Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Silver]

I think the dollar index is a lagging indicator.  After people start massive selling, then the dollar index falls. 

I'm sure there are some folks out there who watch the dollar index, and might start selling when it hits some trip point, but the kind of massive, unexpected sell-off that John Williams is warning about happens precisely because tens of millions of people who may not even know what the dollar index is decide that holding dollars is a bad idea.  Not currency speculators, but small businesses, people who hold US government bonds, people who decide they want more gold, or silver, or oil, or access to food.

I've used this metaphor before, but it still applies:

We are sitting on a large stack of gunpowder kegs.  There are fuses running everywhere, in knots and tangles.  There are lit torches.  We can hear fuses sputtering.  We can smell the smoke.

We know exactly what is going to happen, we just don't know when.  When it finally does happen, it will be over very quickly.

The way to leave the trap is to get rid of as many of your dollars as possible, converting them into something that won't be blown to smithereens.  It's easier said than done, but it is the only escape from the stack of powder kegs.

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

SGS latest:

Unemployment:  23%
Price Inflation: 9.4%%

Misery Index: 32.4%, down from the peak of 34.5% set last year, half again the ~22% peaks during the Carter presidency.

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

February 2013 inflation and unemployment figures, from SGS:

Unemployment:  23%
Price Inflation: 9.6%

Misery Index: 32.6%

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

April 2013 inflation and unemployment figures, from SGS:

Unemployment:  23%
Price Inflation: 8.7%

Misery Index: 31.7%

Inflation has abated slightly but not significantly.  Unemployment remains very high as the economy is destroyed by the parasitism of government and the money created by the federal reserve.

These levels are not sustainable.  Many sub-population, such as young black males, have unemployment well over 50%. There is growing desperation on all fronts.  I see it directly and in the (real) news.  If this summer is hot, things could get ugly.  All it would take is a spark.

Peace,

Silver

[DiabloLoco]

Thanks for keeping this thread updated Silver.

Quick question, what is SGS? Can you provide a link?

Thx,
DL

[Silver]

May/June 2013 inflation and unemployment figures, from SGS:

Unemployment:  23.4%
Price Inflation: 9%

Misery Index: 32.4%

Inflation has ticked up.  Over 90% of the US treasure debt is now directly monetized by the fed.

Unemployment ticked up as well. 

Peace,

Silver

[knobster]

Thanks for keeping this thread updated Silver.

Quick question, what is SGS? Can you provide a link?

Thx,
DL

SGS is Shadow Government Statistics

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Provided by John Williams.  Careful though, you can get sucked in for hours on this site.  His hyperinflation updates will scare the crap out of you.

[DiabloLoco]

Thanks for keeping this thread updated Silver.

Quick question, what is SGS? Can you provide a link?

Thx,
DL

SGS is Shadow Government Statistics

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Provided by John Williams.  Careful though, you can get sucked in for hours on this site.  His hyperinflation updates will scare the crap out of you.

Thx for responding. I have a feeling that "Silver" has me on ignore...... Meh.....

[Rarick]

I check the "Unsuscribed" areas frequently.  Shadow Stats is an awesome tool that matches up with my personal observations quite well.  The govt. numbers do not, which makes then suspect.

Anout 1 in 4 of my adult freinds around here is out of work, of those that have work 2/3 to 3/4 of then are part time job churning to make ends meet, and the last 1/4 are chugging along happy with their life or business. 

Strangely enough all of them are now armed, and some of them went hungry to do so........so the misery index is about right, everyone except for maybe 2 exceptions I can think about, I know has to skimp on some necessity if they need to cover contingencies.  I consider that is part of the "Conspiracy of Dependance" the govt started back during the johmson administration afdter getting the right camel noses under the tent in 1913 and 1930 or thereabouts......

[Silver]

SGS is Shadow Government Statistics

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Provided by John Williams.  Careful though, you can get sucked in for hours on this site.  His hyperinflation updates will scare the crap out of you.

Indeed.  If the Hyperinflation Special Report doesn't keep  you up at night,  take a peek at the U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2012 Financial Data
GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Short version: we're freaking doomed!

Slightly longer version: see my comments on this report, February 2013

Peace,

Silver

[Silver]

July 17, 2013 updated inflation figures from SGS:

Unemployment:  23.4%
Price Inflation: 9.4%

Misery Index: 32.8%

Inflation continues to rise.  The trillion-dollar per year money creation by the fed is the only thing propping up bond, stock, and real estate prices.  There is no exit strategy.  There is no exit.  The fed has chosen the inflationary route, and hyperinflation is increasingly likely.

Peace,

Silver

[knobster]

Indeed.  If the Hyperinflation Special Report doesn't keep  you up at night,  take a peek at the U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2012 Financial Data
GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Short version: we're freaking doomed!

Slightly longer version: see my comments on this report, February 2013

Peace,

Silver

Oh it doesn't seem that bad.  Why, the very first line:

The 2012 fiscal condition of the United States suffered its worst annual deterioration in the history of the Republic.

See?  Nothing scary at all.

But wait, what's this gem?

The federal government’s annual fiscal circumstances are even worse than as indicated by the headline numbers above.  Noted, but not tallied in the government’s financial statements are major government programs that technically are insolvent.  Official liabilities do not include a full accounting for existing exposures or related funding that will be needed to support programs that either have, or have as a practical matter, the full faith and credit of the United States behind them.  Those entities include the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), the U.S. Postal Service and the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), as well as the circumstances surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

So all those gov't programs that are financial black holes (or, more appropriately, red) are not included in the tally.  Wonderful.  What do they call it?  Creative accounting?  These idiots deserve a lampost and some rope.

I would go on but my blood is boiling...

[Silver]

If I used government accounting methods in my business I would expect to be sent to jail - and I would accept the punishment as just and proper.  Of course, if I used government accounting methods my business would fail in very short order.  Reality doesn't change no matter how artfully one sautes the spreadsheets.

Peace,

Silver

[Bear]

If I used government accounting methods in my business I would expect to be sent to jail - and I would accept the punishment as just and proper.  Of course, if I used government accounting methods my business would fail in very short order.  Reality doesn't change no matter how artfully one sautes the spreadsheets.

Peace,

Silver

Your business would fail because it's chained to reality, and you can't print your own money
and force people to accept it, as the government can.

Which brings up a point - we've been circling the drain for awhile. Why hasn't the hyperinflation
kicked in already? (I'm not rooting for it, but I am scratching my head and wondering.)

Bear

[Silver]

Hyperinflation is a psycological phenomenon.  It doesn't happen  at a given level of debasement. If the destruction of the currency is done slowly enough, and/or if there are enough distractions, geegaws, bread and circuses, and other sops to the masses, the debasement can continue to extreme levels.

Like ours, where in 100 years our money has lost at least 97% of its value.

Hyperinflation occurs when the distractions and "free" stuff no longer do the trick.  When everyman realizes that not only is he being screwed, but that the screwing is deliberate, that it benefits TPTB, and that it will never stop.

Then, and only then, does everyman start to get rid of their fiat scrip as quickly as possible.  The velocity of money goes through the roof, and prices explode.  The hyperinflation reaches several percent a day or even more.  It stops only when the political pressure to stop the madness overcomes the benefits accruing to the oligarchy.  That will probably take a long, long time here, so the destruction will be particularly severe and extreme.

Peace,

Silver