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Author Topic: FSP 2006 Deadline  (Read 21213 times)

kbarrett

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FSP 2006 Deadline
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2004, 11:12:53 am »

Quote
BTW - most beautiful country I ever saw was in Idaho and Montana when I drove through there (slowly) in 1984. I'll be driving through it again this fall on my way East.
The voices in your head are telling you to stop in Montana and stay..... listen to them......  :P

 
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H.M. WoggleBug, T.E.

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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2004, 03:40:20 pm »

Unfortunately, Montana decided that stopping an RV on private property (WalMart) was against the law so they passed an ordinance making it illegal.

They did that at the behest of campground owners too chickens*it to compete and who bawled to the legislature that it was wrong.

So I won't be stopping for long in MT, and I'll probably only stop at WalMarts. Doubt I'll pay any tickets, though.

'Bug
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Boston T. Party

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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2005, 03:52:23 pm »

Well, when will the FSP reach 20,000?

At its current (and also declining) rate of 15 confirmed new signers/week,
http://www.freestateproject.org/about/membership.php

...the FSP will need 907 weeks to attain its 20,000.  

That's right...17½ years from now.


Does the FSP honestly expect its members to wait until the year 2022 before the relocation
pledge for all is activated?  This is absurd.  Nothing in the FSP literature ever explained
that the pledge would be, in effect, an open-ended timeline.  2022?  Gee.  Most of
FSPers will be eligible for Social Security by then.

(NOTE:  At the FSP's higher unconfirmed signer rate, they're still looking at 571 weeks, or
February 2016.  17½ years, 11 years--it's still way off from NEXT year.)

And what are FSPers expected to do in the face of this?  Simply move to NH anyway, before
the FSP even (if ever) reaches 20,000?  Uh, no, that wasn't the deal.  The point of a
September 2006 deadline was to activate a calculated critical mass to relocate within 5
years of that--not dribble in before such a critical mass was even close to having been
achieved.

20,000 molecules of sulphur were to accumulate on a bare match head by 2006, and then
conflagrate into a burst of spectacular migration and incendiary political activism.

That, and none other, was the plan and purpose of the FSP.

Now, if the FSP thinks they will be able to continue locking up a large portion of the free state
market in the face of achieving only 38% of 20,000 by next September, they are very much mistaken.
7,500 signers (at current rate) is not even "close" to the stated goal.  "The Great FSP Recruiting Push of 2005"
(and one for 2006, too) notwithstanding, the FSP is topped out, and everyone knows it.  

That's why such "Animal Farm" verbiage is being embraced by the FSP:
"All deadlines are official, but some deadlines are less official than others!"


Quote
Posted by: debra (on The Claire Files)
Feb 21 2004, 07:38 AM

The position (and as a former board member, officer, and Member #23, I oughtta know) was
always that we had to hit 20,000 by 9/1/2006 *or were very close*, i.e. 19K, or we'd shut
down. I even referenced it in my speech to the Clark County LP (on the FSP's website).
   But now the new leadership (with Jason's apparent approval) is backtracking, saying that
the 2006 thing is "unofficial" (even though it's in the faq and press releases) and that
they *might* shut down if they aren't close ("close" being defined as 15K or so?!).
   What kills me is that even if they only have 6000, they're saying that they'd be within
their rights to stay open for another 30 years. So if you stay in an area you prefer
(because of family, climate, you don't think the FSP will pan out, etc), they're saying that
they can call you up in 2031 and say Hey, golly, the 20K's finally been reached. Get your
Geritol and come on out here." And you'd be morally and contractually bound to do it.
   I'm absolutely furious because the September 2006 thing was very, very, VERY clear in the
beginning, and just like the bastard feds with the Commerce Clause, they've "interpreted" to
mean something completely different from what was originally stated.
   The FSP was supposed to be different, damnit.



From:    libertymls@keepandbeararms.com
Subject:      Re: [FSP] Digest Number 1020
Date:    November 26, 2004 11:15:42 PM EST
To:    freestateproject@yahoogroups.com

At any rate, my understanding of the commitment i signed was 20K by 9/06, then 5 yrs to
move. And I was in on the original discussions, and that's what i believed I was signing in
8/01. I would never have signed an open ended commitment, ... if the 20K wasn't reached for
20 yrs, for example, the only move I'd be likely to make is into a nursing home.


