Just wondering if you could give your thoughts about the current plunge in the gold/silver markets. Causes? Effects? etc.....
Thank you for the compliments.
I'm not sure of the cause. Paul Craig Roberts, no fool, points to the fed.
The Assault on GoldAssault on Gold UpdateThe circumstantial evidence is certainly compelling. The fed has strong motives, ample means, and multiple opportunities. The evidence is thin, but these are people who are adept at hiding their tracks. I find Roberts's thesis plausible.
The fundamental economics are compelling. They are stronger for gold and silver than ever. The fed is creating $1 trillion (with a T) new dollars annually. If they were to stop, the stock and bond markets would implode in a matter of days, weeks at the outside. The economic recovery is a hallucination, as anyone who walks and talks in the real world can see. The stock market is peaking precisely because the fed has jammed a huge firehose of money into an unmentionable orifice and is pumping furiously. Nearly all federal spending is based on printed/created money, with tax receipts much less than half of expenditures.
The printing presses burned out a long time ago, now the money must be created by bits alone. Paper and ink are too slow.
Cyprus sends a message that only dunces will ignore. The precedent has been set. It is only a matter of time until US bank accounts are harvested in the same fashion. The banks in Cyprus were closed for 2 weeks, and when opened would allow only a few hundred per day to be withdrawn. How long would most people last under those restrictions? How many would fall behind on mortgage, car, and credit card payments? Does anyone think the creditors will give a pass because of the troubled times?
How much different would one's life be if there was a sack of silver quarters stowed safely to hand?
None of these things suggest a valid reason for gold and silver prices to tumble. There are some technical excuses, mostly variations on the theme that large funds must sell when the price is falling.
No matter the cause, I view this as an opportunity to buy. If someone wanted to buy gold and silver a few months ago, but thought they were too expensive, what is the excuse now? If the purchase isn't made after the price drops, will it be made when the price rises?
If the market is being manipulated, it is done with paper contracts, naked short selling. Small fry can take advantage of this to buy physical gold and silver bullion coins, and taking delivery. Store the metal in a safe place. That's all. Trade paper and/or digital bits for physical metal.
Do it while it is still possible.
As for effects, I expect the truly wealthy nations (those that produce more than they consume) to start loading up on gold. I expect small buyers all over the planet to buy until the shelves as empty as the ammo aisle at Walmart stores are today.
I expect the truly wealthy nations to move away from the dollar. When and how, I don't know, but they would be fools to allow the fed to manipulate their trade, and these are not fools.
I expect the price of gold and silver to go roaring back up. I just can't say when. It might be tomorrow, it might be months from now. I doubt it will be years from now.
Doug Casey says that the price of gold isn't going to the sky, it is going to the moon. I think he is right. I suspect we are in that calm period just before the final countdown begins. Once the rocket is launched, it is too late to buy a ticket. If you want to ride, this may be the last chance.
FWIW, I've bought gold, and silver, and gold stocks. I've been hammered, on paper, of late. I sleep well. The metal is safe. The stocks were speculative bets, I can afford to lose them all, though of course I would rather not. I'm not buying now, because I spent my money when the price fell to $1500. If I had more to spend, I would be buying more now.
I hedge my bets. Not all of my wealth is in gold. I diversify. Everyone should. The question is not whether you should own gold and silver, but what fraction of your total wealth should be in precious metals. That is a question that every one has to answer for themselves.
Peace,
Silver