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Author Topic: Misery Index  (Read 68267 times)

Silver

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Misery Index
« on: July 08, 2011, 12:32:50 pm »

The Misery Index was popular in the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s.  It is the sum of the unemployment and inflation figures.

To keep the comparisons with earlier computations of the misery index meaningful, I always use figures from John Williams' shadowstats.com.

January 1975
Inflation: 11.8%
Unemployment: 8.1%

Misery Index: 19.9

June 1980

Inflation: 9.6%
Unemployment: 12.4%

Misery Index 22.0

January 1981

Inflation: 11.8%
Unemployment: 7.5%

Misery Index 19.3

fast forward 30 years:

June 3, 2011

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.3%
Misery index: 33.5  :puke:

July 8, 2011

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.7%
Misery index: 33.9  :puke: :puke:

Peace,

Silver

« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 11:09:41 am by Silver »
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Moonbeam

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2011, 02:12:26 pm »

Are you one of those, "The glass is half-empty" folks?!   :laugh:
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Freedom is not being able to do what you want to do; freedom is being able to NOT do what you don't want to do.

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Silver

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2011, 02:48:08 pm »

I'm an optimist and a nerd.  The glass isn't half empty; the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.
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Moonbeam

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2011, 03:36:52 pm »

And you're a pragmatist, too! Me, I'm one of those, "Not only is the glass half-full, but it's filthy."  :rolleyes:
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I'm not where I want to be, but I'm better than where I was!

Freedom is not being able to do what you want to do; freedom is being able to NOT do what you don't want to do.

"We must not amuse ourselves with the notion that we have done something when we have only formed a good resolution. Power comes by doing and not by resolving." Charlotte Mason

"Don't hurt people and don't take their stuff." Courtesy of FreedomWorks

Klapton Isgod

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2011, 06:20:51 pm »

There is no glass.  They are just pissing in our mouth now.
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gaurdduck

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2011, 07:04:54 pm »

Sorry, I only see ones and zeroes... No glass, no piss, just life as a power source for the machines unless you took the red pill.
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Silver

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2011, 07:50:05 pm »

Yeah, there are only 10 kinds of people in the world: those that understand binary, and those that don't.
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gaurdduck

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2011, 01:25:29 am »

Yeah, there are only 10 kinds of people in the world: those that understand binary, and those that don't.

That would be 01...

10 in base 2 = 1 in base 10
01 in base 2 = 2 in base 10

1 2 4 8 16 32 etc... it's about adding and subtracting.
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Silver

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2011, 05:46:35 am »

I'm not going to be drawn into a discussion of endianness.  Let's talk about misery instead.

Besides, Wiki says I'm right, so it must be so.
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Jebur27

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2011, 06:02:13 am »

As the Mrs. says, "Not only is the glass 1/2 empty.someone is going to spill the rest."
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Silver

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2011, 03:17:53 pm »

Latest SGS figures:

Inflation: 11.2%
Unemployment: 22.7%

Misery Index: 33.9%, still at the record high.

There is a recent, sobering paper from the Auburn University Economics Department.
Demographic Change, Macroeconomic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934 to 2006 (free PDF)

Quote
Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S.
population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age-crime hypothesis. By examining a
longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s,, we show that the percentage of the young
population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time.
However, changes in the misery index the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates
significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to
those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the
decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle
of the 1980s.

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

It's worth reading.

Peace,

Silver

edited 9-21-14 to fix link rot
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 10:55:24 am by Silver »
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Moonbeam

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2011, 04:03:29 pm »

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

If you knew all hell were to break out two months from now, what would you do to prepare over the next two months?
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I'm not where I want to be, but I'm better than where I was!

Freedom is not being able to do what you want to do; freedom is being able to NOT do what you don't want to do.

"We must not amuse ourselves with the notion that we have done something when we have only formed a good resolution. Power comes by doing and not by resolving." Charlotte Mason

"Don't hurt people and don't take their stuff." Courtesy of FreedomWorks

Bear

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2011, 05:31:46 pm »

What would the Misery Index be if we used the real rate of inflation
and actual unemployment rate, not just those getting benefits?

Bear
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gaurdduck

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2011, 05:40:45 pm »

What would the Misery Index be if we used the real rate of inflation
and actual unemployment rate, not just those getting benefits?

Bear


Outrageous, that's what.
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mutti

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Re: Misery Index
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2011, 05:51:15 pm »

If the paper is correct, and their evidence is strong, then we are in deep trouble.  The combination of demographics and misery index at all time highs portends a huge rise in violent crimes, including but not limited to murder.

If you knew all hell were to break out two months from now, what would you do to prepare over the next two months?

This doesn't help much, but I try to live my life each day in Freedom. Don't focus on TSHTF - focus on being better/more prepared for  your situation. Two simple words : Do Right sound really easy, but are very hard to live up to.

If something should happen tomorrow to me, I would hope my Obit would say: Mother, Wife and Friend. She tried to Do Right each day. That's all I need.

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