Mary Lou Seymour and Debra Ricketts (both very early members and directors) cried "Bullsh*t!"

So do I.

New Hampshire is already taking in 20,000 annual relocators from Mass., N.Y., etc.--so what on
earth do a few thousand FSPers hope to accomplish as they dribble in over the next decade or two?
That state should never have been on the ballot.  Its overpopulous/swelling demographics preclude any
reasonable expectation of FSP success.

The FSP--for all its great people, organization, efforts, and media coverage--is clearly stalling out.
What to do?  Well, Jason Sorens himself had the answer over three years ago:

"In the event our membership drive falls short of expectations, [Wyoming] may well be our only
realistic choice.
 20K is approximately 9% of the voting block, without any added effort or local
support.  From an exclusively pragmatic point of view, Wyoming is the best default choice."
   -- Jason Sorens, FSP website State Data Chart, October 2001 (emphasis added)

Now all he has to do is own up to the "falls short of expectations" part...

Boston T. Party
http://www.freestatewyoming.org
wyoming_freestate@yahoo.com
« Last Edit: February 04, 2005, 09:39:11 am by Boston T. Party »
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Leonidas the Younger

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FSP 2006 Deadline
« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2005, 10:31:17 am »

Hey Boston,

Just wanted to chime in and say "THANK YOU" for your gun Bible. It's a terrific resource. Along with every other book of yours I've read.

I should be building myself a FAL in the not too distant future :)

As for the FSP, I am glad I read this thread, it confirms my foggy memory that the FSP would "self abort" if 20,000 members were not recruited by a specified date.

I'm member number 2xxx ... forget exactly which, I have the paper around here ... somewhere ... *lol*

-- Leonidas
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Boston T. Party

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« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2005, 09:38:44 am »

To:  LeonidasTheYounger
 
Thanks for your kind praise of BGB.  Good luck on building your FAL.
It's pretty straightforward, but do be careful not to bugger up the headspacing lug.  

Regarding the FSP "self-abort" part, it was contained (among other places) in an FAQ dated February of 2002:

Quote
22Q. What is the time frame for the Free State Project?

22A. The Participation Guidelines state that a signature on the
Statement of Intent becomes void if three years pass before we reach
5,000 members and select the state. The Participation Guidelines also
state that once we reach 20,000 members, everyone has five years to
move to the selected state. The Participation Guidelines do not specify
a requisite time period between reaching 5,000 members and reaching
20,000 members. However, the assumption has always been that if 20,000
is not close at hand within five years of the launch of the Free State
Project (officially September 1st, 2001), the Project will fold.
To get
20,000 signers within five years, we will need approximately 11 new
signatures per day on average. In the month of February 2002 we
averaged 4 new signatures per day. Once we expand our publicity efforts
to print advertising, an average of 11 per day should be well within
reach.  (emphasis added by BTP)

http://web.archive.org/web/20020810193610/...ct.org/faqs.htm


OK, now contrast that 2002 FAQ with the modern version:

Quote
WHEN
Q: What is the time frame for the Free State Project?

A: The Participation Guidelines state that once we reach 20,000 participants, everyone has five years to move to New Hampshire.
The Participation Guidelines do not specify a requisite time period for reaching 20,000. However, the Project's goal is to reach
20,000 participants by September 2006.

http://freestateproject.org/about/faq.php


Notice how the sentence about the FSP folding if it doesn't make 20,000 by 2006, is--uh--gone.  
Gone, right down the Orwellian memory hole.

To make deadline, the FSP will have to get 179 confirmed signers/week for the next 76 weeks.  
This is 12 times their current rate.  Ain't gonna happen.  And if the FSP soons begins to claim
a dramatic and consistent upswing in their numbers which seem to point to making their deadline,
a LOT of folks will be VERY curious to learn exactly how this came about.  Me especially.

