew things would go bad in 2 months I would still continue to get what I needed in supplies and then convince my wife that we need to go to the ranch and live off the grid for a while with her relatives.  Hopefully we could wait things out and survive.  I want to be an optimist and hope and pray things get better slowly, but I am 50/50 on that.  I do see another major economic recession within the next year or so.  As far as misery, well, I try to do whats right by me and my family and leave others alone.  Call me lame but I am looking forward to college football and the NFL to take my mind off the politics and economy of our country for awhile.  And I want to enjoy my new patio that we just built and get in some smoking and bbq'ng.

[Silver]

Latest SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.8%

Misery Index: 34.0%, a new record high.

Williams commented on questions regarding unemployment during the Depression of the 1930s. 

As discussed in previous writings, an unemployment rate nearing 23% might raise questions in terms of a comparison with the purported peak unemployment in the Great Depression (1933) of 25%.  The SGS level likely is about as bad as the peak unemployment seen in the 1973 to 1975 recession.  The Great Depression unemployment rate was estimated well after the fact, with 27% of those employed working on farms.  Today, less that 2% work on farms.  Accordingly, for purposes of Great Depression comparison, I would look at the estimated peak nonfarm unemployment rate in 1933 of 34% to 35%.

Expect the inflation number to pick up sharply in the next few months.

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

Latest SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.4%
Unemployment: 22.8%

Misery Index: 34.2%, a new record high.   

Even "core" inflation, which thebenbernank loves because it is lower (for those who don't eat food or use energy) continues its relentless march upward since the start of QE2 last October.  It is now nearly 2%.

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

October 7th update of SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.4%                                                                                     
Unemployment: 23.1%, up 0.3%                 

Misery Index: 34.5%, a new record high.  No wonder the Occupy Wall Street protests are spreading.  



Peace,

Silver

[knobster]

Yikes.  The misery index peaked at a mere 21.98% during the Carter Administration.

[gaurdduck]

October 7th update of SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.4%                                                                                     
Unemployment: 23.1%, up 0.3%                 

Misery Index: 34.5%, a new record high.  No wonder the Occupy Wall Street protests are spreading.  



Peace,

Silver

I worry that the majority of the ones in this movement know so little about Economics and political systems that they may begin to clamor for outright and open socialism.

[Jebur27]

I worry that the majority of the ones in this movement know so little about Economics and political systems that they may begin to clamor for outright and open socialism.

May?!?

Have you seen the Proposed List Of Demands For Occupy Wall St Movement! 

Granted, they (finally) marked it as "User Submitted", but they gave it a prominent place on their web site.  Also, many of the comments (especially the earlier ones) seem to support the gist of the list.  For instance, I recall that someone suggested that the minimum wage should be $20.00/hr.  Apparently, they gave no thought to what that would do to the cost of their Grande Mocha Latte or Whopper. 

[Lightning]

Yikes.  The misery index peaked at a mere 21.98% during the Carter Administration.

Really puts things in perspective, that. Both about what's really going on and about how much of that reality the offishul stats are hiding.

[da gooch]

Latest SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.7%

Misery Index: 33.9%, still at the record high.

There is a recent, sobering paper from the Auburn University Economics Department.
Demographic Change, Macroeconomic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934 to 2006 (free PDF)

[snip - snip]

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

It's worth reading.

Peace,

Silver

Late to the party as usual but I don't find a pdf named as the link is named at that url.

Is there a direct link so I can download this read it and possibly share it with friends and family?

Ne'er mind ... I found it on the front page of the authors CV.
( http://auburn.edu/~ras0029/ )


Thanks Silver

[Silver]

October 19th update of SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.5%  up 0.1%  
Unemployment: 23.1%, 

Misery Index: 34.6%, a new record high.  The Occupy Wall Street protests are still spreading....  
                   
                 
Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

SGS highlights from November 2012:
• Hyperinflation by End of 2014
• Heavy Global Selling of U.S. Dollar Could Hit With Little Warning
• Don’t Blame Intensifying Economic Downturn on Sandy or the “Fiscal Cliff”
• Physical Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge

Unemployment:  22.9%
Price Inflation: 10%

Misery Index: 32.9%, down from the peak of 34.5% set last year, half again the ~22% peaks during the Carter presidency.

Peace,

Silver

[DiabloLoco]

• Heavy Global Selling of U.S. Dollar Could Hit With Little Warning

I have a feeling that the US Dollar index dipping into the low 70's will trigger the sell-off. What do you think Silver?