However, Jason and I agree on one overriding fact:

"In the event our membership drive falls short of expectations, [Wyoming] may well be our only
realistic choice."
     -- Jason Sorens, FSP website State Data Chart, October 2001

NH always was a dead-end free state street.  Now, it is mathematically clear that the FSP won't
have the gas to get even there.   They've had their chance.  Perhaps the free state market
(regardless of the state chosen by vote) just wasn't large enough to entice 20,000 signers by 9/2006.  
Perhaps the choice of NH severely limited interest.  Who knows?  But when you start changing
your FAQs ala 1984's Ministry of Truth in order to hide something crucial, it tarnishes the
credibility of any organization--particularly a libertarian one.

Boston T. Party
http://www.freestatewyoming.org
wyoming_freestate@yahoo.com


 
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Ian

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« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2005, 01:52:15 pm »

Actually, the current legitimate membership is notably lower than the published number of about 6300. There was a policy in place that anyone who didn't vote in the state-choice election would be presumed no longer a member, and dropped along with those who had opted out of the chosen state. They didn't expect half the membership to ignore the vote, though, and were never willing to cut those people out. Because of that, the true membership is around 4,000. At the current growth rate, they won't hit the goal for 20.5 years (1066 weeks).
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Boston T. Party

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« Reply #21 on: February 04, 2005, 05:31:27 pm »

Ian wrote:
Quote
They didn't expect half the membership to ignore the vote, though, and were never willing to cut those people out. Because of that, the true membership is around 4,000.  At the current growth rate, they won't hit the goal for 20.5 years (1066 weeks).

Ian, you're quite correct:

Quote
First, the bad news, which many have known for a while: many participants who signed up before the state vote began in August 2003 never voted in that election, casting doubt on their commitment to the Project. Since then, several hundred of these participants have confirmed that they would like to remain in the FSP. However, almost two thousand have remained out of contact. We will continue trying to contact these unconfirmed members, while still recognizing that we won't be able to reach all of them.  (emphasis added by BTP)

   -- Jason Sorens, http://freestateproject.org/news/items/push.php

1066 weeks, or until the summer of 2025.  Sigh.

Good people with great organization who tried very hard, but...
Will they honorably and wisely choose to fold that hand, or hang on until the bitter end?

Heck, the FSP could partially salvage this by opening up an FSP West in Wyoming.
I would personally help such an effort.  I only want to see the most suitable state
for a free state goal fill up with like-minded folks--even if a "competing" org helped
to do it.  It wouldn't really matter to me if people came to Wyoming under a banner
other than the FSW's.

Boston T. Party
http://www.freestatewyoming.org
wyoming_freestate@yahoo.com  
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Boston T. Party

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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2005, 10:15:33 am »

Correction on the annual NH migration #s:

about 20,000/year is the positive inflow
the net inflow (i.e., the more relevant figure) is about 9-10,000--nearly all of whom from Mass. and NY.

Still, even at this rate, NH by 2025 will have 180,000 to 200,000 more people there,
swelling the state to about 1,500,000.  And what are 20,000 FSPers expecting to
accomplish there?

Boston
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Mostly Harmless

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« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2005, 10:43:46 am »

Quote
New Hampshire is already taking in 20,000 annual relocators from Mass., N.Y., etc.--so what on
earth do a few thousand FSPers hope to accomplish as they dribble in over the next decade or two?
And the trouble with that is, according to a friend of mine who's a lifetime NH resident and FSP member, the MA & NY migrants are all fleeing the excessive state bureaucracy and high taxes and then discovering that NH doesn't have the services they "need".

So what do they do? Vote for higher taxes and nanny state laws. BS like making it illegal to drink anything (even water) while driving... Which is why, every time I drive across the state line I take a swig from the sports bottle of water I keep in the car.

The MA/NY refugees are also responsible for the plague of McMansions springing up in southern NH and driving up property prices. By the time I can afford to move, I won't be able to afford to move.
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penguinsscareme

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« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2005, 12:03:43 pm »

Regardless.  At the rate it's going currently, it won't matter.  The fsp is circling the drain, and I see no evidence to the contrary.
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The utter waste of our $2,000,000,000 a day military-industrial machine was never demonstrated more vividly than on 9/11.

You do what works.

Joel

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« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2005, 12:25:34 pm »

Well, it's sad.

Seemed like a good idea, right up to the New Hampshire thing.  I kinda felt bad about not signing up, until I saw that vote.  Then I was glad, because it meant I hadn't made a promise I'd have to renege on.
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ZooT_aLLures

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« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2005, 01:37:32 pm »

BTP,

The fact remains that while for the most part are very big on words, from what I see they're very small on actions except those of possibly direct personal benefit NOW.....
I'll invite you to go wandering through the very recent past and check out the Ron Paul thread
I proposed a very simple action in which we'd accept "pledges" through which to take Ron Pauls pay out of government hands and place it into the hands of voluntary contributors by our own free will and choice in addition to monies stolen to pay for current government.
It wasn't much......but it was something

The thread stayed on the front page for I think three days, and we got about $400 a year(mostly from those most active on these forums).

This wasn't even a "real" action, as of yet....but only pledges.
The fact is while people will hammer their keyboards into dust bitching and whining, when an idea(whether good, bad or indifferent) comes along, no one wants to get involved......in fact very few even bothered to discuss it.
This wasn't about moving your family halfway across the country, and it wasn't about climbing a clock tower with an AK ....it was just about saying something meaningful to government whether effective or ineffective or as of yet, just speculating the ability to do so....it seems no one is interested......
If we can't even get a foundling attempt at coherent action and focus going that would have costed a buck a week, or even the promise of a buck a week, how do we get people to risk their entire future and/or life savings?




 
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Roy J. Tellason

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FSP 2006 Deadline
« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2005, 05:19:15 pm »

Quote
Quote
New Hampshire is already taking in 20,000 annual relocators from Mass., N.Y., etc.--so what on
earth do a few thousand FSPers hope to accomplish as they dribble in over the next decade or two?
And the trouble with that is, according to a friend of mine who's a lifetime NH resident and FSP member, the MA & NY migrants are all fleeing the excessive state bureaucracy and high taxes and then discovering that NH doesn't have the services they "need".

So what do they do? Vote for higher taxes and nanny state laws. BS like making it illegal to drink anything (even water) while driving... Which is why, every time I drive across the state line I take a swig from the sports bottle of water I keep in the car.

The MA/NY refugees are also responsible for the plague of McMansions springing up in southern NH and driving up property prices. By the time I can afford to move, I won't be able to afford to move.
Can you say "Kalifornicatin',  eastern style"?

I thought you could...
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H.M. WoggleBug, T.E.

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« Reply #28 on: February 11, 2005, 06:40:19 pm »

Quote
Well, it's sad.

Seemed like a good idea, right up to the New Hampshire thing. I kinda felt bad about not signing up, until I saw that vote. Then I was glad, because it meant I hadn't made a promise I'd have to renege on.

Boston just hates that NH was picked, and he'll cherry pick his evidence to suit his thesis.

As usual, Mr. Party decided not to abide by his agreement to not attack the FSP.

Fact that he was too lazy to move his butt to anywhere far away shows exactly how committed he is to the cause of freedom. That is to say - not much.

All he can do is scream and bitch and moan about how sorry a choice NH is. Because it wasn't HIS choice.

Thanks Boston, I bet my wife that you'd crawl out and start shrieking again. I won $20.

All you nay-sayers and FSP bashers - thanks for your support. I don't see very much going on from the peanut gallery.

Bug
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ZooT_aLLures

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« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2005, 11:51:44 pm »

Bug,

Can you provide other evidence that points to a scenario contrary to the expressed by BTP?
Do you have a different set of numbers?

If you can, please do so, that we all might see both sides of the picture and thus make more educated decisions or form more enlightened opinions..........

Now both you guys have been picking at each other for quite a while for whatever reasons.......it's time to put the cards on the table.........
Put this age old pissing contest aside and stop to think about what you're BOTH trying to do and see if there's that much difference so as to justify being enemies........
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Even some cowboy and indian outlaws in the 1800's eventually stopped sleeping under buffalo skins, and came to town to entertain paying customers. For some I imagine the bruising of their ego never healed.

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